KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:58
Bob @...why commodity gold pricing is a better solution>(@...why commodity gold pricing is a better solution):
The speculative action on gold price is a result of the impending death ( real or perceived ) of the yellow metals currency or store of value use.
Gold is primarily used in jewellry ( 70% ) and industrial products. When the price of gold stabalizes on the basis of its real value - as a commodity - we can focus on the fundamentals of metal discovery, mining, refining costs and market demand, and lesser on the Gold Cartel and vagaries of international finance and economics. ( The Peter Lynch approach. )

I have been accused of repeating Andy Smith and Ted Arnold's opinions but I don't know ( or care to know ) who these people are.

When gold is free from the currency jugernaut it will resume a price dynamic that is in line with supplier costs and customer demand.
Speculation has stretched the yellow metals price and torn a few financial tendons. Speculators have seized the market with the backing of the CBs and they call the play.

Both world wars in this century began with the Allies taking severe losses in the early years before they rallied and won decisive battles to turn the tide and secure victory.

The war on gold was begun by strategic attacks by CBs and followed by the speculators and gold miner forward sales that fuel the fire.

Eventually the enemy will back off as gold survives worst case scenarios ( $250-$300 ) or 'battles' and enemy ( speculator ) support lines dwindle after the big guns ( metal funds/pros ) have worn out ( risk/return ratio becomes unfavourable ) .

This classic metaphor is best illustrated by the VC who bested the Yanks in Nam. The world's mightiest nation and air power could not beat a bunch of short scrawny guys crawling through jungles and underground tunnels with few resources.

The motto is that sometimes - against all odds - the big guys lose. I don't have short-term guesses on the price of gold but I hold junior gold stks ( BGO ) and will continue to do so unless the gold mining industry capitulates - then I would have no choice but to also surrender and take my losses.

until that time ....cheers


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:55
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
aarg ( should have been I've ) . Anyway, I find it odd for the Aussies to be dumping gold. Killing their mining industry?!

It seems mining is pretty important in RSA, Austraila, Canada, U.S. ( also
Russia, South America, and other parts of Africa but they wouldn't be expected to hold much reserves based on their economic situations ) .


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:54
Dana Deflation>(Deflation):
Puetz -- Thank you for your response. I was not aware that US bonds were hit in the 30's.

It may very well be an error to extrapulate the Japanese bond rally in a deflationary recession to what may happen in North America under similiar circumstances. Japan had the advantage of a powerful currency, low debt to service, and a trade surplus. It is the opposite in the US.

Credit risk may very well be an issue in Canada & the US if we hit a deflationary recession and tax revenues dry up.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:50
panda @blinded by science!>(@blinded by science!):
AOL and their ilk ( stock wise ) come under the heading of, Blinded by technology! O.K., it's a take off on an eighties song. The effect is the same, if it sounds too good to be true..... You'll find out in one of those brokerage statements sooner or later.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:50
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Should have written:

I read all the AOL etc.

Need to get some sleep ( big week ahead ) .


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:46
Vieserre home>(home):
MILHOUSE: Thanks for the information. Your comments on silver are compelling. I notice reports coming out of the East reflect a falling off in gold demand despite the falling price in gold with jewelry being remelted in Pakistan due to economic problems and Indian investors directing funds toward the stock market.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:44
panda @>(@):
I don't know if this was posted earlier or not, a story on the dismal outlook for SA gold shares.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/04/gldfy_war_1.html

So how does Western Deep figure in all of this? I never see them mentioned anywhere.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:42
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
I'll be posting my blue horse shoe pick around 9:45 ET Monday morning.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:41
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
I couldn't help all the AOL bashing and lawsuit threats. I find it strange that many analysts suggest AOL as a buy ( the stock ) . It seems like a dog with fleas to me ( especially over the long term ) . Oh well, you know those analyst ( recommended stocks they have so they can pump and dump and move on ) . You may even see them recommended gold stocks 6-9 months from now. : )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:34
panda @oh!>(@oh!):
you're = your in panda speak.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:33
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Milhouse: 6pak posted CB Gold Reserves in% Jul 05 10:43 and as million ounces at 00:24. Just happened to print'em! Here is aurophile post, Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:39
aurophile ( tedrake@ibm.net ) :
6Pak: Thanks for those numbers. Could you direct me to the source? Email or here is fine.
I have IMF numbers on millions of ounces held by each IMF member from 1975-93.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:32
panda @non-gold.high-tech.failure>(@non-gold.high-tech.failure):
While some are whining about ISPs, I will whine about software used to shut down computers from UPSs ( Uninterruptable Power Supplies ) .

The software works just fine as long as you don't need a modem on a serial port.

Oh, you need a modem. Well, just put in a loopback adapter.

Oh, now you're modem works, but you can't communicate on the Internet because of the loopback adapter.

Well, if you have a power failure, at least your operating system will be shut down in an orderly fashion along with any open applications. Then the PC will be powered down safely. Why you can even configure the software so that the PC will boot up on power recovery! Just think, no more crashes due to power failures during unattended operation!

Buy you still can't use the modem because of service conflicts on the serial ports and the loopback adapter.

But isn't it a great product!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:25
George Cole bottom?>(bottom?):
MILHOUSE: So Princeton says we either bottom next week or go much lower into early 1998. We shall see. I expect a bottom within the next few weeks. How low we will go is, as always, quite uncertain. APH has mentioned $314 and GLENN $313; these are in line with my own thinking.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:17
Bob @....check your calculation>(@....check your calculation):
Miro: The Aussie gold dump of 160 tonnes = about $2 Billion not $1.5 TRILLION. Your point is still well taken regarding the percentage drop in gold price but the value of gold is down about 20% over one year and about $35 above the March/85 low ( about $285 ) . Think of the values in real terms over the years and gold clearly is a big loser asset in comparison to other investments.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:17
panda @For.what.it's.worth(Not much!)>(@For.what.it's.worth(Not much!)):
Given golds recent performance, at the current rate of 'price' decline, gold should be at $298/oz. by the end of the year. Extrapolating further, by the end of 1998, it should be at $226/oz. This is based on a straight line decline, such as we have been witnessing. The good news is, by 2001 or so, gold should be about $10/oz. At this price, you could buy a lot of it. It worthless anyhow, right?

The above is an illustration of absurdity, by using absurdity. I hope. :- ) )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:08
Puetz @ CB gold holdings>(@ CB gold holdings):
Milhouse: In believe 6pak and Aurophile posted the gold holdings of various Central Banks since 1960. I think it was yesterday. Maybe they would repost them. Essentially, Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, and Belgium have sold all of their gold -- they have no more to sell. New Central Bank gold sales will have to come from other sources.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:08
panda @unhedged.producers (less than 18 mo. forward)>(@unhedged.producers (less than 18 mo. forward)):
Michael Chesser -- Unhedged producers make up the HUI index. More info can be found at http://www.amex.com/options/intro.htm#s_index

Scroll up or down and look for the HUI file. You will need Adobe Acrobat to see/download the file. If you don't have Adobe, you can jump to their URL from the AMEX site to download a copy of it.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 23:02
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Dana: In general, your 19:51 posting was good. However, there are two points I disagree with. 1 ) Baby boomers are not saving -- Instead, they are borrowing to accumulate holdings in stocks and bonds. There is a huge difference between borrowing ( speculating ) to acquire an asset and saving. 2 ) During deflation, credit-risk becomes an important factor in buying bonds. Very few people know, or have even researched what happened to US Government Bonds during the early 1930s. Because of the liquidity squeeze and credit-concerns, US Government bonds declined -- yes, I will repeat that -- they declined during the violent deflation of the early 1930s. That happened in spite of Federal Reserve attempts to jump-start the economy with lower short-term interest rates.


Investors often jump to the conclusion that deflation means lower gold prices and higher bond prices. The reality is just the opposite. Credit-risk and safety concerns typically cause investors to flee paper for the safety of the precious metals. Deflation is rearing its ugly head in a manner that hasn't been seen in over 50 years. Presently, most people are giving it the tame name of disinflation. But deflation is much nastier. Gold and silver are the only viable protection against deflation. You will get slaughtered if you invest in US Treasury bonds as a deflationary hedge.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:50
Puetz @ NEWS FLASH!>(@ NEWS FLASH!):
JUNK BONDS: The mania reaches new heights. The greater the basket-case, the more investors want to buy their debt! According to Barron's today: An unbelievable $17.3 billion of junk bonds hit the market last month, easily surpassing earlier records of $13 billion set in December 1987, and $9.5 billion in May 1996.

According to Barron's, July is set up to be another heavy month for junk bonds -- unless the market ( and irrational exuberance ) become saturated.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:43
Milhouse CB Gold>(CB Gold):

Steve Puetz - would you please let me know the time and date for Aurophile's post on CB gold stats.
Thanks, Milhouse


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:41
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Jesse @ 17:12 -- Great words of wisdom.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:40
Milhouse Credit where credit is due>(Credit where credit is due):

Front - although I am usually more than happy to take whatever credit comes my way I cannot, in all honesty, except the praise accorded to me in your recent post. The forecasts you referred to were extracted from info received from Princeton Economics. I generally try to state the source of my information - in this case I obviously forgot. My apologies.

BTW, I tend to rely on fundamental analysis only and take long term positions as I believe it is impossible to predict short term market movements with enough reliability to build substantial wealth. How Princeton is able to do so well for their clients ( including myself ) through the trading of futures and options is a complete mystery to me.

TTFN, Milhouse


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:39
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
BW: Good posting at 16:53. Some things have changed. Mass communications and instant communications are new during the last-half of the 20th century. Perhaps, using your words, the greatest con game in the history of the world is only possible because of television, the Internet, and instant communications. The brokerage houses and Washington bombard the media with bullish spins on every development. Nonetheless, the reality of our financial mess cannot be ignored permanently -- someday soon investors will wake up to reality.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:38
Speed @Abandon hope all ye that enter here>(@Abandon hope all ye that enter here):
Michael Chesser: The first thing that comes to mind is Go back it's a trap. Gold is falling, stocks are being hammered. Precious metal funds are down 20 to 30 percent with precious little hope for rescue. If that doesn't dissuade you then you've come to the right place. Forward selling is good right now for companies which contracted at $400 or thereabouts, because it will keep earnings high while the price of bullion is low. Read through the posts here for the last couple of days or more if you have time. This issue has come up before. Homestake ( HM ) is one company that has not completely forward sold their gold, and I believe Echo Bay may be another. These companies will be hurt the most as the price falls and will fare better than others when the price rises.
Be aware that the price of gold must rise about $80 before it matters.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:38
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:33
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Aurophile: Thanks for the Central Bank gold stats!!!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:31
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
hhhhhhhhhhhhh @ 16:23 -- You are correct, if gold was in a bull market the emphasis would have been on who bought the 167 tons of OZ gold. That's the difference between a bull and a bear.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:27
Milhouse @Princeton>(@Princeton):

To : Vieserre

A Special Report on gold and silver issued by Princeton in Jan 97 stated that critical support for gold was in the 325-331 price range and that gold would likely test this support in 1997. Further info issued in May stated that the most likely timing for a low in gold was early July ( ideally the week of the 7th ) or Q1 1998. If we get a monthly close on spot gold below 334 AND penetration of 320 AND a yearly close below 341, then the low in gold will be during Q1 98 in the 255-275 area. I should receive some more info from Princeton next week and will post a summary of their forecasts.

Note - Martin Armstrong is very bullish about the medium term prospects for gold, but is very negative on silver. He refers to silver as the commodity from hell and sees a greater probability of $3.25 before $6.00. He has been calling for gold to decline ahead of silver for some time with gold then recovering and the gold/silver ratio going over 100 during 1998.

My own opinion is that the fundamentals for silver are worse than those for gold. Digital cameras will take a significant amount of the market and this may be why large commercial buyers of silver are not concerned about falling inventories. Also, silver does not have the huge volume of forward sales above the current market which will be covered on a rally. There are many gold forward sales contracts which were established at prices above $400 and which would be closed out to continue the forward momentum of any substantial gold rally. Additionally, silver is not widely accumulated as money anymore and would not benefit to the same extent as gold with a loss in confidence in paper money.

Best regards, Milhouse


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:20
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Mooney, WW: I pay C$16.57 a month for unlimited access and it is no problem to connect. AOL was going to give me a months worth of their service but I had to connect to their US server. Estimated cost $10 per hour for long distance. I know we are polite but stupid not.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:16
trader ed traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):
My older son is a research oceanographer, and he told me yesterday that the indications are good for a rather hefty el nino to hit this winter ( Northern Hemisphere ) . He said that it is too early to be more specific, but suggested that I may want to look at what happened in the last significant el nino back in the early 80's, and take that into consideration in my investments. This backs up earlier media reports on the possibility of an el nino, but I would rather trust my son's judgement than media reports, as I do not consider the media to be especially accurate in any of their reporting.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:06
Michael Chesser chesser@scescape.net>(chesser@scescape.net):
I want to profit if gold goes up, and the easiest way to participate in gold if thru gold mutual funds. But recently I've read that most gold mining companies sell forward, ie, sell their production years in advance, and therefore with their stock I might not benefit from a run-up in the price of the metal. Can mining companies which do not sell forward be identified? Do they all sell in advance now? What to do?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 22:01
Speed @El Niño>(@El Niño):
Trader Ed: The early 80's saw massive hurricane Allan, and killer freezes all the way to the Rio Grande Valley. Perhaps some oil and energy services stocks would be in order?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:56
Amnesty @ the edge>(@ the edge):
After the diabolical antics of those dudes in OZ I will let these dudes
have the last word on the matter. Might just explain some of the events
at Kitco over the last few days. http://preprints.cern.ch/cgi-bin/send_ps_frame.sh.cgi?//archive/electronic/hep-ex/9707/9707003.ps.gz


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:51
trader ed traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):
My older son is a research oceanographer, and he told me yesterday that the indications are good for a rather hefty el nino to hit this winter ( Northern Hemisphere ) . He said that it is too early to be more specific, but suggested that I may want to look at what happened in the last significant el nino back in the early 80's, and take that into consideration in my investments. This backs up earlier media reports on the possibility of an el nino, but I would rather trust my son's judgement than media reports, as I do not consider the media to be especially accurate in any of their reporting.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:47
Vieserre home>(home):
MILHOUSE: I have seen it posted elsewhere that Princeton Research has called for a secular low in gold next week providing there is sufficient pessimisim. Owing to your earlier imput on Princeton, have you heard of this through your fund or other contacts.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:46
Plaintalker No AOL for me ever>(No AOL for me ever):
WW Having used local Isp for years, available most everywhere with unlimited usage for $18 -$20 month and being very well satisfied, I recently visited my daughter who lives on LOng Island and had occasion to use their AOL service. 20 or so junk mail arrivals every day, every screen cluttered up by advertising, each and every URL requiring at least one extra step, NO WAY.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:45
Dana Deflation II>(Deflation II):
Panda -- Thank you for your response and for your ongoing 30 year bond charts. You have a great point. I have convinced myself of the deflationary recession senario and am trying not to become irrationally exuberant with bonds because I have the gut feeling I am missing a part of the equation.

Some further random deflationary thoughts:
-with free flow of capital an unskilled worker in Europe/North America bring the same thing to the economic table as an unskilled worker in China - prices ( wages ) will converge
-the establishment of the bond futures exchange in Chicago during 1979 has since eliminated inflation. The slightest signs of inflation are instantly squeezed out of the system
-because governments cannot borrow at 6% and reinvest at 0 forever the welfare state is toast
-consumers are maxed with credit so the current credit based financial/economic expansion will soon hit the wall - bankruptcies are currently going through the roof
- many use a flow up funds arguement to explain why the stock market is booming, but the only way a market can go straight up is with leverage - I would not want to be around when this obvious leverage is unwound
-note all efficient frontier calcualtions and the resulting recommendation to have 70%+ of a portfolio in equities is based on 50 years of inflationary data not deflationary
-the mechanics of the 'normal' business cycle are different than what has happened over the last 50 years - Use Japan, 19th century US, technology, real estate in the 80's as an example of what to expect - abnormally high profits lead to capital spending which leads to overcapacity - price wars eliminate profits - capital spending is eliminated and the survivors buy out the bankrupt - exhange of capital is common but the demand for money falls so the price ( interest rates ) must fall - this is the opposite to an inflationary recession where high rates slow done the economy
-I recently read a report from a leading US research firm - of all the 60+ sectors they covered, only two could currently report positive pricing power: potash and oilfield services

I would certainly appreciate any feedback on how to profit from this. Some combiantion of gold, gold stocks at 50% of book value, bonds, and put warrants?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:37
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net):
WW: I just tried to email you but realized you had quit AOL. I just added AOL @ 9.99 per month over my smartworld isp. My daughter
likes the AOL format and email and chat modes etc. She has some friends
who collectively chat for hours ( when she can dynamite me out of this
comfy chair ) . My ISP is paid for so it's no big deal. I paid
smartworld $115 total a few months ago and now they have gotten past
their growing pains so I can get on line easily. It's free until the
advertising quits paying the bills. A couple of more months and I will
break even. You are correct in saying that the instructions on AOL are
not apparent. I had to dig them out and I knew what I was looking for.
I dropped Compuserve for gouging me on rates. AOL is looking at buying
Compuserve again. What a combination!

I re-read your last and agree that it is tough to remain bullish. I
quit telling people what I'm invested in. Even the know-nothings are
reading about gold! I just talked with a neighbor who is an expert on
silver numismatics and he doesn't think gold bullion will ever come back. I guess that leaves it up to you and me!!! One day we could own it all.
@ .10 per oz. oh well. I am irrationally convinced that at least one
conspiracy theory, war or market crash will actually happen and save us
and make us heros. : ) Go George Soros!



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
WW - Want to know why I'm always happy? I pay my provider the equivalent of just about exactly $20. U.S. per month for UNLIMITED access. I never have trouble connecting and the download time is VERY fast even though I only have a 486. AOL is a definite rip.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 21:09
Milhouse Deflation ? I think not !>(Deflation ? I think not !):

To : Dana

Your 19:51 post regarding deflation was interesting. My comments :
1. Deflation is not the norm - it has not occurred in the US since the 1930s
2. The info I've seen is that US savings rates are currently near record lows
3. There is no evidence that governments are reducing deficit spending. Federal debt increased by $330B in 1996 ( only the reported deficit is decreasing )

IMHO, if you think we are headed for deflation, then don't buy gold. However, my belief is that the US money supply will be increased to whatever level it needs to be to avoid a recession during the next 2 years. There is no objective limitation on how much money can be introduced into the economy.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 20:53
WW @New England>(@New England):
I just left AOL. My Neighbor was barbequing and we started to talk about internet service. I told him that I had signed up for an offer from AoL for unlimited access for a year for 59 bucks. He looked at me in horror and said he did the same thing and ended up with an internet bill of 1300. Apparently in the offer it said you must get another ISP and then access AOL if you didnt ( this importantly was stated nowhere and probably why they promise refunds ) .It was not obvious that you needed another ISP therefore easy to not do so and think the lowball was a mkting deal. Why would I go out and pay another ISP to access to AOL and then pay 59 to AOL. The representative was very kurt and I told him I wanted a refund/ he finally relented but said even though he promises the refund there were no guarantees. I called the company that takes the charges and they said there were another 60 of charges which AOL ( the rep ) did not mention. I cancelled our credit card and put all AOL previous charges in dispute/Where is the press on this practice. If they try to affect my credit rating they WILL BE IN COURT!! with a countersuit and if they have done this to others a class action! Unbelieveable!!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 20:48
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com):
Could Gold be making a 1985 type bottom? Based on a weekly close the 14 week rsi in Gold on 1/4/85 was 21% one of the lowest readings in 20 years. The close that week was $300, on 3/8/85 the rsi was 27% and the market closed at $288 and traded down to $281 that week. That low marked the bottom of a multi year advance. On 2/7/97 the weekly rsi was 13% the lowest in 20 years with gold at 343. This week the rsi is at 26% and about $20 lower in price, similiar to 1985. This market could still go down to $314 base Aug.. Thank Goodness for stops. Being stopped at 336 doesn't look so bad now. ABX - Based on the Canadian market Fri, ABX could open 1.50-2.00 lower, this would put it though support. If it stays down there I would consider selling my postion. Luckly I'm short Nov Beans from 6.60. Going down to Texas for a couple weeks to check on the kid and inlaws/outlaws. Good trading everyone.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 20:12
panda @>(@):
Dana -- If the government were solvent, and did not depend so heavily on their, 'blue sky', income tax collection schemes, perhaps bonds would be a good deal now. BUT, If deflation comes, how does the government pay the bond holders? With more expensive Dollars? Given the current vilification theme of this era, I think bond holders will be portrayed as fat cats living off of the sweat of someone elses brow. This will then lay the ground work, not for defaults, but screwing the bond holders good. This could be done through taxes or, 'debt extension', or something else. I don't make a living at politics, so my imagination is somewhat limited in this area. :- ) )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 19:51
Dana Deflation?>(Deflation?):
My personal viewpoint is that we are headed for a deflationary recession. ( depression? )
The current stock market is is still linked to interest rates ( ie:bad news for the economy is good news for stocks ) but I would suggest not for much longer. This is an inflationary phenomenon and the pundits that are suggesting blue skies forever because they can not see anything that would kick up rates which would slow down the economy and then bring down the market. This is the inflationary recession model that we are all used to but it is fighting the last war.

Note Japan's deflationary recession: stocks are still at 50% of 1989 levels during a period of not just falling but collapsing interest rates. If you bought equities on interest rate drops in Japan over the last eight years you would have been slaughtered.

Interest rates will become delinked from the stock market when profits begin to freefall.

Some random deflationary observations: ( sorry for repeating anything previously posted )
-deflation is the norm: is it not the roll of capitalists to beat up each other and reduce prices? Inflation traditionaly occurs during times of war and deflation during times of peace.
-with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 the worlds supply of land doubled; we now compete with highly educated and productive former communists and east asians who works for a fraction of first world labour costs - both issues are very deflationary
-baby boomers are saving more and spending less as retirement rears its ugly head ( you mean $50000 is not going to cover 35 years of retirement?! )
-governments are beginning to reduce or eliminate deficit spending - less supply of bonds and more demand for savings ( not investment ) instruments means lower interest rates
-the typical age of household formation is 25 and when demand for housing and consumer durables kicks in - was anyone born in 1972?
-watch S&P500 top line earnings instead of just bottom line - many are starting to fall
-the historical return demanded by a long bond holders is inflation + 3 - this implies that current real rates on bonds are high and have huge downside potential as deflation kicks in - I would argue that current monetary policy is at best neutral and probably restrictive - if the economy does cool how low would interest rates have to go to be stimulative? As Japan has found out, low rates can be like pushing on a string.
-advances in technology and productivity have also been deflationary
-the US stock markets are parabolic and in uncharted valuation territory. With valuations stretched to the limit any reductions in earnings will lead to the inevitable collapse. The resulting negative wealth effect will be deflationary.

My question is how do we profit from a senario like this? Clearly equities and real estate should be avoided. I am currently 10% gold but what do you do with the rest of your money? Can anybody give any reasons not to back the truck up and buy long bonds? What will it take and what is the probability that gold will rally in a deflationary environment.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 19:35
ACW ///////////////>(///////////////):
To All:

Sundays Melborne Age a leading Australian Newspaper printed the following:

http://www.theage.com


Swipe for Reserve on gold sale

By HELEN SHIELD of the Sunday Age

THE World Gold Council has taken a swipe at Australia's
central bank, accusing it, and, indirectly, Treasurer Peter
Costello, of shooting the local gold industry in the foot.

Responding to the sale by the Reserve Bank of Australia of
two-thirds of its gold reserves in just six months, the council,
which represents heavyweight gold miners from around the
globe, warned it would have wider negative consequences for
the Australian economy.

Speaking from Geneva, chief executive Elliot Hood told `The
Sunday Age': ``You ( Australia ) are shooting yourself in the foot.
Your second-largest export sector has just been shot seriously in
the foot.''

The Reserve Bank sale prompted a sell-off in Australian gold
stocks and wiped $US10 an ounce from the gold price, which
ended Friday at $US323. In a statement announcing the sale,
Costello said gold no longer played a significant role in the
international financial system.

``Before proceeding with the sales, the RBA sought and
received my approval to reinvest the realised gains in other
official reserve assets,'' Costello said, adding that the sale
proceeds, an estimated $2 billion, could have been returned as a
dividend to consolidated revenue.

Hood said concern about central bank gold sales had diminished
the value of public and private gold holdings, with an especially
negative impact on gold producers in Africa, Latin America and
the Pacific Rim, where Australia was trying to take a leadership
role in APEC.

He warned that if the Reserve Bank needed to replenish its gold
stocks, it would have to buy from local producers, reducing their
foreign earnings. He said the buying, using Australian dollars,
would create local inflation.

``In any event, the actual impact of the sale has already
depressed the gold price from the middle of last year,'' Hood
said. ``So you could sit down and calculate what that's cost
Australian producers in dollars and cents.''

Locally, gold players are dubious about the wisdom of the
Reserve Bank move.

Great Central Mines chairman and Melbourne Football Club
president Joe Gutnick described the central banker's gold sale
as ``disappointing and bizarre . . . It just sends a very negative
message to the Australian gold industry, which is our
second-biggest export after coal''.

WMC general manager corporate development Chris Leptos
said the miner, formerly Western Mining, was deeply concerned
about the effect this sale could have on the West Australian gold
mining industry. ``We are a big firm in the gold industry, but a lot
of gold players are pretty much in the same postion. There are a
lot of new developments coming up that are good for the
country which may not now see the light of day,'' he said.
``Many of those are being developed by small and
medium-sized producers who do not have the economies of
scale to cope with low gold prices.''

But pollster and major shareholder in Haoma Gold Gary
Morgan said the RBA had made the correct decision.
``It doesn't make sense for Australia to hold gold in banks when
we have plenty of it underground''.

He said the council, which markets gold for jewellery, needed to
focus on marketing gold for a broader range of uses.

The Treasurer yesterday declined to comment further.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 19:34
GLOBAL MINERALS&TECHNOLOGIES gmr97@usa.net>(gmr97@usa.net):
Get your Free Newsletter on Resource and Tech Stocks.We go against
the majority and profile solid Companies.Email for your FREE subscription
to gmr97@usa.net or visit our Website at www.globalminerals.com
regards
GMT


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 19:07
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
This was posted at another site:

pmdhrh: . . . . Sat, Jul 5, 5:13PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
newsflash....Live Martians Found! Their 1st question ... How do we buy Spoos?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 18:56
Speed @home>(@home):
mikeharry: If the price of gold does go down to $200 or below, I for one will buy all I can, but I don't believe it will happen.

In the FWIW dept: The North Koreans crown or inaugurate their new leader on the 8th. The Syrians have opened three roads to Iraq after closing their border during the Iran-Iraq war. This is in response to a new Israel-Turkey alliance developing. While we mourn ( or enjoy ) the protracted, serious illness of gold, the rest of the world keeps moving along.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 18:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKEHARRY: They are buying for this reason. Perspectives: Flawed visionary who burst
his own bubble

Originally published: SATURDAY MAY 31 1997

By Antoin E. Murphy

Convicted Scottish murderer and prime minister of France causes Europe's
biggest stock market crash. Such could have been the melodramatic
headline of a gazette in 1720. Nine years later the headline might have
read: Man who once controlled half of North America dies in Venice.

Both headlines would have summed up aspects of the extraordinary career
of the economist and policymaker, John Law, who is in urgent need of
rediscovery for his contributions to an imperfect science, if not for his
outrageous escapades. The 18th century economists were colourful
personalities - none more so than Law, whose name is still pronounced
Lass by the French. Alas, poor Lass.

Many have lined up over the centuries to attack the Scotsman. Law has
been denigrated by Montesquieu, Voltaire and Marx. The latter described
Law as combining the nicely mixed character of swindler and prophet.
One of the few writers to counter this trend was Joseph Schumpeter who
placed Law in the front ranks of monetary theorists of all time.

Born into a goldsmith's family in Edinburgh in 1671, Law's spiritual birth
was really 300 years later - in 1971. This was when the last vestiges of the
gold standard were removed from the international monetary system by the
US's decision to abandon the policy of guaranteeing the dollar in terms of
gold.

Law had the foresight to realise there was no need for the monetary system
to be anchored to precious metals such as gold and silver. When prime
minister of France, he wanted to leave it free of specie ( or coin ) ,replacing
gold and silver with banknotes. He also attempted to convert France's
debt into equity in the Mississippi Company.

He was an early incarnation of Michael Milken, the man who made the
junk bond famous and went to prison for securities fraud in 1990. Law
attempted to convert government debt into junk equity. He was so
successful that the British authorities, fearful of lagging behind France in
financial innovation, copied part of his system by permitting the South Sea
Company to take over the bulk of the British government's debt. This led
to the South Sea Bubble of 1720, when the company's shares rose from
£130 in January to £1,050 in June.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 18:13
mikeharry fear@greed.com>(fear@greed.com):
with all the doom & gloom surrounding mellow yellow, widely publicized etc.. you would expect a sudden and sharp sell off very near term, ie. this week. I mean, like $100 US/oz down. Why not? If gold really sucks, and is useless refuse, how can the price hold in this light? Even perma bulls would want to wait for the soon to be had bargain prices on the horizon. Scoop of Kruggies for 200 $. Where on earth is the support for these inflated prices of 324$ going to come from given the big volume on the LME? who is nuts enough to buy? and why are they buying?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:50
Shareholder Victory funds>(Victory funds):
From recent semi annual report of Victory Funds:
... There is also some evidence that historically, periods of high valuations have coincided with periods of high volitality. Although past performance is no indication of future results, it is well worth keeping in mind that diversification is one of the best defenses against volitality. Including up 10% of net worth in gold!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:39
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: Your 14:14 post was a good one. I have been re-reading The Great Reckoning ( Davidson, Rees-Moog ) Chapter 11 covers Deflation quite well. For those who don't have access to the book. I am very briefly going to summarize the Deflation warning signs: 1Rising percentage of debt to GNP. 2.High returns on forms of investment. 3. Debt compounding faster than income. 4. Falling ratio of M-2 to the Monetary Base. 5 Falling ratio of money supply to debt. 6. M-3 more than 12 times Treasury Gold supply. 7. Overextended collateral. 8 Foreign debt defaults. 9. Financial scandals


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:36
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
George S. Cole:

Respectfully, I personally agree with your previous statement..
But if there are so many preparing for this inevitability doesn’t
this suggest short term that we are not yet to the precipice..

The mutual fund mania is a mindless way of investing. Using
the terms long term, 10%, 20% corrections. As reasons not
only to stay long but add to positions.. I believe if most Gold
investors were only -20% in so many days they would be concerned
but not devastated.. Many mutual fund equity investors have 20%
plus gains this year alone..

I don’t believe it is that easy.. I do think this is a mindless mania but
manias can go far beyond all rational thinking. The market is very
tough for the intellectuals who know the truth.. Most investing is not
done with any real knowledge of the facts.. Me included..





Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:22
George S. Cole corrections>(corrections):
NOTAGOLDBUG; I agree with you that investors will sit out a 10% correction. We have had two corrections of this magnitude already and the market came roaring back after both.

But a 20% drop would be another matter entirely. A very large proportion of today's mutual fund investors have never seen a decline of this magnitude and in surveys most say they never expect to see such a drop in their lifetimes. Also important to consider that 401K investors can sell their stock funds WITHOUT INCURRING ANY TAX LIABILITIES ON THE PROFITS.

Signs of caution are beginning to appear at the mutuals. Vanguard just published a booklet,Bear Markets -- A Historical Perspective on Market Downturns. From the introduction:

This brochure provides some perspective on past bear markets and offers several guidelines on preparing your investment program for the next -- AND INEVITABLE -- extended market downturn. Some in the industry know this blowoff will end very badly and are moving to prepare shareholders for rough sledding.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:14
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

aurophile:

Also, you must know I only trade ABX.. I was looking for weak support just
above US$20.00 and see better support just below US$19.00 ( maybe as low
as 18.50.. ) So this could happen soon and I will go long again for the bounce.
But I’m very cautious and respectful of overwhelming market pressures..

There is a slight chance ABX will go to US$16.00.. This would be a 50% loss
in approx. 6 months. Some fib numbers both in time and price suggest this.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:12
jesse jj@bravo.com>(jj@bravo.com):
bw,
i agree with you. i accumulate gold for it's time proven value. gold's price in fiat money ( dollars ) is irrelevant to me in the short run. i guess gold is my savins and i'm an accumulator not a speculator.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 17:00
George S. Cole confidence>(confidence):
Aurophile: Agree you you absolutely that confidence in the stock maket is VERY HIGH and rising right now. A key factor behind gold's miserable performance. Supports my argument that gold will remain in the doldrums until investor confidence starts to sag and fear starts to displace greed as the emotion of the day.

There undoubtedly will be some pretty heavy selling in the gold shares Monday. But the Australians, South Africans, and Canadians already plunged on Friday when the U.S. markets were closed. I doubt if these will go down much more in the immediate future unless bullion dives again.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:56
Miro @gold is dead, demand/supply, etc>(@gold is dead, demand/supply, etc):
Somebody please help me here. I am just trying to apply some logic to
this talk about supply demand .. gold is dead ... has no value anymore
.. etc. ) The following numbers may not be accurate to the last penny
but I guess they tell me something.
AU dumps 160 ton of gold - isn’t it about 6% of world production?
Somebody spends $1.5 trillion to buy it.
Gold price drops by about 2%.
If there is no demand and gold has no value anymore how come there
is a buyer? How come somebody is willing to waste $1.5 trillion for
a worthless commodity which is heading South? How come price of gold
did not drop by 10 %?!

Looks like major gold holders - CBs dumped in recen years a significant
part of their gold holding but price of gold is pretty steady - holding
in $300 price range - no decline in 30-50% range?

If demand/supply law applied just like for other product the picture
should be different.

On the other hand Intel, Dell, MSFT, etc. announce that they may not
reach a projected revenues and price of stock drops by 10 - 20% a couple
of weeks! If the market for their product decreased by 6% you would see
the price of their stock decreasing at least by 30%.

As far as I am concerned gold is not doing so bad in nobody wants you
anymore market.
Gold still represents much more than commodity driven by market
demand/supply.

JMHO - Miro


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:53
bw Re: NotaGoldbug, gold acquisition>(Re: NotaGoldbug, gold acquisition):
I believe vronsky is refering to the cash purchases of gold. Gold was an excellent long term cash buy at 360 it is here at 325 and will be at 300. I have been buying for cash all the way down and expect to be quite pleased with my average cost in three years or so. When the cabal driving down the price of gold have finished their accumulation of the weak hands gold, ( by the looks of this site they have done an excellent propaganda job ) perhaps about the same time paper becomes suspect, then gold will also be a very good short term speculation. Dont be afraid for those buying gold here. Fear instead for those who have most of their wealth in a form that weighs less than one gram. After all this is the biggest con game in the history of the world.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:41
MIB MJ-12@The Limo>(MJ-12@The Limo):

Anyone seen a couple of crash test dummies? Heh heh.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:41
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Aurophile:

You ask me what I think.. Honestly, I do not know. But given further weakness in
gold and strength in the market averages ( or just sideways action in the major averages ) gold holders will get more and more discouraged.. You mentioned that
many are down from the 96 top and used this as your averaged in point.. Well my
assumption would go a step further.. many have held gold much longer and even
if its only a portion of their portfolio have ridden this up and down and up and
down with more downs than ups.. These are the ones I’m worried about.. The
long term weak longs.. The Central banks are one of these..

I may sound arrogant to many but I do not yet know how to predict anything…
I trade with my technical indicators and sometimes I get bruised and sometimes
I do quite well..

I do want to add and have been thinking on this for a while.. I sometimes question
Vronsky. And, I believe, this is a short term good thing.. But like in Jesus time
( and buy the way I’m not deeply religious ) he spoke of good honest things but was eventually shunned.. Even by his most avid followers.. I believe the essence of what
Vronsky says is true.. His timing may be off… Or maybe the truth is just not what
the masses what to hear or believe…



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:40
Bob @...cost is relevant and jewellry supply is not so relevant (yet)>(@...cost is relevant and jewellry supply is not so relevant (yet)):
The cost of gold production is important as it offer the gold miner an opportunity cost to make or buy gold. The unknown forces that prevail will turn gold prices around when the producers decide to close mines and buy physical gold -- and then, brothers and sisters, the shorts will be caught crying all the way to the bank -- off the remainder few CB's who haven't blown their lodes.

The cummulative supply of gold in jewellry will not enter the primary market unless ( of course ) the price of gold rises sufficiently to encourage owners to sell their gold to refiners -- would bart really want to buy jewellry to refine given the composite mix of material found in ornamental metals ?

The contrarian indicators of massive press doom and gloom has just been announced. Relief may be on the way next week....wait and see.

Cheers


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:33
Donald @Home>(@Home):
DANA: A very helpful post. I am going to save that one.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:32
Jack nomercy>(nomercy):

nomercy: Thank you for the fine article by Tomkins. Thanx; Bart for this great site, and thank god for all the fine posts over the past two days.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:26
Bob @..better late than never...the Gold Institute steps up to bat>(@..better late than never...the Gold Institute steps up to bat):
What ?! Somemore good news .... lookout below !
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/07/05/y0023_1.html


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:23
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
George Cole: I don't know if you saw my 1414 post, but McCullin ( UBS ) remarks in Randall Forsyth's column about the two-year note/ fed funds spread prove to my satisfaction that that spread AND gold are measures of confidence ( or lack thereof ) in the stock market than anything else.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:23
hhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh>(hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh):
add on:

If we were in a bull mrkt, the spin would have been, xyz central bank ( s ) bought gold 167 tons of Oz gold during the last 6 months.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:21
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
NotaGoldbug 15:37 : YOur question is timely - I was thinking about this
last night. My personal feelings are that I hope I never ever need to
exchange my gold ( stuff ) to live. Ever! I believe the demand for my skills
are inversely related to the price of gold. I can maintain an extremely
high standard of living as long as $$ keeps flowing into the R&D budgets.
The only time in my life that the $$ has stopped flowing was around 1980.

Yes, I've missed out on Microsoft and Intel - I knew about them long
before they were household names. I sleep well every night knowing the
downside risk to my quality of life is very little. I will keep adding
to my hoard of PMs and I will keep speculating in the future markets and
I will keep on consulting on the cutting edge of technology and I will
keep on golfing the lovely golf courses of Scotsdale and Scotland.
Depressed? No not today.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:20
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
NotaGoldbug, small community indeed! I hold my gold well, she's got gold hair, but we're both getting a bit of that silver too! Speaking of which, I really have to go now but would be interested in your opinion of silver 1-3 months? I believe it will hold better than gold, smaller supply no CB's. BBL


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:20
Lefty Population Increase>(Population Increase):
Roebear and others: The increase in population does not
necessarily mean an increase in demand for gold.
The general population consumes very
little gold and has little taste to horde gold at this time. I
have suggested the demand curve has shifted to lower levels as
the Central Banks has decided to hold less gold at these prices...

I would also like to suggest that producers have also shifted the
supply curve to output more gold at current prices. This is
accomplished by technology. There cost of production has decreased.
Never before have I seen so many quartly reports saying they will
be increasing production. Look at all the gold mining companies
being traded that do not even product any gold.

I see no meaningful or lasting increase in price...

Comments Please....


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:16
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
NotaGoldbug: I think it is a fair question whether those holding gold and gold stocks are near the panic phase. Bullion is down 22% from the February 1996 top and the XAU is down 39%. I don't imagine that everyone bought everything they own at the top, but assuming a diversified holding ( i.e., not all Bre-X or all Bema ) probably a lot of people are close to the 20% loss level which you mention as what most stock market investors would suffer without panicking. Another factor in this is what percentage of net worth is in gold-related investments. Is it a small portion for diversification or is it a major part? If it's a large part, which could be true for many here, the opportunity cost of seeing the stock market UP 50% since the start of 1996 while their gold investments are down 20%+ could be the factor which is causing or could cause panic. Jeez, I missed the whole rise in stocks which is continuing and gold is STILL going down. Get me OUT!!!!!!!!!! This could very well happen on Monday. Or maybe happened on Thursday, although that was said to have been one or a very few sellers on Comex. What do you think?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:12
Dana Cost of Production>(Cost of Production):
The price of gold is a function of many variables but certainly the cost of production is one of them. Costs are very relevant to the gold producer and anyone investing in gold stocks. Company operating costs may not impact demand but will ultimately impact supply. Shifts in the supply curve can impact prices just as much as shifts in demand.

To So'ham 07:33 - I think the confusion over different reported statistics is the difference between cash operating costs and total operating costs.

For example, Q1'97 average cash operating costs for large and mid cap North American producers was US$234. Large caps averaged US$224 and mid caps averaged US$278.

When non cash items such as depreciation, amortization, and reclamation costs are added in the average increases to US$309.

My earlier post regarding average costs of US$317 was a world statistic, not just North American producers.

On a different note, a thank you to all for some very insightful contributions.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:11
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Old Gold, you said:

NOTAGOLDBUG: I think you are right that many long-term gold holders will be bailing out in the near future. Probably just before the next gold bull begins

Yes, this has been my point all along.. The many will parish while the few reap
the spoils..



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
South Africa: Golds fall sharply

SATURDAY JULY 5 1997

Shares in Johannesburg rattled lower for the third session running, with
sentiment mostly depressed by a further severe shakeout for golds in
reaction to the slide in the bullion price to a 12-year low.

The golds index tumbled almost 4 per cent after bullion crashed lower
following a steep decline overnight in New York.

Dries slipped R1.15 to R30 and Western Areas fell 50 cents to R31.5.
Vaal Reefs shed R7.50 at R221 and Eastvaal touched R4.18 before
closing off 34 cents at R4.46. At the close, the golds index was off 33.1 at
952.1.

The upsets on the golds pitches cast a deep cloud over the rest of the
market. It's been a black day in spite of the lack of volume. There's been
no end of profit-taking in golds, said one broker.

Industrials came off 27.9 to 8,801.9 and the all-share index ended 35.2
lower at 7,368. Norwich Holdings was the day's most active stock, adding
10 cents to R8.40.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:07
OLD GOLD Bailing Out>(Bailing Out):
NOTAGOLDBUG: I think you are right that many long-term gold holders will be bailing out in the near future. Probably just before the next gold bull begins.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:07
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
97 = 98! Time to go! ( If I'd missed that date it would've been worse than shorting PL! ) BBL


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:07
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
To George S. Cole:

Agreed.. The myth that gold is an inflation indicator will live on
forever.. How it got started and how it lives on I just cannot
fathom.. Of course, I do not give much merit to intra market analysis
as a whole.. Gold, to me, stands on its own..


Roebear:

Actually, it is ½ platinum.. ( I fudged a little ) .. :D.. But honestly, gold
and platinum is a unusually attractive combination. Very 90’s
( oh, and, congratulations!! Were a small community )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:07
hhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhh>(hhhhhhhhhhhhh):

Golds increasing supply? What about the increasing supply of stocks, bonds, currency? Gold is going down not because of increasing supply, but because no one wants it. We are in a bear mrkt until we aren't. Since the OZ decided to swap their gold to someone else; you can look at the transaction two ways, bullish or bearish. It would be interesting to see who or what the counter party was in that transaction. Japan, maybe? Also, there is usually one big winner in a poker game and as the old saying goes,if you are in a poker game and can't figure out who the patsy is; it's you!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 16:03
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
NotaGoldbug, Our 25th is coming up early 97 and I might do that. Looks like I shoulda got it early though !: ) ) But I didn't know about Shibui!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:59
George S. Cole gold and inflation>(gold and inflation):
Chuck: I don't think the Fed uses gold as a major inflation indicator anymore. Unit labor costs much more important. They are more aware than most of the relentelss CB attack which has driven it down. Some influential economists such as Larry Kudlow and ex-governor Wayne Angell still harp about the gold price being the ultimate inflation indicator. But they have few followers in the financial community.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:57
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

To Roebear:

Buy platinum.. ( I did, for my wives 25th wedding anniversary ring.. )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:56
Auric Fair Dinkum>(Fair Dinkum):

NotaGoldbug-A gentlemen's wager? I say Spot Gold hits $450 or better between now and December 31, 1998. If I am wrong my gain will be miniscule. If correct, the gain will be most rewarding. I jumped in while the Aussies and Dutch were selling. I took the plunge.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:53
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
To all supply-siders: While most gold mined is still available in coin or bullion, amounts lost to jewelry/electronics are real and would not be available under what $500 -$700? On the demand side, what about population growth. Population has doubled has gold supply? When everyone gets rich on stocks what do you expect them to do with all their money?
!: ) )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:52
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

To Old Gold:

Baron Rothschild also said I never buy bottoms and I never sell tops


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:48
Chuck chuckf@mich.net>(chuckf@mich.net):
The Fed and Greenspan use the price of gold as an inflation indicator.
Stteve Puetz says deflation is already here. Perhaps the declining price of gold indicated severe deflation on the horizon and stock market correction-crash soon.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:47
Donald @Home>(@Home):
OLD GOLD: Yes he said that but he was talking about the S&P, not gold.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:43
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com):
NotaGoldbug,
I predict gold at $200/oz. and $500/oz. I will be correct on both accounts in my lifetime - guaranteed! It's that easy to make predictions!!! Everybody is right at some point in time.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:39
OLD GOLD PANIC>(PANIC):
Panic! Blood in the Streets! Capitulation! Serious talk of $150! $250 a virtual certainty! Didn't Baron Rothschild say fortunes can be made in times like this by those who keep a calm head and their eye on the ball.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:37
NotaGoldbug Sunny, Oregon.com!>(Sunny, Oregon.com!):
There something I would dearly love to know about some
the honest participants of this site.. I believe many holding
gold or gold related investments are not just a bit uneasy
about the overall action in this commodity over the past
year.. Especially in the light of the stock market averages..

Now, many are predicting a melt down in the overall market
and use this as justification for their gold holdings. I believe
that others, even as new as they are to the stock market, do
anticipate 10 to 20 percent corrections and will stay the
course when these occur. This is only speculation on my
part…

I also believe the gold and gold related investment holders
are at much more risk of bailing than the others in the major
equity markets.. They have been the most battered while watching
others make fortunes. This is very depressing psychologically.
Gold is getting the four letter word status among many honest holders..

I ask you long holders; don’t you feel this is getting the best of
you? I’m only trying to be honest.. Gold has been a pitiful investment.

Just as many look for a huge bail out in the major equity markets I
believe this could be happening to the gold market. Kind of weird
to be happening to the soothsayers of doom…

This will be an opportunity for some..






Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:36
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Donald, I do not know about French mattresses, but mine will be too lumpy to sleep on at US$127 gold!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:31
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
NotaGoldbug: Thanks for the comment. Coming from you who predicted this outcome long, long ago, it is a compliment indeed. My hat's off to you!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:30
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For Steve
Sorry I mixed you up with scott. Can you expand on the little story
about the frenchman that says gold goes to 300 in a fortnight and 130 by
September ( long term?- 3 months is long term ) - please tell me
more - who is this frenchman Was his name Bernatz was he trying to
sell a funny machine that you put dirt in


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Roebear: No. Lets call it the Rip Van Winkle Ratio You set it up, go to sleep for 17 years, take profits and reverse it, then sleep for another 17 etc. Re the French Connection and US$127. If you think a lot of gold came out of Australia this week, how much do you think would come out of French mattresses before we hit that price?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:13
Auric Re-14:59>(Re-14:59):

NotaGoldbug--My time horizon is 3 to 5 years. I am using this time to accumulate. Your time horizon seems to be shorter term You may be right.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 15:09
Lefty Cost of Production is IRRELEVANT>(Cost of Production is IRRELEVANT):
The supply of gold is always increasing as the commodity is mined.
The yearly production only increase the world supply. Gold is never
consumed such as is oil or corn. Therefore looking at the
cost of production is irrelevant. We saw this in the mid part
of this century. It is mostly the change in demand for gold that will
determine wide price changes. We are now witnessing a shift
in the demand curve for gold as CB have reduced the amount of
gold the wish to own.

Until the demand curve shifts in the other direction we will
not see a meaning increase in the price of gold.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:59
nailz 20 YEAR AGO PRICE>(20 YEAR AGO PRICE):
EARL and ALL......On July 5th, 1977, silver closed at US$4.40 and gold closed at US$141.30...........


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:59
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

Auric:

Do I reject the idea of gold at $450.00 by 1999 That is so far off for my
trading techniques that I feel your just fishing for a prediction..


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:58
Front To Aurophile:>(To Aurophile:):

Aurophile:

I had just posted my agreement with NotaGOldbug about the supply demand thoughts and went back and there you were saying I was wrong! Well actually, ( :- ) you said he was incorrect and therefore by extension, I was wrong. NOT! ( :- ) You're right of course about the car companies not being shorted like the Gold market is at the moment. The problem is for me, that the two markets are totally separate. From the point of view of the creators ( companies ) of cars/gold etc. if there is too much output and nobodies buying, then the production line stops until the market catches up with the goods already produced. Of course they can't short the items already produced since that would entail taking back already produced goods from the market and would be most uneconomical. They also cann;t reduce production below zero so that also would back you feelings of non-shorting the items. When you refer to shorting though, we're talking about a different area. We're talking about the feelings of people about the future of a company. Sure we can sell Ford short ( and sometimes when my Taurus stops working, I will! ) and we can also sell Barrick Gold short of course. But that still doesn't eliminate the necessary distinction between the items price of conceivement and the wantings of individuals taking a flier in the stock market re shorts. Two different worlds I would venture to say. Is it possible we're both right?

TTFN


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:54
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
John Disney: Re your 13:59 that gold price of $US 127 to 135 caught my attention also. That was Steve - Perth post at 08:16 French contacts..still sticking to US$127 to US$135 an oz for Gold LONG TERM. ( Poss by Sept. ) Will be $300 in a fortnight... Steve, was that TV show The French Connection?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:53
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Aurophile:

I do love your comments, of all the participants in this site your just about my
the most real...

As to the short covering. I have almost always found that short covering at
bottoms a non event.. It is always fanticized about but rarely bounces as high as
was anticipated. At tops, especially in this market, it is more interesting.. Causing
the stock/commodity to propell byond reasonable limits..

I do not believe that short covering will be anything other than a good trade. If
the fundimentals of gold, or psychology, doesn’t change the metal will continue
lower.





Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:53
Auric Re-14:40 post>(Re-14:40 post):

NotaGoldbug-True. An ounce fetches $325 right now. That is the world's agreed upon price. Gold is as undervalued now as the Dow was in the Summer of 1982. Do you reject the idea of $450 gold by 1999?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:44
Front To P.Smith;Aurophile;NotaGoldbug;JohnDisney;BT;Milhouse>(To P.Smith;Aurophile;NotaGoldbug;JohnDisney;BT;Milhouse):

Paul Smith: One man's junk is another man's treasure eh!

Aurophile: Outstanding post! Wish I had as much time as you to read it all. Glad you're there and not charging for the time expended though ( :- )

NotaGoldbug: Absolutely correct. If they overproduce cars, they shut down the line till the inventory gets back into acceptable levels. Makes sence to me.

John Disney: Point 7 ... Aussie's usually do what Canadians do only later....Hope not, My daughter just got back from an Air Cadets training camp in Quebec ( French part of Canada ) and on Canada Day, they purposfully flew the Canadain flag upside down in disrespect! This country is splitting apart sooner than anyone thinks!

BIG TRADER: Now I know you're not a Canadian! Scouts honor? It's Honour in Canada! Big Trader is an American!

MILHOUSE: I was re-reading you post of April 4, 1997 @ 23:38 today. I placed it on my wall since it seemed so outlandish back then. HELL OF A CALL SIR! In summary you said:
If Gold closed weekly above 370 then a low of gold to the 325~334 area should hold in a further decline and SILVER, if unable to close on a weekly basis above 5.388 by the end of April then another decline to new lows in June/July to 4.25~4.50 by mid year. Now if that's not worthy of the KING OF KITCO AWARD, I don't know what is! Dates and Numbers and projected results all in one post that has come true in-side a time limit. Excellent!

TTFN


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:40
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Auric said: Dollar is terribly overvalued at $325 per ounce of gold. It is more realistic that an ounce should fetch $400.

Your opinion, not the worlds!



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:39
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Telecaster I am sure that was not ole 49r just another handle stealer.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:38
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Roebear:

My analysis is based on technical patterns. This, I believe, is the purest form
of analysis. Yes, sometimes technical patterns can be manipulated by strong
hands but I try not to get to worried by this. I play along with what ever is
happening.. Why not.. I do believe we’re all here to make money.. As with gold
I enjoy the almost religious following it brings along.. It is the purest emotional
investment I know.

I don't believe, even in the remotest sense, that gold will become a currency
again. I love my computer, credit card ( by the way, always paid in full ) and
all of technology.. It amazes me that so many intellectuals also rejoice in the
Internet but think that we will return to a currency that weighs 1 oz per $295.00.. :D
Why? They see governments ruin currencies over and over again. But as with
Germany ( twice in a century ) They run back to a currency that is easy to use.

Gold has lost, temporarily, its appeal..



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:27
Spellchecker (?):
Ole 49r: Your grammar may be impeccable, but you're no whiz on spelling.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:27
Auric @NotaGoldbear>(@NotaGoldbear):

NotaGoldbug @ 14:06--Supply and demand indeed. If gold were not a political football, it would be fairly valued at $450-$480. More to the point, the Dollar is terribly overvalued at $325 per ounce of gold. It is more realistic that an ounce should fetch $400.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:24
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
NotaGoldbug: You are, of course, correct that gold can fall below the cost of production and stay there for some time. But you are incorrect to compare this to computers or autos. No one sells the latter short. No one ( except the stock market... ) is selling auto production of 1999 forward. When prices drop below the cost of production due to lack of demand, auto makers do not produce more of it. But short sellers and forward sellers ( the same thing ) can and do continue to sell. The result is that auto prices may rise very slowly and after a long time as market demand slowly grows. But in a market driven by massive short selling there is already a future market which can be comfortably sized: all those short sellers are going to have to buy one day. And if the price remains below the price of production very long, they are going to be subject to a major squeeze.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:19
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Current data and charts showing yesterday's action in Canada is available at http://quote.yahoo.com
For the TSE Gold and Silver index type in ^tgl
For individual stocks try for example: abx.to
pdg.to
nem.to
bgo.to
or
tvx.to, etc.

You might want detailed info rather than just basic so click on the down arrow next to 'basic to allow you to use that option.
Available chart with each index and stock can be adjusted for different time periods. Percentage moves also given. Have fun.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:17
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
NotAGoldbug: Could I ask you to back up your statement that supply is exceeding demand with some figures or data or are you basing this statement on price action only?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:15
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
In todays Globe & Mail Business Section titled Where the Action is The reporter, Stephen Northfield states...Gold stocks: The group slipped 5.5 % this week, bringing the year-to-date loss to 30.5%. Bullion plunged to a 12 year low at one point this week after Australia announced that it had sold a load of the junk over the past six months.

JUNK he called it ! It's amazing how trends cause writers to jump on the bandwagon and say such things. Gold is out, equities are in. I wonder for how long ?

Paul


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:14
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
thanks 6pak/// Both Randall Forsyth and Gene Epstein have interesting articles in Barrons today on what happened to inflation? ( Both also quote Steve Roach of Morgan Stanley. ) Paul McCulley of UBS has recommended the spread between Fed Funds rate and the yield on the 2 year note as a leading indicator of stock market direction. ( This is basically a newer variation on the old TED spread concept of complacency versus fear amongst investors. ) McCulley points out that when the spread widened from 50 bp to over 100 in March, the stock market fell 10%. As of Thursday the spread was 41.5 bp. That slim spread between two-year notes and fed funds implies the collapse of all risk premiums,m and the virtual elimination of any possibility of Fed tightening in our lifetimes.....it also means that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has led us to a recession-free promised land. Nevertheless McCulley believes that there is a difference between taming and repealing the business cycle.

I find this interpretation of the 2year-ff spread most interesting since it provides an alternative explanation for the significance of gold's plunge since February 1996. Since the 1970's we have been accustomed to seeing gold's major ups and downs as harbingers of inflation or disinflation. Gold leads is a favorite nostrum. Well, if gold is leading since 1996, we're going toward a deflationary collapse a la Prechter and most of the internet crashistes. Put within the context of McCulley's reading of the rate spread, the bear in gold simply reflects the irrational exuberance of stock market investors that all is well with the world. The stock market is not wishing for deflation by any means. It is looking for steady growth without inflation. Therefore bonds are not perhaps the BEST investment within that environment, but they are safe.

As has been suggested by others, the safety of the bond may be the reason ( or the outcome depending upon whether you are a conspiracist or a market speaks devotee ) for gold's decline. So what? If both the bond's and gold's prospects are dependent upon the continued success of stocks, then inflation is the wrong microscope to use. If gold is going down because of stock market confidence ( along with that rate spread ) then the only factor worthy of noting is the stock market price. As long as gold and the spread are low, the stock market will not top. As soon as the market does top, gold and interest rates will go up. ( The scenario in which they both go up together is key to my long wave analysis, as from 1946 to 1980. )

McCulley's feeling is that not only has the stock market discounted all good news for the next decade but so has the rate spread. And I would maintain that gold has too. But this is not to say that the manias cannot continue for a while. When people are mortgaging their homes to buy mutual funds and NJ borrows at 7% to fund its pension liabilities ( stocks ) , we are clearly into the tulip mania/bubble phase.
This is why I would dearly love to know whether Soros has made a bonds for gold trade, effectively. If it is merely a Central Bank buying all the gold being sold by miners and other CB's, then this is just a diversification program of no great short term significance. But if some very successful hedge funds are scaling into gold in a big way, we have the makings of something very meaningful.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 14:06
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

I hear a many say that gold cannot go below the price of
production.. This is ludicrous.. Of course it can. If there
is more product than there is demand for the product then
the price will go down, irregardless of the fact that many
producing the product ( commodity ) will fail.. This is the
simple law of supply and demand and will hold true for
gold also. If someone said this about auto’s, computers,
coffee, lumber, etc. many would agree… Well, gold can
be exactly the same. The price of production has no bearing
if there is no demand.

The Dow average/ounce gold theory just as ludicrous.. I
don’t believe it! What the heck difference does it make
Remember supply demand.. There is more supply than there
is demand… Simple!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:59
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For bob/don
1. regarding low cost rsa producers - first the
rsa mines are only beginning to adopt International
Accounting Standards for reporting their costs. The
effect of their previous reporting from dawn of time
has been to OVER STATE their costs relative to other
producers. The costs reported by RSA mines include
everything except Capex. This has led to the largely
myth-like generality that the mines here are high cost
and the mines elsewhere are low cost. This is similar
to the entrenched myth that the society here may
disintegrate at any moment ( this myth predates the
first Boer War and I think was first planted by the
Anglican Church as an arm of British foreign policy ) .
2 Ill give you the low cost producers BUT if you think
gold will be sold off to 250 why do you care Their
profits and share values will shrink too. They will
simple manage to stay alive and suffer while the others
die quietly.
3. All this talk of 250 and Scott knows a Frenchman
who talks of 100 to 150 long term bothers me. Having
made the numbers on the economics of the Aussie sale,
what impresses me is that it is only favorable
if you KNOW FOR SURE GOLD WILL go DOWN to
and BELOW 325 REGARDLESS of whether YOU sell or NOT.
Does somebody really know something Some Frenchman
to boot
4. Suppose Scotts Frenchman knows that the CBs plan
to continue selling and to drive gold down until
exploration STOPS and production slows to say half
the present level - at 100/150 it will stop completely
as Im sure that NO mine can cover TOTAL per once costs
at anything near that.
5. I wish Scott could check where this French info
comes from. But I cant see buying Australian producers
as they do tend toward the high cost direction even
WITH IA standards. The test of a mining companys
costs is the gold price level at which they stop
making money. I dont believe most of the costs the
companies provide.
6. The dumps in Europe were expected and are either
associated with meeting EMU criteria OR perhaps this
is a cover story and it really is a program
to rely on German and French gold reserves with the
more peripheral countries running their gold reserves
down as the Euro slowly comes in.
7. The Aussie sale is of course a surprise. But it
is a parallel to what the Canadians did. Australians I
find like to compare themselves to Canada ( large country/
small population ) and usually like doing what Canadians
do only a little later.
8. On the currency blocks - I see only US and Euro
blocks - I see no activity toward a yen block. On that
point, you say that the Japanese have sold most of their
gold over the last 10 years. Is that true I didnt
think so. I thought they always had low reserves relative
to $ holdings - Do you have any data on Japanese Gold
holdings over time Few Asian countries like Taiwan
China or India seem interested in reducing holdings.
What about South Korea and Singapore - Any data
9. Im fascinated with Scott's Frenchman and the
130 $ gold. Whats the story Scott - Why so low - Why
go even LOWER than the lowest cost mine Are we
sowing salt in the ground so gold never grows again
Why not make it illegal not only for a non oriental to
OWN gold but even to say the dreaded word.
10 RSA lowcost producers - Numbers are maybe at least
10 % high on a comparable basis with non RSA mines.
Dries - 260 or less - Earns $.27/share
Joel - 274 - Loses -.02/share
Buffels - 260 - Earns $ 1.49/share
Beatrix - 225 - Earns $ 0.38/share

Many other RSA mines with costs in the $ 300 region
have good earnings as their costs are overstated.

11. Of the Aussies

Aurora - 211$ - Earns $.07/share
Delta - 252 - Earns 0.33/share
Great Central - 207 - Earns 0.11/share
Normandy - 239 - But only earns .02/share

12 Of the Yanks

Battle Mountain - 231 and LOSES $.33/share
Newmont - 211 - earns $.95/share
Homestake - 245 - Earns $.15/share

13 Canadians
Barrick - 197 - Earns $.40/share
Teck - 202 - Earns $ 1.39/share
Kinross - 259 - Earns $ 0.05/share ( moregold shows 311$ cost !! )
Cambior - 255 - Earns $ 0.08/share
Many others show gorgeous costs and lose money.
I assume de Guzman's relatives are somewhere in
their accounting departments .

All the info was picked from the Mining Journal
Gold service.










Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:48
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
DOW per oz = oz per DOW. Wishful thinking I guess.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:46
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Donald: Re the DOW per oz in Barrons Commodity Corner. I just caught it. Seems there is a lot of mention of golds $7 drop in Barrons this week. You have the credit IMO, for that DOW/oz ratio, I read it in your posts first! What name will you give it? Donalds Ratio?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:29
Donald @Home>(@Home):
ROEBEAR: Did you catch the piece at the bottom of the Michael Santoli Commodities Corner? He is using the 24oz to buy the Dow theme I have been posting. Is he a lurker or contributor here, or did he figure it out himself?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:27
BIG TRADER THOUGHTS>(THOUGHTS):

Sorry about this week. I promise to make it up to you next week. Scouts Honor. ( Uplink Terminated )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:26
WW @New England>(@New England):
I sense panic in the gold industry. Is it possible that these guys could hedge themselves so aggressively that they will get blown out of the water on the someday big and sudden up move in gold. 260=280 would create unbeliveable panic and thus could cause panic overhedging. Thoughts


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:21
MoreGold OH-OH, Not again? >(OH-OH, Not again? ):
Communications glitch hampers Mars rover

Latest developments:

•Engineers 'confident' •Landing went 'beyond expectations'

July 5, 1997
Web posted at: 9:39 a.m. EDT ( 1339 GMT )

PASADENA, California ( CNN ) -- NASA scientists scrambled Saturday to fix a communications problem with Pathfinder's star performer: the little rover that is to journey onto the Martian surface.

If the problem is not corrected, engineers may not be able to drive the six-wheeled Sojourner on Mars via remote control, rover manager Jacob Matijevic said.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:20
ole 49r @Kitco>(@Kitco):

Poorboys: I see your grammer hasn't improved. Your is a possessive pronoun. You meant to say You're, a contraction of you are.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:19
telecaster @heading down>(@heading down):
O/49er- Congratulations. You called this move in the bullion well in advance. You have also said that the next stop is US$265. My question: Do we get a suckers rally in here before a further drop, or are we going straight down? Your opinion appreciated.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
OZ: Is anyone there awake yet?. Paul Revere has been reincarnated and rides horseback at midnight for the RBA. His new cry?...The bullion is coming!, the bullion is coming!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:18
MoreGold @Why Mine ? >(@Why Mine ? ):
A thought: If a large Gold miner like Barrick is hedged for 2 years at 430./ounce and the current spot price falls to 300./ounce, why would they continue to operate their mines at 340./ounce, when they can buy the same Gold at 300. and make an extra 40. per ounce.
Yes they would like not to have to mothball their mines, but the bottom line is maximum profit.
It's hard to imagine that Gold could go much below 300. as some are suggesting, in light of the actual production costs to mine Gold.
Panick may do the trick for a while though.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:16
Tw @home>(@home):
Cedar: Many companies though not all have already sold this year's production. One company I follow was very successful and has sold its entire 1997 production at 395 per oz. further they have shorted many thousands of ounces of option premium at higher prices so they are well taken care of for this year. The company is Royal Oak Mines. The spokesman told me that they would have no hedges beginning in 1998 unless there is some sort of gold rally. This is short term problematical but would als make the company a purer gold play. He said on some rallies of course they would put on some more positions but generally not more than 15% of mineable reserves. The company has been a high cost producer but with the completion of the kemess project their cash cost of production drop to about 240 from 340. It is the only gold company I know trading below book. Its capitalization to mineable reserves is about 33 per oz where for normal midsize producers the ratio is about 75-100 per oz.

That there have been difficulties with the govt and indians ( both now resolved ) over kemess funding and development along with this being their first self created project could account for the undervaluation.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:13
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):

On Sat Jul 05 1997 12:12 Vronsky said:

Thanks for a very interesting and bullish picture. It's rather obvious this is definitely not the time to be SHORT GOLD. On the contrary it is for initiating positions for those who have none, and for increasing ones position for those still long.

Interesting Vronsky never, and I mean never, thinks gold will go down further..
And is always encouraging adding to positions.. I would love to go back and try to
figure out how much in the hole I would be if I added just 1% of my portfolio
with each of his now is the time to add to position statements..

Vronsky, one of these days you’ll be right. But please don’t think yourself a
genius when this happens.. If one makes the same prediction day after day
some year it will be true.. But 1000 bad calls does not make 1 right call acceptable.
Be kind to us all and suggest that this gold bear is getting just as out of control
as the stock bull, and it is very dangerous ( financially ) to not be cautious either
way…..

I would love to know how many good people you’ve helped loose their money..

I’m not trying to be hurtful and I enjoy your comments but your almost fanatical
about gold and this is dangerous..





Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 13:01
Cedermen hedge?>(hedge?):
I'm guessing that the current environment has forced a drastic change in hedging stratigies for the majors and that the strategies imployed will become less uniform than they have been in the recent past. The majors like Barrick are hedged for 2 years at above $400, right? Are they presently selling forward at lower prices or has hedging been suspended? In two years, will all producers be unhedged? Anyone have insight?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:58
6pak Reply @ Source of Data>(Reply @ Source of Data):
aurophile July 05 @ 11:39 : In reply to your request, to verify the
source, of the numbers that were posted by me.

Source: International Monetary Fund ( Table II ) [gold as % of total
Reserves ] is using market SDR valuations.

From:*THE GOLD BOOK* the Complete Investment Guide to Precious Metals.
FINANCIAL TIMES Revised for 1993, Featuring,the Death of the GOLDEN BEAR.

BY: Pierre Lassonde---is one of Canada's most astute gold investors.
As president of Franco-Nevada Mining Corporation Ltd, and sister company
Euro-Nevada, he oversees two of North America's most successful mining
firms. He is also president of the gold division of Beutel, Goodman & Co.
Ltd., mining analysts and advisors to mutual fund and pension managers.

Note: In addition to previous post
Gold As % of Total Reserves. ALL IMF COUNTRIES:
1960-----63.6 %.....1980----57.8 %
1965-----58.8 %.....1985----41.2 %
1970-----41.3 %.....1990----28.6 %
1975-----43.3 %

I hope, this has answered your inquiry, and is of assistance. Take care.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:58
MoreGold @ It's going to mean closures, it's going to mean shelving of expansion plans ­ and it's going to mean lower stock prices, in some cases, >(@ It's going to mean closures, it's going to mean shelving of expansion plans ­ and it's going to mean lower stock prices, in some cases, ):
Saturday, July 5, 1997

Golds retreat further on bullion's freefall

By PAUL BAGNELL
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
 Share prices of Canadian gold producers took another beating Friday, as the aftershock of a steep drop in the bullion price rattled investors for a second straight day.
 Analysts said high-cost gold miners now face the difficult choice of operating money-losing mines or temporarily shutting them.
 If closings do occur, they said, the stocks of their owner companies will undergo further pressure.
 The Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious minerals index fell 3.34% yesterday, tumbling 271.33 points to 7855.20. That was on the heels of Thursday's 2.49% decline.
 The biggest percentage losers Friday were: Pegasus Gold Inc. ( PGU/TSE ) , which fell 6.17%, or 50¢, to $7.60; Placer Dome Inc. ( PDG/TSE ) , down 5.76%, or $1.25, to $20.45; and Echo Bay Mines Ltd. ( ECO/TSE ) , down 5.3%, or 40¢, to $7.15.
 Meanwhile, the price of gold settled deeper into its 12-year low. The closing price in London was US$324.45 an ounce, off 75¢ from the morning fix of US$325.20.
 At one point during the day, the price dipped to US$322.75.
 There was no trading in New York because of the Independence Day holiday.
 Friday's London close was 25¢ higher than the Thursday closing cash price in New York of US$324.20.
 On Thursday, the New York cash price plunged by US$7.10 on the surprise news Australia's central bank had sold 167 tonnes of gold in the past six months.
 John Ing, president of Maison Placements Inc. in Toronto, said he thinks the gold price has touched a bottom, but that miners with cash production costs of more than US$250 an ounce are feeling the heat.
 When other costs of doing business are added to cash costs at this level, Ing said, making money becomes difficult.
 It's going to mean closures, it's going to mean shelving of expansion plans ­ and it's going to mean lower stock prices, in some cases, he said.
 Companies with production cash costs at US$250 or more an ounce in the first quarter included Getchell Gold Corp. ( GCO/TSE ) at US$462, Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( RYO/TSE ) at US$372, Pegasus Gold Inc. ( PGU/TSE ) at US$297, Kinross Gold Corp. ( K/TSE ) at US$311, Echo Bay at US$267 and Cambior Inc. ( CBJ/TSE ) at US$260.
 Some high-cost producers may be able to avoid mine shutdowns through aggressive forward selling of gold, which usually brings a higher price.
 Pegasus and Cambior, for instance, reported realized gold prices of US$460 and US$452 an ounce, respectively, in the first quarter.
 


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:54
US Debt obscuring problems>(obscuring problems):
No offence intended... http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdint.htm
...oh my, I've to go on diet, maybe by 2002! I can't keep on growing like this...I need to keep things under control ( interest rates ) but my system is still hungry ( need to sell more TBills to foreigners ) ...how am I going to shed the unwanted ( devalue US$, oh its possible, have done it for the last 20 years ) oh look how ugly that model is ( gold ) ...isn't she ugly... ( throwing mud ) ) I'm so beautiful...look how beautiful I am? ( trying to convince herself? ) ...


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:32
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
ole 49r surprised your selling those slim pickings at these prices.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:32
nomercy getting closer?>(getting closer?):
Bill Buckler...please comment on the recent ( last two weeks ) sudden increase on US Public Debt...it could possibly be flactuation...but if not ( major tax intake season over? ) ...how long, until they have to raise ceiling again?
Balance buget by 2002? Hogwash!
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:26
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Here is a 20 year chart on silver as well. Unadjusted for inflation it's about where it was in '77.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:24
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
vronsky- WHERE YOU BEEN I was about to believe you took the weekend OFF. I would give my left nuckel for a copy of Steve Puetz letter, I have
reloaded many times, HELP. Welcome back!!

All- recieved a sample copy of James Flanagan letter Past Present Futures. He says that the indications now are for a low in the shares for October 1997, then an elplosive rally.

Tally Ho


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:24
ole 49r @Kitco >(@Kitco ):

Hi everyone. You got trouble. Right here in River City.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:22
George Cole Market Top?>(Market Top?):
Donald: Your scenario for spotting a market top makes a lot of sense. But it is not te only credible scenario.

I place a lot of weight on the receding length of bull market phases. First phase 11/94-5/96 ( 18 months )
Second phase 7/96-3/97 ( 9 months )
Third phase 4/97-8/97 ( 4.5 months )

If this current phase lasts half as long as the previous phase just as the previous phase was half as long as phase 1, this market will peak in August.

The last time the market made a major blowoff August top was 1987.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:14
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
So'ham: One thing is sure about the average cost of production ---nobody knows what it is. The 275 figure was quoted in late 1996 and seemed to get by without major criticism. Then about 4 months ago there was a report that the price was considerably higher-- $310 is a figure I recall. About the same time there was a Canadian report on several mines and the costs of Echo Bay and Pegasus were well above $400 an oz.

The problem involves the ability of many mines to switch from low to high grade ore as prices fluctuate, the presence or absence of other minerals in the ore that may be going up or down in price with or against the gold price and of course selling forward which has the effect of making current gold prices irrelevant to the mines profit.

A search of the Web about 6 months ago resulted in several sites that advertise documents that purport to tell the average cost at a cost of U$20 000 and up. I'm sticking to the 275 figure and watching for news of mines closeing with ore left in them. TVX closed a mine in Quebec about 2 months ago because it was loosing money. More to come I think.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:12
vronsky 20-YEAR GOLD CHART>(20-YEAR GOLD CHART):
Earl: Thanks for a very interesting and bullish picture. It's rather obvious this is difinitly not the time to be SHORT GOLD. On the contrary it is for initiating positions for those who have none, and for increasing ones position for those still long.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:04
Poorboys canada>(canada):
Canada's great neighbour can drive Gold back to $35.00 if that what it takes to make capitalism flourish for the next generation.Yes in Canada we depend on exports to the U.S as most of the emerging countries. Some people invest in the markets monthly for the future of their children.The 1929 scenario and all the doom and gloom wont bring back Gold to the shine of 1980 and if the markets collapse God help us all even the Goldbugs.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 12:02
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)):
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD! ( PART - II ) . Per global experts - “It’s Inevitable”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Here is a 20 year chart of gold with the Commodity Channel Index superimposed. The two indicators are the same. One fast ( pink ) and the other slow ( yellow ) . The small green arrow in the lower right is on the bar for 1/31/97. That was the lowest reading for the CCI in the past 20 years. Only 1988 was close at -458. ..... Present reading is in pink in the upper left...... A crossover ( weekly ) of this indicator has done a better job of picking tops and bottoms better than me - hardly noteworthy. .... Something different on a Saturday.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:39
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
6Pak: Thanks for those numbers. Could you direct me to the source? Email or here is fine. I have IMF numbers on millions of ounces held by each IMF member from 1975-93.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:38
vronsky ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)>(ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)):
Market Maven report rings with logic & clarity. We have a “Goldilocks Economy” coexisting with a “Vampire Financial State.” Steve Puetz Letter:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:37
Time Keeper>(Keeper):

Poorboys: At some point the bulls will be right. A stopped clock is right eventually. Three Two Five is the right time to buy.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:30
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Puetz: I saw your question as to the buyer of Australia's approximately $1.9 bullion worth of bullion. I posted this yesterday:
Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:57
aurophile:
Donald: Your suggestion of a Japanese/Australian bonds for gold swap is quite plausible given the timing so soon after G-7 ( 8 ) and the Hashimoto remarks. I ( and others too including James Turk ) have thought they ( BOJ ) were trying to do a similar deal with the IMF which has publically committed to selling some gold to do good works.
After overnight reflection I am thinking that the timing may well have been a godsend. They released the info while markets were open in London and New York but before a long weekend to allow it all to react and then to rest.
Perhaps more interesting are the rumors regarding the Soros campaign against the Thai baht AND the Soros interviews with the Australian Reserve Bank this past week. Was Soros there to prop up the $AD ahead of the gold announcement? ( He is said to have bought $AD heavily. ) Is he somehow involved in the gold/bond swap? Is Soros THE or A buyer of the gold?

$1.9 Billion is a lot of money to me, nothing at all for the BOJ but a normal trading size for Soros. Since that posting I have reconfirmed the Soros interview with members of the RBA early last week. It is reported that he was short nearly $4 billion of $AD and has covered about one-third of that position. Furthermore I have been reminded by a well-connected source that Soros' entry into gold in 1989-90 for the $75 run up to about $430 was via Australia after he had gone long the $AD.
One way to put this together is to see Soros as the buyer in a situation in which he graciously accomodates the RBA and alleviates their fear of a slumping $AD ( which ties their hands on reducing rates ) by covering his short $AD position and delivers US Bills, Notes, and Bonds against the gold position. Since there are steady CB buyers for the gold position, Soros can unload it anytime he pleases after a rally.
The other and more intriguing possibility is that the Soros/RBA talks went badly last week. This scenario is that Soros did indeed buy the gold months ago and was attempting to pressure the RBA in some way with his short $AD position because of the fact that gold had underperformed. When RBA announced the gold sale on Thursday and the market did not rally, Soros unloaded the gold via Comex. The scuttlebutt from contacts at Comex is that the feeling was that it was one very large organization which dumped.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:28
nomercy don'tpanic>(don'tpanic):
Interesting column, Hashimoto's Golden Toothache, by John Tomkins,
http://www.talks.com/portfolio.html


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:13
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Gold bottom -When everybody here looses their shirts,pants and socks.It is incredible with all the wisdom and knowledge in this group that so many can be so wrong most of the time.No thanks you can keep your socks.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:05
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Barrons today ( bearly ) mentions gold twice on front page articles.
http://www.barrons.com/bie/articles/current/toc.html
Describing the delicious conditions for stocks/bonds It can't go on can it? describes gold as adding to the happy mix, gold on thursday dropped $7 ... Also, Gold, who said Gold? about gold as a laboratory contrarian play. Anybody counting bear ads/stories for gold? I know too time consuming!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 11:02
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE S. COLE: Bull Stock Market Top. I have some thoughts on how to spot the top, even though we all agree no one can do it, we keep trying anyway. For the past several years Bad News is good news for stocks. The Bad News, in stock nut theory, means that the Fed won't raise interest rates. The worse the Bad News the higher it goes. A giant corporate downsize somewhere was always good for a few points. Unemployment is up? Bad News? only if you are the guy out of work, stocks go up another few points. So where does it end? WHEN BAD NEWS IS PERCIEVED BY THE MARKETS AS TRULY BAD NEWS and stocks go DOWN instead of up. A better sign would be if stocks went up on the announcement and reversed later in the day after letting it soak in. I think that is as good a sign as any. I am still thinking about those money supply numbers from my earlier post. That is bad news for debtors in my opinion. I don't know if the market will react to it, probably not, but it seems that some folks who needed loans over the past two weeks didn't get them.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:49
Groucho Marx>(Marx):

I would join you guys, but I wouldn't want to be at a site that would accept someone like me.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:44
Mike Sheller @RJ and MOONEY>(@RJ and MOONEY):
I too have found ( thru much pain and suffering ) that a layered approach as you both call it is inevitably the best when moving into an asset play of any kind. Indeed the layers should be slimmer and more tentative, with snug stops, if the game is via futures. The Astrological Investor proposed to web visitors last summer and fall that expectations were for a weak spell ( a very severe astrological tension aspect we won't go into here ) in February/March of this year. The projection was for a late- summerish rally peak, and then renewed weakness into a bottom in the winter of 97/98. The recommendation all along was to accumulate bullion coins all during this weak spell, and to simply dollar cost average into spring of '98, when a clear indication of where the next bull would come from emerged. While I did not expect a break much below 340, and certainly did not predict any specific price ( Among other things, I'm an astrologer, NOT a fortuneteller ) current prices are harmonious with that strategy. While financial astrology, as a form of technical analysis, is a growing field at present, MOST astrologers per se are not into materialism. Nor are they sophisticated or sufficiently scarred concerning the trading markets. That's why the recommendation has been for drawn out regular moderate purchases over a long period of time during which, hopefully, the conservative investor can join the game without being unusually vulnerable. We seem to be in the midst of that period. Actually, it was stated in an Astrological Investor post that Silver Maple leafs, accumulated regularly and diligently during this time window, would prove to the the people's investment of the early years of the next century. I still stick by that. At $5 face value Cdn, you can at least get a burger and some fries with your coin, no matter what. At this stage, some sort of tepid rally is likely in the making, unless of course, that ol' exogenous factor ( Max's brother ) emerges.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:43
6pak Millions of ounces @ gone where ?>(Millions of ounces @ gone where ?):
Puetz July 04 @ 23:34... Further, to gold reserves of CB's
*Gold As % of total Reserves*
CANADA
1960-----44.7 %.....1980----80.3 %
1965-----38.0 %.....1985----72.4 %
1970-----17.8 %.....1990----24.2 %
1975-----41.2 %

USofA
1960-----92.1 %.....1980----90.9 %
1965-----91.1 %.....1985----72.8 %
1970-----77.6 %.....1990----58.3 %
1975-----89.3 %

Australia
1960-----20.2 %.....1980----73.4 %
1965-----18.8 %.....1985----31.0 %
1970-----14.9 %.....1990----15.8 %
1975-----25.9 %

Switzerland
1960-----94.1 %.....1980----75.8 %
1965-----88.4 %.....1985----60.2 %
1970-----54.8 %.....1990----52.3 %
1975-----62.4 %

UK
1960-----75.6 %.....1980----35.0 %
1965-----75.4 %.....1985----32.6 %
1970-----49.3 %.....1990----16.9 %
1975-----39.1 %


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:33
Lee @>(@):

Paul Smith: Thanks for the good wishes. It means a lot to hear that sentiment expressed here at Kitco. I wish you, and all here, good fortune.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:26
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
Lee ( @Gold Bull ) :

Re: If gold gets to $400 or better I can retire. Lee, I believe gold will do much better than that once it starts to move. I wish you every success !

Paul


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:13
George Cole Hypothesis>(Hypothesis):
Another possible reason for the gold war. Those at the top have got to know that a bear market in stocks cannot be far off. Naturally they want to limit the damage. The powers that be must also know that a severe bear market is bound to sharply hike investor interest in gold. They may be forcing it down so that the next gold bull will start from as low a level as possible. That way, they would have a better chance of keeping the yellow under $400 when the markets go to hell.

This strategy would be most effective if prices are pushed to the depths relatively briefly, so as not to trigger mass mine closures.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:09
Lee @>(@):

I did not mean to brag in my last post. I worked hard for my pension and played by the rules. I now want to get out of my profession.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 10:02
Bob @..reason why HM is a short>(@..reason why HM is a short):
To short HM ( or ABX ) is a no-brainer given that they are valued at premiums ( irrespective of forward hedge programs ) . The junior miners with economic reserves are more difficult shorts in this gold price regime as they are valued at significant discounts - for example, BGO/AZS Cerro Casale Project valuation ( for those who know the play ) .

Cheers


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:46
Bob @...CB gold strategy comment and gold miner costs in RSA>(@...CB gold strategy comment and gold miner costs in RSA):
John Disney: Your review of the Aussie CB gold dump in relation to Aussie gold mining industry tax benefits is well reasoned.

I wonder if the world's CB's have agreed to rally around three main currency-backed assets - US$, DM and YEN, in order to direct consolidation of global money toward a world currrency mechanism- much like a Bretton Woods 21st century plan ?

I considered that - up to now - the US, German, and Japanese have not changed their collective gold holdings while lesser nations have been dumping gold in a round robin fashion.

The point is that we may be in for a series of gold dumps yet but eventually the minor nations will complete their sales programs and the market will focus on the fact that the largest economies in the world still hold a stable amount of gold. ( I am aware that the Japs have sold most of their gold over the past 10 years - but have not engaged in any recent dumps. )

A further point is that if gold price will consolidate around $250 before the CB Bear bootoms ( as some suggest ) the action in the gold market should now focus on the gold miners instead of the metal.

Afterall, the paper market could absorb only so much short gold. Agree ?

Gold miners will be forced to close mines increasingly as the metal continues to drop. The supply of new gold will decrease and demand pressure will be supplied ( mainly ) by CB gold inventories until the gold dump programs cease.

Gold miners who can operate profitably at $250 gold prices will have a great opportunity to leverage collaterized' gold loans.

While the focus shifts from the metal the gold miners with the best ( and worst ) prospects at $250 gold will realize renewed market interest - especially, in the late innings of the Paper Bull - possibly an October massacre the way things are shaping up ( a replay of 1987 ) .

In this regard I ask if you have a list of low cost producers in RSA that you may - once again - share with us ?

Thank you.

Cheers


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:32
Lee @Gold Bull>(@Gold Bull):

If gold gets to $400 or better I can retire. I can then take $500,000 out of my pension stash and still have $500,000 left. I will have to pay a 10% penalty plus 30% in federal and state taxes. With the $300,000 left I can become FREE. I am ready.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:24
Patriot @More Good News>(@More Good News):
Beginning July 25, access to Barron's Online will be by PAID subscription only. The price is $49. per year. But print subscribers to Barron's will be eligible for an introductory rate of only $29. per year.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:21
Patriot Quotes>(Quotes):
In the past 1,500 years of English history, I can think of no public act more disgraceful than the handing over of 5 million of the Queen's subjects to a totalitarian slave state.
--Sean Gabb

We may tolerate some freedom of speech, depending on what they try to say.
--HK's New Red Party Boss

The People's Republic of China has reclaimed a great city, and put a lot of money in its bank account with one stroke.
--Tom Brokaw of NBC

Notice that not once did the words Freedom or Red or Communist ever get mentioned by the news media during the coverage of the celebrations? And that Liberty was only mentioned one time when Tom Brokaw stated There are so many questions left to be resolved ... about individual liberty. I did however lose track of how many times the word Stability was used...



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:10
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
escher - Re: Your 3:32 - I agree. As I said here a few weeks ago, at this point it is a crap shoot and good go either way. However if some of the recent stories we seen in the paper are true then KRY must have something, otherwise why would Placer try to initiate discussions with them?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:03
Mooney @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ - Re: Your 4:01 - Its not that I question your present Silver purchasing strategy - I don't, I think its very well reasoned and timely - Its just that your treatise at 1:30 yesterday in which you said, The most important advise I can give anyone is to never buck the trend. , did not seem to jive with your 1:47 as we have obviously been engulfed in a down trend.
I agree with the strategy to start making purchases in 'chunks' once you feel that the price has become reasonably close to a bottom. Further purchases can then be 'layered ' in as either the price heads north, ( if you've been lucky enough to make your first purchase near the absolute bottom ) , or if the price dips further, ( thus averaging down your price AND accumulating on weakness ) . It must be realised by participants, however, that this method may turn either a quick profit, ( if one catchs the market near the turning point ) , or it may turn into a long term buy and hold strategy if the market continues in the doldrums for an extended period. Having said all that, however, we are in total agreement that NOW is a good time to start the accumulation process.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 09:03
Patriot @Something to Think About...>(@Something to Think About...):
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE DATED JULY 3, 1997
THE LIBERTARIAN, By Vin Suprynowicz
Most Americans should be ashamed to celebrate the Fourth

What an inconvenient holiday the Fourth of July has become.

Oh, so long as we stick to grilling hot dogs and hamburgs, hauling the
kids to the lake or the mountains, and winding up the day watching the
fireworks as the Boston Pops plays the 1812 -- written by a subject of the czar to celebrate the defeat of our vital ally the French -- we can usually manage to convince ourselves we still honor the same values that made July 4, 1776, a date which rings in history.

Great Britain taxed the colonists at far lower rates than Americans
tolerate today -- and never dreamed of granting government agents the power to search our private bank records to locate unreported income. Nor did the king's ministers ever attempt to stack our juries by disqualifying any juror who refused to swear in advance to leave your conscience outside and enforce the law as the judge explains it to you.

The king's ministers insisted the colonists were represented by Members
of Parliament who had never set foot on these shores. Today, of course, our interests are represented by one of two millionaire lawyers -- both
members of the incumbent Republicrat Party -- among whom we were privileged to choose last election day, men who for the most part have lived in mansions and sent their kids to private schools in the wealthy suburbs of the imperial capital, for decades.

Yet the colonists did rebel. It's hard to imagine, today, the faith and
courage of a few hundred frozen musketmen, setting off across the darkened Delaware, gambling their lives and farms on the chance they could engage and defeat the greatest land army in the history of the known world, armed with only two palpable assets: one irreplaceable man to lead them, and some flimsy newspaper reprints of a parchment declaring: We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness -- That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive to these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or abolish it. ...

Do we believe that, still?

Recently, President Clinton's then-Drug Czar, Lee Brown, told me the role
of government is to protect the people from dangers, such as drugs. I corrected him, saying, No, the role of government is to protect our liberties.

We'll just have to disagree on that, the president's appointee said.

The War for American Independence began over unregistered, untaxed guns,
when British forces attempted to seize arsenals of rifles, powder and ball from the hands of ill-organized Patriot militias in Lexington and Concord. American civilians shot and killed scores of these government agents as they marched back to Boston. Are those Minutemen still our heroes? Or do we now consider them dangerous terrorists and depraved government-haters?

In The Federalist No. 46, James Madison told us we need have no fear of
any federal tyranny ever taking away our rights, arguing that under his
proposed Constitution the ultimate authority ... resides in the people
alone, and predicting that any usurpation of powers not specifically
delegated would lead to plans of resistance and appeal to a trial of
force.

Another prominent federalist, Noah Webster, wrote in 1787: Before a
standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom in Europe. The supreme power in America cannot enforce unjust laws by the sword; because the whole body of the people are armed, and constitute a force superior to any band of regular troops that can be, on any pretence, raised in the United States.

Is this still true today? Or are those who arm themselves and make
contingency plans of resistance against government usurpations instead
branded conspirators and terrorists, and ridiculously associated with
Timothy McVeigh ( who was kicked out of the only militia meeting he is ever known to have attended -- in Michigan -- and whose actions surely reflect more directly on the screening process of the outfit that gave him his training in munitions -- the United States Army. )

In Phoenix last week, an air conditioner repairman and former Military
Policeman named Chuck Knight was convicted by jurors -- some tearful -- who said they had no choice under the judge's instructions, on a single
federal conspiracy count of associating with others who owned automatic
rifles on which they had failed to pay a $200 transfer tax -- after a
trial in which defense attorney Ivan Abrams says he was forbidden to bring up the Second Amendment as a defense.

Were the Viper Militia readying plans of resistance, as recommended by
Mr. Madison? Would the Constitution ever have been ratified, had Mr.
Madison and his fellow federalists warned the citizens that such
non-violent preparations would get their weapons seized, and land them in
jail for decades?

Happy Fourth of July.

Vin Suprynowicz is the assistant editorial page editor of the Las Vegas
Review-Journal. Readers may contact him via e-mail at vin@lvrj.com>vin@lvrj.com. The web site for the Suprynowicz column is at http://www.nguworld.com/vindex/.

***


Vin Suprynowicz, vin@lvrj.com

Voir Dire: A French term which means jury stacking.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:27
Mike Sheller no con do>(no con do):
BW: And the metaphysical law of correspondence is not to be conned either. It is not for nothing that the Fed Chairman destined to preside over the most gargantuan credit and financial asset expansion in US history is named Green-span.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:19
Mooney @Mike.Sheller>(@Mike.Sheller):
Hang in! I'm having a canister of laughing gas couriered to you immediately!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:18
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE PUETZ, KITCO: Monetary Base up 4B in this report period. Reversing a several week trend significantly. Here is more food for thought: M2 is FLAT ( Seasonally adjusted ) and DOWN 34.9B ( not seasonally adjusted ) . The Monetary base injection didn't do anything for M2. Figures are from Barron's, out today. Randall Forsyth ( Current Yield ) says FOMC is baffled ( about inflation ) and cites the recently released May minutes of the committee to make his case.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:16
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Checked with contacts again. Rothschild's people STILL waiting to buy gold stocks in Australia. They have a big kitty. They say at least US$300, & wait for a few months yet. My french contacts now after the Aussie Bank sell off news still sticking to US$127 to US$135 an oz for Gold LONG TERM. ( Poss by Sept ) Will be $300 in a fortnight, & may have a short term spike, but drop down & stay down. That would put the wind up Harry Schultz. There is something big going on here.
DEFLATION: After a 20 year decline, US farm workers Union on a big push to recruit new members.
More posts to come, but my favourite TV show is on. Bye.
Ps. The Hepcat/RJ deal yesterday was PATHETIC!!!!!
I have never met a sane Doctor yet.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:09
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Been away at the farm, in the real world. Hands are stiff from shovelling & hoeing weeds from young vines ( wine grapes ) . Harry Schultz is most likely the IMO at Honolulu. He has been in Guiness Book of records for 18 years.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 08:04
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
PANDA: TYX bond chart on the knocker. You may see a drop below
point 4, then a strong rebound up for 5. I noticed the exact same
pattern in the Australian Resource Stocks Index for the past 6 months on the Privateer Charts web page.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:55
bw Conned:>(Conned:):
Alan Greenspan in his famous article on gold stated The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money ( of claims ) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. He was then stating what he believed a universal truth. However in the truely human irony of our deceitful political times, Greenspan himself helped write what we may call Greenspans corollary, Prices need not rise if the credits can be locked up in the financial system. And I will add my own However should a nation undertake such a reckless course of action it risks its very existence.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:51
Mike Sheller @reincarnated alchemist>(@reincarnated alchemist):
RJ: I am rolling on the floor, tears of laughter in my eyes. Thanks.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:37
George s. Cole musings>(musings):
Richard Burke: Thanks for the TSE info!

Gene: I believe Hashimoto was referring to the dollar/yen, not the stock market or the bond market.

WW: You may be on to something by arguing that one of the main reasons for the gold war is to maintain bonds' safe haven status when the market tanks. The fact that bonds surged after the 1987 crash was a good sign that the system would quickly recover. If bonds were to crash along with stocks or at least not rally as stocks tank confidence in the current financial system would be shaken to its foundations.

Vieserre: In the current investment paradigm, economic growth and expectations thereof have little or nothing to do with the gold price.

Captain Bill: Thanks for the info re: Aussie gold stocks and the jump in bullion purchases by average citizens. If these purchases continue at a strong pace people like Alan Greenspan and Bob Rubin won't be happy at all.

I have commented about the gold bashers moving to kick the yellow stuff every time it raises its head an inch. When gold is able to raise its head a little and KEEP IT THERE for a few weeks, good chance the worst will be over.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:33
So'ham Gold Production Costs>(Gold Production Costs):
I wonder which Gold's Production Costs figure is correct :

1. Danna said on 4/7/97 : The average world cost of production is US$317. One third of world production is uneconomic at current prices.

2. The Australian newspaper on 5/7/97 Sat reported that Australian [ gold ] producers have emerged as the world*s most expensive producers with average costs of $US294 an ounce.

3. Selby ( Toronto ) on 5/7/97 said, the average cost of production of about 275

Any comments ?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:29
Cmax RJ's explosion>(RJ's explosion):
RJ: Sorry to hear about your accident. I guess you are not the first to get burned by tricky Dick's face.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 07:02
Auric @Grand Finale>(@Grand Finale):

Donald @ 06:05-- Yes, I think force was used to try to break the back of the gold market. Guzman's family might agree. Gold got hit, and hit hard this week. It is possible that the Chicago Bears have shot their wad.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 06:50
Andrew ahegedus@worldchat.com>(ahegedus@worldchat.com):
Sooner than later the central banks wont have gold to sell or not as much. Gold production is falling, demand is increaing in developing nations. Just like everything else inflation follows a cycle, look out its just around the corner. You know what they say, the best time to buy is when everyone is the most pessimstic. That time may be coming close.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 06:43
Donald @Home>(@Home):
KITCO: Stocks look like a poor investment when I have to give of 24.67 ounces to buy one unit of the Dow. Ditto at 1680 ounces for silver. Of all the investment opportunities, stocks, bonds, real estate etc. precious metals seem the best. Although gold looks good I would't use leverage to buy it at this point...just in case. Gold and silver are at their lowest price in 31 years. Stocks are at a 100 year high. Buy low, sell high still seems like the way to make money. But then again, we are dealing with a stock mania. Stocks can go higher in spite of the strong case against them. Japan is an example. In spite of a 50% haircut since 1990 they still have a p/e of 60 or something over there.

JOHN DISNEY: I hope your thoughts are picked up by the Australian press over the weekend. The RBA needs a public lesson in accountability. I just took a bike ride down to the beach store to get Barron's, 63F and sunny here, it's going to be a nice one. I will look through Barron's now and post anything useful.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 06:06
Kitco $600 in 2000>($600 in 2000):

Donald: Yes. Jonathan did allow for a panic spike down in gold. Looks like we got it. Adrian is very bullish on gold. Any thoughts?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 06:05
Donald @Home>(@Home):
JOHN DISNEY: Is the RBA like the Fed in the USA? Are they privately owned? Did they act in their best interest rather than the interest of the Australian people? Was their arm twisted by US?, Japan? Do it or we will break your knee-caps? Who knows. As I said in an earlier post, central bankers are people just like us. They are not immune from bad investment decisions.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:52
Donald donald@uconect.net>(donald@uconect.net):
I subscribe to their Gold Letter so I should have it already unless there is something new. Thanks. Their stuff is well written, well detailed.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:40
Kitcoite @>(@):

Donald: Adrian is a very smart man. So is Jonathan. I listen to them very closely. If you post your e-mail address I can send you their latest thoughts on gold and the economy.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:40
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To All
Will someone check my numbers I make 160 tons of
Aussie gold sales to be in the order of 5 million oz,
or about 1.7 billion$ worth or bonds ( or gold ) . The
interest on this would be about 120 million $ US per
year that the Aussie will get from the US bonds in
freshly printed new bond interest.
On the other hand, Taking the market cap of the 12
biggest Aussie gold producers I get about 5.5 bill. $
US. In a healthy gold climate these companies would
have say a 20/1 PE, then the total earnings would be
about 250 mill US. Take company tax plus tax on divs
at 40% and you get a number like 90 mill$ in offsetting
lost tax income.
( Actual tax on these companies in 1996 was about
85/90 million $Aus- say 65 mill US )
Also, the income tax of any miners thrown out of
work will be lost, and unemployment benefits to them
will be a new cost.
Shareholder who lose on the deal will take losses
to offset capital gains in other sectors, so more
intangible tax revenue will be lost. I cannot see how
this could have been in Australia's interest unless they
were SURE the gold price would fall ANYWAY and close
down ALL THEIR gold mining companies whether they sold
or not.
If this plan is so clear even to fairly brain dead
government bankers how come Gold Mining management
doesnt know about it ( much less us ) . Mining Management
here is trying to do a three year deal with the unions
- why . Can a World Wide secret plan to close down
gold mining be so well kept ( even with Andy Smith
babbling the information to the world pretty well
free of charge at every opportunity ) .
Why did the Aussies do it.
Are CBs stupid? Is mine management stupid? Are my
numbers stupid ( most likely ) . Are investors stupid
Are we all stupid = Tune in next week for the answer
to that question. ( When Im sure Mr hep the cat will
tell us all )


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:28
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Yes. I think Jonathan does the Gold Report and Adrian ( his father ) does the editing. Also, I erred on the date. 1966 should have been 1996. Just like in high school, still having trouble with my dates.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:17
Kitcoite @>(@):

Donald: Van Eck? Is that from Adrian and Jonathan?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:12
Auric @Emergency Room Physician>(@Emergency Room Physician):

RJ @ 04:51--Sorry to hear that you got burned by gold. Think of this as a golden opprtunity. Gold is going to $500 in the next three years, right?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 05:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE PUETZ: Who bought? My gut feeling is the Japanese. However the Van Eck Report ( which has been bullish for several months ) details the following for 1966:
Central Bank Sales

Dutch 300 tons
Belgium 203 tons
16 others 85 tons

Central Bank Purchases:
19 Banks 349 tons

They report that the two largest purchasers were China and Russia during 1996 but don't give any figures. They see Russia as a large future purchaser in their June, 1997, report.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 04:51
RJ Molten Gold>(Molten Gold):
My own 06:26

Green? The stuff is GREEN? All the gold I own is now a blackened, sooty, mass at the bottom of the Nixon cast. I Preheated the acetylene, added the 123 octane, and threw in some piccolo petes for good measure. I knew that I would then have enough raw heat to not just melt that gold, but to actually make it molten. The explosion was tremendous and the aftermath was covered live on all the local news stations. Some of the aerial shots made the network link and CNN broadcast the inferno globally. I was spared death and serious injury buy dumb luck. I was tossed behind my safe by the first blast and the 2 ½ inch steel walls must have protected me. Forgot to close the safe before ignition, so all inside was destroyed.

My physical injuries were relatively mild and I guess the doctors were right when they kept telling me I was lucky. They say my eyebrows will never grow back, which is unfortunate because it makes me look as if I am permanently astonished. The burn in the forehead will heal with time but the scar will remain for life. It wouldn’t be so bad having the imprint of a Maple Leaf staring back at me when I look in the mirror, but people keep asking me what ‘DLOG ENIF 9999.’ means. Interestedly enough, the words right themselves again when reflected back at me. Well, at least I didn’t get the other side of the coin. I couldn’t bear looking in the mirror for the rest of my life with Queen Elizabeth starring back at me.
The doctors let me go home today to pick up the treads of my shattered life. My home was entirely demolished, all my worldly goods, gone. While dejectedly picking through the rubble, I lifted a charred beam and my heart soared! A perfectly intact platinum Maple Leaf! Not even the scorching heat of the initial blast and resulting fireball - which was estimated to be in excess of 3000 degrees - could harm that little beauty. I fell to my knees and wept thankful tears, for I had recently bought a lot of platinum, I was not ruined! I vowed to never forget this painful lesson. Play with gold, and you’ll get your fingers burned ( eyebrows too ) , hold platinum, and your future is bright. All this in response to a question innocently posed, ‘what is the color of molten gold?’


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 04:01
RJ Bottom Fishing>(Bottom Fishing):
Mooney - Regarding your concerns about my silver post of evening last: I obviously was not picking a bottom, but an entry point. I like silver at 4.50, if it goes to 4.40 I'll like it more. This is very different from those who would buy if it hits 4.39. I think the big $ is to be made in the middle. I happy when I get within 10% of a bottom or top, in a volatile market, 20%. The 60 - 80 percent in the middle is where the $ is made. I obviously don't have a clue as to where a bottom of silver or gold is. If I were waiting to buy at the bottom, the 20,000 oz I bought at 4.63, and the 100,000 oz I bought at 4.57 would be in someone else’s hands this moment. I wanted to make no recommendations, only to share what I will look for and where I will most likely buy. These numbers were in response to specific questions.. If I understand your reasoning in your question to me……. Wouldn’t any buying at any level, by you standards, be bottom fishing? My main goal was, in response to questions of methodology, to show that you buy at a good price, because it is a good price. Lacking other factors that weigh against your trade, you must ask, Does it make sense to buy it here? If so, do the trade. There is no bottom fishing here, only an understanding the possibility of silver going lower exists. Why not wait until 4.40 to buy, then? Because it may never happen, ever. We could head back above 5.00 and stay there for years. I would not want to miss that ride, so I like my 4.50 - 4.60 silver. I’m surprised, you seem to have an in depth knowledge of these markets, the preceding was more simple common sense than any trading strategy. Those that wait for their price, rarely see it.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 03:32
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
There seems to be an interesting situation going on with Crystallex KRY.T, an ownership dispute in the Venezuelan Courts, over gold mine being started by Placer Dome. Shares up to 6.60 as people want to get in before Tuesdays expected court decision, in which many expect Placer to lose. But there may be a lot more risk here than meets the eye, and my feeling is to stay away from this one. There has been very little legal information given out in the newspapers and by the company itself, as to the actual details that the dispute. The Peter Grandich newsletter has put out about 10 articles about without in my opinion, giving any clear reasoning as to why he thinks the company is going to win. Not enough discussion of fact going on, too much rumor. As with many things, the lack of clear information to base decisions on has lead to more hype, speculation and unbalanced information being circulated. If they win the shares will do well, but the current share price assumes that they are going to win at least 30% of the property. Very interesting situation, but a lot of money is being bet on this, perhaps without enough due diligence on the part of the buyers I don't know, guess we will see on Tuesday.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 03:23
Blutarsky @The Senate>(@The Senate):

Savage: Your wounds shall be healed. We are not far from a Gold Bull Market.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 03:09
Savage ps.>(ps.):
I also bought last week...and next week I'll probably buy some more ( it's in the plan ) but, I'll probably sprinkle some layered puts along the way ( down ) to provide some braking ( if needed ) . My commodity account has been bleeding...but it's not terminal! ... Please God.......... ( prayers are part of the plan ) .


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 02:53
Savage watching>(watching):
My Friends; Everything has it's own time...it's own rhythm. Fear, greed and excessive hope blocks our ability to recognize the song being played. Each note stands out glaringly in our overinspection to hide the stanza behind. When this is over, we'll all say, why didn't I see that...all I had to do was.... Patience rules. Plan your strategy ahead, ie, if gold ( the price ) does this, I'll do that...and be faithful to your strategy! Someone here said that they didn't care where ( it ) went...I suggest that what they meant was that they were prepared for any event, ( they had a plan ) . .......Everything to it's season. Gold will rise again. Be prepared.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 02:42
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Cmax.... You are doing better than I am, because lately
when I buy, It goes down the SAME day.
PS I also bought last week, and plan to buy more next week.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 01:57
`Mother Theresa @ Administering To The Poor At Kitco>(@ Administering To The Poor At Kitco):

Hey! Who do you think is buying gold? As someone said earlier, Hong Kong, Japan etc., have been buying all the way down to $325. This is the Mother Of All Bottoms.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 01:48
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Earl ( Jul 4 21:41 ) I have been doing my very own unofficial survey on that question for years. Ask people what the backing is behind the currency and 7 or 8 out of ten will say Gold. That's true now in Oz and it was true in North America when I tried it there.

All: Physical gold purchases by ordinary Aussies was up four to tenfold on Friday after the RBA sell off became common knowledge. This is a startling development! It would seem that the common people figure that Gold is now cheap. I will be expanding on this in the next issue of The Privateer - out tomorrow.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 01:40
Just a Lurker underground economy>(underground economy):
Jerry Stratton & Kidsilver:

Jerry, you touched very briefly on the privacy issue of cybercash. This is crucial with respect to gold. If it is not possible to give the masses the perception that private transactions can be had in an electronic system, then gold must flourish. The key words are underground economy

As long as taxes exist there will be a desire to not pay them. The strength of this need correlates directly with the rate of tax. In some important countries cash transactions to avoid taxes are as much as part of the culture as happy hours or an aperatif before supper.

Since paper will no longer be available as a medium of exchange, and assuming no confidence in any type of private electronic cash that leaves only gold. Bartering is an alternative, but it would be a lot less efficient than exchanging pretty pieces of yellow metal.

So either the black market economies of the world will surface and begin kicking in some tax revenues, or they will find another way. Life will find a way.. as stated by Jeff Goldbloom in Jurassic Park I and the same will hold true here. The underground economies will find a way. And the way will be gold.

All you have to do now is ask all the underground economy leaders of the world to send in the GNP numbers and then we can figure out how much gold will be needed to fill the vacuum! I don't know how big the number is, but I bet it would dwarf all the central bank sales that are happening now.






Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 01:31
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Kondratieff :

Excuse me, but may I remind you that your theory is based on a gold monetary
system. You said yourself, that the length of each cycle would be
expanded when the gold backing is removed. If I remember correctly,
you said something about goldless money only being a short term solution
to problems. Now we all know short term is a relative time frame,
even from you. By the way - why didn't you get your book published in
English? I had to read a version translated from german. I hope it
was translated correctly.

One more question: was publishing your papers worth it?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 01:14
Senator Blutarsky @The Wonderful Wizard Of Oz>(@The Wonderful Wizard Of Oz):

Wizard-Don't pull a Niedermeier on me. Aryan Schmaryan, is gold a good buy now, or a good bye?


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:57
The Wizard @ OZ>(@ OZ):
Dear Sen. 'Blut.' and/or 'We',
Do you mean it was that pure, aryan race; rather than a tribe from Asia, that bombed the Pearl ?!






Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:45
Senator Blutarsky (ret) @The Kitco Bash>(@The Kitco Bash):

NOTHING is over until WE say it is. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now. We are going to have a BASH!


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:34
The Wizard @ Ozymandias>(@ Ozymandias):
Dear 6pak et al,
Yes, it's true: Oz, & Switzerland, are one & the same.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:27
POLARBEAR JULY 5TH, NO ONE GIVING GOLD AWAY HERE.>(JULY 5TH, NO ONE GIVING GOLD AWAY HERE.):
re: Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:57

Donald ( @Home ) :

BRAVO!



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:27
Scotty hepcat's.luck>(hepcat's.luck):
Hepcat ( AKA John ) ......you're 325 call was good. However, to be a serious player, you need to be right the next 4 times, as well. I could've just as easily called a 7800 Dow and looked like a hero yesterday. Or called a 7500 Dow and looked like a schmuck. Please tell me what Wednesday next gold will close at. And why it will close there. Also, I need a reading for about 28-30 July when my futures expire.



Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:24
6pak Millions of ounces @ gone where ?>(Millions of ounces @ gone where ?):
Puetz @ 23:34 : I have some gold numbers, that could be of interest.
*Canada* Central Bank, Gold Reserves.
1960.....25.3 oz. ( millions )
1965.....32.9 oz.
1970.....22.6 oz.
1975.....22.0 oz
1980.....21.0 oz.
1985.....20.1 oz.
1990.....14.8 oz.
1997.....03.1 oz. ***************
*USofA*
1960.....508.7 oz
1965.....401.9 oz.
1970.....316.3 oz.
1975.....274.7 oz.
1980.....264.3 oz.
1985.....262.7 oz.
1990.....261.9 oz.
*UK*
1960.....80.0 oz.
1965.....64.7 oz.
1970.....38.5 oz.
1975.....21.0 oz.
1980.....18.8 oz.
1985.....19.0 oz.
1990.....18.9 oz.
*Australia*
1960....4.2 oz.
1965....7.1 oz.
1970....6.8 oz.
1975....7.4 oz.
1980....7.9 oz.
1985....7.9 oz.
1990....7.9 oz.
*Switzerland*
1960....62.4 oz.
1965....86.9 oz.
1970....78.0 oz.
1975....83.2 oz.
1980....83.3 oz.
1985....83.3 oz.
1990....83.3 oz.


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:17
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net):
Dear Steve P., Thank-you for quoting Dr. Kurt Richbacher ( kitco disc. entry of July 4, 1997 22:23 ) . I have part of a newsletter of his,
dated March, 1990 ( No. 203 ) , which quotes Pres. Herbert Hoover, May 1, 1930:: We are not through the difficulties of our situation, but I am convinced we have passed the worst and with continued effort we shall rapidly recover.
The address I have for Dr. Kurt Richebacher's newsletter ( -of March, 1990 ) , is/was as follows.

English Correspondents:
Hahn Capital Partners Inc.
1175 N. Service Rd.
Oakville, Ont., Canada


Date: Sat Jul 05 1997 00:05
Puetz @ Kondratieff>(@ Kondratieff):
Kondratieff: Be more specific. You speak in circles. What exactly are you trying to say?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:50
Kondratieff @cycle-time>(@cycle-time):
Dear Kondrateiff students,

I appreciate so much, your discussion groups, and various web-sites, including: http://www.1-888.com/longwave/olafg.html; and, http://weber.u.washinton.edu/~krumme/207/development/longwaves.html .

I first re-learned of myself, Kondrateiff, in about 1972, or '73, most likely, thru a financial publication such as The Bank Credit Analyst, or some other financial/economic/investment newsletter.

The collaborative update of my work, for this 20th century period, suggests that
either spiraling inflationary, or spiraling deflationary pressures are
about to take hold, not only in the U.S., but world-wide.

Furthermore, my current interpretation, is that the world, as you earthlings know it/experience it, is actually based on, and operates on,
a consistent cycle, or rhythm, or heart-beat, of 52 years.

One can take this number, and divide it by four, as in 4 - seasons, so to
speak. Then, it is possible to identify economic
boom & bust cycles: boom - being 'economic-spring & economic-summer'; and bust - being 'economic-fall & economic-winter'. It is also reasonably clear that various international, military, politcal, social, and cultural changes/periods -- of expansion; contraction/stasis/staus-quo; and turmoil/upheaval; also tend to concentrate, or turn, on or near, these important 'turning-point years' ..... give or take a few.

The proverbial turning-point years, and cycle periods, for this
century, according to this perspective, are as follows.

spring: 1890 - 1903
summer: 1903 - 1916
fall: 1916 - 1929
winter: 1929 - 1942
spring: 1942 - 1955
summer: 1955 - 1968
fall: 1968 - 1981
winter: 1981 - 1994
spring: 1994 - 2007

Bear in mind that these turning-point years, although useful, and
perhaps 'verifiable' by major events that coincide, or almost coincide,
with them; it is important to allow for the 'rubber-band-effect', or
the 'accordian-effect'. This flexibility will thus include the possibility that history, does not always, turn on your dime,
so to speak.



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:43
GMT WEBSITE gmr97@usa.net>(gmr97@usa.net):
Free Newsletter covering Gold Stocks.Just email us for FREE subscription
at gmr97@usa.net Visit our website at www.globalminerals.com
regards
GMR


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:42
Puetz @ Gene>(@ Gene):
Gene: The question I ask is this: Who has a better understanding of stock market valuations, the Bank of International Settlements and Alan Greenspan ( who warn of over-valuation and irrational exuberance ) or the hords of baby boomers and Generation-X investors pouring into the markets?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:38
Puetz @ Cmax>(@ Cmax):
No one can hit the bottom exactly. As long as your purchases are not leveraged, you will be happy with them in the long-run.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:35
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
To George S. Cole, When Mr. Hashimoto complained that the US was not acting to stabalize its financial markets was he talking about the bond market or was he talking about the stock market. Everyone assumes he was talking about the bond market but perhaps he is worried about a financial collapse triggered by the over inflated US stock market. If he was, he would want the US to raise interest rates sufficiently to bring down the stock market. Recently the BIS issued a warning about the destabilizing effect of the inflated US stock market. What do you think?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:34
Puetz @ 6pak>(@ 6pak):
6pak: I don't know the exact figure. But, in 1990, Canada had something like 20 million ounces of gold. Now they have 3.1 million. Essentially, they have no more gold to sell. The same is true for Australia, Belgium, and The Netherlands.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:29
Cmax @CORRECTION>(@CORRECTION):
Correction:
P.S. During the last year and a half, gold ALWAYS goes down the day after
I buy ( really! ) , so I'll post next time I buy, and *you had* better short like hell. ( This is just getting too depressing, bought another 400oz yesterday morning. )




Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:22
Cmax @the Central Bank shell game>(@the Central Bank shell game):
What is so complicated as to who are the players buying all the gold?
Gold perception is obviously manipulated.
Gold debasement is necessary to continue the equities Ponzie game.
Gold perception must be low, at all costs, to maintain the game a little longer.
So w h y can't these buyers SIMPLE be the same Central Banks, basically selling the same gold to each other, then giving truthfull and timely press releases of the amounts that were sold. I guess you could call this a white lie in comparison to the equities scam.

P.S. During the last year and a half, gold ALWAYS goes down the day after I buy ( really! ) , so I'll post next time I buy, and short like hell. ( This is just getting too depressing, bought another 400oz yesterday morning. )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:21
6pak Canada @ Gold Sales>(Canada @ Gold Sales):
CANADA SELLS NO GOLD IN JUNE

Ottawa, June 04 ( Reuter ) Canada sold no gold in June, the Finance
Department said Friday. Its holdings remained at 3.1 million ounces
as of June 30, the Department said.

The Canadian Government has a policy of gradually selling off its
gold reserves and replacing them with interest-bearing assets.

http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/home.html


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:16
Puetz @ Distribution of Economic vs. Financial>(@ Distribution of Economic vs. Financial):
WW: Yes, you can distribute copies of my explanation of Economic conditions vs. Financial conditions. The only thing I ask is that you include my address with the distributed materials: The Steve Puetz Letter, 2800 Wilshire Ave., West Lafayette, IN 47906.

I am pleased to see that my most recent letter was such a big hit. This is the best response I have gotten in quite a while. A great number of people have thanked me for explaining this difference -- an important difference that they were unaware of.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:03
WW @New England>(@New England):
A SALUTE TO S. PEUTZ ( PITTS ) regarding his letter juxtaposing the economicl situation versus the financial situation. I have never seen anyone state it better and more accurately. If Steve is right it explains the frantic efforts to keep the bubble growing. Steve can we copy this for redistribution? You state the facts accurately and this is a useful piece in understanding the big picture. Thanks!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 23:01
Mooney @Goldbug23>(@Goldbug23):
My guess is that Green is not one of Kodak's favourite colours. ( But of course Silver is, as it is also one of mine! )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:54
Vieserre home>(home):
STEVE PUETZ: Touche', as to the 29 market. As to whom the ACB sold to, wire reports I read speculate that a bullion bank bought it and has been feeding it into the market so as not to unduely affect price. Reportedly, this can easily be accomplished by such a bank. Your question deserves a broader answer. Who has been buying all the gold that has been sold by the shorts, hedgers, CB selling and leasees during the past year. Once gold is sold, the seller cannot sell it again. So who are the buyers and what are they doing with it. Seemingly, the sales are more than can be absorbed by fabrication demand and COT reported commercial net longs. Yet, one does not hear of this side of the story.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:53
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
Mooney: Every picture I have ever seen of molten gold has had a red tint to it so the green is a surprise to me. Have never ever seen it poured. Live and learn. I did not want to use red on this thread as many of us have had bad experience in the red with the yellow metal of late. Just a play on words, I thot. What's wrong with those pictures?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:52
Auric @English Major>(@English Major):

Steve Puetz- Them Wolverines and Buckeyes won't have it all to themselves in Footall this year. Neither will all them gold bears.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:46
WW @New England>(@New England):
July 4th Barbecue warning. If you see somebody a little overweight/breathing heavily as they barbecue for kids and relatives and wife is yelling orders/ dont worry this is normal 4th of July response. If he is spewing anything about gold call 911 as emergency trauma care is immediately necessary. If in States avoid state hospitals and use private for this patient.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:26
Puetz @ Auric>(@ Auric):
Auric: First, the Boilermakers have a new football coach this year. You won't see them in the cellar anymore!!! Second, I think the buyer had to be a big buyer -- probably another Central Bank.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:23
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Vieserre: The stock market wasn't a good leading indicators of the economy in 1929. Given the slew of indicators pointing to recession and deflation, it's not a good leading indicators this time, either. As Dr. Kurt Richebacher said in his latest letter: The psychiatrists have a phrase for this type of behavior: the [stock market] patient is 'in denial' of reality.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:20
Auric @Go Boilermakers>(@Go Boilermakers):

Steve Puetz-Re: Buyers of Gold--Good question. My guess is Soros, Templeton, Hong Kong, and possibly Japan's Central Bank. What are your thoughts?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:18
OZ @ozymandias>(@ozymandias):
Perhaps the Australian Central Bank, sold all that stuff, to those in the 'interior', the aboriginals.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:17
Puetz @ prediction>(@ prediction):
I see fireworks in the markets next week.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:14
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
I'm not as poetic or knowledgeable as most on this site, and my grammer
stinks,so ( bear ) with me.... Being a Canuck who has experienced the 87 market and what I've seen the governments do in past years, I'm certain there is a rainbow going to appear after this monsoon is over. I've posted before , that Japan holds the cards in this game of economic warfare.But there is still a chance of Billy shooting himself in the foot!!Complacence is running wild on the Dow & TSE.
1987 x 5 IMHO


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:05
Puetz @ Question of the day>(@ Question of the day):
It's now old news that the Australian Central Bank sols a big chunk of gold. However, for every seller, there's a buyer. I want to know who bought that gold from Australia. Anyone have any ideas?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 22:00
Trevor thorn@voyager.co.nz>(thorn@voyager.co.nz):
Congratulations,America.Just watching the stunning pictures from Mars down here in New Zealand.Have completely forgotten about the Gold Price.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:41
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Bill Buckler @21:23: Your comments regarding currency backing may be more relevant than they appear on the surface. Given the sorry level of financial understanding by the average citizen, it may be a widespread 'belief' that gold does indeed stand behind every one of those paper dollars. ..... The idea would make for an interesting survey.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:32
Auric @The Indy $523>(@The Indy $523):

Mooney @ 21:10-Yes sir, you are correct. Five-two- three it is!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:30
WW New England>(New England):
The Germans dont want to sell gold the Japanese talked about buying it/ They needed this timely announcement of old news!! The other spin had gold not collapsed might have been about its stability and the orderliness of the decline given huge CB sales and that the Aussie news was old and Japanese had actually mentioned buying ala Hashimoto. NEWS FOLLOWS PRICE/ CAPITAL FLOWS FOLLOW NEWS!!!.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:23
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
George Cole ( Jul 4 19:51 ) George, the Aussie miners *are* mad as hell. So is the West Australian govt, the state where most mining and exploration takes place. BTW, the WA govt is the same party as the Federal govt.

I watched four separate newscasts on Oz TV last night and the gold sale was top story on every one of them. Has been top stories in the quality papers for two straight days now. One trader, interviewed on camera, pointed out the fact that the income from the bonds that the RBA is buying with the proceeds from the gold sale will all go straight into the govt. coffers.

I have in the past tried the experiment of asking ordinary people what they think the backing behind their currency is. In most cases, the answer is Gold. The huge media coverage inside Oz of this action by the RBA is potentially very damaging to the govt. It will be interesting to see what public reaction - if any - is over coming days.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:15
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE HENRY: Are you there lurking? CNN now showing photos from Mars. End of 10K plated gold chain stretching to USA Shopping Mall is clearly visible! Congratulations on a great call!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:14
WW @New England>(@New England):
Vieserre: I agree with you and Peutz about eventual gold buying but lets look at the current situation. Wall St warehouses bonds/ Wall St receives fees for assets under management and from underwriting/stock transactions etc. The govt has more money to spend if interest rates are low, further incumbents tend to be re elected when there are alot of feel good stories generated by the stk mkt advance and not by hearing about slowdowns and bankruptcies which would be the stories if stk prices had other than a perfunctory declinre ( believe me it would feed on itself and create more bad headlines ) . RIGHT NOW the worry is about higher rates caused by either a weak dollar ( the econ weakness problem ) or inflation expectations and higher rates ( which will adversely affect the aforementioned's interests ) . So gold is a target. When DEFLATION is obvious they will have openly lost the strong econ argument and when it is in full swing they may buy gold. Talk of deflation is not there yet we are still conversing about low inflation as being good. This wont change until stks start to plummet.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:10
Mooney @Auric>(@Auric):
Auric - Re: Your 19:24 - WRONG! The #1 answer would be Five Three Two!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:03
Speed @home>(@home):
Stock market correction to begin next week. Cause: Louis Roukeyser is going on vacation. His vacations are a nearly perfect indicator. The only bear on his show tonight ( looking decidedly uncomfortable ) recommended shorting Homestake. oi vey


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 21:01
Donald @Home>(@Home):
OOPS: My last should have read, January, 1980.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:58
Vieserre home>(home):
WW Your views are well-presented and taken. I cannot dispute that the ACB sale was previously in the market which may account for the market action, and that the Comex action at the end of the market close suggests it was premediated. For someone to lay off as many contracts as DA reported means to me that it was thought out in advance.

But I canot accept that this was done to protect financial and stock instruments, and gold cannot be allowed to rise in view of this. To take this position means that gold will never rise, and if that is the view, what will happen to gold when the shorts cover, as they will ultimately. Or will this expected rise also be prevented somehow. And who are these governmental surrogates that are willing to risk funds on behalf of the stock market and for the benefit of short players. And would not the same financial concerns be presented if gold were to collapse in price as being a sign of pending deflation as Steve contends and why would not the government support gold in view of this. Questions are just phrased to consider and not necessarily to respond to.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
All: How does this fit. We are at a mirror reversed image of January. Then we were dealing with a manic gold market, inflation was rampant, mortgages were 18%, T-Bills were 11%, the long bond was 14% and nobody would buy a stock. You couldn't give them away. The Dark Ages were just around the corner and everybody...I mean everybody but me... was stocking food in the bomb shelters. The Russians would be on the beaches within days. Well...what happened? EVERYBODY WAS WRONG.

Fast Forward to today...Exactly the reverse...EVERYBODY wants stocks, nobody wants gold, even the CB's. This is Nirvana, the business cycle is dead, we will never have a recession, the budget will be balanced by 2002. Every stock investor in America thinks that the effluent from his sewer should be pumped directly to Carvel for resale to lucky customers. His stocks keep going up, up, up. He is a genius. How did America grow 260M geniuses in 17 years? Where were these geniuses in 1980?

Can it be possible that everybody is wrong again? Could just the reverse happen again? CB's are just people like us, they can be just as dead wrong as anybody else. This whole negative stuff about gold bothers me. You can't dump 6000 years of tradition on one Fourth of July weekend. Even if gold drops to 200 bucks what do I care if I can buy the Dow for the next runup at 400? Sounds like a good deal to me.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:57
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Just posted my Aussie Gold stocks page reflecting trading on Friday, July 4. Of 34 stocks covered, 20 are at 52-week lows. That is, of course, in stark contrast to the Aussie market as a whole which is marginally below all time highs.

It is obvious that there was bargain hunting going on in these stocks during the day, as most of them closed above their lows. Depending on your viewpoint, the Aussie Gold sector represents either a wasteland, or a smorgasbord.

URL of the Aussie Gold stock page is http://www.the-privateer.com/goldprod.html

Some related musings:

Aussie Reserve Bank made announcement of Gold sale at midnight local time. This is 10:00 AM EST in the U.S. and obviously timed to co-incide with market opening. Can you imagine the Fed or a major U.S. govt agency announcing a major policy move at midnight?

Re: Gold as an investment vs Gold as insurance. IMO, everyone should own physical Gold - as INSURANCE against financial upheaval. If you don't own any, someone is holding a fire sale. Even if the price declines from here, you are getting financial insurance at a very cheap price.

Then there is Gold as an INVESTMENT. Here, you should treat it no differently than you treat any other investment. In fact, you should be more careful with Gold as an investment because of the manipulated nature of its price. RJ's posting ( Jul 4 1:30 AM ) gave a masterful account of how to TRADE gold - or anything else. The mere fact that he has been doing it since 1984 ( which, co-incidentally, was the year that The Privateer began publication ) is adequate proof that he knows what he's doing. If he didn't, he would no longer be doing it.

Re Gold bottoms: These are ever and always only recognizable *after* the fact. On my web page showing Gold bottoms back to 1976, the important bar on the chart is the one that *confirms* the bottom, not the one which *is* the bottom. The bar that confirms the bottom also confirms a trend change. If you look at the bottom charts - at http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html - you will see
that in every case, the downtrend has to be broken for a bottom to be confirmed.

That's what recently happened to the $A Gold price chart. The downtrend was broken ( on a P&F basis ) . The subsequent downmove all the way back to previous lows is unusual, to say the least, but it is just one more illustration that using Gold as a trading vehicle is a potentially very dangerous pastime. I probably shouldn't be, but I am constantly amazed by the number of people who e-mail me wanting to know my predictions of how low Gold can go and what its precise bottom will be. I DON'T KNOW - and neither does anyone else.

I am perfectly sanguine about Gold as insurance. Gold as investment? I'm perfectly happy to wait and see.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:54
WW @New England>(@New England):
Vieserre: My friend news follows price so the reason there appears to be no reason for gold to rally is that the news relating to gold is negative b/c of its price action. The converse is true of financials/ if they are rising it good economy no inflation etc. If they were falling and gold rising it would be ALL PRESENTLY TRUErising bankruptcies portend credit problems for financial institutions slowdown might turn into recession Retail sales slowing etc. Gold Rises as slowing economy fear generated by slowing sales may lead to higher deficits as dollar slides. In sum the headlines create the background for the investment decisions which affect the capital flows into the mkts. All the foregoing are true but the market action dictates the spin. Control the mkts and control the spin. The reason for the manipulation and spin is to manufacture the sentiment which affects capital flows and mkt prices and thus headlines which affect capital flows. The mkts are so extended this is why they have to go to extreme lengths to keep it going. Your seeing no reason for gold to rise is testament to the success of their strategy. What has changed is the intensity and exquisite timing/this shows they are riding the horse hard. Steve Peutz's letter re the divergence between the economic numbers and the financial situation is perfect with respect to what is happening and WHAT THEY KNOW.

nuf said.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:52
MoreGold @Bear Mania>(@Bear Mania):
If we applied this amount of bearish sentiment to stocks, the DOW
would be at 2000.

Friday, July 4, 1997
Gold crashes to 12-year low

News that Australia has been unloading bullion in a big way sparks market rout; analysts predict the price collapse still has some way to run

By PAUL BAGNELL
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
The market for gold turned from dismal to ugly yesterday, as the price of bullion hit a 12-year low and experts predicted more declines are on the way.
 Traders and analysts blamed yesterday's startling price drop on the unexpected news that Australia has sold 167 tonnes of gold over the past six months.
 In New York, the cash price of an ounce of gold for July delivery fell US$7.10 to US$324.20 after a half day of trading on the Comex exchange. At one point, the price slid as low as US$323.65.
 That was the lowest price since Feb. 25, 1985, when it dipped to US$284.25.
 Traders said yesterday's abbreviated trading day may have contributed to gold's demise. U.S. exchanges closed about 1 p.m. eastern time yesterday, in advance of today's Independence Day holiday.
 The gold price has been crumbling steadily in recent months. On June 4, the metal was selling for US$341.25 an ounce, while on Feb. 28 it traded at a six-month high of US$363.45.
 Yesterday, traders and analysts couldn't point to a single positive sign in the gold market.
 The Australian announcement, they said, came as a big surprise.
 The Reserve Bank of Australia said it saw negligible benefits from holding a significant proportion of its international reserves in the form of gold, given the country's status as a major gold producer.
 Although the market has been facing the prospect of more European central banks selling some of their gold -- following sales by the Netherlands in January and Belgium in March 1996 -- Australia had not been expected to join the group.
 No one imagined we were going to get this news out of the Australians, said Victor Flores, a Texas-based gold analyst for Marleau, Lemire Inc. of Montreal.
 It's pretty shocking that even a big gold producer doesn't care about protecting the gold price.
 Aside from the selling pressure spawned by the fear of further central bank sales, the bright outlook for competing investments such as equities and the US$ are also dampening gold's prospects.
 The overall atmosphere for gold is not good, said Walter Baici, a gold trader at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto, citing recent gains in bonds and a declining oil price as even more bad news for gold.
 Central bank sales have spooked the market because the banks had traditionally been among the long-term holders of bullion, Baici said.
 Martin Murenbeeld, a gold analyst in Victoria, B.C., said stepped up short selling of gold by speculators is another likely factor behind the recent price collapse.
 The latest data I have is that the large specs are heavily short, and it's almost certain that they have increased their short position in recent days, Murenbeeld said.
 And there is enough fundamental evidence to suggest that is not a bad position.
 The share prices of gold producers on the Toronto Stock Exchange were also down sharply. The TSE's gold and precious minerals subindex dropped 207.11 points, or 2.49%, to 8126.53.
 Among the biggest losers were Royal Oak Mines Inc. ( RYO/TSE ) , which fell 20¢ to $2.95, a decline of 6.3%, and Bema Gold Corp. ( BGO/TSE ) , which suffered a 6.5% decline, falling 55¢ to $7.90.
 Flagship stocks Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. were also down. Shares of Barrick ( ABX/TSE ) eased 65¢ to $29.45, while Placer Dome ( PDG/TSE ) fell 60¢ to $21. 80.
 The selloff of gold stocks could have been worse, said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Inc. of Toronto.
 I think we reached the capitulation stage earlier, Ing said. Most portfolio managers I've talked to have already lowered their [gold-related] weightings.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:46
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net):
Thank-you: Donald, for your earlier reply, & Aurophile, for your more recent one. And, taking a cue & a pun, off of spin, from WW :

Here's another spin, reportedly from one U.S. 'Founding Father', to another ( -from John Adams, in a letter to Thomas Jefferson ) :
All the perplexities, confusions, and distresses, in America, arise not from defects in the Constitution or confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, as much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.

And one of the Founding Fathers ( Happy 4th of July to everyone ) ) is also reported to have said some thing like this: If the American people, ever allow their nation's banking system, to control money and credit, first by inflation, then by deflation; one day, their children will wake-up homeless, on the continent their fathers conquered.

spin ( a poem: )

spin, spinning weaver
spin
just to begin again

Question: If money makes the world go 'round....what makes it stand still?
Answer: It is in the question.

I've been prompted, by the discussions/dialogue herein, to look for old 'notes & quotes', from my old files, of 20 to 25 years ago. Neither the above quotes, nor the following ones, are to be read/accepted, as literal/verbatim; nor otherwise accepted as if from verifiable sources.

Shakespeare: We at the heighth, are ready to decline. There is a tide ( time ) , in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to victory. Omitted, all the balance of their lives, may be lost, in shallows, and in miseries. On such a full sea, are we now a-float. We must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.

from a newsletter, by one T.J. Holt, from Feb. 2nd, 1990: Again, it will appear as though things are tumbling all at once, suddenly and without warning. In reality, however, the crash has already ocurred -- not on the surface, where it's visible to all; but rather deep in the balance sheets of large corporations, local governments, banks, insurance companies and individual households. All that remains to happen is
a relatively rapid transition from the hidden world of ratios and statistics, to the real world of people and markets.

Henry S. Reuss ( - late '60s/early 70's, Demo. from Wis., & past chrm. of the House Banking & Currency Committee ) : With gold no longer playing
a major role in the international monetary system, its price will sink
to its value in the arts -- something much closer to $6.00 an ounce, rather than the current $35.00.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 'International Letter', 13 June 1975:
Future Treasury sales are contemplated. The Government's offer to sell it's gold to private users, underscores the progress toward reducing the monetary role of gold.

Reginald McKenna, 19th century pres. of the 'Midlands' Bank of England: Those who create and issue the money and credit; direct the policies of government, and hold in their hands, the destiny of the people.

Cicero, of 'Rome', 2,000 yrs. ago, more or less: The budget should be balanced. The treasury should be refilled. Public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of officials should be tempered and controlled, and assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest we become bankrupt.

Luwig von Mises: Government is the only agency, that can take a useful commodity like paper, slap some ink on it, and make it totally worthless.

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:39
MoreGold @best stock in case of recovery>(@best stock in case of recovery):
Strad Master: I would go with the blue chip of Gold producers, Barrick ABX. Not the time to buy yet though. I think it will follow bullion down, and stabilize only when some hope is restored to the Gold market.
As i've said many times before, the CB's seem to want to replace mines as suppliers of Gold, for now.
IMHO, Gold will continue to decline until producers begin announcing mine closures, which will send a signal to shorts that their party may be neering the end.
We're going to have some strange times ahead.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:33
WW @New England>(@New England):
Vieserre: The 11:12 Am EDT London dissemination means it was known hours before as I doubt the Aussies made the annoucement in London at 3 am their time. It could have been done by surrogates in London but that would be unusual Somebody definitely knew this info well before us open. Further mkt participants must have been aware because of the selling over the last few months. The financial communities continual bashing and ambushing of gold raises very interesting questions. The intensity of the ambushing of late perhaps portends crisis. If the financials are really so strong and stable why not layoff gold and let it rally 30-40 bucks. Or do they know if they did that now the cat would be out of the bag. Remember the debt/leverage and expectations in the economy and mkts are at a feverish pitch compared to 1993. Over a trillion in stks since that time. Further, when the crisi occurs they want bonds to be the safe haven.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:28
Vieserre Now for the Rest of The Story>(Now for the Rest of The Story):
WW, George S. Cole: with due respect for your views, I am not one to believe that all events contributing to the fall of gold are due to governmental conspiracy or devious action. To do so would completely discredit Gold's role as an economic indicator. There are presently no wars or any visible serious crisis to deal with. Significant global inflation is not found anywhere, and prices are continuing to decline, even in Argentina, Italy and Brazil. Thus, is this not what gold is responding to. If there were wars or significant danger of inflation, would there not be more investor demand and would there be as much CB selling. CB gold selling may merely be masking the real reason for the decline of gold.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:11
WW @New England>(@New England):
GSC With Gold's low price and no investor demand really it has been de facto demonetized. Perhaps what they are trying to prevent is de facto remonetization. Fact is that Gold monetary value relates to investor perceptions and the CBs can only try to direct capital to control that. At the end of the day they can never eliminate gold as a monetary asset.
What more can they do but eliminate investor demand as they have through psychological warfare.

I agree HASHIS comments could have started a perceived new floor under gold/ the Aussie story, its timing AND MOST IMPORTANTLY its spin are to suppress gold. The hashi statement and the strongly bullish commitment of Traders made them feel that gold needed to be broken more than a paltry 10 dollars from the line in the sand falling 100 day moving average. In sum the Aussie story and its aftermath are to stem any capital flow into the market that might have been developing. Maybe Soros who was rumored to purchase from Aussies. Remember what he did in 93/ Punish George and no 93 repeat in this environment if we can help it.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:11
Vieserre home>(home):
George S. Cole: Thanks, I will be compelled to agree with your bearish viewpoint if we do not get an Asian rally Sunday evening. I was hoping the XAU was forming a bottom, but if it breaks down, it will just be another resistance layer to overcome on the way up.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:04
Vieserre home>(home):

George S. Cole: I have a conundrum for you. Assuming both stock market performance and gold are reasonably reliable economic indicators, the US and other global rising stock markets suggest strong economic growth in the future which should be supportive for gold. And gold's price performance suggests otherwise. Why the divergence, unless there will be economic growth with continued disinflation. Is this in your mind a non-sequitur or are we in a new economic paradigm.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 20:02
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):
G.S. Cole: You can find TSE indices on dbc.com. Use $tt-tc for composite; $gl-tc for gold; $og-tc for oil; gcm7 for Chicago gold futures; $xau for xau; $tnx for 10 yr t-bills ( US ) ; crq7 for Chicago futures. You can list up to ten at one time and get them back as a table. Add table to bookmarks to update later.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:56
Vieserre The Borg>(The Borg):

WW I thought of that. But the news item lead: Thursday July 3 11:12 AM EDT.... Ldn gold fixes barely up on Australian sales news means it was in the London Gold market before it closed and price was up. There was a lot of time for market participants in the US to digest it before the close. And if the story is why the market sold off, they all must have collectively arrived at the same opinion at the same time.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:51
George Cole ACB sale>(ACB sale):
VIESSERE: The health of the Aussie gold mining industry seems to be the least of the ACB concerns. Doing Alan and Bob's bidding is much more important. The ACB sales were criticized today by the World Gold Council at the behest of its Australian memebers. The OZ miners must be mad as hell.

The fact that gold didn't recover today is quite bearish short-term. The shorts are confident their already considerable profits can only grow larger.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:48
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:40
George Cole The gold war>(The gold war):
Donald: Thanks for the URL!

WW: I too have noticed that every time something happens that could be positive for gold, massive selling quickly develops to smash the price. I think this latest smash has a lot to do with Hashimoto's comments which briefly sent bullion a few bucks higher. There obviously are powerful financial forces extent today who consider it their duty to smash gold every time it raises its head an inch or two. Probably Greenspan and Rubin together with some pliant foreign CBs and key elements of the Wall Street and international banking establishments. When Andy Smith speaks about gold being demonetarized, he is telling us the objectives of this group.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:40
WW @New England>(@New England):
Thanks Vieserre. However, what was the percise time the announcement FIRST came over the wire or was otherwise generally knowable by the market place. Thanks!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:33
Vieserre Timing of the ACB Announcement>(Timing of the ACB Announcement):
WW: that is also how I saw the earlier report unfolding. I was encouraged when the report first came out that the XAU was handling the news so well. It reinforced a hope that a rally was forthcoming. I left the market before the close and was surprised to see the drop at the end, and more so, the explanation for it. But the trade knows this, and a question I have is why has not gold recovered today more than it has.

The second question I have is why did the ACB make the announcement when it did. Since they waited so long from the time of the sale, why not wait until all the gold has been delivered or make the announcement in a year end report or at a more favorable time when gold is recovering in price. To suggest that they did it to cause the price of gold to fall makes no sense as this would contribute to further harming their gold mining industry. Some earlier news comments suggested that the news may be considered bullish as the sale was already in the market, and the ACB raised its hands in the air. Perhaps, this may have been what the ACB mistakenly counted on.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:25
Retired @maybeit was BT>(@maybeit was BT):
I know it is slightly late, but what if the drop in gold was really what Big Trader was predicting after all?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:24
Auric @Letter Man >(@Letter Man ):

The Top Ten 325 anagrams. 10. The oft viewer 9.Voter with fee. 8. Ore view theft. 7. Where vote fit. 6. Voter thief we. 5. With free vote. 4.Free with veto. 3. Overt thief we. 2.Feet over with. And the Number One 325 anagram-- THREE FIVE TWO.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:23
panda @SWC>(@SWC):
CC -- Proven and probable reserves are about 34 million ounces of platinum and palladium. With that much, why bother to measure it all? :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:17
WW @New england>(@New england):
Mike S. Sorry Feds can do what they want with $. Mkt place is only real regulator. Further you probably have no standing and the feds provided comp for the taking.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:10
DJ More SWC>(More SWC):
CC: I don't have my files with me, so can't be of much help. You can find a great deal of info at:

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swc.html


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 19:08
WW @New England>(@New England):
I heard someone say the Aussie announcement was made before our opening. If it was made during the close than that means our Australian friends make major announcements at 1AM their time methinknot. When do they sleep. Someone please clarify.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WW: How about a cizizens arrest of the Governor of each state for violation of Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution. Look it up.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER: Glad you are here. I read your piece and now that I know your head better I want to recommend a book to you. A World Lit Only by Fire by William Manchester. There is very little reference work about the Dark Ages. This book covers it well. You have to hope that all of us are wrong about how bad, and how quickly, things can unwind.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:47
Mike Sheller Does it suit you?>(Does it suit you?):
WW: Now that I brush by you in the Kitco hall...so what's your answer on the class action suit against the Fed for taking the people's gold in '34? We need you! I'm in for half a K-Rand if you say yes! Think of the publicity, Man!!!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:46
Speed @home>(@home):
CC: More on Stillwater. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931948/0001014909-97-000004.txt

The SEC database is really good for required filings. Backup the above link to EDGAR and search on any company. The 10-k is the annual statement and the 10-q is the quarterly. Enjoy.

WW: So what are we to believe? I'm turned around worse than a turkey in a tornado. If I get out with any feathers left, I won't know which way to fly! Gold is continuing to be worth less while promises made by the paper pushers are worth more. I'm going to fire up the bbq, it is a beautiful day.
P.S. The only investment I ever made that has gone up every year in value was in training and education and it's a good thing because my other investments are guaranteeing me at least 30 more years of hard labor! : )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:41
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Close prices for TSE: ABX 28.20; ECO 7; PDG 20.40; TVX 6.75.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:40
Mike Sheller pensive>(pensive):
I wish to correct a misunderstanding concerning me that has appeared on Kitco. I myself am NOT voluptuous. ( though it may be true the middle is spreading just a tad ) . I may be a voluptuary, however. But only on occasion. RJ: With you on silver. Hi Yo!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:39
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STRAD MASTER: Bema Gold had US$5.50 in book value when gold was $350 ( as I recall ) better do a new review to be sure.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:35
OJ @Rubin ......Yes Alan !>(@Rubin ......Yes Alan !):

The Markets....

Alan, mid -air refueling is ok with fighter jet but... what do we do with our hot air balloon ?

Well Rubin better to find a trick before it hits the fan...below.



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:31
WW @New England>(@New England):
Gold was up after the Aussie announcement for three hours then plunged at the end of the day. In other words the mkt didnt react to the news. Now the news of the fall of gold is out it is stated that the Aussie announcement is the reason yet the price did not react until the end of the day. So really the Aussie announcement had nothing to do with it but the way the news is reported will affect how others act. Imagine if gold had closed up by the mkt closing at 11AM. Gold up in spite of Aussie announcement. Someone decided IT HAD TO BE DOWN. Now the Aussie announcement as reason for the fall will create additional fallout.
Are the financials getting out of control and they want to make dam sure gold is out of favor when the collapse starts so maybe US dollar and bonds will be safe haven. They are talking about how galling it is that Aussie sold as it is the third largest producer. Why is this galling HOW ABOUT CANADA AND RUSSIA. The spin is unbelieveable.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:29
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Aurophile: Thank you for the kind words at 15:34. I do miss the old days at 380-370 when I took days to figure out what I wanted to do. Selling virtually all my precious metals stocks then was a real difficult job. I think things are getting down to important levels now.

Get to the cost of production less a few bucks and then buy the best looking marginal mine ( s ) you can find--with money you can afford to loose. That, I think, is the only thing I have posted here in the past year that looks like my plan for the future --so it may be the last such post as well.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:29
Strad Master #1 Best Gold Stock?>(#1 Best Gold Stock?):
ALL: A friend of mine, who is a small-time investor in teh stock market, asked me to ask y'all what would likely be the single strongest gold stock to buy options on in the event of a rise in gold prices. Even he ( a dyed-in-the-wool bull ) is amazed at the runup in the stock markets and the concurrent decline in gold and feels that something's gotta give soon. Since I'm not in the stock market at all, I don't follow gold stocks ( other than the XAU ) , so I couldn't answer. I'm sure someone here would have a good recommenmdation. Many thanks.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:25
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GEORGE S. COLE: Try this. Courtesy of Selby yesterday.

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:22
Speed @home>(@home):
CC: Try this for Stillwater http://www.stockfind.newsalert.com/MGI/SNAP/A0933-CS.htm


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:16
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
gone for dinner on the 18th green, symphony with cannons, fireworks, and happiness to be alive in my great fatherland. cheers all. bbml.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:14
Bob @...Nesbitt Burns morning conference call on gold>(@...Nesbitt Burns morning conference call on gold):
FYI... ( 416 ) 695-9811...code 4223...then 01


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:08
George S. Cole The Bears' Den>(The Bears' Den):
Does anyone have a URl that shows the TSE Gold Index?

Gold consensus now more bearish than ever. Andy Smith talking about drop to $300. Australian gold producers have criticized that nation's gold sales.

Friday July 4, 1997

For gold, at 12-year lows, a dented crown

 LONDON ( Reuter ) - Gold, revered for centuries as the king of investments, woke up on Friday to find another big dent in its
tarnished crown.
  A plunge in the price to near 12-year lows underscored deepening speculator and institutional disillusion with the yellow metal
as a store of value, analysts said.
  Gold bullion was already trading at 41/2 year lows on Thursday when the Australian central bank announced it had sold 167
tons from its reserves over the past six months.
  Speculators, bearish after months of talk of European central bank sales, turned tail and sold gold down nearly $10 an ounce to
below $325 -- levels unseen since 1985.
  If nation states are going to sell, they ask, why hoard?
  The perception among investors is that the short side is the right side to be, because there's a risk premium with central banks
aggressive, not passive, said bullion analyst Andy Smith of Union Bank of Switzerland.
  The Geneva-based World Gold Council described the Australian central bank's gold sales as unnecessary and lacking
sensitivity.
  For a leading gold producer to take unnecessary actions that prejudice the well-being of a key sector of its economy suggest a
lack of sensitivity to the factors impacting the market, the council said in a statement. It said the statement was made at the
request of our members in Australia.
  A second attack on the price by speculative selling could not be ruled out, Smith said. That means a move to $300 an ounce or
lower is likely, several analysts and dealers added.
  The ( Australian news ) was a confirmation that central banks are really tempted to sell gold reserves, said gold analyst Hans
Peter Hausherr of Zurich-based Swiss Bank Corporation. Now the market is further convinced that this will go on, so prices
will go still lower.
  Gold has been trending lower since a recent peak at $418 an ounce in February last year, shunned by investors who preferred
to grow their money on booming Wall Street.
  The slide accelerated this year on a wave of real, proposed and imagined sales from European central banks and other
institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
  Central banks and the institutions hold around 35,000 tons of gold reserves, but they are increasingly considering schemes to
revalue, lend or sell part of their large holdings.
  The new trend to view gold just like any other asset marks a sea change since it took the throne as the ultimate store of value
5,000 years ago when it was first used as money in Egypt.
  From Lydia's King Croesus, who minted pure gold coins around 550 BC, through the Roman Empire to the gold standard
earlier this century, gold was king.
  But as the new millennium approaches, hot stocks, treasury bonds and other financial instruments hold more appeal for
individual investors, hedge funds and central banks alike.
  It's a cascade effect now, a looking over of shoulders. These things aren't done in isolation, other central banks take note, and
clearly not with a view to buy but with a view to sell, Smith said.
  The fact that Australia is the world's third-largest gold producer is particularly galling for gold bulls and domestic miners,
analysts said.
  The sale broadens the sphere of central bank sellers away from Europe where European Monetary Union considerations have
at least provided an excuse ( albeit thinly veiled ) for gold sales, analyst Nick Moore of Flemings Global Mining Group said.
  The uncertainty will also make gold producers more willing to sell forward despite lower prices and less apt to buy back gold
sold previously at higher prices, Smith said.
  If central banks are prowling around there's no given level at which gold will settle, one analyst said.
 




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Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:04
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Puetz: Lest I be misunderstood, let me hasten to add that I will always be a holder of gold and some gold stocks in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, and Tickle-Me-Elmo Dolls....:- )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:02
elli Elli@alphalogic>(Elli@alphalogic):
to BW: I believe the point is, that one can legaly discharge any debt, mortgage by paying in Dollars,- paper money. Paper money has to be accepted and will thereby wipe out such debts, whether the debtholder
or mortagee wants dislikes it or not. One pays in paper money and does not owe anything.
Your analogy regarding pots in the market is well taken but in the present circumstances not applicable.
The worlds ecomomies will never return to transacting or trading with or
in gold values. It is too cumbersome to handle.
Modern economies will use electronic transaction, recorded in bits and
bites on computer terminals.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 18:00
Auric @home>(@home):

George S Cole- Thanks. That makes sense. It is always a question to what extent future negative events are already factored into the price. Aye, there's the rub, eh?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:57
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Puetz: I have been an inflationist ( in the sense of expecting a ramping up of the economic growth rate to 5+% ) since 1992 when the money supply began to expand again. But your point about the shrinking fed debt ( no 30 year bond issued since February and none due until August ) plus the meltdown in the CRB and gold do indeed point to disinflation or worse. You know the Homestake story in the 1930's, but after June 1932 the Dow and the bond market outperformed even Homestake. Of course gold was the only hedge then, and Homestake was just about the only one available to most investors in the US. Now we have a zillion hedges. I am increasingly less comfortable with the idea that gold will outperform bonds or generic stocks as the recognition of disinflation spreads.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:53
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Elli: There are two kinds of dollars. Only the one in your wallet is legal tender. That is a cash dollar and there are $374,000,000,000 of them at last count. Of that total $186,000,000,000 circulate outside the United States.

The second kind of dollar is a credit dollar. It is the kind the bank teller prints in your savings passbook when you deposit a cash dollar.
There are about $55 Trillion credit dollars. ( $55,000,000,000,000 ) . If everyone wanted to exchange his credit dollar for a cash dollar it couldn't be done.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:52
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Foreign Central Banks continue to dispose of US Treasury debt. Since peaking at $653 billion on April 18, 1997, foreign Central Banks have liquidated $22 billion of US Treasuries. Last week, US Treasury holdings dropped another $4 billion.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:50
George S. Cole retiring early>(retiring early):
Donald; If this bull market continues much longer at its present pace, an awful lot of the nation's most talented people ( and quite a few not so talented ) will be able to retire very early and live off the fat of the land. Those why think this bull can continue forever should think about this carefully. Why work when you can make lots of money each year just by holding mutual funds. To raise this question is to see clearly the absurd lenghts to which this bull has gone.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:48
Puetz @ Donald>(@ Donald):
Donald: Most corporations are letting the bull market make monetary contributions instead of the corporation making actual cash deposits into pension funds. When the stock market reverses course, corporations will not only have to resume making pension contributions, but they will have to make up the losses inflicted on the funds by a bear market. These liabilities will be great enough to send most corporations with large pension obligations into bankruptcy.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:43
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Donald: I am not terribly knowledgeable ( meaning I know nothing! ) about the multiplier used by the RBA in leveraging up its own or the commercial banks reserves. But I doubt if it is tremendously different from those available to large hedge funds. The large funds do not actually make their positions on a cash basis. They have enormous lines of credit with multiple bankers and work to a great extent on a credit basis. They do, of course, have paid-in capital and great net worth, but they are quite leveraged.///Hi George Cole! Terrible time to come back, but......


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:42
bw Re: elli, legal tender laws>(Re: elli, legal tender laws):
elli: Legal tender laws have been used from time immemorial in an attempt to force the people to take a known worthless currency. They have never worked, here is why. Suppose I am a street vendor with five pots on my stand and you possess worthless currency. You ask how much my pots cost and I reply. What color is your money ( this phrase may be familiar ) . You go and get a kings man to enforce the law. Suddenly I remember that all my pots have been sold this morning and alas I have nothing left. This little dance will be repeated with every transaction and all the kings men in the world cannot police them. Thus the maxim,-the people decide what money is-. Currently the people think the dollar is fine and will accept it, when that changes ( possibly sooner than we think ) all the laws and bayonets in the world will be powerless to force us to accept a single dollar.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:41
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Deflationary debt contraction: The US government's outstanding debt has been contracting since March. That's right! Debt is contracting! During March 1997 the US Treasury debt stood at $5.379 trillion. Last week it was down to $5.336 trillion. That's only a drop of $43 billion, nonetheless it's a drop.

It seems that tax revenues are increasing because of capital gains from stock investors who are cashing in their chips. With consumers grossly over-extended, on top of government debt contraction, deflationary pressures mount.

Economic depression seems almost certain. Once the stock market turns lower, however, the capital-gains tax-flow will stop in its tracks. Then government debt will explode upward quicker than ever before. However, expected contractions in consumer, mortgage, and coprorate debt will offset increases in government debt -- thus, the deflation will persist.

Much of this debt will be settled through bankruptcies. This deflationary collapse of debt will send worried investors into gold and silver. It will be a flight to quality.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:40
George Cole CB selling>(CB selling):
AURIC: Remember in a bear market all news is bad news. The Australian sale is inducing traders to wonder who will be next. Apparently some expect selling by Portugal soon to meet EMU requirements. Without strong investor demand the lethal combination of cheap CB gold loans and outright CB selling will have little trouble keeping the gold bulls on the ropes.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
STEVE PUETZ: Just came back from a five mile bicycle ride along the beach. It helps to clear the thinking. Have you ever done any work on pension obligations? US law allows a company to withdraw cash from its pension plan as long as the market value of the securities meet actuarial obligations. With this market just short of the moon, how many companies are sucking funds out to pump up the quarterly reports? I bet a bunch are and they will end up being an obligation of the taxpayer some day theough the Pension Benefit Guaranty Insurance Corp. Also, I read ( or heard here ) about the rules for exec options. They apparently don't have to be shown fully diluted. As that is now a huge part of outrageous compensation the P/E stuff we read is all suspect. Just as bad as the Govt. counting on the bull market to 2005. It ain't going to happen. Just one screw has to come loose and the whole thing goes.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:34
aurophile early@close>(early@close):
David: I am showing a last trade ( with volume ) at 13:11 EDT with final settlement at 13:42 for Comex gold. Looks like 1300 for NYSE. Amex I don't know.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:33
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com):
DJ: Do you know the reserves numbers at the Stillwater mine. Or better do you have their phone number or the address of their website if they have one ? Thanks.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:32
George Cole CB sellinmg>(CB sellinmg):
Aurophile: Glad you are back!

Fundy and Selby: Did the Australian Cb ( and other CBs as well ) sell because they think gold is going lower, or because they want to push it lower. I suspect the latter.



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:28
Auric @Caveat Emptor>(@Caveat Emptor):

If Australia already sold their gold prior to July, then has not the price of gold already reflected that fact? Could the case be made that the damage was done, and that yesterday's decline was not a true reflection of that event, but either an emotional reaction, or an opportunistic move by short sellers?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:26
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: When you look at assets of a CB, held as reserves in a fractional reserve system, shouldn't you think of them differently? As high powered money? I am thinking out loud...isn't their impact on the Australian economy greater? How were the Australians showing gold on the books? At free market value? Are they going to show their new securities at market value each reporting period? Does the RBA work like the Fed? The Germans just went through the same process and created an uproar.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:19
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net):
Dear 'Comrades',
Can anyone tell me what time, NY/US time, on July 3, 1997, the US Comex futures markets closed/settled; and what time the US NYSE & ASE stock markets closed/settled, also on July 3, 1997 ... ?
Thank-you.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 17:11
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Este; Australia was certainly an unknown powerful force in the gold area selling large quantities of gold before yesterday. I don't think there is a big secret behind why they sold. They think the price will go lower. If they sold near 350 they were right.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:54
Speed @still waters run deep>(@still waters run deep):
DJ: thanks for the tour of Stillwater. I follow it and will be buying some more soon. Thanks, Bart for this site.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:45
aurophile finally@end>(finally@end):
Donald: The shock value of the Aussie sale is probably greater than the reality. After all, 167 tonnes is less than $2 billion US at $350 per ounce. Not really even a spit's worth compared to BOJ US bond holdings. But it is certainly within the Soros pocket change realm. If BOJ were to get serious they would be wanting 500 to 100 tonnes at least. Also it points up the poverty of a great nation like as Australia for whom 167 tonnes was a large part ( 2/3 ) of their gold holdings but a mere asset allocation for Soros's fund.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:34
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Bema Gold no change on the day. High 8.15, low 7.65, 494,200 shares, 389 trades.

Glamis Gold down .25, high/low 9.50, 3000 shares, 4 trades
All Canadian funds.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:25
Este to Fundy>(to Fundy):
Bill Buckler was asking today why the Aussie CB decided to announce its gold sales at the close of the market ahead of a long weekend in the USA many weeks after the sale took place.
The Aussie CB is not an unnamed powerful force and what happened must have a very logical explanation.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:24
aurophile soros@rba>(soros@rba):
Donald: My stuff re Soros being involved in the gold deal is supposition based upon rumor from an Aussie friend who is a very big trader and well connected to all the trading rooms. It is a fact, however, that he ( GS ) was there and talked to the RBA.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:17
Puetz @ Central Banks are our friends.>(@ Central Banks are our friends.):
Prediction: All of this conspiracy talk and anti-CB talk may soon change. Can you imagine the day when Kitcoites talk positively about Central Banks? During the 1930s, one method of countering the deflationary psychology at the time was to increase the gold price. The government did everything it could to stop inflation.

Governments around the world are under the impression that falling gold prices signal that investors are un-afraid of inflation. But, now, we are entering a deflationary period. Governments fear deflation more than inflation. Once again, don't be suprised to see Central Banks buying gold as the emerging deflation intensifies. This will be their symbolic attempt to counter the deflationary trend.

In that case, talk of Central Bank conspiracy and manipulation will disappear here at Kitco. Instead, Kitcoites around the globe will be asking the question: Did you hug you local Central Banker today?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:13
Donald @Home>(@Home):
AUROPHILE: Soros and the A$. I checked my yesterday postings. At 12:11 I asked if anyone knew what the AD had done. D.A. responded at 12:18 that it was up 10 ticks and the US$ was down .8% vs JY. I was shocked at the answer he gave about the AD. Now your Soros explanation sounds good to me.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:12
aurophile cybergold@present>(cybergold@present):
Puetz: James Turk is putting together a company to provide for a cybergold transaction medium. I have seen the prospectus. The idea is to provide for the convenience and privacy of internet transactions ( with security ) AND with the anchor of being gold-related from beginning to end.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:06
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Miro: Good post at 14:35.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:04
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Donald: Good post at 12:57.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:02
aurophile going@ double>(going@ double):
sorry re double post. despite decreased net traffic today i am having a devil of a time with slow servers which seem to hang.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 16:00
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Jerry Stratton: You wrote a good article explaining Cyber Cash. But Cyber Cash is still a credit-market instrument. It will only work as long as confidence in credit remains strong.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:57
aurophile running@mouth>(running@mouth):
Donald:
Your suggestion of a Japanese/Australian bonds for gold swap is quite plausible given the timing so soon after G-7 ( 8 ) and the Hashimoto remarks. I ( and others too including James Turk ) have thought they ( BOJ ) were trying to do a similar deal with the IMF which has publically committed to selling some gold to do good works.
After overnight reflection I am thinking that the timing may well have been a godsend. They released the info while markets were open in London and New York but before a long weekend to allow it all to react and then to rest.
Perhaps more interesting are the rumors regarding the Soros campaign against the Thai baht AND the Soros interviews with the Australian Reserve Bank this past week. Was Soros there to prop up the $AD ahead of the gold announcement? ( He is said to have bought $AD heavily. ) Is he somehow involved in the gold/bond swap? Is Soros THE or A buyer of the gold?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:54
aurophile running@mouth>(running@mouth):
Donald:
Your suggestion of a Japanese/Australian bonds for gold swap is quite plausible given the timing so soon after G-7 ( 8 ) and the Hashimoto remarks. I ( and others too including James Turk ) have thought they ( BOJ ) were trying to do a similar deal with the IMF which has publically committed to selling some gold to do good works.
After overnight reflection I am thinking that the timing may well have been a godsend. They released the info while markets were open in London and New York but before a long weekend to allow it all to react and then to rest.
Perhaps more interesting are the rumors regarding the Soros campaign against the Thai baht AND the Soros interviews with the Australian Reserve Bank this past week. Was Soros there to prop up the $AD ahead of the gold announcement? ( He is said to have bought $AD heavily. ) Is he somehow involved in the gold/bond swap? Is Soros THE or A buyer of the gold?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:51
ark saltednuts>(saltednuts):
RJ: I just read your post of 01:30. It is a jewel of high
value. I saved in to disk and will print it out for my
private use to re-read from time to time. Thank you.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:44
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Panda: Good post at 15;22. The fact that Austrailia was able to sell all that gold and no one knew certainly supports my view that no one that is posting here or in any other public forum knows whats going on. Apparently the gold was sold sometime ago and no one noticed. Then when it becomes public gold drops $7 so far and like a rock. Even the gold traders were taken by surprise according to Glenn. Given this level of knowledge how do we know about demand/supply/cost of production figures.
Seems simple enough to me We Don't. Hence the conspiracy notions to account for the unexplained. CBs, unnamed powerful forces, all are used to explain the unknown. Sort of like spirits of the woods. Herne the Hunter and Jack Frost.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:37
2BR02B? @defensive>(@defensive):
As tax freedom day, now somewhere in June inexorably edges
towards July, perhaps Independence Day will become something of a
double-entendre?

In the latest Wall Street Journal mutual fund quarterly roundup
reviewing the dismal performance of gold-oriented mutual funds,
Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of SoGen Gold Fund has put 25% of the
funds assets, maximum alloawable under the funds mandate, in two
defensive gold related securities: the Swiss Bank for Int'l Settlements
shares denominated in Swiss gold francs and Freeport-McMoran Copper &
Gold's preferred shares. A visit to FCX C&G homepage for an e-mail
inquiry will get the detailed initial offering information on the gold and silver-denominated preferred shares sent to one's home in about
three days.



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:34
DJ Stillwater lives!>(Stillwater lives!):
For panda and others following SWC.

I took advantage of the fact that we were spending the long week-end in Bozeman MT, and trekked down to visit Stillwater Mine, about 2-hours drive away in Nye MT. Imagine my surprise when I found it straddling one of the gateways to Custer National Forest, with the nearly 13,000 ft. snow-covered peaks of the Beartooth Wilderness Area behind it as a backdrop. The Stillwater River, swollen with the spring run-off flows right through the middle of the mine property. With the rugged cliffs surrounding the mine like an amphitheater, it is really an overwhelmingly beautiful location.

The mining property is clean and well maintained. Since all of the mining takes place underground, the impact of the mine on the environment is quite minimal.

As they were running with a skeletal administrative staff because of the long week-end, I didn’t manage to get a guided tour, but did spend a pleasant half hour with the dispatcher. However, the underground operation was in full swing. They employ 630 people overall, with roughly 80 people underground at any given time. They will soon be operating almost 24-hours per day, and most of the new facilities are coming on-line. The lighted sign at the entrance to the building displayed the price of platinum/palladium at $264 and the cost at $205.

I can’t say I learned a lot of value from an investment perspective, but if any of you are looking for a way to write off a vacation as a business trip, a visit to SWC certainly has potential. I would highly recommend you make this drive if you are even close to this area ( like Yellowstone ) . It is well worth it!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:34
aurophile awards@end>(awards@end):
There have been four posters ( perhaps more in recent months when I have been away ) over the past year who asked the right questions ( and often provided the right answers ) , or who simply sold gold short and held. Two were run off the site, but many of us remain in contact with them. The four, in my humble opinion, are Selby, Searle, Oldman, and NotaGoldbug. Forgive if there are others about whom I do not know. APH was probably the best swing trader. I could name fifty excellent and thoughtful posters, some new and some veterans here. And I want to thank Bart for his generosity in keeping this site alive and well.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:34
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PANDA: You are thinking the right way. Something is up. In a post yesterday I suggested that a direct deal was struck between Japan and Australia. Gold for US Treasuries. Australia gets some income and keeps an important and nearby raw material customer happy. Japan gets rid of their worrisome treasuries and a secure flow of absolutely crucial raw material. I'm still waiting for someone to post a better scenario.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
DAVID: No. We are two different posters...really! Just having some fun with USA on his birthday party. By the way, if you see USA tell him that that nice Mr. Hashimoto from the bank called while he was out partying. He just wanted him to know that his credit card limit was under review Said he would call back later. ( Oh yes...either gold or silver will be fine )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:22
panda @>(@):
LogicBank -- Profound post ( regarding baht and gold ) . Perhaps, dear Brutis, the answers lie in past news stories.

Glenn -- Thanks for your input, I shall heed your advice.

In the, For What It's Worth, department, I would suggest less concern with the spike down of recent days, and review the news of the last month or so regarding the Thai baht, Hashimoto's comments, and the reaction of the Dollar and treasuries to the initial baht shock. There is a lot going on here. Much more than we will ever know. Somebody is buying the gold, that is a fact. We may lose money betting on a rise in gold, but it seems that we are in a 'no man's land' in the middle of a battle field. There must be formidable forces at work here. Read LogicBank's post. People reacted correctly to a devaluation of their currency ( inflation ) and gold rose, then fell because of market conditions? Coincidence? The Australians announce they did a gold sale months ago and the markets react now? Somebody dumps a large lot of gold at the close on Thursday? All of this in a short time frame, but spaced far enough apart so that most won't make the connection, be it real or imagined. Check the time line out, it's interesting if nothing else. As I posted earlier about the timing of the price drop yesterday, I couldn't believe it. I looked at EBN spot at 1:00pm, then 1:15, and finally at 1:30pm EDT. This was done with great precision. This $3 rise overnight has been pretty much undone as we speak. No, something is going on here. Somebody is terribly afraid of something.

George S. Cole, Bill Buckler, many thanks for your inputs and ( Capt. Bill ) your Web site.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:04
aurophile logic@bank>(logic@bank):
LogicBank: As I read it the Thai baht declined 15% and gold only 4% +/-, so Thai holoders of gold are far ahead. Of course if they bought gold after the devaluation and before gold plunged they lost. Timing, or asset diversification, is all.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 15:00
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Junior; You're right that money ( paper ) is OK as long as it is accepted. The same is true for gold. Gold has a history of being accepted and as being a store of value. The store of value idea is dead at the moment
It has been a monumental loss of value over the last 17 - 18 years. With regard to currency try going to the local supermarket and buying $320 worth of food with an oz of it. Gold may be a store of value again and it may be a currency for us again but it is neither at the moment.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 14:51
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net):
Dear 'Donald ( @Home ) ', and 'USA ( @4th ) ',
Are you two, related? Maybe one-&-the-same ... psyche ?!
Regardless, your both ... hired.
However, must I pay you in 'specie' ? If so, would one of you prefer
gold, and the other, silver? ... Which one? ... Which you?



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 14:35
miro Just a few observatins >(Just a few observatins ):
I am not a frequent poster, nor do I claim to be to be an expert
on market be it a stocks or metals. I am a lurker on this site
because I want to have a better understanding of gold market as
I believe that the gold will play it’s role in coming years.

Without listing names let me just say that I appreciate the information
and opinions I can find here. As far as some extreme posts and childish
bickering between John and the rest of the Kitco gang - I just ignore
it as a noise. John, you would be much better accepted if you just grew
up a little - your posts, even if they have some substance here and
there, have a flavor of fifteen years old wanabe I see on many other
Internet forums. Your 3-2-5 call does not have any importance to me as
I don’t trade in short market and you are not able to provide any useful
information or analysis how things relate.

No, I don’t take any predictions about when will we reach the bottom
and when the stock will turn around and head south for granted. I use
the information to form my own opinion and to put my money where I think
it should be. It is my loss or my gain. I am looking for long trends
so it does not bother me so much if I miss additional 10% growth in Dow
or if I jump in too soon and take additional 10% slide in gold market.
I set up my target for the year and I already made my 15% in stocks even
after loosing 7% in gold stocks and I don’t try to guess the exact date
when the things will turn around ( and the will ) so I can make a few more
bucks.

As far as the sentiment new technology era is here to change our lives
including all economic laws I have to say sorry folks. This is
exactly the reason why I believe that gold will play it’s role again in
coming years and I am trying to move some money into it. I was
developing this new technology marvel for the last 25 years, know it’s
limitation, know how it can fail, and know that it will fail and loose
a lot of it’s glamour. With our increasing dependence on the technology
I don’t see a pretty picture. So don’t bet on silicon becoming new currency standard.

Back to lurking ..


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 14:35
JBR jbr 29@aol.com>(jbr 29@aol.com):
There has been abundant speculation at Kitco lately regarding the motivation of and the players involved in this relentless gold bear market.
I'd like to posit my theory with the following caveat: As an amateur commodities trader, I do not know what I am doing; as a gold mining stock investor I'm a sucker for a good story. I am a gold bull with blinders, but lately the blinders have started to slip loose.

Here is my theory [always open for comment and revision]:

Physical gold is the antithesis of this credit based world. As systemic cracks develop in this credit based system of Western design, the real fear for the proponents of the credit system is a rush to something tangible that will continue to be relied upon to preserve wealth through time. As such, gold represents a truth serum, the report card for our credit based system.

For some time, when the credit bubble was in its infancy, the Central Banks of Western governments employed gold sales of physical reserves to engineer the price of gold into target ranges. But the banks learned a dear lesson. The demand for gold could outstrip their resources in time. A better way had to be found. Enter the forward sale. If the price of gold could be brought low enough, then marginal mining concerns could be forced to yell Uncle' and promise on paper to sell what they've got in the ground to meet demand. Even healthier mining concerns, with lower production costs fell victim to this device in an attempt to garner more profits. Another tool developed, along with the forward sale, was the gold lease. Again, this device had the effect of blunting demand, although it does require parting with physical gold. The last important tool was the refinement of perception engineering, wherein announcements of upcoming or past gold sales or purchases by various CBs were timed so as to impact the market in the desired direction. For three years these tools were successful in managing the price of gold in a relatively narrow channel of between $370 and $400 an ounce.

The foray 18 months ago above the $400 an ounce level sounded the alarm for the CBs that manage the credit based system. To allow gold to fall back into its channel would not be sufficient because the increasing systemic risk might bring an avalanche of interest into gold. Therefore, I believe that the Western banking system has conspired in the following plot:

1. Encourage the commodity funds to drive down the price of gold. Guarantee that all rallies will be capped by unseen hands if necessary.
2. Employ the best perception engineers to forcast maximum gloom.
3. As the price of gold declines below imagined areas of support, the prices of mining stocks, particularly those from South Africa, decline in sympathy. The juniors are even harder hit.
4. Proxies for CBs begin a careful accumulation of stocks of selected majors, juniors, and curiously, independent assay/monitoring companies. The purchasers are careful. Too much buying may tip their hand. But falling bullion prices provide good cover.
5. As bullion continues its downward descent, CB gold mining stock accumulation continues.
6. With time, the CB cartel controls enough interest in selected majors, juniors and monitors to take them private. CBs may also take other mining concerns into receivership and eventually gain control of those companies. Note that the assets and sales of private companies are not reportable to the public.
7. With private mining concerns now under contro of the CB cartel, there are announcements in the years to come of major finds ( there's gold in them thar sands ) . The perception engineers move into high gear. The independent monitor/assay companies ( now owned by the CB cartel ) vouch for the finds.
8. Perceived new supplies of gold drive the metal down even further. Yet more interest in other mining companies is acquired by the CB cartel.
9. Ultimate weapon: One of the CB controlled mining companies announces a technique to extract gold from seawater at a cost of $50 an ounce. Of course, this is untrue, but not to worry. Those independent monitor/assay companies will vouch for anything.
10. The last holdout mining companies, their stock prices thrashed, capitulate. The CB cartel acquires controlling interest in all majors and juniors and take them private.

What's wrong with this thesis? Nothing, unless enough concerns get physical and demand physical gold. Steve Puetz, are you listening ?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 14:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
TO USA: We all know when we were born, but thank heavens, we don't know when we are going to die. So USA, if you want to celebrate many more birthdays, and I hope you do you had better stop driving by looking in your rear view mirror. Keep your eyes on the road ahead, fasten your seatbelt and for heavens sake...stop chug-a-lugging that that 6-pack when you are driving. You are completely out of control with your Visa card, your home equity loan and your failure to save for a rainy day. Ben Franklin? Boy would he be ashamed if he could see you now. Thomas Jefferson? Ditto!, Ditto!, Ditto! all the rest. You have squandered your inheritance from that entire family with your wasteful ways. Kids your age think they are immortal. Its time you settled down and made something of yourself. You come from good family, you can do it if you set your mind to it.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:55
junior money is money as long as you accept it>(money is money as long as you accept it):
Elli. The argument for gold is that as a currency ( method of payment ) it has been accepted throughout history. The reason you can make your statement is that you accept the faith of the governments and your neighbours who will take your dollar today. Other currencies that have folded in the past in pre-war Germany, Italy, many South American countries were also declared to be legal tender ( fiat money ) . Eventually other nations would not accept those currencies because they were losing too much value too quickly. If you were not able to buy a Japanese car or Chilean fruits and vegetables because they would not take your dollars, what method of payment would you choose? I don't wish to say that this is the case but that that is the argument. Is this far-fetched. I think we are still a long way from there. But when I hear that the Japanese may no longer buy treasuries, I worry and hope that the people will be able to buy back all those securities and not have to sacrifice there way of life. In today's global economy the interdependence that exists usually helps but it can destroy as well. More later maybe. Happy Fourth.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:46
Speed @home>(@home):
The whole 34,000 tons could be bought for cash at $325/oz for 322 billion dollars. The U.S. pays that much every year in debt service. Seems to me that some really smart people using margin, press manipulation etc. could achieve control of the physical market for a lot less.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:43
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
George S Cole: Actually George the only thing for sure about the CB's selling gold is that they think its a good idea to sell it. The question is WHY are they selling. Is it because of the conspiracy to wreck the gold market so they can flood the globe with paper or is it becase they see it as a good business deal? I don't think it matters too much to most of us and the implication remains the same --they think the price is going down. I agree with them about direction and have for many months. They are neither stupid nor crazy.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:40
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
NotaGoldbug @12:36: Your comments should be appended to RJ's post from last nite. As a fellow Oregonian and pursuer of the Spring Chinook, fishing the bottom can be productive but you lose many rigs that way. Also tries the patience as well. .... Crummy analogy but still germane.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:28
elli alphalogic>(alphalogic):
Pardon,a correction!
The sentence should read, the government has made the law that the
DOLLAR is legal tender...


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:27
USA @_4th>(@_4th):
I was born July 4, 1776, and the Declaration of Independence was my
birth certificate. The blood lines of the world run in my vens because I
offered freedom to the oppresssed. I am many things to many people. I am
the nation, with 265 million living souls - and the ghosts of millions who lived and died for me.
I am Nathan Hale and Paul Revere and Crispus Attaucks. I stood
at Levington and fired the shot heard around the world... I am Washington, Jefferson and Patrick Henry. I am John Paul Jones and Davy Crockett. My adopted sons include Lafayette and Casimer Pulaski. I remember the Alamo,
the Maine, and Pearl Harbor.
When freedom called, I answered and stayed until it was over,
over there. I left my heroic dead on Flanders Field, the rock of
Corregidor,
on the bleak slopes of Korea and the steaming jungles of Vietnam.
I am the Brooklyn Bridge, the wheatlands of Kansas and the granite
hills of Vermont. I am the coal fields of the Virginias and Pennsylvania,
the
oil fields of Texas, the Golden Gate and the Grand Canyon. I am
Independence Hall, the Monitor and the Merrimac.
I am big. I sprawl from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with my arms
reaching out to embrace Hawaii and Alaska. I am forest and field and
mountains and desert. I am quiet villages and cities that never sleep. You
can
look at me and see Benjamin Franklin on the streets of Philadelphia with a
loaf of bread under his arm, and you can see Betsy Ross with her needle.
You can see the lights of Christmas and hear the strains of Auld Lang
Syne
as the calender turns.
I am Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Jack Dempsey and Muhammad
Ali. I am more than 250 churches, where my people worship as they think
best. I am a ballot dropped into a box, the roar of the crowd at the Super
Bowl or World Series. I am an editorial and a letter to your congressman.
Yes, I am the nation and these are the things I am. I was conceived
in liberty and, God willing, in freedom I will spend the rest of my days to
remain a citadel of freedom and beacon of hope. This is my wish on July
4th, 1997, 221 years after I was born.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:23
elli alphalogic>(alphalogic):
The fascination with Gold in all it's aspect is something hard to grasp
by anyone not involved with the subject. Why should the average person
be concerned what the gold price is?
The Dollar ( paper money ) is legal tender and is and must be accepted
in settlement of any debt and in any trade transaction. That is the law!
If one want to pay for anything or settle debts by offereing X many
ounces of gold it may not be accepted, It has to be converted into
actual paper money first. The government has made the law that gold
is legal tender. Gold is not as important as it used to be before.
Unless someone wants to operate outside the law, then that is a different
question.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:21
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Donald:

They Rydex Ursa is the inverse of the S&P 500.. Must be painful if your averaged
in at $7.00 and now 5.79.. I believe the S&P could go to 1150.. Now its 890 a
30% increase.. That would put your Rydes at approx. 4.00... How much money
do you have and when do you stop averaging in? The Nova fund seems the
better play here.. Differences of opinion!!!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
George S. Cole @10:26: Much has been said about the 'gold/bond' carry. After viewing gold vs the Dow, did it ocurr to you that perhaps some of the gold carry has been diverted to general equities rather than bonds?

I don't recall, that anyone here has publicly commented on the possibility. It would seem to me that the attraction of shorting gold and buying the general equities market would be too delicious to resist. For only the past 3 months alone, +25% in the SP500 coupled with another 10% gain in a gold short position, would make for a nice piece of change.

Of course, if that is substantially the case, it would carry interesting implications for a sharp market break. It would make your view of a general market decline all the more significant.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:04
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*):
Some Thai citizens rushed to buy gold this week as their government devalued the baht. Unfortunately, their gold fell more than the baht! Thailand is probably the first of several in that region who will soon float their currencies -- and the lesson the citizens of these countries have learned from Thailand is NOT to buy gold. The YEN will be their solution...

Related story: Thai savers caught in falling gold, baht dilemma ( Reuter )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/04/y0023_z00_30.html

Teaser: Australia sold 167 tonnes, official sector holdings are more than 34,000 tonnes. My math suggests that one will soon need to pay a disposal fee to rid one's self of their gold.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 13:00
George Cole musings>(musings):
Donald: I'm not sure there is anything magic about the 29 multiple. But there is little doubt that gold will be lower than 325 my Dow 8500 objective is reached. My $315 gold target under these circumstances was a guesstimate, but I think a realistic one.

Selby and Este: Richard Pomboy ran ad add a few weeks ago accusing the CBs ( well some CBs anyway ) of doing all they can to wreck the gold market. Obviously we have no smoking gun here. But the willingness of some CBs to lend huge amounts of gold at dirt cheap rates for forward sales and short sales tells us something about who is writing the script. Not to mention periodic sales and rumors of additional sales in the wings.

Earlier today someone here said that an informed source had said that Alan Greenspan would rather die than see gold break $400 on his watch. That sums it up nicely. Higher gold prices are seen as a direct challenge to the paper bull and U.S. financial dominance. And the more the paeper bull inflates, the lower gold must go to help keep it airborne.

i strongly supect that counterveiling forces ( BT, some Asian CBs, George Soros, ? ) are building up their reserves for a decisive counterattack. But when and at what price level? That is the 64 billion dollar question.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:57
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED: The Hunt brothers tried it with silver and failed miserably. No, I don't know the math.

NOTAGOLDBUG: I have been using the Rydex Ursa since September. Added several times to my position, as I had planned to, as I know that only luck will get you the top. During mid April I was looking good but...you know the rest. My average price is around $7.00. How do you decide to change from doing nothing to doing something? No one can ever be certain, that is what we are all groping for now. I am glad I am not one of the millions of fools who are piling into stocks knowing only the call letters the way the lady on that Frontline show on PBS is doing. Do you realize that the impending disaster can be so great that the country comes completely unglued ala Germany in 1923-1933. Instead of Greenspan trying to talk it down he should have changed margin requirements ages ago. Now the Clinton administration AND the Republicans need the mania for the tax revenue, they have cranked it into their revenue projections through the year 2005. That is a disgraceful fact. I repeat, ad nauseum, it can only end badly for democracy.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:36
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Donald: You have made some excellent comments in the past... But your
suggestion to short the Dow ( which by the way is not something you can
do ) and go long gold is a, short term, ticket to disaster... Gold is going
lower and the Dow is going higher. The individuals who are shorting the
averages like the S&P are getting slaughtered.. Manias, like the recent
move of the S&P ( and the next move ) are very hard to short. The pain will
be so great you will cover and the result will be continued highs.. Also,
in great moves of pessimism, like the move in gold, to find the bottom is
equally hard.. The lows seem to just go lower.

I'm not a intellectual like so many on this site but I do recognize when to stand
aside.. A fun read by a professional at this is The Education of a Speculator
by Niederhoffer..

One of his quotes:
A master knows when to do nothing..



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:27
Donald @Home>(@Home):
GSC: More on Dow and Gold. Using your projected top of 8500, and assuming something magic about the 29 ounce number; we get a cycle high of 8500 for the Dow at a time when gold hits a cycle low of 293. Do you thing that the today price of each is within striking distance to achieve that at the same time?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:26
Speed @home>(@home):
Donald: I agree with your last to GSC. Let's hope that common sense prevails. What are the odds that George Soros or others of his caliber are moving the gold market now? To what end? I talked to a rep from one of the big coin retailers and he is convinced that a few big players are trying to corner the market. I don't understand the futures and options markets very well. How much money would it take to own enough gold either physical or paper, to control the market? Has anybody done the math?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:22
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):

D'Arcy: My understanding is that the stocks included in the HUI Index are not hedged. They are: AEM, ASA, BMG, CDE, ECO, FCX, GLG, HL, HM, KGC, NEM, WMC. Two stocks that took a big hit today are ECO and TVX. I do not know how much TVX is hedged.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 12:03
Donald @Home>(@Home):
George S. Cole: Dow & Gold. We need to examine the relationship more closely. The all time high was 1966 at Dow 1000, Gold 35, roughly 29 ounces to buy one share of each of the 30 Dow stocks. The problem with that figure is that gold was artificially fixed by the US Govt. Who knows what the true price would have been. In 1932 we could buy the Dow for a half ounce. That was an absolute bottom. There was a short time in January, 1980, that the Dow was 1 ounce. It didn't last long but it was a free market event. Today we have a free market event at 24.67 ounces for the Dow. That may not be a top but I have convinced myself that it is close enough to act agressively. Short the Dow and buy gold long still seems like a good strategy that will pay off in the next few years. The psychology is real tough to handle, no question, but it just seems right. America and much of the rest of the world have NO NET WORTH. They have mortgaged EVERYTHING. Everything is on the table and it has to end badly for them. That is just common sense. Doesn't common sense still count in the long run?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:55
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Este: I not looking for written proof just some names. People who believe that unknown unnamed all powerful forces are affecting the events of the world often come around on their own tow line trying to search out strawberry thieves.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:38
Este to Selby>(to Selby):
Do you expect the written proof of the manipulation of the gold market to be produced anytime soon? Just look at the evidence around and you will be hard pressed to deny what is going on.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:32
Dana To George Cole - factoids>(To George Cole - factoids):
Barrick is hedged for 2 years @ US$420. The average world cost of production is US$317. One third of world production is uneconomic at current prices. We must be close to the point of maximum pessimism!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:25
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Este: You saidthe most important contribution of this Forum to the
understanding of the gold market has been the exposure of these powerful forces who are determined to push the price of gold to levels that only few thought possible a year ago. Who got exposed? I keep hearing the idea but who are we talking about. To say central bankers or powerful interests exposes nothing and no one. Are talking France or China or Singapore or the Hunt cousins --Who?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:19
Este to George Cole>(to George Cole):
You just said: I must go along with Captain Bill on this. Powerful forces have been and are pushing the price lower. What their ultimate price objectives may be, what if any countervailing forces may come into play, and the reasons for their relentless attack are matters of conjecture. But not the fact of the attack.

I think that the most important contribution of this Forum to the understanding of the gold market has been the exposure of these powerful forces who are determined to push the price of gold to levels that only few thought possible a year ago.
Who is buying the gold that CBs are selling? Why not the producers? They turn the yellow stuff into trinkets and don't seem to care to buy in a declining market.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:17
Plaintalker Happy 4th>(Happy 4th):
Mooney 0015: He is infected by a deadly disease---Foot and mouth disease.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:17
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
George S Cole: My view is that the CB's are as much a part of the market and the miners. It can be seen that there is a major conspiracy at work or it can be seen that a bunch of banks using the same info see the same thing--gold is going down. Either way it won't go much below the cost of production but can go there with no more trouble than it experienced getting to 325. I agree once it gets near the cost of production high cost mines will shut down. TVX has already closed a Quebec mine. At this point in the process I expect to hear that news about Sept - Oct. The most valuable info then will be which mine ( s ) are closed but are doing sufficient maintainence to ensure a fast return to production when the price starts to rise. There will be few better investments than these mines ( which ever they may be at the time ) .


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:07
MoreGold @DOW/GOLD>(@DOW/GOLD):
GSC: Interesting correlation between the Dow and Gold. It's also interesting that most stock analysts are bullish on stocks and bearish on Gold. They have a vested interest in promoting the flow of capital into securities.
They will try to keep a good thing going AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.
I agree that it seems likely the inverse movements of the Dow and Gold will continue.
If Gold holds at this level or lower, mine closures are inevitable.
Gold stock earnings will be hit hard also - and hence prices.
S.A. layoffs and social problems may ensue.
This could be the start of a good shakeout in the Gold market. First the BULLS, and later the BEARS.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 11:01
George s. Cole hedging>(hedging):
DARCY: I do not know which Canadian producers are least hedged, but believe that ABX is the most hedged. One way to find the least hedged producers is to see which stocks go down the most today.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:55
George Cole manipulation>(manipulation):
SELBY: I do recall that you were talking about $250 some time ago. But this talk about nobody wanting the yellow?. Doesn't demand exceed new production in the physical market with the deficit being made up by CB sales and gold loans?

I must go along with Captain Bill on this. Powerful forces have been and are pushing the price lower. What their ultimate price objectives may be, what if any countervailing forces may come into play, and the reasons for their relentless attack are matters of conjecture. But not the fact of the attack


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:52
darcy darcy@total.net>(darcy@total.net):
Mooney: am I to assume that your most recent post was directed at me?
this is only my third post ever, so I don't quite understand. George Cole: do YOU know which of the Canadian gold stocks is least hedged?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:50
Este to Glenn>(to Glenn):
Thx for your reply. Your comments are always very valuable. Have a nice weekend.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:50
Bob @..Canadian Govt Gold Stocks and an appeal for more analysis>(@..Canadian Govt Gold Stocks and an appeal for more analysis):
GSC: Further to my post about CDN gold sales and Auzzie gold dumps...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/04/y0023_z00_27.html
The Canadian govt had used a gradual sale approach and now holds about $1 Billion worth ( 3.1 m.ozs. ) . The Auzzies hold about 80 tonnes ( I unerstand from recent reports ) or about ( 80*2400*16 ) the same as the Canadian govt - about 3.1 m.ozs. or about $1 Billion worth.

In the past Kitcoites were keen on physical counts. It would be appreciated if someone posts a guesstimate of current CB gold holdings and the LME / NY gold stocks and flows.

We may derive better unerstanding of the determinants of gold price from the players positions and physical flows. I think we all gained by RJ's ideas on gold market psychology and yesterdays informed post on lease rates and physical movements that focused on the dynamics between speculators and investors and impending market results.

A continuation of this learned series of posts would enhance the benefits of the Kitco thread and provide valuable informed opinions during this difficult Gold Bear market for those of us who have vested interests...
... beyond right-brian machinations of keyboard machismos caught-up in a fit of youthful exerburance.

Cheers

Cheers.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:43
George Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks):
Gold stocks under heavy pressure in Canada today. PDG off about 7%, ABX down almost 5%.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:42
Mooney @Aurophile>(@Aurophile):
At least there has been some improvement. He now uses his e-mail address and only one handle ( I think ) . Perhaps we are helping in his eventual recovery. Eventually all the sane, heartfelt advice must have some beneficial effect.
AAR - What is your long-term chart prognosis for gold?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:41
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
George S Cole: I don't know about Ted Arnold but I did use $250 as my price for gold when it was about 380 - 370 last fall. My rational was that it is slightly below the average cost of production of about 275. I recall you saying the same thing then as you just have: coiuld happen but you doubted it. Once the search function operates we can see the correct details rather than relying on memory.
I wonder why you see a desire to push the price down. I see no one interested in buying and the price therefore falling.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:35
Mooney @Louis 16th.Once.More.With.Feeling!>(@Louis 16th.Once.More.With.Feeling!):
'The time has come ( 'my friends' )
To talk of many things:
Of shoes - and ships - and sealing-wax
Of cabbages - and kings -
And why the sea is boiling hot -
And whether pigs have wings.'

Perhaps you will permit me, Franklin said, to relate a little story.
A man was sitting on the Pont-Neuf a short time ago offering gold
coins for sale, Louis d'Or both old and new, for which he asked two
livres a piece, in other words a tenth of their value. Many of the
passers-by stopped to listen, they examined the coins, which had the
authentic ring, yet the man did not succeed in selling a solitary one of his Louis d'Or. Not a single purchaser could be found who was willing a risk a couple of livres in order to acquire a whole Louis.
Well, asked Ralph Izard in a depreciating tone, what about it?
The Louis d'Or were genuine, replied Franklin. It was all part of
a bet. The man won his wager, for he had asserted that people are so
suspicious by nature that they will not even accept real gold if it is offered them cheaply.

If the long term chart is to have any meaning at all then we are now in the process of forming a major double bottom. The severity of the spike aside $325 should form a base in the near term and then upwards from here on. If $325 does not form a base in the next 2-10 days then the lows are anybody's guess. ( And I do mean Guess! )



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:30
WDL @>(@):
E...EA...EAR...EARN...EARNI...EARNIN...EARNING...EARNINGS! Voila


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:26
George S. Cole musings>(musings):
WW: I think Ted Arnold was talking about gold going to $250 within 2 years, not in the near future. I believe he also said that gold mine closures sufficient to remove 300 tons of production annually might change his bearish stance.

Could gold be driven to $250? Certainly! Will it. Not likely. I can't believe the would be stupid enough to drive gold down to a level that would shut down most global production. That would virtually guarantee a huge rebound to thousands of dollars an ounce within the next few years. But if driving the stock market to Dow 10,000 plus in the near future is their key objective, then they may indeed want to push gold down to $250.

Interesting to superimpose charts of gold and Dow Jones. Almost mirror images of each other. SOMEBODY obviously feels that higher stock prices REQUIRES lower gold quotations. My August Dow target of 8500 implies a gold price of around $315 by that time. Dow 10,000 would almost certainly be accompanied by sub-$300 gold. But Dow 6000 probably would see the yellow stuff pushing $400 again as the shorts are massacred.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:25
darcy darcy@total.net>(darcy@total.net):
Can someone here tell me which of these three producers -- TVX,PDG,ABX --
is LEAST hedged, and has the most to gain from a turnaround in the gold price? It'd be much appreciated. Thanks


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:10
Issac Brock Queenston Heights>(Queenston Heights):
Lan Man: Your ethnocentrtic view has you making incorrect statements. The English and Canadfaian never had the right to bear arms. Goes way back to when the King own everything and was the only one allowed to raise an army--100's of years. As for the confiscation of gold it only happened in the US not in England or Canada.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 10:08
Lan Man Only Paper Longs are Capitulating>(Only Paper Longs are Capitulating):
NotaGoldbug ( Oregon.com ) : your comment July 3, 17:53 - Many of the holders of bullion I consider weak longs in this market.. They are scared to death that gold will go lower and want their money out. Now!

The weak longs have already capitulated. Just go talk to a pm dealer and ask how the business is doing. Last week I was at CNI and they told me that the May/June period was the strongest 2 months since 1989. Granted, they said they had booming sales year ago January, but those buyers were not the collector or value investors that are now buying.

Try again...


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:49
auro x>(x):
and till=still....: )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:49
Lan Man To Donald @Possible Coin Portraits>(To Donald @Possible Coin Portraits):
Just so long as they do NOT have any DEAD Presidents on it... or for that matter, ANY lawyers...

As to the confiscation debate, I could see it happening in Australia, Canada or England, after all, they already took away your right to bear arms... But not here in the U.S - 200 million guns say it won't happen.



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:49
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Mooney: I see little has changed here. The idiot refuses to take his medicine, D.A. is till humoring and protecting him, and gold is down.:- )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:48
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Mooney: I see little has changed here. The idiot refuses to take his medicine, D.A. is till humoring and protecting him, and gold is down.:- )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:45
Mooney @Happy.Birthday.America>(@Happy.Birthday.America):
RJ - Sorry, my first post seems to have been lost in cyberspace. I merely said that I think that this fireworks thing has gotten the better of you and that you should perhaps RELAX for a few days, enjoy your holidays and catch a jazz in the park concert. Also that your Nixon mask, if you bury it in the backyard and leave it there, should provide quite a puzzle to a far distant future generation of archeologists!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:17
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Este ( July 3 18:19 ) Re: Silver and more comments - Yes. Silver does look like it's going down. I went short thursday and took my shorts home over the weekend. Silver is down $0.01 in london right now. As far as more comments I have two statements to make. 1 ) My time frame is much different than yours and I do not have access to a computer/internet connection on the floor. 2 ) I DID tell the group I went short at 350 and I did state the day I covered at $339. ( What a mistake that was ) Oh well. I'ver been mostly day trading since then. have not made any more posts since, but if I go long I may do so that night, maybe? 3 ) I've come to find that there are many many more traders reading this group that do not make ANY post EVER and resent that all my hard work goes to them for free. I've meat a couple people on the floor who read this group, but obviously you do not hear from them.

Anyway I'll still make comments here but not everday. - The free fall in gold scared even me. I sold gold about a half hour before the close and then went to the silver pit to trade there. When silver closed I went back to gold and covered my shorts near the close. It was more of a Gift than anything else. I never expect gold down $7 in one day. The trading was so hectic with $0.50 moves between trades. Ealy last night as I was thinking about the day it reminded me of the friday before Black Monday in oct 87. Prices just dropped in a free fall yet at the close we were technically oversold. I'm not going to predict that we open down $3 on monday only to close down $12 but there is atleast a 15% chance of it. I mean we opened up higher on thursday and that was the high of the day. So if we open up higher on monday people will just sell. If we open lower longs will get scared and sell with Stop Losses being hit. There is talk of 313 so if that is where we are headed for the shorts to cover and the longs to enter than we May get there rather quickly. Again I think that there is only a 15% chance of this. I'm happy to be flat in gold and simply enjoy the weekend without worry. I'm happy I was not long at any point his week. There were traders who had gone long for a day trade. You could tell. some people lost alot and I feel for them. Tempers were real HOT on the floor around the close. O


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:16
WW @Ted Arnold>(@Ted Arnold):
When Ted Arnold speaks of 250 gold is that his estimate or is he speaking from knowledge. 250 probably is a limit given what it might do to production. The late day selling everyday definitely smells of agenda selling. They have been successful who can say it will not continue until 250. Who and what can stop this powerful force which intends to obviously create panic in this mkt. GSC WHY WILL THEY FAIL if they want to drive the price of gold to 250.?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:16
Bob @...focus>(@...focus):
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970704/business/stories/stocks_52.html


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:09
Tw @HOME>(@HOME):
Re: RYO I have talked with the co, they are short many calls from high prices and have sold all of 1997 production ( earlier ) at $395,. I asked the investor relations person about shutdowns and he said that could occur with one or two mines if the price stayed in the 260-330 rang for two years. They are along way from any shutdowns now, especially because of their obviously successful forward hedging. 395 is not a bad price for this year isit


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:03
Mooney @RJ.Again>(@RJ.Again):
RJ - First I tell you to take a few days off, and then right away I come back and ask you to work. Its not far - is it? AAR - I agree with the wisdom of your 1:30 last night wherein you said, ...The most important advise I can give anyone is to never buck the
trend. The trend is your friend. If a market in trending down, don’t
buy. Look to place shorts with tight stops until the market turns,
then buy the breakout. No one can pick a bottom or a top. Those
that think they can may get lucky occasionally but they will always
loose in the long run. This is sound advice that most of us have heard countless times before and yet scant moments later you fly in the face of this wisdom by trying to pick the temporary bottom in Silver with the comment that ...Buy at 4.50, if it dips to 4.40 buy some more. Layer out the same way on the way up. I'm not saying that Silver at these levels would not be a great buy, only that you seem to going against the gist of your comments at 1:30.

BTW - Goldbug23 - WHY would you ever refuse to post the colour of molten gold on this channel when practically every other topic under the sun is discussed here? AAR Goldbug23, RJ, and ALL, molten gold is GREEN. I know Bart would have answered eventually But I think he's getting a little well deserved R+R this weekend.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 09:01
Jerry Stratton jerry@hoboes.com>(jerry@hoboes.com):
Steve Puetz and KidSilver - My essay on CyberCash. For what it is worth. IMO people will not have a choice between CyberCash and 'REAL MONEY'.

Cybercash

Cyber Cash is not one of Johnny's many cousins. Cybercash is a move from paper money to electronic bits, completing the shift from the gold standard to a symbolic paper standard to, as Alvin Toffler coined it in PowerShift, the super symbolic standard where money is merely a representation in computer memory of a government's standing in the world economy.

Rather than carry coins and bills, we'll carry cards--like credit cards or bank cards--and we'll use these cards to pay for everything and anything. Many proponents claim that it will end crime: there won't be any cash to steal, and hot items will still have to be fenced, at which point cybercash comes into play and computers can trace the transaction.

As a panacea, cybercash is shortsighted. Even on the surface, it won't stop rape and other forms of violence. It can only affect crimes in which cash is involved and is irreplaceable. But there is no such thing. What is cash? Is cash a changing word? For cybercash to work on a universal scale, it must be easily used. Any individual needs to be able to accept cybercash from another individual as easily as transferring dollar bills from one wallet to another. If merchants and individuals can accept cybercash, criminals can force merchants ( and individuals ) to give up cybercash.

The biggest burglar--and the strongest proponent of cybercash--is the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS foresees a day when you never file a tax return. They'll just collect all the data about what you earned and automatically deduct from your cybercash cache what they think you owe. Sales taxes will also be transformed: state and local governments do not tax money that they don't see. When you buy a stereo from your brother-in-law, or pick up some junk at any of the numerous yard sales on a given weekend, you don't pay any taxes. It's not because they don't want to tax these sales, it's that they can't. Some states even expect you to voluntarily tell them what you bought and how much you paid for it.

In a central system of electronic cash, you have no choice. Whenever money traverses the cash net, Uncle Sam or his nieces and nephews in the states will automatically take their cut. The United Nations also sees an opportunity: the bureaucrats there hope to be able to impose a tax on international electronic currency transactions.

Some forms of cybercash are already here. Banks and financial institutions deal directly with digital transactions. No paper money gets transported anymore. I rarely use cash. I have a credit card and an ATM card that looks like a credit card, and I can use them just about anywhere. My paycheck is deposited automatically into my checking account.

Credit cards are credit. The money in them doesn't really exist, at least for me. Bank cards are different. They're really cash--they represent the cash that I've got in my banking account. These forms of electronic cash have major drawbacks, however. They're easily traced and easily faked, and they have my entire balance. If someone steals my ATM card ( and somehow gains my PIN number, say, by watching over my shoulder when I make a transaction, using binoculars or mirrors, or by pointing a knife at my throat and just asking me ) , they've got my checking account. Now, most state laws limit the amount that you can lose from stealing, so that I might only lose $50 if a thief spends the $1,000 in my checking account. But that just means that the bank loses it instead. The bank would probably prefer that I lose it, just as if the thief had stolen $1,000 from my wallet.

If the thief just gets your number, and not your signature, you aren't liable for anything: any credit card transactions that occur without a signature, and that turn out to be fraudulent, you are not liable for. This includes on-line transactions. This is one of the reasons credit card companies and businesses are pushing for encryption. It isn't there to protect the consumer, it's to protect the credit card company.

There are other problems with these cards. If I found out that my bank had hired a private detective to watch my every move, I would be furious. But they don't have to: I tell them my every move every time I use the card. And given the security of most computer systems, I've also told anyone who really wants to know. There is no privacy with credit cards and bank cards. Why do you think they're giving the card to me for free? They expect to make money off of the information I'm giving them.

In essence, there are four ways that electronic cash could be implemented. The electronic cash can be centralized or distributed, and it can be private or public. My credit cards and bank cards are centralized and public. The 'real' cash is all held at the bank, and the transactions I make with the cards are not private: the bank knows about them, and anybody who can access the bank knows about them, including the IRS.

When we move into 'true' virtual cash--electronic cash that doesn't represent a piece of non-existent paper--it looks as though it will be distributed. In most of the cases where virtual cash is implemented now, the card itself holds the money. The telephone companies sell phone cards, which are good for a specific amount of money. If the cards are stolen, you only lose the amount of money 'left' on the card. Likewise, you can give the cards to someone--a son or daughter at college, for example--and be assured that they'll only spend what exists on the card. Some of the companies that sell these phone cards commission art and photographs for them. When empty, these cards have actually become collector's items!

Vending cards, cards with a specific amount of money to be used in the company's vending machines, are also distributed electronic cash. The card itself is the money. When emptied, the card is worthless, although they can be 'rejuvenated' for a fee. Vending cards and phone cards are semi-private. The person who originally purchased the card is known, but there isn't any way of telling who actually used the card if the card is passed from person to person, except with standard gumshoe detective work. The information isn't automatic.

In other forms of distributed cash, the information is automatic. With most forms of 'smart' cards, you are the only person who is authorized to use the card. If you want to give someone else some money, you 'download' cash from your card to their card, and this information may or may not be tracked. This type of card is available as a Visa card from NationsBank, Wachovia, and First Union, and they expect it to be readily accepted at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta.

David Chaum, founder of the Dutch company DigiCash b.v., has been an advocate of virtual money for over a decade. He's also an idealist; his biggest contribution to the debate has been the question, How can we do this and still maintain individual privacy? As a result of answering that question, he holds the important patents for what's called anonymous cash and many forms of virtual cash transactions. He's developed techniques, as an outgrowth of public key cryptography, that allow banks to authorize digital cash transactions without knowing who is taking part in the transaction, and has mathematically proven that those transactions are reliable and secure.

He stands to become very rich when virtual cash is implemented world-wide, but he's been holding out selling his patents until a deal comes along that protects the individual liberties that he feels are important. DigiCash made its name creating a 'toll card' for motor vehicles. The smart card slips into a device on the vehicle's windshield. As cars pass the toll booth, a scanner automatically checks the card and debits the toll. The system is also anonymous: the Dutch government isn't able to use it to keep track of where its citizens travel.

That's the kind of thing that's important to David Chaum. As part of an interview with Steven Levy of Wired magazine, he pointed out a place where Nazis rounded up Jews to be sent to concentration camps, as an example of what happens when you give government too much power. In places like Thailand, for example, smart cards are used to keep track of everything from an individual's ancestry to their voting records.

There's no reason that we'll have only one form of electronic cash. Right now, there are all sorts of it: vending cards, credit cards, bank cards, phone cards. There's no reason that private industry can't continue to market multiple means of using virtual cash. So we'll be able to continue using public, centralized cash when we need credit ( credit cards ) . We'll also use it, in the form of bank cards or automatic deductions, when we want the cash flow to be traceable, for example, when paying a telephone bill. When buying lunch, or buying a newspaper at the newsstand, we'll use a private, distributed 'smart' card.

Two things have to be sorted out before we move to a completely digital economy: who is going to back the digital cash, and who is going to pay for it? Backing is a very touchy subject. Even paper money isn't backed by anything tangible anymore. It's backed by the good name of the government that prints it. It may end up that governments will back digital cash just like they back paper cash. Digital cash can also, however, be backed by the private company that makes the card. The latter is not unlikely; it's what happens now, although we expect that the phone card or vending card is backed by the company because the company 'still has' the cash that we gave them in exchange for the card. That's an element of trust, however, and if the company you bought your phone card from goes out of business you may well be out of luck.

Digital cash may evolve out of this. As less and less paper exchanges hands, you'll be buying that phone card with money from a smart card that you bought from a bank, who got their money in digital form from the federal government, and you'll have paid for it with money that was deposited directly into your account by your employer.

How will digital cash be paid for? Someone has to pay for the smart card, and someone also has to pay for the computer networks that transmit the bits and bytes of digital cash. It will probably be a combination of the ways that electronic cash is paid for today. When you buy a money order, you pay a fee to get the money order. There may be a fee for getting your smart card refilled. With your credit card, you may or may not ( really, you shouldn't, anymore ) be paying an annual fee. Merchants also pay, for the privilege of being able to accept your credit card. Companies that make smart cards may charge a 'royalty' to merchants, depending on how often their card is used, and how much it's used for. Digital cash might even be paid for in the way that checking is paid for: while your money is sitting in the bank, it's making money, as interest, for the bank. Your digital cash, until it gets used for a purchase, is also just sitting somewhere. The smart card transactors can gain interest on this idle money.

Selling Yourself

Cybercash can also be paid for by selling information. Every time you use cybercash, some kind of information is also trading hands. For the more private forms of cybercash, it may not be much more, if any more, than what changes hands with paper cash purchases. But with bank cards, credit cards, and check cards, you are giving away, for free, information worth a lot of money. Merchants, distributors, manufacturers, and banks are fighting over this information today. They all want a piece of it. Hell, they each want all of it. And it ain't even their information. It's yours. This is information about your spending habits, your payment habits, and your interests that they're selling. You're giving it away for free, especially if you're paying a fee for your credit card on top of it all.

In Florida and California, retail chains have fought blistering legal battles with banks over this issue. The central question their lawyers are asking one another is: Who owns the customer data?

The legal answers are not yet in. But one thing is certain: No one is asking the customer.

When it finally happens, there isn't going to be any choice. You'll have to take part, and you'll have to pay whatever the fee is, whether cash or information. As Pascal Zachary said about Bill Gates getting into the Cybercash industry, He gets rich, 'cause you exist, like bankers today. You have to have their service to survive in the modern world.

There's so much information passing between you and the computers on the other side that some of it still gets lost. There's really so much information that the stores and banks, like the system administrators on computer networks, just don't know what to do with it all. I'd hazard that most of the information you 'give' is routinely ignored. Things like time of day, which checkout lane you're in, who your cashier is, the total weight of your purchases, how your purchases compare to those of the person in front of you and behind you... stuff that seems so inanely trivial, who would want it? Given time, someone will want all of that and more. Some of it you desperately want to get lost. Many bank cards require passwords--usually called 'PIN' numbers--in order to 'use' your ATM card, whether at a merchant or a magic wall. When you give an incorrect password, you're handing out very valuable information: you're telling a complete stranger what you think your password is.

I've got quite a few passwords: a bank card, two credit cards, at least four computer accounts, and a voice mail account, just offhand. Since I see the dangers in having the same password for each purpose, I use a different password for each. But that gets hard to juggle as well: just this morning I tried to get my voice mail using my bank card password. It's not the first time I've used the right password in the wrong place, and it probably won't be the last. I doubt very much that AT&T, in this case, kept track of my incorrect password, and I don't know what they'd do with it if they did. I don't see AT&T sneaking around in the middle of the night emptying out the checking account of a hack writer.

Today.

But who knows what AT&T is going to be doing tomorrow? They still won't be stealing from my checking account, but that doesn't mean they won't want the information. Do I commonly use the wrong password? The same wrong password? Why do I keep doing that? Is it for another voice mail account that I use more often than AT&T's? That's something they'd like to know.

And if I do the same thing at an ATM machine? Sure, I don't expect Mission Federal Credit Union to keep track of my 'invalid passwords'. But Mission Federal has nothing to do with the ATM machine. Just because I trust my bank, doesn't mean I should trust some odd-named machine in the middle of Horton Plaza. The bank doesn't own this ATM. They probably don't even know who does.

Even our mistakes are valuable in the information age. Everything is information, and everything we do tells someone else something about ourself. Everything that can be recorded can be sold. If there are no fees, no interest, and no merchant charges, there is still a lot of money to be made by cybercash providers.

How it will actually happen is anyone's guess. Cybercash may be private or public, centralized or distributed ( although probably distributed, because it limits the liability of financial institutions ) , but we will get digital money. Paper money is already outdated and it is getting worse every day. As Alvin Toffler says in the highly recommended PowerShift, Except for economically backward countries and quite secondary uses, paper money will go the way of the coral shell and copper bracelet currency.

Paper money has to go simply because current technology--high resolution computers and printers--can forge normal paper money too easily, and tomorrow's technology is only going to get better. It has to go because it is simply to slow to transact using paper cash in a world of computer networks. The important question from the customer's and individual's standpoint is whether digital cash will improve our privacy, degrade it, or remove it.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 07:52
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Japanese bank problem.

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/SPECIAL/page/nomura18.html#gen77


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 07:02
Donald @Home>(@Home):
RJ: Don't wait until tonight...start now!. I have it from reliable sources that the shorts have the same idea, they want to add the solid gold bust of Nixon to the Mt. Rushmore collection.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 06:59
George S. Cole long-term bull>(long-term bull):
RJ: Thanks for the posts discussing your market methodology! Much wisdom therein. I have a question though. What would it take to turn you long-term bullish on gold? Unlike some, you seem to believe that a new gold bull will come, albeit from lower levels. And why are you so confident the next rally will fail?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 06:51
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Stradmaster Right On!!!Happy Birthday America


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 06:40
RJ Tokyo>(Tokyo):
Tokyo--July 4--Spot gold prices fell below support of US $323.00 per ounce in late Asian trading on active selling by European dealers, market participants said. Long liquidation continued in Asia following a sharp price fall in the US after the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement of gold sales late Thursday. The central bank said it had sold part of its gold reserves to reduce its holdings to 80 tonnes from the previous 247 tonnes. * * * However, light short-covering and physical buying demand helped stabilize spot gold prices in Asia, the dealers said. Some Japanese traders were buying spot gold for arbitrage with positions on the Tokyo commodity Exchange, where futures prices also plunged to close limit-down across the board, the dealers said. The dealers said spot gold's support is now seen at $318.00, with resistance seen at $328.00.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 06:26
RJ Molten Gold>(Molten Gold):
Mooney - OK! I’m on my third maple leaf, got the propane but its flame was no match for the Canadian Mint. There is a high performance fuel station down the road, I’ll use bolt cutters, to make quick work of their security. I know they have acetylene there, if I mixed it with 123 octane racing fuel, Yes.. That’s the heat I need I will melt these coins into a ceramic cast of Richard Nixon’s face I made years ago from a Halloween mask. I’m still not sure I will have enough heat….. hmmmmmmm….. I got it! I will superheat the acetylene in the microwave for 30 - 40 minutes and then add the high octane, In a half an hour I’ll have these suckers MOLTEN! I will poor this ? color molten metal into the ceramic casting and will then be the owner of the only 24 Karat mask of Tricky Dick. I’ll let you guys know how it works. No sleep tonight! This is science, and I feel a breakthrough will be made before dawn. We can collaborate later on the paper we will publish for Nobel consideration and squabble about whose name is on top later. I must be off…….wait……. there is a fireworks stand close by, if the acetylene and high octane don’t do it, I’ll grab some heavy ordinance from that rickety stand No bolt cutters needed here. Do they still use black powder in this safe and sane crap? I must not forget the sparklers - for effect - I think they will show up nicely on the film. We should be able to wrap this up before July is old and I’m sure we can work out some sort of award rotation so that all who were part of this cutting edge experiment may feel their proper due. This is Hard Science!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 06:22
2weeks From the lookout>(From the lookout):
SPIKE AHEAD!! SPIKE AHEAD!!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 05:58
RJ Gold: Morning Last>(Gold: Morning Last):
REB - I defer to D.A. as to the numbers. I have had an opportunity to follow up on a few bits of D.A.'s info from the floor. I have found him to be very accurate and I have heard some things from him that I have heard nowhere else. He is a valuable source of info. As for the action in the market this morning, gold was fast and furious, some prices lasting for fraction of a second. When I kept seeing red numbers come up - red signifies a new low - I know the market would close on the downside. Gold closed at 1:10 today and up until 30 minutes prior the ticks were all over the place. Any one who spends a lot of time with real time prices ( I use the Future Source ) , its fairly obvious when a big order goes in. Gold dropped $3 in a blink with silver keeping pace. This happened right before the close and left many in NY reeling with no chance to respond. This was definitely an engineered last minute slam, but by who, I know not. The sell was so late there was no chance to hit sell stops, nor for shorts to cover. My guess is that the play is in Hong Kong or Tokyo who I expect to buy it up quick. Mostly short covering but if significant new longs are placed gold could close $334 - $335 today. Remember, they get another shot at it Sunday night before NY opens. I was looking for a buying bounce, we could see some short covering in NY. If that is the case, I agree with D.A. that the bottom is in. This one at least. I dearly hope we get up to $345 next week, I won’t be the only one laying in new shorts.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 05:03
Strad Master Happy 4th of July!>(Happy 4th of July!):
TO ALL AMERICANS: Let me be the first on this July 4th to wish all of us who celebrate the birth of the United States - this great and potentially even greater nation - a meaningful and happy holiday.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
At 9:15 BST

FTSE100 4842
DAX 3932
CAC 2922


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:37
REB na>(na):
DA: Your post http://165.247.202.114/comments/gold/thread/970703.225120.d.a.eeeee.htm
says yesterdays drop was the work of a single seller. Glenn: is that what you saw? As Bill Buckler said, someone wanted to see a lower gold price. RJ, what are your thoughts about that?

Seems to me this is important. If someone has been succssful in painting the tape to this degree, what is going on? The most obvious answer is that a lower price is wanted by someone who wants to buy ( or cover a short postion ) . Or maybe it was someone who had bought puts. Or sold in the money calls at a higher level.

It doesn't seem reasonable to me that the CB's are engineering this drop. Isn't gold already low enough to protect the reputation of paper.
Sorry this stuff is so random. No answers, only questions.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:34
Goldbug23 @Hopespringseternal>(@Hopespringseternal):
Gold up 1.35 and rising per EBN. Keep praying. Gold stocks off 3.85% in SA on open.Pray harder!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:19
REB na>(na):
For those of us who trade ( or invest ) in the stocks but not the physical, I submit that the question now arises of how to react. An interesting aspect of the current situation is that the rest of the world is putting in a full day of trading before most in the USA are able to react.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:17
Goldbug23 @I am seeing.....>(@I am seeing.....):
Mooney, I refuse to name the color on this thread so you can keep your prize. But it does turn to a golden color later and we are obviously all waiting, patiently Cycles are still with us, let us pray.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Nikkei close 19, 968 down 153. Dollar buys 113.52 yen. Can't find any gold news on the Nikkei net. You are welcome to try. It is running very slow tonight.

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/index.html


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:12
REB @late>(@late):
Anyone notice the dollar tonight? Down against virtually everything.

RJ: My hat also is off to you. Both with regard to your eloquence and to your good will shown to all.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 04:08
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):
RJ, I predict when you turn to words you will have great success. You also have a good feel obviously for markets. I always felt John D. McDonald ( fiction writer ) had a great way with words and you far surpass him. Good luck, and I also add my thanks for your lucid 01:30 post.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 03:22
RJ Color of Molten Gold>(Color of Molten Gold):
Mooney - OK, instead of silver, platinum.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 03:06
RJ Moulton Gold>(Moulton Gold):
Mooney - Silver


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:59
RJ All part of the plan>(All part of the plan):
Ron - My initial posts were designed to be noticed. I have read this sight for a year, and had a good idea of just what would jerk a few chains. That is not to say that I didn't believe what I said, just that the delivery was designed to be a bit in the face. As for toning things down, I always knew what impression I was making, once my introduction was made, people would look for substance. I hope I have supplied some. As for my sometimes maniacal ramblings, I guess when I'm done with the metals in a decade or so, and my future is secure, I may finally turn to my true love, words. They are delightful little playthings to be recombined at will on the palette of the mind. Only in the written word does one communicate directly with the mind of another. I appreciate the tolerance of some of my more off-subject meandering but, as Strad will confirm, true music comes from the heart, bypassing the brain entirely. That is the difference between a technician and an artist. I have thoroughly enjoyed the talented and humorous writings of many here. The Earl of prose, Mike Sheller's inspired portraits in absurdities, the effervescent blurts of EB, the patient sniping of Bernatz de ventadorm, the of Cherokee, the earnest posts of Auric and Gunrunner, The clear thinking of John Disney, Glenn, George, and D.A. , The directness of Front, even the oft grumpy rumblings of Eldorado. I’m starting to feel a bit at home, and thanks for allowing me into your world. Oh, and another thing, I have never, nor will never post under any nom de plume. I doubt I could get away with it anyway, my bombastic nature would give me away after the first few hundred words.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:55
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Hey, doesn't anyone on the West Coast stay up past midnight anymore? Where're all my rowdy friends? . . . Such good port and no one to share it with! . . . All right, then. I'm off to the wild and woolly reaches of usenet. G'night, all. And sweet golden dreams, to 'ya.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:46
Ron Best Indicator>(Best Indicator):
I'm looking for spot gold to fall below $320 since Bart's Spot Gold Prices chart at http:///gold.graph.html never allows enough room at the bottom of the chart!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:41
Ron Correction>(Correction):
Mark Twain died in 1910. 1920 was a typo.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:15
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
RJ: Wow your 1:30 and 1:47! I've read whole chapters and gotten less information. So I second Strad's thanks. Scares the bejesus out of me though that there are folks out there who can tell how many martinis traders have had for lunch just based on the tape! Maybe I _should_ be on the sidelines, afterall. Incidentally, I think you mentioned something once about toning down your rhetoric. You've done a great job of it. Makes your material much more digestible and appreciated. My hat's off to you, because I think many people are incapable of making such an adjustment. Keep posting, please -- I have much to learn.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 02:08
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
Earl ( Jul 3 21:57 ) and RJ ( Jul 4 1:30 ) Two CHOICE posts! Thank you both.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:58
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Gold making further new lows in Hong Kong at the moment. Here's a gold bug quiz. ( easy for true bugs ) What is the colour of molten Gold? First correct answer wins a prize. ( Becoming the first person to post the correct answer on kitco is the prize! :- ) )


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:47
RJ Silver>(Silver):
I bought some silver today as I believe it will benefit from the gold rally next week. The downside looks to be no further than 4.40, which is a real possibility. We should se another run at 5.00 soon, look for a failure above 4.80 to bail. If 5.00 is breached, 5.25 - 5.30 will happen quick. Silver is showing us a perfect opportunity to layer some trades. Buy at 4.50, if it dips to 4.40 buy some more. Layer out the same way on the way up. Silver may suffer under the weight of gold, buy silver is like a champion horse, it has a hard time standing still. Silver likes to run. Let it and follow its lead. Nobody knows silver. At the same time, silver may be the most purely manipulated of all the metals. Learn its patterns, buy its strengths, sell the weaknesses. I like silver at this price, I’m happy to own some. The risk seems small here. The same can be said for gold, but gold doesn’t have the short term upside potential silver has.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:44
Strad Master Many thanks>(Many thanks):
RJ: Your comments are VERY helpful and are already printed out to be saved in perpetuity. I really appreciate them as I suspect many others here at Kitco do too. While learning to play the violin may be extraordinarily difficult, at least you can't go broke doing it. Also it is important to have a skilled mentor to oversee the process both for the violin as well as metals. I always have appreciated those willing to share their expertise, so my hat's off to you, sir. You are a gentleman and a scholar!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:35
RJ Its all clear now>(Its all clear now):
No one told me Mike Sheller was voluptuous. Maybe that’s why he likes that nubile buxom stuff.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:31
Jack Organ>(Organ):

If those mines can shutter without doing major damage to themselves and their work force, then they should close down.
I owned Pegasus a long while back, but now have little confidence in them or ECO. It seems obvious that all three need much higher gold prices to make a go of it. RYO's new prospects seem to have more problems than just the gold price. As for ABX


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:30
RJ Play these market like a violin>(Play these market like a violin):
My reasons for being bearish on gold near term are less technical than psychological. I have detailed these reasons in previous posts. I no longer trust the charts on gold, likewise palladium. If one had purchased gold at any one of the numerous recent buy signals, their gold would be worth a lot less than what they paid for it. Strategically, I still expect gold to go lower, CB sales and flying equities have killed gold for the next few months. Short term, I look for a small rally before another drop. Asians and Indians have demonstrated time an again they will buy dips in the market. A dip can happen at any price level. The last dip was 350 to 340. When gold twice failed at 348, 335 was in the cards. Much of the feeling for this type of market comes from watching real time price changes and recognizing patterns. When you see a metal knock up against resistance two or three times in ten minutes and fail, look for a drop. There always seems to be a lag when Chicago goes to lunch ( interestingly New York never seems to go to lunch ) between 9:30 and 10:30 California time, I can usually take a breather. You can tell exactly how many martinis the traders have had by the tone of their trading between 10:30 and 11:30 PST

It is also important to be aware of open interest and whether the commercials or the speculators are driving the market. Always read open interest with a keen eye toward volume as this will tell you which way the market is likely to go short term. Delivery dates and option expiration dates are freebies to anyone who knows how to read them. The reason most options expire worthless, is that the writers of the options own the metal that can move the market. They will invariably count their puts and calls and park the price where the will make the most cash. This tactic is usually very successful and only fails in a runaway market. First delivery notice on near month contracts can often give the same heads up as to direction.

You must always be aware of what the rest of the world is doing. The CNN Bridge links on Kitco can be very helpful in this regard. In the recent run up in palladium, I often found the CNN stories to be more accurate than Reuters although far less timely.

The next key ingredient is a broker’s personal contacts. You need information on who is buying and why. Information is useless unless you know the source. The more experience a broker has, the more contacts he is likely to have, although I have known some brokers who have never cultivated contacts on the trading floors in the US and abroad.

When all these ingredients are added together, then, and only then, look to the charts for technical analysis. If the charts told the whole story, everyone would make a fortune in these markets. Sadly, charts have probably been responsible for more losses than any other factor. Trading by charts is like a system for roulette, looks good on paper, but you will loose in the long run.

Lastly, is the willingness to take losses as well as profits. If you are on the wrong side of the trade, don’t close your eyes, clench your little fists, and wish it wasn’t so. Get out and get on the right side of the market. Decide if you are a long term trader of a short term trader and trade accordingly. When you have profits, take them! Don’t do all or nothing trades, layer you buys and sells, leave yourself an out. Place a limit to buy at a reasonable level below the market but recognize a breakout and buy higher if you must.

The most important advise I can give anyone is to never buck the trend. The trend is your friend. If a market in trending down, don’t buy. Look to place shorts with tight stops until the market turns, then buy the breakout. No one can pick a bottom or a top. Those that think they can may get lucky occasionally but they will always loose in the long run. Never chase the market. Sadly, most American investors love to chase the market. When silver was 4.50 in 1979 no one wanted it, when it was $45 ten months later, people were mortgaging houses to buy some. That is why I am content to sit out palladium, the market has turned irrational and a single day can wipe someone out.

This has been a rather oversimplified description of what I look at and look for in these markets. Always remember, metals are self teaching. It is painfully obvious when you are wrong. I hope this helps.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:28
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Told to me by a friend: In order for gold to get to $400/oz by December, Alan Greenspan would have to die! He's got a legacy to protect, and there is nothing he wouldn't do to prevent gold from going that high.

If that's true, wouldn't Alice Rivlin and others on the Fed step up and continue bashing gold if AG weren't around? Why do you think it would it end with Greenie, I asked.

Oh, Alice Rivlin and the others! She's there to protect Clinton's legacy, not Greenie's, and doesn't give two hoots for gold.

Comments?

RJ: I'm sure you realize by now that I did not write the physics lecture. But yours was masterful! ROFL. Thanks!
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
I am not young enough to know everything.
--Oscar Wilde ( 1854-1900 )

The closing years of life are like the end of a masquerade party when the masks are dropped.
--Arthur Schopenhauer ( 1788-1860 )

Statistics show that we lose more fools on this day than on all other days of the year put together. This proves, by the numbers left in stock, that one Fourth of July per year is now inadequate, the country has grown so.
--Mark Twain ( 1835-1920 )

Jacques Cousteau just died. I guess now he sleeps with the fishes.
--unknown
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%




Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:07
Organ @ Dinner Party>(@ Dinner Party):
Tonight a professional geologist and expert gold investor came over for dinner and he was explaining some of the fundamentals of the gold leasing market. He said that $350/oz. is a line in the sand for many high cost producers like Royal Oak, Pegasus, Echo Bay, etc. However, apparently it is quite costly to close down production on a mine, so that it is in the interests of many gold companies to forward sell/hedge production below $350, instead of closing down, because this is roughly the point where these companies are profitable. This holds true to around the $330 level. At this point, apparently the boards of the gold companies decided that it did not make sense to cannibalize their market anymore, and production would have to be terminated. Now that this point has been breached, Royal Oak, Pegasus and Echo Bay will soon shut down, and Getchell is not too far behind. Even Munkey, the king of the forward sellers, has begun to realize the folly of hedging production 2 years foward in an environment when demand outstrips supply by a significant margin.

This fellow is extremely bullish on Newmont Mining, which is giving me more confidence in the fundamentals ... I'm not going to cover my longs just yet. If those mines close down, and the shorts cover, and Munkey slows down the future production hedging ... WOW!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 01:02
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
There I go again, getting as picky as that fun-loving, voluptuous, Mike Sheller. Next thing you know I'll be talking about that Braveheart movie again.
BTW - D.A. deserves EXTREME credit for his warnings of yesterday that there were NO buyers of Gold at his company. Anybody heavy on the long side who took head of that warning should now send D.A. an ounze or two.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:53
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl):
Earl - Just read your July 3 21:57 - Fantabulous!

George - As I have said previously, we are practically ALWAYS on the same waveLENGTH. ( Scott - please also adjust your waveLENGTH ) .


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:46
ark salted@the ore>(salted@the ore):
I'm not the brightest kid on the block but I can't let
this FIBONACCI random number stuff go without a comment.
Wasn't it James Gleick author of Chaos that said that
reading Fibonacci
numbers is like reading a computer print out of outer space
static. Maybe not but he could have. Life is too short for
that stuff.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:30
Strad Master Tentative query>(Tentative query):
RJ: What methods, indices, etc. do you use to determine which way things are likely to go for any particular metal. You've been predicting a dip to the 330 level for a long while. Some strong indications must have convinced you that it would happen. Would you mind sharing that with us so we can look in the right direction? ( I hope this is a generic enough question for you to answer. I no longer own any gold, short or long - having been forced to unload that, as well. So any comments you might make are for the benefit of the group as a whole. ) I do still have some silver ( still hedged ) . Would it be improper of me to wonder what your feelings about silver are for the short and medium term?


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:24
ezau swami@sag.ta>(swami@sag.ta):
Even a blind pig can find a few acorns.
I trust we can mark this day to history and know that we
are one day closer. Not a very good correlation of gold stocks
to bullion. The shorts will cover. Didn't the government
change the rules on the Hunt brother's silver corner? Just
a thought all you short guys. I'd be nervous, if one
thinks he can get an even break. Better get your money
while you can. Was it Ringer that wrote the book about
looking out for number one? Yep, he said you got to have
a have and have not pile. Just about the time you go to
pick up your chips somebody whacks your knuckles. Now,
if the phones are busy, the net jammed, and you can't walk
next door to your broker how are you going to cover? What
if gold spikes to the upside? Heavens. Have a pleasant
weekend!!!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:23
Puetz @ Cash-less society>(@ Cash-less society):
Kid-silver: The cash-less society is based on confidence. As long as real money is not demanded, a cash-less society is possible. Once confidence is broken, gold and silver will be demanded!!!!!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:17
Hong Kong Hangseng@down>(Hangseng@down):
In the far east tonight the Hang Seng index is down sharply currently -253 pts and gold is up. Does anyone see a connection or is it just happen stance?



Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:16
2BR02B? @cockadoodler>(@cockadoodler):
I would say the reasons you continue to hold gold are
cognitive dissonance coupled with a stubborn streak.


That assumes the reason one holds gold is to make money.
Making money is what printing presses do. Another reason,
and I do mean reason, to hold gold is that fiat currency
is wrong. Some are plumb fed up. I do mean plumb, and also
Fed up. Then some are torched clear through. As in torched
and in clear. What hurts is not the price of gold. It's
that in these sorts one finds the best, and of late and
later, rare and rarer.






Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:15
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Give him a break guys! It must really be tough working in a lab with all the constant pressure of knowing that any moment one of the test tubes might fall to the floor and you are instantly infected with one of the deadliest diseases known to man.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:14
John hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Hey, yo. We are not done yet dudes. My Fibonacci
wave analysis predicts further drops. Yes my friends,
we will see $100/oz by year 2000. The great John has
spoken!


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:06
KidSilver @ 1>(@ 1):
Steve Puetz - I submit World leaders want our present monitary system to fail. Then they can impliment the long awaited Cashless Society.

What place does gold have in a world using electronic money? It will
loose it's luster when it's every move can be tracked by computer.


Omni magazine, June 1991, ( p.59 ) made this surprising statement, CASH AND CREDIT CARDS WILL SOON BE OBSOLETE. InformationWeek, Oct. 11, 1993, boldly trumpeted on it's cover, The Cashless Society, It's in the Cards, The article dogmatically stated, ( p.4 ) Bet your bottom dollar: The United States IS BECOMING A CASHLESS SOCIETY . . .

The fastest growing movement in the financial world is smart cards. Smart cards, which resemble ordinary credit cards, contain tiny computer chips, capable of storing data, such as bank accounts, medical information, etc. Already widely used in Japan and Europe, according to InformationWeek, ( p.4 ) BY NEXT YEAR, cards will be used to pay for health care and insurance, to receive government benefits, and to buy items in vending machines . . .

Newsweek magazine, July 31, 1989, ( p.54 ) said smart cards, may make the old science-fiction notion of a CASHLESS SOCIETY REAL. A pilot program is already being tested at the Marine Corp's Parris Island training base in South Carolina. According to Newsweek, On payday, recruits receive
smart cards rather than cash. When a marine makes a purchase on base, he plugs the card into a small terminal and the sum is automatically deducted from his pay. Newsweek says, THE BASE IS, IN FACT, A CASHLESS ECONOMY -- even the telephones take smart cards.

The Birmingham News, August, 24, 1993, ( p.1B ) report on smart cards, said, Before long, you'll use this electronic check to pay for groceries, gasoline, taxes, stamps, fast food -- in virtually any business where you now use checks or cash. Robert Mckinley, president of RAM Research Corp. says, You've heard about the cashless society . . . IT MAY FINALLY BE ON ITS WAY.

Infosecurity News, Sept/Oct 93 ( p.27 ) , writes, An extraordinary effort is now underway to build an INFRASTRUCTURE FOR LARGE-SCALE USE of smart cards in electronic data interchange, national health- care systems, financial-transaction systems and interactive home services . . .

Pilot programs, utilizing smart cards, are already being tested in Minnesota, New Jersey, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Dayton, Ohio. And according to Lawrence Rudmann, USDA Director of Public Affairs, It's only a matter of time before ALL FEDERAL PROGRAMS -- are brought into compliance,. . .


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:02
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

And so, it comes to an end - This glorious day and this vainglorious man
they called Hepcat. I am reminded at this moment of a frugal carpenter,
an outcast among his own people for how he lived and what he said.
His message was clear, and still resonates to this day. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I had a hammer, $325, and
I seriously nailed all of you.


Date: Fri Jul 04 1997 00:02
RJ D.A.>(D.A.):
I must admit, I truly covet that coin..............


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:58
RJ Pardon the moralizing>(Pardon the moralizing):
I first started to trade metals in 1984, which makes me a child by comparison to some here, but hardly a neophyte. I have seen many come and go, some with a few shekels left in their pockets, others with broken spines to match their spirits. After awhile one begins to recognize certain types who are more susceptible to failure than others. While this can be a widely varied group, none fail as consistently and thoroughly as those who think they can predict tomorrow. One may have an educated goal, but he claims to know what no one on earth could possibly know. When this unfortunate soul’s wishes come true he will often believe that his knowledge and conviction made it so. These types have never truly understood the stopped clock correct twice a day analogy, no, these people believe they know or knew. It is an amusing pastime to those of us who have survived in this market for years to keep our eyes on these sad people who believe the world moves because they want it to. We will sometimes wager on the timing or extent of the final fall that awaits all who think they can predict these markets. Like the unsophisticated gambler who wins a few rolls of the dice and then bets the farm. It is longevity and consistency that earn respect, not shouts of RESPCT ME, as these are usually borne of insecurity. Another common trait to these unfortunates is that they can call it all, but never with any cash on the line. This mental masturbation inflates their feelings of self worth while becoming ever more pitiful in the eyes of those whose intimate familiarity with these markets realize, that none know anything about tomorrow. One cannot even know if one will awake tomorrow. The saddest part of all is that those who need to lean this undeniable fact, deny they need to lean anything, for they already know.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:51
Scotty @check.this.out>(@check.this.out):
For all you bubble watchers......the Thai market has gone from pauper to boom to bust and working on boom again ( after the Thai govt devalued the Baht ) . Here's an interesting article of some poor slob trying to make a killing on the Thai market. How many identical slobs are trying to do the same with the US stock market?

http://www.asiatimes.com/97/07/04/04079706.html



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:46
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Earl - Obviously you've never owned a used parrot who was trained to say Rack 'em by his previous owner ( a pool player ) . Anyway, if you're a friend of the D.A., well...put 'er there, bud. No more goading.






Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:45
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Aurophile @22:43: LOL. Well done. Understated for effect.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:34
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
John: Apparently my case rests on your subsequent comments. So it shall. With one additional thought: That a parrot trained to similar utterance would, at once, be similarly incredible, while having the natural advantage of being a delight to the senses and charming to the ear.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:31
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Aurophile - Please. Mike was DQ'ed. Can't I at least be acknowledged
as Clubber Lange?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:22
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Pizza Man - Yo dude. I hear ya. But there has definitely NOT been enough
crowing up to this point. The one-man lovefest is going to continue, count
on it. I took it on the chin for 10 months on this site. Not because I was wrong,
but because I was right. I was right from the beginning, and all of the experts
on this site yelled and whined and sent me threatening E-mail and said
really nasty things about my cooking and I survived it. And I am the same
person I was 10 months ago. I never reciprocated and I never backed down
and I never figured out what happened to the rhodium quote ( you could set
your calendar to that thing ) and I kept reaching for the dream. And I hope
in some small way I have made a path for dissenting opinion on this site,
and I have opened the door a little wider for minorities and minority opinions,
and I look forward to tonight's lecture on the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
and the Bohr atom. Can you indulge me for a few hours more? Actually
now just thirty minutes. I'm starting to tear up.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:14
D.A. another.lost.opportunity>(another.lost.opportunity):
RJ:

I know, I know, you made millions today. But wouldn't it have been nice to have gotten a bright yellow coin that you could paste to your terminal and tell all your broker buddies how you won it off some guy on the internet? C'mon, what do say 400 before 300, and I'll throw in free engraving.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:11
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):

Gold in Australia :
1,360.00 = Index :
-68.0 = Movement :
-4.7 = % :


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:09
D.A. unfair?>(unfair?):
Jcat:

What's the problem? When I last offered the bet spot was at 323.75. All we are seeing now is noise. Last was 325.85 on EBN. If you don't like my markets come back with an offer.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:09
Puetz @ Kid Silver>(@ Kid Silver):
Kid Silver: Historicly, money has been what citizens have wanted, not what governments have wished. Popular heads-of-state always cater to the demands of citizens. Gold and silver will re-emerge as money, not because of government action, but because of popular demand.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:06
George Cole nearly done>(nearly done):
Earl: I meant nearly done TIMEWISE. If we get another spike down, I suspect we may drop as low as $310-$315.

Glenn: Would be most interested in your take on today's developments.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:05
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

D.A. - Hey. Now who's being unfair?
Re Earl. I'll have to take your word for it.
He's awfully pedantic. Could you apologize to him for me?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:02
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

What a day!
I guess that really sums it up, doesn't it?
I probably could gloat at this point, but somebody just exhausted
the five-minute gloat quota. Did the temperature just drop imperceptibly,
or was it me?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:00
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
What I am saying is significant to gold as the market is driven by commercials ( long term ) . The computer processors are much bigger and contain more gold. When the Pentium II chips are in full flight, gold is going to be on demmand more than is needed today. Whats more, is that the Pentium II chip requires a new motherboard which also requires gold. Next year gold is going to be under great demmand as everybody makes the move to new technology. $325/oz HAHAHAHA You wait and see!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 23:00
Pizza Man Crowing Rooster>(Crowing Rooster):
John: Congratulations! Good call. Enough crowing for now, how about
your prediction for the next 2 weeks. I'll bet you I can make a large
Pepperoni Pizza faster!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:54
NJ mixups>(mixups):
Bill Buckler : I was indeed referring to you in my last post and called you Ted Buckler by mistake. Please accept my apology for the gaffe.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:53
RJ What a day!>(What a day!):
Those of you who have read my mad ramblings of the past month know that I have called for lower gold prices from $348 down. I covered 2500 oz at $334 kept 2000 oz and put on another 500 oz at $338. As I expressed earlier this week, I was looking for $330, maybe $329. Never in my fondest hopes did I expect $324. I recall backing down from a few wagers from folks who expected to see $350 before $325. I am still glad I did not take those bets. I honestly couldn’t see $325 this go around. Now for the first time since I began posting to the group, I hold no gold shorts - except for one client who I couldn’t get in touch with today who has just 100 oz. I waited for the close to get out, knowing that these were fresh shorts fueling this drop and that it was extremely unlikely the new longs would be put in going into a holiday.

I expect Asia and India to buy it back up 6 - 10 dollars by Tuesday at the latest. I will look to place new shorts above $335, $340 if I can get it. I do believe now we will see $300 in the next couple months, unless lease rates rise to prohibitive levels. With all my bearish talk, I take a conservative approach to this market. My clients made better than 150K in the last month on gold shorts, but the time has come to pull ‘em all. $324 was a gift, and I am not ungrateful. Beware of buying gold until the dust settles. There will be plenty of gold for all at $300 and you won’t have to wait long. No, I will not take bets on $300. I would treat a wager the same as a client, I don’t need to find tops or bottoms. As long as I get near them, I’m happy. I would love to gloat a bit, but those who gloat believe too much in their own press. I never saw $324, I Just hoped for $330.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:53
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold is used in computer processes: The new generation of Pentium chips include the level 2 cache memory in a cartridge. So, one might say a processor manufacturer may need more gold in the near future mmmnnn. Memory manufactures are well .... whats the Dow doing ? What I'm getting at is that the current technology stocks are going to move a bit towards the end of this year, primarily due to changes in the way computers are constructed ( designed ) . When traditional companies profits lose ground, it might give reason for a selling spree mmmnn DOW where are you!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:51
visitor just passing through>(just passing through):
john;Thu Jul 03 1997 21:41 here's that info you were looking for, however, this does NOT require you to buy and/or sell said investment. That choice is ALWAYS yours. Due dilligence is always required. I happen to own a few shares as it seemed promising to me, however, it has not panned out as well as I had hoped for when I bought it. O well, it's near its all time high so I guess I could sell it if I wanted out.
http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=isb.v&detailed=t


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:51
D.A. all.packed.and.nowhere.to.go>(all.packed.and.nowhere.to.go):
All:

Imagine that, today is Thursday. Who said they could release employment numbers on a Thursday anyway?

On a related topic it appears that either the Hash man cometh, or someone else is doing a good impersonation. Another 4 billion worth of U.S. paper was sold last week from the Fed's custody account. It had long been bandied about here by myself and others that the massive inflows into our paper from foreign CB's was the major force behind the bubble. It does appear that the air is starting to leak. That bonds would make it all the way to key resistance ( see Panda's chart ) but no more while gold disappeared off the bottom of the chart, is not a good sign for bonds.

The selling at the close of Comex trading was engineered by one seller. About 300000 ounces of gold ( paper ) and 5000000 ounces of silver ( paper ) were dumped on the market in a matter of minutes. The intent was clearly to drive the price down. No one trying to exit a position would blast away at the market while everyone was shutting down and heading for a long holiday weekend. This selling was most likely linked to the put buying over the last few days. Watch close now at how the market reacts. If the bounce is strong and the sellers get hooked it will snowball and the bottom will be in. Last I looked the price at EBN was 326.

J.Cat: You will have to suffer my presence for another evening. What do you one ounce says 325.10 or better on the London PM fix monday? BTW: If you've got Earl pissed at you, perhaps you ought to tone down the rhetoric. He's pretty easy to get along with, and his displeasure is meaningful.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:47
KidSilver @>(@):
Steve Puetz - After the crash, what if the worlds governments all
go to some form of smart card money? There is much talk about the current
bull market or precious metals. What about plan C? Some form of E-Money
where all transactions can be traced and even the personal buying and
selling of gold would be tracked.

The end of privacy.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:46
NJ proxy >(proxy ):
John : You said you are a government servant. Rubin is the one entitled to some ( in Hashimoto's face ) chest thumping on today's action in the gold market. As remarked by Ted Buckler, this was a well orchestrated and masterly coup in the gold market, not dissimilar to a historic raid by Rubin in the Forex markets in support of the dollar. Just wondering if as a government servant you are not a planted mole assigned to thump Rubin's chest in proxy. If so, you have done it very well and now it is time to stop.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:46
ark saltedbrain>(saltedbrain):
We received a couple of answers to my quiz re Lord Keynes.
in the long run we are all dead was, I think, the last
phrase of a sentence refering to slow inflation beginning
during the 1930's. He ofcourse was correct, except for
the children that FDR wanted to protect ( as did every other
politician since Augustus Ceasar, I suppose.

So, here is a multiple choice question ( you get extra credit
for answering it; you can buy spot gold at $325 )

A country loses a war to a visious enemy. The losing
nation can expect the following to be carried off to the
victor's homeland:

A. bank letters of credit
B. bank notes
C. promises to pay other notes
D. nubile young virgins
E. all the gold they can get their hands on, including
tooth fillings
F. All the paper money extant

I would like to know who is buying the gold? Have you
noticed that gold stocks have remained relatively stable
these last two weeks?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:46
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Don't bother upgrading your computer unless it is to a Pentium II 233Mhz. Prices are going to fall this quater and if you upgrade now to say a Pentium 200Mhz MMX, you will be wasting your money. By the way, AMD and Cyrix ( processor manufactures ) are making significant headway in sales at the moment compared to INTEL. If we don't see a crash this year, AMD would be my pearl for profit. INTEL is going to be a loser and maybe the DOW.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Don't bother upgrading your computer unless it is to a Pentium II 233Mhz. Prices are going to fall this quater and if you upgrade now to say a Pentium 200Mhz MMX, you will be wasting your money. By the way, AMD and Cyrix ( processor manufactures ) are making significant headway in sales at the moment compared to INTEL. If we don't see a crash this year, AMD would be my pearl for profit. INTEL is going to be a loser and maybe the DOW.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:43
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
john: congratulations on achieving your long hoped-for goal of becoming the tyson of technical analysis. you must be so proud, and by your own admission. we all recognize you for what you are.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:41
Reify @another note>(@another note):
Haven't heard a crowing rooster in some time, but then I never did like their sounds that much. But when on the farm one has to learn to adjust to the sounds and smells. 325, over and hopefully out.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:36
Reify @Congrats FRONT>(@Congrats FRONT):
Front, a slightly belated mazal tov ( congratulations ) on the birth of your 1st granddaughter. Taking my 1st to London for her batmitzva ( confirmation ) soon.
It's a grand day for grandpas and grandmas!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:34
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
With a lot of old-timers returning to Kitco tonight, no doubt because
one of their own called it, a truly momentous occasion ( And please,
I can't even begin to answer all the E-mails showering me with
accolades, you're just going to have to wait ) , it makes me kind of wonder
if Oldman is among us. Remember how he always used to talk about
how reliant he was on his computer, and how many upgrades he'd gone
through? Dagnabit, that search function is on the fritz, or I would look
up and see how many upgrades he's gone through. Maybe he's
due for a new upgrade, heck, maybe he's upgrading right now
and that's why he can't be here.
I remember when he thought $349 was the bottom.
We would sure have a good chuckle about that one.
My, what memories.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:34
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
George S. Cole ( same wavelenght ) : I would have to agree, the downward spike is due to CB Aussie sales ( 2 billion dollars ) which made front page of todays paper, and short speculating. Take these two ingredients out of the market next week and we may have somthing. At the current spot price, investors don't need much excuse to start buying. Perhaps a rally of four to five dollars will make the OBSERVERS come out of the closet and begin a rally. Once the rally starts, I think momentium will carry gold to $350 at which time I would be tempted to sell due to profit taking.
At $350 the market will correct back to low 340s at which time I will become bullish again and buy. Unless somthing out of the ordinary happens, when gold rallies, you will need to cash in quick before a correction occurs. Its what I call a frenzy profit taking spree!!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:34
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
George S. Cole ( same wavelenght ) : I would have to agree, the downward spike is due to CB Aussie sales ( 2 billion dollars ) which made front page of todays paper, and short speculating. Take these two ingredients out of the market next week and we may have somthing. At the current spot price, investors don't need much excuse to start buying. Perhaps a rally of four to five dollars will make the OBSERVERS come out of the closet and begin a rally. Once the rally starts, I think momentium will carry gold to $350 at which time I would be tempted to sell due to profit taking.
At $350 the market will correct bck to low 340s at which time I will become bullish again and buy. Unless somthing out of the ordinary happens, when gold rallies, you will need to cash in quick before a correction occurs. Its what I call a frenzy profit taking spree!!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:31
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
George S. Cole: Jeeeez George. A spike here, a spike there and pretty soon yer talkin' serious damage. .... ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:24
Puetz @ Donald>(@ Donald):
Donald: 5 stars for best joke of the day ( warehouse joke ) !!!!!
I too thought there might be an inflationary spike upward before the economic collapse began. Now, that scenario looks unlikely. The downward spiral is gaining momentum so quickly that deflation is gaining the upper-hand.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:22
George S. Cole same wavelenght>(same wavelenght):
MOONEY: We are still on the same wavelenght. If bullion rallies strongly next week on heavy volume and with the gold stocks participating, we are on our way. A weak rally means more downside fireworks quite soon. But another spike lower or not, this bear market is nearly done.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:21
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
The rise in gold at the present time seems to coming from Hong Kong ( maybe ) . Look at kitco 24 hour spot price and notice the increase as HK market comes on-line.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:19
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Earl - I'm sorry you feel that way. It means I don't even
have to exert any effort to insult you.

Earl, did you notice the price of gold today?
Let's see, who called that? What it someone named Earl?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:17
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
OBSERVER ( Food for Thought: Good to see that you read the same reports as I do. Whats your thoughts on the posting?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
John: I find your personal behavior so reprehensible, so childish in the extreme, that any response on your part to anything I write is fully taken as an insult.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Panda: Your chart is clearly showing the much dreaded Auroelf Triangle. More deadly than the Bermuda variety. It always breaks to the flat side .... but in recent history..... only for the goldbugs. However, perhaps truth and justice will prevail and the Good Guys will win this one. Eh?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:08
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
NotaGoldbug ( jul 03 20:26 ) What would I have done. I would have been buying Gold with both hands, just as Hashimoto has threatened to do. As a Central Banker, I have a primary responsibility for the future of all the citizens in my nation. I control both the value and the amount of their money.

Government's are people. Yep, so are you and I, NotaGoldbug. But a central banker is not just another people. He or she has a great responsibility, a responsibility that has been deplorably reneged on, just as Greenspan and Co. have reneged on theirs.

To put this in perspective, when the head Geologist for Bre-X announced that there was 200 million ounces of Gold in his mine, the price went up a bit. Would you call that manipulation. Of course, he was subsequently proven wrong.

When a central bank of a Dollar bloc nation which happens to be the third-largest gold producing nation in the world announces a Gold sale, and he does it knowing the primary fear in the gold markets is central bank sales, I call that manipulation. When the central bank does it on the last day before a long weekend in the U.S., having already sold the Gold so the price drop will not affect the sale, well, what would you call it?

The difference between the head of Bre-X and the head of the Aussie ( or US ) central bank is that the Bre-X chief doesn't control anybody's money. He receives it voluntarily. A central bank chief control's everybody's money. And no one has any choice in the matter.

BTW, the Aussie reserve bank is going to use the proceeds to buy U.S. ( and German and Japanese ) debt paper. It pays interest, which will all go to the Aussie govt to battle their budget deficit.

Charts are up at my site now, commentary will take a bit longer.
http://www.the-privateer.com


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:06
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Earl - Great post. Based on your response to Tanami,
I would say the reasons you continue to hold gold
are cognitive dissonance coupled with a stubborn streak.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:05
OBSERVER Food for Thought>(Food for Thought):


Gold Mining Outlook

by Steven Jon Kaplan



Be sure to check in Monday evening for the traders' commitments.

Updated @ 5:10 p.m. EDT, Thursday, July 3, 1997.

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities, including precious metals, were lower on Thursday, with gold
hitting the remaining sell stops and facing a frenetic new round of speculator short selling to briefly touch
$323 per troy ounce, its lowest level since early December 1985. For the day, gold futures were down
$7.10, with silver dropping 7.5 cents, platinum lower by $2.00, and palladium declining $1.50. Australia
has reduced its official gold reserves from 247 tonnes to 80 tonnes, and has declared that it is done with
its gold selling. Since COMEX gold futures open interest data for today's trading will not be available
until Monday, it cannot yet be officially established, but it is likely that the commercial net long position
is the highest ever and that the speculator net short position is also a record. Since the market was created
for the benefit of the commercials, they will have the final decisive say. Gold mining shares were only
slightly lower as the implications of the inevitable speculator short covering become increasingly apparent.
Nearly unanimously bearish analysts' commentary combined with heavy gold equity put buying is also
continuing to provide support for the shares.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:04
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Some light reading:

COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities, including precious metals, were lower on Thursday, with gold hitting the remaining sell stops and facing a frenetic new round of speculator short selling to briefly touch $323 per troy ounce, its lowest level since early December 1985. For the day, gold futures were down $7.10, with silver dropping 7.5 cents, platinum lower by $2.00, and palladium declining $1.50. Australia has reduced its official gold reserves from 247 tonnes to 80 tonnes, and has declared that it is done with its gold selling. Since COMEX gold futures open interest data for today's trading will not be available until Monday, it cannot yet be officially established, but it is likely that the commercial net long position is the highest ever and that the speculator net short position is also a record. Since the market was created for the benefit of the commercials, they will have the final decisive say. Gold mining shares were only slightly lower as the implications of the inevitable speculator short covering become increasingly apparent. Nearly unanimously bearish analysts' commentary combined with heavy gold equity put buying is also continuing to provide support for the shares.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 22:03
NJ words>(words):
Tanami : I second goldbug 23. Can you please rephrase your post in simple words.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
tanami:

Your comments are, for the most part, unassailable and while most of us are probably in the age range you have suspected, we are not averse to technological change. We aware of its implications and embrace those elements which serve our needs.

Since buying my first computer in 1983, I have subsequently upgraded every 3 years since then. I cannot imagine my world without the damned thing. In my opinion, the individuals on this site are certainly more cognizant of the world around them than the average yuppie and probably take greater advantage of technology in the process. Only an obscure Luddite would find comfort in building charts by hand.

For all of that though, we, goldbugs, have not lost sight of fundamentals. Not for a moment. Those fundamentals trascend gold. The metal is nothing more than a physical manifestation of the underlying value. That is, that any medium of exchange should remain tamper proof and beyond the effects of jiggling by others who would do so for their own benefit. I know it's silly for any of us to continue with such outmoded notions but there you have it. For better or worse.

We understand quite clearly the implications of 'silicon value'. Of sums of value neatly stored and placed in electronic vaults. I think we also understand how much more efficient world commerce can become as a result. No question about it. At the same time, we also understand that the relationship between those silicon numbers and our continuing ability to meet our daily needs is completely beyond our control. In other words, the value of the numbers, in terms of canned tuna or heart surgery, is to be determined by others, for reasons that we may or may not agree with.

For example, the value of our silicon store of value may be adjusted for silly political reasons. Something as childish as say; the Japanese Prime Minister's refusal to wear our proferred cowboy boots and in the process, embarrass our maximum leader. The example may be facetious but a rational view of the people who determine those values for us is not a cause for encouragement.

In my opinion, we are, unfortunately, bearing witness to perhaps the last battle between gerrymandered currencies and *value* that is beyond the pale of the tamperers. I choose the word unfortunately because we are caught in the middle of it. The stakes are high and we are not presently doing well. At the same time, the battle is well joined and the foe has sown the seeds of his own defeat. Though many of us will likely not see the final tactical manuevers. It sounds like another of those stupid crusades and in many ways I suppose it is. At the same time we are engaged in this presently foolish enterprise to make a buck. Most, I would imagine, find themselves involved as result of not knowing the depth and scope of the field of battle. We engaged too soon and now find ourselves enmeshed in something far beyond our original field of view.

Withdraw? Or see the thing through to its conclusion? A question on the mind's of many this weekend, I'm sure.

In the end, the silicon money of the future could just as well represent ounces of gold or platinum, accounted to individuals, as well as it currently reports, to the penny, the debt of nations. Which is what the present silicon money does, indeed, represent.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:53
Scott @Bachelor of Information Technology, Diploma of Business.>(@Bachelor of Information Technology, Diploma of Business.):
I'm no financial wizzard! Just a lame gold invester.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:48
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
tanami@science fiction: Interesting post at 20:14. I too have read it two times. I am wondering what age you are just as you wonder what the age is of most posters here. Did you just finish your Masters thesis in the paradigm of robotic intelligence? And I do not mean to be disrespectful, I am truly curious as to your background. I would also be interested in what you mean by the first order effect is the conversion to the digital paradigm which seems to transit in 4 month multiples? To be fair I should tell you I am 71, a student of markets since 8th grade, econ degree from a major university, and while my investments have not made me filthy rich I have made a few bucks along the way. I should also confess, I have a little suspicion you are really putting us on, at least in part? ;- )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:46
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
I would like to sell 200 tones of gold at $1 a ton. Any buyers

Question: What do you do when fake gold watches are worth more than real gold watches?

I reckon that a visit to Asia and buy all fake things you can because the world has gone insane and they will soon be worth more!!!!!!!!

Oh yeah, my gold stock did not drop any from yesturdays king hit mmmn ?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:41
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Oh, what a tremendous day it has been, both for me and
for Instep. ( Isb on some exchange, I forgot which, when
I went to look it up on secapl using c.isb, it said unknown
symbol, so either I forgot or they are defunct. )
I am so happy that I barely noticed how the
new dictate burning up the E-mail wires among the Kitco corps
is Ignore him, maybe he'll go away. This too will pass.
Guys, I think you should stop treating Scott that way.

Yes, all fame is fleeting, fron't wilter non, Met Wo, c'est la vie,
etc., but with the THREETWOFIVE Book of Goodness
you can relive the glorious autumn, winter, spring, and summer
of what some have called Either the biggest scam or the
most uplifting moment in human history, similar to Ruth pointing
towards the left field fence, had it actually happened

Remember this shining moment?

Earl, Earl, Earl - I hesitate to repeat myself

Or this one?

Earl, Earl, Earl - I hesitate to repeat myself ( oops, the
record skipped )

Relive the epic battles, the dressing downs, the devastating
one-word responses ( Prognostictor - No ) , all part of one
man's epic struggle to save a nation and change human
history forever.

All for an increadibly low price of $3.25
Not available in bookstores. This offer ends at midnight.




Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:39
y2k y2k>(y2k):
by Shawn Connally

The millennium bug and its chaotic implications are being taken
seriously by at least a portion of the companies it will affect. The
government is putting together a plan of action and a budget, and
small companies are hiring Cobol programmers to rewrite line after
line of code, but what are the implications for Wall Street?
Well, for starters, companies who've aligned themselves as part of the
Y2K solution-- and there are bunches-- are seeing a sharp rise in stock
prices. Wall Street has jumped on the Y2K bandwagon just as it did a
year or so ago with Internet company IPOs. But is Wall Street itself
ready for the millennium bug?
The New York Stock Exchange began its own Year 2000 project way
back in 1987. So far it has spent $29 million updating its systems. But
experts say it may be a day late and a dollar short.
I see a major correction as investors internalize the threat, a crash as
bank runs and other panic activity takes place, and a depression in the
wake of Y2K, predicts Tony Keyes, an authority figure on the Y2K
playing field.
And others agree.
When it dawns on Wall Street that those highly predictable rising
earnings are going to actually fall due to unplanned Y2K projects and
snafus, the Street is going to be very disappointed, predicts David
Eddy, founder of the Software Sales Group, which focuses on Y2K
solutions. In my personal experience, financially oriented people are
essentially incapable of grasping the significance of Y2K impacts.
To date, what I've seen of Wall Street's reaction to Y2K is to drive
some Y2K stocks into the stratosphere based on perceived promises
of the expected silver bullet solution. It's simply un-American to admit
that there's just not going to be a simple, quick fix for a problem of this size and complexity.
No cheap fixes
Keyes says very soon it will be profitable for a company to proclaim its
Y2K compliance. This will show up the company's competitors and
exclaim to the world that the company is ahead of the game, on the ball
and ready for the next century.
Insurance carriers and financial institutions such as larger brokerage
firms will be the first to proclaim their Y2K status as a market
differentiator, he says. Once this begins, other Fortune 500/1000
[companies] will follow. Soon it will be extremely unfashionable to be
quiet on this issue.
Market shutdown unlikely
And while everyone agrees there will be problems-- some drastic-- no
one's really saying there will be a total halt to the financial world. But it won't be cheap.
Lloyd's of London underwriters recently estimated that lawsuits arising
from the dreaded millennium bug will be upwards of $1 trillion in the
United States alone, according to a San Francisco Chronicle article.
My decidedly cloudy crystal ball indicates that the world will not simply stop on one of these magic dates, says Eddy. I see Y2K as a
process of boiling the frog, starting in cold water.
While I know Wall Street is where a lot of people are potentially
worried about Y2K impacts, personally I'm less concerned, he adds.
Wall Street ( and ) financial firms are completely accustomed to
operating in constant crisis mode and they're not afraid of throwing
tons of money at computer problems.
But that's not to say the Y2K hype isn't without its merits, especially
where big corporations are concerned.
I'd venture a guess that most of the current boardroom management
will not survive Y2K, Eddy continues. Certainly the largest of Fortune
1000 companies will be savaged by Y2K snafus. From my experience,
the biggest of the big are typically least capable of dealing with a
problem like this.
Consultant Paul Strassmann's article for Computerworld on the
millennium bug.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:38
WW @Panda>(@Panda):
Is the 2/3 held in private hands in tradeable form or carat, Last time I checked the carated form cost 700 to bring into tradeable form. So is the 2/3 above ground supply really supply. The real supply of gold is deriviative and not real but has been keeping the price low while the same phenomena has been the gas to financials. WHAT ISTHE POTENTIAL SUPPLY OF STKS AND BONDS AS A % OF GDP VERSUS REAL NON JEWELRY GOLD?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:33
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley):
Selby & Donald .... You can get both Can. and U.S quotes and some other options at http://quotes.quicken.com/ It's pretty good if you don't need
live quotes.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:19
panda @>(@):
GOLD up $2.00 on EBN... bye............


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:18
panda @give.me.a.break.today!>(@give.me.a.break.today!):
More third world gold and crap to go with it.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/03/y0023_z00_31.html

BBL maybe, damn thunderstorms and tornado warnings.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:16
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon):
escher: Things always are darkest before the dawn. And for gold it has gotten pretty dark. But, the law of the market that what goes up must come down has not been repealed. And one of these days.....


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 21:03
panda @>(@):
One uncluttered Thirty Year Bond chart. Boy is it tough to erase all those lines! Same triangle, give or take. This looks like the test here. Wild swing in rates this week. Do rates go lower or higher? Place your bets. Inflation? Deflation?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:56
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

THREETWOFIVE speaks:
http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/goldmine

What a grand and glorious day. Born on the third of July.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:52
Donald donald@uconect.net>(donald@uconect.net):
TANAMI: I have read your post twice and have an opinion of the future that is significantly different than yours. You can contact me directly if you wish.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:51
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
Tanami: Yep i'm an old thinker, pushing 40. I am considering giving up on working in the mining field and retraining in something else. But have you ever held shares in a bank that went insolvent, I did once. As the laws of economics are in the process of being repealed, looks like I should toss my old Economics books in the dumpster, along with my copy of the Intelligent Investor by B. Graham.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:51
panda @>(@):
The TWA-800 answer is in;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/03/twa_y0002_1.html


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:47
panda @EBN>(@EBN):
FWIW -- GOLD UP $1.80 on EBN.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:46
Strad Master Hooorrraaayyyy!>(Hooorrraaayyyy!):
FRONT: Words can't express how wonderful it is to know of your blessed event. Your return to Kitco makes it doubly joyful. E-mail in your box! Welcome back!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:41
Mike Sheller blessed event>(blessed event):
FRONT: Congrats on the grandchild. New beginnings are always beautiful. Blessings.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:40
Mike Sheller phenomenal observation>(phenomenal observation):
AUROPHILE: Astute observation re Human Nature. Phenomena will always abound. Human psychology and reaction to same changes at an excruciatingly slow pace, if noticeably at all.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:38
Below 324 @ Dr. W>(@ Dr. W):
It traded below 324 in 1985. 12 yrs.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:36
George crowjane@scsn.net>(crowjane@scsn.net):
Personally It wouldn't bother me if gold fell to 35.00 an ounce, because then I could afford to stash away about a ton for the reckoning day which is surely coming. The fact is that politicians get elected by buying votes. First they redistribute money to those who support them and when that's not enough they resort to printing more of it.

Eventually they'll print so much that inflation will start to consume peoples life savings. Now most people are not fools. When they see their saving becoming worth less and less due to inflation they'll trade their cash in on something that will hold it's value ( gold, silver, etc ) .

Basically it all boils down to whether you trust politicians or not. I do not.

So let the bottom fall out of the price of gold. I'll still be buying it as fast as I can.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:36
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Aurophile - I definitely have no desire to get into the squared circle
with you again. ( Oh, welcome back, by the way. What a glorious
day to be alive, in the time of threetwofive. )

But human nature is never going to fundamentally change until
humans stop dying. How do you ( or I, or anyone ) recognize
a change in human nature? Human nature is never going to
change as long as humans define human nature. If we left
the definition up to crocodiles, for example, or dolphins, they
might have very different milestones for changes in human
nature than we give ourselves.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:33
panda @>(@):
WW -- Something like 2/3s of all above ground gold is held in private hands. It's something to think about. Point two, EBN gold is up $0.97, not much, but what the hell, it's Asia's and Europe's turn now. Let's see what they do.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:28
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Retired - Your call. I've had a string of lucky guesses in the last few days. I nailed RJ2 immediately upon his return to K-2 ( where he is
now posting under the handle Leaner ) , I deanagrammed my interlocutor, the Belgian thing that we already spoke of, and now
gold at threetwofive. What a glorious day for threetwofive.
Whose side do you want to be on, retired? Lucky and correct
or smart and incorrect?

I don't have to package this thing. It is packaging itself.

-From the Threetwofive Book of Goodness. Part one in a endless
series of installments, largely self-congratulatory, of what some
have termed The greatest single assault ever made on K-1


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:26
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Bill Buckler:

You said that:

The Aussie Reserve Bank entered into forward contracts to sell the Gold over
the past six months

and:

the announcement could have been made at any time.

So, to decide to sell gold and then to sell it is manipulation… Other than
being an unusually large transaction and just before a holiday I would
say they did what they intended to do.. You call it manipulation, I call it
a sale of a wasting asset. What would you have done, put in their shoes,
in desperate need of capitol. Governments are people..



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:26
vronsky OUR MUTUAL LEARNING EXPERIENCE >(OUR MUTUAL LEARNING EXPERIENCE ):
FRONT: Our recent experience brings to mind a noble thought very well-expressed in the following -

A MAN’S IDEAL by edgar a. guest

To live as gently as I can;
To be, no matter where, a man;
To take what comes of good or ill
And cling to faith and honour still;
To do my best and let that stand,
The record of my brain and hand,
And then should failure come to me,
Still work and hope for victory.

To have no secret place wherein
I stoop unseen to shame and sin;
To be the same when I’m alone,
As when my every deed is known.
To live undaunted, unafraid
Of any step that I have made;
To be without pretense or sham,
Exactly what men think I am.

Heart-felt welcome to you and your new Grand-daughter.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:25
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
tanami: a very thoughtful analysis. linear thinking and projection is certainly popular now and may even be the consensus. i received an email message yesterday from the organizer of a section of business cycle/ economic cycle section for a large economic confeence to be held in Canada next year practically begging for papers. give tha everything has gone so well and straight line and clinton has proclaimed the business cycle dead, this is easy to understand. but i think that history shows that cycles do indeed exist and that we may simply be on the flat part of the up wave and nearing the end of it at that. technology and accounting have made great progress, but i see little evidence of a change in human nature.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:21
Donald @Home>(@Home):
BILL BUCKLER: I didn't say that gold markets were impossible to manipulate. I said that it was unlikely that governments would conspire with other countries to manipulate the gold market. Big Difference. I said that countries would act in their own best interest. Australia probably thinks it has done that. I think history will eventually record that as an error, an attempt to postpone, or prevent, the inevitable. History is likely to record that it failed; and that other countries who take the same path will also fail.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:14
tanami @science fiction>(@science fiction):
I was wondering what the age of most most posters to this group
is? ( 50-60? ) . It would be interesting because most of the posts
seem to be reliving the 1970's and 1980's and are blind to
the paradigm of robotic intelligence which we know as internet,
kitco web site, spreadsheets, aeromagnetic surveys, etc.
Silicon stores value more reliably than gold, is more secure,
more transferable, lower storage cost. Silicon also amplifies
the ability of business's to make a profit by orders of magnitude
better financial reporting on one side and on the other, technology
and engineering are creating new products and reducing costs.
Gold has lost its job as a store of value and must survive
om its skills as an industrial metal ( reunited with silver, how
touching! ) which gives no present bottom to the price. ( $200 seems
possible within two years if platinum becomes the metal of
choice for jewellery )
The digital paradigm also has changed consumption patterns for
some reason ( why I do not know, maybe somebody has a suggestion )
so that the paradigm of conspicuous consumption has faded
somewhat, cars kept longer ( maybe they're lasting longer
and more reliable ) , less flashy clothes etc, maybe a response
to todays complexity...overwhelmed with electronic imagery,
medication, just to work a VCR turns peoples heads ...
well, i take something from what is posted in Kitco,
( great charts and comments panda, ) , but feel that the scenario
that seems to be platformed is not in the next ten years except
as a second order effect, that the primary effect is declining
metal and commodity prices, a rising dow but also increasing
volatility. The feds tendency to print money is always a wild card
but is being underwritten by the productivity improvements comming
from the digital paradigm which has at least ten years to run
and may eventually metamorph into tru digital intelligence...
infinity is the bottom line once that happens ( maybe our obsolence
as a species! )

Well.. some thoughts...I've learnt the hard way, its not
just bone that get old, brains get old and need the correcting
lense of introspection to see clearly, young'uns pick up what
is happening so naturally it makes me cry, only vulnerabilty
is lack of experience which levels the field, and I have found the
forum very helpful in respect of that, and would like to return a little,
this is writtten in that spirit and not to much pushing a barrow
I hope.
Again for what its worth, gold may have no bottom, asia is the
wild card, how quickly is it converting to the digital paradigm?
pretty quick, but sometimes the habits of a generation do not
die until the generation dies, but this is a second order effect,
the first order effect is the converstion to the digital
paradigm which seems to transit in 4 month multiples.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:11
Evelyn curious@suspicious>(curious@suspicious):
With so many CB's coming up up and reporting gold sales could it be that banks are bailing out gold dealers? If dealer sold out leased gold and some very valuable customer ( s ) suddenly insist ( s ) on delivery of yellow metal, one cannot simply deplete warehouse stocks without causing an alarm and affecting POG. Our dealer would try to negotiate a deal between two parties. Do CB's have room to maneuver? Not much! Ironically, they rather dispose gold then undermine credibility of their currency in face of gold. What is happening right now could be well run on CB's.

Just a speculation...


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:10
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
NotaGoldbug ( Jul 3, 17:24 ) Gold market impossible to manipulate It has been manipulated since 1962, when the London Gold pool started up.

The Aussie Reserve Bank entered into forward contracts to sell the Gold over the past six months. These contracts apparently come due for delivery starting in July. The deed is done, the price has already been set, the announcement could have been made at any time.

Why choose the last day before a long weekend in the U.S., and then make the amazing statement that they intended to have no effect on the price. No one, not even the Aussie Reserve Bank, is that naive.

Also, Mr Howard, Aussie PM, just got back from a trip to the U.S. a couple of days ago.

Had to take time out from getting charts ready to post a reply to this one.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:10
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKEHARRY: Glad you are not thin skinned! Did you hear the one about the illiterate prostitute? She got a job in a gold warehouse.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:01
Este to RLM>(to RLM):
The majority of so called Experts who regularly comment on various Stock Markets complain about high valuations and are scared out of their wits about the present situation. As long as this will persists the next drop in stock prices will be just another correction and nothing more. I see too much pessimism out there for a collapse in stock prices.
Many Fund Managers are holding large sums of cash that will be deployed in the next correction to buy stocks that appeal to them at lower prices.
Much as we would like, none of them will buy any precious metals with that cash yet.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 20:00
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
Congratulations Front! A golden treasure came to you this day.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:59
retired @ tired of the bragging>(@ tired of the bragging):
Hepcat. As I posted a couple of days ago: Lucky Guess. Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:58
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net):
NotaGoldBug: My interpretation of Cap'Bill Buckler's remarks on manipulation was that he was referring only to the timing of the event. Today on a short market day in the US before a 3 day holiday. The deed was long since done, but someone seems to have carefully chosen the time of the announcement. The someone was probably courted by prescient shorts or perhaps the other way round.
Actually when compared to currency and bond markets, or even equity markets now, the gold market is not really all that large.
I had imagined that Japan was looking for a bonds for gold trade with the IMF. But let's face it, all the CB's are now convinced that treasury bills, notes and bonds are the only way to go as I recently wrote. http://www.gold-eagle.com/frames.html
The volume of bullion trading has been larger than normal for some time now and I would not be surprised to learn of other mini-nation gold sales. The question is whether the Aussies will have panicked others into moving up in the selling queu. Monday am should be most interesting with everyone throwing gold stocks out the window.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:56
mikeharry golden fizzle>(golden fizzle):
Donald, maybe gold becomes so cheap that storing it becomes too costly, as valuable wharehouse space is needed for all the dram and microprocessor chips ( far more scarce and wonderful than gold ) . Maybe they blast all the silly yellow stuff off in a rocket headed for mars where some eons from now little martians try to deal with the stuff.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:51
FRONT To Mr. Vronsky>(To Mr. Vronsky):

Dear Mr. Vronsky:

I have just received your e-mail that you asked to be passed on to me. Please allow me to say that I understand completely your feelings. I also can see your point of the wonderful site you have created. Any disparaging remarks that I may have sent towards the way you do business was obviously completely unfounded, as you have shown me the gentleman that you certainly are. I must add, and I'm sure you'll agree, that everyone has the right to their opinion and only well founded reason and logic, and perhaps depth of soul, should be used to attack anyones arguments. I also have learned from this exercise and will endeavour to achieve the lofty goal of professional discussions. Thank you Mr. Vronsky, you are a gentleman and I understand your feelings.

On a personal note....I would like to take this opportunity to thank the other gentleman who let me know, in various ways, their feelings. They were much appreciated. Also, I wish to announce the birth of our first granddaughter this evening at 6:50 . Hell of a day gentlemen, HELL OF A DAY !!!

TTFN


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:49
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
I forgot to congratulate Stephen Mooney for his brilliant call.
( Oh, I see he's already accorded himself the credit, and referenced
one of his previous thousand posts of lite, filed right before the
Gold Going Up section. Grandma - I think Stephen is one
of those 100 times a day north-pointing birds you were referring to. )
Stephen - Does Spy magazine still have the Logrolling in our
Time section?
Stephen - Want to really test your mettle? Try predicting the bottom
in Flag. You only have thirty numbers to choose from.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:46
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKEHARRY: Oh Yeah? What part of Mars?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:46
WDL @el nino>(@el nino):
I realize that my posting will have nothing directly to do with the price of gold; however, today's Boston Globe had an interesting article on the weather effect called El Nino. The article went on to say that El Nino
( last experienced in its severity in the early 1980's ) will have a dramatic impact on world climates and crops. The article singled out Australia and South America ( coffee ) as the two area to be hardest hit by severe drought conditions, yet parts of North America will receive excessive rainfall. We talked about exogenous events...the CRB and JOC indicies...inflation...gold. Comments, views, or opinions.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:43
RLM Favors>(Favors):
We may not have to wait till August to see Cole's top in stocks or the bottom in gold. Maybe WITHIN the next two weeks.

http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0702.HTM


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:43
misunderstanding I THIRD THE MOTION>(I THIRD THE MOTION):
Mooney: I now understand ( :- ) ) .


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:33
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Donald: You can get quotes For Free for all 4 Canadian exchanges
here http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

The free quotes are in the smaller left frame just below screen level when you get to the first screen. Type the code- no exchange symbol- and leave a space between each one you want upto 10. You will get quotes on upto 4 exchanges if the stock is listed on more than 1.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:25
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
I intend to post here for the forseeable future afterall why not.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:16
mikeharry where's the sold gold?>(where's the sold gold?):
Whoever bought the 167 tonnes is going to have a lot of jewelry to make. Especially if they manufacture the 10k gold-plated shopping mall-type chains out of it, they probably have enough gold chain to reach Mars. Surely no investor bought this gold, as gold is no longer investment grade.




Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:10
telecaster XAU>(XAU):
Organ- re the XAU. The climactic selling of the day in bullion ocurred after the US equities markets closed at 1:00 pm. I expect the stocks to follow the bullion on Monday.

http://167.8.29.19/money/gold.htm


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WW: Govt Takeover? No. They are more worried about the internet and their loss of control through that medium. Borders are going away...Good for us, bad for them. Taxation of transactions is getting more difficult. Good for us, bad for them. They are worried about that and could co-operate in that regard. Look at the difficulty they have in co-operation in establishing the EMU in 13 countries in Europe. Gold still rules. I think today is an example of that. In 1914 the same thing happened. again in 1930, gold goes from weak hands to strong hands. Instead of the Gold Exchange Standard of 1914 and 1930 we have a free market exchange. The pressures that led to the exchange today are EXACTLY the same as through all of recorded history: ie defecit spending. Today a bill got paid in gold by the Australians. Nothing new has been added to 6000 years of history. Who is next in line at the payment window?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:06
vronsky E * PLURIBUS * UNUM>(E * PLURIBUS * UNUM):
HAPPY BIRTHDAY Grand Old Glory
http://www.gold-eagle.com


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 19:01
Mooney @Front,Poorboys,George.+other.stories>(@Front,Poorboys,George.+other.stories):
Poorboys - Today's poem reminds me that this place has often seen some brilliant posts which are not just about gold. Sometimes the variety here makes me think that this site should win some kind of award for its brilliant diversity!
All - The Gloom and Doom etc. ( and the North American July heat wave ) seems lately to have made quite a few people ( for lack of a better word ) - testy - so much so, that some of the greats have even been insensitive ( or overly sensitive as the case may be ) and have thus gotten on each others nerves. Lets all RELAX.
Par example, my good friend Front recently signed off due to some strange misunderstanding with vronsky. Don't know what it was all about, but, Front, my friend, I hereby add my name to the regulars who have requested your return. Your comments have always been appreciated by the many. I recall that you mentioned, in reference to George Cole ( I believe ) that a good economist either predicts a price or a time but not both. Well, just to remind everyone here that, although we are not all always right, George and I had both recently agreed that it appeared that either: 1 ) we were
very close to a bottom ( in time ) and that the lows were in or, 2 ) that a 'spike',
downwards, would soon occur.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:37
Mooney ( moonstep@idirect.com ) :
ALL! Mike's 'GOLD GLOOM' URL that he gave us at 14:50 is a
MUST read for every serious participant at this site. The summary
that is given is a masterpiece of negative sentiment that is the
PERFECT example to give us a contrarian-type signal that the lows
are happening right now. ( In addition to the Captn's signal ) .
Therefore I now believe that either: 1 ) the lows are in place or that,
2 ) we will experience a sharp downward spike which will then
spike back up. Either way it is soon time to cash in the chips and lay them on the table. Louis, Louis, Louiiiiieeee!!!! ( I know, -calm down, Mooney, calm down ) .

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:42
George S. Cole ( gscole@ix.netcom.com ) :
MOONEY: We are on the same wavelength!

As some here have today mentioned, the spike down can continue for a few days, but it will be very testy on many market participants nerves as to just when exactly to jump back aboard. The gold market has really not seen such a sharp downward movement for quite some time so the volatility we will now witness should be very interesting indeed. As I now see it, if the market does not spike back upwards immediately after finishing its sharp down move, then the Gold market may consolidate for a brief time period and may actually spike downwards again, which event should prove to be the final blow-off. If, however, the price spikes back upwards sometime next week then the bull has started.

Some others of us have remarked over the last 8-10 months about just how ordered ( unusually so ) this market decline has been ( up until this last two weeks ) . The present sharp decline may have the unexpected effect of serving to shake the Gold market ( in other words - the major participants ) up enough to restore it to a 'free' market ( supply-demand ) once more. Time will tell.
Front, Aurophile, Oldman, and all other delinquents - Please return! Its starting to get interesting once more!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:56
pyramid seattle>(seattle):
test


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:55
Speed @walking wounded>(@walking wounded):
WW: Breathe! remember to breathe. I am avid, just tired. I didn't sell! I can't believe I haven't chickened out by now.

Canadian maple leafs - silver have a face value of $5. How low does silver have to go before the maples become currency again? I think only another buck U.S. or buck thirty Canadian. Gold maples have a face value of $50. I found the floor! Gold can only go down another $275!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:50
RT @Organ>(@Organ):
ORGAN: No one is thrashing John Hepcat for the call he made. It's the manner in which he vocalizes his bearishness that rubs most of us the wrong way. We would welcome his commentary with open arms if it was posted in a thoughtful professional manner like most of the other contributors to this fine forum do.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:49
WW @GOVT TAKEOVER OF GOLD INDUSTRY BEFORE CRISIS>(@GOVT TAKEOVER OF GOLD INDUSTRY BEFORE CRISIS):
Many on this sight espouse the view that govts hate gold because they cant control it. THOUGHT Could present CB /GOVT/WALL ST assault on gold to be to distress the industry so as to give the govt EFFECTICE control over all future gold supply so that it become a controlled currency. The universal deprecation of gold ( except for Hashi ) and timely sale announcements at key support levels seem perfect if one was contemplating such a strategy. Many cos will be in trouble if price declines below 300 and stays there for any time. Perfect time for bailout for pennies and control of this natural resource to the govt or allied institution. Alas THE INDEPENDENT GOLD YARDSTICK WILL BE GONE!! Comments..


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:44
George Cole stock blowoff.>(stock blowoff.):
ESTE: This stock blowoff will continue until August and Dow 8500. After that watch out. When the end comes it will be swift and dramtic. Do you really thing all the baby boomers and newly minted financial geniuses will be able to get out in time?

WW: If the final demise of the the stock bull still cannot ignite gold, then I will join the ranks of the bears and sell my modest gold mutual fund holdings. That is the only scenario which could turn me long-term bearish down here.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:43
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Changing the subject. Japan household spending drops.

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:41
NotaGodbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
WW.. Thank you for your comment.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:32
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SELBY: Thank you for the Toronto close post. A real public service. Is Vancouver still trading and can you get some or tell us how to do it?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:28
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Selby - I know how hesitant you are to acknowledge the queries of
a madman, but I wanted to ask you if you would please continue
to post here when I'm gone. I fear threetwofive's days are
numbered, and you have also the gift of true knowledge as threetwofive
did. In no way would I want your views to have the stigma of being
endorsed by threetwofive, however, or carrying the imprimatur
of threetwofive, so I could understand if you demure.

P.S. Are you still holding?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:26
Organ @ Hepcat ...>(@ Hepcat ...):
The thrashing of John Hepcat is uncalled for. He made a great call on gold today. I like to think of this site as a collection of independent thinkers where the herd instinct is kept at bay.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:26
WW @New England>(@New England):
I believe this bottom in the metals will be secular and give rise to great bull conversely a great bear for financials. NOTAGOLDBUG makes a good point can there really be any believers at the bottom of a secular BEAR just as all are believers at the top of the secular bull. We are getting there but we are not there yet. Even RJ a convinced gold bear said he would cover his short today/ such belief in a rally ( however short term ) by a bear is not constructive. No disrespect to GSC ( I include myself here ) but we must really reach the point of TRULY questioning our position before a true secular bottom. Speed holding up the white flag is encouraging but he is not as avid as others on this site. If it were not this way then becoming rich would be easy. It is not either easy in work or especially in speculation to become rich. Some will be on board for the bull but will their level of experience make them sell at the slightest sign of weakness ie the pavlov's dog dont punish me again. I have experienced this and unfortunately will probably do so again. I am beginning to worry about my gold stks going bankrupt and the hopelessnees of the situation has made me emotinally entertain selling ( the pain is tremendous especially with raging stk mkt ) /this is at least short term bullish. What would it take for Steve and CSG to question their positions and if they did where would the rest of of us be on the continuum. And then again maybe they dont have to. There were some bulls at previous stk mkt bottoms. But then with gold the whole world seems against it or doesnt know how to deal with money a govt cant control/thus my thesis is it is a race between the inevitalble crisis and govt ability to kill the price to a degree that they can gain control of the industry and make gold the govts property by basically bankrupting the industry and allow for govt takeover at pennies on the dollar...Is this crazy given whats happening. Remember Kaplans article about commercials being long and specs being short means the price should rise. Wrong when the govt thru or as Merrill is a spec shorting the hell out of the mkt no matter what the commercials do. If history is a guide metals should be rallying but they are not/ maybe things are different/who can stop the massive selling in the paper mkt with the INTENT to drive the price down..Comments.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:21
Organ @ the Toronto Homestead>(@ the Toronto Homestead):
Back in Canada to visit the parental units, and what do I see? Gold down, techs up. At least the XAU didn't tank, a good sign. In the Wall St. Journal today there was an article on the confusion that is felt among economists regarding the economic picture, i.e. retail sales down, factory orders down, autos down, but new homes up bigtime. However, if these guys read S Puetz's analysis all would be clear to them. Retail sales are in a DEFLATION because plastic is maxed out for many people, and deliquencies are up. Auto sales are in a DEFLATION because of the same reason -- the credit is drying up from the banks. The only sectors that are inflating are real estate and the financial markets -- no surprise there, banks feel that the stock and real estate markets are good bets so they will accept these as collateral. It shouldn't be long before the desiccation in retail and auto credit spills over into the real estate and stock markets, triggering a substantial decline.

Until then, I will continue to get pounded shorting the techs and going long on the XAU. So much for fundamental analysis ...

- The Orgster


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:19
Este @ long week end>(@ long week end):

Glenn, you recently said that silver could drop in tandem with gold to a price of $4.40. Very timely call! I wish you posted more frequently.

George S. Cole, your comments on the direction of gold have been precious to me. However, as you might know, I do not share your view of an imminent demise of the bulls in Wall Street. There will be an end eventually, but for now, if you look at the level of short term money invested by Stock Mutual Funds, you will have to admit that it is high and reflects a more rational view of the market. Stocks have been and still are good to my portfolio and if I had been out of them for the past ten years I would now be in a much different financial situation.

Hepcat, your call on the price of gold was right on the mark.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:17
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Toronto close: ABX 29.30; ECO 7.10; PDG 21.70


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:08
Donald @Home>(@Home):
PUETZ: I have always been with you on the deflationary argument...but I expected, still expect?, a runup on gold to $450-500 based upon a false inflationary scare scenario. Then a drop to lower levels. Recall my previous comments about the Monetary Base etc.

WW: I reject the conspiracy theory of governments. We are still a tribal world. It is every country acting in its own interest. I could accept a conspiracy theory among the major world gold producing corporations though.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:04
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Prognosticator - You got me. I was lying about $325.

Ha-ha-ha

Ha-ha

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 18:01
Prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves):
When I was actively trading real estate and trust deeds ( mortages in most states ) I liked to negotiate directly with the person on the other side of the deal. Body language, facial expressions, and eye movement many times spoke more loudly than the person's words. It is well established that most people when they are lying, do not look into the eyes of the person to whom they are lying. Even such an expert as Bill Clinton will not be able to look directly into the camera when telling one, unless it is in a rehearsed speech. Not being able to watch pussycat John, I am forced to look at his words and guess at what is behind them.
My analysis is that he is a manic-depressive with multiple personalities, all inadequate, but with delusions of grandeur. In real life, he is likely a Caspermilktoast, when driving a car he will be very aggressive, giving other drivers the one finger salute when offended, which will be often. Given time he may grow up, but it is doubtful.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:55
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
DEFLATIONARY takes hold: Today, the CRB Commodity Index broke down to make a new 2-year low. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.8% to 5.0%. In Canada, bankruptcies were reported to up 19% from a year ago.

Knight-Ridder reported: The June jobs report suggests the demand for labor is weakening somewhat, and weakens the case for a sharp rebound in economic activity in the third quarter. Indeed, the weaker-than-expected data reinforces the weak recent economic tone set by: 1 ) 3 consecutive monthly declines in retail sales, 2 ) a possible drop in June unit auto sales below the bottom of a 3-year-old sideways range, 3 ) preliminary evidence that the retail weakness is slowing the manufacturing sector, and 4 ) tentative indications inventories may be growing at a faster than desired pace.

It looks like gold has been caught in, and has been subjected to the emerging deflationary environment. However, in the long-run, the gold price will benefit from deflation -- as all types of financial paper will collapse in value from credit difficulties. Gold and silver are the only money alternatives to these credit instruments.

A violent deflation and economic depression have now begun. It looks like, along with it, it's providing bargain-basement precious metal prices. A tremendous stock market crash awaits equities -- caught in grossly over-valued territory in a collapsing economic environment.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:54
WW @New England>(@New England):
So we are looking at probably 280 where the industry shuts down. Or is this what the authorities want so they can control production and inventory by bankrupting the private sector and since they know gold is money paying off shareholders at pennies on the dollar to takeover the mines OR the REAL MINT. Thoughts.. This selling seems frantic and deliberate and I cant help but think it isnt a way to attempt to gain control of the money producing industry when THEY know they are way out on a limb with respect to paper obligations!...Thoughts..


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:53
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
Many of the holders of bullion I consider weak longs
in this market.. They are scared to death that gold will
go lower and want their money out. Now! This is
extremely typical of investors holding anything that
is losing value week by week.. Makes sense to me..
Heck, if I owned gold, that has been declining in
value for 15 years I probably would have gotten our
moons ago.

When I consider a bottoming stock I usually look to see
if there has been a complete turnover of the float at or
near the current price.. If not, I know there are many who
have ridden this thing down and are getting very nervous.
This is why George S. Cole constantly is looking for a
high, and I mean high, volume day. At some point there
are more strong longs in at the current price than weak
longs hanging on for dear life..

I don’t know if anyone can calculate this but I believe there
are more long term weak longs ( CB’s or otherwise ) still
clinging to their precious gold.. I’m sure they are nervous
as ever and not just a bit disgusted with the current trend..

This always happens, always will, in a super depressed market..
Forget manipulation.. The biggest sellers will do so at the end
and they will signal the bottom..

The bottom is the hardest to detect.. It will seem like there
is no demand, only sellers. Were not there yet… To many
respected kitco participants trying to predict where it will
stop and why.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:43
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Mike Sheller Thank You Towards the end of July I try to grasp the inevitable challenge of gold forgotten.Astrologers touché


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:41
Donald @Home>(@Home):
If no can shoot a hole in my post of 13:37 I am sticking with it.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:40
Mike Sheller @www.ww.com>(@www.ww.com):
WW: I believe earlier in the day you mused about dreaming up a lawsuit to keep occupied. I meant to answer, but somehow life got in the way. Hows about a class action suit by goldbugs in the name of all the citizens what had their gold stole by the guvmint' in '34 If every goldbug chipped in $100 bucks, or maybe an ounce of gold in dollars, perhaps you'd handle the case? Think of the headlines. Think of the boost for gold and the black eye to government arbitrary despotism. While I think I am not without a sense of humor, I am truly serious about this. We could do a fund-raising campaign, create a non-profit org, & give em' a run. What say? You'd even be our token liberal! What diversity! I'll write your speeches, I'll do your promotion. I'll stand shoulder to shoulder with you, and I know many Kitcoites will too. It's the FOURTH tommorrow, man. Think about it. Seriously. We need you. Let's GET REAL...Let's GET BACK OUR GOLD!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:30
Donald @Home>(@Home):
WW: Mining costs. Two I own are Glamis @ 265 per and Bema @ 230 per, both US$. That is not typical, most are higher.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:29
Mike Sheller reverential>(reverential):
POORBOYS: That was beautiful. Thank you. I sat here reading it twice. I am only flattered and humbled that you included my name in such an uplifting post.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:25
GFD Thoughts on the Wall - looking down>(Thoughts on the Wall - looking down):
Ted Butler: I disagree that it is too soon to see loan defaults. Paper gold is cheap and very available. But I wonder if a couple hundred tons on actual material might be a bit hard to get - with retail deliveries taking several weeks for small purchases ( 10's of ounces ) . The key here is that a hidden default is the transformation of a pile of metal into a pile of paper.

These defaults may have been going on for some time. Who will ever know when they started

bw: I don't think that this story is necessarily between the big guys and the little guys. I suspect it has more to do with asian big guys declaring independence from western big guys. Confiscation of the little guys gold will be an admission of failure to manage the paper markets and to admit that gold has intrinsic value - something done as a last resort only and only by the next administration.

A resurrection of gold as the primary reserve currency would result in a very dramatic realignment of economic power - with surprising winners and loosers.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:24
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
I was amazed at Bill Bucklers comment:

Somebody wanted a much lower gold price - they got it!

I thought he, of all people, had a handle on the gold market. Understanding
that it is one of the few that is impossible to manipulate.. Being traded
globally, why would someone try to manipulate gold when other investments
are so much easier and thinly traded. Gold is not being pushed lower by
someone.. It is going lower because of supply/demand.

Simple!!

Does anyone here, beside myself, get this?





Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:19
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Grandma - What a great and glorious day for threetwofive.
The chicken thing doesn't apply. If there was one chicken
in the henhouse that persistently and consistently pointed
north when all the other chickens were pecking at it and
trolling for foxes to kill the chicken or at least get it to
turn around in circles like they all did, I would have to
say, That is one affected chicken. Then, probably,
it would go into the fryer with all the other chickens, but
danged if it wouldn't taste a lot better than the rest and
maybe E.B. White would commemorative that particular
chicken ( as you are going to commemorate me on this
site for a very long time if you know what's good for you,
yet already the carping has started and this doesn't make
threetwofive very happy, you do want threetwofive to be
happy, don't you? ) and the last sentence would say, Charlotte was both


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:12
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Grandma: gracious does not apply to your post. The man called the price here and on a couple of other sites frequently during the last several months. Who is the bird brain then? No quotations today? Nuff said.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:08
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Mike Sheller&Vronsky -I saw a star slide from the sky Blinding the North as it went by Too burning and too bright to hold Too lovely to be bought or sold Good only to make wishes on And then forever to be
gone. Oh,I have slipped the surly bonds of earth and danced the skies on laughter-silverd wings; Sunword I've climbed and joined the tumbling mirth of sun-split clouds - and done a hundred things you have not dreamed of - wheeled and soared and swung high in the sunlight silence; hovering there. I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung my eager craft through footless halls of air. Up, up the long delirious burning blue I've topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace where never lark, or even eagle ever flew - and, while with silent lifting mind I've trod the high untrespassed sanctity of space, put out my hand and touched the Face of God. John Gillespie Magee, Jr.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:06
George Cole mine closures>(mine closures):
WW: I don't have specific figures, but the Australian and South African mines generally are higher cost than the North American producers. I suspect prices already are too low for many of these high cost miners. But prices will have to stay down here for awhile before they begin to shut down.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 17:00
Donald @Home>(@Home):
No one seems to have noticed how well silver did by comparison, Central Fund of Canada ( 75% Silver ) is up one-sixteenth on the day. Let all the CB's sell. We will hold all the gold and issue our own coins like the private mints of the California Gold Rush days. Do we have a candidate for a coin portrait?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:58
WW @New England>(@New England):
At what level and for how long does it have to stay there before mines start to shut down and effect supply. When and which miners can hold out for how long and at what lower price.

Significantly for miners what PRICE IS TOO LOW?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:57
Grandma Still_working_the_farm>(Still_working_the_farm):
Sonny, anyone can be lucky once. When your cousin Jim was a math teacher, he always said, Aunt Sadie, I make 'em show me how they did it. You got a yard full of chickens, and every one points exactly due north a hundred times a day, but dang if I'd use any of 'em as a compass. Enough said.

The more-gracious tone of your last post noted and appreciated, John.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:57
Pussy Galore (Broker) Hepcat>(Hepcat):

Hepcat: We have an opening at our house for a trained metals analyst. He must also be a real stud and willing to make our brokeress's willing and happy to pass a usually boring day. Don't worry about any outside threats as the Alley Cat Mob provides for our safety.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:48
George s. Cole musings>(musings):
Ted Butler: You have added greatly to my knowledge of dynamics of the gold leasing market. Thanks much!

Captain Bill: I doubt if that someone was anybody in the Australian government or Reserve Bank. Perhaps Bob Rubin or Alan Greenspan? Could this be their way ( together with leaving rates unchanged ) of telling Hashimoto to shove it.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:38
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Fundy - Thanks. You will be rewarded greatly in this life and the next.

Ted Butler - Thank you as well. This followed on these heels of a post that
asked if I would kindly remind people if threetwofive wasn't attained, so take
it for what it's worth. It always provokes much merriment on this site to parrot what everyone else is saying ( Gold is going up ) and ask to be corrected if
this is not the case. I did it once before with GSC ( see the broke to lead post on SI ) . Of course, whether you believe I'm doing this on purpose or not
depends on you. Guess you'll have three days to look up at the gold quote box
and see if I should be trusted.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:37
bw Re: GFD, 13:08, the big flush>(Re: GFD, 13:08, the big flush):
GFD: I believe you have it nailed. Very large players world-wide in collusion with much of the political structure are accumulating gold in its various forms. I had assumed they were mainly interested in the stocks and were selling the bullion to force the whole complex down. Now I am not so sure. Could our leaders ( klinton has been accumulating gold for quite some time ) be so cynical as to attempt to force the small holder of a few krands to sell! Pushing the price below 300 should induce more than a little panic in the little guy.

What makes this so rotten is they are planning on gold confiscation ( after the bubble bursts ) while they sell the peoples gold to force the small holder to exchange worth for soon to be worthless paper. All this so the super rich may exchange paper for worth. After this farce is over should they dare pass gold confiscation laws, I would hope their harvest would be derisive laughter and not a little warm spit.

As for me if you cannot beat em join em. I have been buying for cash, krands. The ones I got today were minted in 1976. Incidently when I went to the bank to pick up the paper to exchange for worth, the clerk had trouble counting the hundreds. Seems they were stuck together. She thought they must be using cheaper ink or something. I remarked perhaps they were dipped suspected iranian 100s. I think one of the final tests for suspected iranian 100s involves some sort of bath.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:26
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
George Cole ( Jul 3 12:23 ) I just heard about all the excitement,
it's 6 AM here in Oz. What an amazing contatenation of events!

Clinton threatens economic war against Japan if they dont
fix their trade surplus

Hashimoto threatens to sell Treasuries and buy Gold

Greenspan and Co leave rates unchanged

Aussie Reserve Bank announces 167 Ton Gold sale

By my initial calculations, I reckon that the $US Gold slide
down to $325.20 puts the $A Gold price around $A 433. Thats
right on a multi year low.

What's interesting about the RBA ( Oz Reserve Bank ) announcement
is not so much the fact as the timing. They knew fully the effect
it would have, especially with the amount of hedge fund shorting
of Gold having soared recently and especially with the U.S. being
on a short trading day before a long weekend.

Somebody wanted a much lower gold price - they got it!

I am going to have a busy morning updating charts/commentary at
my website. Right now, I'm off to have a good look around the net
to gather as many facts as possible.

The last $US Gold close I have below $US 325.20 was Dec. 19, 1985 ( $US 324 )
Gold traded below $US 300 for 16 Days in 1985 ( Feb 21 - March 15 )
and ONE DAY in 1982 ( June 21.

Hope to have all charts/commentary up by about 9 PM ( US EST ) .
at http://www.the-privateer.com. The updated
$A gold chart should be something to see.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:25
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Wall Street Journal: LOL. A little humor in the foxhole. Well done.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:24
ted butler GSC,GFD,Hepcat>(GSC,GFD,Hepcat):
George,

Re your question on limits to short selling in gold ( if any ) . In my mind there are two types of gold short sales -paper and actual. We only get hard statistics on the paper variety done here in the states via the COT. That report due out monday, should show record short sales by spec technical funds as of close of biz 7/1 for gold and silver. The fact that we're talking about record positions ( or close to it ) means it's the biggest short position they've ever had in the past ( which is some guide to what might be a full position ) I don't think it reasonable to assume they would double or triple their position from here. They will have to cover these positions, since there is no possibility they will deliver. In Feb, the covering resulted in a $25-30 rally. While every short in gold has an open profit currently, it will not be realized until the position is bought back and closed out. If the longs ( AIG, Goldman Sachs, etc ) cave in and allow the shorts to buy back at current or lower prices by selling to them their long positions at a substantial loss, it will be the first time ever.
These are the paper shorts. The physical shorts, resulting from the leasing by central banks are in addition to the paper variety, although may be done by the same parties.Here, they are limited by the amount the CBs have to loan, which is an unknowable amount. But what we do know is that actual metal floods the market as a result of these short sales and that they have been cumulative. That is, since these loans are never paid back ( it's too easy to roll and never repay ) this catagory of short only grows ( my estimate is 100-150 million oz gold outstanding, including forward sales ) I don't know if rising lease rates recently reflect borrowing demand or Cbs pulling back, although my guess is short sale borrowing demand - as I think the day the CBs pull back we are looking at rates currently seen in Pa and Pt. with corresponding price action.

GFD - interesting thought on Aussie sale being bad lease being disguised. It's just a guess but I don't think so yet, as that would credit the CBs with more intelligence than deserved and a default in a falling market overlooks the gold could be bought cheaper than it was loaned out. I do think you'll see exactly this event in a rapidly rising market when it's obvious the gold is gone and the best they'll get back is cash if they're lucky and they won't have to admit to being idiots.

Hepcat - good call. You also asked to be reminded about your prediction of up days yesterday and today.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
D.A. @13:14: Give it up as hopeless. You'll never unload that worthless ounce. It's but a relic of the past. ...... As an alternate; I do collect odd tokens of bygone eras and could be induced to take it off your hands as sort of a souvenoir. Just a thought. ....... ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:06
oldhand @guessing>(@guessing):
WW: Interesting question. My guess would be chart manipulation with not having to expend too much ammunition. Last minute selling on a holiday weekend would generate an exagerrated move due to thin market conditions. Anyone have any volume data?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 16:03
WW @New England>(@New England):
Did the annoucement of Aussie gold sales come before 11Am EST when gold was up or during the period from 11:30-1:10 when gold weakened. Also did they dump their gold during the last ten minutes of trading today and previous days to ensure they got the lowest price. Did thay also announce silver sales


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:56
DUH theloseris......>(theloseris......):
Wanna bet? John the Repuke had as many gold contracts, as he has class. NONE, which makes him the biggest loser of ALL.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:55
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Regrettably: Give it a break. John Dragoo Hepcat Repack Zoinks has just demonstrated the most amazing feat since K-1 first started. He has accurately predicted the bullion price months in advance. As of today he did it within a dollar and clearly is the best predictor ( based only on performance not rationale ) that this site has seen so far.
He did so in a manner that offended something between most and all posters and in the face of continual criticism. Unlike others who post here daily and have the aura of sages--he was right. Good time to reflect on who knows what and more importantly whether you know useful information when you see it.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:48
WW @New England>(@New England):
Wrapped everything up early today. Anybody....whats with the last minute crashes in gold during the last week. Is this a sign of fear and capitulation or manipulation or a cocktail of both. Today and yesterday gold finishes dead low on last minute selling and dow finishes on high with last minute buying. I guess what I am asking is what is the significance of this last minute stuff? Comments please..


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:43
Bob @..Canadian CB was more discreet over a longer period>(@..Canadian CB was more discreet over a longer period):
GSC- check the records and you should discover that although the CDN CB was a seller of gold over the past 10 yrs. they did not achieve the level of notority of the Auzzie CB in this regard.

John/Hepcat: Glory is fleeting - everyone deserves a brief applause and I applaud you for your 3-2-5 chant but, alas, it doesn't surprise anyone who has watched gold tanking over the past year. To really be a hero on this thread you will need to call the turn-around ( if any ) .

3-2-0 more likely than 3-3-0 ? According to the trend - probably.

Cheers


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:42
Regrettably anonymous People_can_change>(People_can_change):
John, you can change. Change is possible. Noone is condemned to stay the way they are, including you. And after you've changed, lost the inner hurt, perhaps bitterness, maybe a poor self-image, whatever it is that drives such ugly, petty, vindictive, mean-spiritedness, I'll welcome you back to this forum. That's not sour grapes. That's the way we all felt about you _before_ today. But remember this - we can be whatever we choose to be. There's no condemnation here, honestly. Just a recommendation. Choose to overcome the hurt and become the man you can be proud to be. In the meantime, please go away. You've got work to do.

If you cannot do that, at least give us a few hours a day when you agree not to post, so that the rest of us can enjoy ourselves in peace. Preferably daylight or evening hours. Is that too much to ask?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:32
oldhand @bungee jump>(@bungee jump):

To All:

Not to worry. The long awaited washout has finally arrived. Look for more blood on Monday and the BIG reversal next Tuesday.

Any players who are short are likely to be ready to cash in their chips about now. Why risk losing their big gains? In fact, they will probably now go long for another killing on the reversal.

How much more can they expect after taking out the $325 stops?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:31
OBSERVER GOLD RALLY>(GOLD RALLY):
Look for a powerful rally to begin soon after the higher-cost mines start closing.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:29
Mike Sheller absolutely>(absolutely):
FUNDY: I ansolutely have been buying gold bullion during this period of weakness. I was waiting for it. Another $10 or $20 down makes little difference if one's plan is to accumulate on weakness for the next year. No problem. I certainly wouldn't want to be long futures this market. And I'm not. But I thank you for considering the wife & kid. I assure you my growing gold position will not in any way interfere with the stability of their futures.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:29
Jack Fundy>(Fundy):


Fundy; they are trying to give gold the aura of a
commodity. I'll bet if you take the average price of
gold during the 850+ spike year and remove that spike and prices one month eitherside of that spike; you will find
that gold, from real highs to real lows, has performed no better or worst than the base metals. On the other hand
the price of finished products -that use the base metals- over that period have increased well out of proportion to them. It's crazy.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:26
Jack Rich in Natural Resources>(Rich in Natural Resources):

So now Austrialia has only 80 gold tonne in official reserves.

Austrailia has countless more tonnes in the ground; sought of like Canada.

This sale of 167 tonne ( 5.4 million ounces ) does little as far as making up for the increase gold sales ( so far ) for 1997 as reported by the WGC.

What happens if/when Austrialia and Canada decide to increase the gold portion of their reserves?

Or are the financial markets so exuberant, that common sense has ceased? The answer could be the level of the DOW when AG made his famous Irrational Exuberance comment and what it is today.

We are fighting a tough group. Bankers, brokers, governments that are controlled by patsies, who want to make everything look rosy and a public that hinges on their every word.

Fundy; they are trying to give gold the aura of a commodity. I'll bet if you take the average price of gold during the 850+ spike year and remove that spike and prices one month eitherside of that spike; you will find that gold, from real highs to real lows, has performed no better or worst than the base metals. On the other hand the price of finished products -that use the base metals- over that period have increased well out of proortion to them. It's crazy.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 15:21
Leaner blessjohn@onbothkitcothreads>(blessjohn@onbothkitcothreads):
May those that love us, love us!

And those that don't love us, may God turn their hearts.

And if God does'nt turn their hearts, may he turn their
ANKLES.

So that we may know them by their LIMPING!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:58
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

I having a little trouble hearing you all here.
Go ahead, say it:

I broke the nest egg.
I broke the nest egg.
I broke the nest egg.

Here, let me help you get started:

I broke the nest egg.
I broke the nest egg.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:53
Speed @mouth agape>(@mouth agape):
Schippi: Look again. FSAGX -.20 @ 20.15 Dropped .23 in last hour.
Everybody has 3 days to think about it. I'm looking for a white flag.

RJ: You were right. Just in case no one else says so. Now, where do I go from here to make money? ( after joining goldbugs anonymous ) : )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:48
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

D.A. - Egads. You are one of the few people at this site that is
even remotely civil. I'm going to have to confront this monotonous
rabble by myself?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:48
George S. Cole Fidelity>(Fidelity):
SCHIPPI: The U.S. markets closed today at 1:00 P.M; the Fidelity quotes reflect prices as of that time. The big drop in bullion came a bit after 1:00 PM as did downward pressure on the Canadian golds. So I don't think the closing Fidelity quotes accurately reflect the current situation.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:46
nailz AUSSIE MINES>(AUSSIE MINES):
Shouldn't this just about take spot price down to production costs for some the Aussies ? Speaking of spot prices, the forward sales are done at prices higher than current spot. I saw an article that was written like gold was sold years ahead at current spot prices.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:45
D.A. market.closing>(market.closing):
John:

I'm packing up my bags and heading for a vacation so I must sadly withdraw my offer. Who knows, when I get back maybe we will be doing 275 before 250. Sooner or later I'm going to hook ya! Until then, watch out fer them microbes.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:44
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

GSC - If you're expecting an answer, you gots another thing comin.
I tend to ascribe to the philosophy that silence is the perfect expression of scorn


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:43
Selby Stocks and Bullion>(Stocks and Bullion):
George Cole: Don't forget the US buyers are practically out of the market this afternoon and their effect or lack of one on the buying and selling of stocks should not be overlooked.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:41
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
FSAGX and FDPMX are both UP! Does this tell us that the current SLAM down in gold, may be a FAKEOUT?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:39
Wall_Street_Journal Gold_plummets::chat_line_comment_blamed>(Gold_plummets::chat_line_comment_blamed):
New York, July 3 - Gold prices took one of the largest one-day drops in recent years today, over $7/oz., in response to a comment posted on the Kitco Gold Discussion on the Internet by little-known commentator 2weeks. According to 2weeks, there is a serious chance that gold has permanently lost its role as a store of value, reducing its worth ultimately to that derived from practical applications in such industries as electronics.

In a telephone interview, 2weeks described his comments as purely speculative and not original and said that he did not expect they would provoke such a tumble. In fact, he alleged, he had just predicted that spot prices would rise today and through next week. Insiders suspect 2weeks lost his butt in today's action.

Appearing lighthearted and almost giddy over today's market surprises, 2weeks laughed, It sure beats boredom. And hey, it's just earthly wealth - I'm sure I'll be a better man for it.

The little voice that rocked the market would not make any predictions about what to expect next week, saying I've caused enough trouble already. But I'm sure I'll wake up Monday and have something to say.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:36
Este to Bart>(to Bart):
Your 24 hour spot gold chart cannot be read today.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:35
panda @how.far.will.it.go?>(@how.far.will.it.go?):
Remember, overseas markets are open tomorrow.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:34
6pak try again @ sorry>(try again @ sorry):
http://canoe.quote.com/fq/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:34
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Echo Bay C$ 7.65 down 35 cents.
PDG 21.70 down about 90 cents.

Consolidated Hepcat up unbelievably


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:34
George Cole stocks and bullion>(stocks and bullion):
The ability ( so far ) of the gold stocks to hold up well in the face of collapsing bullion prices strongly suggest this is the final selling climax. If gold stock investors thought that bullion was going down for the count, the stocks would be plunging as well.

Australia isn't the first gold producer to dump much of its gold reserves. Aren't they following in Canada's footsteps?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:34
Bob A telecaster>(telecaster):
Thanks, I forgot about that


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:24
telecaster XAU>(XAU):
GVC- Maybe gold stocks will lead on the way up, but they have been lagging all the way down.

Bob A.- US equities markets closed at 1:00 pm Eastern today for the holiday.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:22
6pak maybe @ some help, gold>(maybe @ some help, gold):
http://canoe.quote.com/fg/canoe/industrygroup?group=tse_gold


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:22
nailz HOW RIGHT YOU ARE....>(HOW RIGHT YOU ARE....):
GFD........How right you are !!!!!! The worst part about all the CB selling is that many are setting themselves up for a world-wide financial crisis...When the paper crashes ( History says when, not if ) , where will the strength of these banks be ? I hope the buyer of the AUSSIE gold was the US FED, but I would bet it was an Asian govt. DOES ANYONE KNOW WHO THE BUYER IS ?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:22
George Cole $325>($325):
Bob A: Thanks for the stock info and the Eliot Janeway quote. He really knew how the get to the nitty gritty as they used to say in 1960s.

John: Congratulations on the accuracy of your prediction!. Perhaps you could enlighten us on how you came up with it. Did you have advance info on what the Australians were doing. Are you privy to the secret gold price objectives of government agencies and/or powerful financial institutions.? Are you a great chartist? A lucky guess? Or was this the price objective of an analyst you respect?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:19
panda @>(@):
Selby -- Placer in the US is PDG


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:17
Lurker 777 @ how low can we go!>(@ how low can we go!):

DR. W The last time Gold traded this low was in 1985 when gold hit $284.25 oz.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:16
GVC @UGLY(unless your a hepcat)>(@UGLY(unless your a hepcat)):
Here is the UGLY picture. View it at your own risk:




Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:16
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Barrick C$ 29.60 down about 80 cents. TVX C$7.20 down about 20 cents. Whats the code for Placer?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:10
Bob A all>(all):
If I owned a lot of gold I'd be kicking myself for not having sold it. If I sold it at higher levels I'd be looking to buy it back.
If I was short it I would be looking to cover.
I liked it at 350 and really like it now. IMHO it has more and more potential to explode if we have any type of crises, particularly a dollar crisis. I think J. Dines is looking for a dollar crises. As E. Janeway said, gold goes the opposite to the currency in power. The gold stocks havn't crashed so far today.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:09
D.A. there.now.that.was.easy>(there.now.that.was.easy):
John:

Brilliant, daring, prophetic!!!!!

However for your victory to be complete you still must up with a way to liberate just a single ounce of gold from moi. How bout this one, one ounce says Monday's London PM fix is greater than 3..2..5.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:06
George Cole Canadian Markets>(Canadian Markets):
GVC: Perhaps the Canadian markets are still open. If so can any of our Canadian friends tell us how the gold stocks are doing?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:03
Bob @...Is Gold Cartel operating above the law ?>(@...Is Gold Cartel operating above the law ?):
Does anyone know if the CB Gold Cartel are above SEC laws ? I appreciate that foreign CBs are quasi-govt institutions but if they are colluding to let each other dump gold would they not be considered to be manipulating the market.

The OPEC Cartel is a producer group esconed behind US benign neglect. The CB gold Cartel represents a price-fixing group that operates by managing market demand and supply through gold lease rates and gold bullion sales, respectively.

The question remains: Do minority investors in bullion have recourse as a class action against the Gold Cartel for the market manipulation and resultant evaporation of golds market value ?

Anyone care to offer an opinion ?

P.S. I am somewhat relieved to learn that most of the justification for golds recent bearish price decline can be blamed specifically on the Austrialian CB's significant gold sales program over the last six months - which was heretofore not offically disclosed ( to my knowledge ) . It was also recently disclosed that Auzzie gold miners have been heavy users of forward sales programs - they have the highest average industry costs and the A$ and gold lease rates dynamics have combined to provide a window of opportunity for these ( desparate ) people.

Interesting times...

Cheers.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:03
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Mike Sheller: If you think a couple of silver spikes especially the Hunt one make gold necessay today then go buy all you want its getting real cheap. Actually check Rhodium. It has been to $7000 in the last 6 years and is now only about $200--that's a buy eh? If you think you can predict gold's price with waves go ahead. Its a very good way to explain what happpened with mathematical precision but please but something away for the wife and kids if you plan to predict the future.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:02
Dr. W query>(query):
Today's low is a new 10+ year low. Does anyone know more precisly when gold last traded below 324?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 14:01
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Please, everyone, now that we have arrived, do not be afraid to
liberally sprinkle the closing price ( Comex August delivery is fine )
in amongst your nuggets of information.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:59
GVC @where or where >(@where or where ):
Since most of the action was after the stox close, what is the opinion on what gold stocks do Monday morning? Gap lower then reverse? Gap lower and keep going south? If gold stocks lead the bullion, why isn't the XAU in the 80's now?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:54
George Cole market discipline>(market discipline):
Today's big break may be the market's way of discouraging additional CB selling. If they want to get rid of it, they are going to have to give it away.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:54
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

YYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Get on your knees, Kitcotexans, and worship the god of threetwofive.
You had better be praying awfully hard tonight for forgiveness,
or this is just the start. Keep messing with me at your peril.
I got to go over to SI and instruct my minions, but I'll be back. Believe it.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:53
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Milhouse: Still need a rationale for why the world Needs gold now. the store of value one is dead at the moment. True 850 wass an extreme --try 500 the arugment remains the same.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:50
nailz ABOUT DEANER>(ABOUT DEANER):
DEANER's site is about to go commercial.....The address is at the old site....I overlooked it the first time too.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:46
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Ok I'm a believer, $325; never. I need a strong drink of
some kind


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:44
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD?>(IS GOLD DEAD?):
In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:42
Who was (?):
Who was beating on their chests asking for those Dec 400 naked options at 10? What is gold useful for? Gold doesn't disappear or evaporate!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:39
panda @@>(@@):
I find it real convenient that gold got blasted just as the U.S. markets were closing before a long holiday weekend . Just as I find it real convenient that the Dow ran up 100 points in the first twenty minutes, only to fall back, then close up 100.45 points. We don't want any bad press over the weekend, now do we?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:38
Paddy sleepless@ in new zealand>(sleepless@ in new zealand):
My Australian broker rang me yesterday and told me about the rumour.We both agreed it was a bit far fetched.Unbelievable decision!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:37
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Australia...The more I think about it, a Japan-Australia swap seems possible. It may have already been done when Hashimoto spoke. Japan wanted gold, and to lighten up on treasuries, Australia needs a happy customer for its raw materials and apparently needs cash. Even if it was laundered through a third party it could have happened that way. Anyone have anything official or a better scenario? What Australia should have done was to pay its pensioners in those beautiful $200 coins of theirs and not have written any checks for a while. The pensioners would have been better off, and much happier.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:36
6pak FYI @ Reuter, maybe of interest. >(FYI @ Reuter, maybe of interest. ):
REUTER ( News )

Reuter,Paul Julius,Freiherr von, originally, Israel Josaphat ( 1816-99 )
German journalist born in Cassel. He changed his name to REUTER in 1844.
In 1849 he formed in Aachen an organization for transmitting commercial
news by telegraph and pigeon post.

In 1851 he fixed his headquarters in London; and gradually his system
spread to the remotest regions.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:34
Impartial @George>(@George):
Thanks, buddy. I'll keep my powder dry for now.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:33
ACW (?):
How to bankrupt your own mining industry?

With friends in high places like this, I pity the poor Gold Mining Industry in Australia.

In my travels around the world over the last three years, the country I would least like to invest in was Australia, for it seems dedicated to the destruction of its main industries, further the taxes are so high that it is almost impossible for individual to save enough to aquire a stake, so they can get started in their own business.

AUSTRALIA'S CENTRAL BANK SOLD 167 TONS OF GOLD

Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Reuter Information Service

SYDNEY ( July 3, 1997 10:32 a.m. EDT ) - Australia's central bank announced Friday it had sold
167 tons of gold -- more than two-thirds of its holdings -- because it saw no benefit in holding
significant reserves.

----Snipped----

The Australian sales program followed a review by the bank of the costs and benefits of holding a
significant part of international reserves in the form of gold, the RBA said.

It said its board had concluded that although some gold was worth holding as a contingency, it no
longer needed to have 20 percent of its overall international reserves in the metal.

The principal reason for this conclusion was that a country in Australia's position, with large gold
reserves in the ground and high annual production, derives negligible diversification benefits from
holding a significant proportion of its international reserves in the form of gold, the RBA said.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:32
George s. Cole gold bear>(gold bear):
IMPARTIAL: I will have to see the volume figures before offering an opinion on whether this is the final selling climax. I suspect the volume is very high though. My gut feeling is that this will last a few more days and then reverse, but prices could drop considerably lower before the turnaround.

Many technicians have emphasized the importance of holding above $325 -- the 1993 low. With this support point now being taken out, it is going to get real rough before the final bottom is in. My guess -- something like $310-$315


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:23
Impartial @George>(@George):
George: The final selling climax, or the start of it ? What do you think ?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:23
vronsky GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?>(GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?):
Successful market veteran, George S. Cole foresees DOW 8500 in August followed by 20% decline - And Gold bear entering final panic stage. See June 30 report:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:19
Yogi @ Yellow Stone>(@ Yellow Stone):
Bears RULE, OK !!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:18
panda @!>(@!):
Sorry, that was $323.65. As if it makes a difference.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:17
panda @uncle!>(@uncle!):
EBN SAYS $323


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:16
Impartial watching the Big Bungee>(watching the Big Bungee):
George Cole ( at 13:08 ) : True, all true - but my, the premiums are getting cheaper !!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:14
D.A. can't.get.any.action>(can't.get.any.action):
SJJ:

I'm trying desparately to lose this ounce of gold but I just can't find anyone willing to make a fair bet.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:12
Mike Sheller @the Big Wave>(@the Big Wave):
FUNDY: If the demonitization of silver in the last century is any indication, then based on some of those magnificent silver spikes of the last 3 decades, I say SHOW ME DEMONI. Sometimes the answer is very simple. Paper IS paper. Gold IS gold. When paper starts blowin' in the wind, more people will remember that. Gold is in the correcting second wave of a 5 wave bull that will total over a hundred years. The next leg up, the THIRD wave, will begin from a base completed in late '97 / early '98. We are standing in King Kong's footprint, and we don't see any monkeys around.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:11
REB na>(na):
EBN @ 327.85. I'm thinking this will be a spike bottom before the close. Otherwise, I think US shorts will have a very nervous 4th of July.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:08
George Cole cancelling the insurance>(cancelling the insurance):
All: For CBs, gold should function as a kind of insurance policy against unanticipated disasters. Current CB gold sales activity can be compared to a homeowner deciding to cancel his homeowners's policy after many years because he has never had any problems. Now he doesn't have to pay the premiums and his spendable income is higher. But heaven help him if his home catches fire.

Ditto for investor gold demand. After many years of booming markets and increasing big business dominance of the political spectrum, capital has never been more arrogant and confidant. No need for gold under these conditions. Just sits there, declines in price, and doesn't earn interest. But when this confidence is shaken .....


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:08
GFD The Wall And The Writing On It>(The Wall And The Writing On It):
If there is any merit to Ted Butler's concerns about gold and silver loans never being repaid expect to see a lot more announcements of sales by second tier CB's as they face reality that the gold they loaned out is not comming back.

That is, a lot of CB sales may really defaults of gold loans in disguise.

Secondly - if you believe the news - there has been considerable forward selling by Austrailian mines recently and by SA mines a bit earlier. At the same time gold has held above it's lows. The spin ( of course ) is that there is enormous selling pressure on gold due to obsolescence and the emergence of a new era of bliss and enlightenment.

The reality is that there is enormous - and very diciplined - BUYING pressure. The fact that the buyers have been able to absorb the quatities of gold now being sold while maintaining a flat to down market indicates sophisticated and very capable accumualtion.

Sophisticated even to the point of playing along with all the CB propoganda and the extreme bearishness now present. All the better to get a valued asset at a bargain price!! I wonder how many bearish reports have been planted, encouraged, suggested by those who are interested in accumulation. Smart money is not called smart for nothing.

Those whom the gods would destroy are first made mad with publicity.

It is classic market theory that when prices are flat in the face of high volumes that distribution or accumulation occurs. It is written that in a down ( bear ) market when prices remain flat in the face of high volumes ( open intrests ) that accumulation by strong hands from weak hands is taking place.

We are not necessarily witnessing a debacle in gold. We may witnessing the work of the smart money, the strong money, the strong hands, the informed money of market mythology.

Consider.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 13:05
SJJ Steffenjaege@metronet.de>(Steffenjaege@metronet.de):
Speed: Thank you; I`m posting very rarely, have problems with my english ( makes some work to write those posts with the dictinary, reading goes easier ) .

Kuston: Thanks for the information about Oldman; sure, I made my own conclusions, but I`m often wrong and I`ve learned much from Oldman`s posts, so I miss them.

DAX now at 3940, maybe 4000 this week. In Germany people is really euphoric, no reaction on bad news, jumps on good news; Gold: no reaction on good news, tanking on bad news. I think gold is oversold, maybe a 5$-rally in Juli, more is not likely next time.
D.A. be careful, you will lose this ounce; I would put not one more Mark in before a bottom is seen.
SJJ



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:50
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Re: Australia...whenever I hear this stuff my initial reaction is despair, but...history shows that gold flows from weak hands to strong hands. We need to figure out who the buyers or single buyer was. Mabye the swap was for Hashimoto Treasuries. The Golden Rule still applies: He who has the gold makes the rules. If you told me that they were taking the alcohol out of the Foster's I would really be worried.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:43
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Massive Central Bank Selling of gold; Massive propoganda campaign against gold--gold holding up well;no knockout punch given--Watch for Robert Rubin to bite Alan Greenspan on the ear.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:37
GFD Poetry.>(Poetry.):
DA: Your 11:18 post has the stuff that will make history - no buys for gold and no sellers of stocks. A moment of poetic perfection. This moment may extend for a period of time but I am sure that it will go down in history as one of the classic inflextion points in the history of markets.

Astonishing.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:32
EB and one more thing...I promise>(and one more thing...I promise):
2weeks ( good days bad days ) -
Finally, something to ponder over my time off. Thank you for the well done piece.

My knee-jerk reaction is that gold will always have value and the US CB will never sell there supply - because they know better. Gold will hold it's value but you are right that bits & byte will one day rule OUR world/universe.

Thanks 2weeks.

...and to all jerking knees...

AWAY...for good

EB


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:27
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Whose interest is served in disrupting a bulletin board with arguments? I wonder? It sounds like a CIA plot!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:23
George Cole Privateer>(Privateer):
Captain Bill: Would be most interested in your take on the Australian gold sales and the FOMC decision to stand pat.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:19
EB @Please...stop and be civil.>(@Please...stop and be civil.):
After a bit of downtime I was able to read posts...and I was flabbergasted. I like to play too ( probably more than the next ) but what I read didn't seem like play. I am very new to this group and I do not know the history but this should not be how we treat each other. Let us act like the educated people that we all seem to be.

I now realize that I need a break from here...so I will turn OFF ( did I just say this? ) the computer and Celebrate for FOUR days the emancipation of Taxation without Representation. And I WILL use wine, beer, margaritas, duplicituos fornication, etc. to achieve my goals.

AWAY ALL

EB

and please...don't post anything brilliant for 4 days...Tort? I can wait for a good golf joke? Buddy?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:19
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Anyone want to check the current gold spot. I'm not going to tell you, you can have that pleasure yourself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:18
D.A. re.aussie>(re.aussie):
Donald:

Last I looked the AD was up about 10 ticks vs US$ and down .8% vs JY


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:11
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Did the Australian dollar react on that news?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:08
Bob A to George Cole>(to George Cole):
Thanks, he was on the business news about a month ago and was sure we were in for inflation.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 12:01
George Cole METZ>(METZ):
BOB A:

A few weeks ago Metz looked like he was ready to throw in the towel re: gold. I suspect has has done so by now.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:59
George Cole Australia>(Australia):
Wonder how many shorts knew about this in advance?





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Thursday July 3 11:12 AM EDT

Ldn gold fixes barely up on Australian sales news

LONDON, July 3 ( Reuter ) - The gold price fixed a touch above its morning level on Thursday minutes after the Reserve Bank of
Australia confirmed it had sold 167 tonnes of gold from its reserves.

Bullion fixed at $332.55 per ounce, 25 cents above the morning level and continuing a mild recovery from a new 4-1/4 year low
of $331.45 plumbed on Wednesday morning.

``This ought to be bullish given that the market is so short,'' one dealer said of the Australian news, but he added that alternative
interpretation was that another central bank sale could be waiting in the wings.

The Australian announcement said the sale reduced gold reserves to 80 tonnes from 247 tonnes and that 125 tonnes of metal were
delivered last month. The rest was scheduled for delivery in August and September.

``We're not surprised by the sale but we all thought it would be a European central bank,'' one dealer said.

``Its strange that one of their main exports is gold,'' the dealer added.

Australia was the world's third largest gold producer after South Africa and the United States last year producing 289 tonnes,
according to Gold Fields Mineral Services.

Gold prices have been under pressure for a year but that has intensified recently on rumours of cental banks sales and forward
selling from producers -- especially in Australia -- flattening any attempt at a rally.

The gloomy mood has provoked speculative investment funds into taking positions assuming the price will fall further and
scaring potential investors into the stock and bond markets.

``It is steadier today but it is still heading towards $325/$326,'' a dealer said referring to gold's 1993 low.

The New York markets close early tonight ahead of their Independence Day holiday on Friday.

``We may see some book squaring ahead of the U.S. holidey which would give the market some breathing space,'' another
dealer said.

The other precious metals were extremely quiet with silver barely moved all day. It was indicated at $4.63/$4.65 down two
cents.

Platinum was unchanged at $423.00/$426.00 and its sister metal palladium was a dollar firmer at $191.00/$194.00.

More news for related categories: stock capsules, international.


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Important Disclaimers and Legal Information
Questions or Comments?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:59
Bob A to D.A.>(to D.A.):
Is M. Metz bullish on gold? He was at one point buying H.M.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:59
Bob A to D.A.>(to D.A.):
Is M. Metz bullish on gold? He was at one point buying H.M.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:50
2weeks Good_days_bad_days>(Good_days_bad_days):
A ho-hum precious metals day, IMHO, but a good day at the Kitco chat, because: several good posts that get to what I believe are central issues. No. 1 is the Gold as a store of value issue. I see a major problem: once gold truly loses its cachet, will it ever regain it? The day gold is finally deposed as the trump card of economic resource, it may be replaced by something else ( what? good question ) , and then it surrenders and flees in shame, sinking forever to near the level of its practical worth. Certainly the jewelry value of gold is largely held up by its perceived store-of-value significance.

This truly disastrous scenario for gold has to be considered. In the fun-with-statistics vein, say, a 10-15% chance that this will happen, with a lot of geologists going back to school to learn C++.

The point is, every day that goes by, as CBs such as Australia's retreat from gold ( great post! ) , spot prices slide, and gold stocks slip, the odds rise that Teetering Rock will one day fall on the wrong side of the gold war. So, at some level, gold is fighting for its life as the ( if not a ) store of value in the world economic system.

Continuing, then, to respond to the question of what will become king-of-the-hill after gold, it may be bits and bytes, i.e., a juggernaut of public fanaticism and a deepened confidence with respect to the world's digital system of commerce and recordkeeping. When John Smith in Peoria comes home from work, he lolls in his BarcLounger with the deep satisfaction that comes from having run his hands over the last quarterly report detailing his rising holdings in his pension fund.

The bit&byte ( B&B ) could already be deemed to rule supreme, friends. Once Wi Liu Cheng, Shava Npanda, and cohorts are all online and getting their quarterlies, they may not want any more necklaces or brooches, much less a small sack of retirement fund buried deep next to the banyan tree.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:49
REB na>(na):
R. Burke:
A couple of days ago I went to Deaner website and found a message that he was moving to a new URL. User names and passwords were going to be required. I haven't checked it out. I suggest use one of the search services to find him.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:41
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):
Anyone know what happened to Deaner since July 1 ( his last analysis at his home site ) ? Did he leave a post here that I missed? Is he on holiday after he says go for it. I am still on the sidelines wating for more confirmation.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:35
D.A. a.portent.of.things.to.come>(a.portent.of.things.to.come):
The 1998 budget will call for spending little changed from 1997 levels, and the federal deficit will fall back
below the level of government investment, in line with the constitutional requirement, the source said.
All:

Another news clipping about the German budget. Bondholders beware.

Waigel won Transport Minister Matthias Wissmann's approval for a plan to suspend repayment of old railway debt in 1998, saving 2.8 billion marks, and repay only 300 million marks the next year.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:35
vronsky GOLD AND THE EURO>(GOLD AND THE EURO):
Leftists won France & increasing evidence of left winning next German elections portend negative implications for Euro. Gold is only reasonable alternative to Euro. See Orpailleur of France insights:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/gold_euro.html


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:29
Milhouse Why Not Gold ?>(Why Not Gold ?):

Fundy, your sentiments reflect the abject pessimism which is always seen at the depths of a bear market. In real terms, gold is the cheapest it has been since the early 1970s. Certainly, anyone who has bought gold since 1979 would have seen their gold lose purchasing power. Therefore, during this period it has not been a satisfactory store of value ( note that it is unfair to compare 1980 and 1997 because you are comparing a major cyclical high with a major cyclical low ) . One reason for this is that for most of the last 17 years the rate of increase in US money supply has been trending lower. This situation has reversed and the last 4 years have seen increasing rates of money supply growth. If this trend continues, higher prices of gold will result. However, there are certainly no guarantees where the future is concerned.

Regards, Milhouse

BTW, this is my 4th post today, a new all-time high. And Puetz reckons we don't have inflation !!



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:27
D.A. sounds.about.right>(sounds.about.right):
Panda:

This would seem to put a cap on the upside to Australian mining shares.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:21
Este on Gold Bear>(on Gold Bear):
Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch thinks that there is too much gold on the market and that the price could go down to $250 in the next two years.
I am sure few people on this Site will be surprised by Ted's forecast!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:21
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- Let's see if I understand this, paraphrasing; In case of 'emergency' we'll just nationalize the mines! There, that's are gold reserves.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:18
D.A. the.other.side.of.the.coin>(the.other.side.of.the.coin):
All:

Last night I related a conversation that I had with our overnight metals desk. I was told that there were no, as in zero buy orders on the gold books. Today I clipped a quote out of a wire story detailing the perfection of our economic condition. It was made by Michael Metz, who used to be a staunch bear on both stocks and bonds.

The data couldn't be better. It was in line with expectations and the details were good, said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

On the whole, it looks like the apparent momentum for wages has slowed, which is exactly what the market was looking for. All of the sellers are out of the market, he said.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 11:04
FinallyAMinority @Ramblings>(@Ramblings):
WW: You mean that finally I can be classified as a minority? ( Goldbug ) Does that mean that I can now get preferential treatment and all of the associated perks that go along with it? This victim demands recourse immediately!

Just a guess ( IMO ( @Honolulu Office ) ) could this be Mr Schultz?

Johnny Boy ( HepCat@Cut,Burn&Poison ) is that you I see peaking out between the legs of your uncle? Don't look up, he might want a favor...By the way, for a good read pick up a copy of Unintended Consequences.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:59
D.A. more.dumping>(more.dumping):
All:

Seems like the central bank of Australia has dumped 2/3's of their gold reserves over the last 6 months. They could find no value in owning gold. I wonder if they have diversified into S&P's like Christy Whitman.
Now there's value.

http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/070397/biz19_20080.html


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:59
red neck yard@bird.tr>(yard@bird.tr):
Jes got back up from da holler. Me and the sheriff been tended
our still fixins.
Got myself tick bit. Gol-dang,
dem dare ticks isa jus as bad as a gold bug I thought as I
was heating up the bug's behind with a hot match to make
him back off. Noth'n short of smoke and fire will make a
true gold bug back off. The critter keeps digging in deeper.
Tar-nation!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:46
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
General questions/comments:

My recent experience is that gold tanks when Wall Street corrects ( and as it has gone up ) . What would be the general lag time that it would take gold to go up after a BIG market correction? I would think that it takes several weeks/months to pan out because the stocks, mutuals players seem to be more 'long term committed, dollar cost averaging, buying on the dip, etc. The sentiment I saw after the '87 bloodbath was if I'd only stayed in, not liquidated, bought low, added to my position, yada, yada, yada and seems very prevalent today. It would take a while for them to realize that it was a long term correction ( bubble burst? ) before they committed to something else ( gold ? ) And then - why gold? Foriegn stocks did rather well after '87 - would that potentailly be the case here?

With the injection of more foriegn monies in the markets ( and it looks like a lot more in the future ) , won't this prolong the bullish DOW & DJIA? And continue to pound gold into the dirt?

Also, I read here at KITCO that the dollar is losing ground. Everything I see, however, with the Deutsch Mark & Swiss Frank is that they are falling. Am I missing something?

Any insight would be appreciated.



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:37
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Millhouse: Thanks for your reply. I have no doubt that the Asians and Indians are by far the greatest believers in gold and in many other ideas that have long since left the western world. Going back to the argument that was present here a couple of months ago 850 gold is now a nominal 335 and in corrected dollars about 100. The store of value idea is currently dead. The purchasers of gold anytime in the last 17-18 years will tell you that gold as a store of value is not a valid concept for their lifetime. What is needed is some reason to need gold on a daily basis the store of value idea is not a reason to buy it as can be seen on an hourly basis at the moment.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:26
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ: Make that at 02:35.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:25
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
Phew! ( the gold is there ) .

Maybe all the short sellers who were calling for another BRE-X will have
to cover. One down ( BGO/AZS ) and one to go ( KRY ) .

BGO/AZS:

Bema Gold Corporation, Arizona Star Resource Corp. -
Joint News Release

Strong Economics Indicated by Scoping Study on Cerro Casale Project,
Aldebaran Property, Chile

51% Arizona Star Resource Corp. / 49% Bema Gold Corporation

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 3 /PRNewswire/ -- Bema Gold Corporation
( AMEX:BGO ) ( ``Bema'' or the ``Company'' ) and Arizona Star Resource Corp. ( ``Arizona Star'' or
the ``Company'' ) are pleased to announce the following update on the Cerro Casale project,
Aldebaran property in Northern Chile.

Engineering Scoping Study

The Companies have received an engineering scoping study on the Cerro Casale deposit
completed by Mineral Resource Development, Inc. ( ``M.R.D.I.'' ) an independent consulting
engineering firm. The study confirms Cerro Casale is an economically strong project and
recommends that the Companies proceed to a prefeasibility study.

The primary objective of this initial study was to determine the optimum mining and recovery
process to develop the Cerro Casale project. The scoping study concludes that the best
development scenario for Cerro Casale is a large scale open pit gold copper mine utilizing
standard grinding and flotation techniques to produce a gold rich copper concentrate. While the
oxide portion of the deposit ( approximately 90 million tonnes ) is amenable to heap leaching and
carbon in leach recovery processes, the study results indicate the mixing of oxide and sulphides for
flotation is the optimum alternative that simplifies both mining and processing. Cyanide leaching of
the flotation cleaner tails also enhances project economics by increasing gold production.

The study assumes the copper gold concentrate in slurry form is transported by pipeline to the
Chilean coast and shipped to a smelter for final processing.

The scoping study was based on a geological resource estimate made by M.R.D.I. as previously
released on May 15, 1997. The resource estimate was based on 214 reverse drill holes and 73
deep diamond drill holes. The Casale deposit remains open to the south. ( See drill results later in
this release ) .

Metallurgically, the scoping study utilized results from extensive flotation and cyanidation tests
conducted on selected samples of oxide and sulphide ores from the Casale deposit. This testing
has now been carried out to the prefeasibility level.

The scoping study identifies two different throughput scenarios to be further examined as
alternatives for the prefeasibility study. Case one assumes mining and processing 135,000 tonnes
of ore per day yielding in excess of 845,000 ounces of gold and 260 million pounds of copper per
year over a 19.5 year mine life. Case two assumes 180,000 tonnes of ore are mined and
processed per day at a coarser crush yielding over 1 million ounces of gold per year and 320
million pounds of copper over a 15 year mine life.

The second objective of the study, was to indicate the potential economics of the project. Results
from the study indicate that in both cases the project economics are robust. By applying gross
revenue from copper production at US$1.00 per pound against cash operating costs, the on site
operating costs plus initial capital cost per ounce of gold produced, in both cases is approximately
US$100.00. Similarly in both cases the total operating costs including transportation, smelter and
refining charges plus total capital cost is approximately US$200.00 per ounce of gold produced.

Based on the positive results of the scoping study the Companies have commissioned M.R.D.I. to
complete a prefeasibility study which will refine and optimize capital and operating cost estimates.
Management believes there is the potential for significant reductions in both operating and capital
costs. A detailed geologic resource estimate is currently being updated as the basis for optimizing
the mineable resource which will be utilized in the prefeasibility study. The prefeasibility study is
scheduled to be completed during the fourth quarter 1997.

Casale Drill Results

A total of 83 deep diamond drill holes have now been completed at Cerro Casale. The deposit
remains open to the south. Drill hole 77 was a 250 meter step-out further to the south drilled at a
-67 degree angle to the north and returned 408 meters grading 1.36 grams per tonne gold and
0.26% copper from 462 to 870 meters. This hole intersects the southern shoulder of the Casale
deposit at the southern edge of the resource model. The deposit remains open to the south
indicating the potential for a further resource increase. Hole 77 results were not available and
therefore not included in M.R.D.I.'s updated geological resource released May 15, 1997.

Currently holes 87 and 88 are being completed. Hole 88 is a further step-out south of Hole 77.
Upon completion of these holes, a break in drilling is scheduled for approximately 4 weeks.

BEMA GOLD CORPORATION ARIZONA STAR RESOURCE CORP.
Clive T. Johnson Roger T. Richer
C.E.O., Chairman & President President

The Vancouver and Toronto Stock Exchanges neither approve nor disapprove the information
contained in this News Release. Bema Gold Corporation trades on the Vancouver, Toronto and
American stock exchanges. Symbol: BGO. Arizona Star Resource Corp. Trades on the
Vancouver Stock Exchange. Symbol: AZS.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:24
Milhouse Why Gold >(Why Gold ):

Fundy - I don't know what better reason you need than the old chestnut paper is just paper. Gold is a store of value simply because billions of people throughout the world consider it to be so. Although gold has lost much prestige in the West, it has never been more sought after in Asia. Ask any citizen of India or China what they would prefer - an ounce of gold or the equivalent amount of their national currency and you will be surprised how popular gold is.

Paper currencies come and go because their strength inevitably rests on the integrity and the whims of politicians. Gold cannot be arbitrarily created by governments to suit their political agendas.

Gold will once again shine brightly. Whether it is a good investment at the moment, your guess is as good as mine.

Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:24
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ @12:40: Awesome! Somewhere in another history, Feynman is grinning.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 10:06
George S. Cole stocks amd gold>(stocks amd gold):
MILHOUSE: You could be right about the stock market surging to new highs following a stiff 1997 correction. I for one do not pretend to know how fast the market will recover after the inevitable break. Best to be on the sidelines waiting fore the dust to settle. The outcomes could range anywhere from the Steve Puetz superbear to your 15,000 2003 target.

But if you are right about the Dow surging again after a 30% correction, I find it hard to envision gold going to $2,500 or even $1000 for that matter.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:52
Milhouse @Impressed>(@Impressed):

RJ - I'm extremely impressed at your ability to type ! Your recent treatise on juxtaposed feline histories would have taken me at least half a day to construct, even with both typing digits working at full speed. You are indeed in the envious position of having alternative career possibilities if the markets go against you ! ( :- ) )
Regards, Milhouse


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:51
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
The BIG question that should be concerning gold investors ( as opposed to traders ) is whether gold is being reduced to a commodity which trades a bit above production costs or whether this is just another dip. Regardless of the cause, be it CB conspiracies or the gradual abandonment of gold as a part of the financial life of the planet, the important question is: is gold being demonitarized as happened to silver last century.

Enthusiastic comments about this being the last blow off before the phoenix like rise are based on a big assumption that needs to be examined Does the world need gold as a store of value anymore? Trotting out the old chestnuts about paper is just paper etc won't do it. An analysis of why gold is needed is required.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:45
Milhouse Gold vs Stocks>(Gold vs Stocks):

Mike Sheller and George Cole : You may both be correct.

IMHO, if the stockmarket crashed next week then money would flow to gold. Gold stocks, which would initially drop in sympathy with the overall market, would make a swift recovery. The situation would be very different than 1987.

BUT, what if the stockmarket bull has a few years left in it ? After a decent correction ( say 30% ) in 1997, during which gold accrues only minimal benefit, the market continues onward and upward into the year 2003 ( for example ) . Gold begins its long awaited rally in Q1 1998 and also continues to move up into 2003.

By 2003, we have the Dow at 15,000 and gold at $2,500 ( that is, a ratio of 6 to 1 ) . Gold shares would obviously be VERY expensive at this time, even relative to the high bullion price. If the market then crashed, gold shares would be the hardest hit.

There are obviously an infinite number of hypothetical scenarios, but my main point is that it may be premature to pronounce the current stockmarket bull as terminally ill. After a few sneezes at some stage during the next 3 months it could very well make a full recovery, stronger and even more determined to baffle, allowing the Mike Sheller 1987 plot to develop.

TTFN, Milhouse ( in memory of Front )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:25
Found on the Net: Fraud Hotline! fraud.osi@gao.gov>(fraud.osi@gao.gov):
FraudNET

The General Accounting Office maintains FraudNET to facilitate reporting of allegations of fraud, waste, abuse, or mismanagement of federal funds and resources.

If you want to report such allegations, you may do so by filling out a FraudNET Form or by using one of four other methods:

1.Send allegations to this e-mail address: fraud.osi@gao.gov
2.Report allegations using the GAO FraudNET Bulletin Board System ( BBS ) . The telephone number for this BBS is 202-371-2455.
3.Send a fax to 202-371-2442 4.

Write to:

GAO
P.O. Box 1736
Washington, D.C. 20013


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:24
Donald @Home>(@Home):
MIKE SHELLER & GEORGE S. COLE: I think if you make Gold-Dow comparisons at the per ounce ratio you get an easier picture to understand. Investments of differing types compete with each other for cash dollars. Inflation confuses the real value of the cash dollars so the per ounce way gives it some semblance of a reality check. Nothing is perfect though.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:17
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Amnesty: And listen to some Ray Lynch. It's good for the nerves.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:16
panda @>(@):
Jobs report out, T-Bonds rallying up a point. How much more good news can there be?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:13
George S. Cole gold and the stock market>(gold and the stock market):
Mike Sheller: The current situation re: gold and stocks is radically different than 1997. Gold and gold stocks had soared along with the market in 1987; this is the exact opposite of the 1996-97 trend. Gold is MUCH cheaper today relative to stocks than it was in 1987. Dow was just 6 times the bullion price in 1987; it sells at 23 times the bullion price today.

Contrary to 1987, a big break in the stock market would be the best possible scenario for gold bullion and by extension for gold shares.

We will soon find out who is correct on this question.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 09:03
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.com>(gunrunnr@bsc.com):
All ( IMO ) :Why don't we all put our real e-mail address on the posts so we can send messages directly. ( I think an occaisional imposter is amusing - like Mike Tyson, Rodney King, Dr. K - and shouldn't be taken seriously )

John HepCat: Maybe you shouldn't use Government Resources ( i.e., Computers/Networks/phone lines etc. ) for your posts. That may be interpreted as Fraud Waste and Abuse by some U.S. taxpayers. Except for gold-bugs and egos, there are no diseases here at KITCO. : - )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:57
Amnesty @cold wind passes in the night>(@cold wind passes in the night):
Gold up 1.70. I'll keep reading Laura Day and try and some vibes George
Soros's way. Good Morning all.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:50
WDL @concur>(@concur):
I agree with Mike Sheller's recent post that gold stocks would also fall if market tanked...ALL SHIPS FALL IN A LOWERING TIDE...However, I
do believe that if the market tanked and gold fell along with it, gold
would bounce back much more quickly than most other stocks.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:36
D.A. lease.rates>(lease.rates):
RLM:

I generally watch the one month rate and the one year rate. An interesting pattern that I have noticed, although by no means foolproof, is that rallies tend to occur when the one month forward rate ( libor - lease rate ) is less than the one year forward rate. I have not tested this in a rigorous fashion but have eyeballed it on Bart's historical data. I can not give any good reason for why this should be so. We are at the moment in this happy state of affairs. We shall see.

Should the physical market ever tighten significantly or interest rates collapse below the lease rate ( like Japan, and I believe Switzerland at the moment ) it would encourage buying forward gold as it would have a positive yield.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:16
Mike Sheller Exogenously speaking>(Exogenously speaking):
A market collapse will not necessarily bring gold back to life. The '87 crash didn't. Gold was rising BEFORE the market topped and dived. Look back at your charts guys n' gals. Almost EVERY bull move in metals begins just prior to a market top. The ultimate cycle lows for gold & silver bullion come in BEFORE stocks top out. The metals are rising AS stox top, and very often peak even before stocks do, unless we're talking major asset inversion ( which WILL come in the next few years ) . But in ANY case, the precious bottom and turn BEFORE stox top. If the metals are not in an EARLY rising trend from a valid base if and when a market slump occurs ( and I don't see anything as rapid as '87 ) then they will get kicked along with stocks. In '87 the metals had topped along with stocks, so they did hardly anything when the crash occurred. All the gold & silver action was PRE CRASH. There has to be a natural transfer of momentum to the metals first before stocks give a sign of topping. While I personally get bearish on stocks every time I look at the Dow, I am still long shares ( other than mining ) because the jury is still out on whether bonds have one more bounce in them, and the metal markets have not exhibited end cycle strength. Call me old fashioned.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:05
George S. Cole silence is golden>(silence is golden):
URIS: There is much wisdom in your words. I, for one, am on the same wavelength.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 08:02
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
Refering to last nights continuous senseless dialog with hepcat,
dont you Kitco regulars realize that
silence is the perfect expression of scorn ?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:52
panda @why.not?>(@why.not?):
The exogenous factor will be little old lady with a new [:- ( ]fifty Dollar bill asking, How much gold can I get for this? Where upon, the shorts, hearing that there is demand for gold, will panic. Their rush to cover their short positions will cause the new bull market in gold. :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:49
George Cole shocks>(shocks):
ALL: Still seems to be that an exogenous shock -- most likely a big drop in the stock market -- will be needed to trigger a new secular bull market in gold. We could have a powerful short-covering rally at any time. But without serious investor demand any such rally will be short-lived; pun intended.

Ted Butler: Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the shorting capacity of the hedge funds ultimately determined by the CBs? They can short as much as the CBs will lend them, but not more. And who knows how much the CBs are willing to lend? Could rising lease rates reflect some reluctance by the CBs to continue shoveling out dirt cheap gold loans.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:40
Bob @....Tokyo Bay spill is one-tenth of original estimate>(@....Tokyo Bay spill is one-tenth of original estimate):
Oh Well...just when I thought we had an exogenous factor brewing in Japan the truth was disclosed.

Cheers


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:37
Donald donald@Uconect.net>(donald@Uconect.net):
SPEED: There it is.
NAILZ: I am with you on the no need for a big event theory. An event could certainly do it for us goldbugs but the Bull Market in stocks doesn't need an event to end. When the public gets in, as they are now, it can end just like the hula-hoop, or the flapper craze, or the Duck-Ass haircut, if you are old enough to remember any of that stuff. Gold is the 6000 year old fad that won't go away any time soon.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:26
RLM Lease Rates>(Lease Rates):
D.A.
You mentioned that the gold lease rates are rising. Kitco posts 1, 3, 6 and 12 month rates. While all are rising, is there any one of these time periods that you watch more closely?
Thanks


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 07:05
Mike Sheller please stop me before I post again...>(please stop me before I post again...):
RJ: I take exception to your 23:54. Just what is wrong with cheap gin and a $3 whore? I say $2.50 before $3.75! What's that Pepi? Oh, yes, Pepi liked the dog urine part. I myself would NEVER pay $12 for a tie. I may be an astrologer, but I think I can also be a value investor. A very graphic artist, you. Is this what Glenn has been trying to tell us all along? Maybe you're wasting your time and talent trading precious metals. The BIG money is in poetry, you know. Speaking of astrology, it's time to explore my exogenous zones. Thank for the gratuitous buxom. Sometimes a fella needs a friend.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 06:57
Mike Sheller are you there Johnny Addie?>(are you there Johnny Addie?):
Warm, butterdripping popcorn in hand, I slide my way along the second row. A tall blonde, in a pink, tightfitting suit, veiled black hat, and skirt slit just a bit too high up her black stockinged thigh, glances at me from the corner of her eye as she lights a cigarette. I brush by a portly lawyer as he leans back toward someone in the row behind him, a hand cupped to the side of his mouth as he shouts a joke over the crowd noise. I pass a man with a calculator in his lap, frantically comparing numbers, figures dancing in his brain, before the opening bell. I hear the muttering of a gnome-like, wizened frenchman, his beret slouched past one eye, his thumbs twiddling wildly as he speaks, his words in heavily accented english come home in a riveting flash of light, belieing an illusorily clownish demeanor. At last my empty seat. I take it, and face the ring. It's time to GET READY TO RRRRUUUMMMMMBLLLEEE!
I have a ringside seat at Kitco, and the bites are about to begin! Man, it don' get any bedda dan dis!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 06:50
Speed @tired>(@tired):
2weeks: Looks like you are right. Metals are heading up in what is probably short covering. I still like the corner the market conspiracy theories. : )

RJ: Thanks for the response. Your opinions are valued. Try not to step in anything late at night here. Bart's going to have to invest in kitty litter, lysol and a good mop, or throw the cat out.

Donald: The net was slow from Houston also, plus I get kicked off by my kids as we time share one pc. Who's your ISP?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 06:33
Short Bull looking@the charts>(looking@the charts):
I bought Platinum, in hopes we would get a bounce in gold and silver
to sell against in the next few days. Looking at August gold's chart
I notice August gold bottomed at 352, later built a nice base at 342,
and now it has stalled at 332. Yes, 332 should be no different, we
should get some basing here for at least a bounce.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 06:30
REB What?>(What?):
338.70?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 06:25
Friend of Cherokee @aholes.com>(@aholes.com):
Yes, he does have one! Hey you guys. Come on now. Give Cherokee a break. He's not that bad. At times she is sort of an idiot, and I agree that her handle is a bit corny, but heck, what the hey. She's at the razors edge. Isnt that too cool! She is one sharp cookie. No I did not call her a KOOKie! She trys real hard to impress us with her wit and charm. Don't you just love it. Hey, let's forget about learning anything here or discussing interesting things. We have CHEROKEE to entertain us! She is really a cool dudette! Besides, she is above all the nonsense of name calling and petty bickering. She is my kind of woman.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 05:08
Occams Razor @infected with hepC >(@infected with hepC ):
Which cat? Where? Who said that? A kitten can have a combination of position and velocity. However whether it is a kitten or not depends
upon which semi-trailer you drive over it.

Nesting.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 04:45
Donald @Work>(@Work):
2WEEKS: I like your analytical method. Do the same thing with the possibility of stocks continuing to rise and see what you get. The net was soooo slow last night, 260M American billionaires checking the new worth of their portfolios, that I dropped of early.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:49
Jack The Ted and Andy Show>(The Ted and Andy Show):

Maybe I see things differently than the people here, but:
..........
I think that Ted Arnold's of MLPF&S has the assignment to keep investors out of gold and gold shares, so that whatever money that goes into the investment arena will find its way into the financials.
As for Andy Smith, his real purpose at UBS is to steer such funds into foreign bonds, stocks and currencies.

I think that the fear at MLPF&S and UBS is that gold can take a big chunk of their main business.
Thus we have The Ted and Andy Show.

Government also have to have an upper hand; and thus, tend to play with economic statistics to keep the populace happy.

These are The Unholy Alliance.

Gold should be much higher on demand and cost of production alone, this is without taking any consideration of its safe value. But is it higher?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:41
Who Cares? emerald@rmci.net>(emerald@rmci.net):
Kuston, re: New Era


It's late, I'm not in a arguing mood.

#1 - Oh, ye of little history. The world has indeed seen
similar periods. Reference Industrial Revolution,
massive changes in communication, transportation,
manufacturing after the Civil War.

#2 - What will happen to the other 90%? The same thing
that happened during the latter 1800s and the 1930s -

a reduced work week, in the area of 15-20%.

So that a reduced work week might be accomplished without
sacrifice or instability, land prices will fall in the
area of 50% or so.

Lower work week = more time to spend on education =
return to equality in the work force.

#3 - Return to gold standard, or a de facto substitute.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:38
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
RJ 2:48 : I look forward to your thoughts on the new era. My eyes
are clouded I know, but I still think I can see more than most. Only
because I have a very very different view then most. I bring this up
because I would like to see through different eyes and from a different
angle. You can express your views very well when you try - I await.
I would also welcome any other eyes and angles - if you will share them.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:30
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Hey Cherocreep@over the edge:

You loonytoons mf!

I'm gonna byfbi!! You understand?

You fahmf!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:24
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
To IMO:

Subject: CheroCREEP

You hit the nail on the head. Cherokee is a Cherocreep!!! He is the definition of a COMPLETE IDIOT!!!

What do you get when you breed a complete moron with maniac!!! Let me give you a hint: He is a person ( probably a woman ) who makes moronic posts and goes by the idiotic name... you guessed it.. of CHEROKEE.

Cherokee, do us all a favor and especially yourself, perform a Kervorkian maneuver on yourself. You're a miserable creature, so put you and your flux bs out of misery!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:21
RJ Cover the GOLD>(Cover the GOLD):
Speed @ 17:07 - I covered some at 334 will cover the rest at 330 tomorrow. Yes, I look for a bounce of 6 - 10 to re-short. I agree with the 300 - 325 estimates short term. I have been in these markets too long to think it will happen in a strait line. I will probably cover at whatever I get tomorrow, I’ll expect a bounce on Monday. I will sell at anything above 340



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 03:03
RJ Kuston @ 02:40>(Kuston @ 02:40):
Kuston - Per my 00:36, I have opted out of that game. I can only keep up these shenanigans for a short time and then I become bored. I apologize to all who have suffered through this unnecessary clutter.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:56
RJ Kuston>(Kuston):
Kuston @ 05:21 - I did not read you post until a few minutes ago. You have given me much to think about. You have cut to the heart of the argument and your words demand consideration. Yours is the finest response I have read and, which open avenues of thought, that previously remained in the dark. I would like to respond, but only with the fullness of time


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:48
cherokee @razors-edge>(@razors-edge):
when sharpening ones' battle axe, it is best, to test
it upon, rotting wood. nothing lost, only an edge gained.

imo---wtfay? stfu!



Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:40
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
John & RJ : You guys are so cute playing your little games. Do you have
docoder rings also? Have you tried your games over at the 2600
group. They would love your little games - oh yea, they have some fun
games of thier own you could play. Make sure you warn them that you
work in a government agency and you have close contacts with enforcement
personal. It will really impress them.

Short Bull: Welcome to PL - I also purchased some today. The Japanese
market can be found in Kitco link list. It ends with .jp.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:35
RJ Ron @ 12:40>(Ron @ 12:40):
Your treatise on quantum physics was spectacular. I’ve often suspected paper clips of this duality, but Hiesenburg also showed us all that the paper clip can just as easily, as infant coat hanger created from the ether, change back into a paper clip. The only evidence we have of this behavior is that we just know it has to happen, much like many just know that gold will go to $500.

Feynman diagrams often resembled Rorschach tests, but the diagrams themselves depicted the sum over histories, in which any particle takes not one path in a journey, but all possible paths. This paradox has been demonstrated in the experiment of the box with two slits. This experiment proved that a single particle - a photon, lets say - travels trough two slits in a barrier at the same time, and upon reaching a detector is shown to interfere with itself as if it were a wave and not a particle. This has been widely understood to be proof, written into the fabric of space time, that even particles masturbate. Whether or not they feel guilt about this behavior is still unknown.

The aforementioned box with two slits should not be confused with the famous box in which Schroedinger’s unfortunate cat waits for his fate. Of course in this thought experiment, the cat is less alive or dead than both alive and dead. This holds true until an observer collapses the wave form and a particular history is chosen. Nowhere in discussions of this sad cat has any mention been made that the cat is also an observer and would thus seal its own fate.

Had this cat lived through the diabolical machinations of physicists, with far too much space time on their hands, it would undoubtedly give birth to Schroedinger’s kittens. Yes, the cat in the box is a female, actually it used to be a paper clip but that’s all in the sum over histories now.

Schroedinger’s kittens are treated with much the same disrespect as their wiry mother, far beyond the assistance or rescue of Bob Barker. These unfortunates are each placed in there own death/life duality box. Each box is rigged to kill these poor cats should a particle measure a certain spin. The reason for two kitties is that, rather than a single particle, a pair of particles, created from a single event, will cause the ax to fall onto one of our fluffy friends.

When two particles a created from a single event, the sum of their spin properties must always add to zero. We know the any particle does not choose a past until observed, thus, if we observed one particle to have a certain spin, the other particle must then assume a history of the offsetting spin, always obeying Newton’s law of conservation of energy, creating a sum of zero.

We now place these two kitties in separate space crafts, connected by a tubular umbilical. The event transpires to create two particles which promptly speed toward their respective kittens. The umbilical is now severed, using a chain saw which spontaneously sprang into being as a side effect of the improbable event of a paper clip choosing the coat hanger lifestyle. These craft speed apart at a significant fraction of the speed of light until, several years later, they are now 1 light year apart. The kittens have survived on strict rations of post-paperclyliptic Meow Mix of which these precocious kitties have asked for by name.

We know that if a particle has X spin, it will break a vile of poison in the box and a kitten will die. We also know that should the particle be measured to have Y spin, the vial will not break, and the kittens will grow to become cats and therefore graduate to the even more frightening experiments of the type visited on their poor mother. We also know that if we measure one of these related particles to have a certain spin, this will collapse the wave form of both particles, which will then assume the only histories available to them, that of an opposite of the other particle and thus obeying the law of conservation of energy.

When we then open the spacecraft of kitty one, we will observe if the fearless feline is alive or dead, always remembering that until the act of observation, the observed particle will not assume any history, preferring its own sum over histories until it actually has to choose one. This phenomenon is much like the Clinton administration, which will not take a position on any issue until the latest polls are in.

Let us say that we have opened the space craft and observed the particle to have a spin of Y. Like flipping a coin, the chances that the particle will assume a spin of Y is exactly 50%. We now find a live, fluffy kitty vehemently asking for more Meow Mix by name. We know that the particle did not assume the Y spin until observed and, thus, the kitten’s fate was not decided until the actual observation, exactly the same as its hapless mother.

Remembering the law of conservation of energy, as soon as we observe the particle of kitty one, the particle of kitty two must then, immediately, assume the history of a particle of spin X. The crucial distinction here is the each particle assumes a particular history only after the act of observation. Kitty one, was always alive, as kitty two was always dead, but until the observation, neither kitten was alive or dead. They existed in a juxtaposed position of life and death. If we could travel back in time and repeat this observation, again and again, for a hundred times, we would find 50 live kittens and 50 dead as a doornail kitties.

When we discover kitty one to be alive, and knowing that the second particle must assume an opposite history, we can only conclude thatK2 was immediately killed only upon the observation of K1. How can this be? The kitties are now 1 light year apart! Relativity tells us that nothing travels faster that the speed of light and that for a photon of light, time stands still and has no meaning. Yet as soon as we observe our kitten to be alive or dead, K2 must immediately, without the slightest pause, assume the opposite. The important thing to keep in mind, is that once a history is assumed, it has always been that way. If K1 is alive, K2 has always been dead although this history was not chosen until we observed the results.

Einstein called this instantaneous transfer of information spooky action at a distance and was one of the primary reasons that he rejected quantum theory for most of his life, even thought he was instrumental in its discovery. The accepted term today is non locality or, as some prefer, poppycock.

This very oversimplified explanation of the sum over histories has been made to offer consolation to all those despairing to gold market today. Content yourselves to know that, while gold is in the doldrums here, in another history, gold is soaring.

Ron, I had but one tenth the punch lines in you own treatment of this subject, but this is pretty dry stuff. I enjoyed your writing tremendously. For those of you bored to tears by this post, realize, that in another history, I spent the last several hundred words extolling the virtues and imminent rise of gold.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:24
paisano palermo di sicilia>(palermo di sicilia):
Como Vai Paisano, Pepino di Cortino ( Bella Italia, I Lova You...Bacchi, Bacchii ) ? Multo bene, e?

It'sa maka me sad, to see you guysa fighta witha thisa hepcat guy - uno bruto gato - e igual um finocchio -- pato louco, capeche, paisano E uma prima donna! Cosi fan tuti finocchio! E uma bruta bestia. Capeche paisano? Uma bruta porca, capeche paisano?

Bella Sicilia, eu te amo


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 02:07
Pepino di Cortino Bella Italia, I Lova You...Bacii, Bacii>(Bella Italia, I Lova You...Bacii, Bacii):

You guy'sa: Ima know. It'sa Hertz, thatsa whata my girla friend, she say, wenna we maka love in da back of dissa car thata we renta.
It'sa no nice, It'sa maka me sad, to see you guysa fighta witha thisa hepcat guy -uno bruto gato- thasa what Ima thinka. He'sa matto, donna you paya him the attentione. Whata you shoulda do is drinka some vino and be happi, maybe hava a pizze and den chasa the signorene.
I thinka the gold she finda the bottom at about $328 and denna she do upa like, how you say, the fireworksa adda Una Fiesta Italiano. Mama Mia, bella Italia, I lova you.
How you say?
Bye


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 01:44
Jack Government Institution?>(Government Institution?):

Hepcat....Johnny boy: Did you say, that you work for a Government Institution? Now that doesn't say much for government employees..... OR did you mean, that you are a patient in a government mental institution?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 01:28
Investigator of the CDC Cease and Desist>(Cease and Desist):
Heptcat: You should have told the public that CDC ( 404 area phone number ) is the the Center for Demented Clowns. And that your membership had been revoked 3 years ago, because of you're bizarre behavior ( even by CDC standards ) . Please cease and desist, or we shall be obliged to take stern legal action to protect our reputation.

Yours truly,

Bonaparte Napoleon


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 01:07
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

For those of you who missed out, think of GEB: The eternal golden braid.

( Since this reference is going to be too big a stretch for some, I'll explain it, but only
this one time. )

There is also a message hidden in the timing of the posts, just like the position
of a nucleotide within the codon is necessary to determine its meaning or
importance. Very early on, we recognized how things could be encoded in the
space between posts, and we are always trying to get posts entered at
exact times and with certain elapsed times between entries. But there are
a lot of factors that make it difficult to do this - Cludgy response, too many
users, our inability to type long messages in a short amount of time, etc.
For example, the last set of three was supposed to encode 3 2 5,
( our signature ) but we missed the second entry deadline by a minute, so in
effect we failed. Still, when I told RJ I was wailing on him, you have to
examine the four previous posts, and know a little bit about RJ, for this
to make any sense. Anyway, we got a big kick out of it here.
Sorry for the self-aggrandizement. It's just to point out that sometimes
the sentences are conveying more than the words, and the posts in
toto are trying to convey additional messages.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 01:06
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 01:00
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
BART: Is there a projected date for the return of the search feature?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:47
cat hepjohn@me.dunce.du?>(hepjohn@me.dunce.du?):

hep - Try this one:

I wager I will continue to read everybody's posts
and everyone will continue to wager on yours.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:42
hep johncat@ed.munc.due>(johncat@ed.munc.due):

John, here's a better one:

I will wager I continue to read everybody's posts.
But I make a special point to forget yours the fastest.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:39
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

RJ - I will wager I continue to read everybody's posts.
I just probably won't remember yours.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:36
RJ YEP!>(YEP!):
John-boy - I will wager you continue to read my posts. You, however, have wasted enough of my time. Your name and oh so cute hepcat handle have become transparent to my eyes. Life is to short to piddle on the likes of you. You sure have a lot of friends, don't you?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:34
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

RJ - We already had the match.
Man, did you miss out.

It was brilliant, and more brilliant in that it was evanescent.
Perfect world is the world not created, and all that.

C'mon, RJ, you're bringing prepared material onto the stage.
No scripts here. Spontaneity. Parry and thrust. You've got to
think on your feet.

Serious? Brrrrrraaaaapppppppp!!!!


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:28
RJ OOOOOOhhhh>(OOOOOOhhhh):
Yes! the Kitty is Gritty....You take yourself sooooooo seriously, while the rest of the world snickers behind your back. Pardon me for doing it to your face. Grow up, lad. Should you fancy yourself a match, I would grind you to powder for the sport and nary skip a beat, you self righteous guttersnipe.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:23
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
RJ - Did you ever see the Dennis Miller sketch about the two kids talking
to each other in the swimming pool?

I am wailing on you right now, RJ.

You are like three conversations behind. I am sparkling and you are
just plodding along with the same old tired plays on Cat and Kitty.
Maybe you're blessed with spirit of the staircase and can come up
with something after we're signed off, or maybe you can have something
already prepared like that sent [sic] of dog urine/Sears suit thing
tonight. Anyway, work on it a little. The three $50 bill thing was't bad,
but it was also stale. Work on some new material, RJ, or hire someone
to write it for you.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:23
RJ For Mike Sheller>(For Mike Sheller):
Qh Yea....Nubile daughters……Yeah, that's it, nubile........and buxom too……..


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:17
RJ Even makes me wonder>(Even makes me wonder):
Earl - Just in one of my post apocalypse, beware of the triple 6s routine. Next time, I promise to write of sugar plums fairies, daffodils, and gumdrops, but not tonight.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:14
RJ Hep Hep Hep catgut>(Hep Hep Hep catgut):
Quick!!! Hepcat kitty bozo boy.... Do you hear a noise in the back yard? You'd better check It out. In your case, I think CDC stands for a Cretin's Dearth of Credibility. Grow up kitty cat crybaby, your whining is tiresome and the amount of energy expended on you so far, has exceeded your gross worth for all time, non nobis te deum. Indulge in your petty paranoias but don't look into the mirror. If you ever remove your self righteous lenses,. you might hate, or at least laugh at what you see. A fragile ego such as yours cannot not survive such a revelation. Goodnight Gritty Kitty lad, may your hep purrs keep you good comfort, for here, you have graduated to insignificance. See ya.........


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
RJ @23:54: Jeeeez. I think that one went from simple mellowdrama to extreme artistic license. ....... Now RJ, relax and please give us some idea of the quality of your dreams. ...... ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:13
friend@last intheaireverywhere>(intheaireverywhere):
hepc: not to worry. i wouldn't dream of blowing your cover on the eve of our nation's birth. enjoy. cul8tr.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:13
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Friend - I plugged It's golden into the anagram generator.
Here is what came back:

TED LOGS IN

Of course, to be fair, here is what also came back:
Ogden Silt
Dole Sting
End Gilt So
Ted Long Is
Solid Gent
Old Signet
Dot is Glen
Dot Single


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:13
D.A. whoa>(whoa):
Puetz:

A little deeper reading into the car sales numbers would reveal that the reason that sales were down was because of the strikes in May. Not enough cars were produced to sell. Production runs are now gearing up which will kick the economy higher still in the second half.

To look at falling soybean prices and conclude that the world is heading for deflation is stretching it quite a bit. The value of commodities in predicting inflation and deflation is to look at them from the demand side. Supply shocks, either positive or negative are not at all correlated with long run economics, but are local to the markets traded. Just as $240 Palladium was not a harbinger of hyperinflation neither are Nov beans at 5.85 a sign of impending deflation. By anyones measure worldwide growth is now at a 10 year high. That this is about to roll over into deflation with no exogenous shock would be more than just unusual. The inflation which is happening here in the good old USA is primarily in the service sector of the economy so it is harder to measure and easier to distort.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:11
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
If a commodities trader sold wheat and bought gold would that
make him Rumplestiltskin?


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:07
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Paul Smith - Thanks for your support. Some people on this thread
( including me ) would question the politeness of ALL of my posts, however.

Ron - I don't believe I ever indicated I was a medical student anymore.
I think you picked that up from my attackers.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:06
friend@last intheaireverywhere>(intheaireverywhere):
hepc: think on it my friend. it's golden.


Date: Thu Jul 03 1997 00:01
Amnesty love that Jennifer Warnes>(love that Jennifer Warnes):
How about a laugh? Take a look at my home page http://www.cbl.com.au/
Yep, thats me on the right letting all the gold flow out my pan.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:58
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES GROW STRONGER: Deflation is rapidly taking over. Commodity prices continue to decline as measured by the CRB Index. Adding to the pressure in the likelihood of an economic downturn soon. Retail sales declined during March, April, and May. During June, the downturn may have intensified. Knight-Ridder reports: General Motors today reported June US auto sales 16.7% below the year-ago period. Domestic truck sales dropped 7.8%.... Those results were surprisingly dismal, even for the most pessimistic of analysts.

Commenting on GM's sales, economist James Padinha said: Sure you could get a sense they were bleak, but not this bad. This is the worst month for GM since at least 1992 [as the economy was emerging from recession].

A collapsing, deflationary economy will surely send stocks crashing one day very soon. How much longer will it take investors and speculators to see the financial quick-sand surronding their feet


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:57
D.A. A.friendly.answer>(A.friendly.answer):
To To:

I know very little about the HK real-estate market except that it is in a speculative frenzy. I do not know if it is like Japan was in the late 80's where the whole debt structure was built upon this asset. If so, and the new powers kick out the legs, more than the real estate market may come tumbling down.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:57
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
2weeks: I get a probability of about 0.5 that nothing of that magnitude will happen for the next 25 yrs or so. The exogenous comments others have made here are good ones, agreed? For instance, the runnups in '79, '83, and '88 weren't associated with anything as calamitous as the Great Wars.

Okay, everyone. Let's let go of each others throats.

Hepcat: When my wife was in med school, she didn't have time for any extracurricular activities. How much time have you spent on Kitco tonight? Don't you have homework or something? Besides, how can you work for a govermental agency AND go to medical school at the same time? Can't imagine . . . unless you don't do ANYTHING on the job and just study.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:55
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Cherokee - Whatever. You're gone from noisome to just plain boring.

Friend - Man, I feel like rookie agent Clarice. I've blown if from the first
sentence. How about this one: Why do I feel like this is a phone
conversation that requires me to keep you on the line for a specified
amount of time
Or this one:
Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation in which my role is to
keep you on the line for a specific duration of time

Cherokee - Are you keeping up? We've switched topics.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:55
friend@last intheaireverywhere >(intheaireverywhere ):
hepc: next time you pass a picture of don hopkins, genuflect, and all is forgiven. and understood.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:54
RJ Enough of this new era stuff>(Enough of this new era stuff):
These are hard times in the gold pits, brutal mornings stretch into vicious afternoons that lead to apocalyptic closes. The worm is out of the tunnel, the hog has indeed turned. Fresh new shorts every hour to sell these once thriving demi-gods into blathering sodomites. And where is the mercy? From whence relief? Shall they loose it all and ride the snake back into the hole? Even the bowels of the Beast contract in horror at the mere mention of digesting these black and bleak souls who have traded any hopeless chance of everlasting paradise for a bottle of cheap gin and a three dollar whore. As they sink into the alley grime and pass out with the sent of reckless sex and dog urine lighting their spines into fire, they wonder where it all went so dastardly wrong. Why would faithful souls be treated thus? Now, with a bitter laugh of joyless glee, the gods descend and devour the precious little left of their wretched souls, forever stealing peace, goodwill, and charity, leaving in their stead the souls of gold traders caught by an angry and vengeful bear beast whose claws rake their hearts and rend all remaining stalwart faith. Next, to wake in a cruel morning’s dew, they brush the old jujubes, toothpicks, and cigarette butts from their cheap Sears suits, tighten their $12 ties into sick and twisted knots, to then start a new day in the pits with faith fresh anew that the gods may spare them a day like last.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:52
To DA (a friendly question)>((a friendly question)):
What do you think about the HK real estate market? It seems to be way
overpriced now that China rules HK. Do you think business ( and residential ) will start to move to mainland China? Big differential in real estate and business costs. Something to think about.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:48
cherokee @center-for-dummy-control>(@center-for-dummy-control):
johnny-hep-rat-----

to speak is one thing,
to threaten is another.

you see there ARE differences, if you look closely.
no threats have been issued, nor will they. ( by me )
YOU are threatining now. have your gov't buddies
subponea kitco and find out who is causing you
such angst. it is not i. i will laugh in your
face---hahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahah-
there, now that was not so bad was it? being
laughed at is part of growing up. just look
at imo, and looooong gone! they elicited a plethura
of hilarity. you have the same distinction.
FYI, the circus IS hiring clowns you know.

cdc = center for democratic conundrums

cherokee!; ) protector of human frailty, and FREE SPEECH!!!!!




Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:44
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Friend - LOL. I'm not nervous, as I had this conversation with Bart a few
months ago. I didn't know how best to phrase that first sentence.

Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation for which I have to keep
you on the line for a specified time? seemed a little too formal.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:41
friend@last intheaireverywhere>(intheaireverywhere):
hepc: why do you add prepositions onto sentence ends when nervous?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:39
nailz IGNORE......>(IGNORE......):
REGULARS......IS there a reason why you cannot ignore a fool when they appear on this thread Is it not obvious to you that appearances of these types who wish to see their names often in captions at any expense will post whatever it takes If they want to see their names in the captions, then let them post something of significance....There is plenty of room here for anyone with an opinion, just don't go out of your way to pi&& everyone off....

I don't care if someone agrees with me or not...Well, I really do. as a disagreement provides food for thought.......Otherwise ignore them and go to the next post...IMHOAFWIW dept.....


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:38
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Hey friend - Why do I feel like this is a phone conversation
that I have to keep you on the line for a certain amount of time
for? You and me are an awful lot alike...Tell me about what
drives you. Do you ever yearn?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:36
D.A. hong.kong,china>(hong.kong,china):
All:

Reading the newswires tonight I came across a story where it was written that one of the high priorities of the new governors of HK was to end the real-estate speculation and the squeeze on property. If this game is removed from the casino perhaps our Asian friends will revert to their more traditional gaming haven, namely gold.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:32
friend@last intheaireverywhere>(intheaireverywhere):
hepc: there was never any doubt in my mind that you were on clifton road. where else?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:31
D.A. old.tunes>(old.tunes):
Earl:

You just don't know what you've got till its gone.....


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:27
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
RJ - The CDC is the Centers for Disease Control.
The DMV is the Department of Motor Vehicles.






Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:26
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
Re: Dr. Kevorkian ( prescription@4-U ) ...maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide you with a large caliber handgun to do the job. If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here. Any volunteers? AND... General ( to Dr. Kevorkian ) : As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the
trick?

Sorry but... DEFINITELY NOT FUNNY !

I personally have visited this site for over a year now. I usually enjoy seeing postings from the regulars. The other day we had lots of laughs with such subjects as What right has CBS to sell gold ? etc. Unfortunately some postings have become downright rude and the above are most definitely threatening.

I believe that we should all be able to voice our opinions without being belittled or threatened. As regulars know, I'm a goldbug at heart. I've lost tens of thousands since last September. I come to the site to get a feeling of where the market's at from others. It seems to me that John has been very polite in his postings. He doesn't deserve this type of treatment any more than you or I.

Let's face it - we've all been wrong about gold ( most of us anyway ) . We would have done better to have been invested in blue chips over the last 4 - 5 years instead of being so damn contrary ! I certainly wish that I had done so - then I would have plenty of cash now to invest in gold futures.

Let's treat each other with respect so that we can enjoy the site.

Paul


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:26
ACW >():
B.T. ( Big Trader ) Your mystery is solved, many of us thought you were a bull. But today you secret was found out. You won the 3rd race at Hollywood Park, this afternoon, using your handle B.T.'s Gold. So fellow Kitcoists, he's not full of BS, it's HS.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:20
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Cherokee - Then I will gladly refer the security division to you.
What is your telephone number again? Standing the heat is one
thing. Specific threats about hollow-point bullets in the age of
heightened security concerns due to the Saudi/OK city/Atlanta
bombings and terrorist activities directed against government
workers are quite another. I'm not trying to scare you, Cherokee.
I'm giving you a very strong hint that it would be a good idea to
stop posting taunts unless you have a specific reason to want to
continue to draw attention to yourself.

I work in a government institution, Cherokee. What do I have
to do to convince you that baiting me on this matter is not in
your best interest?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:19
cherokee @waaaaaaaahhhhhhh>(@waaaaaaaahhhhhhh):
imo--

YOUR readers i'm sure you are more than anyone can imagine!
glad you have YOUR herd here with you. why would you find it necessary
to inform THEM, HERE? if THEY follow your predictions in YOUR
newsletter, why write to THEM here? if you are so sure of your-
self, and loaded with the OBVIOUS credentials, why not use your
real name? if YOUR readers know who you are, why should'nt we?
yes, you have much to hide, including your reputation.

cherokee!; ) hacker-of-the-wackers.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:18
RJ He He He>(He He He):
RE: john ( hepcat@med.unc.edu ) :17:35 - Yo, hepcat baby boy. I thought you had a familiar style. You work at a government agency you say? Weren't you the guy who renewed my car registration at the DMV? OOOOOOOOOHHHHHH, an investigation..............He He......


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:13
Cmax @Margarita Island, Venezuela>(@Margarita Island, Venezuela):
Tensions are running v e r y high.......must be the signal that gold has really reached bottom.
We should remember that we all are but guests here on KITCO, and we should behave as such.
Itsy bitsy trader: In regards to Venezuelan courts, believe nothing of what your read. This is the world's second most judicially insecure country ( I think right after Nigeria ) . I was in Bolivar state last week....nothing to indicate any change there.

Can't take the suspense......blew off a big barril of dry powder today. ( Everytime I do that....price keeps dropping ) ......now if I could only unload those other Caribbean beachfront condos....will finance in gold...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:10
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
D.A.: If the apparent short squeeze in the PGMs comes to pass, it should have some effect on the remainder of the PMs. Perhaps traders of gold and silver would begin to feel a keen interest in inventory versus the paper overhang.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:09
RJ More?>(More?):
cherokee - Amen.

John hairball kitty suture boy: He He HE HE. Are you trying to be funny? I hope so, because you are a riot.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:08
nailz 2WEEKS, SPEED, IMO>(2WEEKS, SPEED, IMO):
AND ALL...I wish to go on record as expressing my opinion that NO spectacular ( EXOGENOUS ) event is necessary to cause the start of a bull market in the metals....PLEASE mark me on record as saying that no spectacular event is necessary.....BEEN THERE, DONE THAT, more than once.....Sure, later into the move, reasons will be expressed as to why, mentions will be made of news that was ignored, etc. Metals are markets !! Markets get gyrated.....You must keep in mind that bears drive the markets as low as they will go. Bulls drive the markets as high as they will go. You are experiencing a very normal part of the cycle. The other extreme of the cycle will show its self to you one day. WHEN WHO KNOWS ? I think you will see the signs that an upwards move will begin in a short time......

Mr. IMO....If you are trying to say you are the author of the &*^%&^**& International Newsletter, I would like to point out that I lost mid to upper 5 figures on your crap in 1979-81....If you have gotten any better at picking markets, I invite you to prove it to me. My past experience is that all you do is bleed your subscribers....IMHO only and not designed to influence anyone else....


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:04
RJ Not another one>(Not another one):

IMO - 19:50 @ Guiness Book of World Records.

WOW! That’s the first time I have seen anyone admit that. Perhaps you will gain another entry, let’s say…. For the biggest whopper. The only way gold will hit $500 this year is if every ounce comes with three $50 bills. I breathlessly await your next revelations. July 12 you say? Hmmmm.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:04
Amnesty @ hot under the rib cage>(@ hot under the rib cage):
Hey Johny hepcat dude. Go play in you sandpit and learn how to be a
real sport. Every Doc dude I ever went to made me chronically ill so take
a hike in to yesterday and stop using hepcat handle. Why arnt you learning your western ways of making people better instead of raiding
mummy's handbag for more cash to fund your extracurricula activities.
Let me read more of your nana na na na letters and I might end up spewing
some real heavy duty bile your way.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 23:01
cherokee @hardeee-harr-harr>(@hardeee-harr-harr):
johnny-hep-kitty---

thanks for the re-post. i am quite amused by all the good
you seem to be able to bring out in people!! how do you
do it?

if you think that referring me to some security division,
because i find bemusement at your expense, will intimidate
me, you are quite mistaken. i threaten no ones' person,
only their sensibilities. now you have offended me by
turning humor into illegal activities! ( dnc )

this is the problem with liberals. when something is said
that offends them, they spin it into charachter assassination,
or say it is illegal. the web is a global frying pan that
cares not whom is being cooked, all that is needed is some
meat. you are the proverbial low cut of beef, simmering
in over-cooked gravy, with the fire turned up high.
get out of the frying pan, if you cannot stand the heat.

hey geff--where you been lately?

cherokee!; ) hacker-of-the-weine-wackers----------------




Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:57
panda @>(@):
D.A. -- Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:56
D.A. at.the.buffet>(at.the.buffet):
John:

Believe it or not, we own not a single ounce, paper or otherwise of the yellow metal. I own some small cap Canadian mining stocks that are in need of resuscitation, but fortuneately the one large position that I have in this area has managed a mighty gain this year due to the possibility of a large expansion of one of their mines. I've just been trying to get a little action here so that I could call myself a gold bug. It appears that I may soon be forced out into that cold cruel world of option buying, for my patience with this decline is running out.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:49
D.A. re.tocom.pa>(re.tocom.pa):
Panda:

The Japanese futures markets are somewhat bizarre. All of the trading is done in contracts way in the future. We trade a number of commodities over there like red beans, and cotton yarn, where we routinely take positions in contracts more than a year out because they are the only liquid ones. I have no idea how people can hedge paper positions in the physical market because of the extreme time mismatches. The general feeling about the Japanese Pa market is that there are a lot of speculative shorts which are hedged by the commission houses with short sales of the physical metal. The paper contracts against these hedges apparently do not begin coming due until the fall. From what I hear from my metals desk, there is still very little physical metal about and trading is extremely thin. I think that supplies are just being drawn down and rationed until there will literally be none left. Barring big time supply from Russia, I still believe we will see a massive squeeze as the Sept contract comes due. All the physical metal that was put out on loan at usurous rates in June will come due along with the Sept delivery. The world has so much cash and so little palladium.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:42
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Looks like another uneventfull day on the markets today. Instead of clicking on refresh I might go down the back of my house and fish. Ahhhh, Brisbane, Australia - 22 degrees cent' and not a cloud in the sky. Who cares what the nasty gold spot is doing eh!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:35
tarnished @durges in Dinghy>(@durges in Dinghy):
WOW!! Surprizingly upbeat here, with Au at these levels I expected, on my return, to find a decidedly downcast mood here, hahaha must be TED's absence. ABN is heading pos. as we speak ( type ) .


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:34
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Any rally of substance needs to push gold above or near 340. XAU should wave between 95-98 until something gives anyone reason to be outstanding.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:30
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
D.A. - Yeah, well, it was just kinda off the top of my head.
Besides, after all this, $345 would be to you what the dessert portions in a
chintzy buffet line are to me - Not enough to satisfy, just enough
to make a guy angry. Hope you get to $400. Don't worry about
responding if we ever get to $326. The self-satisfaction will be more
than enough, and all of Kitco will find me quite intolerable for a few hours.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:18
panda @50 ton short position>(@50 ton short position):
D.A.-- What do you make of this story, particularly the comment on the palladium short position on the TOCOM.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/y0023_5.html

And if Reuters changes this story again.... I copied it!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:18
2weeks Reasoned_responses_welcome>(Reasoned_responses_welcome):
Speed Ron Scott: Points well made. Interdependence of the potential calamitous events was discounted due to the relative unlikelihood of each, as well as the wildly approximate nature of the estimations in general.

But I pose this question to the forum: Over what term ( starting at the present, in number of years ) is there a 50/50 chance of a calamity affecting North America on the order of the US Civil War, either world war, or the 1930s depression?

For starters, I say, 20.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:15
WW @New England>(@New England):
SPEED makes good points except the sellers are not in the cash mkt but are Merrill and others in the paper mkt. The paper mkt has a surplus of gold while he physical mkt is at a continuing deficit. This will grow bigger as the paper gold mkt drives prices to un economic levels for many mines. The paper boys are forcing the physical boys and girls to become more aggressive in their selling. It may not continue much longer. Just like the paper Merrill probably uses in stock index futures to rescue the mkt the opposite is true for gold.That we are/ will reach unimaginable imbalances in the financial system soon is key. Without the current imbalances consumer confidence would be low as: there could be no positive spin w/o higher mkts and thus more financial defaults occuring would appropriately unmask the false goldilocks debt economy. Only crashing in financial wealth will make people believe. Back in the USSR was a great parody, useful today vis a vis our financial situation!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 22:09
D.A. a.wing.and.a.prayer>(a.wing.and.a.prayer):
All:

To those of you long common stocks of the non-gold variety, sleep well. A few minutes back we laid in a fine sacrifice to the market gods in the Globex session. I hope it will be as well received as our last offering many moons ago. If our offer is looked upon favorably, then those all knowing and beneficent deities which rule the fortunes of we mortal traders, will rocket the SP to new heights, but also deign to help some of our other positions. Because we have a rather large position in silver options, I would be ever so humble if a small rally of perhaps $2.00 were to ensue.

As an aside, I just got off the phone with our night metals desk and had an interesting conversation with its head. He relayed to me that the gold market was so bad that he had no buy orders on the books tonight at any price. It seems that the fear level is about as high as its going to get. The way the market is set up when the reversal happens, it will be big and fast. Those who want to get long will be unsure at first and then nervous at buying into a short covering rally which might reverse at any moment. A small pullback will ensue only to be met with another wave up covering and buying. The rapidly rising lease rates, combined with the pathetic sentiment and the total and complete absence of buyers is a flamable mixture.

John: Sorry to have to refuse your last offer, its not even remotely fair. I will however bet you a small piece of humble pie that there is no $325 in 1997. I will eat graciously if I am wrong and will write a fitting tribute to the brilliance of your analysis. If not, I expect something similar in return. Best of Luck.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:58
Speed @cabal of gold shorts>(@cabal of gold shorts):
Telecaster: Your points are well-taken. Mr. Kaplan is my kind of stout-heart! But to the purpose at hand: If the primary players currently shorting gold are few in number and well financed, then they will power down the price of gold in a disciplined, lengthy ( several months ) campaign to wear out the market. They aren't looking for the kind of short term profits to be gained just before a holiday. Think how breath taking it would be to defeat the market, forcing the price below a 10 year low. Producers will sell at low prices just to stay open. Perhaps these few players are buying options along the way. At some point, they step back in and buy all the bullion they want from a quivering, defeated market and when/if the price moves up, their options double the win. The market is already so battered, that every rally is clobbered by fresh selling from producers trying to stay in business. The banks don't care. They have more gold than they know what to do with. The commercial players are buying, slowing the decline. Gold is cheap. Only time will tell.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:51
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
To WW: Is timing everything? Do you expect stocks to close 90% lower the same day that gold runs up to $1,000? My thought is that there is far more risk trying to pick tops/bottoms than there is in missing the the beginning of a reversal.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:43
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
I'm so certin the spot is about to turn in a big way that I may sell my dog ( spot ) and buy some gold!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:38
WW @New England>(@New England):
Being a Liberal ( comparatively ) is easy next to being a goldbug. The indignation and treatment you have to endure leads me to believe that our condition is immutable and thus should be protected under the civil rights laws just as any other suspect classification such as race, sex, national origin or any other immutable characteristic. The TEST in the the Supreme Court is the immutability of the characteristic. Given golds performance and the continued resilience of this crowd/ I think that there is even money we can get protection under the civil rights laws as a minority which is discriminated against with respect to a characteristic we can not change. Comments?
This has potentially profound implications my fellow monority victims!!! Say the word and we go for it!!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:37
ted butler @ speed>(@ speed):
Re; your 20:55 - Agree completely. I would just add guessing the price is secondary to guessing the maxium amount the specs can short. Guess that, and you've effectively got the bottom, whether it turns immediately or not ( I guess it will ) . The fact the specs are record net short gold and silver ( a guess that will be revealed in the COT on Monday, would suggest they're there or real close to being full-up.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:33
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Cherokee -

Wed Jul 02 1997 08:57
Dr. Kevorkian ( prescription @ 4-U )
Johnny Hep man...I have something that'll cure that
nasty bug of yours. A dose of cyanide. Since you're only a
med STUDENT and the REAL doctors won't let you play
with REAL chemicals, maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide
you with a large caliber handgun to do the job.
If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here.
Any volunteers?

Wednesday Jul 02 1997 10:19
General ( to Dr. Kevorkian ) :

As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped
with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the trick?

These messages were written by the same person.

Cherokee, if you find this so amusing as to make light of it, perhaps you would
like to contact the division of LAN support or the head of security here at the CDC.
The telephone number is 404-639-3311. I'm sure they would be very
happy to update you on the investigation, and point out how seriously threats
on government employees lives are handled.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:29
telecaster @The Specs>(@The Specs):
Speed - If the prospect of being short over a long holiday weekend does not prove incentive enough for the shorts to take some profits, I wonder, what's it gonna take? They appear to be well-saddled, and set for the ride. Without meaning any disrespect to Mr. Kaplan, is there any event short of the successfull transmutation of lead into gold that might cause his indicator to deviate from from strongly bullish ?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:23
IMO @Cherokee blowin smoke up his...>(@Cherokee blowin smoke up his...):
To Cherocreep-

In the future, disregard my comments as they are not intended for you. I in turn will continue to disregard your meaningless mutterings.

My advice is directed to my readers that visit this site and not necessarily to anyone posting on this board. But I can assure you, many will listen once my projection comes to fruition. You can be sure there will be many interested in understanding my methodology when the event unfolds as described.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:20
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
The moral of the story is get your history books out and BUY BUY BUY. Not because you will make me money ( you may ) but because gold is an excellent buy even if it continues to fall from here!!! COME ON..... $331 YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING... PROCRACINATING WILL ONLY LOSE YOU MONEY AT THIS PRICE


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:16
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
One day somebody somewhere is going to need to buy some gold and the next guy thinks he will get in before the price goes up because he also needs gold in the future. A couple of traders look at each other and say We may not see this price for five years again, even though I hate gold it represents a bargin to be had. They also start buying! Wow gold up $20


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:08
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
2weeks: We can't multiply the probabilities because the events aren't independent. But you are absolutely correct to believe that goldbugs ARE NOT counting on some single preposterously unlikely event to come along and save their hides, as many of gold's detractors have claimed.

The risk of war breaking out in the next few years between some particular country X and some other country Y may be small, but the risk of war breaking out somewhere is much greater. And the chance that war will break out somewhere OR that we'll see a sharp correction in the Dow is much greater yet, etc. Additionally, we shouldn't calculate these probabilities in a vacuum. We have to condition them on current world events: A sky-high Dow, an extremely heavy debt load, escalating international tension, etc.

I think the chance of something untoward happening -- but nonetheless something good for gold -- in the next few years is much greater than dreamy-creamy market bulls would have us believe. I haven't done the formal calculations. I can't do them. There is no way to estimate probabilities for some of these things. For instance, what's the probability that a terrorist will get his hands on a nuclear or biological weapon? There's no way to estimate that. We certainly can't base the estimate on the frequency of similar instances in the past.

Anyway, I agree with you. I think the chances are greater than fifty-fifty, perhaps as great as sixty-forty, or even seventy-thirty -- enough, in any event, for me to place my bets. Off my soapbox.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:08
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
You got to love it when gold shares are going UP when gold spot is going down ( except this morning in Australia ) !!!!!!!!!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:06
vronsky NEW SEARCH FUNCTION at GOLD-EAGLE - Find What You Want QUICKLY>(NEW SEARCH FUNCTION at GOLD-EAGLE - Find What You Want QUICKLY):
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http://www.gold-eagle.com



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 21:03
Billd @gold.up>(@gold.up):
August gold up one buck...spot up .80...at least it in the right direction....!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:55
Speed @home>(@home):
2weeks: The current downdraft in gold is caused IMHO by speculators. I am hitch hiking on Steve Kaplans research and thinking as well as the Captain @ the Privateer. Once the shorts decide to cover the price will go the other way. No exogenous event is necessary. The dow doesn't have to crash or even correct. I talked to one of the commercial boys today and he thinks this scenario is true and picked the range of 327-328 as the turning point. No BT, no BS, just an opinion. We keep trying to pick a time and instead should be looking at a price range where it is so hard to short that the shorts will quit and go the other way.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:25
cherokee @WHERE-O-WHERE>(@WHERE-O-WHERE):
hep-kitty----

where is THE THREAT

yes, i have some cat-nip!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:18
2weeks Weighing_in>(Weighing_in):
There appears to be a tentative consensus here that an exogenous event is necessary for a gold turnaround. Statistically, the likelihood of such an event can be calculated by multiplying together the odds of all such events _not_ happening ( over some term ) , and subtracting from 100%. Let's make our term 5 years ( which is really too short ) Let's look at the odds that:

10 ) The Year 2000 problem will not cause significant economic dislocation: 95%. I work on large computer programs. They are harder to fix than estimated, 70% of the time.

9 ) All 40,000 of the nuclear weapons in the world will sleep through the next five years: 98%.

8 ) No single, or set of, climatic event ( s ) will have a severe impact on the world's markets: 97%

7 ) No subtle misfiring ( a la 1929 ) in the world economy will send it into a tailspin: 96%

6 ) No world or near-world conflict will evolve: 95%

5 ) No local conflict ( e.g., Middle East ) will arise with global economic impact: 94%

4 ) No calamitous truly earth-exogenous event will occur ( asteroid, aliens ( sorry to even mention that ) ) : 99.9%

3 ) No world-tragic event which we could not imagine or foresee will occur: 99%.

2 ) The world debt crisis will not reify: 93%

1 ) No other comparable event/scenario will transpire: 83%.

If you like, go through and put in your own odds, them multiply it all together. With mine, it is 95*98*97*96*95*94*99.9*99*93*83 = 59.1%.

Thus, about a 60% chance of avoiding crisis in any 5-year period. Maybe I am extreme - let's say it is not 60% but an 80% chance of no crisis in 5 years, which _perhaps_ aligns more with history. ( That would be 20 events, each 99% sure not to happen, by the way ) . Then, over a 15-year period, there is an .8*.8*.8 = 51.2%.

So, an even chance that in the next 15 years the doomsayers will be right.

Of course, not every catastrophe bodes well for gold prices, much less gold stocks. But I believe it is very arguable that the stabilizing effects of communication and technology are offset by other factors which must be taken into consideration.

Reasoned response appreciated.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:17
cherokee @questions-everywhere>(@questions-everywhere):
imo---

is there any possibility that you have relatives with initials
bt

all the info you've given leads me astray, and makes one wonder,
why you should predicate your prediction with them. do these facts ( pseudo? ) qualify you as one to follow with investments?
no one can ( or will ) prove or dis-prove the validity of your
braggadocio. ( facts ) if you are WHO and WHAT you say you are,
then come out of the shadows and stand on high ground. if you
are a slime eating lawyer, ( sorry tort ) or a broker, just say
i have green slimy teeth. it will be ok. look at hep-kitty!!?!?
supposed to have 9 of something




Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:13
Ron Swinging for the Fences>(Swinging for the Fences):
gold up .30 and silver up .03 ( @tumbleweed plaza ) : Please, please write some naked Dec 400 calls for me. The bid is 10. A hundred of them would do just fine. Quick way for you to make a thousand bucks.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:10
Jennifer Warnes @ these prices>(@ these prices):
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:07
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout):
If this KRY bet plays out, I probably will go out a buy a shoebox full of Silver Maple Leafs ( or two or five ) . Crossing my fingers and toes!

-- report by VHeadline/VENews © Editor Roy S. Carson --

Caracas: Wednesday, July 2, 1997 -- Crystallex International
Corporation ( KRY ) ViP Richard Marshall says he can neither confirm or
deny exclusive VHeadline/VENews source information that senior
executives of his company held meetings in Vancouver last Thursday with
ditto from Placer Dome in an attempt by Placer to arrive at an equitable
arrangement ahead of KRY's AGM.

Highly credible sources in London have told VHeadline/VENews that
meetings have continued into this week with the Venezuelan government
heaping on added pressure for both sides to reach an accommodation
parlayed at 40/40/20 with Placer/Crystallex/CVG respectively.

KRY's Marshall says the company is open to any offer that is in its
shareholders' best interests but likewise refuses to comment on discussions
with other major-leaguers, among whom we're told Barrick Gold has been
in conversation with the company for the last two weeks with what's
described as a substantially more attractive offer than what Placer's
supposedly putting on the table. Marshall likewise refuses to confirm or deny
that meetings with Barrick have taken place.

What's for sure is that once the Venezuelan Supreme Court's 4th ruling is
announced in Crystallex's favor, there's going to be a bidding war for
Crystallex in which Placer ( despite its size ) appears to be on the
downside.

With 100% of the Las Cristinas 4 & 6 properties legally under
its control, Crystallex International is naturally expecting
Placer and the Venezuelan Guayana Corporation ( CVG ) to
drop out of the claim completely.

CVG Ynaty will most probably be forced to kiss goodbye to the his
presidency of that state-owned organization, but there'll be few around
to shed crocodile tears at his demise. He's got his sights set on
becoming Governor of the State of Bolivar, but he's working up a
mighty opposition even to those plans.

VHeadline/VENews source in London says that whatever's going to
happen within the next few days it's most probably going to be the
announcement of a friendly takeover proposal by top contenders like
Barrick but with Placer Dome relegated to second base unless they put
more icing on the cake than they've come with to date.

At $100 an ounce and estimates of 9 million, 15 million, 20+ million
and 25 million ( depending on who you're talking to! ) it would appear
the stock market sky's the limit!

Crystallex's Marshall says the trouble is that Placer's never
taken off the boxing gloves... which is tantamount to saying
that unlike a Tyson-type street-brawl -- which it might well
come to -- the ear's definitely going to be given to the most
friendly, the most sympathetic and the most profitable
contender...



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 20:01
gold up .30 and silver up .03 @tumbleweed plaza>(@tumbleweed plaza):
Gold up .30 and silver up .03. This is it, this is it, the big rally. Big big big rally! HAHAH. Are their any goldbugs left?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 19:50
IMO @Honolulu Office>(@Honolulu Office):
As posted earlier this past spring, gold is ready to soar!

On July 12th, gold is ready to begin its long march upward. This will be an explosive move up! We will see $500 gold this year.

I am presently accumulating calls on gold and adding to my platinum calls as well. I am buying selected precious metals stocks I know will benefit greatly from the move up.

As some know from my prior posts last summer and fall, I encouraged investors to begin accumulating platinum positions as well as the purchase of Stillwater Mining. I am currently unable to explain my reasons for my bullish forcast for legal and ethical reasons; however, in the near future, I will share my methodolgy with you as well as who I am. I can tell you that I manage a very significant amount of capital. I have an international newsletter, and I am listed in the Guiness Book of World Records. I have offices in London, Zurich, Tokyo, New York & Honolulu.

I have been right alot more than I have been wrong - that's is why I am very wealthy. I had no money as a young man. But I have been wrong before.

If I am wrong about this date, then I am looking for February 1998 as the next lift off date for gold. Keep some powder dry just in case.

Be ready friends!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 19:28
cherokee @which-one?>(@which-one?):
hey hep-kitty---

how is the deed to be done? catnip? a big dog? old age?

have'nt read THE THREAT yet. got to your post and HAD
to ask the question!

wait, it just came across the horizon on the back of a
smoke signal----it reads----hoof and mouth disease does
the trick.

it had to be something!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 19:21
vronsky ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)>(ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)):
Market Maven report rings with logic & clarity. We have a “Goldilocks Economy” coexisting with a “Vampire Financial State.” Steve Puetz Letter:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html




Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 19:21
telecaster @Clinton / Hashimoto - the rematch>(@Clinton / Hashimoto - the rematch):
Tyson- LOL ! I don't know, but if he does, I'll pay to watch !!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 19:03
PB ...>(...):
Tensions are running pretty high around here. How about we all make a circle and say Om.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:48
WW @New England>(@New England):
This lower the gold goes the better complacency is a little worrisome. With the commitment of Traders this positive and the funds very short it is amazing the decline has continued this persistently. Conversely the stk mkt continues to flourish in spite of near record bullishness and the little guy getting long the S&P futures while commercials get short. Does the contrarianism mean any thing when heard instinct is in full fore ie buy stox and dont buy metals or sell what you have. Timing is the issue!! Comments?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:38
Ron Confession>(Confession):
Earl: Oh, dear, I've misled you into thinking that I wrote that physics lecture. I only WISH that I were clever enough to come up with something like that, just as I only wish gold would go up to $9,000/oz. Alas, I found it on usenet. But since you asked for more, here's one that may make you chuckle.

A Scotsman and a Jew went to a restaurant. After a hearty meal, the
waitress came by with the inevitable check. To the amazement of all,
the Scotsman was heard to say, I'll pay it! and he actually did.

The next morning's newspaper carried the news item:

JEWISH VENTRILOQUIST FOUND MURDERED IN BLIND ALLEY.

Has Tort already told that one? If there are any ventriloquists on Kitco, will you please, please, make Alan Greenspan say something in public that'll goose gold?

%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
The only difference between genius and stupidity is that genius is limited.
--unknown

Wife: a former sweetheart.
--H.L. Mencken ( 1880-1956 )

I can't take a well-tanned person seriously.
--Cleveland Amory

If the world were a logical place, men would ride sidesaddle.
--Rita Mae Brown
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:30
Speed @>(@):
Donald: I like your attitude! The tough part of this drop is over. The roller coaster is going our way again soon. The lower gold goes, the better the buy.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:27
Mike Sheller I want to make it perfectly clear...>(I want to make it perfectly clear...):
Re my last post: JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES is the socialist of which I speak. A philosophy to me too vile to speak.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:24
Mike Sheller trivia triviata>(trivia triviata):
VRONSKY: I believe it was the Maynard who also said In the long run we're all dead. As a socialist I cannot consider him MY pal, tho I do certainly find rational his rationale.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:24
Impartial @George>(@George):
George: No problem. Thanks for accepting it in the spirit in which it was intended !!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:23
Donald @Home>(@Home):
All: You can still sell the Dow and pocket 23.46 ounces of the yellow stuff, 1680 of the silver. I hope the recent top of 23.5 holds. We should know tomorrow. It is STILL the best deal you could get since 1966.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:17
George S. Cole gold stocks hold up>(gold stocks hold up):
Impartial: Thanks for the grammar lesson!

Gold stocks held up pretty well today considering the smash in bullion. Perhaps this is because short-selling speculators, not CB sales or producer hedging, are reponsible for the entire drop according to Steve Kaplan. Perhaps some smart stock players sense this situation cannot persist much longer.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:09
mikeharry Canadian Tropics>(Canadian Tropics):
It is hot hot hot in sweltering Canada, 30 degree below cold is but a distant memory. A stranger walking around up here now would never in a million years figure this place goes into deep freeze for 5 whole months.

If the US stock market were Canada, this is Indian Summer in late October. Gold is your moth balled fur coat in the cedar closet.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 18:02
Tyson @Telecaster>(@Telecaster):
Do you think he'll chew on Bill's ear a bit ?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:55
telecaster blue sky>(blue sky):
Bob- What an interesting analyses. One thing is clear: there is bad blood between Clinton and Hashimoto. I think that Hashimoto felt that he lost face at the G7 on account of this arrogant young upstart, and felt it so deeply that he succumbed to pride and responded angrily, threateningly, emotionally, and revealingly in his public remarks. If he can find an opportunity to get revenge without hurting himself, I believe he will take advantage of it.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Ron: Loved your short physics course. More, more, SVP. .... Now perhaps something more germane. ie, what would happen if we put our Krands into a box and close it tightly. Will they devolve into a really useful element like say, lead or zinc? ....... Or will the cleaning lady steal them? An interesting thought experiment. Eh?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:35
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
It was somewhat chilling to check back in today and find that someone
was actively recruiting volunteers to pump a few slugs into me.

I work at a U.S. government institution, as has been outed here in the past.

Would the person who posted this incredibly sick suggestion please
identify himself, or would you prefer I initiate the process of investigating
what is for all intents and purposes a death threat?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:35
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
It was somewhat chilling to check back in today and find that someone
was actively recruiting volunteers to pump a few slugs into me.

I work at a U.S. government institution, as has been posted here in the past.

Would the person who posted this incredibly sick suggestion please
identify himself, or would you prefer I initiate the process of investigating
what is for all intents and purposes a death threat?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:32
Speed spelling>(spelling):
bare=bear


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:30
WDL @opinions>(@opinions):
I agree with George s. Cole's posting and Andy Smith comments that it will take an EXOGENOUS event, i.e., war, natural or man-made cataclysm
to turn gold around. I still believe that oil, especially long term, will prove and excellent holding. Did anyone notice the tremendous recent rise in oil drilling stock, Schlumbarger? Would love to see gold move back up
( have a significant holding ) , but remain bearish as to present developments.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:26
Impartial @the.blackboard>(@the.blackboard):
George Cole ( Your 16:39 ) : I really love your economics ( seriously ) , and you can educate me on that subject all day long. In case it was my post to Eldorado last night which led you astray ( and not a typo ) , rationale is a noun ( as in he has a rationale for his actions ) . Rational is an adjective ( as in rational financial thought ) . If I am being pedantic, it is only because I do not like to see your rational financial thought diminished by an improper grammatical rationale ( :- ) ) ) !!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:25
Short Bull Bought Platinum>(Bought Platinum):
Is there any place on the internet to follow Platinum futures trading prices after trading is closed in New York?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:18
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
oops, make that june 28 Gold loses lustre for all but the bravest


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:13
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
Selby you asked where did you hear about the a permanent bull market for stocks? I haven't seen this crazy notion anywhere yet. I don't think he meant it that seriously, just the prevailing new investment views. Also See last Saturday's Globe and Mail, June 20, page B20. gold bugs are clinging to 50 year old ideas about gold as an investment etc etc. ( My own views are somewhere in between these two extremes. )


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:07
Speed @>(@):
Gold is going down because the speculators are selling more than the market will bare at a constant price. What happens when the shorts cover?

RJ: When do you cover? In what range? If George Soros covers and starts taking delivery before you do and the price goes back up, will you jump back in and sell? If that's a trade secret, then how about a technical one. Is it increasingly harder or increasingly easier to drive the price down, if you are using leverage to short the market? At what point approximately does the law of diminishing returns cause the game to turn the other way?

If the COT analysis posted here earlier is correct, then the commercial players are buying in anticipation of price going back up. I think this game is about to turn with or without the stock market.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 17:06
Donald @Home>(@Home):
SPEED: What if Japan decided to do its mischief over the long weekend when U.S. markets are closed and they are open? I think we are grasping for straws but.......


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:59
nailz Foreign Money to US Stocks>(Foreign Money to US Stocks):
Some of the stock traders over on AVID talking about how much foreign money is coming in to play the game now.....Oh my goodness....This is getting messier and messier by the day.....


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:41
vronsky JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES>(JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES):
Some Kito-ites today were asking about Keynes Quotations. There are two that stick out in my mind - however, the first is really not a quotation per se, but his reference to gold in the early part of this century as that Barbarous Metal. It is interesting to recall that Barbarous Metal was valued at a mere $20.67 when he uttered the remark. And as we all know it eventually reached $850 a few decades later.

Very apropos relative to the current stock market mania was his comment in late-1927: WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MORE CRASHES IN OUR TIME! Mr. John Maynard Keynes implicitely ( albeit naively ) believed that cycles had become obsolete. IMHO the Wall Street chorus-line is singing the same tune again.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:40
Speed @work>(@work):
So what if two or three big time speculators ( billionaires ) are planning to drive gold down to 325 or thereabouts and then turn around and buy contracts and start taking delivery? If Japan dumps some treasuries to pay for the oil spill, buys some gold too and Mexico needs some dough to clean up the volcano damage, so they sell treasuries. Hey! Gold is going to rally big time. Whoa what time is it? Did I sleep that long? What a dream.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:39
George s. Cole No Hope?>(No Hope?):
Today Andy Smith was quoted as saying there is no hope for gold. The best he can offer is that it may not go down in a straight line. He argues ( correctly in my view ) that it will take an exogenous shock to turn the yellow stuff around. But he cannot conceive of such a shock occurring.

With stock valuations at the highest levels ever and a parabolic stock market bubble roaring ever higher, the fact that someone like this cannot even conceive that this game will ever end, speaks volumes about the extent to which the bubble is eclipsing rationale financial thought. No sign of an end end yet, but when the music stops anybody left standing will be on their way to the poorhouse in record time.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:25
Bob @..blue sky counterpoint>(@..blue sky counterpoint):
I was thinking about the FED's reaction to the Japanese request for higher US rates and YEN/Dollar stabalization in context of today's news that the FED will not increase rates.

What if the FED was looking for a party spoiler ? Don't the Japanese fill that gap nicely ? If the FED needed a scapegoat to reign in the paper Bull the Japanese would be excellant fall-guys.

If the Japs pull the plug on the US BULL by selling-off material amounts of US debt and buying gold and EC currency based securities they will be seen as the party poopers and defray attention from the FED and the US govts 'lazy' affair approach to this historic BULL run. Good copy if anything.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 16:01
telecaster Japan>(Japan):
Bob- Back in May, Sakakibura warned Japanese investors about the prospects for an increase of the yen vs dollar, and consequently, the advisibility of purchasing or holding US debt. I think his comments were meant to direct capital flows back toward Japan, strengthen the yen, and allow Japan to increase interest rates in the second half. Now, in the face of the increasing value of the yen, they apparently feel that they are not making enough on the spread, and would like the US to increase rates to accomodate them, despite the lack of inflationary pressures. I think that Clinton and Rubin told them, if they want to get Japan back on its feet, do as we have done: get competitive, relax central control of business and the economy, and open your markets. Now that they have not gotten their way, they have resorted to threats and blackmail of the only friend they have in this world. I am beginning to believe that the leaders of Japan are a group of dangerous fools and beauracrats who refuse to accept that they are responsible for the problems they have created for themselves, and that they are entitled to relief at the expense of their American slaves. They are playing a game that they cannot win, and I applaud Clinton for not giving sway to their ludicrous impulses, possibly the first issue upon which I agree strongly with the man


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 15:45
Bob @...first shoe drops>(@...first shoe drops):
The FED will not increase rates due to an impending slow-down in the US economy. It is clear that the Japanese have helped finance the US paper Bull...now let's see if the US military will help with a politically sensitive Oil Spill in Tokyo Bay.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 15:11
Bob @...Tokyo Oil Spill, FED Rates, and points of inflexion>(@...Tokyo Oil Spill, FED Rates, and points of inflexion):
Andy Grove ( INTEL Boss ) wrote about points of inflection where change is thinking becomes expedient from factors that are principally out of control.

The Japanese Prime Minister requested the FED to increase rates to justify Japans L-T holdings of US govt debt and to help stabilize YEN/DOLLAR currencies. A recent Oil Spill in Tokyo Bay has been recorded as a National Disaster. The Japanese Prime Minister had requested the assistance of all citizens AND the US military to help with the containment and cleanup.

Should the FED not increase rates or the US military not heed the call for help to clean-up the largest Oil Spill in Japan's history ( I understand ) this could be seen as a slap in the face of the Japanese PM ...and a decisive point of inflexion surrounding US-Japan relations.

Consider the opportunity Japan would have by following through on its threat to dump US debt in favor of gold and other currencies.

Perhaps events now brewing will result in a sea change in gold demand/pricing that will catch the shorts with their pants down and cause a speculative run to boost the yellow metal through the roof ?

Cheers


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:59
BillInOregon bjack@cdsnet.net>(bjack@cdsnet.net):
I am on the beach in Hawaii, brought my laptop with me so I could keep up on the news ( kitco news of course ) and keep track of my E-Mail. I will be here for the next ten days. What a beautiful place Hawaii is. The sun shines down, the waves boom and the breezes caress us and it is so green here and the water so blue.

Ah Reify, Maxine & I congratulate you & Yvette on the upcoming marriage. I wish we could be there to dance at your wedding. Having met you and Yvette I know how happy you two will be. We will be toasting you on the 11th. With our favorite champagne. God Bless you & keep you.

My advice to all Kitcoites is to get out of debt, Love the Lord ( from Him comes strength & wisdom ) and treat your fellow man with fairness & kindness


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:54
Ron Stumped Again>(Stumped Again):
I was just online with Lind Waldock to check the status of my order and noticed that Dec400 Comex gold calls were steady ( open, hi, lo, close ) all day today at $20/option. But so were Dec410 calls, Dec420 calls, and Dec430 calls. Why would anyone pay $20 for a Dec410 call when ( s ) he could get a call with a strike of $400 for the same price? And what's with 420 and 430 calls? Why pay $20 for them? What am I missing? Is the mkt so thin for these things that buyers are buying whatever is available at 400, then going out to 410-430 and paying the same price for them, just to glom onto some? Okay, I'll shut up now. Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:51
Bob @...a bottom or bottomless pit ?>(@...a bottom or bottomless pit ?):
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970702/business/stories/gold_1.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:27
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Early estimates put the oil spill near Tokoyo Harbor today at 4 million gallons. It's probably much greater since we know how these esitmates tend to go. The Exxon Valdez spilled nearly 11 million gallons, cost Exxon $2 billion to clean up, and the company must pay $900 million each year for 10 years for ongoing cleanup efforts, PLUS pay 14,000 fishermen, businesses, etc., another $5 billion in damages. The spill decimated the fisheries up there. This latest spill is within in spitting distance of the world's largest city, and near Japan's fisheries. Any guesses here on what this recent spill may mean for Japan's economy, the Yen, gold, etc.? Thanks.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:11
RT @jerry favors>(@jerry favors):
Very interesting stock market analysis from Jerry Favors:
http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0702.HTM


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:08
nailz SILVER SHOULD BREAK NEXT>(SILVER SHOULD BREAK NEXT):
OK, STEADY AS SHE BLOWS.....Silver should break now to about $4.30 as gold makes its way lower into next week......Keep your last powder dry !!!!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 14:06
Journey (?):
Did I wake it up, or something ?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:52
Journey to the centre of the Earth...>(to the centre of the Earth...):
$331.15 on EBN -
Down, and Down, and Down she goes ...
And where she stops, nobody knows ...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:39
ezau swami@sag.it>(swami@sag.it):
Well, I didn't say my forecasts were 100%. Last I measured
about 65 to 70%. Oh well, no more money to buy gold stocks
as I follow my own advice. Maybe I will shift in to South
African golds. I haven't done it yet. Good thing I listened
to the advice I got here which said to wait for a 10% upturn.
I forgot who it was, anyway thanks. I'm sure were are closer.
This time aint any different that any other. Change is the
constant. From the industrial age until now. Every bubble
is fueled by belief that this time is different. Balls don't
bounce anymore, gravity has been repealed, etc. |:- )


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:35
Strad Master Any surprises coming?>(Any surprises coming?):
ANYONE: Has it ever happened that the Fed raised or lowered rates contrary to all expectations? I heard it said a week ago from some I consider reliable that theword on the street is that the
Fed won't rase rates this time. Of course, that is just couching the enventional thinking in a cloak of authority but still, I'm curious as to how many times - if ever - the Fed has really surprised everyone? Thanks for any historical perspective.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:33
panda @how.long.will.these.last?>(@how.long.will.these.last?):
Official rates for the Euro;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0009_194.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:22
EB and then I'll be quiet...I don't want to go over my five/day limit.>(and then I'll be quiet...I don't want to go over my five/day limit.):
With all this talk of investing for inflation it reminds me of some very sound principles I have picked up from a book that I bought in the late 80's. My oldest copy is very dog-eared and beaten up now. I always refer to it, especially in times like these...

It is called ( and I'm sure that many of you have a copy ) : The ONLY investment guide you'll EVER need by Andrew Tobias

Buy a copy - it's a great $12.00 investment. $17.00 for all you Maple Leafers.

AWAY...one more time

EB

quote from a quote from book:
October. This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September.
Mark Twain

it is also funny what he says about commodities...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:20
Ron EB: Thank You!>(EB: Thank You!):
EB: . . . on a roll :- ) hee-hee

All: Let's keep it light. Let's keep it friendly. There is plenty of room for diverse opinion, here. In fact, I think it's healthy. I don't think anyone here is trying to deceive anyone else, or deliberately cause them to lose money -- well, I recognized one provocateur a few weeks back -- or rip them off. So let's not let it degenerate into ad hominem attacks on one another. Plenty of that over on usenet, now mostly USEless because of it.

Peace.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 13:02
EB Ron - You must be butter... 'cause your on a roll!>(Ron - You must be butter... 'cause your on a roll!):
The Pysics is a print! Hat off.

away |:---- )

eb


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:53
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Steve*Perth: I don't get your point. It seems there was a lot of money to have been made in Industrial stocks and a lot to be lost in Gold Stocks. Are you saying that this is over or that the store of value idea supporting gold hoarding is suspect?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:41
EB Oh, and Ron...>(Oh, and Ron...):
Digging the quotes.*%*%

EB


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:40
Ron Physics Made Simple>(Physics Made Simple):
Everything I've ever posted here has been a joke. And since no one has complained, I hope you won't mind this, either. I remain ever hopeful that someone here will make the subject of gold equally simple, so that I will understand it, too.

The topic for today is quantum physics. Quantum physics was developed
in the 1930's, as a result of a bet between Albert Einstein and Niels
Bohr, to see who could come up with the most ridiculous theory and
still have it published. Most people agree that Bohr won hands down,
although Einstein did very well in the swimsuit competition.

One of the most important researchers in quantum physics is Werner
Heisenberg, a man with a wonderful sense of humor, who was always
cracking one-liners, like delta-p times delta-x is less than h! Ha!
ha! What a card! This is known as Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle,
which is closely related to Goedel's Incompleteness Theorem, which says
that some things are true, but you can't prove them, like when my wife
and I argue over whether it's her turn to take out the garbage or not.

What Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle says is that if something is
small enough, you can't say anything about it. Anyone with the I.Q. of
baking powder immediately understood that this means that if you look
at something so small that you can't even *see* it, like my dog, Oscar
Wilde's, brain, then you obviously can't tell, say, what color it is.

But some people didn't get the joke, and decided to investigate this
principle further. They would gather and sit around all day, drinking
beer and performing Gedankesexperimenten, or Thank God we're
theoretical physicists so we don't have to get our hands dirty with
particle accelerators and other heavy machinery. The most famous of
these is Schroedinger's Cat, where several physicists kidnap Erwin
Schroedinger's cat Fluffy and lock it up in a box, along with a
radioactive source such as Cheez Doodles. Then they walk around with
concerned expressions on their faces, commenting about how they don't
know what's going on inside the box. This goes on until the cleaning
lady discovers the box, opens it and tells the physicists whether the
cat is dead, or whether it has mutated into a man-eating flea the size
of Norway.

The point of this experiment is to show that uncertainty at the quantum
level can be detected in the macroscopic world and produce widespread
anxiety and paranoia. It also explains why paper clips just lie there
while you look at them, but as soon as you turn your back, they run
away, giggling wildly, and transform themselves into coat hangers.

Another famous researcher is Richard Feynman, who invented Feynman
diagrams, which are bunches of squiggly lines with greek letters next
to them. The way they were discovered was, one day, Hans Bethe came in
to Feynman's office to say that some of the guys down in particle
research were having a jam session down by the cyclotron, and would
Richard like to come over and bring his bongos? Feynman was out, at
the time, cracking a safe or something, so Bethe tried to leave him a
note. On the desk, he found one of Feynman's daughter's kindergarten
drawings. Bethe couldn't make head or tail of it, and figured that if
even he couldn't understand it, then it must be something Terribly
Clever, and promptly called it a Feynman diagram.

This was a major scientific breakthrough, and ever since, proud parents
have been hanging their children's Feynman diagrams on refrigerators
with little muon-shaped magnets, confident that their Little Darlings
are developing important scientific theories every day, because they
are, after all, Gifted Children.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:38
mikeharry goldie lags economy>(goldie lags economy):
Is this dis-inflation of gold prices or a deflation ? Yellow has lost too much weight lately and I would like to see Greenie put more flesh on to it.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:35
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
SHARE COMPARISONS: Just spent the last 2 days comparing some well known
Australian Industrial Stocks versus some bigger Institutional type Gold Stocks. ( From May 1996 to May 1997 ) Check these returns out...

National Australia Bank +71% ( UP )
Foodlands ( Retail Food ) +98%
Wesfarmers ( Agribusiness ) +70%
Franked Income Fund
( sub fund of Wesfarmers ) +82%

Compared to these bigger Gold Stocks.....

Goldfields -29% ( DOWN )
Great Central Mines*
( Joseph Gutnick ) -36%
Normandy ( Oppenheimers mob ) -25%
Resolute Samantha -18% ( up 13% for 1 mnth of May )
Sons of Gwalia -40%
Delta Gold -36%
Acacia Resources* -43%
Newcrest* -39% ( down -14% for 1 mnth of May )

* denotes be careful of these stocks!!

Me thinks this divergence in returns is standing out like the proberbial Dog's Balls.
Q. WHERE is the safety for your funds in the stocks blue chip industrial shares LISTED above ( ie. plenty of DOWNSIDE now )


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 12:35
EB Ron*%in*%the*%Sack*%11:25*%>(Ron*%in*%the*%Sack*%11:25*%):
That was a fantasticaly, dubious kick in the b*%lls. I am in an industry that is related in every way to the medical field. We saw, Long Ago, the writing on the wall and think we have geared up for it. But we found that we DO have to work harder and smarter for less money. YOU ARE CORRECT...it is not, and will NOT be in the future the cash COW that it used to be...Unless you are specialized, than the card game changes...or maybe if you are CEO of big HMO...or if you were Michael Jordan, or Michael Jackson, Michael Johnson, Michael Milken...
what was I talkin' about? Oh yeah! I was gonna say to Hepcap: Ppppppppbbbbbbbbbbbbbttttttttthhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

aaaaawwwwwwaaaaaayyyyyyy!

eb


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 11:48
6pak Interest rates @ Canada>(Interest rates @ Canada):
American Economy WHITE HOT in May.
Fed can dampen HEAT of inflation.

Canadian economy is on FIRE.
Bank of Canada raised rates in support of WEAK Canadian dollar.

The Bank of Canada would be very concerned if Fed moved on Wednesday.

http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Interest-Rates.html





Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 11:31
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.com>(gunrunnr@bsc.com):
Doc Kevorkian: Excuse me?

General: Nice piece...Trade you a Maple Leaf for that one...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 11:25
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Hepcat: Surrrrrrrrrrrrrre you're gonna make a lot of money in medicine ;- ) Can you say managed care? Better work on your bedside manner, too. The MBAs running medicine nowadays will demand that you provide service with a smile every minute of your 14-hour day, just as they do with their burger franchisees.

%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*% The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets and to steal bread.
--Anatole France ( 1844-1924 )

Never put off until tomorrow what you can do the day after tomorrow.
--Mark Twain ( 1835-1910 )

I loathe people who keep dogs. They are cowards who haven't got the guts to bite people themselves.
--August Strindberg
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 11:00
panda @talk.about.a.short.position!>(@talk.about.a.short.position!):
The Japanese brokers are short fifty ( 50 ) tons of Palladium! Must be a mistake. I wonder, on who's part?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/y0023_3.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:58
EB on John Maynard Keynes>(on John Maynard Keynes):
To a previous post...I don't know what famous quote you are looking for but I do like these. And more to the point, they could not be!

The engine that drives Enterprise is not Thrift, but Profit.
OR
more apropos to yesterdays group:
Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking.
OR...just one more, but a good one:
There is no harm in being sometimes wrong-especially if one is promptly found out

...and those are just the one liners.

away

eb


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:41
MoreGold @2000>(@2000):
Here's an interesting event to ponder, while we watch the Gold price plummet...
Friday, June 20, 1997 · Page A9 ©1997 San Francisco Chronicle

Year 2000 Computer Bug Expected to Cost $1 Trillion
Grim report from Lloyd's of London

Jon Swartz, Chronicle Staff Writer

For the first time, insurers have put a price tag on the ``Year 2000'' computer problem -- and it's a
doozy.

Lloyd's of London underwriters estimated yesterday that lawsuits arising from the dreaded
``millennium bug'' will top $1 trillion in the United States alone.



``When you consider that the total for litigation for all other liabilities including asbestos, tort and
pollution is $300 billion, you see the millennium issue is much more serious,'' said Jeff Jinnett, an
attorney with LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene & MacRae in New York.

The high-tech problem stems from computer programming in the 1960s and 1970s that sought to
save memory by using only the last two numbers of a year when recording the date. When the year
2000 comes, though, computers could read the date as being in the year 1900, bringing havoc to
thousands of business operations and government agencies.

Many older computers and software programs, unable to process two-digit dates correctly after
Dec. 31, 1999, could crash on Jan. 1, 2000, while many others will think the date is Jan. 1, 1900.

At a Lloyd's of London conference in London yesterday, underwriters said they based the $1
trillion figure on the flood of claims expected to ensue if data is corrupted.

They said companies that don't fix their code in time could be hit with lawsuits by business partners
and shareholders for monetary losses.

Government officials could face angry constituents and legal reprisals for botched paperwork.
Banks could be sued by customers and face stiff regulatory penalties. Firms that exchange data
electronically could sue one another over faulty data and losses. And technology consultants could
be sued for malpractice.

( Ironically, consultants have been warning employers for years about the scope of the problem,
which could affect every organization that uses mainframe computers to store information and
conduct business. )

``Someone has to be blamed,'' says Capers Jones, chairman of Software Productivity Research in
Burlington, Mass.

The so-called millennium problem is primarily relegated to software written for older mainframe
computers and does not affect most current software programs from Microsoft, Adobe and
others.

Some companies are prepared for the situation. A Microsoft spokeswoman calls its software
``Year 2000 ready'' because it allows customers to enter and store four-digit dates on their
software programs. She said all of the software giant's programs also recognize that the year 2000
is a leap year.

Nonetheless, market researcher Gartner Group estimates it will cost $300 billion to $600 billion to
fix the problem worldwide. Even more chilling: One firm, Cap Gemini America, cautioned that only
one of every eight Fortune 500 companies surveyed has a plan in place for dealing with the
problem.

Industry sources have raised the specter of major computer network crashes and widespread
problems with software controlling everything from bank vaults to satellites to credit card
statements.

Some doomsday scenarios are overblown and laughable. New York Councilman Andrew Eristoff
went so far as to say that the ``massive technology problem could crash every computer in New
York City.''

An entire industry has sprouted to exterminate the bug. Computer consultant ranks are swelling.
High-tech heavyweights such as IBM, MCI Communications and Electronic Data Systems Corp.
are offering Year 2000 services. And software programmers versed in old-time computer
languages are back in demand.

If the problem isn't resolved, the repercussions on the economy could be far reaching.





Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:33
Tortfeasor Joke for the morn>(Joke for the morn):
I'm swamped this morning so I am going to leave it to all of you to keep the metals shiny and our depressions on hold. Oh, where is some money when I really need it. With that here are some parting thought on wisdom and crashing in New Jersey.

One night, a Delta twin-engine puddle jumper was flying somewhere
above New Jersey. There were five people on board: the pilot, Michael
Jordan, Bill Gates, the Dali Lama, and a hippie. Suddenly, an illegal
oxygen generator exploded loudly in the luggage compartment, and the
passenger cabin began to fill with smoke. The cockpit door opened,
and the pilot burst into the compartment.

Gentlemen, he began, I have good news and bad news. The bad news
is that we're about to crash in New Jersey. The good news is that
there are four parachutes, and I have one of them! With that, the
pilot threw open the door and jumped from the plane.

Michael Jordan was on his feet in a flash. Gentlemen, he said, I
am the world's greatest athlete. The world needs great athletes. I
think the world's greatest athlete should have a parachute! With
these words, he grabbed one of the remaining parachutes, and hurtled
through the door and into the night.

Bill Gates rose and said, Gentlemen, I am the world's smartest man.
The world needs smart men. I think the world's smartest man should
have a parachute, too. He grabbed one, and out he jumped.

The Dali Lama and the hippie looked at one another. Finally, the Dali
Lama spoke. My son, he said, I have lived a satisfying life and
have known the bliss of True Enlightenment. You have your life ahead
of you; you take a parachute, and I will go down with the plane.

The hippie smiled slowly and said, Hey, don't worry, pop. The
world's smartest man just jumped out wearing my backpack.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:20
panda @stock.deceit>(@stock.deceit):
Fraud anyone;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/prst_1.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:19
General to Dr. Kevorkian>(to Dr. Kevorkian):
As a resident gunrunning nut, I have an H&K USP equipped
with .45 caliber hydro-shok hollowpoints. Will that do the
trick?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:18
RE: Arch Crawford @>(@):
Arch Crawford can see the stars ... He walked into a wall! : )


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 10:03
panda @Thomas>(@Thomas):
Thomas URL;

http://rs9.loc.gov/home/thomas.html

for S.307 stuff
Go to this URL; http://thomas.loc.gov/home/c104query.html Click on 104 at the top of the page, under bill number enter S.307, click on search.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:50
panda @whooops!>(@whooops!):
Scotty -- The URL should have benn http://www.altavista.digital.com
sorry!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:49
vronsky Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)>(Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)):
The inimitable Gene Inger sees interesting plateau where permabulls are pressed to find value, while permabears are locked in short cells. NOW IT’S TIME FOR CAUTION! INGER LETTER FORECAST:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:48
Bob A to Dax>(to Dax):
Ilike ABX,and PDG. In the more spec area I like BGO and believe it or not RYO. Mt favorite is a plat mine SWC. Mutual funds are also a way to go. Inow own ECO and SWC, in my retirement plan I can own Fid. funds and have some FSAGX


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:43
panda @scotty.info>(@scotty.info):
Scotty -- I you check back aways. I've posted the bill for S.307 and some sites for more info on it. This bill was proposed, ostensibly, because of drug money. I don't have the info here, maybe later tonight I can post it. A good site to us is the Thomas register for gov. Check it out on a search engine like http://www.altavista.com or your favorite search engine. I believe the URL ends in .gov. You'll have to do some digging. Search for S.307 in 1995? Good luck


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:36
Scotty @two.tiered.currecy?>(@two.tiered.currecy?):
RJ......could you comment more on the Senate proposal for a two-tier currency? Is there a handy URL we can access to read the details Thanks!! :- ) )



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:27
George s. Cole disinflation and deflation>(disinflation and deflation):
Panda: The way I see it nothing less than the end of the ongoing global financial bull ( or at least some smart and powerful people concluding that the end is near ) will be required to launch a new bull market in gold. We can still have decent rallies under the current paradigm, perhaps even back to $350 if the CBs decide they do not want to see large scale mine closures. But that is the most we can hope for until a new paradigm emerges.

A few points re: disinflation or deflation

Raw material costs account for just a modest portion of total business costs. Labor costs far more important. These are under control right now, but they are going up. So disinflation a better description of what is going on now than deflation. Markets are very confident the Fed will be able to easily deal with true deflation if it ever develops. Of course, that confidence may be misplaced.

Important to remember that the huge multinationals leading the bull charge are much less sensitive to U.S. economic conditions that smaller domestic-oriented firms. If things get tough in the U.S., they may be getting better elsewhere. The market is implicit assuming that these firms will always be able to do well unless the entire global economy tanks.

So lower interest are not seen as signalling potential earnings problems for these firms, but serve as an excuse to further hype p/e ratios.







Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:26
vronsky ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)>(ECONOMIC CONDITIONS VS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS (July 1, 1997)):
Market Maven report rings with logic & clarity. We have a “Goldilocks Economy” coexisting with a “Vampire Financial State.” Steve Puetz Letter:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 09:05
Dax Gold Stock Selections>(Gold Stock Selections):
Bob-A. I think your post of 07:19 was insightful regarding current market action. Am I correct to assume you would buy the strong gold stocks today, not the ones getting dumped? Do you have any predictions at to which might get dumped today?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:57
Dr. Kevorkian prescription@4-U>(prescription@4-U):
Johnny Hep man... I have something that'll cure that nasty bug of yours:

A dose of cyanide. Since you're only a med STUDENT and the REAL doctors won't let you play with REAL chemicals, maybe the gunrunner nuts will provide you with a large caliber handgun to do the job. If not, I'm sure we could find a few willing trigger men here. Any volunteers?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:47
panda @>(@):
Interesting comments;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0009_85.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:42
panda @>(@):
I keep on hearing 'dis-inflation' in the business reports on the radio. The business reporters keep on crowing about falling prices for raw materials and lower costs. Therefore, they conclude, lower interest rates are ahead. This means higher stock prices, according to them, but my question is when does 'dis-inflation' turn in to deflation along with falling earnings? Is this good for stocks? I don't think so. If the reporters are correct, then I must conclude that Puetz is closer to the 'truth' in this matter. If so, gold will fall due to deflation. The stock market will go in to a tail spin. I find it hard to believe that something would not be done to give the appearance otherwise. It would be simple matter to halt the falling gold price. A confussing picture here. I do not believe that the fools in charge would cut off their nose to spite their face. I guess we shall see. Cheering deflation as cause for rising stock prices? Bizarre at best. What would I use to buy stocks with if I have no income


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:28
panda @>(@):
George S. Cole -- I'm begining to think that only the 'strong hands' or us fools are left in the game. It looks like more tremors in the ForEx markets overnight. Thai baht goes floating after a two percent interest rate increase. It seems to have upset the Dollar, Yen, and most other currecies last night. Do you think that this is where the gold bull will start? If Thailand or the Phillippines can upset the Dollar, what does this say about global equities markets. Also, it seems that the FTSE 100 went ballistic yesterday, forget about parabolic!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:09
George s. Cole ray of light?>(ray of light?):
JSE Gold Index down just modestly today despite latest smash in bullion. Perhaps the bad news ( or most of it, anyway ) has been discounted?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:07
Mike Sheller @the chartz>(@the chartz):
The Long Bond looks like it has corrected and turned around. It appears we might see another run at 113. If it gets thru convincingly, we are out of the Rhino triangle and a significant decline in rates is ahead over the next couple of months. This would auger nice support for stox. Since the precious are still wallowing in the gutter, it would seem that the top in the stockmarket is still a way off ( as awesome as that sounds ) . Historically, the metals jump just before a stockmarket top. A rally in gold and silver would be telling us that the market peak was up ahead, but not necessarily immediately here yet. A rally in bonds ( breakout above 113/114 ) AND a rally in gold & silver, would indicate more upside in stocks for a while. Watch the bond with interest.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 08:03
OBSERVER BT>(BT):
Big Trader = Bad Timer


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:56
panda @some.news>(@some.news):
Currency troubles?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0009_19.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0009_44.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0006_z00_1.html

Palladium news;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/ec_z0009_1.html

Panic selling in gold?;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/02/z0009_23.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:55
Uris @ DFW Airport>(@ DFW Airport):
Lurker: If Alan and the boys do not raise interest rates today,
you may be going back to your old job.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:51
Lurker Just Lurking>(Just Lurking):
Whatever you do, please don't tell my mother I'm a gold bug.
She still thinks I'm a piano player in a whore house.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:47
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Bank of Thailand ties Bhat to Dollar.

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/marketset.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:45
Tortfeasor Yes, George there is a climax>(Yes, George there is a climax):
Yep, it looks for the world like George S. Cole's climax has arrived ( selling climax that is ) . I didn't think it would arrive but gold has done it to us in an ugly way, biting off both our ears as well as our noses in the process.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:44
George S. Cole FOMC>(FOMC):
Donald: If the FOMC does raise rates toda ywhen almost nobody expects them to do so, the market could easily drop 200 points. The market might go down somewhat even if the the FOMC stands pat as expected. Selling on the news you know.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:36
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MIKE SHELLER: I can't resist a good pun. Did the Prophets get stoned or stoned or both? Certainly my previous gold profits got stoned in the biblical sense.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:21
Speed @waking up>(@waking up):
Spot gold down 2.55 ( EBN ) Bart's 24-hour gold graph is showing decided tilt downward ( again ) . When do we start seeing news of mine closures? North American mines with low costs of production should be in the driver's seat as the high cost mines drop out.

WW: It's getting pretty grim when you can't start a food fight over politics here. Perhaps we need a course on CPR for swooning goldbugs. : )
My only regret is that I bought on the way down and ran out of money before the bottom was reached. I don't need a cap gains tax break as much as I need tuition to RJ's new era re-education camp. Gotta run catch a shifting paradigm....


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:19
Bob A work>(work):
With todays spike down it will be interesting to see which gold stks get dumped. Buylow Sell high, time to seperate the men from the boys.I'm going to buy if I see a good opportunity.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 07:09
No more clouds south of the equator>(south of the equator):
Mega el Nino has engulfed us. Who needs war. This is the sort of action thats going to turn markets on their heads. Not a bad omen for a run-up in silver.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 06:34
Mike Sheller RJ, RJ, RJ>(RJ, RJ, RJ):
RJ: Well, my game is up! You got me. Hey, man, being a POD ( prophet of Doom ) is a tough, dirty job, but someone's gotta do it. I hitched up in my younger days when I found out it was de rigeur for the prophets to get stoned. Now it's too late to undo THAT misunderstanding. Et too RJ? And no, tho I may tackle the heavy side of the big picture ( as a public service, of course ) I do not writhe in discomfort. Though I hope you find my writhing entertaining and at least legible. And by the way - stop apologizing so much for YOUR views, etc, - next to Bernatz, I look forward to your posts the most. No, we all shouldn't have to agree, nor would that be good. That would be dull. Seriously -Who will be right or wrong and when is not so important as speculative souls sharing some civilized, yet yeasty conversation. I have enormous respect for most of the minds at Kitco, and find it always a joy to have the privilige of drinking it in, and even occasionally befouling the water with my own madness. Now can I hear the part about the nubile daughters again...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 06:20
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Is there anyone here who thinks the Fed just might raise rates today? The financial press is 100% certain they will not. I am not so sure. The Hashimoto thing may produce a different result than the markets expect. Of course it will not be explained that way but I think there is a fair chance. I saw somewhere last week that the banks had urged an increase.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 05:49
George S. Cole spike down>(spike down):
August gold down $2.10. With the open interest up hugely the past few weeks, price stability was out of the question. Eldorado's spike down is here. $320s here we come.

Will the gold stocks be able to hold today? Doubtful, but very bullish if it happens.

RJ: We are, of course, in a new era technologically and economically. But a new era of permanently inflated stock valuations? Very unlikely.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 05:29
Donald @Work>(@Work):
RJ: Re your 00:53 post. You are right, we are in a New Error World. The Dow is at a 102 year high, 90% of the gain since the 1987 crash. Gold is at a 17 year low, 31 years if you adjust for inflation. If the way to make money is still to buy low, sell high, and you are not advising your clients to do just, that they will indeed enter the New Error World.

But my own experience has been when I tell my friends this they think I am crazy. Otherwise intelligent people really think it is a New Era. High tech etc. The high tech is fine, it is the DEBT that is the problem. Not just the goverment debt, but your neighbors and every business in town. They actually believe that you MUST be in debt to get the tax deduction etc. That is wrong, and gold investors know it is wrong. History has proven it wrong over and over again. It always ends badly and takes innocent people with it as its victims. Did you read page 8 of the Gold Mining Report by Steven Jon Kaplan? He says that the most frequently asked question by new mutual fund purchasers is: Can I buy additional shares with my credit card? If you need a sign of the top, that has to be it.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 05:21
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
RJ: Have you really thought about your post of 00:53? The part that
goes _new era of global economics. Never before in human history has
there been anything remotely similar to the worldwide economy of today.
Information can travel to any spot on earth in the blink of an eye. The
world yearns for US technology. No matter how much you reference 1929,
any comparisons are invalid._

I build this technology, I know it and think about the ramifications of
it all the time. Alot like what I think the first nuclear sciencetists
must of thought. One thing I'm sure of is that this global communications
technology will have as big an impact on the world as the nuclear technology
did. I don't think many people have really thought about that - it will
change everyone's life in the next 10 years. One of my unresolved
questions is what will the 80% of the US population that is not educated
do? What skills do they have that could justify 10x or 20x or 100x the
wage of someone who doesn't live here?

Before anyone answers, think about what I've already done: I've seen
a photocopier developed that the blond in the office could run, Medical
scanners, we build them so easy that a peasant from Mexico City could
operate it. I was there when we built the control systems for an oil
platform or a refinery that high school ( or should I say baby sitting
school ) drop outs could run. A global phone system where a native
sitting on Bre-X's claims could of called me and tell me there is no
gold! - done that to.

The people in my world are looking at a future beyond what you describe
but what your not saying is that we account for 1% or less of the
population. Most of this technology is being developed by a very small
number of people. Are the rest going to ride us? I think not - I'm
building this technology for a reason, it's not to be tied down with the
dead weight around here.

I really hope I'm wrong but I'm betting I'm not. I hope everyone out
there really thinks about this - it will effect you and everyone you
love. RJ is right the new era is coming - I just disagree with what
the era will bring. A booming stock market? I don't see where the
demand will come from.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:56
Who Cares? emerald@rmci.net>(emerald@rmci.net):
Yo.

You guys sound so down. Look. I moved a large portion of my personal savings into gold/silver/gems in 1994. Have I made money?

No.

But I sleep well at night. I think it's pretty clear that the U.S.
banking system was teetering on the edge of collapse through 92-93.

I would *love* to see gold break down past $325. I'd really like to
see it happen towards Christmas, when I'll have some more money to
invest. I'd *really* like to get some more eagles at $320 / oz. : )

The way I see it, currencies in general are in serious trouble. And,
if Bad Things happen, the rise in gold will be enough to pay off my
house. Like, that is *NOT* a bad thing for me. That means I can
afford to work part-time, for half wages, etc.

If Bad Things DON'T happen, well, then, I'm doing okay. I'm employed,
I'm making cash, I'm not shouting out Sieg Heils, right? I'm still
getting my house paid down, and I'd really prefer to NOT get involved
in riots or revolution yet. So I'm still a winner.

Cheer up. The odds are damn good that blue skies won't last much
longer.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:17
EB VISA?>(VISA?):
Thanks semi-demi. Those black-market-wanna-be-capitalist-thieving-gangster-thug-RUSSKIES will NOT!!!! deliver.

I wonder what I should do with that 5000oz CZAR PL in my garage. I trade all my old LEVI'S for it...


AWAY!!!!!!!!

EB


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:17
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Thirty Market days. Chart is in percent.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30d.gif

Fourth of July Rally in Progress?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:09
EB Kuston 20:00...(like your accent).>(Kuston 20:00...(like your accent).):
Thank-you for your post. It was good commentary and I agree with your take.

As for my commercials. I am a futures trader. I use many tools trying to gain advantage in the markets. I am a technical trader above all while while absorbing the fundamentals. One of the ways I find success is to use HISTORY to my advantage. I have found the historical perspective of Jake B. to be quite helpful AND successful ( before he was making infomercials ) . I pass some of these numbers along merely to Ponder ( as I have said before ) . They are not tips or recommendations. DO YOUR HOMEWORK ( as I'm sure you do ) . I really did like your post. Thanks again.

AWAY

EB

MY Bible: The New Option Secret. David L. Caplan
MY software: OPTIONVUE IV...oh my!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:07
RJ What, indeed!>(What, indeed!):
Proctor & Gamble announced last week that sales south-o-the border have almost tripled. Things like soap, toothpaste, etc. Consumer exports to Mexico are at all time highs. This means they have never been higher. Number one, numero uno, primo, whahid, eins, une, blahblahblah. What more do you want?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:02
Eldorado @G'nite>(@G'nite):
BBL


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 04:00
RJ EB @ Lots-O-Fun today>(EB @ Lots-O-Fun today):
Platinum is such a thin market, this week even more so, that the moves you saw today were the result of just a few trades. The Russians missed another shipping date, surprise!!!! Spot PL was up $9 all day when, 10 minutes to the close, it dropped $4 in a tick. With Hong Kong out, and the big US traders gone this week, you too can move the platinum market if you choose. A 5000 oz trade will bump it $15. No, they don't take American Express.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:50
Strad Master Champagne@Congrats.com>(Champagne@Congrats.com):
REIFY: CONGRATULATIONS!!! May the markets give you a BIG wedding present! I went to a wedding on Sunday and just got to thinking how nice it would be to marry my wife again - now ten years later. Big ceremony, homeymoon, the works! ( EB - that ought to be encouraging to you! No need for cold sweat. Go for it! ) Maybe if silver ever goes anywhere, we'll do it. Anyway, congratulations again. Kitco needed some GOOD news today!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:47
Eldorado @the system>(@the system):
RJ -- A lot of machine tools. Also car parts that come back at us. Tell me what the people there are buying! Or perhaps it doesn't matter if they don't earn more than survival wages and can not buy anything.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:42
Savage yes, I am>(yes, I am):
ALL:...... Today, I'm going to drag my bruised and bleeding account down to my brokers and BUY...yes, I am, don't try to talk me out of it... ( but, why does he put his head down and cry when I come in? )


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:39
EB ah good! He is still here!>(ah good! He is still here!):
I was away all day and before I left PL was making a NICE move. As I return 2-nite I notice it was all but given back. Any news from the RUSSKIES? Are we seeing a type of reversal. Perhaps it is a good time to add to the position...

I am out of my realm in PL. Perhaps I should stick to Grains and hogs.

AWAY EB


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:38
Eldorado @the wedding>(@the wedding):
Reify -- CONGRATULATIONS! I'm sure you'll find marriage to be a fine and wonderful addition to your life. May peace and a lot of health and wealth pay a very long visit with you!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:34
EB Omega man...again. I seem to always miss prime-time kitco>(Omega man...again. I seem to always miss prime-time kitco):
But with all of the trash talk 2-nite I guess it's not so bad. So now I can ramble by myself. And I will use bad grammar/speling, run-on sentences, etc. I'm feeling frisky and the cats have spit up all the balls. Does anyone remember the Omega Man? Ole Chuck is good.

Anyway. THICK skin/THIN skin. Some have it some don't. To all at this group...GET SOME THICK SKIN. Most of the jobs I have ever had have been in sales. During all that time I have built a heavy layer of skin and it certainly helps the water to roll off my back. Wow! I must be an Omega Gecko...Hmmmmmmm.

You are all right and alright. So shut-up already!

away...not so soon

eb


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:34
RJ EB>(EB):
Psuedo-semi-demi-awaaaay!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:33
Savage remember>(remember):
FRONT: please reconsider and return to our group...we would all be a poorer bunch without you...I ( for one ) enjoyed your posts.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:32
RJ NAFTA>(NAFTA):
Eldo - Exports to Mexico are up 30% ++ since NAFTA. So much for the poor Meheecaans......


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:28
Savage celebration>(celebration):
REIFY: CONGRATULATIONS...may you and your bride see a golden anniversary ( in 50 years ) !...with much happiness on the journey.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:28
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
EBN gold down 1.80! Now we're talkin'! Should have happened Monday!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:19
eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Their few dollars may feed and house them in their system, but what do you suppose those same families will be buying from US? What can they afford? We have the same problem with Mexico. The people can not afford to buy our goods. Try selling a car or a computer. They simply do not have the wage base to do it! Will they have? Perhaps, if the governments allow them to have, in time. A long time. You can not put together a consumer base overnight. It may take decades. Resources? Without utilization, so what. Without commensurate pay/wages, so what. I still like old Henry Ford. Paraphrased, he said, I pay my workers such that they can afford to purchase my automobiles. All businesses should hold that viewpoint first and formost. Do you see that happening in Mexico? Puerto Rico? Any 'third world' country? Basically, I don't think so!

Our technology may run the earth, but it comes at a high price for either us, or the poorer governments of the world ( mostly through bank loans guaranteed by us ) as somekind of infra-structure is put into place. Another burden typically upon our backs. Ah, what the hell. Who else even has a back! Also, our technology means s__t for us when it is stolen and marketed.


The people of this country certainly are the most productive people on the planet. Maybe also the most inventive. The most educated might be disputable. Most people currently alive in the world will never have the chance or opportunity to speak across the WWW. Most people on the planet will not ever see it, much less afford it, or ever have anything close to what we have in this country. They are still in survival mode.


I've mentioned before about that particular Senate Bill. Think about it. A two-tiered currency. And this is supposed to rectify anything? That, I would certainly require some explanation on! The Feds are running scared!

And RJ, yes, we can be on speaking terms. I believe that is what we are currently doing. Somewhere along the line though, you'll have to tell me what kind of publications you read! Purhaps we'll get a damn fine discussion going here! There are certainly viewpoints that need sharing!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:15
EB Reify>(Reify):
Congratulations. May you both love each other till, well... as the minister says 'till death do you part.

I am also considering the SERIOUS matter of marriage proposal, Oh God! Here come that cold sweat again...

AWAY

EB


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:11
EB you still there semi-demi?>(you still there semi-demi?):
Had question regarding PL...

EB


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 03:08
Reify @Happy Times>(@Happy Times):
To All- Am getting married, next week, so don't have a lot of time for reading the daily posts I enjoy so much, but did want to tell y'all,
that my charts are saying up, from here, and for the next month or two,the move may be a strong one.
My charts are mostly gold stocks, but gold, silver and especially platinum look like they're ready too.

So you see these are happy times, and I wanted to share them with all.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:49
Jack Correction>(Correction):

RJ: Your ( 00:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN
newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months. They
have great confidence in the future direction of the globe and
certain selections ( companies ) . I say Rwanda, Bosnia and
Somalia just to be short - as another possible direction.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:47
Jack Correction>(Correction):

RJ: Your ( 00:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN
newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months. They have great confidence in the future direction of the globe and certain selections ( companies ) . I say Rawanda, Bosnia and Somalia just to be short - as another possible direction.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:41
RJ Sorry>(Sorry):
Jack-san @ 02:22 - don't read newsletters, don't have the time and I form my own opinions. Hai.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:31
RJ Great Punchline>(Great Punchline):
Earl re: Use my name again, in any of your post's, and I'll hound you for the useless skunk that you truly are. Eh amigo?

I was shocked and surprised, The Earl can get down in the mud with the rest of us! Welcome Amigo!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:22
Jack >():

RJ: Your ( 20:53 ) sounds like the introduction of a SAIPAN newsletter flyer, get them in the mail every six months.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:20
Steve (Perth) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
If Mexico was wiped out, what would happen to NAFTA?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970701/international/stories/mexico_1.html
After watching a very recent TV show on volcanos in the Philippines & Mt. St. Helens in USA, I find this latest eruption/clouds interesting. Imagine if the thing really blew like Mt. St. Helens. Where do 12 million people go? If they can get out in time!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:11
RJ Its OK, Let it out....>(Its OK, Let it out....):
John @ 01:14 - Hep Cat - I do understand now, but the hairballs do tend to distract when they squish between the toes.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:07
RJ No comercials, please.>(No comercials, please.):
Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:15
Charles Martin ( devotee@istar.ca ) :

Is it possible to flame this clown?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:05
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Japan may well set the example for all world markets?In Japan, local press agency Jiji said 2 more securities firms have been linked to the corporate racketeer payoff scandal. The press report said corporate racketeer Ryuichi Koike has told prosecutors that Nikko Securities and Daiwa Securities both conducted illegal stock-deals for him. Koike is a key figure in the payoff scandal, involving Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank and Nomura Securities. The president of Nikko Securities has denied any knowledge of illegal payments. Jiji reports that Japan's securities watchdog has launched a full-scale investigation into the two brokerages.Xau,Dow anyone?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 02:05
RJ Edo, Sweetie>(Edo, Sweetie):
Eldo - I hear in the press all the time about some emerging third world nation with workers earning a few bucks a day. Doesn’t anyone see the deception here? The $ they earn, while equating to just a few US dollars, feeds and houses entire families. Are we to believe that all the workers are starving? Sorry, dead workers are bad for business. I find it interesting that you focused on the wages and not on the vast, untapped natural resources. I find your arguments usually intelligent, if sometimes redundant, but this latest is a surprise. What does the US produce? The technology the runs the earth. It leaves one breathless to think of the amazing strides forward in the last few years. Need an example? You’re looking at it as you read these words. If better, more educated, or more productive workers can be found anywhere else on earth, where?

Our debt is severe and , lacking curbs on spending, will bring a day of reckoning. Has anyone read Senate Bill 307? This bill calls for the creation of a two tiered US currency, domestic bills and foreign bills. I’ll cover this in greater detail later should anyone have an interest, it could get rather involved and I don’t have the time or inclination this evening. I still have to respond to the trade deficit issues from a few days ago.

Meanwhile, Eldo, baby, does this mean we are on speaking terms again? Perhaps we can be an example of two, who seem to get on each others nerves, can still progress the discourse.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:48
nest @yuk>(@yuk):
Mike Sheller, you said Gold was going to shoot its wad. Well look likes
like Charles Martian just shot his. Excuse me while I clean up arond here.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:44
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
SHARE COMPARISONS: Just spent the last 2 days comparing some well known Australian Industrial Stocks versus some bigger Institutional type Gold Stocks. ( From May 1996-May 1997 ) Check these returns out...

National Australia Bank 71% ( UP )
Foodlands ( Retail Food ) 98%
Wesfarmers ( Agribusiness ) 70%
Franked Income Fund
( sub fund of Wesfarmers ) 82%

Compare those to these bigger Gold Stocks

Goldfields -29% ( DOWN )
Great Central Mines*
( Joseph Gutnick ) -36%
Normandy ( Oppenheimers mob ) -25%
Resolute Samantha -18% ( up 13% for 1 mnth of May )
Sons of Gwalia -40%
Delta Gold -36%
Acacia Resources* -43%
Newcrest* -39% ( down -14% for 1 mnth of May )

* denotes be careful of these stocks!!

Me thinks this divergence in returns is standing out like the proberbial Dog's Balls. Q. WHERE is the safety for your funds in the stocks LISTED above


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:41
NowWeKnow @Gold bad, Drugs Good!>(@Gold bad, Drugs Good!):
john ( hepcat@med.unc.edu ) - A med student, aka Future Drug Pusher.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:37
RJ Personal afFront>(Personal afFront):
Hey Front - Without getting into the merits or details of your differences with others, I do agree that many here are too thin skinned. I too have ruffled a few feathers but have tried to control my own pomposity ( sometimes with limited success ) and attempted some humor ( sometimes feebly ) . The best response is to take the higher road whenever possible, but don’t back down. No opinion here reigns supreme. Some just take themselves way to seriously. Your posts are an integral part of this group and your departure would bring diminishment. Keep your voice among the rest and let the rest writhe in discomfort if they must.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:35
john D.A. hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Charles Martin ( devotee@istar.ca ) :

You say this exciting new gold discovery in Europe has high grades. You imply this is a good investment.

This is meaningless!!!

Please tell me WHEN TO BUY, HOW MUCH TO BUY and WHEN TO SELL. Otherwise, I will become extremely pissed off with you.

Besides, I have much better ideas and know more than you!

I'm waiting!!!


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:35
Bad Bear Some Url's>(Some Url's):
BEARY CONTRAR'S Market Review at
http://whitelamb.com/p0000052.htm

MVision Indices Charts at
http://www.mvision.com/mv/WMAAG/charts/charts_indices.html


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:25
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Let's see now. A billion Chinese earning the equivalent of a couple hundred bucks a year ( makes for a 'huge' market! ) . The US government continuing to run up debt to the tune of a couple hundred billion bucks a year, more or less. I wonder what comes first; Massive Chinese prosperity or a big bill coming due? Not that we particularly produce much here anymore to export, except debt, hamburgers and machine tools to make them more and more independent of our production. Marvelous! Pardon me if I don't yet see the light! In best regards...


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:24
RJ in the sky>(in the sky):
Bernatz de ventadorm - You are a shining star in the midnight morass.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:15
Charles Martin ------------>(--------------):
Dear fellow investor -----ADVERTISING MESSAGE DELETED----

Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:14
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
D.A.

You guys are always promising stuff to happen that doesn't. When I was a boy growing up, my Dad always promised me stuff and it never happened. So that's why I'm a med student. I'm gonna make alot of money and won't have to rely on people promising me stuff. Now do you people understand? It really pisses me off for people to make false claims. I'm reeeeaaalllyyy POed!!!!!!

Besides I lost alot of money in this stuff and I don't like people to be right. It makes me feel inferior. I am the one who is ALWAYS RIGHT!!

Do you guys understand now?


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:08
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

LSevencubed and everyone else - Hey, I appreciate y'alls desire here
to make money, but c'mon. One year ago when I said $325 y'all would
have drank poison before admitting it was even remotely possible.
Now that we are on its doorstep you act like $335 is a fact of life and you
want to bet me on whether it will go lower. We're at a four year low here, folks,
and I'm not a total idiot. I don't have a problem depositing $10,000, Lurker777,
but where is your risk? How many days in the last four years has gold been
below $335? How many days has it been above $335? Let's make it a realistic bet, like above or below $350 on October 1. And let's give the winnings to
the other person's favorite charity, so we're helping people that can actually
use the money.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 01:01
RJ One for all>(One for all):
PS - Please don’t revoke my Kitco pass for espousing these views. Don’t you think there should be at least one voice of dissension? Sameness of opinions cause stagnation. Besides I kind of like some of the people here. The rest I can tolerate as, I’m sure, they tolerate me.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 00:53
RJ Not 1929 Now>(Not 1929 Now):
George S. Cole - This is 1997. We are in a new era of global economics. Never before in human history has there been anything remotely similar to the worldwide economy of today. Information can travel to any spot on earth in the blink of an eye. The world yearns for US technology. No matter how much you reference 1929, any comparisons are invalid.

I guess I have used the ‘era’ phrase because I lack the words to describe what we are witnessing today. This rise in equities is unprecedented. 2 billion people in China, eastern Europe and Russia, rich beyond compare in natural resources, can indeed give us the only thing we need to continue this meteoric rise, markets, markets, markets.

Remember, I sell metals for a living, wishing only for volatility to give my clients opportunity for profits. I have zero vested interest in convincing anyone that the crisis many see as inevitable, is increasingly unlikely. A strong equities market robs investment dollars that would otherwise be in precious metals. One would think that, my game being metals, I would profit more if people would believe the house of cards will fall with the next gust, but I don’t believe it will.

I used to think this world would be unrecognizable by the turn of the century, war, famine, abject poverty, would abound, but one cannot ignore what is in front of ones eyes: Prosperity and the ever increasing likelihood of more to come.

I say to all, buy your gold, silver, and platinum. Protect yourself should I be proven naive and shortsighted, I have done, and will do the same. But don’t let fear blind you to the incredible opportunities for profit that are staring us all is the face. Make your $, then use it to buy more gold if you must.

The shrill cries of the fear mongers should be taken for what they are; a stubborn belief system of those who will call for the end until it happens, even if it takes fifty years. When all finally does fall, they will cry unto the masses that their words were indeed prophetic. They imagine that people, will finally recognize them as great seers and benevolent protectors. The throng will prostrate themselves in righteous revelation, offer gifts of frankincense and myrrh, and bid your attentions to their nubile daughters whilst their reverent fathers with silver beards plan monuments to these prophets of doom. Meanwhile the rest of us will be living quite comfortably, thank you.

Mike and George, how’s that for some more new era. Let me know if you want some more, its kinda’ fun.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 00:48
Lurker 777 friendly wager>(friendly wager):
John, If I remember correctly from our previous discussion you eluded that you might give more to charity in a year than I earn. I feel you are more than able to make the following bet. Since gold has been nose diving the past 18 months and you like three months here is a bet that you surly don't want to miss. On October 1st, 1997 I will pay you 100 times the difference gold is below $333.80 ( today's close ) or you will pay me 100 times the difference above that amount. We will both leave with Bart a Cashier check in the amount of $10,000.00 as a deposit. Any time our deposit is exceeded we will deposit additional funds weekly to cover the shortage. If funds are not deposited within one week of the shortage the loser forfeits his deposit and the contest is over.



Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 00:39
Mooney @Bernatz>(@Bernatz):
Bernatz ma fren. Est-ce que tu repete mon cher mot de la derniere annee - 1996? La mot: RELAX!
Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:08
Bernatz de ventadorm ( high_peak@les pyrannees ) :
For Monsiour le Hepcat
Ma fren - you seem to have zee tension. Tension ees a killair.
Ah suggest you switch to zee decaf cafe.


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 00:20
ezau swami@sagitarious>(swami@sagitarious):
Greetings: Well, we are another day closer to gold's upturn.
My vision was no joke. Also, by 12/31/97 we will see 4800
on the DJIA. That is an intuitive guesstimate. No waves,
rhino triangles, candle sticks, convergence/divergence,
momentum, relative strenght, envelope channels, sum of the
squares, linear regressions, stochastics ( can one get shots for
that )

Anyone that uses charts enough gets an intuitive feel in
order to trade successfully. At least I think so. I'm
sleepy, goodnite all. ( |:-}}


Date: Wed Jul 02 1997 00:07
REB na>(na):
Bart: If gold is at $450, who cares about the weather!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:59
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
TO JOHN N.: Guest of honor ? It would be a privilege. But I would suggest that you arrange for gold to hit the $450 mark before November. Montreal is a great city and everything, but you don’t want to be visiting here in the winter.

On the other hand when considering the greenhouse effect and general global warming trends, maybe Montreal will be the perfect place for a mid-January outdoor party by the time gold hits $450.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:59
RJ !!! Perspicacity !!!>(!!! Perspicacity !!!):
Gecko 23 - Bravo. Are you the last Gecko


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:55
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Rhyme -- It'll go... It'll go up even if it goes down first! If tonights numbers are a prelude for tomorrow, that's exactly what it'll do; go down first. Everybody remember, the least it can go down to is zero! ( pardon a 'HAR' here! ) There is no 'most' that it can go to!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:45
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
George S Cole: where did you hear about the a permanent bull market for stocks? I haven't seen this crazy notion anywhere yet.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:37
gecko23 @tony>(@tony):
tony: I think it's time you acknowledged that I've been right all along, and that you've been wrong. You needn't point out the perspicacity of your sneering visage repetitively, we've all lost enough money by now. It's not funny being impoverished by your lousy calls. Tony, Tony, Tony , you think that wit, intelligence, and free speech, and the right to have an opinion like everyone else makes it alright for you to live and breathe here. But I say to you that unless you can pick the winner of every ball game, and give me the correct score, for sixty three nights in a row as I have done for the last seven nights, then please keep your mouth shut and...huh? this is not the baseball betting chat line? Sorry.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:34
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

D.A. - You seem really eager to make this bet,
yet one bad ( or good ) day either way and one of us could lose
the battle while the outcome of the war is still very much undecided.
I have said $325 ( $326 now because of all the resentment ) but not
how it would get there. I wouldn't be surprised if we have another
suckers rally again before $326 is reached. What I'm saying is,
I have the ultimate faith in $326, but I don't have the ultimate faith
that gold won't go up to $350 or higher again before $326. How about
we say gold goes to $326 sometime in the next three months?
If it doesn't, I lose the bet and you win a Maple. If Bart agrees to
be the intermediary, we could each deposit a Maple with him.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:27
Mike Sheller more on metal>(more on metal):
Actually, if one looks at the longterm price charts, it is fairly consistent that the metals begin to rise prior to the stock market peaking. Perhaps those who expect a stock market crash to liven up the metals may be correct, but history indicates that the precious coming up from the floor usually precedes a stox top. The metals also tend to peak with stox, or continue to rise in some rare cases if the stox decline severely enuf. But in general, it appears that the shiny stuff shoots its wad just prior to, or as the market tops, and a liftoff in metals is a sign that a stock top is in the offing. '82/83 was somewhat of an exception, as stox continued strong for nearly 4 years. Classical theory has the metal topping after stox turn down, but the more I look at my handy Handy & Harmon NY cash silver chart going back to 1920, the more it seems clear that the precious jump just prior to a stock market peak. Anyone see the same thing?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:22
Rhyme delisle@max-net.com>(delisle@max-net.com):
Eldorado re your:21:22
I agree with your statement on what to look for.The technical position
of gold seems quite strong as measured by speculator shorts and the
consences numbers in addition to which a highly indentifiable trend
line is in place from the high at 416 and also the break to the downside
is anemic and not being confirmed by the XAU.It'll go...


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:21
George S. Cole down for the count>(down for the count):
Escher: Isn't it interesting that we are hearing these arguments that gold is down for the count at the same time that Wall Street is shouting new era of permanently booming stock prices louder and louder with each passing day. Just like in 1929

If this new era talk is correct for stocks, it probably also is correct for gold. But if this idea of a permanent bull market for stocks is a lot of bunk, then so is the idea that gold is down for the count.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:14
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Earl - Would that I had all the power you ascribed to me. I apologize
for accidentally posting that one time using your name. I think it was
fairly obvious from the text that it wasn't you posting but me posting
a message to you. Sometimes we all get a little excited in our desire
to get the words out and mistakes are made. You have a titular hangup.
I promise to watch that from now on. Me, on the other hand, see, I've
got this problem with expletives. I would kindly ask you to refrain from
barnyard noises in future communiques, should you deign to address me
again.
Earl, Earl, Earl - I hesitate to repeat myself. Aurophile and GSC have
given us wonderful, well-reasoned, well-researched, incisive, hard-
hitting, authoritative, brilliant, witty, trenchant, perspicacious, thorough
( yes, all this, and even toll-free ) analyses over the past year, all of which are as useless to me as if they had written a missive on why it is aerodynamically
impossible for the bumblebee to fly. Why? Because up to this point
they have been completely unable or unwilling to incorporate
what is going on around them into their analyses. ( Reminds me of the Monty Python sketch where live election results are being reported from a news station and the broadcasters turn to their analyst after a district result is announced and he says, Exactly as I predicted, except the other side won. ) .
As I stated to Zeev on SI, I don't know where the fact that Belgium is going
to sell gold appears on a chart. Does the chart suddenly spell out the
word Belgium? How would you like me to back up the information that
Belgium was going to sell gold? How could I present it so that you would
believe it? Would you like a testimonial from the head of the Belgium CB
with some kind of secret code word inserted that would tip you off to its
authenticity?
Earl, the sad fact is that I have been correct since last September. The
POG has borne me out at every step. I don't need to package it - it
has packaged itself. I have expended absolutely zero effort
in analysis. None. I've been able to do my daily work, far removed
from this topic, AND predict the POG. I'm not bragging, Earl, far from
it. I'm actually sad that it is this easy and people are actually wasting
energy trying to divorce themsevles from reality.
I don't care a whit about protecting other people from bad investments.
I care quite a lot about people who don't pay the consequences of
their stupidity. About the only time you are at all interesting, Earl, is
when you are waxing indignant. I'm glad I could light your fire.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:11
Mike Sheller Silver's last big spike>(Silver's last big spike):
TED BUTLER: re your 19:56 about the Silver spike & gold rally of spring '87 - I believe it came on the heels of a tanking bond market. After a savage leg down, the bonds stabilized briefly, then continued to dive, setting up the '87 stox crash. As I recall, the bonds were going down sharply for a while before the metals took off in spring '87. Also, Jupiter was at 19 Aries ( NYSE Moon - major silver significator ) at the time. At this very moment, Saturn is 19 Aries, right on top of that NYSE Moon.If its rally time for silver, it's now or never.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 23:07
George S. Cole Bear over?>(Bear over?):
YOUNGMAN: Didn't it start that way in early 1993 -- gold stocks moving up for several weeks before bullion joined in. Gold stocks have risen for two consecutive days with bullion flat to down. IF THIS ACTION PERISTS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, I will be inclined to agree with you that the bear is over. But the evidence to date is inconclusive.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:59
panda @currency>(@currency):
Currency stability problems causing Dollar problems?

Spill over for Thai baht?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/01/y0004_z00_12.html

Philippines peso in trouble?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/01/y0004_z00_13.html


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:55
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
Gold may be ready to move up, but I find it hard to get really optimistic about any dramatic surge. So much forward selling into any upward move. What about the one presentation at the gold conference last month about gold gradually becoming demonetized, and other people saying that goldbugs are following ideas that are 50 years old. I don't agree that the old ways don't apply anymore, but there may be some substance to those views, that the role of gold and the behaviour of gold prices is undergoing a major change.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:51
cherokee @who-let-the-children-out?-again?>(@who-let-the-children-out?-again?):
auric--

been to where the ladybugs go. one really beautiful spot.

the volcano 70 miles outside of mexico city is fixing to wreak
havoc on its' 12 million+ inhabitants. what the people see is
a warning from on high, to get the hell out of there while
still able.

here we have a volcano fixing to blow its' top and ruin
the lives of millions of people. kind-of resembles the
current situation in the stock market today. the natual
things around us, give insights of what to expect in life.
cycles of seemingly natural, and un-natural events.
hep-cat--it is not hip to be hep all the time! put a
bag over your head, and breathe deeply. the hiccups ( and devil )
will go away.

chaos has waited too long in the wings for his day. flux
has taken the banner and is rushing to affix the standard
in all places of power. the flow has begun. ride the crest,
or be crushed as it swallows all in its' path.

cherokee!; ) slayer-of-the-naysayers and heretics.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:47
nailz MORE GOLD ?>(MORE GOLD ?):
MORE GOLD.....You could be referring to conversations between APH and me in November, I believe. I said that my chart/timing/cycle study appeared to have gold bottoming in the June/July/August, 1997 area with the most probable being in mid July. APH keeps notes on this stuff and can probably tell you the exact date. Also included was an approximate $/oz.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:38
ted butler politics>(politics):
I'm with WW. This is the best our representatives can come up with, some tinkering with an impossibly complex code to benefit the top 2%? What statesmen. The scary thing is that Clinton is the only one raising an objection. God help us all.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:26
GFD Martian And Other Assorted Evil Empires>(Martian And Other Assorted Evil Empires):
I say Kofi old chap, do you happen to know whether those foreign troops that Henry was talking about were terrestial or extra-terrestial :- )

For those of you who want something more terrestial I invite you to consider the following:

Is Microsoft eyeing CBS?
By Reuters July 1, 1997, 9:40 a.m. PT

Microsoft ( MSFT ) is reviewing the finances of Westinghouse Electric's CBS unit as it considers making a bid to buy the network, the New York Post reported today.

The newspaper, quoting sources close to the situation, said four Microsoft executives were reviewing CBS finances. But CBS executives denied such a deal is in the works.

I can say, no there isn't anything to [the story], said the executive, who declined to be identified. We're not selling it. We're building it.

The newspaper said Microsoft, the world's biggest computer software company, viewed CBS as a valuable weapon in its battle with broadcasters as they seek to define the future of digital television.

Microsoft already has a relationship with one network. MSNBC, a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC, operates a cable news station that corresponds to a multimedia Web site.

The newspaper also reported that Seagrams is also said to be looking at CBS. Seagrams owns Universal Studios.

Microsoft's and Seagrams' interest in CBS was said to be preliminary; it was not clear if offers would be made, the Post said.

Microsoft, Seagrams, and Westinghouse were quoted as declining to comment


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:21
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
WW -- GEE! Now I'm all for becoming less endowed with monetary riches so I can take advantage of all those breaks! Let's all quit trying to better our standard of living! The government is against it! All laws should be applied EQUALLY to ALL! Not to INCOME!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:12
Kofi Annan @A Quote From My Good Buddy...>(@A Quote From My Good Buddy...):
Today the American people would react with outrage if foreign troops were called into Los Angeles to restore order. Very soon they will welcome it...

--Henry Kissinger


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:10
Bob @...China ..food for thought>(@...China ..food for thought):
Now with HK in its fold China has leaped into a leading role as an Information Technology provider. Once Tiawan is eventully taken-over by the Reds China with be one of the world's largest manufacturers and exporters of computer chips, motherboards, and peripheral devices.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:08
WW @New England>(@New England):
I am a a Liberal but not a Clinton Fan ( just trying to stir up some debate instead of unfortunately guessing gold's next dollar move ) but BC has it right on Cap gains and Estates. On Cap Gains you can exclude 30% of any gain from income on gains with respect to property held more than one year. Then you apply the regular tax rate to the remaining amount ie if you earn 250k or more your rate remains near 28% ie 40% marignal rate times the 70% included as taxable incomeand so on with the various rates. The lower your income the more you benefit!!This is a great tax break on gains for low earners but almost no break for the rich.

Clinton's estate tax relief only comes where certain members of the family work in the business or family farm . Otherwise all is the same as the existing law. There is no relief where there is no direct participation in the business thus, stks and bonds which are passive investments will be taxed at full boat.

Clinton aint perfect but he still has a sense of Economic and Social Justice!!!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 22:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
GFD -- Interesting! Thanks!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:55
Impartial @Eldo>(@Eldo):
Good Point ( :- ) ) !!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Impartial -- Given 'those', it could be sitting at 380, no problem!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:50
Real Thoughts @stop arsen around with alchemy>(@stop arsen around with alchemy):
Hey solar dude, blow up your own thermos and start shovelling.
I spose you can increase the atomic weight of lead too.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:50
GFD BlackLight Power>(BlackLight Power):
For those who might be interested in following up on BlackLight Power the following is a good summary: http://www.blacklightpower.com/news_lanc.html

I became aware of Dr. Mills during the early flap on cold fusion. It would appear that he has a couple of electric companies investing in his ideas as there has been independent validation of his experiments by people at Penn State U. and other labs.

Personally somewhat surprised he was still twitching as there was never that much interest in his novel theories. Also people with new theories of physics tend to be ( usually correctly ) labled as nutbars and tend to die penniless.

Put this in the same category as the dirts - interesting lab bench results that must now be scaled up to large, reliable industrial processes - a process absolutely fraught with peril.

Absolutely profound implications if they are successful.

Home page of BlackLight is: http://www.blacklightpower.com/index.html



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:49
panda @>(@):
Are we all done with the food fight around here? Good, I thought so. Now, on to the business at hand. Currency turmoil anyone?

Thai Baht in trouble, get the Batphone and call... Japan!

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/01/z0009_248.html


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:47
Impartial @Eldo>(@Eldo):
Eldorado: Your memory is somewhat selective - I have heard a number of rationales ( the word does in fact contain an e ) offered here for the decline in the price of gold. Among these are: gold does not pay interest or dividends; gold is a safe haven investment and we are in a period of relative stability; the stock market is booming and the return there is much better than for gold. The decisive factor has also been mentioned, most recently by George Cole ( hasn't he had his ear bitten off today ! ) - gold is simply out of favour with investors at the present time.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:32
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Selby -- It isn't the fact that they said gold was going down. Hell, the charts themselves were pointing it down. It is only that no rational was ever given for their thoughts that it was bound for the 330 area. NONE what-so-ever! Like I said earlier, it all must be 'top-secret' or something!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:27
youngman seer@not an oldman>(seer@not an oldman):
Front; I hope youchange your mind and stay on at Kitco. It would be a shame if this site became the eclusive domain of those with a commercial stake in the internet.

GOLD PRICE PREDICTION. The overwhelming pessimism concerning the future of the gold price is the best indicator of the reverse position. I amreminded of the negativity affecting another commodity; computer chips. The pessimistic attitude on the Net last year caused masive selling of semiconducter stocks.The MU thread on S.I. was taken over by the short sellers and the consencus estimate for MU was $5 by mid-1997.

Shortly threafter, and even before a turnaround in the book to bill ratio,the bottomfeeders dived in, followed by the major houses whose analysts turned on a dime with their buy an hold recommendations,followed by the short sellers who were now long. MU doubled in short order and AMD quadrupled.

GOLD PREDICTION: The bear has ended. Not will end, but has ( past tense ) ended. Gold will now trade in narrow 327-338 range for the next
several weeks while gold stocks will steadily rise ahead of the gold rally.
Contrary to past experience, the rally will be firmly underway in August
before spiking to $440 by late September.
The SA stocks will be the best indicator of the move to come. Watch for
Vaaal Reef at over $6, Kloof at over 73/4 and Drief at 8 3/4; Asa over
35.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:26
Tw @No.Virginia>(@No.Virginia):
On the front page of yesterday's Naples Florida Newspaper is a story about a black BEAR that found its way to a neighborhood on the outskirts of downtown Naples. While the public appearance of any bear these days is newsworthy, the fate of this particular BEAR is a perfect metaphor of the times in the paper markets: THEY SURROUNDED HIM WITH SHOTGUNS, DRUGGED HIM ( PROZAC? ) and PUT HIM BACK IN THE WOODS!!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
WDL -- Nope! No more relationship between the dollar and gold. Gold is basically on its own until something of a real event happens. Let us repeat REAL! Therefore, I recommend trading it on only that merit ( or de-merit, as the case may be ) ! That makes it much more technical in nature, in-so-far as charting goes, than real fundamentals at this time. Besides, you wouldn't hear about a 'fundamental' reason for a move up until well after the fact anyway! Fundamentals can exist for a long time before a move begins. They come into the news after the move is well into play. Better to watch the previous days' call volume in options for HUGE differences! That'll work 'better'!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:18
Selby Toronto>(Toronto):
Front: I expect you will do as you like. I started tuning into K-1 about a year ago and read everything on a daily basis--sold virtually all my precious metal stocks in Oct-Nov'96 when gold was about 370 I believe and put the money into the dreaded stock market and have been rewarded with major profits riding the subsequent boom. Since I started posting about a year ago I have been called many names most notably ignoramous' for suggesting that those who think they can get gold to go against the tide by stating that it should or must have got it all wrong. This is a collection of true believers who do band together when some one says gold is going down not up and that is to be expected. If you want to know how any event on any day could/may raise the price of precious metals --this is the place to tune into.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:09
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif
Fourth Of July FSAGX & FDPMX Rally UNDERWAY?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:08
WDL @currencies>(@currencies):
According to EBN, Dollar down against all major currencies...yet gold reported down .55...thought there was inverse relationship between weakness in Dollar and strength in gold...any comments?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:07
cyclist rally@two-week?>(rally@two-week?):
FWIW,Possibly a weak gold rally for one to two weeks with the Dow
staying flat and platinum taking the biggest jump.
Dow going into the blow-off scenario with gold being shorted the
same time into the third week.We could see a strong spike to the
downside for gold and the Dow taking out new highs.
IMHO,this could very well be THE low for bullion with another low at the
end of September.Goldstocks will bottom in spring of 98.
Hedgefunds are long paper and short metals.The liquidity squeeze will
force the shorts to cover when the market tanks.
This could be highly deflationary
Be very interesting to watch.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:06
Solar Power? Expensive Carbonecous Waste>(Carbonecous Waste):
or how bout Carbonecous Waste to energy ( converting carbonaceous materials into clean-burning medium BTU fuel gas which can be used for electrical power generation or for conversion into a variety of valuable chemicals ) .


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:04
Solar Power? Expensive Try Hydrogen>(Try Hydrogen):
Try Hydrogen ( Put a few hydrogen atoms in a vacuum-sealed, three-quart stainless steel can, add a few tablespoons of a common chemical compound, turn up the heat to about 250 degrees ( Centigrade, that is ) and what do you get? If you know what you're doing, you can get 10 to 20 times more energy than you put in, a clean and limitless source of power, and a proven answer to one of the big secrets of the universe. That's what Dr. Randell Mills and his BlackLight Power Inc. ( BLP ) have discovered over the last six years of work in the laboratory. And the Malvern, PA - based research company is gearing up to make the BlackLight Power Effect the dominant energy source of the future.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:02
NJ bottom?>(bottom?):
All : E maill from an analyst in London confirms the probability of a bottom and a good entry point.

Gold is running sideways at the moment on very low volatility, an
ideal time to get in in fact, but at the last download, CoT figures
showed the Large Specs well short. The trouble is that at all the
major reversals in Gold prices in the past, the position of the Large
Specs has changed from well net short to well net long during the
reporting fortnight!. One can but hope that it is not a spike
change, but a roundish one, as this should allow a considered entry
into Gold.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 21:02
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Deaner, who called XAU in mid 90's, calls for fireworks coming up:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139/


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:57
Greenie #>(#):
Fed to raise rates 1/4.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:47
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)):
Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Lurker -- Maybe and maybe not. Personally, I don't care, but others might. Therefore I'll share what insights I might have. Since you seem to know otherwise, perhaps you'll share your wisdom with the rest of us 'Earthers'!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:18
Amnesty @solar power for china@titania solar cell>(@solar power for china@titania solar cell):
George S. Cole , Vronsky and others provide the backbone to which the
body of work posted by fellow goldbugs is attached. We would be lost
at sea if were not ever looking for a change in prevailing winds. George
S. Cole is constantly looking for those wind changes and he is most welcome aboard my fishing boat, anyday. I like to equate markets with fire and this is my offering. Rather than
stick my hand into the towering inferno called the dow and have it
burnt off, I find it wiser to look for those coals glowing red, to nurture them, feed them oxygen and more fuel and in time I will have
a fire that I will then be able to pass onto others so it can keep them
warm. Gold like a sick child should not be abandoned! As we all know,
that sick child could be a future leader of people. Resolute and
caring!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:15
Mike Sheller capital appreciation>(capital appreciation):
BW: Thanks for the comments. I fear there will be much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth before the benign part of my Aquarian Imperative scenario comes to pass.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:14
D.A. last.chance>(last.chance):
John:

344 before 326. One ounce of .999 fine gold, coin or bar. Are you in?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:14
Donald @Home>(@Home):
Sell the Dow and buy 23.04 oz. of gold or 1671 oz of silver. Sounds like a right move to me.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:11
lurker @$$$$$$>(@$$$$$$):
Eldorado: it wont happen.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Observer -- If what we now have as a low is not THE low, then DO be prepaired for a good spike down to at least the 331 or even the 325 area! It won't be hard to detect. Any breakdown below current lows should get us there. IMHO!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 20:00
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
To read Kitco these days is like being at work when problem is found.
Finger pointing, challenges, confessions, people coming out of the
woodwork. What a sorry state of affairs. I've even been affected -

Last week I come up with a trade that I thought could turn $500-$1000
a contract in a week or two. I positioned myself to execute the trade
on Monday. Over the weekend, I read a post on Kitco that was almost
exactly my trade. The poster is someone who doesn't have my respect
as a person - this caused me to rethink my trade. I couldn't bring myself
to execute the trade on Monday - a foolish mistake on my part. I let
personnal feelings interfer with a good trade. The position is $600 per
contract in the money right now.

Like alot of other Kitco readers - I have a decision to make. Kitco has
changed alot this year. The change is very similar to what happened to
the internet over the last 5 years. It use to be a nice place where similar
minded people politely communicated with each other. We had ways of
dealing with the unpolite people. The problems from the real world
didn't exist in our world. Then the ISPs started hanging out their
signs, the real world people and their impolite ways started showing up.
At first we dealt with them - then we tolerated them - now we need them
to expand the bandwidth and fund our new projects.
Here at Kitco I see us at the dealing with them level. Some are
already at the tolerate level. A few know what I am saying - they
were there also. I really miss Churls and Crank. But times changes,
just remember why we came here in the first place.

SJJ: Oldman is now part of a pay-for service that teaches people to
trade. You can draw your own conclusions.

Front: If you read this - good luck. Thanks for the words of wisdom
you shared.

Gunrunner/Real Gunrunner: I hope you both continue to post here -
your insight into the world of war/fighting is important to the markets.

EB: Please correct me if I'm wrong - you have posted 3 trades now that
historically have gone up over 70% of the time from 7/3 for 2 to 3 weeks.
OJ, Crude Oil, and gold. Is that correct? Please forgive me, but this
sounds like a commerical. Even so, I will be looking at these tonight -
thank you for the tip.

For anyone who is still reading - Pa/Pl have continued their monthly
pattern of rising/spiking during the beginning of the month. I look for
both to continue this trend for the next 2 weeks. I had debated with
myself if the pattern would hold for July with the holiday. It did.
IMHO, this supports my view that the industrial consumers make thier
purchases during the beginning of the month. Around the 3rd week of the
month they leave the market and the speculators move the price. I've
found it better to be buying dips and selling on the rallies the first 2
weeks of the month and staying out the last 2 weeks. But then, 1st
notice of Sept. PA is next month - everything goes out the window.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:56
ted butler Earl and silver>(Earl and silver):
Damn you Earl, I was gonna say that. So I'll say something about silver instead.

Two things I find noteworthy. One, we went into a major first notice day with no net build in warehouse stocks ( we're at the year's low for anyone tracking this ) . Second, open interest exploded with monday's trade. Although, on the surface,we only went up 2K contracts on the decline in price due to fund selling into contract lows, we should have declined in open interest 5K contracts due to the mechanical offset from the 5k deliveries. In other words, we actually jumped 7K in open interest, which in my interpretation puts silver also at a record level for spec fund shorts. The next COT report will confirm this or not. If I'm correct, gold and silver are on the launch pad. It's possible we could go a little bit lower with increasing OI if there are more stupid shorts anxious to sell more, but the next major move is up.

One bit of trivia. Ten years and two months ago, silver jumped from 5.25 to 11.25 in two weeks and one day. I think gold may have jumped a 100, but I'm just guessing, i wasn't in it. There was no stock sell off or anything unusual as i recall.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:49
John Doe @*******>(@*******):
Now we know! John hepcat ( repack on SI ) is the anti-christ! the end of the world is near!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Damn, but you're GoooooD! It would have been SO nice to listen for any rational way back then for that kind of positioning in the market. But no matter how much we asked, cajoled, or other, none was ever forthcoming! Must be top secret or something. In any case, one can not make a long term investment given the terms such as, 'It just is'! Nah! Give 'em hell!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:38
Observer Straws in the Wind?>(Straws in the Wind?):
The noble metal a little stronger tonight despite further strength in the dollar. A portent of things to come?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:29
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
John @hepcat:

Since you are obviously a man of impeccable intellectual integrity, I would urge you to do some research on my posted opinions - before you recast them for me. I have not ever forecast gold in terms of either price or time. On the contrary, I have stated, on several occasions, that as a manipulated market, it was beyond rational prediction. My opinion remains unchanged.

Furthermore, your expressions of concern for the welfare of others carries with it the unmistakeable markers of a Messiah Complex. You are the Anointed One. The bearer of all truth. Sent from on high, to smite those who would do harm to the gentle sheep. In turn, you might do well to spend an extra hour each day, in your praying chamber, contemplating whether or not you are really cut out for the role of Messiah.

What a low opinion you have of your fellows and the process of formulating and communicating ideas. All the while you have begged, pleaded, badgered, browbeaten and verbally cajoled others to accept your monotonic, unsupported opinion; I have yet to see one shred of supporting fact in ANY SINGLE ONE of your posts. Nada, zip, zero, khong, .... not one! Only the monotonic refrain: I am Big John, bearer of the enlightenment and you must believe me above all others. In a word: Bullshit!

Please bear in mind that nothing is bought and sold on this site. Not even information. It's a repository of personal opinion and nothing more. None here, has a vested interest in misleading our fellow's. There is simply no personal gain to be had. Some will find it useful and some others may find it an avenue to financial destruction. That is an unfortunate fact of life. It is also called tuition in the school of hard knocks. It's their choice. Not yours. You have every right to post your opinion, along with everyone else. You do not however carry the right or obligation to villify the efforts of others. Most especially, in light of the poor quality of your own.

Use my name again, in any of your post's, and I'll hound you for the useless skunk that you truly are. Eh amigo?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:27
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Glenn -- I second that! It is very possible to see silver at the 4.4 area! Just as possible for gold to either first spike down hard or to do so after a one or two day run up of a few bucks! Makes it a bit difficult to just jump in. Day trading anyone?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:18
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
I'm beginning to believe that a rally mit happen. I was watching tha XAU rally and the low sentiment on the floor. I'm not long or short right now and I'm not sure what I'll do here but I thought I'd pass it on. There was alot more put buying done today. I just keep thinking that if we rally how high could we go? It seems like there would be alot more selling on any rallies and that if we go up $4 we then may go down $10. It's a tough call.
Today was very slow on the Floor so I did alot of thinking. If gold goes down any more from here I think silver will go down real hard from here. ie 440-450 area.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:12
Stargazer @cover your shorts>(@cover your shorts):
The journey begins tomorrow! We will not see 3-2-5!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:10
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

D.A. - How about $326 before $345? I have a feeling Schippi and some others
will jump in in a massive way before we reach $325 just to teach me a lesson.
I'm giving you guys a break before Independence Day - Gold will have the
chokehold released and actually end on a higher note tomorrow and
Thursday. If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will remind me.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:10
vronsky Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)>(Charlie's Dow won the marathon; now what? (July 1, 1997 REPORT)):
The inimitable Gene Inger sees interesting plateau where permabulls are pressed to find value, while permabears are locked in short cells. NOW IT’S TIME FOR CAUTION! See INGER LETTER FORECAST:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 19:05
Paul Friend of Big Foot>(Friend of Big Foot):
George...your post about most bigwigs and SA favoring a price of about $350
is very intuitive. My own thinking is that gold will in the near future
move over 400 so as the miners in every country can sell foward and hold out for at least
two years.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:59
Lurker @>(@):

Hepcat: If you are wrong on 3-2-5, will you be gracious enough to post here that you were wrong? I am sure many others will help to remind you.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:44
D.A. new.market>(new.market):
John:

How about 345 before 325? You've got only 9 bucks to go and I have 11.

Re the responsibility issue: If you find someone's opinions are consistently wrong then use them. As I have posted here in the past, I have found Alan Sinai to be almost infallable is his ability to call the bond market incorrectly. It has been very helpful to me over many years. If GSC is your contrarian indicator then by all means use it. The game of the markets is to make money, not to win friends and influence people. Just do it.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:40
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Well, my call for a reversal of any duration for Monday fizzled! Calling for 7-8 dollar move and wind up with barely more than tenth of it! HAR! Guess they are going to drag it out. So what else is new?

I see Hepcat is back, bitchin' about the goldbugs again. Ah well. I don't think anybody would have ever had a problem with him in the first place if he had ever explained his rational. He and BBW. Something that no one but RJ has done in more than a year. And his was that he 'kicked it and it didn't move'. The best and only so far! Congratulations RJ! You're the first on Kitco to post any rational for a continued downward movement in gold in more than a year!

BBL


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:29
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Retired - Regardless, you have to be impressed at how lucky I
was as foretelling the sale of gold by Belgium at a time when
GSC was wondering whether BT was real or not. Do you see the
difference? A lucky guess would have been to say, Some country
is going to announce they are selling gold tomorrow. But I named
the country. How many countries are there in the world, Retired?
Whose side would you want to be on?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:14
George S. Cole CB Thinking>(CB Thinking):
Sometimes it pays to try to see the world as the enemy ( in this case the CBs ) might see it. Does Alan Greenspan really want to see gold drop to $300 or lower? I doubt it.

As many here have pointed out, gold at such a depressed level would trigger many mine closures and greatly increase the odds that the next move up would go well above the $400 line in the sand. Second, friction between South Africa and the G-7 probably would increase substantially. Third a drastic decline in gold prices would add additional fuel to what is already the greatest stock market bubble in history. I doubt very much if Mr. Greenspan wants to see this bubble expand further. I suspect he is very concerned already and would much rather see the Dow drop 1000 points than rise another 1000 points from here. If I were in Alan Greenspan's shoes I would want to see gold stabilized at $340-$350 an ounce, not plunging to $300 or $250.

Wall Street is a different matter. Concerned only with prolonging the bubble as long as possible, I'm sure they would just love to see the yellow stuff plunge to $300 or lower.

If Mr. Greenspan and his colleagues at the other major CBs decide that the gold bear has gone too far for their own best LONG RUN interests, look for them to tighten up on gold leases by making less bullion available and charging borrowers more for it.

But don't look for the CBs to start the next gold bull. The most we can hope for from them is a rally to $350 or so to head off mine closures and help cool off the financial markets. A sustained gold bull is virtually impossible until the financial roller coaster goes off a cliff ( or at least a steep hill ) and private investor demand revives.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:12
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
How about a truce.Everybody knows the games people play here.Something I posted A year ago on Kitco.Gold rises and falls,but never changes hands.Prices explode or wilt for any reason or no reason.Try to put a face on it? Your trend is your best friend so simple yet we all love reading some of the bullshit.Happy trails


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:05
NJ ear biting>(ear biting):
john : Seems you missed my 16:22 of yesterday, so I am repeating it here. You really are doing a Mike Tyson act on everyone in this group. It is getting tiresome by now.

Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:22
NJ ( Forecasts ) :
NotaGoldbug : There is nothing wrong with presenting a minority opinion to a discussion group. The group invariably gains by that and this group is no exception. You were correct in
your forecast of the gold market and deserve at least as much recognition as the analysts who, during the same time period, were recommending purchase of 'any' DJII stock following a dip in the market. My only objection is to the vitriol and personal attacks. Unless, of course, if you are looking for the Mike Tyson medal.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:05
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
TOM... Your July 1,17:31 post is so TACKY, it really does not
deserve a reply. Since I have found Vronsky and Cole's posts
( as well as others ) to be very profitable, I can only wonder
if you are capable of understanding the material being posted!
Also just what great contributions have you made to this site?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:00
Retired @ nobody knows>(@ nobody knows):
There has been a lot of good information discussed by this group, but nobody is able to predict what will happen tomorrow. People make guesses and when they get lucky and are even close to correct, everyone applauds them as if they actually KNEW something. When gold actually begins to climb I will jump aboard, but at the slightest downturn I will abandon ship, hopefully with a little profit.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 18:00
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Schippi - Holy cow. We have a lot in common. I push seven figures around in the gold market, too. Unfortunately, the first four figures are zeros ;- )


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:56
Primo Loosing? Think Positive>(Loosing? Think Positive):
To the Majority:

I don't post too much but read most of the time. I feel sorry for there are plenty on this site lately feeling bad of loosing at this time. HAVE FUN AND DON'T WORRY! I positioned plenty in gold in January 1997 and I lost to date about 7% to 17% from various investments ( stocks and mutual funds ) . I don't gripe. I hanged on. I missed selling on one upswing so I'll wait again and won't sell until that time. I GOT TIME TO WAIT; and I don't need now what I put in anyhow. There is similarity in gambling and investing- DON'T GAMBLE/INVEST THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOOSE AND HAVE FUN. We lost in the casino last weekend and had fun. We'll be back this weekend and ready to loose again but for sure we'll have fun. Investing in gold now is much better that playing on the table of the casinos. Hang on and don't sell. Six months ago I thought bottom is near. Now I am still thinking the bottom is near, and if I am wrong again ...I'll wait. It's a matter of waiting patiently and have fun while waiting for the next day action in gold. Chances of bull now is much brighter than six months ago. My stocks are holding while the spot is going down.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:56
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Front..... Very disappointed to read your GOODBYE post as
you have provided some very valuable posts. I respect your
opinion, not about to argue. But I would like to state for the
record, that I push seven figures around in the gold Market
and have found BOTH Vronsky and Cole to be very helpful
and feel that they ( as well as others ) have contributed to
me making one HELL of a lot of MONEY.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:51
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

D.A. - I don't have a beef with everyone. I would like to have people
take some responsibility for their opinions when they are consistently
wrong. I would be embarrassed into quietude if I made some of the
outlandish predictions that some make on this form. As far a gold
going to $300 before it goes to $400, I can't see past $325. You're
talking about a price that hasn't been approached in a very long
time versus a price we saw as early as last year. I guess it would
be more fair if we said gold to $300 before gold to $600, but then,
if I lost, I would have to give you a very expensive piece of metal,
and I might experience some selective memory loss.

One thing that I would definitely go for on this channel is restricting
the number of posts/day to five or so each. That way, when people did
contribute, they would contribute something meaningful, and we
wouldn't have this barrage of advertisement and one-line E-mail
reminders to wade through.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:51
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com):
I see tempers are fraying a bit here at Kitco. Have a look at
something different. I have posted an update on my $A - $US Gold comparison charts
and added a long term ( monthly ) $A Gold bar chart at http://www.the-privateer.com

$A Gold has a long-term base around $A 430-435. It recently
traded as low as $A 434 and is now at $A 443. As you will see
on the detailed P&F chart of $A Gold, the uptrend is still perfectly
intact. For $A Gold to re-enter its post 1996 downtrend, either $US Gold
will have to fall to at least its 1993 lows or the $A is going to have
to spike up against the $US.

John Cruedel's piece in the New York Post ( George Cole Jun 30 9:00 ) is
interesting. He comes to a similar conclusion to the one I came to
in my op-ed of June 24. He doesn't highlight the Gold aspect of
Hashimoto's comments, though. I regard that as the most significant
part of his statement.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:40
bw Aquarian Imperative:>(Aquarian Imperative:):
Mike Sheller: Wonderful piece, a tour de force. Excellent summary of past and present, cause and effect. I truely hope your vision of so benign a future is also correct. However the forces of darkness seem to be putting in some more planks of their own. Did you notice our supreme counts say it is ok to throw someone in prison because he is a threat to society ,no crime required.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:38
D.A. re.tension>(re.tension):
John ( Hepcat ) :

I'm not sure what your beef is with everyone here. Would you like everyone who posts an incorrect prediction to fall on his sword? Why does it concern you so much that other people express opinions? I could see if this was a stock bulletin board and you were incensed by an obviously fraudulent promotion, but here we are just talking about gold et al. No one, including yourself and myself really knows for sure whats going to happen to the price of any of these things. We all make guesses based upon whatever rational we choose. No one here is making any money off selling these opinions so whats the problem.

If you do feel strongly about the price of gold heading farther downwards and would like to keep score in a more interesting way than your most recent post, I offer you a reasonable proposition. I'll wager one ounce of gold that we reach a price of $400.00 per ounce, before we hit $300 per ounce ( London Fix ) . This way if you are right you can hold onto a shining chunk of metal. Much better than an electronic scoreboard, don't you think?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:31
Tom piraz@usaor.net>(piraz@usaor.net):
FRONT: Oh my! Aren't you afraid? You'll be cyber-slurred and slimed from here to Hong Kong!

But, you're right. Been in and out since this site came on line. Vronsky only repeats what he reads and hears elsewhere, which can be useful. But geez Vronsky, give these people a break! Service your ego somewhere else for a while. And Cole's breakout is always a couple of months out as he cycles through the same analysis, offering little by way of the same message in different context. Original thinkers are a scarce commodity, and you won't find one in either of those wrappings.

Better to do your own legwork.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 17:30
Speed @work>(@work):
FSAGX closed up for the second day in a row. Spot Platinum is up. The best possible world would be the S&P 500 going to 1000 and dragging the XAU up to 200 with it. Sounds like some feelings have been bent here today. Reminds me of a line from a song from my youth: Make new friends, but keep the old. One is silver, the other is gold.

SJJ: I have never seen your posts before. Welcome!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 16:56
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
NJ: I feel your pain...It reminds me of me...and of lyrics from a Jimmy Buffet song:

..... I made enough money to buy Miami but I pissed it away so fast...Wasn't meant to last...

and he says later ......I gotta stop wishin', gotta go fishin', I'm down to rock bottom again....

Hmmmm... Hits close to home. Didn't know Buffet was into gold too.

BTW, any more Parrotheads out there in Margaritaville?



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 16:14
NJ pain>(pain):
L Steve : This gem was posted yesterday. Works better than two aspirins, far better.

Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:19
Lurker ( I am sick of this ) :
Please, Please, Lord, Let there be another gold boom!!!!
I promise not to piss it away next time.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 16:10
REB na>(na):
SJJ and others: There is so much defeatist comment here that I have to say something. No one should expect to be able to buy at the bottom and
sell at the top. Anyone who does this is just plain lucky in my opinion. Also, unless you are extremely leveraged, it is not necessary that asset positions always go your way. A position may go against you for awhile before it turns your way. Ultimately we all rely on our own judgement to buy low sell, high ( call it something else if you want ) . We either win or lose based on these judgements. Also, when sentiment is the worst is usually the best time to buy. I ( and many others ) have been through this before. It was this bad or worse for bonds and stocks twewnty years ago, and at that time those who were in gold or other hard assets were the one's who were patting themselves on the back.

Diversification is always smart, but gold aint dead IMO.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:49
SJJ Steffenjaege@metronet.de>(Steffenjaege@metronet.de):
John Disney and Searle: I`m sure you can`t hear any more questions about SA-stocks, specially when you also owned some of them and must face daily losses ( I have no better fate ) . But you are the best resource about those news: I readed today, if Goldprice keeps on falling, in the near future some SA-mines must be closed. Which could this be?

John the Hepcat: Your post of the last 2 days reminds me at your disput with Mooney about Flag Res in the other Kitko-discussion.
I think: your opinion often contains truth, you`re right, gold has been a bad investment over the last year. But you should tell this opinion in a more friendly way and without personal attacks ( remember: In the same matter you call in a forest the echo will be ) . Then, I`m sure, your predictions would be wellcome.

Oldman: In review, his sooner posts had included much wisdom. One of his posts to remember:
Date: Wed Nov 20 00:26Old Man: . The reason most people won't use a system like the 1,2,3, is they have been indoctrinated from their trading infancy with Buy low-sell high. I can tell you with certainty that this approach will break you. It will have you buying every rally in bear markets ( like gold this year ) and selling every correction in a bull market ( like stocks this year ) . If you want to have more money every year then you must learn to buy high and sell higher in bull markets and sell low and buy lower in bear markets.

If I would have ovserved this advice, I would not standing here, pockets full of gold-shares and losses. Oldman, wouldn`t you share this wisdom never more?



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:46
LSteve @feeling pain>(@feeling pain):
I think we are feeling each other's pain, and this is really getting to us. Back in 1993 I didn't have Kitco. I suffered alone. When gold hit 335/oz I was hurting then. Somehow I intuitively knew the bottom was in. Then Dan Dorfman came on with a bunch of gold stock recommendations, and I bought. Made a bundle. I fear that my exposure to Kitco has warped my intuitive sense of timing. It has also educated me immensely. A year ago I didn't know a wit about how the CBs were affecting the price. Six months ago I didn't completely understand why there was all this short selling. Now I do. This is because of Kitco. What I seem to have lost is my sense of timing. Analytically I know gold will rise but not when. This group dynamic we have has helped and hindered me. So I'll go now somewhat depressed that I wasn't really able to communicate what I was feeling. Losing a lot of money really does suck.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:21
Tim !>(!):
Aurator: You're welcome.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:15
2weeks Searching_among_the_stones>(Searching_among_the_stones):
Tares amongst the wheat. You know, the thing about a tare is, it looks like the real thing. The thing about a lie is, it contains some truth. Sir John, please, a little grace with all that lovely truth you are serving up. As Jack Nicholson said, You can't handle the truth. Not without grace.

Insight of the day award goes to GFD - Gold has formed a _religious_ bottom_ ( Monday 1609 post ) . A gorgeous insight! A religious bottom, I suppose, is when even the true believers are beginning to get quiet, perhaps almost depressed. No, not depressed, but subdued. You have captured the moment, my friend. From, hah, so I've lost all my mad money, things will get better, to hey, I'm getting a little tired of this.

Here's a prediction: Gold will go up close to $4 by COB Monday. The turnaround is here. It will be slow, almost difficult to recognize, but it is essentially underway.

Read the Book of Job. Once his own friends started to lambast him, he hit: a religious bottom. Once he was thoroughly humbled, things started to turn around.

The Law of the Religious Bottom. When the last of us has lost all hope, the day will dawn, that golden orb will lift its shining arc oer the tearful horizon, the jaybird will sound his playful mirth, and the last child will arise to a day of dreams.

From the bottom,

2weeks


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:02
Front to Selby:>(to Selby:):
Selby:

Thank you for you're kind words. You're assumption of my departing was/is correct. I believe there's something afoot by Vronsky, Cole and Sheller and is now evident.

Vronsky has a site called Gold-Eagle of which we have been informed of for a long time. Anyone who speaks about George either gets climbed on by Mike Sheller or Vronsky in a hurry. WHY? Because the contributors to Vronsky's site are, guess who?...COLE, SHELLER etc. They're right, we're wrong . They have an invested interest that they must protect at all costs. Vronsky's making money through advertising isn't he? He's got to protect the guys who show up on his site no matter that they may even be incorrect. Their mantel of excellence must not be tarnished and perhaps he can sell more advertising?

They have become unapproachable, even to humour. They are right, we are wrong. Look back at the posts. Every time hepcat or anyone else has taken George to task who's come to Georges defense?. George? He doesn't even deign to lower himself to answer posed questions. He seems to only pontificate from above.

It's been noted that a good economist will say either the time period or the event but never both. George is very good at that. Try and pin him down and the invictive escalates from those with the most to lose. Everyone else on this site knows what a ( :- ) is. But Vronsky choses to ignore it and attack. Why?

Someday George will be right. The market may go up in Gold. Hepcat says don't wait like that and gets clobbered. I joke about it and I get clobbered. What the heck is going on? Stiffling of opinion? Creation of a click? Self serving interests? There's something wrong here ...

Perhaps the king really has no clothes perhaps not but if you wait long enough you'll be very poor following other peoples advise who can't forsee the future any better than you can ... It's wrong what they're doing especially when they can't take the critism and attack en masse to anyone speaking out, joking or not.

Goodbye.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:01
john Two-point conversion>(Two-point conversion):

Of course, whether or not BT was real was an even money bet
in GSC's judgement, while it was fairly obvious to most people
on this site that BT was a hoax.

Oh, BTW, gold closed down again today.
For those of you keeping track:
Monday - John 1, GSC 0
Tuesday - John 1, GSC 0



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 15:00
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
I'm just coming up for air. The metals markets are not remarkable today. The following story I ran across seems to describe us goldbugs trying to decide when the market is going to take off.

Dan really liked living in Staten Island, but he wasn't crazy
about the ferry. Miss a ferry late at night, and he'd have to spend
the next hour or two wandering the streets of lower Manhattan.
So when Dan spotted a ferry no more than twelve feet from the
dock, he decided he didn't want to wait for another. He made a running
leap and landed on his hands and knees...a little bruised maybe...but
safe on deck. As he got up, brushing himself off, he announced proudly to a passenger, Well, I made that one, didn't I? Ya sure did, the passenger said. But you should have waited a minute or two. The ferry is just about to dock.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:42
Tim @the.law.library>(@the.law.library):
Aurator ( 13:19 ) : I think you have asked this question before, with no response - am I right ? I regret that time constraints prevent me from conducting a thorough analysis, but here is a very brief synopsis:
The commodities futures markets are subject to the following Acts of Congress ( and associated Regulations ) :
Grain Futures Act ( GFA ) of 1922,
Commodity Exchange Act ( CEA ) of 1936, and
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act ( CFTCA ) of 1974.
Within those statutes, Congress has conferred broad authority on the exchanges and the CFTC to declare market emergency conditions. The aim of this power ( apparently ) was to counter market manipulation, in particular, the type of cornering of a market attempted by the Hunts.
The statutes contain grievance and arbitration provisions ( ie. internal remedies ) ; if these are unsuccessful, recourse may be had to the courts. In Sam Wong & Son, Inc. v New York Mercantile Exchange ( 1984, CA2 NY ) 735 F2d 653, the court held that a private cause of action existed for a holder of net long positions in potato futures contracts, who alleged unlawful action on part of the exchange and its board of governors in the adoption of emergency rules in response to a developing crisis
concerning potato futures contracts. The court held that the appropriate standard of liability in such actions is bad faith ( ie. on the part of the exchange ) .
In such court actions, it probably would not be necessary to resort to principles of natural justice ( usually the last resort of a desperate litigator ) ; principles of administrative law ( eg. whether the exercise of the power by the agency was ultra vires, whether it was exercised for a proper purpose, etc. ) would probably suffice.
Hope this has been of assistance. Expect my outrageous bill in the mail ( only kidding! ) .




Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:42
aurator @ Back to FRONT>(@ Back to FRONT):
FRONT: No need to get your back up, mon. We do not all speak English as natives.

Another Churchillian quote:

America and England are two countries divided by a common language.

Sheesh, these past few weeks I've had to speak NZ English, English English, Guernsey English and now Canadian English. I love the English languish so lets not get hung up on either grammar ( a 19th century invention ) nor spelling.

GUM SARN is coming.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:40
vronsky TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)>(TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)):
Venerable Jim Dines Does It Again: He found 2 gold stocks defying the big bad bear in precious metals: EURO-NEVADA & FRANCO-NEVADA. A Unique gold concept ( 6/28/97 ) . SEE Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:29
aurator @ GUM SARN>(@ GUM SARN):
TED & ALL: Was comment a week or three ago on difficulty contributing to Kitco from cybercafes while travelling de world.

Just open a Hotmail address ( URL hotmail.com ) then access Kitco from within hotmail, when Bart sends the URL for adding comments you will be able to contribute again. We do need you, eh.

BTW I have found it is best to open two Web browsers, one to read and update, the other to access into Hotmail and send contributions.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:25
Goerge Cole touchdown>(touchdown):
MOREGOLD: As far as I can discern the CBs have not sold much gold, but have leased a lot bullion very cheaply. This is their primary weapon in today's gold war.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that bullion cannot stay in the 330s much longer. The open interest has risen from 150,000 to 200,000 contracts over past few weeks reflecting enormous fund short selling and massive accumulation by the commercials. We are either going to break sharply or rally strongly before many more moons have passed.

The shorts have had it all their own way the past 18 months. We shall see if they are able to score another touchdown here. An even money bet in my judgement.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:21
REB @humidity>(@humidity):
MoreGold: I doubt that the CB's actually want gold to go down and mines to close. As someone else said, this would result in much higher prices of gold later. I think the CB's just want to keep things stable. I suspect that the vested interest in a lower gold price is now largely with those who are short.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:09
MoreGold @?>(@?):
Someone predicted late last year ( can't recall who? ) , that Gold will bottom in 97/June. I refused to beleive but so far he is spot on. Really hope he is right and now AU begins the ascent. GSC, we all have our strong suspicions about the motives of the CB's, but we can only guess right now whether they go through with the plan and actually dispose of significant physical Gold, or just keep talking it down.
Im getting this feeling that the motive may just be to keep the
suckers ( sorry I think thats what they are ) coming in and buying paper to keep the paper market going.
If liquidation is indeed in the cards, we can expect the mine closing and the bear to continue for a while, but once terminated there will no longer be cheap Gold to lease and threats of CB manipulation.
In any case, I think long term AU bugs will be well rewarded.
Meanwhle the trick is to keep our heads well above the water. The tide
will turn...


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:08
Bernatz de ventadorm high_peak@les pyrannees>(high_peak@les pyrannees):
For Monsiour le Hepcat
Ma fren - you seem to have zee tension. Tension ees a killair.
Ah suggest you switch to zee decaf cafe.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 14:07
Neil Collett ncollett@ilink.nis.za>(ncollett@ilink.nis.za):
When do we hear what Greenspan and the lads have to say? Imagine if he raises rates a notch! This would be a signal to Wall Street that he feels I.E. is rife ( in light of the latest US manufacturing data which indicates that the US economy is not overheating ) or alternatively a sign of Japan's political/financial strength.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:47
ark salted@core.bx>(salted@core.bx):
While picking some berries this AM I was thinking it might
be fun to have a little quiz. ( I don't have the answers )

1. In which year did France confiscate their citizens
bank savings accounts in order to pay the country's
public debt?

2. Where was Ludwig Van Mises born? Why did he come to
the United States? Which university did he teach?

3. What was the famous quotation of Lord John Maynard Keynes?

4. What was Keynes greatest error?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:37
aurator @ clink our glasses, eh?>(@ clink our glasses, eh?):
OK, looks like I'll be doing some business here in Toronto during next year or two, so will be glad to come from antipodes for ( soon to be famous ) Kitco $400.00 party.

Love parties, me.


Mountains of Gold to all.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:30
Jack A good omen>(A good omen):

Belated news - but good omen - Silver Demand seen up on Clinton solar power plan ( Yahoo, June 27 5:43 PM EDT ) .
For full article, see Gold-Eagle Daily News goto Gold Daily, but type silver in the search option.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:20
EB I'd like to get a look at...>(I'd like to get a look at...):
those savage breasts.

AWAY?

EB

can you say freudian...


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:19
Selby TheHeartLand of IndustrialCanada>(TheHeartLand of IndustrialCanada):
Front: I just returned from Canada Day celebrations along the north shore of Lake Ontario and what do I find but you signing off with an apparent permanent Good Bye. Not a positive event. A moderate and knowledgeable non-bug is always needed on this site where the future is known and taking its own good time to be revealed. For the last several months the nuggets are in short supply and the cheer leading and banter take up a lot of space. But the bugs are getting understandably sour, uptight and irritable as the price declines, the DOW refuses to crash and reputations and margin calls look a bit formid...scary.

About time for the second major league baseball game north of the southern frontier with only one national anthem and Molsons and Labatts are on sale. Even the Queen showed up without her kids. One of us won the Kentucky Derby and the Queen's Plate and the Russian guys are up and walking in Detroit. Merveilleux.





Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:19
aurator Au Canada Happy Birthday>(Au Canada Happy Birthday):
ALL: I apologise for repeating this post from last week, but would really appreciate some information.

With so many hours to kill on airplanes thought it would be a good idea to read Stephen Fay's Silver Bubble again 10 years after first time.

ALL: I would be grateful for any information concerning Comex's powers to declare a Market Emergency.

Comex declared a Market Emergency during Feb/March 1980 ( have not brought book with me to this cybercafe so unable to recall exact date ) and allowed liquidation trading only.

In particular:

1 Have there been any other occasions when the rules were changed by Comex that effected a free market in trading?

2 Do the rules of Natural Justice apply to Comex in other words, is there any recourse against Comex if it changes the rules without warning?

Perhaps Tort or other legal beagles could add something here?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:08
Some Verse to soothe savage breasts>(to soothe savage breasts):
As Gold descends to depths unplumbed,
The Kitco Crew begin to bicker,
With purses lean and spirits numb,
They gaze upon the falling ticker.

As tempers flare, the fearsome Bear
rampages through the golden troves,
And yet the Crew do not despair -
Somewhere down there the Great Bull roves.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:02
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
I see Kitco has it's own fireworks for Canada Day.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 13:01
EB Vronsky>(Vronsky):
That is the YEN/PLAT factor I was referring to in my post. Thanks though, I'm sure others haven't seen it yet.

AWAY $$$$$

EB

am i the omega man?...


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:21
EB Damn the server!>(Damn the server!):
Sorry


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:20
EB FCOJ - It will be Golden.>(FCOJ - It will be Golden.):
More history and then I will shut-up. And sorry for talking about Oranges when the talk is on PGM's and personal attacks.

Has anyone overlayed JON7 with GCQ7? Isn't it weird? I have a new theory... that can rival the YEN/PLAT model. It's the EB's OJ/GOLD. I have been W/W ( watching and waiting ) for OJ to bottom and it finally seems to be there. It has been the LARGEST orange crop in history. FINALLY we may be able to see a turnaround. History says ( for everyone who has not moved to the next post ) this: BUY JOX7 on 7/3 exit 7/19 probabilities of success are 77.8%. This is looking like the TASTY trade I have been patiently waiting for with OJ...this is NOT a recommendation but more ponderance for my FUTURES friends.

AWAY...I promise.

EB

i may hold this trade much longer than two weeks...more ponderance.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:20
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):
REB: You are right... Nary a shot needs be fired...

IMO most political objectives and actions taken by sophisticated nations in the future will be accomplished less by the military and more by other methods of persuasion ( i.e., economic, coalitions, threat of military might/maybes, etc. ) . Rouge ( pseudo-military ) states with maybes will continue to be wild cards in the world arena - economically and politically. U.S. currently has the military reputation, but will it continue? Appearance can mean a lot - both ways ( in terms of weakness and strength ) .

Speak softly and carry a big stick...

Teddy Roosevelt


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:19
vronsky ORANGE/GOLD CORRELATION>(ORANGE/GOLD CORRELATION):
EB: Another interesting Futures correlation is that between Platinum & the Yen. RJ make an insightful analysis WITH SUPPORTING CHARTS in his study: RJ - Platinum Factor. SEE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis.html


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:12
Auric @Pundit>(@Pundit):

EB: Is that a short squeeze on OJ? ( sorry )


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 12:12
Front Closed Minds !>(Closed Minds !):
Mr. Vronsky:

You sir are correct.

I could have placed as many ( :- ) ) ( That's a smile BTW ) all over the place. I thought I had. I could have placed the NOT ATTACKING GEORGE in bigger capital letters. I could have done a lot of other things unfortunately, I thought that with all the smiles and capitals everyone might have seen it as jockular. Unfortunately, you chose to attack my choice of words.

FINE!

Have you're opinion. You're right, I'm wrong. You and George and Mike are all perfect and wise and know everything about life happiness and whatever else your ego allows you to think. I ( along with others ) cannot post on the site amd mention the name George even in jest without the world coming apart. If this small Gold corner cannot handle someone mentioning the word GEORGE without having an attack then you're too small of mind and attitutde to deal with.

Now I know why OLDMAN; AUROPHILE, and many others who we've chatted with no longer come here. You're minds are closed to anything that you don't agree with gentlemen. Goodbye.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:59
EB FCOJ - It will be Golden.>(FCOJ - It will be Golden.):
More history and then I will shut-up. And sorry for talking about Oranges when the talk is on PGM's and personal attacks.

Has anyone overlayed JON7 with GCQ7? Isn't it weird? I have a new theory... that can rival the YEN/PLAT model. It's the EB's OJ/GOLD. I have been W/W ( watching and waiting ) for OJ to bottom and it finally seems to be there. It has been the LARGEST orange crop in history. FINALLY we may be able to see a turnaround. History says ( for everyone who has not moved to the next post ) this: BUY JOX7 on 7/3 exit 7/19 probabilities of success are 77.8%. This is looking like the TASTY trade I have been patiently waiting for with OJ...this is NOT a recommendation but more ponderance for my FUTURES friends.

AWAY...I promise.

EB

i may hold this trade much longer than two weeks...more ponderance.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:58
REB na>(na):
The XAU sure is impressive given that gold is such a lame duck.

I keep waiting for a day of up $10 or $20 for gold, given the outstanding short interest and bearish consensus outside this forum. ( No prediction offered or intended. )


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:50
Auric @IOU>(@IOU):

DocDuke: That story was moved off screen. I guess Nando doesn't archive their articles. Nothing earthshaking, just a summary of bond, dollar and real estate holdings by other countries. It gave the changes since '86 when the US went from net creditor to debtor status.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:45
oldhand Stop the Bickering>(Stop the Bickering):
Hey Folks,
Let's try to keep the discussion about ideas, and leave the personalities out of it. There is nothing to be gained by fighting. I believe that everyone on this forum has something to offer. Whether their ideas are right or wrong is not the issue. The important thing is to be able to give and take. I, for one, would hate to see ANYONE leave the forum out of resentment. Let's keep it professional.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:42
Rodney King squashed.goldbug@LA>(squashed.goldbug@LA):

Why can't we all .... just get along?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:40
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Billd, Impartial Observer - Messages received. Thanks for your input.
Well said, both of you. Will check in throughout the day but done posting for now.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:39
EB an historical perspective w/ specifics>(an historical perspective w/ specifics):
Buy AUG. Gold 7/3. Hold it till 7/8. your trade will be succesful 71.43% with a profit objective of $4.07. This is from a 21 year sampling. And they are not my #'s. This is just so everyone won't get too EXCITED if there is a small rally Thursday before the weekend.

This is not a recommendation. It was an example used to give specific dates for those so inclined to need them. I happen to agree with the HEPCAT ( ONLY regarding the direction of Gold-and only for the present ) .
Gold has probably not hit the bottom yet or will languish more at this possible bottom, or maybe...it will... aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh! FAGITABOUTIT!

I WILL be in on the DEC. options after AUG. expiry. This is just too EXCITING to NOT be a part of. And I will sleep soundly esta noche.

PLATINUM...to the MOON!

AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!

EB



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:39
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
John : If you don't like what you read then don't visit the site. Personal attacks don't prove anything. I hear your mother calling, I think she wants to give you your soother back!!!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:35
Impartial Observer not so-called Objective Observer>(not so-called Objective Observer):
John Hepcat: Hello again ! Vronsky ( at 10:50 ) is absolutely correct when he says that a written message is inevitably interpreted according to the opinions, prejudices, etc. of its recipient. Accordingly, let me say first that I am in wholehearted agreement with much of what you say. Your prediction of $325 looks like being fulfilled, if not passed on the way down. I know that you have suffered quite a bit of vitriol yourself, a fact overlooked by many of the goldbugs, who are quick to dish it out, but complain vociferously when it is returned.
However, your prediction, like George's and everybody else's, is just that. George and all the others have every right to put forward their views, just as you do. They can put them as forcefully and as often as they want to. If novice investors are harmed by the opinion that is proffered on this forum, the rules of free speech and caveat emptor apply - after all, no-one is charging for this opinion, and investors, novice or otherwise, come to this site of their own free will.
John, de-stress, man - revel in the fact that you were proved correct. Short gold some more - it will probably fall further. You can be even more correct then. But let the goldbugs cling to their dream.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:31
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):
cyclist ( final@blowoff ) :

You mentioned that the NYSE market is setting itself up for a/or final blowoff for this year with a final capitulation of gold ( 275 to 300 range? ) towards the third week of July. Please tell me, what reasons do you have for picking the 3rd week of July ? Why not the 3rd week of August or October ?

Paul


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:22
Billd John the Hepcat>(John the Hepcat):
John...Your constant harping is getting tiring, boring and silly. We lurkers appreciate the comments of GSC, etc...and I for one wish you would find another forum for your unhelpful critic attitude. 'nuf said


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:13
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Observer - No.
GSC - To preempt your rebuttal: Then if you don't know, either - 1. Shut up.
2. Be prepared to suffer the consequences if you are wrong.
3. Get out of the way.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:09
OBSERVER observations>(observations):
Could the rampant personal atacks now appearing on this forum be another signal of an impending gold rally? Looks like some people have lost a few shekels in the precious metals.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:09
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

George - I am saying one thing.
Three two five.
Everything else is frivolous.
Aurophile a few months ago was saying that gold had a strong possibility
to go to $365, or some number around that, in effect giving him wiggle room
in case the target wasn't reached. ( It wasn't. ) This information was useless,
and his reputation was never questioned because of the qualifier.
When I call my broker, I can't tell him, There is a strong possibility I
will be putting $10,000 into IBM. I have to be a little more definitive.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 11:02
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

Vronsky - Then let me be perfectly clear.
Your continuous promotion of you site can be taken on two levels.
One, you are quite proud of it, and are out hitting the pavement to
let other people know about its existance.
Two, the more hits you have, the more hits you can tell potential
advertisers you have. I don't trust artificially inflated numbers,
and while I can laugh at P.T. Barnum's This way to the egress
ploy, that doesn't necessarily mean I approve of it.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:59
George s. Cole lies and distortions>(lies and distortions):
John : You lie and distort. I am saying that a decent rally MAY be imminent. Unlike you, I do not have a crystal ball.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:55
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):

If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards

GSC - please define sharply and soon. Otherwise your statement
is meaningless.

Again, I would like to point out that, regardless of what GSC says,
the message shimmering off his repeated posts is that a turnaround is
imminent. This is not correct information, and I am going to continue
harping on it.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:50
vronsky RE-DOUBTABLE FRONT>(RE-DOUBTABLE FRONT):
FRONT: As you well know most words may have several meanings and interpretations. For example, the word redoubtable means: formidable; worthy of respect; arousing awe or fear. Perhaps, it is very revealing that you choose to select the only possible negatively tainted meaing to give to my introduction to George S. Cole's formidable, worthy of respect and arousing awe work that he generously shares with us each day. Among the many hard lessons I have learned in my life, there is one which never ceases to amaze me. Regardless how one expresses an idea, certain listeners will inevitabley interpret - or distort - the intended meaning to fit his/her bias, convenience or prejudice.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:49
REB @Japan.China>(@Japan.China):
Gunrunner ( s ) : Thanks mightily for your comments on Japan/China. I think this subject is extremely important to gold ( and other forms of investment. ) Also, IMO military matters are VERY pertinent to a gold discussion.

I have wondered myself if a China/Japan relationship might unfold. Somewhow I see a more common interest than with cowboy boot Bill. The scenario of Japan dumping T-bills ( or not repurchasing at maturity which would be enough ) may not require a Chinese capability to move troops to the Japanese islands. Japan needs a market for their factories and a place to invest capital, and the Chinese it would seem
can serve them in these ways quite nicely. So in this scenario Japan can forget about the USA and supporting the US stock/bond markets and standard of living.

The fed decision this week and repercussions will be very interesting.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:33
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):

To: real gunrunner ( * )

My intel is not the library...

Agree that the scenario is unlikely. But....

China has allies and assets not counted in Jane's rag sheet. They've also been perfecting their missile technologies. And exporting them. Japan knows this. If air superiority/supremecy is taken out, Japan has no Army. A Desert Shield/Storm buildup scenario ( of several months ) will be impossible. The visible threat a couple of years ago by China's ( impotent ) fleet in waters around Taiwan got Japan's attention.

Tactics involving multi-front diversions of U.S. Military/Naval fleets would slow down U.S.'s response enough to accomplish a lot of objectives.

Let's not talk military scenarios on this forum. My point was that Japan REALL DOESN'T NEED the U.S. as an economic partner IN THE LONG TERM.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:33
nailz GOLD BACKING UP AGAIN.......>(GOLD BACKING UP AGAIN.......):
Looks like gold backing down a little more......GCQ7@$334.70


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:30
Billd Platinum>(Platinum):
RJ...Where do you get your Platinum spot quotes


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:30
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For Donald

Even my gardener knows that NOTHING can keep goldbugs under control.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:11
RJ UP>(UP):
PLATINUM!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:04
ted butler another sign?>(another sign?):
Add rising lease rates for gold to the bullish precious metals mix. Wonder if the CBs are having second thoughts?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 10:01
nailz SUGGESTION FOR MADOG>(SUGGESTION FOR MADOG):
MADOG......You might want to have some of us here to help you check out the method you are testing.....


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:49
Front to VRONSKY :>(to VRONSKY :):

Mr. Vronsky: ( :- )

I noted in your post of Jun 30, 20:07 that you referred to George S. Cole as redoubtable market sear. I'm sure you didn't mean the way it was put. Let me explain ( :- ) NOW EVERYONE TAKE A PILL FOR A SECOND AND RELAX, I'M NOT ATTACHING POOR OLD GEORGE!

redoubtable is an adjective. It could be read as modifying the noun market, not seer. The definition of redoubtable is 1.Inspiring fear etc. Now from this humble abode, either the market is redoubtable or in normal english to be feared; or dear old gentle George is to be feared OR, turned around, we should be afraid of dear old George ( :- ) . I know that dear old Hepcat has been trying to say that in a rough way but I never thought I'd see that from you! ( :- ) .

Of course, Hepcat would say that the redoubtable is just like redo as in do again. In effect, George is to be re-doubted. He's doubtable not just once but must be doubtable again for the re to take affect! ( :- ) NOW I'm SURE you didn't mean it that way either. Perhaps we could refer to him as Old George. We'd all certainly know of whom you spoke and some may even find him redoubtable ( to be deserving respect ( feared ) rather than re-doubted! ( :- ) ) ) .

TTFN and have a great Canada day
ps I remember Dominion day also but of course after yesterday the Dominion is getting a lot smaller isn't it!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:41
vronsky The Aquarian Imperative>(The Aquarian Imperative):
Astrological Investor by Mike Sheller sees coming financial catastrophe leading to a divided society and Gold Standard's return. Philosophical stormclouds gathering. See Astrological Investor:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:35
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
Auric: your Jul 01 1997 06:59 post gives a link:
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/070197/biz22_5482.html
that the addressee says does not exist. Please check spelling?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:33
A real gunrunner *>(*):
Gunrunner: You have it completely wrong about the US not being able to stop the Chinese Army overrunning Japan. The Chinese have no capability to project significant force outside of China. Do you think the Chinese soldiers are going to swim over to Japan? They could come a few thousand at a time - look at the aging ships and the size of their Navy in a military almanac. The Chinese do not have a highly developed logistic support system, or troop transport capability. They have a rudimentary tactical air force. Not to mention the fact that it would take significant amount of time to even prepare for such an invasion ( giving the US/Japan ample time to put counterforces in to place. These arguments are all easily verified at your local library. It will be at least two decades before China could develop force projection capability, and by then the US/Japan will still be way ahead.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:30
George s. Cole open interest>(open interest):
August gold now up a dime. Will wonders never cease!

Huge jump in open interest over the last week. If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:30
George s. Cole open interest>(open interest):
August gold now up a dime. Will wonders never cease!

Huge jump in open interest over the last week. If bullion doesn't break sharply pretty soon, a strong rally is in the cards.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:24
Scotty @telecaster>(@telecaster):
Telecaster......ooooops! I loved your commentary about Japan rising rates. I accidently typed Tortfeasor.....sorry!

Cherokee.....I'm with you on $300 gold! I'll even hire myself out to fix lawn sprinkler systems to buy an eagle or two a week at those levels! ( I HATE fixing sprinklers.......!! ) The only way to catch the true bottom is to keep buying at these low levels.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:14
Donald @Work>(@Work):
JOHN DISNEY: Ask your gardner to recommend something to spray on Goldbugs to keep them under control.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:09
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):

China and Japan are already in a cooperative agreement. They have been working together for the last couple of years ( out of public eyes & ears ) . Thailand did not agree to cooperate with their plan ( because of thier dedication to and close ties with the U.S. ) and look what happened to that little country. The U.S. has done nothing to help their situation. ( BTW, Taiwan also has not cooperated with China. )

Why would Japan cooperate with their longtime enemy China? They know that the U.S. could not stop the Chinese army from quickly overrunning their little island. The U.S. military in Japan has been plucked down to so little that there is merely a token presence there. Should a Chinese invasion scenario erupt, U.S. air power would control the skies for a few days, and possibly weeks, but it couldn't stop the eventual onslaught of several million soldiers. The Japanese know this and are playing their cards in such a way as to keep both super powers as allies - for the time being. Eventually ( very long term ) they will have to choose who they want to really be allied with.

The trap the Japanese are falling into is one in which they think the Chinese would be better economic partners than the U.S. If the Chinese keep their promises to keep their military on the mainland, both countries will flourish in a hugely profitable partnership. Japan's high technological manufacturing methods exported to a workforce of 1.2 billion reasonably educated wage-controlled workers ( who have been allowed to accumulate wealth ) is a recipe for an economic powerhouse. The Japanese are banking on the ( improbable chance ) that moderates ( and full Democracy ) will eventually come to power in China.

The point to all this is that the Sino-Japanese alliance does not need the U.S. in their long term Asian equation. No one is sure about the Vice-Versa to this scenario.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 09:00
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Objective Observer - A lot of time and brillliant minds were spent on expounding the virtues of Marxist-Leninist philosophy. While I admire the tremendous
efforts and purposefulness of the writers, I have to shake my head at all the
wasted effort. For it is not merely enough that one writes or thinks brilliantly.
One also has to make sure what one is writing and researching dovetails
with reality. I have no trouble complimenting Earl and GSC and Aurophile
on their writing or thinking skills. I just want to point out once again that
in the current market, all of their effort is for naught, and is actually hurting
people. Maybe you have to be younger to see this. Maybe you actually
have to be investing money to see this. I don't know. All I know is, their
advice is not correct, and it is not useful. Until they say it is not a good idea
to buy or hold gold right now, then they might as well be writing sonnets.
My message is simple, and so far, it is correct. End of story.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:47
Bob A to cylist>(to cylist):
Why do you expect such a good move in plat?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:47
Bob A to cylist>(to cylist):
Why do you expect such a good move in plat?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:29
cyclist final@blowoff>(final@blowoff):
FWIW,the NYSE market is setting itself up for a/or final blowoff for
this year with a final capitulation of gold ( 275 to 300 range? ) towards
the third week of July.It could take a massive shortcovering of gold to
alleviate liquidity problems when the stockmarket is taking a major dive at the end of the month.Platinum should be really interesting ,still
expecting 560 at the end of the month.It could be very chaotic.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:11
Mike Sheller ...and furthermore>(...and furthermore):
WW: Your invite to Chinese Embassy in DC would indeed mean a lot to gold, and us, if you might kindly take a few officials hostage during your visit, and perhaps threaten to discharge a nuclear device in your briefcase if all the gold bullion in China is not placed immediately in a secret account for you in Madagascar. Maybe you would also put in a good word for silver too?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:09
John (righty) Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
FOR LEFTY
You guys keep asking the same question.What kind of political
problem do you have in mind My gardener was 10 minutes late this
morning because his bike had a flat tire. I burned the toast a little.
Other than that pretty quiet around here. Sorry to disappoint
The Industrial sector was up and has been going up steadily. Before you
assume the market here is TANKING ( and similar tough talk ) because
somebody was asassinated or such like, try checking the other jse indexes.
The gold index is down because GOLD is down as locals sell and put
their dough into industrials. The main problem in the Cape is staying
awake because its so peacefull here. I could use a little action - PIL-GRIM.





Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 08:07
Mike Sheller Chao Ong Hong Kong>(Chao Ong Hong Kong):
G.S. COLE: I believe Hong Kong has enuf foreign currency reserves backing its currency. Perhaps the question is will the HK dollar become the PRC's Yuan ( he said with a yawn ) ? I suppose its academic. Over time that is what unification is all about. I am one who believes that China will wisely incorporate gold holdings as a currency backing, explicitly or implicitly, along with whatever selected currencies earned or inherited. The day must come when the Yuan is a major, vital, world-traded currency. If Mexico has one, then China is long overdue.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 07:58
Mike Sheller @old error>(@old error):
RJ - Ordinarily clear headed , analytically rigorous & wise, and joyfully elegant with your prose - just watch that new era talk. It's sunk many a fine young ship captain on resolute reefs 'afore! I need one more otherwise intelligent, sage commentator ( such as yourself ) to utter this phrase. Then, combined with Christy Whitman's first stock purchase, I will have the incantation of a Bull Market top in place. Will incant only at the New Moon, I promise you. I did imagine Mike Tyson as Marc Antony - and all the gathered Romans hurriedly scattering to the exits as he asked for their ear.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 07:44
Lefty What's up in SA>(What's up in SA):
The South African Gold Stocks continue to tank. Any one know
of any new political problems? Thanks.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 07:25
Bob A PGMS>(PGMS):
SWC up $1 yesterday, the start of something great.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 07:22
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at):
Madog: My indicators give me the same impression that yours seems to do. There a clear positive divergences between the technical indicators and the spotprice - in the long run a 100% sure sign for a turnaround. The problems with divergence-trading is the timing. Some divergences turn out to be buysignals after two weeks others continue for months. At the moment I expect the goldprice to stop falling at the 1993er support at 325 USD - If it goes under that line, the divergences could be turn out to be false signals - in that case they indicators would start to confirm the bearmarket.
regards from vienna


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 06:59
Auric @fiscally fit?>(@fiscally fit?):

A nice summary of the US fiscal situation: http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/070197/biz22_5482.html


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 06:53
Donald @Work>(@Work):
Enough of the Gloom & Doom of gold! Here is my Rip Van Winkle straddle. I say you can absolutely make money long gold in this market. Today July 1st is a good day to set it up hypothetically at least.
We are spending $100,000 to buy 16584 shares of Rydex Ursa at $6.03 each.
We are spending $100,000 to buy 23530 shares of Central Fund of Canada, CEF on the Amex at $4.25 each. Total investment $200,000. At least once a week I will post the result of the Rip Van Winkle Fund


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 06:39
Auric @Boom!>(@Boom!):

Cherokee: What have you been up to? Mt. Popocatepetl had its biggest eruption over Mexico City in over 70 years. You wouldn't happen to know anything about that, would ya?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 06:27
George S. Cole capitulation>(capitulation):
August gold down another 70 cents this morning. The bleeding continues.

Obviously we are now in the final capitulation phase of the gold bear. With all due respect to GLENN a bottom probably is close at hand in terns of time. But in terms of price --who knows? Secular bear markets can go lower than almost anybody believes possible. Especially when powerful forces with enormous resources are deployed on the short side. Still do not think gold prices will STAY depressed for long once the bottom is in.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 06:01
Donald @Work>(@Work):
GEORGE S. COLE: Do they have enough gold to back the Hong Kong Dollar with gold? I had assumed that they would just withdraw it from circulation. Never thought much about it because I don't own any. Wouldn't that compete with their own currency on the mainland and cause problems internally?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 05:36
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To all those involved in DD dealings.

Rumours persist that terms of takeover of Buffels
and Blydy by DD must either be improved or deal may
collapse. At current gold price, Buffels and Blydy
are lower cost than DD and are worth more in minds and
pockets of their shareholders. Silence has settled
over the negotiations. Id rather not be holding DDeep
should things go bad. Prefer buffels then blydy in that
order. If gold keeps going down, even prefer phoney
money US bonds or rusty used cars as last resort.

To those who read Mr Coles comments to effect that
Japan does not need the US as much as some Kitcoites
think it does. I think Mr Cole is 100% RIGHT.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 05:21
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
For Maddog - Please put me on the list for your magical indicator.
I really need something that works for a change.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:39
George s. Cole new era?>(new era?):
RJ: Let's here more of this new era stuff. Lot's of people talking that way today. Just like 1929. Very bearish from a contrarian perspective.



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:33
George S. Cole Hong Kong>(Hong Kong):
Does anyone here think the Chinese might back the Hong Kong dollar with gold? Until now the HK dollar has been directly tied to the U.S. greenback and Alan Greenspan's monetary policy. A possible run on the currency could force drastic policy changes.

Too, may here assuming Japan is so dependent on U.S., they will never buy any gold. I disagree. Japan much less dependent on trade with U.S. than a decade ago. Much more heavily into Asian trade. Nobody is threatening their oil supplies. They have almost no gold; other G-7 nations own a lot. They have taken a huge beating on their U.S. investments and must be getting sick of supporting the U.S. bubble while their own markets languish.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:17
Donald @Work>(@Work):
MADDOG: I don't know how your indicator is constructed but I agree with you about the direction. If you short the Dow or the S&P at this point, go long an equal dollar amount of precious metal, you can do the Rip Van Winkle thing and make money.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:15
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
MADDOG.... If I can help evaluate your model,
Email me a functional description.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:10
Donald @Work>(@Work):
TELECASTER & SCOTTY: I agree with your positions about Japan and the bonds and said so in these spaces last week. However, you should read Japan Between a Rock and a Hard Spot, Part II ( Oracle ) . The important point in that article is that while the BOJ holds 200B of bonds the Japanese public holds another 800B. Markets decide the outcome of these things, not governments. Although not mentioned by Oracle there is always the possibility of a Tokyo earthquake, or a bank or insurance company failure, or some calamity that makes the decisions for us.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 04:09
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

FSAGX & FDPMX are BOTH going UP! Fourth Of July Rally?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 03:42
News @update>(@update):

Tokyo down 429, or 2.1%.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 03:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
EB: U B on a roll!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 03:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
EB: You B on a roll!


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 03:15
EB @quit while you're ahead?>(@quit while you're ahead?):
Mike Tyson was prepared for the show
he seemed fit and ready to blow
In comes a man called The Real Deal
who has proven that he has the feel
and gets treated as though he is Van Gogh.

A
W
A
Y
:-0

EB


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 03:13
MADOG LOOKING GOOD>(LOOKING GOOD):
Hi all--Just an update on the custom indicator I develped. I posted three weeks ago that it has moved into the buy zone for the first time since dec. 1995 ( weekly chart ) Despite lower prices the last two weeks, it is moving higher still in the buy zone. I'm looking for the change in the daily charts but still a sell. I will post the first sign of a divergence on the daily.

As another example of how well it works ( I posted several, 3 weeks ago ) ,
it gave me a seel signal in copper on wed. june 18. Normaly i would not trade against the trend as was the case in copper, but the signal was too convincing.

I've spent close to 1200 hours working on the indicator and when i saw the final product , my bladder nearly let go.

I'm still testing it and thinking about packaging the final product for sale.
Any suggestions would be appreciated.

P.S. Of course, it would be gratis to all on Kitco. The wealth of knowledge served up here on a daily basis at no cost requires a thank-you.

madog



Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 02:41
EB Jumpin' on the bandwagon>(Jumpin' on the bandwagon):
Iron Mike was the coolest Hepcat in sight
and when he was called on to fight
He had so much to fear
that he bit the first ear
And then a second to call it a night.

AWAY?

EB


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 02:21
Seer @Odds>(@Odds):

Predictions: Next Tyson fight will be on pay per chew TV. New name-Evander The Real Meal Holyfield.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 02:10
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
to all sportsfans

Iron Mike Tyson is to Boxing as Bre-X is to Gold Mining.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 02:08
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
To trader ed
Nothing in news here. Union Negotiations in progress.
Seem uneventful. Management trying obtain 3 year deal
in general.
Gold mining sector came off here by 3.1% on Monday, so
the fall in the gold fund is not that out of line.
Index here free falling.
To ARS in Mex- Im losing my grip on the DD deal.
I THINK that all prior options will be rolled over into
a new option with a little higher strike and a longer
expiry ( like mid 2002 ) . I assume the preferred stock
stays like it is. If these were ADR related deals, you
should talk to your broker and make sure any options
you have wont be auctioned as you will probably be
screwed if they are.
DD was making a little before capex at a gold
price of $350, so I think they will be about square
at the present level. Same goes for Blyvvor. Buffels
is good to about $285. Believe many experts will be
surprised at RSA profitablty versus Autralian and
North American profitablity over the few months.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:58
escher remote4@ibm.net>(remote4@ibm.net):
My 2 cents. Gillette at PE 53, Coca-Cola at P/E of 46 ..., amazing, scary, fund managers being paid big salaries to make choices like this. US interest rates possibly going up a little as early as this week, Interest in US tbills drying up.

Obviously the bull market is running out of steam, but I would have never thought that it would be so easy to see the end coming ( well I think so anyway ) . Negative news starting to appear and yet one still has time to sell equities and change into gold, gold stocks, cash, etc.

Like in the recent book by Sarlos, the end of this bull market, will not occur as a correction but as a tidal wave that will wash many people away. Hopefully it won't be that bad but one best be ready.

^^
^^
^^^\/\/\


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:54
RJ What is a >(What is a ):
Been thinking about getting a cat, but I think I will pass on a hepcat, they apparently cough up too many hairballs.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:42
RJ Friendly chiding>(Friendly chiding):
Subjective Observer - I'm just having a bit of mean-spirited fun, been surly all day. I do agree with your choice of targets, though.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:30
RJ I couldn't resist>(I couldn't resist):
Subjective Observer @ 23:12

You owe Mr. Webster a public apology.

delineate
de·lin·e·ate ( dî-lîn¹ê-ât´ ) verb, transitive
1. To draw or trace the outline of; sketch out.
2. To represent pictorially; depict.

paucity
pau·ci·ty ( pô¹sî-tê ) noun
1. Smallness of number; fewness.
2. Scarcity; dearth.

acute
a·cute ( e-ky¡t¹ ) adjective
1. Having a sharp point or tip.
2. Keenly perceptive or discerning; penetrating
3. Reacting readily to impressions; sensitive
4. Of great importance or consequence; crucial.
5. Extremely sharp or severe; intense: acute pain; acute relief.
6. Medicine. a. Having a rapid onset and following a short but severe course
7. Music. High in pitch; shrill.
8. Geometry. Designating angles less than 90°.


One cannot say that your use of these words was entirely incorrect, but in context, they delineate an acute paucity of grammar.

gram·mar ( gràm¹er ) noun
Abbr. gram.
1. a. The study of how words and their component parts combine to form sentences. b. The study of structural relationships in language or in a language, sometimes including pronunciation, meaning, and linguistic history.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:11
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*):
As many of you know, the Thailand stock market has lost nearly 75% of its value in the last three years and recently broke below its eight-year lows. This has been a classic market crash. Accordingly, I have been trying, unsuccessfully, to locate data on gold purchases in Thailand in this environment. Does anyone have any suggestions as to where I might look for such data?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 01:01
RJ Give pause to your worship>(Give pause to your worship):
Objective Observer @ 23:12:

Perhaps Subjective Observer would be more appropriate.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:55
RJ Stuff>(Stuff):
I have never seen so many bearish comments on the Kitco group. A contrarian would be taking out a second mortgage, selling the kids, and buying as much gold as he could. I must admit, I was a bit surprised that the price wasn’t bid up a bit in Asia. With Hong Kong out for three days, and the US out for two, I seriously doubt any new longs will be placed before next week. This could free the bears to run it down to 330 maybe 329. I would be very surprised to see it much lower this time around. I read a report earlier about Hong Kong traders expected bigger demand for gold before the changeover - IMHO - I’M Holding too much, Overbought. If gold doesn’t rally from these levels by mid week next, 300 is a real possibility. I’m content to hold my shorts for 330, but I will place no more new below 340.

I don’t share the view of most here that the stock market will crash. The funds are so fat with cash, with more pouring in every day, they have nowhere else to put it. A thousand point drop would just inspire a new round of exuberance to buy it back up faster than it dropped. This is a new era in the equities and the old rules don’t apply. Boomers are reaching the most prosperous point in their lives and this much disposable cash will supply enough fuel to see 10K on the Dow. Not all at once, but by 1998 end, 10,000 +.

I have also read quite a few words here about bankruptcies and the credit bubble. What I have not seen mentioned here is that the vast majority of BKs will never BK again. Banks and lenders know this and routinely deluge the bankruptee with offers of new credit. The sum total of all BKs cause the big banks nary a worry, just the cost of doing business. Like drug smugglers who know a percentage of shipments will not get through, the banks have factored in the cost of these charge offs and are whistling all the way to the bank, well, to their desks then.

Silver is very tough to call now. I’m tempted to buy it here, but as soon as I do, it will drop to 4.40. I would rather miss a move higher than to risk 4.40 or lower. I would look to buy the breakout and let it do what it will here without me.

PGMs, to the moon. 500 ++ platinum this year. I have said it before, palladium prices could top gold this year, that will be a story to tell the grand kids. The manipulation is not over and a Tiger is still lurking in the bush, patient to wait until its prey has relaxed before a pounce and vicious bite to the neck.

Speaking of bites - this is really starting to become an ugly habit - a new limerick:

There once was a boxer who knew
The way to win was to give a good chew
Now, stripped of all Might
Today polite and contrite
The Iron in Mike is forever subdued.

Or

Holly an Mike sure had some fun
In their bout to decide number one
Holly hit
And Mikey bit
His career now over and done.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:51
Jack Telecaster>(Telecaster):

Telecaster: Agree with your ( 21:59 ) , that Japan would be in deep dung with the purveyors of bulls**t, if they sold their US Treasuries and T-Bills.
When one considers the huge holdings that they have accumulated, why can't they sell some of them? It is their money.
Japan also has huge dollar holdings not now in US Governments, so why shouldn't they buy gold with those funds to diversify their foreign exchange or safe harbor holdings?
Gold is relatively cheap wouldn't you say?
Then there is a ( supposedly ) huge Asian economy ( that sounds something like the DOW hype ) that they can enter.
Old wounds do heal as we all know.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:50
Crystal Ball Eeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiii!!!!!>(Eeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiii!!!!!):
My contribution for today--------A farmer and his wife went to a fair. The farmer was fascinated by the airplanes and asked a pilot how much a ride would cost. $10 for 3 minutes, replied the pilot. That's too much, said the farmer. The pilot thought for a second and then said, I'll make you a deal. If you and your wife ride for 3 minutes without uttering a sound, the ride will be free. But if you make a sound, you'll have to pay $10.
The farmer and his wife agreed and went for a wild ride. After they landed, the pilot said to the farmer, I want to congratulate you for not making a sound. You are a brave man.
Maybe so, said the farmer, But I gotta tell ya, I almost screamed
when my wife fell out.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:32
Amnesty @and further>(@and further):
This John Hepcat dude {the bile attacker} lives by the maxim Your cock-
up, my arse. I tell you what, my broker would run a mile if I started
blaming him for every mess up I make. And further, consider those out
there infected with HepC, does he have a cure for this timebomb?


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:28
Confucius @say.com>(@say.com):
Confucius say, he who owe a little must pay the boss,
but he who owe a lot is the boss. Also, confucius say,
why work for something that you can borrow.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:21
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Telecaster: Thanks for the memory refresh on Japan's true position vis a vis the US. The intangibles they receive are many and often overlooked.


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:19
ezau swami@sag.edu>(swami@sag.edu):
Let us close this down day with a quote from: Ecclesiates 3:1
To everything there is a season and a time to every
purpose under the heaven.

We prayerfully wait. Our good time will come. Truth will
prevail. :- )


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:15
Global Minerals &Technologies gmr97@usa.net>(gmr97@usa.net):
Due to the overwhelming response to our posting earlier concerning our free email Newsletter on Resource Srocks,for those still interested in receiving our recommendation this week.Please email us at gmr97@usa.net
Visit our website at www.globalminerals.com
regards
Global Minerals and Techologies


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:15
ARS in MEX beat me, whip me, make me buy more south african gold stocks>(beat me, whip me, make me buy more south african gold stocks):
For John Disney: I seldom post here but always read. I have missed your posts on the South African stocks. Do you have any knowledge of the linked units issued at the end of 1995 which consisted of one prefered ordinary share of Durban Deep with a guaranteed yield of 8% and a 4 year option for one ordinary share at $8.20 ? Do you know if the options have been stripped from these units? If so is there an active market in these?
I guess the bottom line is I feel like the way to play this now is to load up on these old options with a strike price of $8.20 and 2 and 1/2 years time left or try to load up on the new warrants with a strike price of $14.00 and 5 years time.
Any thoughts on the possibility of the new consolidated Durban Deep shutting down if the price of gold stays below $335.00 for an extended period of time?
Anyway, I enjoy your posts and thank you in advance for any help or info you can share.
Gracias, ARS


Date: Tue Jul 01 1997 00:13
Gime a break @expanded-ego>(@expanded-ego):
Objective Observer - Don't get near anything sharp. You're ego is stuck way out there tonight and you are in danger of exploding if hit with a tack. Stop brown nosing those that you view as teachers. You sound more like a moron. Objective my rear end. Take another downer and go to bed!!



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