Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:53
GENE and ALL.... We have everything in place for a move in the metals except a trading range with volitility....Gold, let's say fairly volitile between US 335 and 355....Silver between US $4.10-4.65. Back and forth. Back and forth....For weeks !!!!! I did very well in 1978-79 playing silver from $4.80-$5.20 that carried on for months !!!! Just give us volitility and shortly something will break loose !!!! HAPPY TRADING !!!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:49
RJ Me too>(Me too):
Nailz - Astute assessment. As bearish as I speak, I do speak for the short term - months. In the next couple years, I expect a big move up.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:37
nailz TO GENE>(TO GENE):
GENE....I beg to differ....Most at KITCO are not bearish on the metals..I think a majority believe that a short term downtrend is happening right now, however that does not mean most are bearish. It means most realize that gold is still in a bear market for now, however I think most a very bullish on the intermediate and long term trend in the metals...Most believe the current trend to be short-lived...weeks or months...Any commodity will be pushed down as far as the markets will allow, as they will at some point be pushed upwards as far as the markets will allow...My work is a little more bearish than most....I see gold down to $325-$319... ( Yes I know that breaks trend lines and yes I know that looks bearish on the charts, etc ) ...But I would also say to all....Establish your physical position NOW if you have not already done so...$20US will look like pocket change at some point ( when and where are the variables ) ..Happy trading.....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:34
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Good night Mike Sheller and thanks. I'm dusting off my sky charts and telescope!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:29
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
On Tuesday my gold stock went up a cent ( $0.08 to $0.09 ) and gold was stable at 342ish. Gold has dropped to 338.9, and my stock only went down $0.001. Does that tell you what people are thinking of this last gold drop!!!!! Just wait folks, just wait... something is in the wind!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:27
D.A. deflation?>(deflation?):

Could you expand a little with regards to your ideas about deflation? Everything that I look at from an economic statistical viewpoint is pointing exactly in the opposite direction.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:27
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo):
EBN Gold down .20 and Silver down a cent...Good night too Tarnished!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:26
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Steve Puetz: In years to come you will be known as the Florence Nitengale of Kitco, having nursed so many wounded goldbugs back to health and prosperity in their time of need. Sorry about the sex change ( :- ) ) seriously, keep up the good work. Between RJ and you and everyone there is the chance of seeing the next paradigm shift before it's too late.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:26
Stargazer @pluto>(@pluto):
GENE: It will begin soon.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:20
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Most at Kitco are bearish on gold. Could this be a contrary indicator?
Remember, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! Why do I have the feeling that something BIG is about to happen?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:19
D.A. re.pdlcf>(re.pdlcf):

North American Palladium ( PDLCF ) derives something like 75% of their revenue from sales of Pa.

The story in Pa is far from over. I read an article today in which an employee of a Japanese trade house was interviewed. The employee had recently had discussions with representitives from Tiger Fund who were trying to sell the Japanese long term Pa contracts. The Tiger Fund reps were insistent that Russia will be an unreliable seller and they won't be able to deliver large quantity from inventory. The Japanese were unimpressed and chose not to enter into contracts, and to rely instead upon the Russian deliveries. Knowing a little about Tiger Fund, I believe that it would be extraordinarily unlikely for them to say something such as this unless they really believed it to be true. To some extent I am talking my own book as we still own about 20% of our initial Pa position. However, should Pa continue to slide here, say another $10 basis Sept. we will in all likelyhood reload in a big way. There is still huge potential for a massive squeeze in the Sept. contract. If Tiger has good info as to Russian stockpiles, my guess is that they will use this decline to buy up another load. If it is true that the Russians can't deliver in size, the next time up will be extraordinary. Tiger will wait until the commercials are begging and extract the maximum amount of pain. Don't lose sight of the number one fundamental in this market. If Tiger wants to buy all the Pa in the world they have ample capital to do so.

P.S. Last I looked there were all of 30,000 ounces in Comex warehouses against something like 700,000 ounces in open contracts.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:18
RJ Kitco has ridges>(Kitco has ridges):
Panda - Nice to find someone who hasn't lowered the PGM flag yet. Indeed the Russians are far more savvy than we capitalists will admit. Maybe they can’t build a decent car, and their space station is filling the solar system with fresh oxygen, but they are shrewd. They convinced us to spend trillions fighting a cold war that they never had the capacity to win. Without the nukes, Russia is a third world nation, albeit with massive natural resources, but the Russians themselves are very smart. Witness the last six weeks in palladium. Now, if I may, Mike S, I will brush the crumbs off my shirt, and bid all, Adieu.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:15
Mike Sheller One more for the Roebear>(One more for the Roebear):
ROEBEAR: I am using the Saturn conjunction with NYSE Moon ( significator of silver ) . Saturn is right there, about a half degree away. Will be exact in July. I must say there should be some action now, but with these slower moving outer planets effects sometimes lag. I have not been heartened much by market action recently, but I'll wait til August before I close the books on this call. Last time Saturn conjuncted NYSE Moon ( '68 ) Tet and domestic riots broke loose, stox topped and silver doubled. Now I really have to get some ZZZ's!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:12
ALL: Consider this May 16th quote from Reuters in Tokyo A vetern Japanese legislator says the government should boost its holdings in gold, citing the risk of keeping a large proportion of the country's external reserves in US Dollars. 'Many people here are forgetting what gold holdings mean for a country.' Masaaki Nakayama, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told Reuters in a recent interview. 'When the global monetary structure changes drastically, it's risky to depend heavily on the US Dollar. Holding more gold should be considered.' Nakayama said.

What's all this talk on Kitco about CB gold sales? Sounds like you're biting on the bearish-bait being supplied by the financial media. It's been rummored that every time a European central bank has sold gold in the past 5 years, an Asian central bank has eagerly bought it up. That's why gold prices haven't broken very hard when the Europeans sell.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:09
Mike Sheller ZZZZZ>(ZZZZZ):
Nite All. Hope the markets go YOUR way tomorrow...whichever way that might be.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:09
Roebear HersheyBears>(HersheyBears):
Mike Sheller: Awhile back you had posted an astrological view that silver would have a decent rally in July to August time frame. Has recent market action changed that view or do the stars still stand pat?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:07
panda @>(@):
nailz -- Thanks. I was just curious as to what we were seeing here. Was this a paper mirage? In other words, physical supplies are tight but 'paper' prices are low because there's so much paper. Well, so much for that... Really gone now!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:06
Puetz - $365 then....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03
RJ Mike Sheller (240 or fight)>(Mike Sheller (240 or fight)):
Palladium, yes. A very specific supply problem, but I am still unwilling to concede the supply problem is over. As I said B4, this entire palladium run has been engineered by the Russians. When they were long, they couldn't get their act together, when they were short, all was peachy. Again I ask, what would happen if the Russians shipped, but not enough? With the fear of future shipments gone, would the true supply/demand picture emerge? More importantly, I don't think there is enough platinum to go around until we get higher prices. Demand was up 7% last year, production is not keeping up. Forget Johnson Matthey platinum reports, their numbers have been off for at least three years that I can tell, although why they would misreport is a wonder.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03
Puetz @ short-term gold prospects>(@ short-term gold prospects):
Panda: I don't feel very comfortable making short-term predictions. The deflationary trend for the ENTIRE economy bothers me. It could have a negative impact on gold short-term. I suppose $330 or even something as low as $280 is possible short-term. But in the long-term view, these will be minor price swings. Why worry if gold has already hit bottom, has $10 more down, or $50 more down, when the upside is so huge

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:03
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzz):
Things are really slow tonight, a good sentiment indicator? Well, good night all. Just remember, at some point, someone will err. That's all it will take. Things are too closely linked through technology. A silly little breakdown somewhere is all that is needed for the unthinkable to happen. I don't know what it could be, but I remember a story last year about an errant keyboard entry in to a computer that controlled a national paging service. The poor operator managed to shut down service to half the country and kept the beepers going in the other half with false messages! Talk about having a bad day! :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 23:02
nailz PANDA@2248>(PANDA@2248):
PANDA.....I do not trade platinum to any great degree.....I do, however trade gold and silver...As to your question on availability, it depends on the form you want it in. If you are willing to take the available form, the supply in gold and silver is immediate. For gold you might have to take foreign coins, bars or Eagles....Maybe even scrap...But they are there with plenty of sellers....On silver, you might find 1 oz. or 100 oz. or even the ugly poured 1000 bars or you might have to buy bags of 90....I even have a large bag of several hundred oz. of shot.... But it is there....All you can pay for. Sometimes there are temporary shortages in a particular item, but in general, you can have physicals in all you can afford.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:56
RJ: Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the short-covering rally won't begin until gold moves above the $364 area. But when it begins, Watch Out!!!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:56
Mike Sheller Crunch>(Crunch):
RJ: Kitco is like potato CAN'T just do ONE.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:53
Mike Sheller Not so Fast>(Not so Fast):
STEVE: October will be entering the height of renwed pressure on gold astrologically. The same aspect ( Uranus square NYSE Venus ) that has put gold down this past winter & spring will retrograde over the same degree and bring one more final weak spell. I'm looking for a minor rally in the weeks ahead, with silver strongest, but the big bull wont begin til the turn of the new year as Uranus finally lifts off. I realize this may be mumbo jumbo to most, but NYSE Venus has proven itself as THE gold indicator in the NYSE horoscope for the past 200 years. And the zodiacal degree of that planet in the NYSE chart, 5.6 degrees Taurus, has responded to major aspects from the outer planets back to the War of the Roses!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:53
panda @>(@):
RJ -- I agree with you that this PGM thing is not done yet. The Russians are a big question here. After all, they didn't deliver for six months because of a paperwork snafu? Even they aren't that bad, especially when it comes to their own pockets and the money they put in them. :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:49
RJ I know I said only one tonight, but......>(I know I said only one tonight, but......):
Steve Puetz - Read your stuff at Gold eagle. Your arguments are good. I think I have a better picture of where you are coming from. Remember one thing, I don't care which way gold goes, as long as it, and the others, go. If there is a rally to be had at the expense of massive shorts why did it not come 3 1/2 months ago when gold topped $364? It stayed above $350 for several days, silver moved more than 60 cents, platinum toped $400. If the impetus to drive gold up exists, why did the February rally fail? There was a lot of short covering then but there was no hesitation to lay in new shorts. I enjoyed your newsletter.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:48
panda @Curious>(@Curious):
To All -- One question that I have is this. How available is the physical metal ( gold, platinum, silver ) as coin or bar at the spot prices quoted? I know most bullion coin typically has about a four percent premium to the spot price. The question remains; What is the availability of the physicals? Has anyone been told that they have to wait for X number of days or weeks for delivery?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:45
Mike Sheller 240 or fight>(240 or fight):
RJ: Yes, Twas me who told QT on, I think, May 22, I saw a 240 max for Palladium if it got thru 200. ( It was up against initial resistance at 173 at the time, if I recall - sort of a congestion if you will ) I did that off the price chart - saw mucho resistance in the cylinder at 240. HOWEVER...I did NOT expect the run to happen so quickly ( as though I'll EVER learn about the metal moves ) . I was also looking at the horoscope of North American Palladium for QT. It indicated action ahead, so I was figuring that 240 top to come in later than it did. This stock tends to respond to metal rallies in general, and not necessarily Palladium in particular. It didn't do much on the Palladium rally. I don't think they really mine much and besides, this was a very specific supply problem and not a fundamental market shift. Or would you say I'm off base there?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:41
panda @>(@):
Steve Puetz -- Do you think we will be testing the 1993 lows very soon? Something like $328 - $330 spot gold? Most of the PM stocks are pretty close to their '93 lows, it wouldn't take much to push them over now. ECO was downgraded today by Smith Barney along with Amax gold. Sentiment is really negative! Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to when a climactic selling session will occur? It has to be coming soon.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:21
Puetz @ Speed>(@ Speed):
Speed: Thanks for the valuable sentiment indicators!!!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:19
RJ: From my viewpoint, a the first leg of a gigantic gold bull market looks all-but-certain before the end of October. Once $350 is penetrated to the upside, a massive short-covering rally will take over pushing the yellow metal to $500 rather quickly in a platinum-stlye squeeze. ( See my postings earlier tonight. ) Buy gold now, while it's cheap. Don't wait until the buying panic starts.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:18
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:12
Speed @bug-bit, sun-burnt and gold-down>(@bug-bit, sun-burnt and gold-down):
I get back from a camp out and look what I find! Everybody buy some more gold.

Puetz: Your steadfast bullishness about the metals is encouraging. I came close to selling out twice today. This gold market is gruelling. Both times I looked at my time frame and re-read some posts here and at Vronsky's and held fast. I have a knack for selling at bottoms, so we must be close.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 22:07
RJ Just one tonight, tempers are running too hot for me...>(Just one tonight, tempers are running too hot for me...):
It’s looking more like the Swiss will sell gold in ’97 and I guess the verdict is in on Belgium. I wouldn’t want to be a buyer until a bottom is found. If it breaks through $335, we’ll see $330. Auric - Remember my offer? $335 half a dozen times before $400 once? My $348 short is looking pretty good now, but I won’t cover yet, there’s gold in them thar depths. Silver Bolls, stos, and RSI say wait for retest of 4.58. I still expect a run to 5.00, but there is an outside chance we could see the 40s first. I won’t sell it here, I won’t buy it here. Saw 7.5 cents down in LA after the NY close. Looked like a single order that was bought back up in ten minutes. Don’t give up on platinum, before the year is out we should see $500 +. I still expect a lot of volatility here, but anywhere near $400 is a good buy for platinum. Especially if ( like me ) you could use some cost average of $430 - $440 platinum. As for palladium, I gave it up a couple weeks ago and haven’t looked back. Hearken back to my first post to the august group predicting that the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand. I also call for $275 before the month is out. The month isn’t over yet, but $275 is looking more like a delusion than anything else. Mike Sheller, was that you who said palladium will top out at $240? I’m 90% in agreement now. If so - good call. Question to all…. What do you think would happen if Russian shipments prove to not meet demand? The trip may not be over, but I’ll stick to platinum. A palladium trade these days has more potential for punishment than I’m willing to risk. As for gold…. a rally above $350 anytime this year is looking more and more unlikely.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:57
Jerry Rubin @bobrubin>(@bobrubin):
Bob Rubin: Howdy Mr.Spinmaster,spin me a good one about your BOSS! You can do it, Mr.Slick~~~~~~~

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:54
Puetz @ Central Bank gold PURCHASES>(@ Central Bank gold PURCHASES):
With all the talk about CB gold sales, few have talked about their purchases. In today's Gold Newsletter, Jim Blanchard says China has increased their gold reserves from 400 tonnes a few years ago to somewhere between 1000-and-1400 tonnes today. When China and Honk Kong merge on July 1, China will hold $170 billion in currency reserves. If it then brings its % of gold in that reserve mixture up to Western standards, China will have to buy more than 1 years supply of mined gold. That's a bullish scenario for gold.

Blanchard also reports that Hedge Funds have now accumulated a physical short-position of 500 tonnes of gold -- about 1/4 year's supply of mined gold. Hedge funds are normally trend followers. When the gold trend does finally turn up, this will create a massive short-covering rally.

Don't worry about figuring out the exact bottom in gold and silver. Buy now while the gettin' good.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:40
TED @Geoff>(@Geoff):
Geoff: Will do bro....EBN GOLd down .30 and Silver down a measly cent...
What's a penny these days anyway....can't even buy a damn gum-ball...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:18
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
John Disney: Yet more shibui! From and David S Roberts @
Shibui in this context means kind of sober,austere or understated. Nottoo gaudy or flashy. Older Japanese people don't like to show-off, andthis is often reflected in their tastes.Especially middle-aged women,who would be the most likely customers for expensive jewelry, wouldconsider it improper to dress to young by wearing something too gaudylike large pieces of yellow gold. Platinum satisfies this desire to hold back from showing off, and lets the owner feel something like a
sophisticated person, since it is actually quite valuable.For similar
reasons, women of this age prefer clothing from expensive, conservative

I hope it helps.

David Roberts

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:12
In the wee hours weeks ago we received an anonymous email which talked about WAR IN KOREA. It's impact on GOLD could be impressive. See ANONYMOUS GURU:

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:09

You YANKS are always welcome in the PROMISED LAND ,just PAY the TAXES and enjoy the fruits of your labour with what little you have left.

Geoff s

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 21:02
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down a nickle and Silver down a cent...Big I'm even startin to sound like a Canuck...and I only been here five years!...
Came within hours of movin here ( Canada ) 26 years ago but as they say..better late than never...What a WEIRD journey this old life is but where the hell is it takin mois...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:54
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Spot gold now at 339.20 in Sydney. Very difficult to believe that it would only go to 309 if the CBs sold everything as advocated in that Fed/MIT paper released earlier this month. It'll be tempting, if this price holds, to add to my position tomorrow.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:43
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Thanks Mike! Max is a good man even if he is a Bloody Brit....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:38
Mike Sheller Astrological Investor likes Skeptical Investor>( Astrological Investor likes Skeptical Investor):
TED: I like your friends.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:37
Puetz @ big deflation>(@ big deflation):
It seems, the big news these days is the emergence of deflation. PPI prices have been down 5 months in a row -- and they are certain to decline again in June. Virtually all commoditions have taken big falls this month. The CRB Index is down sharply. Retail sales have dropped three months in a row. Housing starts are down 3 months in a row. It appears that the US is either already in recession, or on the verge of one. Corporate earnings reports are now starting to come out consistently on the low side of Street estimates. The stock market may soon wake up to this fact. When it does, the deflationary process will become even stronger. The stock market wealth effect will go in reverse.

George Cole: I agree with you. Stocks could easily start down first, then gold could shoot up later. Initially, investors may interpret the commodity and asset deflation as bearish for gold. But once the deflation become powerful enough, scared investors will run into the metals as part of a flight to quality. Investors should buy gold and silver coins for the long run. So what if gold dips to $325 in the mean time? The fact that in the next few years it may have the same purchasing power as $20,000 does today is all the reason in the world to own it now -- and not worry about picking the exact bottom.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:28
TED @stockmarketbears>(@stockmarketbears):
For all you STOCK MARKET BEARS out there a good friend of mine has a site you would enjoy reading...It's called The Skeptical Investor...
now let's see if I can type the address without screwing it up....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:27
Mike Sheller I dunno>(I dunno):
PUETZ ( I assume it's YOU Steve ) : I don't know about Litco but if you ask me, that COULD have been Lyndon LaRouche. I've watched enuf of his political campaignfomercials to sort of recognize his style and verbal cadence. If that wasn;t him, it was a really great cyber-mimic. The Rich Little of chat lines. Hey, who knows? Kitco is where the elite meet & greet. No?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:26
Puetz @ pardon my English>(@ pardon my English):
I need to re-read my postings before I click. I also miss the spell-checker.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:24
Puetz @ John Disney>(@ John Disney):
John -- Regarding your 3:45 posting: You state that only the fools are lending the world governments. Yet, you also state that you don't believe the present global financial system will collapse. These leads to the next logical questions:

1 ) Will the fools keep lending to world governments -- even in light of the fact that government interest payments are rapidly zeroing in on total tax receipts?

2 ) If fools stop lending to world governments, the system WILL collapse.

I see no other alternatives, except these two cases.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:21
POL POT @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Hi Mike and thanks for the welcome! I promise not to slay any goldbugs or create any other dirty deeds! RE XAU: Well, we didn't close at the low of the day so it could have been worse. Haven't I seen YOU somewhere before?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:16
Did anyone notice that Lyndon LaRouche has a writing style and is wordy -- just like a certain frequent poster on Litco

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:09
Mike Sheller Last fella named Lyndon was NO friend o' mine>(Last fella named Lyndon was NO friend o' mine):
LYNDON LAROUCHE, and POL POT: Welcome to Kitco. It's so nice to have someone who ran for U.S. President several times, and someone else who was a de facto Presidente in his own right. So what's up, Pol? The nasty liberal revisionists in Cambodia got a hair up their assets over you and are lookin' to skin you alive? So you lam it to Kitco where the goldbugs won't notice so long as you hype the shiny yello? Just behave, buddy, and refrain from slaying millions of us, and maybe we'll let you settle in as a regular like the rest of the gang. After a stormy start, as per Kitco usual.. So what do you think of the XAU?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:08
Waite Worden>(
To John Disney:
Shibui has a number of definitions; all have konji -Chinese character assocations - which I can't give you here. I can give you the definitions: astringent; rough; rough wine. 2. quiet; tasty; tastful; have a quite taste; a quiet ( tasteful ) pattern; sing in a well-trained voice; a well-placed hit. 3. glum; sullen; sulky; look sullen ( glum ) ; be grim-faced. 4. tight; stingy.

I hope this helps.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:01
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 20:01
Mike Sheller EB get the Heebie Jeebies>(EB get the Heebie Jeebies):
EB: All things in Moderation was the catchphrase of Pythagoras. At least it allows us ALL things, as long as they are in moderation! Aristotle was no slouch either. He also knew how to play the gold/platinum spread. Good reading? Man, that's tough, but you couldn't do much better than going to the source: Madame Helena Petrovna Blavatsky and her Magnum Opus THE SECRET DOCTRINE. Heavy, turgid, and fabulous...It's a big mother of a book, but it is a monster. Also, if you think you can take the real thing, try Thinking and Destiny by Harold Percival. If you stay sane, you will learn more than could ever be expressed here in cyberspace. If you wig out, don't come crying to me. Appreciate your interest.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:54
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Gold looked as bad on the Floor today as one can expect by looking at the charts. Once we broke 341.70 there were no buyers. Actually once we broke 343.00 in Aug you could tell we were going down. I would think we are going to close down tomorrow. How low I'm not sure, maybe somethin like $1.00 - $2.00 which would be 339.0 to 340 ( Aug )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:48

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:41
O J SIMPSON @golfcourse>(@golfcourse):
Give me back my Heisman Trophy!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:39
panda @gold.chart.triangle>(@gold.chart.triangle):
Hold on tight! Looks like a test coming! ( Uh Oh! Don't think we're going to get away with it this time! ) Here's the chart for the Yellow stuff, eeeehhhhhhhhhhh............. Long Bond is doing its 'thing' quite nicely though. I know, small consolation... BBL....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:36
WW @New England>(@New England):
Ron: Dont expect anything but disdain and excuses for your HK Liberaterian friends from the US. Our Govt needs ChiCom money to prevent the bond mkt/financial meltdown ( just ask John Huang ) . I just wish you would stop feeling sorry for people who want to disrupt Chinese Society and damage our Insiders relationship with The Peoples Republic of China. You sir are a traitor. Hey so what if the Senate passed a ( important word but good political cover ) non binding resolution for Clinton to sanction China for advanced missle sales to Iran. Admin just said, in response, that they are not destabalizing.However, THE CHINESE SALES OF US BONDS AND PUCHASE OF GOLD SURELY WOULD. Why was greenspan over there a few weeks ago HMM. I am just glad our govt condemns Chinese human rights violations just like say Cuba.HAHA. Castro needs to make some foreign exchange to buy US Treasuries and then he can kill or torture anyone he likes and will undoubtedly be a media darling. Fidel just invest in OEX calls with the nat'l treasury and this position may be soon achieved. Fidel, get with the program!!!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:33
MoreGold @More doom and Gloom>(@More doom and Gloom):
Kitco showing Gold down 1.30 at 339.10 ! It seems every day now there
are more news items to whip up the bearish sentiment ( Belgium and Switzerland today ) . Well if the CB's are going to sell then let's get it over with. More damage being done now with the uncertainty than
if they just acted.
Gold miners will be the biggest losers in all of this as the price weakens and more mines become unprofitable and are shut down.
Looks like the 340. mark is being broken now and we will see where the next support level is. $325 ?
Hard to beleive.........

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:31
POT HEAD @polpot>(@polpot):
Hi Pol!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:29
WDL: Bubba does inhale!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:25
Bill Buckler Gold Bottom? Are You Nuts?!>(Gold Bottom? Are You Nuts?!):
Addendum to 19:15 post. The response was from the newsgroups - NOT from you ladies and gentlemen here at Kitco.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:17
WDL @just kidding>(@just kidding):
POL POT...I thought was Clinton's nickname..oh, that's right, he said he
didn't inhale!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:17
WDL @just kidding>(@just kidding):
POL POT...I thought was Clinton's nickname..oh, that's right, he said he
didn't inhale!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:15
Bill Buckler Gold bottom? - Are you Nuts!?>(Gold bottom? - Are you Nuts!?):
Fascinating response to my posting of bottom in $A Gold
price, which I posted to several of the investment
newgroups as well. Almost universal reaction was along
the lines of Gold hasn't bottomed, you idiot! Take
a look at any Gold chart

True - *in $US terms* - it hasn't. But then, of course,
I never said it had. The point was that, technically,
it *has* bottomed in $A terms and historically, Gold
bottoms in $A terms have always preceded, by an indeterminate
amount of time, Gold bottoms in $US terms.

With $US Gold down $2.70 overnight, my e-mail
today should be *really* juicy. Of course, there is
a G-7 meeting coming up in Denver this weekend. And we
are getting close to the date of the FOMC meeting.
And then there is the Hong Kong handover.

George Cole may well be right in predicting a final
downside spike for $US Gold. Gold has only been below
$US 340 twice this year. BTW, the article on the
TED spread he mentioned in his posting ( June 18: 9:35 ) was
excellent. All Kitcoites should check it out.

I am going to be following the developments on $A/$US
Gold at my website. I have just posted an update to
the June 16 chart taking in the overnight fall in $US
Gold and showing its effect on the $A price.

The $A is a Dollar Block currency and, at last measurement,
the sixth most traded currency in the world. $A Gold
( and Aussie Gold stocks ) gave a terrific advance warning
both in 1986 and in 1993. Right now, $A Gold has
popped up but Aussie Gold stocks are languishing.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:11
WW @New England>(@New England):
Any prick in the stk mkt must coincide from now on ( as evidenced today ) with bond strength and definitely gold weakness ( note the normal last minute raid today ) . Message put stk money and fear of losing into bonds ( we have a trillion to rollover in 1998 ) . Gold down when mkt down so no safe haven status. Obvious when you have 1 trillion to roll not to mention other debtors rollovers the last thing you want is gold to rise because you need every last penny. If gold starts to rise above its 100 day moving average and gain any sponsorship then financials are toast if even a little capital hesitates. Conversely if even a little capital goes to gold the horse gets out of the barn and financials become toast. Again all must keep going to financials especially with a 1 trillion dollar rollover and not even a scintilla of capital can go into gold and thus it catapults to cause even a litrtle ques re capital flows into financials which could start a snowball crash. CONFIDENCE UBER ALLES!!!!! Heil Merrill!!!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 19:11
POL POT @incarceration>(@incarceration):
I'm not a bad guy!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 18:53
George S. Cole selling climax?>(selling climax?):
Bullion already down another 30 cents. Gold stock volume picked up today, but still is not big enough for a selling climax. Looks like we are going to get one soon though. Early next week, perhaps.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 18:45
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 18:41
George S. Cole stocks and gold>(stocks and gold):
nailz; The next gold bull will not be triggered by a sudden burst of public demand. The public will only come after an uptrend is firmly established. Your preferred scenario of bullion starting up before stock market tanks would indeed be the best one for gold investors.

But the move could also start after stocks have moved south in a big way. All depends on whether the smart money sees the next dip in stocks as merely another brief 10% correction or the start of something much bigger.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 18:01
Ron Is Hong Kong Jittery?>(Is Hong Kong Jittery?):
Bob: Ostriches and sleepwalkers. I'm not even sure that there are that many people in Hong Kong who are completely sanguine about this handover. There is an interesting editorial by Suzanne Fields in today's Washington Times about the palpable apprehension there. It's in the Opinion section. Take a look at it and tell me what you think of it.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 17:37
Bob @...Hong Kong to become Plato's republic...>(@...Hong Kong to become Plato's republic...):
...except that the philosphers are Red and the administrators are Rich investors on the take. How else do you reconcile the calm that prevails amoung the Rich HK capitalist class ?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 17:10
Ron Spudalypse>(Spudalypse):
Spud Master: I'm real concerned about it. I honestly don't know how the world can dodge all those bullets. It seems fairly likely to me that the balloon will go up in at least one of them. We can't forget, of course, that Hong Kong *may* be the spark that sets off the powder keg. The PRC will almost certainly crack down on the several hundred thousand libertarians running around in that great city. The West will not be pleased and there will be plenty of resistance within HK itself, leading to ever greater repression. It'll be a real pressure cooker, if you ask me. And if things get hot and peppery enough, I expect China to move against Taiwan in what will be the ultimate act of defiance and belligerence.

If that happens, I think that we can expect that Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and, perhaps, Syria, will recognize the opportunity that's being presented to them: The possibility of involving the US in a multifront, non-nuclear conflict that she is ill-prepared for after years of military downsizing at the hands of our ithyphallic Boy-President ( incidentally, one of the rumors about that distinguishing mark Paula Jones saw, identifies it as a penile tattoo of a bald eagle -- and a recent one at that since Jennifer Flowers said last week that she doesn't recall seeing anything like it in her ten-year affair with him ) . We do not have the military that we had in 1990. And White House leadership is nothing short of a joke.

That's a worst case scenario, of course. But it's my two cents worth, thanks to inflation.

North Korea is ready for a final battle with the United States and South Korea if they seriously want a showdown.
-- A North Korean military spokesman, Wednesday, 6/18/97

At Group L, Stoffel oversees six first-rate programmers, a managerial challenge roughly comparable to herding cats.
-- The Washington Post Magazine, June 9, 1985

You couldn't even prove the White House staff sane beyond a reasonable doubt.
-- Ed Meese, on the Hinckley verdict

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:57
Bob @...whatever happened to that theory about whites leading yellow ?>(@...whatever happened to that theory about whites leading yellow ?):
If I recall correctly, there were a few pundits writing about that 'old saw' theory about whites leading the yellow metal. Anyone care to shed light on this topic ?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:51
Bob @...waiting for post Monsoon season to lift gold demand>(@...waiting for post Monsoon season to lift gold demand):
It's fundamental my 'Dear Watson'...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:49
IMHO the precious metals are still a good buy. A better buy, if I could find the ticker symbol for JCI Limited.
But enough of that. Somewhere under the morass of paper and electrons that constitute our global economy lie the fundamental commodoties of our existence. Someday, somehow, will there not arise a longing for things tangible and real? Hey, US$5467.20 per pound is a lot to pay for something that is worthless, but somebody is paying it today, aren't they?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:34
nailz IMHO.....>(IMHO.....):
All..... Have said this before and will again.....IMHO for a stock market decline to have real effect on the price of gold, gold will have had to already bottomed and started up when the DOW begins its' decline. If gold has started up and has caught the eye of investors, there will be great clamor to get out of a loosing investment and into one making money. If the attitude toward gold is as it is now when the decline starts, it will not be positive for gold. What we want to see is gold to bottom and begin a rally while the DOW is still going up or flat. They run up together for a while, the let the DOW begin to decline. Again, IMHO...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:30
Rambo LSteve>(LSteve):

LSteve ( 10:29 ) About nazi gold, PBS zeroed-in on that
terrible time in world history at the behest of the
Credit Moguls; to place the proverbial stake into the
heart of gold, the Dracula that keeps them from
completing their goal of world domination. Every
government is controlled by these monsters. I Wonder who
the real blood suckers really are? It is so obvious,
that even a blind man can see it.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:22
Korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
JOHN DISNEY -- re SHIBUI: the need for solitude, acceptance of all things, and quest for enlightenment.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:19
Byron @ Looking Through The Ruins:>(@ Looking Through The Ruins:):
Well until 98 is taking out, the Elliott Wave A-B-C correction ending June 4th is still holding. If that breaks, then we have several more weeks of waiting. Maybe the XAU just has to close that gap at 96-97.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:15
Korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here):
JOHN DISNEY -- re SHUIBUI character see

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:14
EB @Mike Sheller 6/17 06:39>(@Mike Sheller 6/17 06:39):
Thanks for the nice welcome. Excellent post! I printed it out and stuck it on the board. I concur with everything ( although I am, humbly speaking, not an Astologer ) . I do find it fascinating, though, the science/art. I would like to add on the same subject in my limited understanding. You did discuss Elliot wave with Octaves in nature. It can also be likened to the mathmetician/architect Fibonacci. His calculations follow nature also - Retracements,oscillation, sound waves,. In nature and metaphysics this can relate to opposites as well. Cold-hot, wet-dry, good-bad.. the yin/yang thing.

It all makes you want to go Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Mike, you are good as GOLD ( or silver ) in my book! Keep on it! Perhaps you can recommend some good reading?...

Anyway, I think I'll go meditate now - but not before one last post.



Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 16:10
TED @glenn>(@glenn):
Glenn ( 20:15 6/17 ) Good call on DOW!...XAU down 2.71 @ 99.32

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:55
miro opinion?>(opinion?):
Bob A: Where will the money go ( except of turning paper into ashes ) ?
You can not have a market crash without money trying to exit the market.
Bob, if you have any idea where it’ll go let me know - I would like to
be there first.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:48
6pak TED spread>(TED spread):
panda June 18 @ 13:38 Thanks for the information, it appears to be
what I am looking for. George S. Cole : Thanks also.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:43
EB @server down>(@server down):
It is quite scary to think how much of our lives are tied to the internet and the direction we are being led ( BG & crew ) . My server was down for almost 48 hours. I was perturbed and scared at the same time. My link to the world was severed for a day and a half. I rely, now and more so in the future, on the net to bring me a stable and healthy income. My provider blamed Sprint. Sprint had no answers... The blame really doesn't matter. One fact ( or question ) does remain as we go, merrrily and with unbridled passion, into the future: I hope BILL - G. that is - will be R&Ding the heck out of a GIGANTIC backup/redundant system. Or minor disasters could ensue...

We as investors and speculators can appreciate this and know that we must be diversified in all aspects of our lives.

Diversification... moderation... I just like the way that rolls off the tongue.

Wasn't it Aristotle's Golden Rule - Moderation. I love that old guy.



Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:39
Bob A opinion>(opinion):
In my opinion when the stk. mkt. tanks gold will do nothing or drop. I don't see why any stk investor would switch to gold or gold stks. Todays gold action is very neg. in my view. I think 325 to 330 is not far away.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:23
George S. Cole gold bear>(gold bear):
This gold bear will perist until the financial markets head south in a big way and new investment paradigms develop. Upside stock blowoff = downside gold washout. When investor demand for gold takes off, the CBs will be irrelevant. Until then, the bulls will continue to get their heads handed to them.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:20
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
John Disney: Broker has no idea about BLYDY or DROOY or Buffels ( ?who? ) . However in current action BLYDY is taking a c**p down to 1.93 from 2.25 yesterday and 2.4 day before on heavy volume. In ADRs of course. I only had me toe in and yanked that when the water got cold an Ol' Bess is back on the gun rack. Curious now about all those other colder feet.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:19
Jack Experts see $10 billion April trade gap >(Experts see $10 billion April trade gap ):

They also said that $1.09 billion of gold ( approx 3.2
million ounces ) was shipped out in March 97? How can
this be, when US annual production is roughly 12 million

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:17
miro predictions for xau and stock market>(predictions for xau and stock market):
A prediction@xau: looks like one more prediction 99.85 will be the
lowest the xau will get today going wrong. So far today’s low was
already at 99.22.

It’s all in money flow. Until money turns away from High Tech vaporware
all predictions are mostly wishful thinking. OTOH the change should not
be far away. Just a few news from vaporware market:
Oracle Corp shares fell as much as 6.1 percent Wednesday after the
software company's earnings failed to match Wall Street's more
optimistic forecasts.

Oracle, the world's second-biggest software company, said its fiscal
fourth quarter earnings rose 35 percent from a year earlier, to $359.9
million, or $0.54 a share. That matched Wall Street's consensus
forecast, according to First Call, but fell short of some investors'
Analysts cautioned that the technology sector, which has run up in the
past month, may face greater difficulties in the weeks ahead.

technology upgrade spending may be slowing as companies re-direct 1998
capital spending to remedy Year 2000 software glitches. A correction of
10 to 15 percent may lay ahead this summer as investor awareness of the
issue takes hold.

Hmm, … company earning rose by 35% but that’s not enough for investors …
Somebody please tell me that the current stock market value is based on
any realistic foundation.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:08
XAU down 3.21 @98.82

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:06
NEWS @for U>(@for U):
By Brian Spoors

LONDON, June 18 ( Reuter ) - News of a Belgian government proposal to sell 26 tonnes of gold a year in the form of commemorative coins impacted gold prices in Europe late on Wednesday, dealers and analysts said.

Gold was hovering around $342.00 per ounce when the news came out and immediately dipped to just above $340.00, its lowest of the day.

Belgium intends to sell 26 tonnes of gold in coin form each year to a total of 133 tonnes to reduce the country's debt. The proposal must be adopted by parliament before it could pass into law.

Belgium owns just under 600 tonnes of gold and sold 203 tonnes from its reserves in March last year.

``It's the timing which has hit the market as much as anything,'' one analyst said, referring to a ``cascade effect'' of bearish news concerning any talk of central bank gold sales.

Last week a study on behalf of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank said central bank gold reserves had very limited benefit and should be sold.

Central banks worldwide hold about 35,000 tonnes of gold. The impact of sales as envisaged in the study would be to reduce the gold price from a nominal $350 to $309 dollars, it said.

The gold price has been subdued all year under the threat of central banks especially in Europe selling gold to bring finances into line with Maastricht Treaty criteria on entry to European Monetary Union due in 1999.

Last month Germany, hitherto a pillar of support for gold as a reserve asset, got into a public wrangle between the ministry of finance and the Bundesbank over revaluing gold reserves and using the windfall profit to help the country meet EMU criteria.

In March Switzerland, another staunch supporter of gold, also called for its gold reserves to be revalued.

The Swiss government also proposed selling what was estimated to be about 40 tonnes of gold a year for 10 years to establish a humanitarian fund to help survivors of the Holocaust and other tragedies.

In January this year the Netherlands announced it had sold 300 tonnes of gold from its reserves.

Last year the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) agreed to sell up to five million ounces of gold in order to boost its fund for supporting the world's poorest countries.

Even although the sales would only happen if the money could not be raised by other means and would not begin until the next centrury, the psychological impact on the gold market was profound.

According to gold industry market research group Gold Fields Mineral Services net central bank gold sales last year were 239 tonnes against an average net disposal over the past 10 years of 213 tonnes.

``The fear of central banks sales is much more significant than the substance,'' an analyst said after the Belgium announcement.

Beglium announced it sold 175 tonnes in April 1995 ``to another central bank'' . In June 1992 it sold 202 tonnes to bring its gold reserves into proportion with its neighbours and in March 1989 127 tonnes of the yellow metal.

13:26 06-18-97

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 15:02
POL POT @cambodia>(@cambodia):

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:59
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Comex report: Gold down 2.70; Silver down 6.7 cents; Platinum down 4.10; and Palladium down down 8.45...XAU down 2.81 @ 99.22...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:46
ALL.... Well, I guess that solves the puzzle as to which way the break would head. As if there was any doubt.....George S. Cole..... Get ready for the spike. Soon. Unwinding the short XAU position from last week. Looking to go long XAU calls soon.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:44
John Disney>(
To All
Re Belgian coins
You must know that ten years ago news of a coin issue of this type
would have been taken as very bullish - ( I recall a hirohito related
gold coin in the mid 1980's I think ) - It was taken as a NEW demand for
gold. Now it is viewed as another way the poor desparate CB are trying
to relieve themselves of the gold burden. Who says the CB are not going
to replenish stocks from the market .
Suppose the coins are soaked up immediately and the people ask for more - What happens then old bean This reminds me of the US gold auctions in the latter 1970s.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:36
Roebear @XAUdown>(@XAUdown):^XAU XAUnow 99.47@2:30EDT, anymore predictions?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:31
John Disney>(
Hello out there
Anxiously awaiting best english traslation of
japanese word shibui = also does this word have
a chinese written equivalent. Reason I ask is that
CONTRARY to large preference for gold in SE asian
countries, Gold Mining Newletter for June ( mining
journal gold service ) reports that China is fast
becoming an important market for platinum jewellery.
Demand in 1996 is estimated at 75,000 oz. For
comparison European demand is 120,000 oz. US demand
increased from 65,000 oz in 1995 to 90,000 in 1996.
Japanese demand is a stunning 1,500,000 oz.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:12
TED @stupidcomputer>(@stupidcomputer):
Apresiction= apreDiction in Cape Breton....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:09
TED @aprediction>(@aprediction):
Apresiction ( 13:36 ) You were WRONG! XAU down 2.43 @ 99.60

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:09
NJ war>(war):
ACW : Hooray.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 14:00
ACW war>(war):
Spud Master:

You can rule out Pakistan and India going to war. They are controlled by the English secret peace weapon known as: Cricket.

It is a well known fact that no country that plays cricket has ever declared war on a fellow cricket playing country.

There have been civil wars between cultures where only one part of the culture played cricket and the other did not. Such was the Boer War at the turn of the century in Sth Africa. The British threw everything they had at the Boer's.

After the Boers were defeated several of them learned how to play cricket and it has been fairly peaceful ever since.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:54
TED @spudalypse>(@spudalypse):
Spudalypse ( 12:22 ) I think number 3 is the most imminent although I agree with with Bill D ( 12:51 ) that the Arab-Israel conflict is the most threatening event out there...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:47
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
But to think that proud, free peoples will meekly give up control of their national economic life; to imagine that intelligent citizens will continue to swallow
the contradictory soothing syrups spooned out by duplicitous diplomats; to lock in stresses that would escalate tensions into conflicts -- that is absurdity
beyond the imagination of playwrights.

The former is a quote from William Safire's essay of June 18 '97
on the economic situation in Europe

I feel the same goes for the US and Canada

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:38
TED spread info ( Treasury-EuroDollar spread )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:36
a prediction @xau>(@xau):
99.85 will be the lowest the xau will get today.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:36
panda @More.Gold.Sales!>(@More.Gold.Sales!):
Gold coins anyone, courtesy of Belgium;

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:35
Byron @ Psychological Testing:>(@ Psychological Testing:):
Last time I checked the delayed quote on the May Gold Futures ( the near month ) , the low of the day was $340.50. Is this a test? Seems $340.5 is trying to hold. It could be the boys are just putting a little psychological pressure on the weak hands. Maybe!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:35
Breeze oh, omnipotent savior Lyndon!>(oh, omnipotent savior Lyndon!):
All of the salient points in the Lyndon LaRouche post could have been condensed into 90% fewer words. The pertinent subject matter therein has been well-known to most on this forum for quite some time, despite what Lyndon may think. Read the post, and note the number of self-aggrandizing references used. What a WINDBAG!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:07
George s. Cole stocks lead bullion>(stocks lead bullion):
WW: Looks like the gold stocks are leading bullion down; not visa versa. The stocks lead and bullion follows. This fundamental paradigm of the gold market has not changed

6 pack: You probably can get more info on the TED spread through an internet search engine.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:05
Bear Bears@cosensus>(Bears@cosensus):
As of last night there were 27 % bulls down from 29% the night before

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 13:04
Roebear @HersheyBears>(@HersheyBears):
John Disney: I am sure we will bear with you.
ALL: Looks like XAU broke 100^XAU

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:52
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Lyndon: What was the first big financial blow of 1997?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:51
BillD Spud!!!>(Spud!!!):
Spud...Please do not overlook the Arab/Isreal confrontation possibilities. It could be the most serious of all ... nuclear /chemical and biological in nature....and perhaps the most imminent and with the greatest potential for US involvement - or - terrorist attacks here.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:50
bw Dow utilities>(Dow utilities):
The battle for the soul of the stock market continues on page c3 of the wsj. The three charts currently show a divergence between the utilities and the other two averages. Draw a down trend line across the peaks of the utilities. This trend line goes off the chart and back to 1993 where it tops out at 257. In my opinion if we fail here and take out say 215-220 on the way down the three charts on page c3 will show a large divergence, taking out 208 a radical divergence. We need to take out 230 on the way up for the stock mania to continue. So far its a cliff hanger.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:22
Spud Master too many people, too few resources>(too many people, too few resources):
There are four pending conflicts currently:
1 ) North Korea vs. South Korea
2 ) Mainland China vs. Taiwan
3 ) Iran vs. The West ( proxy Saudis )
4 ) Pakistan vs. India

I expect that just one of them will be taken as an opportunity for the
rest of them to go. I'd guess that China has already told us/bought/assured that in exchange for turning a deaf ear to North Korea's attack, we will turn a deaf ear to an invasion of Taiwan. Otherwise, how will we ( US ) be able to fight a dual war with Iran while we are in Korea? India and Pakistan will of course take adaantage of distracted Powers to fullfill their own particular deathwish.

I doubt any amount of gold selling/manipulation by the CBs or Fed can protect our stock market. Does anyone here think the above conflicts won't happen more or less simultaneously?


Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:17
cyclist 403@bottom>(403@bottom):
Platinum will find support in the 403.If support is held, 550 is in the
realm of the possibility within the next three weeks with gold at 356-360.After that,IMHO,Gold and Platinum will retrace and make new lows
into September.There will be a worldwide stockmarket blow-off at the same time.Liquidity problems will make the gold stocks go down initially,with
bullion going up.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 12:07
Lyndon LaRouche @is a Goldbug>(@is a Goldbug):
At any time, soon, the second big financial blow
of 1997 will bring a new round of temporary
panic into financial markets around the world. If it
has not already arrived by the time you read this
report, you may expect it to arrive, soon. There
are reasons to expect this next round to be worse
than the blows which began to pummel financial
markets this past mid-March. The question is: is
this up-coming, next downturn likely to be The
Big One, that sinks the international financial
system? That is a possibility, but, I tend to believe
that relevant institutions could, and will contain the
next crunch before it reaches the point of
detonating the Big One. How soon should we
expect the Big One? Or, is that the wrong

During the recent weeks, most of those
highly-placed sources, with whom EIR is in
frequent discussion of these matters, have
expressed agreement with my estimate, that the
next international financial crunch is due soon, and
that, when it strikes, it will be much worse than
the crunch which hit beginning mid-March. A
significant number of high-ranking sources, have
made similar forecasts, independently of my own.
Any reader who has had the opportunity to scan
the news media of key countries in Eurasia during
recent weeks, would have encountered published
statements showing that highly placed insiders are
warning of an oncoming financial downturn much
worse than that which blew over a couple months

Meanwhile, an increasing number from relevant
circles are coming to share my estimate, that the
present international financial system will be
extinct before the turn of the century. My point
has been, that there is no way we can stop the
international financial {Titanic} from sinking; but,
that we can, and must act to save the passengers,
before they go down with the doomed ship. The
passengers we must pull off the sinking ship, are
the United States, and other nations, and their

The importance of my forecast, is that it is
designed to forewarn governments and others, to
take timely preventive action to prevent the
present series of international financial crises from
setting off a general, global economic
break-down crisis. It is not a matter of
predicting what will happen; it is a matter of
turning the financial {Titanic} about, soon enough
to avoid hitting the lurking icebergs which lie just

What must be done, to turn things around, is no
small thing. It is a very drastic action. It involves
action by a powerful group of nations, to bring the
present international financial and monetary
system to a sudden end, and, simultaneously erect
a new, and healthy form of international financial,
monetary, and trade system to replace the dying,
utterly bankrupt existing financial, monetary, and
trade system. This is no small matter.

This point is made clearer, by referring to a
meeting which I had, back during the mid- 1970s,
with Jacques Rueff, the famous economist who
had been President Charles de Gaulle's leading
advisor on economic matters. The purpose of the
meeting, was to review my assessment of the
then-current trends in the international monetary
system, and to discuss a proposal for international
monetary reform, which I was putting on the table
at that time. M. Rueff stated that he agreed with
my general assessment of the international
monetary situation, but warned that none of the
relevant existing politicians had the intellect and
courage to act. I share with you now, the
illustration which he stated to me then; it will help
you to appreciate the difficulties of
decision-making which will tend to puzzle the will
of key statesmen, such as President Bill Clinton.

M. Rueff summarized the history behind France's
successful adoption of the so-called heavy
franc. He had proposed it as necessary, but
President de Gaulle soon returned to present the
reply, that all of his other advisors opposed the
proposal. M. Rueff explained, that he had replied
to his President: I stake my entire life's reputation
on the certainty that the heavy franc will succeed.
As, of course, it did. It was that commitment by
an outstanding professional, which prompted de
Gaulle to respond, after a reflective pause, with
words to the effect: We shall do it.

Although more and more leading figures,
especially senior ones, are coming around to
acceptance of my general forecast on the nature
of the present international financial crisis, virtually
none, so far, have been willing to stick their necks
out publicly on the crucial political issues of
needed institutional reform of the monetary and
financial systems. Therefore, so far, the likelihood
that the world will not drop soon into a general
breakdown crisis, hangs, at least to a very large
degree, on the recognition of my authority as an
economic forecaster.

Our President, and some other heads of state, are
being carried down a raging financial torrent of
successive financial crises and economic
disasters, toward the rocks. Soon, they must act,
in the sense that de Gaulle's support of Rueff's
proposal was crucial in rescuing France from the
wreckage which the Fourth Republic's policies
had made of the national economy. So far, mine is
the only publicly visible forecast which addresses
that awesome reality. If heads of state recognize
my authority in this specialized matter, that is
good; but, the best among today's elected officials
are not likely to rely on their own judgment,
alone. If even the best among them do not think
my authority can be sold to a significant part of
their constituency, they are unlikely to act.

The present circumstances of deepening,
intertwined, international financial, monetary, and
economic crisis, have produced a situation, both
in the U.S.A., and world-wide, in which the
controversy over my personal authority as an
economist has become a central practical political
issue of policy-shaping for a growing number of
governments and other potent institutions. On this
account, it is necessary to point to my uniquely
successful record as an economic forecaster, and
to emphasize the source of the outstanding
success I have enjoyed on that account, during a
period of more than three decades to date.

Under the present conditions, as defined by the
accelerating rate of degeneration of the present
international financial system, especially since the
U.S. financial crunch of October 1987, the
question of who is a competent economic
forecaster, and what is the source of his, or her
competence, has become a first-rate question of
national policy-making for all leading
governments. On that account, it is necessary that
my warnings and proposals be juxtaposed to a
summary chronicle of my record as a forecaster
since 1956.

On that account, it is necessary for the general
welfare of our people and their posterity, that the
proofs of my authority in this matter be conveyed
in a prominent and forceful way. For that reason,
the following chronicle, summarizing my history as
a forecaster, is presented.

The political problem

The gravest economic problem faced by leading
governments today, is, that most governments,
and the majority of U.S. citizens continue to
disagree with my warnings about the need for
drastic actions to deal with the fact that the
international financial system is already hopelessly
bankrupt. Over this issue, the officials of the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) have
expressed open and intense personal hatred
against me. In and around the U.S. government,
for example, some of the most violent
disagreement comes from the wild-eyed free
trade fanatics, such as the neo-conservative and
theo-conservative followers of Texas Senator Phil
Gramm and Diamond Pat Robertson.
Otherwise, some of the most hysterical
disagreement is expressed by the managers and
dupes of that giant Ponzi Scheme known as the
mutual-funds market. Inside the U.S.A., the most
numerous opposition comes from ordinary wishful
thinkers, whose argument is fairly summed up by
the words: You are wrong. You will see, that
they would never let such a thing happen to my

The issue is not simply that they happen to
disagree with my forecast. The problem is, their
opposition to our government's taking the kinds of
actions needed to prevent the worst, world-wide
economic depression in modern history from
becoming an irreversible, and horrible state of
affairs for a long time to come. The problem is
that very large ration of people who refuse,
irrationally, hysterically, to get off the sinking
financial {Titanic} until after it has actually sunk.

Here, inside the U.S.A., for example, there are
two related, but distinct topics to consider, when
reviewing political attitudes on the present global
financial crisis.

Really sane people in the Americas, Europe, and
Japan, such as trade-unionists, farmers,
industrialists, and so on, agree that the 1990s
have turned out to be hard times, and are
becoming worse. In these countries, most senior
officials from the ranks of industrialists, bankers,
and other relevant professionals, see a series of
ever-worse hard bumps in the financial and
economic roads immediately ahead; those who
deny reality on this matter are typified by the U.S.
Yuppie ( Baby Boomer ) stratum among
officials in government and the private sector, not
to speak of those wild-eyed specimens who
dominate the ranks of mutual-funds managements.
The rising, persisting strike wave which is shaking
the governments of Europe, reflects increasing
popular perception of the reality, that hard times
are here, and becoming ever worse.

Meanwhile, in these same countries, those, like
the neo-conservatives, who insist that free trade
will kiss your boo-boos and make them better,
such as the Contract on America enthusiasts
here, form the political base of support for
growing, mass-based forms of pro-fascist
movements from inside the so-called mainstream
political system. The Padania separatist
movement in Italy is only typical of the
proto-Mussolini form of fascism building up
across Europe today.

Thus, the worsening crisis of the international
financial system, has evoked a sharp, growing,
mass-based political division within society. This
division is led, on the one side, by the viewpoint
expressed by Europe's rising mass-strike ferment,
as echoed by the revival of the AFL- CIO here in
the U.S.A. The opposing tendency is typified by
the reactionary, fascist-tending
neo-conservatives, such as the Contract on
America ferment here in the U.S.A. The first,
looks to the government of the nation-state for its
essential part in organizing solutions. The second,
is committed to undermining and destroying the
existing form of sovereign nation-state, as the
Contract on America typifies the revival of the
Nashville spirit of the Confederate States of
America, and President Woodrow Wilson's
revival of the Ku Klux Klan, here in the U.S.A.
The first current demands, that the national
government act, implicitly demanding new
Franklin Delano Roosevelts. The second,
wild-eyed free trader current, like anarchistic,
right-wing parodies of Bolsheviks, demands the
dissolution of the existing nation-state form of

The holocaust now continuing to target millions of
Hutu and other victims, a holocaust directed by
dictator Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who has
vowed publicly to outdo Adolf Hitler, is a
cohering expression of the new forms of fascism
the present financial crisis is fostering.

Forecasting is not 'predicting'

The most significant feature of my forecasts, is
that they were never presented as predictions,
but as a scientific analysis of both the economic
and related political directions in which present
policy-making was sending economies. The
crucial feature of my own work, is that I freed
myself from those methods of statistical
forecasting, which are the common cause of
failure in most honest attempts at forecasting.

Milton Friedman, had caused a few terrible
catastrophes. The competence of an economic
forecaster lies, first of all, in his choice of method.
My own work should not be treated as an
exception to the rule. Therefore, a few summary
points are added to this report, as a guide to
better understanding of the record of success
shown by the accompanying chronicle of my

The trick in such forecasting, is to begin by
putting to one side financial and monetary
processes as such, to concentrate, as Leibniz did
in founding economic science, on physical
economy. Treat economic processes in their
respect as an efficient interrelationship between
man and nature. Then, examine the way in which
certain types of financial and monetary policy
regulate the decision-making processes regulating
the economic side of man's interaction with

Finally, as a matter of prefacing the following
chronicle, consider my use of what I named The
Triple Function ( Figure 1 ) . For the purpose of
presenting the factors of relative timing in respect
to the currently ongoing series of financial crises, I
asked that attention be focussed upon the
presently operative form of interdependency
among hyperbolic growth of the financial bubble's
nominal values, relative to the increase of
monetary circulation required to sustain that
bubble. I asked that we examine the
interdependency of that financial-monetary
coupling, with the looting of the physical economy
required to support the monetary expansion
needed to support the financial bubble. That
shows, in functional terms, not only why the
present international financial and monetary
system is inevitably doomed; it also shows that
we are already in the vicinity of those parts of the
three curves, at which the present
financial-monetary process is virtually
discontinuous, that the entire system is overripe to
go all the way down, right now. There is very little
time to waste, before taking the necessary
political actions.

On that basis, without requiring any additional
information, I know, with certainty, that the
international financial system, with its attached
leading banks, is already hopelessly bankrupt.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 11:23
Ron Long Post>(Long Post):
Sorry about the length of that last post. I got the story from the Associated Press News Wire at AFAIK, the only way you can access it is through an affiliated newspaper ( one whose page loads in a reasonable time! ) . Another source of streaming news for Kitcoites.

Kitco is great exercise for the ol' brain. Too bad it doesn't take care of all our exercise requirements. Off to the gym.

A plan is just a tangent vector on the manifold of reality.
Skratch Garrison

What are politicians going to tell people when the
Constitution is gone and we still have a drug problem?
-- William Simpson, A.C.L.U.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 11:19
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
XAU down 1.03 and Dow down 52....Weather so bad am losing the satellite signal...Time fer chainsawin in the rain....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 11:19
JohnC On Goldwatch in Sydney>(On Goldwatch in Sydney):
Good Morning to you and all other contributor's to Kitco. Perth, Sydney, all So.Hemis. going into winter. @ 01:15 air 9.0c with light rain. Back to Gold...I find an extraordinary bearish pall sems to be emanating from the entrails of the FT conference in Prague. Why isn't gold trading at the legendary $325 an ounce ?

Happy trading to all

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 11:07
George s. Cole stock market>(stock market):
GLENN: Looks like the market has indeed made a short-term peak, but I doubt we have seen the final top. Small cap stocks still lagging; these should have a strong blowoff before the final top. A bull market as powerful as this more likely to terminate with a huge reversal than just a gradual loss of momentum. Say up 300 points one morning, but then down 150 points by the close. .

Bullion flat today, but gold stocks continue to drop. Their relentless decline even on days when bullion rallies, probably is signalling a final break in the yellow metal quite shortly. I suspect that when gold does break below $340, the gold stocks will hold up quite well. That will be the time to buy.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 11:06
TED @lsteve>(@lsteve):
L Steve @ Frontline: Panda is the ONE who mentioned it so ask him...I meant to watch it but forgot.....John Disney ( 4:44 ) I saw iron Mike in person a few times and never saw this knee lock....but that was in his prime!...and I think the rape charges were bogus....Evander ain't the white Night the media makes em out to be...either...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:58
Ron Bulgaria & Slovenia? Next is Albania, Russia, & Haiti!!!>(Bulgaria & Slovenia? Next is Albania, Russia, & Haiti!!!):
9:11 p.m. EDT, June 17, 1997

European Union Leaders Work
on Pact To Launch New Era

Associated Press Writer

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands ( AP ) -- European Union leaders failed to reach consensus on an ambitious overhaul of its basic charter early Wednesday, but salvaged enough changes to pave the way for the EU's eastward expansion.

Their two-day summit was aimed at ensuring that the union operates efficiently after it begins increasing its membership by as many as a dozen countries, perhaps as early as 2003. The leaders worked into the night to sort out differences over rules governing their 15-nation partnership.

We can start now at least with the process of enlargement ( negotiations ) in six months, said Bob Hiensch, spokesman for Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van Mierlo.

However, the failure to fully resolve institutional reform issues that were to be part of a grander overhaul of the EU's fundamental treaty will force another round of revisions.

The partial deal was announced after leaders gave up on efforts to let the EU take on a defense role, as favored by France and Germany. Opposition by several countries, led by Britain, forced the leaders to drop the initiative.

Europe has not proved it can run a common foreign policy, let alone a common defense policy, said British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

British officials said Blair also told his colleagues that giving the EU a defense role would unnecessarily provoke Russia and complicate the union's plans to add a dozen or so Eastern European countries.

Other issues that split the leaders were plans to drop the unanimity requirement on foreign policy votes, and a proposal that would prevent groups of smaller countries from diluting the votes of larger members.

They did agree on proposals to end all border controls, while allowing Britain, Ireland and Denmark to opt out.

Problems involving the launch of a single European currency in 1999, meanwhile, refused to go away.

Just when everybody thought they had a deal, French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Paris would insist on a flexible interpretation of financial rules.

Countries wanting to adopt the new currency, known as the euro, have to meet targets of low inflation, small budget deficits and falling debt by the end of this year to qualify.

Strauss-Kahn, however, said countries that are close to meeting the criteria but not quite there should be allowed to qualify. In addition, France's European affairs ministers, Pierre Moscovici, cast doubt on whether France would be able to participate at all.

But French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin said his country has a fundamental commitment to monetary union on Jan. 1, 1999. I'm deeply devoted to the launch of the single currency ... on the given date, he said.

Germany, Britain and others strongly oppose any softening of the criteria, which they feel will lead to a lack of fiscal discipline and weaken the euro.

On defense, some countries favored extending the role of the Western European Union, a military organization founded in 1954 that has been largely moribund. The French in particular are interested in transforming it into a real military arm of the EU.

Van Mierlo, foreign minister of the Netherlands, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, dismissed any military role for the union. NATO will remain the ... basis for defense matters, he said.

The Amsterdam negotiations are an effort to revise the Maastricht Treaty, which itself was an update to the Treaty of Rome, the EU's fundamental charter.

The goal is to simplify decision-making to prepare the EU for a near-doubling of its ranks. Twelve countries -- Turkey, Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovenia -- are knocking on the EU's door.

Enlargement negotiations are to begin in 1998, but only if a reform package is adopted by the EU leaders and ratified by the legislatures of the current EU members or voted on by residents. This could take as long as two years.

If you can't say anything good about someone, sit right here by me.
Alice Roosevelt Longworth

War is like love; it always finds a way.
Bertolt Brecht ( 1898-1956 )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:58
MoreGold @Steve (Perth)>(@Steve (Perth)):
Good story from Thailand. Another currency in trouble and being controlled by the gov't. This is exactly why CB's need Gold in their vaults... I agree with WW that the CB's are just sabre rattling, and they will end up selling very little Gold. How much time could they buy by selling 360 Billion of Gold? This is peanuts in todays global markets.
I've been to Sydney a while back... Great place.
It must be winter there now?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:47
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
PANDA: Your bond charts are excellent! I would like to say thank you
very much to all contributors making this a riveting site. The evidence
is quite overwhelming, when you look at it! Keep up the good work.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:43
6pak TED Spread @ require more information>(TED Spread @ require more information):
George S. Cole June 18 @ 9:35 George, this is information I have
been looking for, any addition information site's, regarding TED
Spread, would be appreciated. Thanks again.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:33
In a dream I saw a mountain top of Barron's Market Labratory
Stats crumbling to the desert valley below; the numbers
scurring about, swirling falling into even deeper holes and
crevicies: Surely this ia sign of the end of the Great Bull
In another vision I saw the Golden Butterfly ( mentioned in
previous posts ) gathering the last drops of the nector of
sustinence ( the great gold base line ) in order to take wing
to the blue heavens above.
As we know the butterfly's flight path is not smooth but
flits about but it eventually soars above the tree tops
far out of sight.
Opportunity knocks how many times?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:29
LSteve @Frontline>(@Frontline):
Good morning everyone. Did anyone see the Frontline story on PBS last night. I know someone mentioned it a few days ago. Anyway the story was about Switzerland's stance during WW2. It really blew my mind. They made the knomes look like a bunch of nazis. They kept showing over and over stacked bars of gold and gold being smelted. It was surreal. I kind of got the feeling that they were trying to communicate that gold is tainted with the blood of dead jews. It also painted a very ugly picture of the Swiss. That they profited immensely from the war, that they turned jews back at the border, and that they turned stolen nazi gold into hard currency that allowed the germans to prolong the war. But mostly I got the impression that they were trying to shape some sort of thought in people's mind. No doubt the holocost was horrific and I pray that this never happens to any group of people again. The continued and repeated reference to gold in the program leaves me scratching my head. Did anyone see this program? What are your thoughts?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:19
NAILZ: Don't rub it in ....buddy!....Time to make ze bread...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:04
MORNING GANG......Am also going to be away for a few days....Leaving Friday...Headed down to the Atlantic side of Florida for a few and then over to the Gulf of Mexico for a few. Will have internet access some of the time, so won't have complete withdrawal as poor TED.....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:03
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
More evidence that the Banking Crisis is starting to heat up
They have kept the Thai Crisis well hidden.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 10:00
HI JIN! Look at that...we double posted! Thanks for the Bangkok Post site!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:52
JIN: Thank you very much for your QUICK reply to my e-mail!...I hope you have a good trip and a GOOD TIME when you get to Hong Kong!...

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:52
JIN ONE NITE IN BANGKOK..............>(ONE NITE IN BANGKOK..............):
thanks for the mail and check your mail box.
this is the popular paper in thailand,for all who interested in TSE!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:49
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
North Korea starting to heat up...serious threat to USA & S.Korea of war

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:44
RAMTHA: HAHAHAHAHA....neighbor Eddie was into Ramtha last year....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35
Ramtha o wise one>(o wise one):
Talking about buying gold coins:

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35
Fundy Bay>(Bay):
Front: If you go back to the TSE Momentum site you can follow some hot spots back to serveral other similiar TSE sites and a page or 2 of assumptions. Odd to see interest in the TSE on this list of marginalized

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:35
George S. Cole TED Spread>(TED Spread):
See the following URl for a dissenting opinion on the likely course of monetary policy. TED spread way up -- will Greenie hike rates 50 basis points in July?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:21
TED @front>(@front):
Front: Sorry....I was always a sloooow learner...I hope you are takin it easy today!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:17
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: I figured you were an early riser! and was only jerkin yer chain...Still don't see Dow 250 by the time I get back.....275 I see...but 250...NO WAY!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:14
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Hey ted my friend, If you're gonna live in the great white north, you've got to start spelling favor like favour. You forgot the U ! Talk Canadian eh! ( :- ) ) )


Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:12
Hi Jin: You have a missive!...What in the world is happening to the S.E.T as it was down 14.78 ( 3% ) @ 482.94...That's almost a 6% loss in the last two trading days!...The market is at an eight and a half year LOW and now the rumor is the finance minister is going to resign....Do you know MORE?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:09
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

To the poster of:

TSE Stock Momentum Model

They seem to inply that what was will continue short term. However, the AULT food 1st place was up from takeover buyouts increases. That can't be sustained near term. Wonder why BEMA GOLDS great but Pegasus is NOT?

MOONEY:Has Louie Seize spoken yet?
StradMaster:Any further words from your broker regarding cooperation?
Aurophile:What about the DTTI?
BYRON:Where are you? Did they lose your library card?
OLDMAN:Where are you when we need you? Come out of retirement please...


Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 09:07
Vieserre Home>(Home):
TED: I am one of those early riser people. Hope you enjoy yourself. Will miss your posts and their humor. The Dow will probably be at 250 by the time you get back. : ) )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:42
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: And by the way....What are you doing up so early...Don't know if I can handle 3 weeks away from the internet-Kitco.....and am startin to get the shakes already....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:38
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: Please don't swear...I've never heard such words!...Thought it was fer me and not Butler....I agree with what you said and feel gold and gold equities are in a no-lose situation these days as they're so out of flavor...or should I say favor...S+P futures down 3.25....Back to Gold: Little downside risk with mucho upside POTENTIAL....Stock market: Good chance of correction or even grinding bear market but no end in sight fer Western civilization or the stock market @ 250...S+P futures down 3.90!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:29
TED @panda>(@panda):
Mornin Panda:Long Bond down three ticks...S+P futures down 3.05 ( and fallin ) ..Comex scoreboard: Gold up .60; Silver up .8 of a cent; platinum down 4.1; and Palladium down 2.90...Will be commin down yer way on Sunday fer a week stay on Swan's Island,Maine....

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:22
panda @It just keeps gettting better and better!>(@It just keeps gettting better and better!):

Parliment approves changes to central bank charter:

And then they want to lend it out!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:18
panda @>(@):
Don't look now, but someone is selling the Globex NDX out. Good Morning TED!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:15
panda @>(@):
The Glacier park post should have read, Thirty five foot deep snow drifts, that's what happens when we work in haste! :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:10
Viesserre Who else?>(Who else?):
TED: Sure as hell was.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:09
bw Price of gold>(Price of gold):
In the early to mid 1960's with gold at 35 an ounce there was much talk by our elite and in the free press about decoupling the dollar from gold. Arthur Burns then the chairman of the fed, and everybodys grandfather, said if the gov stopped supporting gold he believed its price would fall to about 6-8 dollars an ounce. In fifteen years of course, it was about one hundred times that price. And yes, they did do the decouple.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:08
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
El Nino is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!...Glenn ( 20:15,6/17 ) You are right so far ( S+P futures down 1.90 ) ...Vieserre: was that for me

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:07
panda @>(@):
Shek -- Now up $0.80 I use EBN, try this URL;

For something lighter, they still haven't cleared the thirty five snow drifts from the Going to the Sun Road in Glacier Park, Montana! Beautiful place! Someday we'll have to go back there! Go to go to slave duties now, be in and out. Good luck to all 'traders' today! To paraphrase, We are all traders now!, big and small.... :- ) )


Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:04
Mike Sheller Critical Week>(Critical Week):
Remember Gang, August gold gets thru 346.50 it's RALLY time. And it looks like we're gonna do it. Bonds may be running out of steam. If the downtrend line at 113 is the cap, then this week may be a subtle, but critical technical juncture. The leaden Dow Utility Average is still the crystal ball that's telling us this move in bonds may soon abort. Last chance. Last dance.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:00
panda @>(@):
Talk about revisions! Read the 'looking forward' text at the bottom. 1987 to 1996?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 08:00
Shek @>(@):
What is your source? Gold popped up $1.10

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:59
WW @New England/The Proof is in the Pudding>(@New England/The Proof is in the Pudding):
Re: Gold Conference and CB gold. The Propaganda intent of the CB gold sale talk is patently obvious when you realize that the total proceeds from the sale of ALL CB gold would raise perhaps 375 billion. This does not even account for the fact that they probably dont even have the billion ounces they profess due to outstanding gold loans. But for arguments sake we will use the 375 billion no. for the amount that would be raised from the sale. My friends this would equal less one years payment of interest on the US debt. Further US share of the proceeds would be 95 billion. Obviously these numbers are so insignificant it stands to reason that all of the talk of CB sales can only have as a rational basis an attempt to control psychology of the gold market rather than the purported savings such sales would generate. Any sophisticated analysis can see how ridiculous and inconsequential the gold sales would be in revenues in relation to the overall financial structure. However, such talk does effect mass psychology and producer psychology. I would argue that given their desire to control prices there is not a chance in hell the CBs will sell a single ounce/ they probably want to secretly accumulate. The Bull is getting close.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:58
Vieserre home>(home):
PANDA: If I were short, and if the constant barrage of negative news is not affecting my stock or bullion, I would be getting powerful concerned. Somebody besides us is buying. And it is being done quietly. Some stocks I observe are like oil on water, they keep floating up.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:56
panda @>(@):
Trouble in Japans PGMs market

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:51
panda @>(@):
Gold just popped up a $1.10, Hmmmmm.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:50
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- :- ) ) :- ) )

Vieserre -- Yes. Didn't Bill Buckler ( sp? ) say at his site that the lower gold is Forced to go, the bigger the 'problem' must be? The fear expressed by the 'establishment' is in direct proportion to their assault on the price of the precious metals. Clearly, rhetoric is at an extreme. Am I to conclude from this that the 'enemy' ( ? ) is low on ammunition? Just a thought.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:37
Tortfeasor Joke of the day continued>(Joke of the day continued):
As Paul Harvey would say, here is the rest of the story.

The following day, despite the sadness that weighed heavily on his heart due to the unfortunate death of the armless man the bishop continued his interviews for the bell ringer of Notre Dame. The first man to approach him said, Your excellency, I am the brother of the poor, armless wretch that fell to his death from this very belfry yesterday. I pray that you
honor his life by allowing me to replace him in this duty.

The bishop agreed to give the man an audition, and as the armless man's brother stooped to pick up a mallet to strike the first bell, he groaned, clutched at his chest and died on the spot. Two monks, hearing the bishop's cries of grief at this second tragedy, rushed up the stairs to
his side. What has happened? the first breathlessly asked, Who is this man?

I don't know his name, sighed the distraught bishop,but he's a dead ringer for his brother.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:32
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
I'll be out of the office all day. Usually something big happens in the markets when I decide not to monitor for awhile. Therefore, you all ought to get ready for an unexpected runup in gold and silver. Now for a second joke.

After Quasimodo's death, the bishop of the cathedral of Notre Dame sent word through the streets of Paris that the services of a new bell ringer would be required. The bishop decided that he would conduct the interviews personally and went up into the belfry to begin the screening process.

After observing several applicants demonstrate their skills, he decided to call it a day when a lone, armless man approached him and announced that he was there to apply for the bell ringers job.

The bishop was incredulous. You have no arms! No matter, said the man, observe! He then began striking the bells with his face, producing a beautiful melody on the carillon. The bishop listened in astonishment, convinced that he had finally found a suitable replacement for Quasimodo.

Suddenly, rushing forward to strike a bell,the armless man tripped, and plunged headlong out of the belfry window to his death in the street below. The stunned bishop rushed to his side.

When he reached the street, a crowd had gathered around the fallen figure, drawn by the beautiful music they had heard only moments before. As they silently parted to let the bishop through, one of them asked, Bishop, who was this man?

I don't know his name, the bishop sadly replied, but his face sure rings a bell.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:28
George S. Cole rich man's depression?>(rich man's depression?):
WW: Really enjoy your posts. Your hypothesis about a stock market collapse leading to a rich man's depression very thought provoking.

Let's face it -- in today’s economy the stock market tends to move inversely to the well being of the average American. Workers worse off on average than 15 years ago; stockholders much better off. Gap wider than at any tine since the 1920s. But workers suffered along with the rich in the 1930s. They may well suffer a lot after the current bubble crashes until they can organize more effectively.

August gold up 30 cents despite all the bearish talk. The gold complex still looks lower short-term, but I grow more confident every day that we are on the verge of a buying opportunity at least as good as 1976. The frantic attempts of the financial establishment to push bullion down smells to high heaven.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:21
Tortfeasor Re: Joke>(Re: Joke):
Ron, I like the joke. It'll get circulation from here.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:19
Vieserre Something To Think About>(Something To Think About):
TED, Good Morning, Something to think about over coffee.

If CB banks are controlling the price of gold as many here believe;
If the price of Gold is capped by bank selling as is contended;
If increasing producer supply will offset jewelery demand as the Mining Journal predicts;
If Gold is no longer a valid hedge as Mr. Arnold always reminds;
If the golden age of gold jewelery has expired according to CRU International;
If infinite supply will forever minimize price as often reported;
If demonitized gold will drop like falling silver according to Mr. Smith;
If Platinum, Paladium and Silver are superior to Gold as some here contest;
If there is no inflation according to governmental statistics;
If Gold should be sold according to the FED;
If the Dollar will always be king according to those who hold it;
If the US economy has entered Nirvana as the DOW suggests;
If the DOW will never come down as many now expect;
If gold equities will collapse as Mr. Prechter warns;
If bullion will outperform equities as many here argue;
If equities are purchased with a longer time horizon according to common belief;
If industry executives cannot find a reason to invest in Gold, as stated by Gold Conference reporters; and
If indeed there is no reason to buy Gold according to daily news releases;
Why are Gold and the XAU not making new lows;
Why is the XAU higher when compared to bullion when Gold was previously at this level;
Why is the XAU continuing to perform better than bullion in spite of the Bre-x sell-off; and
Why do almost all gold stocks listed on the NYSE and ASE have a B ( with a few better ) Investor's Business Daily accumulation/ distribution rating;
Who are the psuedo-foolish buyers supporting the market and why would they possibly want to buy Gold and Gold equities.

No Response intended, just something to think about

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:12
panda @>(@):
Just a thought, but if the CBs want to dump gold, I'll have to figure out a way to be paid in gold! :- ) ) Now those are 'weighty' coins I wouldn't mind carrying around! :- ) ) :- ) )

Another thought, the summer season is cruel to tech stocks! Seagate, Oracle, and Dell have :- ( news to report. OOOOoooopppps! Damn bananna peels!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 07:08
Mike Sheller Overcast in NY, Undercast in Gold Market>(Overcast in NY, Undercast in Gold Market):
MOONEY: Thanks for your response. The idea is really not to tell you stuff we don't already know. That becomes a parlor game. The thought is to delve into the literal abstract building blocks of reality. If we understand the pieces of the puzzle, perhaps we can make more sense of the big picture. In this regard, we ALL have the same planets, Moon, Sun, signs, degrees, etc, working around and within us. We are just each different COMBINATIONS of those essential particulars of the Human Condition. If we think of the Human Condition as an aberration of the perfection we can imagine, but cannot quite see our way to obtain, then we are getting somewhere, and have somewhere to go. If we accept reality as it is, as we have been fed by the deluded sleepwalkers around us, then we have nowhere to go. And we go nowhere.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 06:49
panda @gold?>(@gold?):
My local bank shoul offer a deal like this. Imagine, buying gold at a bank! That's what some Japanese are doing.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 05:05
John Disney>(
For The Polarbear
Please see what I wrote to Roebear. Im getting you bears mixed up.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 04:44
John Disney>(
For Buddy and other sports fans
I have a video of the Jersey Joe - Rocky Marciano
fight - a gift from by broker ( see how nice they treat
you down here - I havent watched it yet ) - there are 5
others with a set of three Iron Mike fights - Spinks
included _ I will study these to seek examples of Mike's
knee lock problem that I mentioned before.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 04:32
John Disney>(
for the Roebear and others
If you recall, I said that I may have started a rumour about the
Durban Deep deal. I did NOT repeat not start that rumour. There may
be trouble. This what I sound like when I'm being circumspect.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 04:02
Crystal Ball and PANDA, thanks for all the help with my STILLWATER float vs. shares outstanding question. I was thinking along the right track, but wanted to be certain. ( I like to be certain about important things like I'm certain we can make the runway from here crew ) .

VRONSKY, I was touched by the Kitco military salute you gave me--much appreciated. Although I'm periodically troubled knowing my paycheck depends on taxes, I'm happy to report that Uncle Sam is getting his money's worth out of the men and women I serve with.

JOHN DISNEY, just when I was sitting here thinking how I could repay you for so generously keeping me and my fellow Kitcovites up to speed on S.A. shares, I ran across your Japanese SHIBUI question. I can certainly help you there my friend. If I had a Krugerrand for every Japanese dictionary I own, I'd be retired by now!! And certainly better than any of my dictionaries, I recently married a cute little Japanese goldbug! And as your post eluded to, she and the rest of Japan prefer Platinum to Gold-I'll fire that SHIBUI question at her the minute she walks in. I was amazed while shopping with her here in Japan for her engagement ring and our wedding rings, to see so much Platinum. I'd guess most stores carried 8 to 10 times as much Platinum as Gold. Many stores we visited carried no gold and only platinum!!.

As you stated:

IF the CHINESE start thinking

the same way {about Platinum as the Japanese}

then watch out because NO ONE will be

able to fill that kind of a future jewelry demand.

I've often considered the same thing, and agree that this would be a stunning development in the metals markets. I think it has a long ways to go though. I was in Thailand and Hong Kong a few years ago, and I don't recall seeing much platinum, but was shocked to see gold jewelry stores everywhere. People that think this demand will fad away haven't been there!! Asians have loved gold for thousands of years, and this isn't going to change just because they can now afford a TV instead. If anything, I'd bet ( or am betting! ) that as Asian income rises, so will gold purchases. They don't just consider gold as something one wears, THEY CONSIDER IT MONEY………wow, what a concept!

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 03:45
John Disney>(
for Mike
Re your comment to the effect that a solution to the
debt bubble will be found and that people would
accept whatever hardships that would be required to fix
Wow - While I have a mind set problem accepting a
collapse of the world financial system, I have a MUCH
BIGGER problem accepting what you just said.
Look MIKE the reason that we have the dept BALLOON
is that governments world wide were unable to tax
all their populations sufficiently to cover their
expenditures - so they borrowed the money as required.
The fools were the guys that LENT them the money
or bought thier debt. IF the people couldnt be taxed
enough to cover in the first place, how come you think
they can be docilely taxed to cover NOW to save the
skins of the idiots that bought the debt ? Think
again old buddy.
I got a BIG FAT PICTURE of Americans accepting a
doubling of their tax rate or a 20% vat or a 25% petrol
tax to proctect Japanese buyers of US bonds from a US
default while they lose their jobs to Japanese car
I would appreciate any comments on the above. The
whole idea of government bonds seems like such an
obviously transparant Ponzi scheme to me that I am
afraid I must be missing something.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 03:18
Simple Simon On the plane trip back from Prague>(On the plane trip back from Prague):

A distinct smell of urine was detected on the plane
loaded with gold bears on the return trip from Prague.
Furthermore, the blue upholstered seats had a tint of
green as they arose to embark from the plane.

Something big is about to occur, but only after they push
gold down about $10.

Don't give up the ship.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 03:11
Mr. Disney: To build on your post, while I was researching the white PGM
metals a few months ago. I came across two personal facts that lead me
to jump into palladium ( could of been platinum in hindsight ) . 1 ) I played
golf with JIT consultant to Honda Motors. He was positive Honda never
kept more then 1 or 2 days of inventory. 2 ) I know a Korean woman
who is very upto date with the latest fashion trends. She told me that
Platinum is the perferred jewellry among the trendy far easterns. It
supposely matches the skin tones better then gold. Sounded crazy to
me, but what do I know about fashion?

Yes, this is how I invest. Some guy I met once on a golf course and
the advice of a fashion princess. Sounds crazy, but I'm the one golfing

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 02:45
Pepino di Cortino Bel'Paesa Cortina, nel Dolomiti>(Bel'Paesa Cortina, nel Dolomiti):

Ciao Bob: Abouta the ( 22:38 ) Il denaro non e sempre li,
le signorene, esse sempre li. Domani e una altro giorno.

I'ma tri to teecha you guyz, dat watta the govervamento
she taka, she neva giva back; she use it againsta you,
thatsa whata Ima say.

Counties in NA sholda hanga togedda as separti contries
and be gooda Paisani with eacha other. Itsa betta.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 02:31
John Disney>(
For Coder -
I dont think anyone KNOWS whats going on in
platinum. I offer my own theory which is based on
observation of output prices and statements which
suggests what the underlying mechanism may be.
1. The shortage in palladium was worse than people
had assumed it was. The russians had been selling
twice their production and balancing from their
2. Automakers have now been squeezed. They must have
formulated emmision catalyst to maximize what was
cheap palladium at that time. Presumably they also
held minimum stockpiles ( probably led by a just in
time bright lad from Harvard ) counting on the russian
3. The Harvard kid is probably on the streets now.
The Automakers must be reformulating catalysts more
in line with normal PGM production ratios with more
platinum and ( must be ) some rhodium.
4. One of the carmakers will probably try to shake
platinum hoarders soon with a report that their
research departments have developed a new catalyst
based on something really cheap like rusty nails or
maybe Bernatz's bacteria ridden dirt. Or maybe they
will report that Ford's non-existent exploration
department has discovered a vast PGM deposit in some
extraordinary place - Kaffiristan maybe.
5. Possible surprise package. Japanese prefer platinum
jewelry to gold. I lived their for 8 years and I
dont know why really. Perhaps the explanation rests in
a word they use sometimes - shibui ( ) - in their
esthetic assessment of things. Maybe plat is more
shibui than gold. Anyway IF the CHINESE start thinking
the same way then watch out because NO ONE will be
able to fill that kind of a future jewelry demand.

I would appreciate any comments particularly on
point no 5 above - What is a clear definition of
shibui - is that the right word or am I confused ?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 02:16
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
I hope the Dow goes up 300 points tonight. Yeeeeeeeaaaaaahhhh, means my gold shares at 9c should go to about 90c after the crash ( thats going to happen ) .

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 01:48
John Disney>(
Someone asked me a day or so ago about the upcoming dries dividend which was final and would be 75 cents. I said not likely because I did not see how they could make enough to cover that by end June. Well they HAVE declared a 75 cent final
div end june following the same amount end december. Their earnings will be out in about a month.
There is a rumour that Buffels shareholders are so upset about how little they get in the DD merger that the whole deal
may fall through. This is a rumour that I may have started myself so I would wait for confimation before doing anything.

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 01:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Afternoon boys and girls.... Yes its a 3:45pm here in sunny Brisbane town in Australia. I getting ready for the all night gold rally in yanky land. So buddooos, do you think gold may go up tonight ( tomorrow ) ?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 01:22
Ron Joke of the Eve>(Joke of the Eve):
I could never compete with Tort, but I ran across this and thought everyone might like it:

Two nuns are ordered to paint a room in the
convent, and the last instructions of the
Mother Superior is that they must not get even
a drop of paint on their habits. After confer-
ring about this for a while the two nuns decided
to lock the room, strip off their habits, and
paint in the nude. In the middle of the project,
there comes a knock at the door. 'Who is it?'
calls one of the nuns, 'Blind Man,' replies a
voice from the other side of the door. The two
nuns look at each other and shrug, and deciding
that no harm can come from letting a blind man
into the room, they open the door............

Nice breasts, says the man, Where do you want
these window blinds?

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 00:48
WW @ 21:10. As I have stated previously, your posts improve about 1 Zillion per cent when you stick to the main topic around here. You have had many good ones lately and I am only singling-out ( ? ) your 21:10 mas it was right on and made me laugh. Bravo!

Mike S. - I have been pondering about how to respond to your 'Tale of the Moon' and I come up short everytime. I could point out that many of the characteristics that you assign to me, I have already exposed to the Kitco world, but at the same time your compilation shows that you are no amateur, and I am indeed honoured that you even bothered. I would like to analysis bit by bit and could well do so but at the risk of boring the others. Without further ado, I salute you!
( Did anybody see that my hang-up with Moon signs etc. even extended to my description of PB's bravery in describing about 1,000 Scot's MOONING the Brits? ) I don't think anyone , including PB, even had the foggiest! )

Date: Wed Jun 18 1997 00:01
Mike Sheller With the likes of Charles Harvey, Michael Baigent and Nicholas Campion Astrology has come head on to the tuned minds of this generation.Mass psychology and the break-up of Russia was predicated by these great future thinkers in 1984 to the exact aftertime cycles.Yes I believe in cycles but it takes a great deal of study and I also think one must be gifted.
The 5.6 Taurus factor has certainly played a major role with Gold & Silver.The art of interrupting all the cycles and their aspects is a lifetime of mental anguish I can say that for at least the last thirty years.Keep up the insights .Happy Trails.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:48
andy @lucy>(@lucy):
Delinquency update: From the vantage point of upstate NY, the booming economy looks and feels like a mirage. I passed by the local bike shop, and the business is off. People cant even buy a bike, much less a few thousand shares of ssc at 13/16. Poor souls. That giant sucking sound is the sum total of all the earnings of all the boomers going into 50 stocks.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:46
TSE Stock Momentum Model n/a>(n/a):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:45
vronsky nailz (NEWBIE QUESTIONS......):>(nailz (NEWBIE QUESTIONS......):):
TO ALL MARKET NYOPHITES: You must know first history before you can make an intelligent prediction of future prospects. May I offer as a starting point the following:
And every serious market should recall:

“The study of history, while it does not endow with prophecy, may indicate lines of probability.”

- John Steinbeck

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40
While in quite meditation last Sunday I saw a clear vision
of a golden butterfly drinking nectare from a rose.
Clearly this is a buy signal.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40
RJ And you are>(And you are):
Onlooker - Never sold a stock in my life. Is it a custom of yours to speak about which you have no fathom? Must be fun to provoke though.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:40
nailz TO BART............>(TO BART............):
BART..........A tip of the hat to you for keeping this site up and running.....!!!!!The great diversity of thought here is beneficial to all!!!! I wish to express my appreciation.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:38
Fundy Shutting down>(Shutting down):
Interesting comment on the SI GoldDigger site by Zev Hed. Says the value of paper maney is partially based on the ability of the issuer to tax its population. Explains the Italian funny money.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:32
Poorboys Canada>(Canada):
Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= VeryBullish Gold = Colourless to slightly Bearish XAU = Detached and bearish Dollar Poker-faced .With the round-the-clock fall of the dollar I am surprised Gold has not had even a idiot reaction to the upside.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:32
ALL... Have noticed that almost all the newbies to the site ask practically the same questions....i.e...What will happen to gold stocks if the DOW crashes...?..What are the best gold stocks to get in..? What is the best way for me to invest in gold or silver...etc. For the regulars, we have been through these same questions a number of times and have had answers from many people responding in many different ways. Is there a way that we could establish a FAQ with a variety of posts that we all could access and the newbies could go to that gives a summary of posts reflecting all sides of basic issues I welcome the newbies and hope they will stay and in no way is this post meant to discourage their participation. Quite to the contrary, it is meant as a way to let them see the wide diversity of KITCO thinking.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:26
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Good Night all!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:23
ONLOOKER @forward viewing>(@forward viewing):
Eldo & RJ :Boy are you guys ever going to have some fun on Bart's new open chat line. You'll be able to chat all night long and the rest of us can talk gold. Won't that be fun! A salesman of stocks trying to tell Eldo he's stupid for not realising how wonderful and knowledgeable a salesman he really is. He's sure convinced me! That should make that site worth watching for sure.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:16
Coder @PowerBuilder>(@PowerBuilder):
I don't know about the rest of you, but I am still a little disoriented by the dizzying movement of platinum over the past few weeks! It has always been axiomatic that the price of platinum is tied to the price of gold. I don't believe that the price of platinum has been particularly constrained by the price of gold lately. I would welcome a comment or two by someone learned in the ways of platinum.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:11
cueball Gold Discussion for Investors & Market Analysts@>(Gold Discussion for Investors & Market Analysts@):
Platinum discussion for Investors & Market Analysts@noCB

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:10
Byron Faster Than A Speeding Bullet:>(Faster Than A Speeding Bullet:):
Puetz: Overnight quote on Globex are available at You need to scroll down to the bottom and click on Globex Flash Page for the overnight stuff and remember to reboot every so often.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:08
panda @zzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzz):
Good night all, and place your 'bets' on the bond chart. As for the NDX on Globex, well it is a thin market, and what reports are out tomorrow and Thursday? Who told the FOBs what the reports would say anyhow?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:02
panda @Bond.chart>(@Bond.chart):
Is this close enough? So far this week gives us a Doji. Maybe we start the bounce up from here? Or, do we get one spike down, then up?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 23:00
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

All this chatting about debts and bankrupcies got me thinking about our Canadian debt.

I just did some figuring. If the govt. of Canada wanted to back up our national debt through solid Gold, they'd have to purchase 1.85 BILLION ounces of Gold @ 350 per... Is there 1.85 Billion ozs of gold out there? As I said to D.A. ... Canada doesn't have a debt problem, it's the guy who lent us the money to who has the problem ... not us!


Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:59
Night-night all. By the way, you too Ted if you're out there!!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:57
Puetz @ OTC>(@ OTC):
Byron: Do you get your night-OTC quotes from the Internet? If so, from which address? I appreciate your quote postings.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:55
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- What? More of the same Blah Blah Blah! Is that all there is from you today? More name calling? My oh my, I'd say bend over and pull that hair out of you a_s! It seems to be stabbing your sensibilities! This place may need some new voices, but if this is all we can get ---

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:54
Good story, D.A. All it will take is one little spark to start the paper-to-money shift. I still think a stock market crash will be the spark.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:53
buddy fights of the century>(fights of the century):
mike sheller: remember the 'heart' of jersey joe walcot?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:51
RJ Some more >(Some more ):
Eldo, Baby - Perhaps you will review some of your priors. Pay particular attention to those well thought, astute responses to my earlier arguments. Keep looking…. Perhaps you would like to go back to playing horseshoes. You remind me of nothing so much as two out of the three famous monkeys, You have no problem with the speaking, its the hearing and seeing that leaves you challenged. Read my future posts if you please, but spare no time in your response, I have yet to hear anything original from you in any case. Mostly a rehash of the last year on this group.

This place needed a new voice, a voice different from yours, but your fear is overwrought. Inbreeding has leeched out the survivability of you ideas eons ago. The harp is a beautiful instrument, with music as if from heaven, your harping enormously less so, sounding as much as shrill shrieking from the yammering magpies. Repeat your mantras if they bring you peace and calm your fear, the rest of the world will progress. Get out of the way. A speed bump does little but slow people down and, once passed, soon forgotten.

When I do post my views about the decline of western civilization, it will be as well thought out as I hope expressed. To those that will challenge, I am but a warrior for the working day. To you, Eldorado, after reviewing many of your previous posts to me, I must say, that you suck the fun right out of it. Your hostility is tiring. For you, I have no more time. You make me weary.

Thus, with slight regard, I apprise you, lad.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:50
Byron @ Overnight Delivery:>(@ Overnight Delivery:):
Nasdaq 100 Sep Futures now down -1050 vs -800 30 - 40 minutes ago. Watch out for those Indexes that go bump in the night.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:49
Puetz @ confusion>(@ confusion):
Sorry Mike Sheller, it was Mike M. that asked the question. Mike M.: It's important not to get distracted and confused between those things that are economic and those that are financial. The good numbers coming out of Washington are all economic numbers -- measures of production, distribution, and consumption. The disasterous numbers have been the financial ones. Wall Street economists very seldom talk about them. The low savings rate, perennial deficits, and rising defaults all indicate that our financial foundation is crumbling to bits. In the long-run, we cannot have a solid economy without solid finances.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:45
6pak Rhodes Scholar @ GOLD, go figure>(Rhodes Scholar @ GOLD, go figure):
The Rhodes Scholarship Program, of course, is where the most
intelligent people in all the schools of the world are identified
as early as grade VI: some are sent to private schools; the careers
of the others are tracked. If they maintain their standings, they
are given Rhodes Scholarships and brought to Oxford where they
form the backbone of the famous * think - tanks *

The smartest of these intellectuals get promoted into the permanent
government, hidden mandarins who are not elected but who are there
year in, year out, providing a continuing line of knowledge and power
for the controllers.

The second group are more visible, politicians with less power than
those on the inside. The intellectual combination of the two groups
is deadly for democracy.

Bob Rae, as X Prime Minister of Ontario, was referenced on the Kitco
site the other night, as being a Rhodes Scholar. Interesting, eh guys.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:41

Reading the various posts about how the 'end' will come for financial instruments, I posit the following. The end will come because a very few people of enormous wealth will transfer a large portion of thier wealth from financial to physical assets. Put simply, they will sell bonds and buy stuff. Stuff will likely take the form of easily storable commodities like precious and base metals. When this occurs, the rest of the idiots who slave over economic statistics will go Ooooh, Ahhhh, the XXX ( fill in your favorite economic indicator which measures price changes ) is soaring! This must mean inflation is here! We must sell our bonds!!. End of financial assets.

Begining of Anecdote
Today, a fellow money manager who manages funds for wealthy individuals came by for a visit. This money manager works in the usual realm of stocks and bonds. For diversity sake, he gets his clients to throw a few chips into our pot. Today he told us of a longtime friend of his who is looking to diversify out of European paper where virtually all of his assets reside. I asked him, how much money he was talking about. He said a little under 2 billion. I offered that he should be all the above ground stocks of silver in the world. He laughed. I was serious. Someday, a handful of people with this kind of money will do the right thing. We will have 10 commodities that look like palladium. We will have bond markets that look like Albania. I truly hope we do not have more countries that look like Albania, but it is a real possibility.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:39
MoreGold @Doom and Gloom - What are the motives?>(@Doom and Gloom - What are the motives?):
Listening to the comments emerging from the recent Gold conference, you would think that all the traders and analysts were there to talk down the price of Gold.
If these interests are short Gold, it would explain why they are projecting such a level of gloom and doom.
Yes there is a lot of rumour about more CB sales, but nothing concrete has been anounced.
The average ounce is now mined @ 2 1/2 miles underground in South Africa.
The cost of mining an ounce of Gold is @ $340 in a large number of
mines today. The only profit they are earning is from hedging and forward sales. Were the price to drop to 320. for any length of time, these mines would shut and the CB's would have to take up this slack, on top of
the increased demand generated by the lower price. Somehow I don't think that price could hold very long...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:38
Bob @ Pepino, what kinda Italiano are you ?>(@ Pepino, what kinda Italiano are you ?):
Any true Italiano would be out shragging his girlfriend while his wife is at home watching his 6 kids .... at this time of night ;- )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:37
Mike Sheller Unravelling>(Unravelling):
STEVE PUETZ: I think you were intending to respond to the other Mike ( your 21:47 ) . ALL: Occasionally the intensity of finely focussed minds and rapier wit at Kitco, like a boxing match, rends tissue and brings fresh flows of blood. But it is all in the heat of the intellectual sport, is it not? Surely the ultimate joy of finding such kindred speculative souls ( even if they're all wrong ) far outweighs the bruises and buffets of our human indelicacies and commensurately deep egos. Gentlemen, as the final bell rings, embrace one another and vist each other's corner for a moment. I for one, despite whatever insults or idiocies are hurled my way, appreciate the free and open challenge ( and FUN ) of minds I respect and enjoy. And where else but Kitco can I spout MY idiocies, and not be literally run out of town or, in seamier days, burned at the stake?Thanks again Bart, for making it possible.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:36
RJ Some more crap>(Some more crap):
Perhaps you will review some of your priors. Pay particular attention to those well thought, astute responses to my earlier arguments. Keep looking.... Perhaps you would like to go back to playing horseshoes. You remind me of nothing so much as two out of the three famous monkeys, You have no problem with the speaking, its the hearing and seeing that leaves you challenged. Read my future posts if you please, but spare no time in your response, I have yet to hear anything original from you in any case. Mostly a rehash of the last year on this group.

This place needed a new voice, but your fear is overwrought. If your ideas were people, inbreeding would have leeched out survivability eons ago. The harp is a beautiful instrument, with music as if from heaven, your h

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:35
Bob @...GS Cole>(@...GS Cole):
I hope you are right.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:28
Mac Metals-101>(Metals-101):
Need some help. Anyone. What exactly is the Gold and Silver forward lease rates and what are we looking for as bull or bear indicators with these - up or down? I tried this post in the stocks section but no help. How about it Mr. Cole?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:27
Mike M. @>(@):
STEVE PUETZ: Our benevolent government has a stake in underreporting GDP growth ( inflation fears ) . This is a recurring theme in articles in Barrons. Evidence that GDP growth is in fact underreported: Unexpectedly high tax receipts by the states and federal government, the income and production side of the GDP do not balance. Higher GDP growth could aid in coping with the debt.

Recently I read Pop Internationalism by Paul Krugman, where he debunks the widely held popular belief that competitiveness in international markets is crucial for the welfare of national economies. He claims that in fact it is domestic technological progress and productivity which are important. In this area we have seen spectacular advances ( computer technology especially in the service sector, manufacturing process automation ) . The economy may in fact be stronger than expected to cope with adversities in the financial system.

Lastly: the financial authorities are aware of systemic danger. The possibility of systemic failure and how to cope with it are always debated. Thus a crisis would not strike the unprepared.

I do not want to spread subadult optimism. A large drop in the market is certainly possible at any time and highly likely eventually. But life will go on.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:07
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve Puetz -- Re delinquencies: Why am I not even a bit surprised! That dam is springing more leaks all the time and there isn't a thing they can do about it!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 22:01
Puetz @ delinquencies>(@ delinquencies):
Eldorado: A report came out today showing delinquencies continued to increase during the 1st quarter of 1997. Actually, credit-card delinquincies fell. However, that decline was more than offset by large jump in car-loan defaults. The credit-dike sprung another leak!!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:57
For all you hosers ( just funnin' you ) up north, what Canadian Band sang the phrase: I see the tip of the iceberg ... and I worry about you

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:56
Kitco contributor, RJ, discovered an uncanny correlation between the Yen and the Yen value of Platinum. It appears to demonstrate predictive qualities. See new SILVER charts:

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:55
EWP@ted EWP>(EWP):
Ted: You've exited the market?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:53
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Actually, I'm not here to prove anything right or wrong. I like learning too. But if I can poke a 'hole' in it, I'll give it a shot. I will not take anybodys 'word' on it. I'll make my own decisions. I've never been anybodys' 'yes' man without a damn fine rational behind it! So don't be so paranoid that I'm 'after' you or something. As for what a scenario might be in a crash of 'that' magnitude, I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess except to first, watch out for the stampede to the exits!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:52
Puetz @ NASDAQ down 800 in overnight trading>(@ NASDAQ down 800 in overnight trading):
Panda: Regarding Byron's post that the OTC index is collapsing tonight, move my sell signal up one day. The 10-day Arms Index gave its sell today. I was anticipating a sell signal tomorrow.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:51
EWP@panda EWP>(EWP):
I see the tip of the iceberg ( every day ) and it bothers me.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:48
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Strad Master:

Nicely put ... well spoken ... wish you had an opinion though !

Say a sign in a restaurant window this evening....

We have menus in brail .. Logical who'll be able to read it eh!


Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:48
EWP@panda EWP>(EWP):
panda: in agreement. Feel sorry for the generations that come after me ( my children and future grandchildren ) .

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:47
Puetz @ increase taxes !!!!>(@ increase taxes !!!!):
Mike Sheller: Trying to tax the productive even more to keep the government from going broke will certainly intensifying a powerful trend already started -- capital fleeing the country. The next step may be for Uncle Sam to impose capital and emmigration controls. Biginning to sound more like the Soviet Union before its collapse

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:44
observer on the day of the infamous crime>(on the day of the infamous crime):
today marks the 25th anniversary of the watergate saga...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:44
Puetz @ Ted got out>(@ Ted got out):
Ted: At least you were smart enough to get out of the stock market. Most people will have no idea what's happening when the collapse finally starts.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:42
Puetz @ 1960's hippie>(@ 1960's hippie):
Ted: I too was an anti-government hippie sympathizer in the 1960s. However, Purdue was a ultra-conservative college. Nothing exciting ever happened there. I think we all protested the government sending us to Vietnam without any intention of seriously trying to win that war.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:39
WW @New England>(@New England):
Mike: You have made an apt statement of what they are trying to do slow deflation of the credit bubble Ques is will it work or are things becoming so stretched that something will break. The point of my earlier post was that technology has allowed this situation to continue beyond what was possible in the past. Manipulation of opinion and therefore perception /confidence and money is prevalent. Ques. can it be done indefinitely or will the break be bigger than 1929. Or will there be a break greater than 1929 which will allow us to start over and in fact since there are many more people at the lower end of the ladder/ a collapse wont set them off. In fact this collapse will be a rich man's depression with little effect on the little guy who will gain political clout when the upper 20% sees it clout diminished. Conclusion Collapse yes for those who have accumulated financials. Subsequent political chaos and low prices and shift in political power will give many in the bottom 80% the chance of a lifetime and they will love whats happening. IE Financial Collapse will not mean armageddon for most in fact b/c of power shift it will give most people a chance. Wall ST and the upper 20% will go down drastically in comparison to those they had outstripped for two decades. This will be healthy and welcomed by most and will help stabalize society. When the collapse occurs I can just see the riots and store burnings breaking out all over Scarborough, Grosse Pointe, McLean, Va. and Beverly Hills.
HaHa. So Mike I agree with you that the world will not come to an end and in fact may improve for most if there is a financial debacle. I disagree that a financial debacle will hold dire societal consequences except for those whose fortunes are tied to this realm. A NEW AND PROBABLY BETTER REALM WILL EMERGE FROM THE ASHES OF WALL ST. And in 20 or 30 years after the debacle Wall St itself will regain its credibility. HOPE LLIVES!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:39
panda @>(@):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:38
panda @>(@):
Byron -- It's because you're not buying Seagates hard drives. :- ) )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:36
panda @>(@):
EWP -- Did you ever see a sign posted on property that read like this,


It is has always led me to ask these three questions;

1] What is money?
2] Where does mony come from?
3] Who is the government?

BTW, don't I own a piece of that state property?

:- ) ) :- ) )
If it weren't so sad, it would be funny.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:34
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
Nasdaq 100 Sept Futures having a hard time on the overnight Globex. Had gained 1000 today and is alread down 800. Things don't look good for the techs tomorrow morning. Understand there were several negative reports after the bell.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:31
The govt. doesn't have enough assets to cover the debt and unfunded liabilities. I guess when the sell off most assets to feed the beaucratic monster .... we will be dealing in purely worthless paper.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:30
panda @>(@):
Ron -- I've been told cable is the preferred method of reception. I use the FM version and I live in a good signal area coupled with an outdoor antenna. It's rare to drop ticks for me. I've seen postings at other sites from those who've had less than 'stellar' results with the FM box/card. Those who have cable tend to opt for the cable version. Those who live in nice places, that are far away, with lots of land, nice mountains,and lots of land, have the satellite version. :- ) )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:29
EWP@panda EWP>(EWP):
panda: The govt. selling off govt. assets to avoid cutting or slowing the growth of government. What do you expect from a bunch of gutless empty suits!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:28
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- I wasn't the one to post the 'humor' as you call it. If you feel so inclined to post crap, who am I to say you can't. If you have something to say about the scenarios, then say it! And don't to be so 'taken aback' when a small bit of re-proof' comes your way when you do post 'crap'! I do not recall even one instance when I got on you 'case' since my posting after YOU said you didn't know what gold was good for. Get off your high and mighty and post some of that 'substance' you say you have coming! I do know that you have made some damn good postings here, and I would only recommend more of the same! Bring 'em on!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:18
panda @>(@):
Eldorado - More spin control here too;


Selling strategic oil reserves again. Not that the stuff was quality oil mind you, just selling more assets again. That is, assuming it hasn't already been sold! BTW, wasn't this the oil that was supposed to be used for the military in time of national emergency?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:17
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Whew! Finally able to use the web again. It seems my provider had a router fail during what was a busy day for the net, anyway.

Earl: Glad you liked 'em.

Vronsky: Thanks for the url. Your site and Bart's are by far the very best on the web for those interested in precious metals. Much, much food for thought on both. Thanks!!!

Panda: I called Signal Data. I've heard they are pretty good. Do you prefer a cable or satellite feed?

Re the astrology debate: I believe that if anyone in this world is interested in finding and explaining new or poorly understood forces in the universe, it is the physicist. Now, of course, we can always go back to the end of the Dark Ages and drag out the odd pathological counterexample. But what do *modern* scientists say about astrology? Modern physicists, thoroughly schooled in the scientific method as no person born in 1642 could possibly have been, universally reject the claims of astrology for the same reason: Astrologers have simply failed to provide any evidence that such forces are at work. It's a dead issue, scientifically.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:11
Eldorado - Again you see malice where there is none. I can only assume that there is a vast gulf of difference between your humor and mine. You have obviously been honing your arguments to a keen edge and are anxious to use them before they dull. I recall a time, when you called as vehemently for my conclusions regarding the value of gold as a buy and hold investment, protector of wealth, or store of value. I seem to remember an similar eagerness to hear these arguments. I recall apologizing for not adhering to your timetable.

I have written several thousand words in the last two weeks to this group. I have taken positions that differ greatly from many in this group, supported them well, and defended them from all but the weakest assaults. When some did not like the generous numbers I used, I responded with facts and figure to prove that the picture is actually much worse than I previously describe. Some, who I respect, conceded my reasoning, others offered the same with the caveat that……blah, blah………….. followed by an argument whose self contradiction was so evident, I did not bother to respond, preferring to let ones words stand on their own. From others, who originally challenged my contentions, the silence was deafening.

You are obviously relishing the opportunity to prove me wrong with your continued calls for my next essay, this I assume, being preferable to answering my last. I remember, when I was young, I could not beat my older ( by ten years ) brother in wrestling, basketball, or horseshoes. I kept searching and finally found I could beat him in chess, for there, size and speed did not matter, the playing field was level. I sense some of the same in your continued prodding of me.

I have enjoyed my time as a guest here. I have respected the give and take, and I have learned. I have seen those who, faced with a better argument, concede that these are good points, some of which, they may not have considered. I have tried to answer all challenges and questions put to me, finding it sometimes easier to answer several in one post.

Most importantly, as many here will agree, I have not lost my sense of the fun of it all. To this conceit; I may have enjoyed some of my own posts more that any other, but such is the nature of fun. All in all, I have not forgotten how to play, and I do think there are many who take me more seriously than I take myself. To those, I respond, lig

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:10
WW @New england>(@New england):
I read that article from Mike @ 14:50 re gold conference. If that level of sentiment is not a poster child for what sentiment is like at a low I have never seen it. This article should be saved by anyone who anticipates writing an article on market sentiment. In a way it is comical/ everyone hates gold just before the greatest debt avalanche and potential for default. I get a kick out of how the CBs lose a WHOLE 15 billion a year by holding gold. Even better is the WHOLE 370 billion US share 95 billion if they sold all their gold ie that which hasnt already been lent out but not as yet returned. These numbers are so tiny in comparison to what is going on it is incredible that the analysis is undertaken as it is so ludicrous it could blow their cover and credibility. Try and think about the significance of those numbers in comparison to the Debt and Derivitives etcet and try not to laugh. If there were a Mkt version of Saturday Night Live The CBs and Wall St ( Ted Arnold as Connie Conehead ) would have to be depicted as the Cone heads. We will sell MASS QUANTITIES OF GOLD and consume MASS QUANTITIES of FINANCIAL ASSETS as the former are plentiful and the latter are scarce.!! Beam me up!!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:09
TED @mike(20:57)>(@mike(20:57)):
Mike: I agree with you......

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:05
TED @ebn>(@ebn):
That didn't last long! Gold down a nickle and Silver down a cent...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Panda -- Anymore, very rarely do I have trades that last more than a couple days at a time. Even not being a 'day trader' per say, quite a number of them I'll decently exit when I don't like what I'm seeing on the intra-day charts. I do like the 'gold on black' you mentioned. Check out CLN7! Tell me what you see. I see good support at 19.10-19.20! Right up until it be taken out. In other words, it currently looks like a good buy unless/until proven otherwise, and should that be the case, one shouldn't have to put much at risk at this point. The other side of the coin it that it is banging on resistance at these levels. Well, how low can it go? Perhaps just a bit more time wil be required. Can it also be that they'll let us see 17 on it? Somebody find another barrel of it somewhere?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 21:00
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike: I know about you Nam brother was there for a year and a half....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
And yes I did!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57
panda @>(@):
bw -- Was it you who brought up the Treasurys sale of Morgan silver Dollars back in the sixties? If so, what do you think the Treasury will do with all those gold bars? Do you think that they will sell them in the same fashion? If so, I will gladly be there to purchase as many ingots as I can, for the 'right' price of course! With such massive dumping, I should think $42/oz about right. :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Anyone else care to join in the bargain basement fire sale? :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:57
Mike @>(@):
STEVE PUETZ: I love to read your predictions but I do not believe in an impending collapse of the financial system. Such a collapse would sweep away all existing power structures and lead to totalitarian governments and war.

Why can the debt bubble not be liquidated in a slow and orderly manner, that is, the losses distributed throughout the numerous industrious taxpayers: Disinformation about the true state of inflation, downsizing of expectations, write down of assets,...

The issue here is mostly the willingness of the population to endure hardships without successful organized resistance to the existing power structure. Such resistance is now unthinkable however: the incredible advance in the technology of surveillance, conditioning of the population to desirable beliefs and enforcement of commendable behaviour rules it out.

People have gone through worse before: the losers of major wars have lost EVERYTHING and had to acquiesce to a new start from a clean slate for lack of alternatives. The slow deterioration enforced by a deflation of the credit bubble will also be accepted docilely.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:56
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:55
TED @fireplace>(@fireplace):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:54
Mike Sheller Sniff Sniff>(Sniff Sniff):
TED: YOU never gave me a hard time. Anyhow, what's burning in the fireplace ( ?!!! )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:54
TED @bart>(@bart):
Bart: Stop double posting me! Once is bad enough....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:52
Mike Sheller @theChart>(@theChart):
AUGUST GOLD chart tells the tale. Day before yesterday Very Very short term price emerged from the downtrend of the May 20th and June 6th mini peaks. Yesterday was the mini RETURN MOVE to that resistance line which is now new support. Price Cannot go lower than yesterday's low for now. This sets up a thrust in the next few days toward the 346.50 mark. Get thru that and we RALLY.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:50
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike Sheller ( 20:38 ) No smokin tonight Mike....must be the weather er somethin...or maybe that I'm heading back to the states this weekend for the first time in a while....of that I'll be seein me mother for the first time in over five years....Who knows what IT is....Pretty cozy here now with a fire goin in the fireplace and the rain whippin off the ocean!
Thanks for responding to me, especially since I gave you a hard time when you joined the forum....Was just testin ya!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:50
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike Sheller ( 20:38 ) No smokin tonight Mike....must be the weather er somethin...or maybe that I'm heading back to the states this weekend for the first time in a while....of that I'll be seein me mother for the first time in over five years....Who knows what IT is....Pretty cozy here now with a fire goin in the fireplace and the rain whippin off the ocean!
Thanks fo

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:48
panda @>(@):
2weeks -- LOL, I know the feeling!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:45
2weeks aint_it_great>(aint_it_great):
Well, here we are, precious metals in recession if not depression while the rest of the world is torn over which brand of caviar to wash down with their Dom Perignon. Here I am, drinking my coffee, sitting indoors, basically - really - enjoying myself, watching several percent or so of my net worth go up in smoke while the guy next door is making 32% a year. Is this a great country, or what? Isn't it nice to have the luxurious option of throwing away thousands of clamshells on an expensive investing habit? Sure beats the breadline, doesn't it? And here's the kicker - there's still a possibility that I might end up making money off this little hobby. So at worst ( so far, anyway ) it's less expensive than sailing, and possibly even profitable. And furthermore, if I had bought a nice boat with what I'm down so far, I'd have to pay to maintain it and dock it, etc. Plus get sunburn, maybe skin cancer. Hey, let's face it - gold saved my life here. I can't wait til the market opens tomorrow.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:39
panda @>(@):
Puetz -- Name change, eh! :- ) ) Yes, I saw your post regarding the SPX puts. I've been doing some changes to the old portfolio mix. Boy, I can't wait to change brokers! I got a new one yesterday from Schwabee regarding settlements and margin accounts. Funny, I learned how to count to three like this; One, two, three. They count like this; One, one, one, two, is it three days yet? ( We're on day six and counting for settlement! ) It's long story, but I have been running in to the oddest problems with these folks in the last six months! Everything from bad quotes, to bad fills, to no fills after 24 minutes on an open market order in a stock that traded a little under a million shares on the day in question. Do I think there's a problem here? YUP!

Eldorado -- I watched as the XOI ( AMEX gas + oil index ) or, XVI if you prefer, went up, up, and away, to paraphrase a commercial. Now the question is, short or long? I becoming more and more convinced of one thing, daytrading is looking safer everyday! One day 'bets' are looking a whole lot safer than one WEEK 'bets'. In addition, physical ownership of the 'stuff' is starting to look like a better deal with each passing day. They may screw with the markets, but in the end, it's whats in your hand that counts.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:38
Mike Sheller Hmmmm>(Hmmmm):
TED: You're unusually philosophic tonite. Are you smoking the vegetables instead of currying them this eve? Only kidding, my cyberfriend. It strikes me keenly how so many of us have indelible memories of State imposed trauma...You Kent State, RJ and Lebanon, my tour in 'Nam. And many others, I'm sure, quiet in their wonder and long buffered pain. It is one thing to intellectualize, but to see it erupt all around you is to shake the foundations of a narrow illusion of reality. Yes, IT can happen here. The view from the DOW: Dont look down! Little wonder those who have seen first hand the nightmare of an authoritarian power so acceptably imposed look for alternative routes by which to exit the madness that engulfs us all. But, now, I'm starting to sound like Cherokee. And he's far more poetic than I about these things.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:37
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up .20 and Dollar modestly lower...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:31
6pak Note @ Security Analysis>(Note @ Security Analysis):
Mike June 17 @ 14:50 GOLD GLOOM
Said an analyst at a major London Bullion House
* with all that going on * I can think of many reasons why the
price ( Gold ) * should * go down A quote of an unnamed source,
suggests poor journalism, unless of course, a bridge is being sold !

Economic Background of Security Values :
The soundness of a security purchase is determined by future develope-
ments and not by past history or statistics. But the future cannot
be analyzed; we can seek only to anticipate it intelligently and
to prepare for it prudently. Here the past comes in - through the
back door, as it were - because long experience tells us that
investment anticipations, like other business anticipations, cannot
be sound or dependable unless they are closely related to past performance. It is our own underlying thesis that the principles of
sound investment have not changed materially over the past half century, in spite of the tremendous and tragic events of the period and in spite of the major transformations in the economic, social, and political scene.

Historical Evidence as a Base :
Thus we propose to the reader that he ground his investment principles
solidly upon the record and the lessons of the last fifty years. This
may seem an unrealistic doctrine in a world that appears to have broken away from its moorings to the past. The United States has, it is true,
maintained its political stability; but our economic structure has been shifted far from its apparently firm laissez-faire and gold-standard
foundation of 1900.

Will the past behavior of American capitalism supply any clue to its future behavior - or even its future existence ? We do not feel called upon to make predictions on the latter score. Logic suggests that this seemingly basic question may be irrelevant to the work of the analyst.
He deals with corporate and governmental securities.

Their continued existence is the postulate from which he starts. If the postulate is wrong, there is nothing he can do about it - no significant alternatives he can offer the investor. To be sure, an understanding of
factors of change within the framework of capitalism may appropriately
influence investment decisions. But such evolutionary changes have been actively at work for at least a generation.
( Security Analysis - Graham and Dodd 1934, 1940, 1951 )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:28
WW @New England>(@New England):
I just caught it as a newsclip on cable where they were discussing the tug o war between the centrists and the leftists in the Clinton Admin. Apparently Erskine Bowles, the Investment Banker, is going back to NC. The story indicated Rubin was ONE of the possible replacements.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:24
NJ Rubin>(Rubin):
WW : Can you please post the url for that news.

All : a useful site for news

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:21
Mike Sheller They're all around me>(They're all around me):
WW: I was not much of a conspiracy theorist before getting into the internet, but I must say I've had that potential opened wide for me. Especially here among the paranoids at Kitco ( just kidding gang ) . Your take on the job being done on gold does not seem in any way far-fetched. Well summarized!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:19
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Steve Puetz ( 19:42 ) As I sit in my lonely outpost on the chilly waters of a foreign country in the North Atlantic, I can't but think how strange life really is...All my life I have been an anti-establishment radical and now I find myself in the position of defending the ultimate SYMBOL of that very establishment, the stock market...No, I don't think everything is OK with the system...never have....never will...and I too have spent much of my life thinking a crash of Western civilization let alone the stock market was right around the corner and maybe it's old age or something but my thinking has evolved into the concept that the world always seems to find a way to muddle through its problems...This is NOT to say there won't be major recessions or stock market declines but I just don't see a collapse of the proportions some here ( you, obviously included ) are predicting...I am sitting here now because 15 years ago I decided to take the RISK and invest in the stock market and those gains are now OUT of the market and what I have here is real and tangible...
I don't put all my eggs in one basket and hope my scenario plays itself out...In any event if your scenario should happen to take place I feel I am more suited than most to weather the storm as I have lived OUTSIDE the system most of my life and try to be as independant of the system as possible...I still can't believe that me a 60's radical who watched the goverment murder students May 4th 1970 at Kent State University is now in a way, defending that system...Ain't life WEIRD! and thank you for responding to me!!!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:19
WW @New England>(@New England):
The fix it with a news item factor is why gold must stay down and stks cant fall as news follows price. We must be getting close to something as even a 50 pt fall seems unacceptable or any little recovery in gold. Remember about 5 weeks ago when we had the 140 pt decline and Rubin charged back from Mexico. How have we done since then boys and girls!! Things must be getting fragile for the spin to be this intense.
Re credit card delinquincy decrease timing/remember the banks want their stk prices and stk options to keep rising too. The only thing they cant fudge is bankruptcy filings which are with the courts and are part of the public record. Their actions are creating a bubble which could only be created with the modern advancements in communication technology which allow the mania to reach an extent they ( Wall St. ) could only dream of in 1929. If they had only had electrinic media advancements like cable/satellites and the internet back ( not to mention derivitives and program trading ) then What the house of Morgan could have done. The foregoing advancements to improve mankinds situation is why Steve P. was 15 years early. It is also why this debacle will be unimagineable and why Wall St and the CBs are very nervous as indicated by the spin intensityt. Remember last Fall when the G-7 wanted to coordinate for a financial accident. If there are no imbalances as the govt says and everything is so great why do they need to consider such action..Hmm No irratinal exuberance from Greenspan/He doesnt want to be blamed for lighting the tinder box. Cant blame him can we. Reading between the lines there are big problems under the surface. The intense spin may be a sign that they are having trouble defending the fort.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:15
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
The stock market made an important high top today. I'm not sure yet if this is the exact top of this move. I am sure that we will have a sell off from here. Tomorrow will be a down day for the DOW. I was so close to selling the NYFE at 471.00 but decided to yet this market go down and then we will have a advance. This advance should NOT make a new high and on this failure I will go short.
I wish I had something to say about Gold. Watching Gold in the middle of the day today was like watching paint dry.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:15
Good friends at Kitco: This is for MOONEY. Tho it is a public exposition on SOME few facets of the Moon's relationship to astrology, it is a personal offering to an inquisitive soul. It is not meant for debate or ridicule. Save that for me. Not for Mooney and his desire for knowledge. MOONEY: The MOON in astrology is related to the 'personality.' In other words, there is the TRUE self, the SPIRIT, or whatever one wishes to call it, and the'personality' The personality is the identification with the physical body and the circumstances of birth: ie - sex, race, religion, culture, etc. These are transient and transitory details of life relative to the essential realities of existence, intelligence, sentience and will. The immaterial, immortal SELF in the body is YOU. The REAL you. The particulars of the 'personality' are subject to many causes and effects, but are transitory. They last only for this life, and often change WITHIN a single life. Astrology is predicated on reincarnation. That is why a human horoscope brings clues as to the destiny in the current life. Destiny has been accumulated and earned by actions and thoughts in previous lives. Getting back to the Moon, however, this celestial light gets its brilliance from the Sun. Just as the personality is really reflecting the SPIRIT, and often weakly, so the Moon can only reflect the light of the Sun. The danger of living in the personality, rather than the spirit, is that one may be easily distracted by the transitory and valueless nonsense of life, and other people1s delusions, rather than exploring the depth of conviction and illumination available to the highest inner faculties of one1s own true and permanent self.

The Moon is symbolic of The Mother, of the Culture one is born into, and the attachments and prejudices these breed. The Mother is one of the most impressive factors in a human life. Few escape the tangled impressions that must be worked out as a result of parental influences and aberrations.The Moon is also symbolic of the autonomic habit energy that prods us into repetitive and puppet-like activities and thoughts. We must break the spell of this waste of energy and will. We must control and eliminate influences that engender stimulus response actions in our thoughts and lives. When we do so, we take back the energy , will, and intelligence we have allowed to be manipulated by other people, institutions, illusions, nature itself, and erroneous thoughts and controlling habits. Then we retain that power for our own spiritual selves, and can function more efficiently, and with greater integrity, as the light within each of us dictates.

Mooney...are you overly sentimental? Do you put too much stock in what others claim to be true? Is you family very important to you. More so than most people? Is there much to work out vis a vis Mother and Parents issues?
Do you prefer Silver over Gold? Are you a steady, tenacious worker? If so, you may very well be responding to the Moon symbolically, in some way. Names and nicknames, to a metaphysician, are not accidental. ( Look at 'Greenspan' ) Otherwise, I am only being symbolic in my description of some of the psychological influences of the Moon as an astrological reference point. I have only exposed the tip of the iceberg. My intent is only to give a 'taste' of only ONE facet of the astrological art. I hope I have been of some intellectual, or perhaps even spiritual service. PS to the gang - for those who would say 'Sure Sheller, you could say that about anyone' - YES - We all have a MOON in our horoscope. WHERE it is located, and WHAT RELATIONSHIPS it has to other zodiacal points and planets, etc, supplies the individual details. But the Human Condition is essentially the same for us all.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:08
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:01
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
WW -- Most excellent! Thanks!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:01
WW @New england>(@New england):
Did y'all hear today that Rubin may become Clinton's Chief of Staff and step down as Treasury Secretary. Or does it really matter or does Bob know something. We can speculate if he takes the new position as he is competing with others.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 20:00
Jack WW>(WW):

WW: With just ten words, you said it all. If its a
problem fix it with a news item. Congrats.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:53
WW @New England>(@New England):
Conventional wisdom is gold stks precede gold. Well may be this time conventional wisdom is wrong and the lack of buying of gold stocks is really an indication of the overwhelming bearishness on gold to the point that investors ignore even rallies in gold. This unusual bearishness is actually a contrary indicator/ ie the public has completely bought the anti gold propaganda. Almost daily negative reports about a commodity nobody wants may mean Wall St may need help in keeping it down so the spin is intense. They Protesteth too much!!This whole thing is about confidence. In the last few days there has been expression of concern about consumer debt. What comes out today miraculously consumer debt delinquincies declined in first quarter. If its a problem fix it with a news item. The spin has to be perfect or confidence could be lost and the whole thing unravels. this is the best economy in 50 years and no end in sight so say some ( disinterested HaHa ) Wall St economists. Yeah personal bankruptcies always soar when the economy is so good. HaHa! Remember what country in the 1980s had full employment/low inflation and excellent economic growth ( at least according to official statistics ) Ans: the USSR!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:52
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve puetz -- Gold may not want to get off its dead ass but that should be no 'reflection' on how silver will move. Silver is/will be the best purchase in the metals that anyone can make! It'll be the biggest percentage gainer of them all, bar none!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:46
Puetz @ shone>(@ shone):
How about, silver was shining brightly today?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:45
PB somewhere>(somewhere):
Drugs, probably.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:44
Puetz @ Hi-yo silver>(@ Hi-yo silver):
Eldorado: You must be all smiles. Silver shone brightly today.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:42
Puetz @ Ted's 12:29>(@ Ted's 12:29):
Ted: No offense taken by your question. I have been wrong for the past 15 years on the stock market. But more important than that, I have been wrong for the right reasons, and the bulls have been right for the wrong reasons. Let me explain.

I recognized 15 years ago that our country and our government were in deep trouble. Some of the excesses at that time were just as extreme as 1929 -- especially the amount of deposits banks had loaned out.

My mistake at that time was not realized how far the US government would go to keep our credit system from collapsing. I was influenced by an argument by Tom Holt that the government would not risk its own credit to save the banks. That, however, was wrong.

The government has risked its credit. And now, like the banks a decade ago, the government stands in an insolvent state. The important question now: Who will bail the US government out of its financial mess during the next economic down-turn? Foreign central banks already have to a limited extent. But they are going to have to pony up bigger bucks than they have been willing so far when things really get bad.

I say I was wrong for the right reasons because I recognized the impossibility of rescuing our financial system a long time ago. The bulls, however, still don't recognize that there is any problem with our system.

Additionally, I mistakenly assumed the the extremes of 1929 and 1987 were extremes that were next to impossible to exceed. In 1997, we have far surpassed the prior manic-extremes used to measure excessive valuations. Nonetheless, absurd extremes do exist, and the increasing rate of credit difficulties seem certain to stop the bull market if the Fed does not -- and I doubt that the Fed will stop it. The bulls -- who have been right for 15 years in a row -- will never have a chance to get out. They will lose all they have made in the past 15 years rather quicly -- maybe in just a few weeks time. If this answer is insufficient, I am willing to answer anything I have left out here.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve Puetz -- Been away and busy. Always glad to get back! Noticed a few days back in the IBD that bancruptcies are very much still on the rise. That's the crack in the dam! This, in 'good' times! Wonder what'll happen when 'things' come apart a bit? It takes people earning money and with 'credit' to borrow. Without borrowing, the money for others to pay their loans doesn't come into circulation. The government will have to make up the shortfall of currency which means more spending on their part, and with less incoming revenues. Balanced budget? HAR!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:37
Este to PB>(to PB):
I can only assume that you have never read Newton's biography. The second part of his life was very sad and close to irrelevant in more than one way. What happend to his superior scientific mind? To this day nobody has been able to produce a valid explanation.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:32
Pepino di Cortino Bella Italia>(Bella Italia):

Mondo Cane, now you guyz, you know why; ina the Bella
Italia we no paya the tax and buya the gold. They
printa the substituta money becausa they no hava the taxa
and we happy. Mama Mia ama lova my Italia.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:30
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Geoffs -- Their 'reality' is to make paper their paper the king, not just for them, but for everyone! They can't get off 'it'. Their rational also means driving gold down just as far as they can and not letting it back up. ALL doomed to failure! They might have had a chance if they hadn't burdened us all with a 'debt-based' monetary system. That not being the case, there is no way I have ever heard of, or read of, or can yet imagine that can lead their system to any kind of salvation. Yes, they CAN sell all the rest of the gold that is in their vaults. It would be the best thing that could possibly happen, them putting ALL that back into the peoples hands. Very unlikely for that very reason IMHO since it would put all the REAL money where it belongs. Scare tactics are the order of the day since they now have very few teeth left in their old 'wizened' heads to bite with.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:28
Every gold fund lost value today ( all but two yesterday ) and that should give an indication that gold stocks are not in demand. In the past, gold stocks falling with a rising gold price usually results in a soon declining gold price unless there is a major news item spurring gold to new heights, which there is not. The recent relationship between gold and gold funds is very negative for both unless something happens soon.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:26
Mike Sheller ...and furthermore!>(...and furthermore!):
PB: Este describes Isaac Newton as an irrelevant footnote.!!!! You and I should only be so irrelevant. ROEBEAR: You are a wise soul.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:26
Puetz @ SPX Sept 825 put>(@ SPX Sept 825 put):
Panda: Did you see my posting around midnight last night -- regarding you question on the 825 put?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:25
PB somewhere>(somewhere):
Stop it Mooney, you're turning me on.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:24
Steve Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):
Eldorado: Glad to see you back at Kitco. I missed your absence over the past few days.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:23
Mike Sheller Too Little time, too much to say>(Too Little time, too much to say):
Good people of Kitco, Good Friends...I am overwhelmed. Such an interest in astrology! MIKE: Astrology is based on the SCIENCE of astronomy. But ASTROLOGY is an ART in and of itself. ESTE: I do not take your views on astrology personally. Before I got into it, I would have sounded like you. You say that you would rather live my life according to the rules I understand. Please do. I did not mean to disturb your perception of reality. Please forgive me if I did.
STRAD MASTER: My musical friend ( how I wish I had musical piano is now rusting in the garage - forgive me for that ) I am not, as you say forcing astrology into the realm of science. I said, over and over, it is an ART. An art BASED on science. Just like music. I have no interest, as you contend, in defending or elevating astrology, or to validate my years of study. Do YOU need to validate your years of study of music? And by WHOSE perceptions? Certainly not. If you were the worst musician in the world, and I were the worst astrologer, what difference would that make if we each found results, edification, and inspiration from our crafts? I am not, as you kindly inferred, necessarily an EFFECTIVE astrologer. However, you could ask several publicly known people who have been named often and in reverential awe at this site about some of my predictions and analyses concerning markets and nations. Professional and moral ethics keep me from mentioning most, but ask Alan Abelson , when he was editor of Barron's, since this is a public matter, about my prediction Six months in advance of the Fujimori Coup in Peru. Sometimes, dear Strad, I amaze myself...but that is the ART of astrology which is what is amazing. Someday perhaps I will be a GOOD astrologer. Are you a good enuf musician? Having grown up with many musicians and artists myself, I think your answer might be NO. Then you are blessed, and you will progress as a musician. If you also acknowledge that there are other things you are not good at, or know little about, you will also progress if you keep an open mind and don't judge in the manner that your conditioning has limited you.
MOONEY: Give me some time, Man. But I'll get back to you.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:20
Jack The keep the faith anti-gold conference>(The keep the faith anti-gold conference):

geoffs: That was the conference designed to keep the
faith in the present monetary madness.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:14
After reading about that GOLD conferance we are lucky the Gold stuff is not trading at $1.00. Where do these guys get off and face reality


Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:13
BW: Of course if that 10% happens to include some foreign govts who decide it's time to .. Ah, diversify their holdings, the midcourse correction could be ... Ah, dramatic?

As for the present and future effect of politics on the economy, I don't think there is even a slim chance that the US govt will, in anyway, ease its stranglehold on the economy. The will to power is too great.

As George has said, on more than one occasion, The Will of Heaven is on the side of greater govt expansion. With all that implies. Though one has to wonder where and how the additional taxes will be derived. .....Perhaps, as in the past, say the right words, make the right appeal, and the herd will crowd into the pen and demand to be sheared.

With fully 50% of gross income taken by govts, at all levels, it doesn't leave much room for additional theft. ... Without some backlash, that is. Additionally, since the system is presently configured and managed for the benefit of the moneyed classes, any major 'revenue enhancement' will have to be at the expense of the middle class.

Given the stretched and indebted position of the middle class today, some thought must be given to maintaining social stability. ......... Me and Bernatz gonna be lookin' forward to puttin' a turbo on the company guillotine; by damn! 'N it won't make no difference nohow if their name is Louis or not. ... ( :- ) )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:06
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Panda -- Most of that 'spending' has already occurred. A crash in the stocks should about finish it. When that happens, it'll also be found that foreigners will see little reason to be sending money here or into our paper. Eyes will begin to open! It behooves the Fed to keep it going at all costs, and just as long as they can do it. The end game was written when it was born!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 19:01
George S. Cole: what makes you think the coming stock decline is the end of the bull rather than just an overdue healthy correction?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:59
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Panda -- Oil and gold! Don't forget those golden grains soon too!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:57
panda @Adam.Smith>(@Adam.Smith):
There is much ruin in a nation. Translation, it takes a long time to spend down those assets built up over the generations, once done, the game is over.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:55
PB - Your bravery is astounding! Reminds me of what the Scots felt about the English bravery just before the big battle in the movie Braveheart. You know, when the thousands of Scots, as a man, turned and wiggled their butts at the English soldiers while at the same time lifting their kilts.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:50
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- per your 'posting' to me earlier: Your attempt to belittle a crash scenario and my thoughts on the subject only belittles yourself as one who cannot see the forest for the trees. Perhaps if you would post your reasons why the scenario can't/won't happen, some good discussion might ensue. I have plainly stated in the past that I would more than welcome someone putting forth good arguments against a crash type scenario. So far, only met by silence and with a piss-poor attempt at belittling posting by you. Surely, you can do better than that!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:49
George S. Cole gold outlook>(gold outlook):

Our views remain far apart; we will soon see who is correct. Why should gold go up if stocks tank? Because the end of the stock market boom combined with cresting of the global conservative tide will shatter extant investment, financial, and economic paradigms. Capital will start to run scared as the masses search for scapegoats. And when capital runs scared, gold surges.

You obviously feel that the impending stock market drop will be merely another brief interruption in an unending bull. I see it as something much more significant.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:48
Tort - @ ..find it amazing that when one of the metals decides to take off the other metals like shy maidens demurely step back so as to not
chance sharing the limelight with the precocious upstart. Silver could be once again taking the leading role. We'll soon see.
Bob - @ Never in the history of the gold market has there been a concerted effort by CB's to sell most of the gold stocks they own.
Wrong Bob! There is a concerted effort, maybe, to Talk the Gold price into staying low at this point in time, but do you Really believe tht their is a concerted effort to Sell? Give me a break. If I want to sell you something for a decent price I don't advertise to the world First, and with all my Co-owners approval, that what I'm about to sell you is certainly not worth very much. I won't say think about it because you don't need to think about that one too much!
bw and ted - THE cheapest point in real terms ( in our lifetimes anyway ) was a few years back when it troughed at about $3.60. Your Welcome!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:46
panda @>(@):
Cassey Ciphert ( sp? ) of the Nightly Busines Report is wearing a gold necklace with a black top for tonights program. Is there a hidden message here? I shall leave this to those who 'know'... :- ) )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:44
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I remember back in the late 60's when deficit spending would come into a conversation. The 'scholarly' college crowd would always sagaciously claim that 'we only owe it to ourselves'. Perhaps true then, but now we 'owe' the world. We do not now pay that interest to ourselves as bondholders like we used to. Now a very great percentage of it is paid to those whos major interests are in/about there own country. Whereas in the past, the people here would gladly buy more bonds for 'the cause', they will now tender their dollars to their mutual fund. I'm not saying I blame them for their currently astute observation that the stocks have been going up ( at least in some circles ) . Only that there now exists a lot of paper hanging out there that a lot of foreign purchasers could really give a damn about. Unlike individuals in this country holding it ( at least as they used to be ) , just let a bit of 'problem' develop somewhere and let us then see what 'they' do with their debt holdings.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:29
PB somewhere>(somewhere):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:25
PB - B Bbb Be Bee BRAVE! Tell us where somewhere is. Somewhere over the rainbow, somewhere around the corner - lurking as usual - in TIMBUCTUU?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 18:08
PB somewhere>(somewhere):
Mike Sheller: The work you are doing in astrology is important. It is clear from the comments provided by those who are opposed to it that they don't know enough about it to judge. I am particularly amazed by Este's description of Isaac Newton as an irrelevant footnote.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:57
bw Re: Earl, total debt>(Re: Earl, total debt):
Earl: In the last fourty or so years debt has grown geometrically. The whole bubble would have collapsed long ago except for the main force driving this mania, government. Government in this country has taken over about one half our economy. In the short and intermediate term they can do any insane worthless thing they please. Each wasted trillion does add up but its always on the cuff. People holding the debt live their lives as if they will receive value for the debt. A wealth effect backed by three generations of savings, all at dire risk. Were these people to think this debt worthless the economy would come to a screeching halt as everyone saved perhaps 10% - 20% of their earnings. And they would save it in THINGS. As long as the rules of the game are changed continuously the game goes on. But at some point the game becomes apparent to say 10% of the holders of this worthless paper, they attempt to protect themselves by selling the paper and the game is over. The gov has been very skillful in this game ( of course those trillions of our tax dollars can buy some brilliant minds ) . Perhaps it will not be over for quite awhile. Still, insurance is in order.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:31
to all,
read to very interesting articles abt the precious metal,the market really turn to east...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:25
Neffer Looking Up>(Looking Up):
Mooney: Could be its out. We are on the opposite sides of the clouds.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:19
Roebear @things not seen>(@things not seen):
Mike Sheller: discussing the technical aspects of astrology or any metaphysics here is like preaching temperance at a bar. Not likely to be an uplifting experience. I enjoy your posts and consider your comments valuable, astrology based and otherwise. When it comes to the metalsphysical, many things apply.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:19
Bob @...Mooney and GS Cole...Gold gloom article>(@...Mooney and GS Cole...Gold gloom article):
I disagree. The last sentance of the article is far from contrarian. The analyst stated that there were more reasons why gold should go down than go up. This is lucid plain talk on the subject. Never in the history of the gold market has there been a concerted effort by CB's to sell most of the gold stocks they own. Never. It is extremely optimistic that a sustainable reverse of gold price ( northward ) could be launched given the the current CB mindset. Additionally, a pending downdraft in stocks will not necessarily help gold. Why should it ?

I have most of my marbles in BGO and even with a conservative vested interest of ( 65% of 28 Mozs. au and 7 Bozs. cu ) gold and copper credits that indicate a market value only on the basis of its Cerro Casale find and excluding existing investments and gold production with Verde/Pancho with Amax as follows:

( 65% x [28 x.65 ( conservative recovery ) x [$340 - $100 cost ( after copper credits ) ]] ) = U.S. $2.8 Billion x .5 discount = $1.4 B

Since BGO has 108M shares outstanding an estimate of its value based on the Cerro casale find alone would indicate a valuation of U.S. $1.4 B
or U.S. $13 per share versus a close today of about U.S. $6.50 - a price that also discounts the values of Verde/Pancho/other junior plays not included in my calculation.

You hear what I'm saying ?

If the Gold Gloom article is pefect contrarian I hope that optimistism soom strikes and wakes up the market to even fair valued gold miners - like BGO - that are sitting on world class reserves that could be mined for less than $200/oz including capital costs.

Gentlemen, I respect your opinions but I don't see gold turning seriously for a long time yet. The CB's spoiled the party and the recovery will take many years until the CB's have depleted suficient gold reserves
so that their young thinking economic advisers ( however old ) could not cause instability to the gold market in future.

Cheers,... from a ( hopefully ) real contrarian indicator.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:11
bw Re: ted butler, real silver price>(Re: ted butler, real silver price):
ted: Dont have an official figure but just eyeballing it looks like about 1.60 silver in 1976. Which means we are cheaper now than any other time in history, with the possible sole exception maybe being 1.29 in 1972, and we are very close to that. Is your point that buying silver now is akin to buying gold at 35 in 1967. Good point!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:09
George, my friend, we are practically ALWAYS on the same wavelength. I don't know why and I don't care why. The only thing that really bothers me is that I can't find our channel ( wavelength ) on the FM dial!

Neffer ( I know who you are and ) - the moon is often out in the day time also, like RIGHT NOW!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:03
Neffer Far away and long ago>(Far away and long ago):
Mooney: Yes you are the Moon. And your teeth are like the stars***they come out at night. : )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 17:03
Strad Master Astrology>(Astrology):
MIKE SHELLER: I truly would like to believe in astrology. If I can claim one Piscean attribute it is that I am strongly attracted to mysticism and the intuitive arts. However, I've had to fight my tendency to be sucked in by such things all my life as I've discovered to my everlasting pain that most of the time such arts, more often than not, produce incorrect results. Elliot Wave theory is another of the mystical arts that I feel resides with astrology. Had I never heard of Elliot Wave Theory I'd be FAR better off today. That practicioners of such arts are sometimes right does not prove their validity. Witness Robert Prechter who's Elliot Wave work brough him to the height of superstardom but since has relegated him to the backwaters of investment fringedom. My biggest problem with what you wrote most recently to Este is your equating medicine with astrology. It is something of a platitude to lump them together as arts when there is nothing comparable about them whatsoever. Perhaps they were equatable in the 1600's when leeching was popular but certainly not today. The science of medicine has, through rigorous testing, produced advances in hygene that have extended man's lifespan by decades. Medicine has through scientific methods wiped smallpox off the face of the planet. Polio is no longer the scourge it once was. One hundred years ago children routinely died of ear infections that are easily treated with simple over-the-counter medicines today. The list goes on and on. Now, I know you'll say that mecical treatments ocassionally fail or produce dangerous consequences. But that is a disingenuous arguement because nothing is 100% effective where the human is concerned. The occasional anomaly doesn't invalidate medicine's effectiveness. It is percentages we deal with in every aspect of life. Can astrology produce anywhere near the percentage effectiveness of medicine? Are there any advances produced through astrology comparable to the eradication of smallpox? Two doctors, trained in medical schools at opposite ends of the country will both diagnose and treat an earache using the same medicine with equally effective result. Would two fine astrologers presented with the exact same chart produce the exact same reading? Of course not. That is where the intuitive art part comes in. Understandably, you wish to validate your years of study by trying to elevate astrology to the level of a science but that does more to undermine your credibility than anything else. Rather, I feel you ought to be proud of what you do on its own terms. That astrology, on occaion, produces interesting and even startling results cannot be denied but that is what makes it a true art - as opposed to a science. Being a musician I undertand this. It is somewhat akin to the difference between a fine musician and an acoustician. One does not invalidate the other and both can lead to a better understanding of music. In some respects, characterizing mecicine as an art elevates it far beyond what it is. Much of medicine is routine and predictable which is as it should be. Otherwise doctors would be totally ineffective, relegated to debating over the size, color, and aroma of bowel movemnts as was common before the advent of scientific thinking. I have no doubt that you are an extremely effective astrologer. But that only proves my earlier point about astrology being an art inextricably tied to your ( perhaps subconscious ) intuitive skills. Could you take a group of 20 interested students and teach them to be as skilkled and effective as you are ( give or take a small amount ) with little or no deviation in the basic readings? I suspect not. Yet, medical schools do that all the time.
Please don't get me wrong. I'm not against astrology at all. It's fun, fascinating, and even tremendoulsy helpful. I'm all for anything that can help others do better in life. Your predictions in the metals markets are just as good as anyone else's - perhaps better because you've trained that intangible, intuitive part of yourself. ( I'm very intuitive too. I consistently buy at the top and sell at the bottom - almost to the day. Perhaps I should send you my birth information and you can tell me what I'm doing wrong!? ) I think, though, that it is a mistake to try to force astrology into the realm of science. It is also a mistake to try to elevate medicine into more of an art than it is. Doing these things does a disservice to both. Thanks.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:56
Tortfeasor Comment and joke>(Comment and joke):
I find it amazing that when one of the metals decides to take off the other metals like shy maidens demurely step back so as to not chance sharing the limelight with the precocious upstart. Whatever became of the three partner dance? Will we sally forth to that upbeat tempo again? With those poignant thoughts I post a joke which I may or may not have previously posted. I hope that if I did post this before you all have a short memory span and don't remember it. Well off to some more work.

Three men are sentenced to death for various crimes against a
mythical and oppressive state. One is a priest, another is a drunkard,
and the third is an engineer.

The first to face the executioner is the priest. When asked if he
wanted to lie face down or face up on the guillotine, he said,
I'll lie face up! I have nothing to fear. The Lord is on my side!
So he lay on his back and faced the razor-sharp blade. When it
was released, the blade fell half way and stopped. The executioner
exclaimed, This must be divine intervention. You are pardoned,
and you may leave.

The next was the drunkard. When asked the same question, he chose
to lie face up like the priest, saying, I'm a drunk, not an idiot. So
he lay on his back, too, facing the sharp blade as the sun glinted off its keen edge. Again, the blade fell only half way and stopped. The
executioner exclaimed, The lord is generous today. You are pardoned,
and you may also leave.

Finally, it was time for the engineer. He also chose to lie on his back.
After all, it seemed that was the lucky thing to do that day. He lay on his back looking up at the heavy blade tensing against the rope. Just before the blade was let loose he shouted, Wait, I think I see the problem.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:54
Mike Sheller, my usually unperturbable kitco friend, @13:15, you mentioned that ( Astrology ) , meant to teach you what the Moon IS. Do you know? Well for many years people have been asking me what the moon really is, and since I am the Moon, and since you seem to have that answer, please let me know what I really am, O.K.? ( Trust me, I wouldn't ask this question of anyone else, - I'm afraid the answers might be unpublishable! )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:42
George S. Cole>(
MOONEY: We are on the same wavelength!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:39
George s. Cole conservatives and liberals.>(conservatives and liberals.):
XAU and HUI down modestly; August gold off $1.10. Still think we are going lower, but the next MAJOR move will be up and its getting close.

To continue the political discussion, the right just suffered a major defeat in New York City -- a strong Republican effort to end, or at least greatly weaken, New York City's rent control laws was soundly defeated. Despite the orgy of enrich the rich legislation now on the table in Washington, the tide is beginning to turn. So far just a few straws in the wind here in the good old USA, but evidence is mounting that global conservative tide has crested.

Far sighted investors should be giving serious consideration to the changing global political balance of power and its market implications. I've said it before and will say it again -- this is long-run super bullish for gold and potentially very bearish for our hyper-inflated markets.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:37
ALL! Mike's 'GOLD GLOOM' URL that he gave us at 14:50 is a MUST read for every serious participant at this site. The summary that is given is a masterpiece of negative sentiment that is the PERFECT example to give us a contrarian-type signal that the lows are happening right now. ( In addition to the Captn's signal ) . Therefore I now believe that either: 1 ) the lows are in place or that, 2 ) we will experience a sharp downward spike which will then spike back up. Either way it is soon time to cash in the chips and lay them on the table. Louis, Louis, Louiiiiieeee!!!! ( I know, - calm down, Mooney, calm down ) .

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:21
Jack F.T. Gold Conference at Prague>(F.T. Gold Conference at Prague):

It's understandable that the credit mongrels ( moguls ) can
convince a few budding analyst at the FED to recommend
that all the CB's sell ( all ) their gold; but when they
influence the editor of the Mining Journal to predict
that 18.8 millions annual sources of new gold will be in
pipeline in the next few years -Something stinks.

This assumes that one hundred ( 100 ) new mines will
produce an average of 188,000 new ounces each. No
mention of the present and future closures were made.

Or is the Mining Journal seeing higher gold prices ahead?

Even if this is the case, 100 new mines producing an
average of 188,000 ounces, cost alot and many even have
problems; seems to be tooth fairy stuff. Or as Bernatz
may zay Zee bullsheet.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 16:09
Byron @ Hold That Line:>(@ Hold That Line:):
Gosh, all those wonderful stories coming across the newswires about the death of gold. Yet Gold does not break. Holding above $340. Hmmm, I wonder what the boys in New York and London are worried about : )

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 15:37
AMNESTY @onboard hepcats sharkcat>(@onboard hepcats sharkcat):
Just took a dive. MFs are now clutching at straws!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 15:22
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Things are still soooo sloooow....You are forgiven Panda!..XAU down .98

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 15:13
panda @>(@):
BOY! Talk about browser problems..... Sorry about the repost.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 15:12
Este to Mike Sheller>(to Mike Sheller):
Please don't take my views on Astrology too personally. Yesterday I gave what I hoped was a clear explanation of the faulty premises on which Astrology is based. Obviously I didn't express myself in a clear enough fashion to convince you.
No sound building can be built on defective foundations. The arcane nature of Astrology can appeal to the mystical aspirations of the so inclined, but I would rather live my life according to rules that I understand.
I am aware that much science is not only imperfect but also extremely complicated.
I also agree with you that medicine, as practiced in western society is far from flawless, but this has nothing to do with the Astrological aspiration to provide explanations of any sort.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 15:11
panda @>(@):
Interesting story on PGMs in Russia;

Intersting quote from a news story ( shhh! Don't tell anyone that I did this! )

Meanwhile, NYMEX July platinum was down a further $6.40 an ounce at $417.50, as liquidation of July contract positions continued by funds.
Open interest in July platinum fell a further 1,247 lots overnight to 10,445 contracts, while open interest in the October and January contracts rose.

July platinum enters its first notice day in two weeks time with open interest equivalent to 522,250 ounces still outstanding against NYMEX platinum stocks of only 54,700 ounces.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 14:50
Mike @>(@):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 14:49
John Disney>(
Someone asked me a day or so ago about the upcoming dries dividend
which was final and would be 75 cents. I said not likely because I
did not see how they could make enough to cover that by end June. Well
they HAVE declared a 75 cent final div end june following the same amount
end december. Their earnings will be out in about a month.
There is a rumour that Buffels shareholders are so upset about the
DD merger that the whole deal may fall through. This is a rumour that I
may have started myself so I would wait for confimation before doing

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 14:18
JayDee @TheROCK>(@TheROCK):

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:59
Shek interesting stuff>(interesting stuff):
U.S. TRADING SUMMARY: Wall Street stocks tumbled in morning trading
on Tuesday, prompting the New York Stock Exchange to set trading curbs at
about 10 a.m. EDT. Analysts said the U.S. May Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) ,
which rose 0.1 percent, compared to the anticipated 0.2 percent rise, would not have a great impact on stocks. Housing starts and industrial production figures also would not affect the market other than to give investors an excuse to sell stocks and take profits after last week's six-day record-setting run, analysts said.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:49
Mike @>(@):
MIKE SHELLER: Please explain to me, even if only in the briefest most sketchy form, what science astrology is based on.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:45
ted butler question for bw>(question for bw):
bw, how about an inflation adjusted price for silver from 1976 and 86

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:44
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Mike Sheller : I totally agree with you!!! It's easy to be jack of all trades and master of none. Everyone uses what they think is the correct formula for predicting the markets, but no one on this forum has it, including myself. If someone did , they wouldn't be posting it here , they would be in the Caymen Islands with John the geologist. I find all theorys have some merit, depending on the individuals who express them.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:41
panda @>(@):
Interesting story on PGMs in Russia;

Intersting quote from a news story ( shhh! Don't tell anyone that I did this! )

Meanwhile, NYMEX July platinum was down a further $6.40 an ounce at $417.50, as liquidation of July contract positions continued by funds.
Open interest in July platinum fell a further 1,247 lots overnight to 10,445 contracts, while open interest in the October and January contracts rose.

July platinum enters its first notice day in two weeks time with open interest equivalent to 522,250 ounces still outstanding against NYMEX platinum stocks of only 54,700 ounces.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:36
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
Why Australian interest rates keep dropping while everyone else's
are moving up
It's so depressing, it's time to hit the sack.
For those forcasting a depression, it may have started here already.
To cap it off, we may just get a national drought to go with it, if
the forecasts are correct ( El Nino effect over Australia ) .

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:20
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
More interesting contrarian views:
It is also nice for a change to be able to get thru to all the sites
super fast. DBC is fine from here. Dow Industrials up, just, but Dow Utilities down a bit.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:18
panda @>(@):
Ron, TED -- My double post was due to a veeery slow response from the 'net. I submitted my post, then I saw an error in it, stopped it, corrected it, re-submitted, and then didn't get a response back! All this was from home!

Why home? Internet is too unreliable for trades I sometimes do during the day. Gee, did I say that?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 13:15
Mike Sheller Let me play among the stars>(Let me play among the stars):
ESTE: Well, you've convinced ME. I guess now I'll simply give up astrology now that you've exposed it for what it is. Boy was I fooled.
Seriously, though, I would ask first what knowledge ( besides the nonsense in the daily paper ) you have of astrology. If you have not studied it seriously, then, and please forgive my bluntness, you don't know of whereof you speak. You do not accept astrology as a science, nor do I. It is an art. So is medicine and surgery. Yet you would likely put yourself under the knife or the chemical care of a physician who might very well kill you. Where are the checks and balances of science there? No science or art if you will as ambitious as astrology, which is metaphysics and self knowledge, or healing, are perfect. Astrology has not put men on the Moon, that is true. It is not meant to. It is meant to teach you what the Moon IS. Do you know? Or do you know only the narrow physical descriptions and assertions you have been told since childhood. Then you knoiw only part of what you should know as a citizen of this universe.
Astrology is not meant to put men on the Moon. But, then, neither is accounting, or dentistry, or philosophy, or the culinary arts, music, or journalism. How does that invalidate astrology? YOU didn't get us to the Moon, so does that invalidate YOU? I think not. I hope not. I think the best answer to skepticism about astrology was given by Newton, who was one. He told a scoffer Sir, you know nothing about it, so are not qualified to speak one way or the other. When you have studied it as long as I have, come back and give me your opinion. See you in 20 years my friend.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:51
bw Buy some Gold:>(Buy some Gold:):
Its looking more and more like a good bottom is forming in the noble metal.

o Consensus of 32%, coupled with the 32% of several weeks ago puts us about where we were when 340 first stopped the down move. This consensus action is a double bottom over six months. Could we put in a tripple bottom? Of course, so just buy 1/2 of your position now, or 1/3, but this formation alone warrants buying something.

o Gold holding as stock market goes to moon. Gold should be moving the other way at a somewhat commensurate speed. Golds refusing to drop below 340 is telling us something. Maybe like enough is enough!

o Central banks to give away, er sell, all their ( our ) gold. Get real. The only possible reason I can see for a study such as this, is panic. The gold bid world-wide between here and 275 probably exceedes their supply. The next study will be the one that proves gold owners have no sex life. How about this one Guns grain and gold found to be a deadly brew. Big rich eyes are watching gold, maybe the amount offered here is not deep enough for them.

o This forum has told us gold has bottomed in Australia. Sounds good to me.

o The best is last. Gold adjusted for inflation is now as 106 gold was in 1976. I remember the time, the best four years of my life as a trader. I have dreamed of going back. In retrospect buying gold as it reacted to 100 was the no brainer of all time. I had orders down to 80 and cried when we could not break 100, just like i'll cry this time if we dont break 330.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:39
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
Mgraves: Flyin seagull turd about to drop on ya....Is Kitco veeeery slooow to anyooooone elseeee....or is it just meeeeeeeee...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:34
Ron: A vast part of the Internet was down yesterday. Even our Intra-Day charts had problems. However, they are up to snuff again today. See XAU, DOW, Gold, Platinum, Palladium etc:

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:29
TED @stevepuetz>(@stevepuetz):
Steve Puetz ( super stock market bear ) : Steve, you seem like a nice guy and this is NOT meant to be offensive but by your own admisson you missed the ENTIRE 15 year bull market so what makes you so sure you are suddenly correct on the stock market? If you are a perpetual bear on the SM, eventually you will be correct but unless we go back and visit Rod Sterling and enter the Twilight Zone and then take a trip to the PAST, we'll never see DOW 300 let alone 250 again....I pay more attention to SM bulls ( that have been correct on the market so far ) that turn into SM bears....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:25
panda @>(@):
Ron -- We have that problem at times now. Don't need a billion share melt up or down, day to do it!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:25
panda @>(@):
Ron -- We have that problem at times now. Don't a billion share melt up or down, day to do it!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 12:15
Ron Bandwidth or Provider?>(Bandwidth or Provider?):
Man, oh, man! Can't get quotes from or EBN this morning. And I can get no more than the last few postings to Kitco. And in these mkts, too!! I'm becoming more and more convinced that a proprietary data feed is the only solution. I'd hate to find myself reliant on the web when the big crash comes and volume hits one billion. The web will be absolutely gridlocked on that day.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 11:47
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
Opening the door to another banking crisis. Article in the latest
Business Week.
Howdy from Perth. It was a fantastic day - 24 degrees Celsius, & no
rain. Not bad for the middle of winter!!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 11:02
Este on Astrology>(on Astrology):
Strand Master, I find your interpretation of Astrology the only possible one to justify its existence.

Mike Sheller, it isn't Astrology that has put man on the moon and developed the science that allows you to transmit your thoughts via computer. Astrology is not and will never be accepted as a science with all the rigorous checks and balances associated with it.
In today's world, as imperfect as it is, I can't see any place for Astrology.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 10:42
Strad Master>(
MIKE SHELLER: Thanks for your thoughtful comments on my post regarding Astrology. I don't want to spend time now responding while the markets are open but I'll print it out, digest it and ( if time permits ) respond later tonight. OK? Never having had a chance to engage a professional astrologer in such a dialogue, I look forward to learning. more. The other altrnative is e-mail but I suspect many here might enjoy and benefit from the discusion. Thanks again.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 10:16
Conspiracy Nut USSA Participants>(USSA Participants):
Current List of BilderBurger Particpants from the USSA: ( No onions, please! )

P. Allaire - Xerox Corp.
A. Armacost - Brookings Inst.
R. Bartley - Wall Street Urinal
L. Bentson - Former Sec. of the Treasury
S. Berger - Ass. to the President of Security Affairs
F. Bergsten - Inst. for Inter. Economics
R. Bernstein - Book Critic, thats right, Book Critic!
J. Bryan - CEO Sara Lee Corp.
J. Corzine - CEO Goldman Sacks & Plunder
K. Dam - Prof. Univ. of Chicago Law School
O. Gadiesh, COB Bain Co.
L. Gerstner - CEO IBM Corp.
L. Hamilton - Indiana CongressCritter
R. Holbrooke - Former Ass. Sec. CS First Boston
M. Jacobi - Former Ass. Sec. of Commerce
V. Jordan - Senior Partner AGSHF LLP
H. Kissinger - Former Sec. of State and One Worlder
W. Lewis - Dir. McKinsey Global Inst.
W. McDonough - Pres. Fiat Currencies of New York
S. Nunn - Former GA Senator and Anti-Gun Weenie
J. Page - Chief Economist of One World Currency - World Bank
C. Powell - Former COB Joints Chiefs of Staff
D. Rockefeller - COB Chase Manhattan Bank
S. Rockefeller - Pres. WETA-TV
J. Sheinkman - COB Amalgamated something or other
L. Stahl - BubbleHead CBS
G. Stephanopoulos - Former Advisor to the Pres. on Covering His Assets
E. Vogel - Prof. of Socialism Harvard
P. Volcker - Former FedHead
S. Weiss - COB NSI
J. Whitehead - Former Dep. Sec of State
P. Wolfowitz - Former UnderSec. of Defense for Policy
C. Yost - Dir. Inst. Study of Diplomacy

The above come from either gov or fields in finance, industry, labour, education and the media.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:58
Your Morning Smile from Canada - To be stupid, selfish, an have good health are three requirements for happiness, though if stupidity is lacking, all is lost. -------- Gustave Flaubert

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:29
MoreGold @LanMan>(@LanMan):
Right on! Now is the time to get in when all the chips are down, and
everybody and their grandmother is buying the Dow and selling Gold Calls....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:24
Lan Man Are They Running Out of Things to Say?>(Are They Running Out of Things to Say?):
Notice how many negative press releases have come out in the past few days? With that one posted by Jin Over 18moz of new gold seen set for market they are now warning us all of Potential Production. With CB's now holding 2/3 less of the above ground supplies than they did back in 1957, and talk by the US Fed to prompt other CB's to sell their gold, pretty soon we will have no reason to hold their paper currency, after all, we control the real money now - GOLD.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:22
panda @>(@):
Nasty selling going on in London, European bourses off for the most part to. Gold seems to be rcovering a bit. Silver is up on EBN. Hope springs eternal!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:18
George S. Cole bulls and bears>(bulls and bears):
Fundy: I still see the financial bull and gold bear changing places this summer. Only question is how high stocks go and how low gold and gold sink over the next month or two before the big reversal.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:02
Lan Man Flight To Quality>(Flight To Quality):
Rcvd the Miles Franklin Quarterly May/June issue yesterday. Quoted on the front page was non other than our esteemed Kitco poster - Steve Puetz. They quoted his March 21 newsletter in which Steve wrote As the stock market crash gains intensity, expect worried investors to run to the financial safety of the precious metals in a Flight To Quality. The precious metals are the only monetary assets external to our collapsing credit system. Buy gold and silver for safety reasons.

The above statement reflects the number one reason to purchase gold and silver - For Safety Reasons. With the average net worth of the baby boomers at just $2,600., with margin debt having tripled in the last 6 years, with debt as a percent of annual disposable income exploding up from less than 70% to it's current level of 93%, with international dirivatives exceeding $60 trillion, with financial asset inflation ( read hyper inflation ) in the stock market, with the Euro less than 18 months from reality replacing 30-50% of US dollars now held as reserves, NOW is the time to Get Real and Buy Gold and Silver!

Besides, who said you can't take it with you?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 09:01
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
MGraves: Low flyin seagull overhead...SPLAT!...S+P futures not reacting well to CPI and housing data or they just decided to sell off all by their lonesome...S+P futures down 2.70 ...maybe we'll hit DOW 250 TODAY!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 08:59
Fundy Washout>(Washout):
George S. Cole: RE: 6:02. Why do you thing the upcoming decline for gold stocks that you see while be the final washout?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 08:37
TED @longbond>(@longbond):
Long bond @ unch...make that minus 1....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 08:33
Tort: SICK...I love it! was almost unbearable....CPI= as expected..
CPI up 0.1% and the old core rate up 0.2%...but housing starts down more than expected ...down 4.8%......Bond up 3 ticks!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:52
Tortfeasor Bonus joke>(Bonus joke):
George Cole, I think we've got a bear with nine lives in this gold market. Given that, a bear story is in order appropriate for the time.s

Bill's all excited about his new rifle. So, he goes bear hunting in

The first bear he sees is a little brown bear, and he kills it with his
first shot. Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to see a big black bear. The black bear says You've got 2 choices: either I beat you to death or you French kiss me.
Bill thinks for a minute and then dutifully kisses the bear.

Bill's tongue is sore for 2 days and when he recovers he vows to take revenge. He goes back, finds the black bear and kills him.
Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to see a huge
grizzly is standing right behind him. The grizzly says: That was a big mistake. You've got 2 choices: either I beat you to death or we kiss in the French way. Bill prepares for the kiss of a lifetime.

Now, Bill's tongue is really hurting, and he's outraged.
He goes back, finds the grizzly and shoots him at point blank range.
Suddenly he feels a tap on his shoulder. He turns around to find an
enormous polar bear. The polar bear says You don't really come here for the hunting, do you?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:47
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort ( 7:42 ) stray cats either!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:43
TED @thailand>(@thailand):
S.E.T. down 13.83 ( 2.70% ) ...Taiwan @ seven year high...CPI in 47 minutes!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:42
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Good morning ted and the rest of you fine fellow and ladies. 17, eh? Not bad. Must be a keeper. Investing in the gold market reminds me of the following story.

A man travels to Spain and goes to a Madrid restaurant for a
late dinner. He orders the house special and he is brought a
plate with potatoes, corn, and two large meaty objects.

What's this? he asks.

Cojones, senor, the waiter replies.

What are cojones? the man asks.

Cojones, the waiter explains, are the testicles of the bull
who lost at the arena this afternoon.

At first the man is disgusted, but being the adventurous type,
he decides to try this local delicacy. To his amazement,
it is quite delicious. In fact, it is so good that he decides to
come back again the next night and order it again. This
time, the waiter brings out the plate, but the meaty objects are
much smaller.

What's this? he asks the waiter.

Cojones, senor, the waiter replies.

No, no, the man objects. I had cojones yesterday and they
were much bigger than these.

Senor, the waiter explains, the bull does not lose every

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:39
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: 17 years and counting and counting fer me...pretty

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 07:13
HI JIN: Good post at 6:13....Sounds like Thailand took another big hit on Tuesday's trading...hahaha...CPI out in 77 minutes!..Mike Sheller ( 6:48 ) Nice to know the vegetarians weren't forgotton...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:56
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down 1.05....What ever happened to Shorty Bull

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:48
Mike Sheller Now I'm wide awake>(Now I'm wide awake):
EB: Welcome. If we can't turn up our noses at SOMEONE now and then, we might as well be watching TV. RJ: Give me this - around May 22 or so I told QT in these hallowed halls that the top of the Palladium rally would be a run to 240 best case scenario. While I admit it came faster than I thought, and I was a bit skeptical about it maxing out there, it was indeed prescient. No, I didn't use any horoscopes either. Just price chart analysis. Until August gold goes below 341, I'm sticking with a rally ahead. BERNATZ: Why is it you always bring tears of laughter to my eyes? You have such away with words.
VRONSKY: The first thing I did in basic training on my first KP was to sneak into the mess sergeant's office and copy down the recipe for SOS. It was for a hundred fifty people, so I naturally had to invite lots of folks the first time I made it. I've made it ever since. Even have a vegetarian recipe for it for Ted.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:39
Mike Sheller Where does one begin?>(Where does one begin?):
STRADMASTER: Your comments are very wise for one who is not conversant with the ancient art. Except that it DOES matter whether Jupiter is in Aquarius or Pisces. There are most definitely specific mathematical actualities to be dealt with in astrology. The intuitive aspect you sagaciously divine is indeed important as well. Just as it is important for any scientist to make that extra leap when all the facts are before him/her. That is the leap which makes the difference between a brilliant scientist and a mere statistician, or a good astrologer and a bad one. I am not a mystic, and astrology is not mystical. Mysticism is action and inspiration that cannot be explained in a rational, systematic manner. Had we the time, I could outline for you the basis of astrology in a rational way that would allow you to formulate questions. Those questions would move you along to a noetic understanding, and my further instruction would make sense, etc. But that is a course of study, and will work with anything teachable. There is a system to the structure of the zodiac which is the essential abstract metaphysics of the circle ( 360 degrees ) and its divisions . In a sense, just as the Eliott Wave is really a reflection of the Octave in nature, so the Zodiac is a technical pattern for the point emerging out of nothing, and becoming the full circle. There is NOTHING in this universe, seen and unseen, that is not connected to something else. Distance ( the stars, etc ) is relative and an illusion. You must think beyond the boundaries of the ordinary which you have been fed by narrow minds for too long. We are really discussing the philosophy of manifestation, and ORDER of manifestation of things. In its mundane applications, astrology can very often isolate time windows of activity for the entities analyzed ( people, corporations, nations, institutions, anything with a birth date ) In its esoteric and highly philosophical/metaphysical applications it can describe the very structure of what we think is reality. Few have used it for that purpose, but then that is another story. Since you are not familiar with the actual practice of astrology ( to be so would require several years of study and utilization of what has been learned, just like music ) you will just have to take my word that the technical application in the right hands can provide some very useful information. Information that would be impossible to obtain by other, more conventional ( and far more deluded ) means. Yes, intuition is the difference between inspired astrology and the merely mundane. But is this not so in trading, the arts, philosophy, medicine, science, and even fishing and boxing? Astrology, like medicine, is an ART based on SCIENCE. There are good doctors and bad ones. Some even kill people. I tremble at the day when everyone becomes an astrologer. I will then have to go off and truly become a mystic.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:21
George S. Cole gold bullion and gold stocks >(gold bullion and gold stocks ):
August gold down $1.20 a few minute ago as yet another rally fizzles. Again goes to show that when gold stocks and gold bullion move in opposite directions, trust the stocks. Still looks like bullion will break $340 on the downside and the stocks will be hit by a final washout before this bear ends.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:13
OH....happy trading.....

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 06:02
John Disney>(
For Bernie
How can you expect me to quote you accurately if I refuse to read
your posts You ask too much. I heard on the grapevine that you vote
Republican - Not good but better than voting Democrat - Dont read this either

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 04:37
Bernie Mad Republican>(Mad Republican):
John Disney.... yours of Mon. 03:16. Don't read this. Don't put words in my mouth, and quote me accurately. I do not want more government. I want less government! I want the super rich ( defined in previous post ) and the corporations they control, and use to evade taxes, to pay their fair share. Page 53 of the 1040 form, schedule Y-1, 39.6% of the amount over $256,500. How many of the 400 Forbes billionaires do you think fairly paid 39.6% of the amount over $256,500 like so many millions of Americans did?

I have voted Republican for 40 years! The next election might be the end of that streak. This Republican leadership can not get their heads on straight! The disaster bill was a public relations disaster. And I can not believe they are trying to eliminate the minimum corporation income tax. I fully expect some Republican nut with his five minutes to suggest every disabled American should have to work for his government check.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 02:58
Ron @12:43: Playing catch up here ..... and I gotta say that any man who quotes that ole reprobate, Ambrose Bierce, hates kids and depises dogs; must have some redeeming qualities. ....... ( :- ) ) Great collection of one liners, Ron.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 02:57
Strad Master Does this make sense?>(Does this make sense?):
ESTE: I am a dyed-in-the-wool skeptic myself and suspect that most of astrology on its face is pure bunk. The idea that stars at such vast distances could in any way, shape or form, influence the lives of us lowly humans is absolutely ludicrous. However, having experienced an occasional remearkable prediction based on astrology I find myself seeking a more terrestrial explanation. I look at it this way: whatever value astrology has ( or for that matter any form of divination ) comes not from the method itself but from the deeper intuition of the practitioner. Undoubtedly, there are people who possess remarkable intuitive skills - skills which they may not be fully aware of or even able to quantify but which they can tap into with great ease. Such skills also are not necessarily all that mystical. The ability of a human to observe the behavior of an individual, learn from those observations, and extrapolate to predict the behaviour of others in similar circumstances is nothing short of mirabculous in appearance but is actually quite a mundane ability that we all posses to one degree or another. Technical analysis of markets, in some respects, relies on the same sort of observational ability - and I'm sure you'll agree that some do it far beter than others. Astrology, then, merely provides a framework for projecting out the astrologer's intuitive processes in a way that can be helpful to the person wishing to understand their life better. So, it doesn't really matter whether Jupiter is really in Aquarius or Pisces - only the intuitive abilities of the astrologer make the difference. Mike Sheller - any comments?

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 02:25
John Disney>(
for Polarbear
Missed your query about effectiveness certified letter to
broker telling him not to sell options. I doubt this will work
but you can try. I think the problem lies with ADR issuing banks.
Check it out first.Maybe Im wrong. I hope so. Check with Brokerman.
Give him incentive to do homework and get facts.Mention you have
large baseball bat in garage. Maybe I worry over nothing

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 02:14
Walter Huston treasure@Sierra Madre>(treasure@Sierra Madre):
Its the GOLD that does it. Never knew a prospector that died rich

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 02:11
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@watch zee girls>(le_fou@watch zee girls):
For Monsiour Mooney
About zee poor King Louis an what you zay about
heez waff influence heem unduly - As zey say in zee
lan down undair you got zat right mite by dam.
For Monsiour RJ - You write in zee Engleesh so
vairy well - Ah lak zee part about zee child bearing
heeps - eet -ow you zay - turm me on a leetle

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 01:58
John Disney>(
For the PolarBear
If you enter DD consolidation via buffels ( at 1.3:1 )
or Blyvoor ( at 5:1 RSA share basis ) you do not get the
DD option.
The new option applies to OLD holders of DD stock ( 50
options per 100 shares ) . All outstanding options of DD
are rolled into the new option. Blyvoor options are to
be rolled into the new options at 5:1.
For example, IF DD trades at 21 and you value the
option at 6 rand then when the consolidation takes
place, the DD stock goes ex ( explained perfectly
by someone else ) , and drops by 3 rand ( value half an option
per share ) to 18. Thus the break even value of a
buffels share is 18/1.3 = 13.85 and the bev of Blydy
is 18/5 = 3.6. Buffels is trading below bev at 12 ish
and I should buy more with bags of cash from lebowa
sale. However I already have too much and this
consolidation is like a dog's breakfast and Im not
really sure Ive valued the option right but it seems
OK ( going via buffels is like a free 15% more DD ) .
For adr holders the above would set blydy adr at
3.6*3/4.5 = $2.4 which is where it is. So my
assumptions on Buffels look fine. I am told that the
price of Buffels is out of line because some big
shareholders wanted a better deal and are peed off
and seem to be punishing themselves by selling into
weak market. Sorry to be so wordy and hope I made no

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 01:39
MADOG Smokin'up a storm>(Smokin'up a storm):
CHEROKEE-good to see you posting again. I dont post very often but lurk every night. I not only enjoy your posts but find that i cant disagree with you on anything. I've been a strong believer in the laws of nature and that they encompass EVERY aspect of our lives. Fool with Mom Nature and eventually, She will be knocking at your door. Action / Reacttion ---such a simple concept , but is ignored time and time again.

Keep up the great posts and happy trading.


Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 00:25
Big Chief Gold Bull Goldum Pow Wow in Prague>(Goldum Pow Wow in Prague):

HOW: Great White banker's ( sharkums ) and broker's have-um
the confidence that great white General Custer havum,
before we whippum ass at Little Bighorn.
Only Frenchum central banker Patat speakum truth, him
readum Pomboy letter.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 00:21
Hi all! Been lurking and learning for some time now. It is quite addicting just to lurk. Someday I will have something decent to pass on. Jake Bernstein ( he is a SERIOUS trader so don't turn up the noses ) has a web page that he updates weekly. hit reload for this weeks commentary. Many will find this interesting.
Thanks for your time...

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 00:20
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Steve Puetz : Thanks for your tip, I have some gold shares that are about 7c at the lowest ( 70c highest in 1994 ) and I bought at 9c. If we get a small rally soon, I think they may go to 0.105c. I'm woundering whether a crash will knock me off. Perhaps I may just have to hang on for ride eh!

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 00:14
The Judge @ heaven>(@ heaven):
Crystal Ball, 10 Hail Mary's and 2 Rosaries as penance for that joke.

Date: Tue Jun 17 1997 00:10
Steve Puetz Scott @ the bank>(Scott @ the bank):
Scott: A stock market crash will be the best thing for gold since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold and silver should soar as investors rush to the metals in a flight to quality. Gold stocks will probably be torn between collapsing stock values and rising gold prices. They may sell off during the crash, but they should more than recover after it. Wait until the crash to pick up bargains in gold shares.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:55
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
If a stock crash happens, what do you think gold will do including gold stocks?

Any ideas ?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:50
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
Previous post had OLD chart...Sorry.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:47
Crystal Ball @Stock Market Bear Perdition>(@Stock Market Bear Perdition):
Tort: Here's your joke for the day- A man walks into confessional and says, Forgive me Father for I have sinned...
The priest replies, What is it that brings you here?
Well father, I used the F-word over the weekend.
Oh is that all? Say five Hail Mary's and may the Lord be with you.
The man replies, but I really need to talk about it.
Let's have it then, the priest says, leaning back on his hard wooden bench.
You see Father, I was playing golf this weekend and on the first tee, I lined up my drive and proceeded to hit a nasty slice into the trees.
And that's when you cursed aloud? the Father queried.
No, not yet. As luck would have it, I found my ball and had a clear shot to the green from a nice lie; when all of a sudden, a squirrel scampered out of some bushes, picked up my ball by its teeth and darted up a tree.
That must have been when you cursed?
No, because just as the squirrel had climbed to the top of the tree, a bird swooped out of the skies, grabbing the squirrel with its talons. The bird flew out the trees and back out over the green. Then, the squirrel dropped my ball from its mouth landing 5 inches from the cup!
And that's when you cursed aloud, the priest said assuredly.
No, no..
The Father interjected, Don't tell me you missed the f*&%ing putt!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:47
sorry i did not realize that this was not the right place to discuss stocks
but thank you for the info ...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:42
cherokee @one-more-time!!>(@one-more-time!!):
mike-- agree with your perception that aug gold
is very attractive. all indicators, including
that great dinosaur of all, supply and demand,
are screaming BUY, BUY, BUY !

silver is going to at least 510 in the short term tam bien.

how long can the likes of the boot lickin' rosen clan, keep
what has been regaled for all time, in the shadows it has been
too long! the forces of all that is, and all that will be, have
breaking points. they normally stretch to compensate for that
equal and opposite force thing-a-ma-jig. physics? hell yes!

the herd of golden cheeked, silver maned tasmanian devils that
have been wrongfully imprisoned, AND downtrodden as to their
intrinsic values, is beginning to stir. they will break-out
and run-back up that mountain, from which they were driven.

the smoke-signal-mobile is intact, and a viable vehicle
for all who have vision!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:34
Steve Puetz @ SPX Sept 825 put>(@ SPX Sept 825 put):
Panda: A December 700 put may be better than a September 825 put. Here's why. The 15-out-of-16 bear markets in the US in the past 150 years have occurred mostly in the July 1 through October 31 time period. Just in case we have another late-September or an October collapse, the December option gives you a little bit more time. And if we have a normal crash, stocks will lose about 50% of their value in about 2 months time.

Taking the current S&P at 894, 1/2 of that gives you a down-side target of 447. So percentage wise, the 700 put will give you nearly as much leverage as the 825 put. In a normal crash, you will gain 253 points on the 700 put, and you will gain 378 points on the 825 put. However, the 700 put only costs 1/3 as much as the 825 put and it gives you 3 months more time.

Finally, Wednesday ( June 18th ) may be the optimum day for putting on the trade. The two weeks following option expiration Friday tend to be the 2 poorest weeks of the month for stocks. The 10-day Arms Index looks like it will give a powerful sell signal on Wednesday. The stock market melt-up last week signals some type of reversal soon. And quarterly window dressing usually ends a week before the end of the month ( for cash settlement reasons ) . All of these combine to make the Wednesday through Friday period a good bet, and a good time frame to buy S&P put options.

Of course, you should only buy puts with money you can afford to lose. Nonetheless, with each December 700p costing only $350 and with potential in a crash of returning $25,300 or more for each option, it seems to have a good risk-to-reward ratio!!!!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:29
Byron @ A Post Before Closing:>(@ A Post Before Closing:):
This daily gold futures chart shows the Bollinger Bands closing in on one another. Something big this way cometh. But in which direction? ... ... Nite All.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:24
Mike Sheller: It was one of my favorite dishes: S.O.S. -- no other GI food was worth talking about. ALTHOUGH K-RATIONS were surpreme when you were rrrrrrrrrealy hungry. It's been a long time...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:22
I'm planning visit to a Mexican border town next week. I'm really going
to play Rico Rio's golf course. Good writeup on it at if
anyone is interested. I was wondering if anyone has any experience with
buying silver or silver items across the border?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:21
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .55 ...Good night too Puetz!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:20
Este on Astrology>(on Astrology):
If any of you desired to trade according to astrological predictions, be forewarned that you would be operating in a time frame that will take you back 2,000 years. You should be investing roughly at the time of the birth of Christ if Astrology made any sense at all!
I am going to copy a page from Constellations by Joseph Klepesta and Antonin Rukl ( Hamlyn, 1975 ) hoping that this simple astronomical explanation will put to rest the pseudo-scientific claims of Astrology.
Of all the constellations those that lie along the ecliptic, that is the zodiacal family, have been the center of interest since ancient times. This is not surprising for it is in this belt that the Sun, Moon and planets move, and it was according to the position of these bodies that ancient astrologers attempted to divine a person's future. About 2,000 years ago they divided the ecliptic into twelve equal parts of 30 Deg. each, or twelve signs, to facilitate the determination of the location of the planets. The first sign, i.e. the first twelfth part of the ecliptic, began where the ecliptic intersects the celestial equator, the point where the Sun is located on March 21st.
This marks the beginning of spring in the northern hemisphere, and this point of intersection is called the Vernal Equinox, ( vernal meaning of spring ) . It is the ‘first point of Aries' as it marks the beginning of that constellation. Both the vernal equinox and the Ram have the same sign that symbolizes the ram's horns. About 2,000 years ago the signs lay in the constellations of the same name. The celestial equator, however, slowly shifts among the stars because of the hearth's precession, and so the vernal equinox and all the signs of the zodiac slowly move along the ecliptic, completing a full cycle once every 26,000 years. At the present time the vernal equinox is in Pisces and so is the sign of Aries. Naturally all other signs are also one constellation behind, relative to the constellation of the same name. To this day, as in days of old, we say that on March 21 the Sun enters the sign of Aries, though in actual fact it is the constellation Pisces.
So, if you think that reading your Horoscope will do you any good, remember to move your sign by 30 Deg. As for myself I am amazed that very simple astronomical observations are still ignored by the very large number of Astrologers who try to make a living out of their trade.
I know that some of the amateur astrologers in this group will remind me that Sir Isaac Newton dabbled in Astrology and Metaphysics after he left his teaching job at Cambridge ( how this brilliant scientist became an irrelevant footnote is one of history great misteries; he even managed to lose a small fortune investing in Bre-x type ventures ) , but this will not change the picture at all. I hope you won't be too hard on me for this explanation otherwise I will have to start quoting Newton's Principia....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:11
Steve Puetz @ RJ's imminent collapse>(@ RJ's imminent collapse):
RJ: I anxiously await your collapse essay.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:09
nailz busy day>(busy day):
Too busy dodging tornadoes this afternoon....Will think about gold later....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:08
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzz):
Good night all, and no food fights! :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:07
panda @>(@):
Golds down a little and oil is up some. Hmmmm, is there a message in there?

POLARBEAR -- A small float cuts both ways. If some large holders want to dump, you're rotationally unchallenged! On the other hand, people who short these types of stocks have to be VERY nimble or be caught in a NASTY short squeeze. Also, if sudden demand appears for the stock, the price move can be very rapid due to the small supply of shares and don't forget the shorts! Then again, the company may decide to fund some adventure by selling some of those 'unissued' or treasury shares. In other words, it can get exciting! :- ) )
At least it's ( SWC ) not on the NASDAQ anymore! :- )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 23:02
RJ Mike S>(Mike S):

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:56
Sounds like Captain Bill issa gettin ready to take the safety off the
BUY signal gun. This guy has a great track record and when he says BUY
I intend to do just that.

Tally HO

PS- one way to protect yourself from fallin shares and a risin gold market is to own the SA shares, they have a history of rewarding their
share holders in the form of dividends. I prefer the shares that are unhedged and most of the SA are traditionally not hedged all though
I intend to have a signed proof from the company sayin just that before I
buy one share. You know how small this world is when you can pick up the phone and dial 011-27-11 then the local number and talk to someone in SA
just a clear as talkin across town. Actually their communications system
is much better than ours. When we were in Kruger park, and this is supposed to be in the outback, we had the current gold price updated
on the hour with a pocket type quote tron that my friend had and cell phone service next to none, from anywhere in the country.

Nuff said, later......

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:54
panda @>(@):
POLARBEAR -- Float is the amount of shares available for the public to trade.

Shares outstanding is the total number of shares that are out. These shares may be held in the company treasury ( treasury stock ) . They could also be unissued stock. These ( unissued stock ) have no voting rights, dividends, or Earning Per Share attached to them. Kind of like kids waiting to be born?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:53
Mike Sheller Day is Donne>(Day is Donne):
Well, good night all. I just can't take the deep evenings like I used to. Tying the old towel around my bunk for KP tomorrow. Hope to see you all out on the drill field for PT in the dawn's early. SOS for breakfast, Slim Jims for Lunch. Buy a little stock, sell a little gold. Can't get enuf of that goooood training. It don't get any better than this.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:52
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
Gold finding good support at $342 in Aussie land today. If it keeps the support tonight or morning for you yanks, we just might be on to something soon. I hope the Dow goes up another 130 points; the higher it goes the lower it falls. If that was to happen, oh no! Booo Hooo people just might go looking for a bit of golden support! LETS HOPE!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:48
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:48
Mike Sheller Lotsa Latitude>(Lotsa Latitude):
RJ: By the way, where are you? Ascensions?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:47
Captain Polarbear: Ref: P.S. If you find this confusing YES! as a matter of fact, I find this more confusing than air refueling a dozen fighters at night, who will each want more fuel than they're scheduled to
receive, and attempting to determine which of our 10 fuel tanks I'm going to draw the fuel from, while simultaneously keeping our plane's center of gravity within limits and dealing with likely gauge malfunctions, and still making sure we keep enough fuel remaining for ourselves to return back to base. --- On behalf of us older veterans who have seen service, we thank you and admire your service - which inspires us all with the security that our way of life will continue. Domo arigato gozaimasu, Compadre. Thanks old buddy - and best regards to your charming wife - you are indeed a lucky man.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:43
Mike Sheller Patent Planetary Plaint>(Patent Planetary Plaint):
RJ: Couldn't hold your tongue, could you? Actually I think you'd make a good astrologer. After all, it's really the art of thinking the next thought...only two ( or twenty ) ahead. Keep the 4's, throw away the 3's. It's a better hand. As for your end of Western Civilization scenario, I like Slim Jims too.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:43
panda @>(@):
Mooney -- You mean they let you shoot seagulls up there! They're a protected species down here! :- ) )

Regarding the SPXs, I've already had one run in with them! Oldman was right about them, it's a brokers game... Don't blink, or the that royal flush you're holding will turn in to a pair dueces. BTW, the dealer always seems to come up with a pair of threes to beat you every time. Have you ever tracked a, 'fast market' in real time? I think it's a new cyber space game ( fast market ) designed to relieve one of the pain induced by a wallet that contains too much paper. ( My doctor told me that this was the best way to 'cure' my condition, empty my wallet. ) The only thing that is known to be thicker than the aforementioned wallet is the skull of the wallets owner. :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:37
Crystal Ball Burning@Stock Market Bear Perdition>(Burning@Stock Market Bear Perdition):
POLARBEAR- ex- means the stock goes ex-dividend, which is the effective date stockholders are marked down to receive the next payable dividend. The day a stock goes ex-, its market price drops by the amount of the dividend, because those persons buying the stock after that date won't receive that particular dividend payout.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:34
APH //////////////////////////////>(//////////////////////////////):
XAU - The weakness in FSAGX refirms todays direction in the XAU, down. The target still remains under the gap at 97. Support this week is 97 - 96.50. The 97 area represents an area of low risk entry into calls and funds. Aug. Gold will trade under 340 when XAU drops.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:31
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:23
RJ The Heavens Above>(The Heavens Above):
Mike Sheller - Will the Moon be in the seventh Sun, and Jupiter lined with Mars? Will peace then guide our planet? Is this the dawning? I've been waiting for this since 1968. 'bout time....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:22
Ran across this while researching Stillwater

Shares Outstanding 20.2M

Float 12.7M

Can one of you wise souls help me out with the difference between Shares Outstanding and Float?

John Disney. thanks for keeping us up to speed on the Blyvoor, Durban, Buffels merger. I've got a few questions for you if you have the time. You stated:

Moreover, at the time of the consolidation of the

three mines ( buffels, blyvoor, and Dbn Deep ) , holders

of DbnDeep will also get half an option on the new

company striking 60 rand expiry mid 2002 I believe.

Will I as a Blyvoor shareholder receive these options, or will only the OLD DurbanDeep shareholders receive these?

Check closely with your broker - after options are

issued DD will go ex and price will come off say 3 rand.

What does ex mean? Sorry but I know very little about options.

And finally, I'm sure that if I call my broker E-Trade, they will have absolutely NO CLUE as to what I'm talking about.. ( their still working on the difference between a BID and an ASK ) I think my best bet is to send them a certified letter telling them specificially that I don't want my options sold. Is this an option? ( no pun intended : ) Thanks John.

P.S. If you find this confusing YES! as a matter of fact, I find this more confusing than air refueling a dozen fighters at night, who will each want more fuel than they're scheduled to receive, and attempting to determine which of our 10 fuel tanks I'm going to draw the fuel from, while simultaneously keeping our plane's center of gravity within limits and dealing with likely gauge malfunctions, and still making sure we keep enough fuel remaining for ourselves to return back to base.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:21
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Ted : Wish I was related to Adam!!! Free tickets to MSG!!!
Mooney: Every gold stock in todays market is a crap-shoot!! Just some better than others, if you know what I mean, Flagster!!!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:18
RJ Slowwwwwwww.......>(Slowwwwwwww.......):
Me thinks we are wider than the bandwidth this eve.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:12
RJ My 21:01>(My 21:01):
Substitute all 4s with 3s. Thanks Mooney, I've been trading too much platinum. I mean this summer.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:07
Paul @21:50 - I probably mentioned this about a week ago on Kitco 2 - ( the more proper channel to discuss gold stocks ) - that there was an excellent article in the weekend edition of the Financial Post ( June 7-9 )
on page 50. The article is detailed and lengthy so try and get a copy. Gist is that KRY does not necessarily have clear title to the claims. Therefore at this point MY opinion is that it's a crap-shoot. If they lose it court could back off to about $2.00. If they win could shoot up to $9-$12.
Ted - No Its Been TOO rainy for last few days. ( See I always have a ready excuse ) . Actually I was quite busy last week, but this weekend, ( Friday on ) , I was having BBP ( bad browser problems ) . Today, basically stayed home and fixed it and had a whole day off from real estate in Toronto, ( which, BTW, is a screaming BUY right now ) , and enjoyed catching up on my favourite pastimes, history, Kitco, gardening, shooting seagulls, you know, the ususal.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:07
Scott @theBank>(@theBank):
G'Day People!

I got some e-mail today that says gold has bottomed in Australian dollar terms. Read it for your self:

$US Gold rose overnight by $US 2.00 to $US 342.90.
This does not do much for the chart of Gold in $US
terms.  However, in $A terms, the Gold chart now
shows unmistakable technical signs of having bottomed.

To see the up to date charts of Gold in both
U.S. and Australian Dollar terms, shown side
by side for easier comparison, please visit
The Privateer's website at:

Follow the link:  SPECIAL:  Gold buy signal

The significance of this development is the fact that,
at previous major bottoms for Gold ( eg:  1985/86 and 1993 )
Gold has signalled an upturn in $A terms *before* the
signal in $US terms.  The time lag is not constant,
the precedent is.

Any comments would be gratefully received

All the best

*** P.S ***

I bought some shares in gold and there up a cent already ( .083 to .094 ) ! You yanks might like to get in early before the bottom is confirmed in $US terms!!!!!

Good Luck!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 22:05
RJ 8 latitude south, 17 longitude west.>(8 latitude south, 17 longitude west.):

Eldorado - Regarding my upcoming treatise on why the western world will not collapse. I have changed my mind completely and now see collapse as imminent. Going to fill up the Hummer with shotgun shells and Slim Jims and get while the gettin’ is good. Have enlisted the aid of a pair of neighbor twins who have agreed to be breeders and the future hope of humanity. They are nubile lasses with good childbearing hips. The new race of humans will be born in the wild like Cherokees; neither mother or child will make a sound. We will live in secrecy for the first few years, always on the watch for a dawn assault by Janet Reno, in full camouflage regalia, and her minions. We will hunt and gather by night and huddle in our underground warrens while the sun shines.

Once the societal tremors have subsided we may surface and try to make our way to a mythical promised land which may not exist, but we have spoken of countless times in our stories of a clean and green land, told to each other in the faint, D cell light of our last Evereadys in those, our bleaker days. I suspect this journey will require guerrilla encounters and hand to hand combat. The twins will be a great allies during this last desperate dash to our final home. They will have spent their days preparing for this battle and will acquit themselves proudly and our children will lay down their water skins to help with reloading, while the battle is set and the heady vapor of war, spoil, and villainy fills our nostrils.

Do not envy those of us who will survive as we will surely have occasion to curse our stubborn lot and long that others are in our stead. The odds are against us at every turn and success is little assured. Should we prove truer than the fates, we shall live out our lives eating coconuts and playing in the waves like dolphins. We will never tell our children of the western world that was. Why burden them with what is no more, the world will have moved on.......

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:53
KRY and PDG is up to the courts. You should know soon. KRY looks like it may come out on the + side. However, they is some issue regarding KRY not paying taxes ( fees or something ) on the property they claim to own ( which could weaken their position. I think the Grandich site has some of the details ( ... I think that's it ) .

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:50
Este - Good to see that Louis has some friends besides myself and those rabble-rousers who fled to the Pyrenees. I didn't mean to agree with everything that nailz posted earlier, ( especially not the 'not very intelligent' part ) , but at least the article had the victim of circumstances part correct, and, of course the part that has lead many men to their downfall, but not usually to their own beheading, that being that he permitted his wife to influence him unduly.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:50
paul morawiec>(
does anyone really know what the heck is going on with the cvg
placer dome kry fight in venizuala.
who can we believe

any idea's ?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:43
I'm hungry! I could go for a juicy steak cooked on a platinum grill and a piping hot baked potatoe wrapped in silver foil. Please refill my gold urn and pass the rhodium shaker ... Any of that apple pie left in the palladium tray. Boy ... these metals market are boring!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:41
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: What brought you out of your shell?...Is it still too hot to show real estate?...What do you think the triple post means?...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:35
JIn: thanks for the p.s. on Bankok market....Do you think my brother is getting rich there...hahahahaha...MGraves: Are you related to Adam..was wonderin where you were and will get sometin off in the AM....EBN gold down .70 ....Earl: AP is good stuff!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:34
HEY! _Everybody notice the almost simultaneous QUINTUPLE post at 21:00!?! - Must be a sign. Mike?
RJ - Are you talking about this coming fall or next spring or did you really mean your quotes to read approximately $350?
Shek - Did you by any chance read my Friday night ( I think ) post when my initial reaction to the study was the same as yours - that it was belly-laugh material?
Jin - We could break down that air-headed analysis line by line and then through all the contradictory logic ask, Who is REALLY paying this guy, or is he REALLY that dumb? One brief example of his valuable insights says it all for me, But closures would happen only if gold prices were much lower for a prolonged period, and even then closures would not be irreversible. REALLY? Closure of a Gold Mine is not irreversible? Who would'uv ever thunk it?
Bill - Thanks for giving us, as Rod Stewart said a Reason To Believe.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:19
Mike Sheller Hmmmm>(Hmmmm):
RJ: The other day I mention the Godfather analogy, & you respond. Today you use the puppy analogy and I respond. We have a 6 month old puppy ( have had him several months now ) and you have just described my home life. I agree with YOU. I am looking for a rally into the late summer, then a retracement to the dirt as well. Your numbers of 440ish is fine with me. As you may know by now, this is based on my astrological work. ( Hold your tongue for a minute ) . I see the final bottom ( not necessarily lower, but final weakness ) in gold coming in Winter of this year. Then the astrological configuration I am observing breaks up, and gold will be relieved of some inordinate pressure. I've researched this particular cyclical phenomenon back to the freakin' War of the Roses on Gold. I would like to carry my longs profitably into the ripe summer/early fall, and then sell and wait for the last dance. Best laid plans often get screwed, but silver is the key here, according to my research, and the recent activity in the WHITE metals may be a flimsy straw, true, but one nevertheless. I have until the passing of July to be wrong. It won't be the first time.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:11
Este to Nailz>(to Nailz):
I would not trust Bill Gate's Encarta to give me a profile of Louis Seize. Simon Schama in his well researched book Citizens, a Chronicle of the French Revolution ( Vintage, 1989 ) describes Louis XVI as a very intelligent man obsessed with nautical and engineering problems. He chose to live in a world of numbers rather then words. No wonder he was such a lousy politician. This guy was no dummy, he was only practicing the wrong profession!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:04
RJ Re; Below>(Re; Below):
Big Trader ( @Belief Manifesto ) : RJ talkem' in big circles, He bigger BSer than Big Trada.

I will take that as a huge compliment.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:01
RJ Not yet.....>(Not yet.....):
Mike Sheller - re: ( Do You Beeleeve ) I do, but not yet. If we get to $447 - $448 without a decisive breakout and consolidation above $450, I will sell gold back into the dirt from whence it came. Have you ever seen gold react so weakly to $110 rise in platinum, or a doubling of the price of palladium? Are the PGMs coat tails that short, or is gold nursing a ruptured Achilles tendon? Not a life threatening injury, but one that takes months of rehabilitation and more than a little therapy. I know that most here love gold. I feel the warmth and general fuzziness of this infatuation whenever I log on. Gold is like a brand new pedigreed puppy dog, the outline of the champion can be clearly seen, but it needs to grow a little. In the meantime, it will chew on your shoes, crap on the carpet, and pee in your bed. And while these things will make you angry, you will look in this dear puppy’s sad and innocent eyes, and you will forgive. The puppy it only acting according to its nature. Did you expect anything different?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:00
Mike Sheller Summer's here & the time is near>(Summer's here & the time is near):
PANDA: I've heard it mentioned that when gold goes up, stox will tank, but I think the reverse might be the case. Stox go down first, then all hell breaks loose. This concept of riots over a declining stock market is worth contemplating for un momento. A sharp correction, or even a drawn-out, kick the dog every day home from work kind of bear market might just bring patient civil Americans to a frenzied boil. I see the way they drive. Too many are new to the game and haven't been kicked around by a market before. They ain't got no respect for fluctuations, and will resent mightily getting fluct. They will turn to government, regulators, the Fed, Treasury, Bill, and Hillary for redress. They will be taken seriously, the whining babies, and attempts will be made to rescue them fro m impending impoverishment ( caused, no doubt, by nasty speculators rathere than solid investors. ( An investor is a disappointed speculator ) . THEN gold will chug mightily to lovely levels as both savvy game players and scared investors buy for similar, yet differing reasons. Huh? did I doze there for a minute? Had an interesting dream....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:00
Big Trader @Belief Manifesto >(@Belief Manifesto ):
RJ talkem' in big circles,
He bigger BSer than Big Trada.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 21:00
Mooney @Panda>(@Panda):
Panda - Don't make the same mistake that I made in 1987. YES folks I did forsee the 1987 crash and I DID put my money where my mouth was. Unfortunately my crystal ball was not perfectly shiny and I purchased a put on the S+P for almost exactly $1,000. U.S. On the Tuesday of the three day crash I could have easily cashed out for somewhere between $50,000.-$80,000. U.S. on just the ONE contract. Trouble is I bought the put near the end of July with a September expiry. Got caught up in my real estate and didn't renew my bet for the Oct. expiry. Learned a valuable lesson. Good Luck All!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:59
Shek funny stuff>(funny stuff):
funny stuff from

The Financial Times gold conference in Prague should have been named the I'm more bearish than you gold conference, as one speaker after another attempted to set a lower price target than the previous speaker. Had the conference continued for a few more hours, it is certain that someone would have guaranteed that the price of gold would go back down to $35 per troy ounce ( or lower ) . The Federal Reserve released a study that recommended that the U.S. sell its entire gold reserves, arguing that the concept of backing the currency with hard assets was obsolete. Never mind that the U.S. only has enough gold to back two cents out of every U.S. dollar, indicating an all-time low level of fear. The current
membership of the Federal Reserve, including Alan Greenspan, are adamantly opposed to selling a single ounce of gold, so the study is essentially meaningless, but it indicates the complete scorn that the respectable financial community has for hard assets in general
and precious metals in particular. The study was written by several people, one of them a student at MIT. Perhaps the Fed will include a bright high school freshman to co-author the next study.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:56
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:50
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Ted : Seagull on your doorstep!!! If anyone is wondering , David is no relation!!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:50
Mike Sheller The contrary things apply, as time goes by>(The contrary things apply, as time goes by):
JIN: Thanks - the news is great. Think about it: Merill Lynch analyst says Gold has had its day! THIS is when you want to buy an asset folks. Step right up. I'm sure this yokel is shepherding the thundering herd into more stox and mutual funds for those annual 15% returns. Any fool can see the stockmarket is the thing to buy these days. Get Real, Get Gold.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:49
panda @>(@):
JIN -- Are you looking far in to the future for the U.S.? ;- )
Riots? Over the stock market? Never would've thought of it! :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:46
panda @>(@):
TED -- Which direction do want it to be? Oh, that's right! This thing only goes up! I wonder, at what point would it be stupid to buy one SPX Sept. put at 825? Call it a, 'lottery ticket'.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:44
Mike Sheller The voice of Reason>(The voice of Reason):
RJ: There! Now what did I tell you about Bernatz?!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:43
To all,
Though not try to spoilt my morning and your evening,still,UNFORTUNATELY,READ this news from the net,
...happy trading....
p/s ted,hello.thai stock getting worsen...drop!many citizens,farmers having protest,rallies about the economic market...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:41
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: Is infinity up or down fom here?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:38
TED @grimreeper>(@grimreeper):
EBN Gold down .65....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:37
panda @?>(@?):
Well, that was a decisive answer. Down $0.65. Well I want to be the biggest and baddest of something, so if the 'experts' say gold is going down to $200/oz., I'll beat'em all! I say we're going to -$1,500/oz. There, take that gold experts at your gold conference! :o )

For another prediction, the Dow will top out at infinity. This will take place in about 4 1/2 months, give or take a day. At that time I will quit my job and retire, ... rich that is. :- ) ) Did I say I was buying puts or calls? I get so confused lately..... Up, up, or is it up? Everyone keeps on changing their minds on me. Can't find a solid opinion on the Dow/S&P direction anywhere. :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:31
Mike Sheller Some stox to buy (What did he say?)>(Some stox to buy (What did he say?)):
REIFY: There are SOME stox to buy, yes. But they must march to their own drummer now. I think your view of the steels is still valid. I did a piece on LUKENS ( LUC - NYSE ) at the Astrological Investor Look it up - I think it's still a valid call. Disregard my lousy calls. Buy the gold stox - I am no-braining it with Echo Bay and Sunshine Mining. Gold for the short to medium term, with weakness again in the fall/winter. I've got some dynamite corporate horoscopes for the next winter/spring cycle, but that will have to wait. You may want to start nibbling at EROX ( EROX ) Corp ( Nasdaq ) . VERY Speculative, but could really pay off technically ( astrologically ) . Has come down, but will have monster astrologicals a year from now. Depends on your time horizon I guess, but this one could be 300% from these levels by summer '98. Do your due diligence - also have an Astrological Investor piece on EROX I did at twice the current price. The company is into synthesized Human Pheramones applied to fragrance. Makes the women attracted to the men, & the men attracted to the women. I feel like such a whore. Stay away from mutual funds unless they're gold. That's my stock take for now, for what it's worth ( FWIW ) ( IMVHO ) .

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:30
EWP@George Cole EWP>(EWP):
George Cole: RE: your XAU comment. Some of the juniors did okay today.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:30
Roebear @Chocolateworld>(@Chocolateworld):
Bill Buckler and Mike Sheller: A word spoken in due season, how GOOD it is!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:16
Mike Sheller Do You Beeleeve>(Do You Beeleeve):
MOONEY: Clear that throat and get ready to shout that Louis 16 comment. Look at the August gold chart!!! Support at 342 has held. Price is reversing off that line. We're gonna be comin' out of that triangle on the upside, man, and at this angle of acceleration I give you $347 and we're into a RALLY! OK, tell you what! For YOU, Mooney, I'll make it 346.50! That's my best offer. Start practicing your scales.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 20:07
Bill Buckler Gold buy signal(!)>(Gold buy signal(!)):
A Gold buy signal ( ! ) Yep, there actually is one on the Australian Dollar Point and Figure Gold chart. Check out the chart at The significance of this is twofold. First, it's the first Gold buy signal I've seen in any major currency for quite some time. Second, at previous major Gold bottoms, the $A Gold price has turned up before the $US price. The time frame is not constant, the precedent is.

Bill Buckler

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 19:48
With more than $5 billion pouring into the mutual fund reservoir weekly, the Dam will burst. See June 16, 1997 “The Coming ‘RUN’ on Mutual Funds.”:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 19:43
George, as you may have noticed lately, I've been itching to shout out my Louis 16th comment which I promised I would post when I think Gold has finally bottomed, but I just can't seem to do it as it right now I am, as most, merely hoping. The chart still looks sick and could go either way. Some have mentioned that June is typically a slow time for Gold and others are saying July is often good. If rolling dice at a party I can see all the kitcoites down at the crap table at the end of the room screaming 'CUUUUMMME 'OOONNNNNN JULY!!!'
Prognosticator - Use it in good health!
Reify - With all the heavy metals in the ground around Buffalo, I can't believe that trees are something that you are still familiar with! :- )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 19:24
Richard Burke Managed Futures>(Managed Futures):
Are any of my fellow Canadians familiar with Managed Futures Certificates of Deposit which could be put into an RRSP? Nesbitt Burns and Midland Walwyn are currently offering one of these. 70% of the money invested in put into strip bonds and 30% traded. Term is 5 years. Principal is guaranteed at maturity. Last year Managed Account Reports ( MAR ) Managed Futures Index adjusted for the 70/30 split showed 15% annual gain.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 19:22
Byron - If you are on-line, e-mail me Right away and we will chat.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 18:56
Byron @ Ready At The Mark:>(@ Ready At The Mark:):
Big Trader: I am ready. I am more than ready!!!! :+ )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 18:52
George S. Cole gold and gold stocks>(gold and gold stocks):
Today's bullion action was quite good, but gold stock action was very bad. Bullion up $1.70, but XAU down 1.7% and FSAGX off nearly 1%. Such large divergences are I believe a first even for this bear market. Suggests that bullion rally reflects short-covering, not investor accumulation. Bullion probably will go into reverse and challenge the $340 level by week's end unless the gold stocks start moving north forthwith.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 18:26
David graves goldwhybuy>(goldwhybuy):
Dean Evans I have to agree with you even though I woluld like not to, but we did make a mistake gold is sucking, I agree.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 18:23
Reify @ease>(@ease):
Friends- reading you many wonderful posts daily, am again getting the feeling of some dispair mixed with the usual predictions of up and down for this or that market. We all want to be the one that picks the turn and get the back pats, but what's important is to see the tree from the forest and keep the faith.

To pass the time may I suggest you all play a game of mental masturbation. Consider yourself the head of a large mutual fund that can buy and sell any stocks. At this point in time if you had several million, or if you really want to think big--Billion dollars, to invest WHAT STOCKS, AT THESE PRICES WOULD YOU BUY?
I for one see steels, golds and othr precious metals as forming bases, and looking interesting. Oil exploration and drillers maybe? a few of the fliers that have come back to earth? What say you?

Once this mental game has been thought through, we'll feel better about the daily fluctuations, whether up or down. Now we're in a period of very low inflation, we've all heard it ad nausium, so what follows low inflation? The averages are up in the stratosphere, where will they be a year or two from now? Gold is depressed from last year's levels, where do you think it'll be in a year or two?


Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 18:03
Byron @ Sign Of The Omen:>(@ Sign Of The Omen:):
Prognosticator's NINE sell signals sounds like an omen to me := )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 17:51
prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves):
Encouraging signs for stock market bears.
1.The S&P has now given nine sell signals, including seven %R sell signals in a row. ( Nine sell signals are no more valid than one sell signal, and do not indicate the extent of the down move. )
2. Today's market action was a very small range, indicating a possible loss of upward momentum.
3. Today's market action, with the open and close in almost the center of the range, is a reversal signal. After the past several days, the only reversal is down.
4. The intraday chart pattern is very encouraging. For the first time, the five wave impulse is down, and the three wave correction is up.

Using some very short term cycles, it is likely, ( I hope ) that tomorrow will be down. The rising wedge pattern throw-over lasted much longer than anticipated, but that may be because of the near buying panic of last Thursday and Friday. Elliott Wave theory indicates that a rapid decline follows a throw-over.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 17:41
dean evans>(
hold gold shares is like selling air conditioners in Alaska. face it
was a big mistake.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 17:13
Strad Master Egg on my face!>(Egg on my face!):
GVC & L STEVE: I'm certainly not superstitious and I don't want to put the kibosh on your plans, but several months ago when things were really going our way there was some similar talk about a big party. ( I was one of the enthusiastic planners! ) Mme. Auroelf correctly pointed out that it was too soon for that sort of talk as it might serve to jinx the move. Well, sure enough, counting the chickens before they hatched only resulted in a lot of broken eggs! I would love a party as much as anyone, but there is plenty of time to discuss that once we're closer to break-even.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 16:49
nailz - You got my drift!
Spud Meister - I said it months ago, I said it about two weeks ago, and I hope that by agreeing with you today, some of the others will take a look at the past BT posts and start giving them the treatment they deserve. They didn't invent waste paper baskets for nothin' you know!
Bernatz - I KNEW we'd bring you out of the woodwork by speaking of your beloved Louis! After all, its well-known, 'ow zorrofall ze Francch peepill arre foreevarr loosinn' za fine fellooww! An' off coarse ze Golden Louis D'Or's zat dat dam Franklin swindled fromm za fine fat fellooww!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 16:23
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
CPI tomorrow.......HI JIN!...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 16:19
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: The gun is loaded....and so am I...JUST KIDDIN!...I only do that stuff on Saturdays....XAU ended down 1.69 and Long Bond ended up 14 ticks with yield @ 6.69%...Dow down 9.95 so only 7,522 more until we hit Dow 250....Now they ( CNBC ) say Comex Gold up 2.0 ....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 16:13
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
John Disney, Many thanks again for your once again excellent explanations on BLYDY/DROOY. Think I'll empty out the frizzen and ease forward the hammer till I talk to me broker. If he has any info will post.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:59
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Comex Gold up 1.70; Silver up 1.2 cents; Platinum down 2.40; Palladium down 12.60 and XAU down 1.73....Long Bond up 15 ticks with yield at 6.68%

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:43
Opinion-Technically Dow,SP=Bullish Gold = Colorless to slightly bullish XAU = Detached to slightly bearish.Dollar Poker-faced going bearish.It's sure a waiting game .

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:38
LSteve @party>(@party):
Capitol idea. I'll be there if I make as much as I'm conservatively dreaming of making. We could even begin the nominating process to determine which city we'll have the party in. I nominate either Chicago or New Orleans. We can have fun with this one.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:35
George S. Cole gold bullion and gold stocks>(gold bullion and gold stocks):
D.A.. Bullion's strong rise today in the face of all the bearishness is very encouraging indeed! But the gold stocks' inability to rise together with bullion is discouraging. Once bullion and the stocks can move together and keep their gains, then the bear will be history. Getting close, but no cigar yet.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:33
Maybe just maybe BT and SimpleMan really did know somethin!

John D.- you must be hooked up all nite. Thanks for your input!!
PS-you must have had a goood answer to your ad?

Tally HO

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:31
GVC @party time?>(@party time?):
BART,D.A. ,et all: Mabey after the metals have their big run up this year or next, and we're all a little wealthier, mabey we could celebrate by arranging some sort of Kitco convention like gathering or just a big party somewhere. We can all wear our 'handle' nametags ( or multiple tags ) . I mean, we gold bulls are all kind of in the same boat here, so to speak, like family in a way.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:21
GVC @Spud Master>(@Spud Master):
Spud Master: BT said next two weeks will tell the tale. That's not vague at all in my book. So...we shall soon see one way or the other.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:21
D.A. cross.posting.time.warp>(cross.posting.time.warp):
George S Cole:

Glad to see your still ticking!!!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:19
D.A.(sprouting little glittering appendages) languish?>(languish?):

Last I looked, gold was up about $1.70 spot. At this rate of langishing, in less than two months time we will be well north of $400. Cheer up, read some of your own jokes, they're generally quite funny.

Is this another example of the crushed spirit at Kitco?

George S. Cole: What ever happened to the 'bull market will begin when the market ignores bad news' line? I would call the Fed study encouraging complete liquidation of CB gold stocks about as bearish a piece of news as you are likely to see, and voila, gold is UP.

Cheer up lads, its coming our way.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:13
Bernatz de ventadorm le fou@poor louis>(le fou@poor louis):
For messiours nailz and mooney
Monsiour nailz last posties was parfait. Zee victeen of zee
circumstances by gar. Zee poor meesunderstood fellow - not zee
bad guy at all. And a victeem of zee reef raff. EEt make mee weepie.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:12
George S. Cole Big Trader>(Big Trader):
Tort: August gold up $1.60 today despite all the bearish talk. Very encouraging! Now if only the gold stocks would follow suit.

Spud: Big Trader, in his latest post, was quite specific about fireworks breaking out within 2 weeks. We will soon know if he is on target. After today's surprisingly strong showing by bullion, he just might be.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:04
Bernatz de ventadorm le_fou@uses_indicators>(le_fou@uses_indicators):
For all zee analysts.
Ah have seen zee future wiz zee wizards of zee
pyranees who use zee alchemist wave zeorey ( AW ) . Zey
see zee lovely gold go to between 400 and 480 of zee
dolair par onze pretty zoon by gar. Zeze guys zey don
make zee miztake except a few times maybe.
Zey say ees simple a-b-c pattern ( maybe simple for zem
by dam ) - wiz zee a at zee peak in 1996, zee b at
zee last low and zee c ( to come ) between 425 and 485.
Zee timing zat ees a leettle difficile.
Zey say zey try zee Cathar cadalabra plot and zey
get nowhere fast. Zey try zee King Charles zee Bald
indicator and eet ees a beeg you know what. So zey
do not know zee Louis XVI indicator because we leave
France pretty fast in zoze days for zee Spanish side
of zee slopes. Ah was pretty close to Eleanor of
Aquitaine in zee past and zat Robespierre jerko - he
don geeve nobody a break-what a memory he had.
So zey working wiz zee earlier Charlemagne and
Roland indicator. Ziz software was written in Basque
machine language and zey say zey cannot find zee Basque
machine. So zey are go a leetle crazy and zee timing she
ees anybodys quess. Ah hope ziz ees helpful.
But Louis he did NOT dispise hees fellow man and
he used to wear zee leetle revolution cap - zair were
drawings and paintings of heem een eet trying to make
frens wiz zee reef raff - but zat robespierre - wooo -
what a jerko.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 15:02
nailz TIME TO DUCK !!!!!>(TIME TO DUCK !!!!!):
ALL....OK guys time for me to duck....Tornadoes about 2 miles from here !!!!!!!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:46
Spud Master Bermuda Triangle>(Bermuda Triangle):
Big Trader's recent post WARNING!!!! Beware, Gold like dagger now!
is a pun on a radio transmission by an Asian ship crew lost in the Bermuda Triangle some years ago - their last radio transmission was Danger like dagger now. FWI, I still believe Big Trader is a hoax. His posts are worded so vaugely & badly that almost anything can be read into them. Let Big Trader speak straightforwardly, rather than hiding behind obscure English. It's pretty obvious that he/she/it can speak the King's English.


Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:42
Tortfeasor Bonus joke>(Bonus joke):
Yep, gold and silver continue to languish as the clock ticks on the old call options. Whether it goes up in June or July I hope that the metal prices go up one of these days in the near future. For anyone who give a darn about my current woes with my commodities broker, I faxed a rather sharp letter, relying on the wisdom of WW, to the president of the company this morning threatening to file a complaint with the CFTC in Washington, DC and with the NFA in Chicago. The letter was faxed but I have received no response. I guess as a last resort I am going to turn them over to Ted. I've been willing to hold the dogs off and give them a chance to make it right with me but I am going to give them only about two days before I let the dogs loose. Now for that little joke I promised.

There was a group of friars who were behind on their belfry payments,
so they opened up a small florist shop to raise the funds. Since
everyone liked to buy flowers from the men in the really cute robes,
the rival florist across town thought the competition was unfair. He
asked the good fathers to close down, but they would not. He went
back and begged the friars to close. They ignored him. He asked his
mother to go and ask the friars to get out of business. They ignored
her too. So, the rival florist hired Hugh MacTaggart, the roughest
and most vicious thug in town, to persuade them to close. Hugh beat
up the friars and trashed their store, saying he'd be back if they
didn't close shop. Terrified, they did so - thereby proving that
Hugh, and only Hugh, can prevent florist friars.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:27
MOONEY.....Here is a brief statement as to how historians view Louis XVI..
...................Another part of the article says he tried to institute other reform, but met with great resistence from the poor....

Historians consider Louis XVI a victim of circumstances rather than a despot similar to the former French kings Louis XIV and Louis XV. He was weak and incapable as king and not overly intelligent. He preferred to spend his time at hobbies, such as hunting and making locks, rather than at his duties of state, and he permitted his wife to influence him unduly.

Louis XVI, Microsoft ( R ) Encarta ( R ) 96 Encyclopedia. ( c ) 1993-1995 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. ( c ) Funk & Wagnalls Corporation. All rights reserved.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:24
Mooney @History's .Golden.Thread>(@History's .Golden.Thread):
Remembering the fact that Louis 16th was an Absolute Monarch then, IF Louis despised ALL commoners why would he on Feb.6 1778 sign a treaty with the U.S.? This treaty between the King of France and the U.S. brought the benefits of economic ( Gold ) and military assistance, which the U.S. ( basically a band of rebellious commoners fighting for indepedance from THEIR monarch ) badly needed at the time. I know, I know, it was not because he loved commoners, but because he wanted to upset England's power in the world. His support for the revolutionary commoners of America actually raised the revolutionary spirit in his own land and so by signing the Treaty, thus depleting his own treasury to aid the commoners in North America, Louis actually signed his own death warrant. I tend to doubt though that Louis actually DESPISED his own people, the ruling over of which was his very raison d'etre. He may have come to dislike their misguided ways, however, as the moment of his beheading drew ever nearer.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:14
John Disney>(
for the Roebear
Something bothers me. I assume you understand that
blyvoor and DbnDeep should trade in tanden as 5 RSA Blyvoor
( An adr is 3 RSA blyvoor ) will become 1 durban deep.
Moreover, at the time of the consolidation of the
three mines ( buffels, blyvoor, and Dbn Deep ) , holders
of DbnDeep will also get half an option on the new
company striking 60 rand expiry mid 2002 I believe.
( I would value the option at say 6 rand ) .
Few people understand this operation. My local
broker does not understand it and he lives in Joburg.
On a DD ADR you SHOULD be entitled to half of one
of these options. BUT I FEAR THAT the banks that issue
the ADRs ( Citibank, Morgan G ) have little tricky ways
of diddling one. I believe they will SELL the options
ON YOUR BEHALF and give you the money instead of the
option. Sounds fine right. BUTTTTT - the way they sell
the options is not on the market over a period of time.
They will probably AUCTION them. I dont know who can
attend one of these auctions but I will bet these option
will go at less then 10 per cent of their true market
This happened to me once when I owned loraine ADRs. I
had a stack and I received a zillion Target warrents.
They were auctioned for a few pennies. In two months
they were 5 rand - cost me in the of 100,000 US. You
remember those things.
Check closely with your broker - after options are
issued DD will go ex and price will come off say 3 rand.
If you find this confusing then join the club. Life
wasnt meant to be easy

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 14:02
MOONEY..... OK .... Let me see what documentation I can dig up. My rememberance is that he despised all commoners, not just his French countrymen.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 13:47
Mooney @nailz>(@nailz):
D )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 13:29
nailz Question for Mooney ?>(Question for Mooney ?):
MOONEY.....Which part of the description do you believe was fabricated a ) Lost his head in the French Revolution ....b ) King of France......c ) Glutton....d ) Despised his common countrymen. It is interesting to me to see which you doubt, as I think all those can be well documented. I realize that many stories were contrived to justify the French Revolution, but I believe all those descriptors are accurate. Tell me where I am wrong. I need a little reading on the French Revolution anyway.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:55
RT @our future>(@our future):
WOW, the future history of the free world should be decided this week, huh? all meeting within a weeks time : EU leaders ( 6/16-17 ) , G7+1 ( 6/20 ) , and now the bilderbergers ( 6/12-15 )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:50
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:43
Ron Quote Fest>(Quote Fest):
The basis of optimism is sheer terror.
Oscar Wilde ( 1854-1900 ) ( Maybe the Dow will go to 10,000, afterall )

Civilization is a limitless multiplication of unnecessary necessities.
Mark Twain ( 1835-1910 )

Having a family is like having a bowling alley installed in your brain.
Martin Mull

Hollywood is a place where people from Iowa mistake each other for movie stars.
Fred Allen ( 1894-1956 )

Once, during Prohibition, I was forced to live for days
on nothing but food and water.
W.C. Fields ( 1880-1946 )

If you speak the truth, have a foot in the stirrup.
-Turkish proverb

Every government is run by liars and nothing they say should be believed.
I.F. Stone

A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
H.L. Mencken ( 1880-1956 )

Grub first, then ethics.
Bertolt Brecht ( 1898-1956 )

I love children, especially when they cry, for then someone takes them away.
Nancy Mitford

Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality the cost becomes prohibitive.
William F. Buckley, Jr.

Happiness is seeing your mother-in-law's picture on the back of a milk carton.

Sex education classes in our public schools are promoting incest.
-Jimmy Swaggart

Maybe this world is another planet's hell.
Aldous Huxley ( 1894-1963 )

A jury consists of twelve persons chosen to decide who has the better lawyer.
Robert Frost ( 1874-1963 )

The lion and calf shall lie down together, but the calf won't get much sleep.

Whosoever shall not fall by the sword or by famine, shall fall by pestilence,
so why bother shaving?

All progress is based upon a universal innate desire on
the part of every organism to live beyond its income.
Samuel Butler ( 1835-1902 ) _Note Books_

Cabbage, n.: A familiar kitchen-garden vegetable about as large and wise as
a man's head.
Ambrose Bierce ( 1842-1914? ) The Devil's Dictionary

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:32
Not quite as good but also pertinant,
Very few things happen at the right time, and the rest do not happen at all; the conscientious historian will correct these defects. -- Herodotus

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:30
nailz - BTW - No disrespect intended towards yourself. Let me clarify by quoting Jean De La Bruyere ( 1645-1696 ) ,
The exact contrary of what is generally believed is often the truth.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:28
Lurker 007 @earth>(@earth):
Hi everybody!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:19
Bilderbergers @in.secret>(@in.secret):
The Bilderbergers meet again....Why don't these guys allow any media
coverage? Look at who turns up!! See list below... Want to bet these
super rich don't direct the gold price? just a weeny bit!!!!

The worlds elite meet once again to plan the future of mankind. This is a group of power hungry people who believe the world is overpopulated and that people will have to be eliminated in order that they might improve their living conditions. Of course, they get to decide who is eliminated and how they are eliminated. It is interesting to note who will be
attending the meeting. A list is provided below. As usual, Rockefeller and Kissinger, two of the biggest power brokers in the push for the New World Order, are in attendance.

Bilderberg Meeting of 1997 Assembles...


The 45th Bilderberg Meeting will be held near Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A. June 12- 15, 1997 to discuss the Atlantic Relationship in a Time of Change. Among others the Conference will discuss NATO, China, Islam, EMU, Energy, Growth, Corporate Governance.

Approximately 120 participants from North America and Europe will attend the discussions. The meeting is private in order to encourage frank and
open discussion.

Bilderberg takes its name from the Hotel where the first meeting took place in May 1954. That meeting grew out of the concern on both sides of the Atlantic that the industrialized democracies in Europe and North America were not working together as closely as they should on matters of
critical importance. It was felt that regular, off-the-record discussions
would contribute to a better understanding of the complex forces and major trends affecting Western nations.

What is unique about Bilderberg as a forum is ( 1 ) the broad cross
-section of leading citizens, in and out of government, that are assembled for nearly three days of purely informal discussion about topics of current concern especially in the fields of foreign affairs and the international economy, ( 2 ) the strong feeling among participants that in view of the differing attitudes and experiences of their nations, there is a continuous, clear need to develop an understanding in which these concerns can be accommodated, and ( 3 ) the privacy of the meetings, which have no purpose other than to allow participants to speak their minds openly and freely.

At the meetings, no resolutions are proposed, no votes taken, and no policy statements issued. In short, Bilderberg is a flexible and
informal international leadership-forum in which different viewpoints can be expressed and mutual understanding enhanced.

To ensure full discussion, individuals representing a wide range
of political and economic points of view are invited. Two-thirds of
the participants come from Europe and the remainder from the United States and Canada. Within this framework, on average about one-third are from the government sector and the remaining two-thirds from a variety of
fields including finance, industry, labour, education and the media.
Participants are solely invited for their knowledge, experience and standing and with reference to the topics on the agenda.

All participants attend Bilderberg in a private and not in an
official capacity.

Participants have agreed not to give interviews to the press during
the meeting. In contacts with the news media after the conference it is
an established rule that no attribution should be made to individual
participants of what was discussed during the meeting.

There will be no press conference. A list of participants is appended.
PineIsle Resort near Atlanta, U.S.A.
June 12-15, 1997

STATUS 12 June 1997

GB Carrington, Peter Former Chairman of the Board, Christies
International plc; Former Secretary
General, NATO

Honorary Secretary General
NL Halberstadt, Victor Professor of Public Economics, Leiden University

I Agnelli, Giovanni Honorary Chairman, Fiat S.p.A.
I Agnelli, Umberto Chairman, IFIL S.p.A.
USA Allaire, Paul A. Chairman, Xerox Corporation
DK Andersen, Bodil Nyboe Governor, Central Bank of Denmark
USA Armacost, Michael H. President, The Brookings Institution
P Balsemao, Francisco Pinto Professor of Communication Science,

University, Lisbon; Chairman, IMPRESA,
S.G.P.S.; Former Prime Minister
S Barnevik Percy Chairman, ABB Asea Brown Boveri Ltd.
USA Bartley, Robert L. Editor, Wall Street Journal
CDN Bassett, Isabel Parliamentary Assistant to the

of Finance, Government of Ontario
USA Bentsen, Lloyd M. Former Secretary of the Treasury;
Partner, Verner Liipfert Bernhard
McPherson and Hand, Chartered
USA Berger, Samuel R. Assistant to the President for

Security Affairs
NL Bergh, Maarten A. van den Group Managing Director, Royal
Dutch/Shell Group of Companies
USA Bergsten, C. Fred Director, Institute for International
USA Bernstein Richard Book Critic, New York Times
NL Beugel, Ernst H. van der Emeritus Professor of International Relations, Leiden University; Former
Honorary Secretary General of

Meetings for Europe and Canada
TR Beyazit, Selahattin Director of Companies
INT Bildt, Carl The High Representative
TR Bilgin, Dinc Chairman of the Board, Sabah

CDN Black, Conrad M. Chairman, The Telegraph plc
H Bokros, Lajos Senior Adviser, The World Bank
P Borges, Antonio Dean, INSEAD
GB Browne, E. John P. Group Chief Executive, The British
Petroleum Company p.l.c.
USA Bryan, John H. Chairman and CEO, Sara Lee Corporation
GB Buchanan, Robin W.T. Senior Partner, Bain & Company
D Burda, Hubert Chairman, Burda Media
CH Butler, Hugo Editor in Chief, Neue Zurcher Zeitung
GR Carras, Costa Director of Companies
D Cartellieri, Ulrich Member of the Supervisory Board,
Deutsche Bank AG
E Carvajal Urquijo, Jaime Chairman and General Manager,
F Collomb, Bertrand Chairman and CEO, Lafarge
USA Corzine, Jon S. Chairman and CEO, Goldman Sachs & Co.
CH Cotti, Flavio Federal Councillor and Minister for
Foreign Affairs
GB Cranborne, Robert M.J.C. Leader of the Opposition in the House

USA Dam, Kenneth W. Max Pam Professor of American and
Foreign Law, The University of
Chicago Law School
GR David, George A. Chairman of the Board, Hellenic

Company S.A.
B Davignon, Etienne Executive Chairman, Societe Generale

Belgique; Former Vice Chairman of the
Commission of the European Communities
B Donnea, Francois X. de Former Minister of Defense; Mayor of
Brussels; Member of Parliament
DK Ellemann-Jensen, Uffe Chairman, Liberal Party
TR Ercel, Gazi Governor, Central Bank of Turkey
TR Erguder, Ustun Rector, Bosporus University
CDN Frum, David Political Commentator
USA Gadiesh, Orit Chairman of the Board, Bain & Company
P Galvao Teles, Jose M. Lawyer, Member of the Social Party,
Member of the Council of State
F Gergorin, Jean-Louis Member of the Board of Directors,

to the Chairman Strategic

Matra Hachette
USA Gerstner, Jr., Louis V. Chairman, IBM Corporation
USA Hamilton, Lee H. Congressman ( D, Indiana )
N Hoegh, Westye Chairman of the Board, Leif Hoegh &

ASA; Former President, Norwegian
Shipowners' Association
USA Holbrooke, Richard C. Former Assistant Secretary for

Affairs, Vice chairman, CS First

GB Hutton, Will Editor, The Observer
B Huyghebaert, Jan Chairman, Almanij-Kredietbank Groep
FIN Iloniemi, Jaakko Managing Director, Centre for Finnish
Business and Policy Studies; Former
Ambassador to the United States of
D Issing, H.C. Otmar Member of the Board, Deutsche

GB Jacobi, Mary Jo Head of Group Public Affairs, HSBC
Holdings plc; Former US Assistant
Secretary of Commerce
INT Johnston, Donald J. Secretary-General, OECD
USA Jordan, Jr., Vernon E. Senior Partner, Akin, Gump, Strauss,
Hauer & Feld, LLP ( Attorneys-at-Law )
USA Kissinger, Henry A. Former Secretary of State; Chairman,
Kissinger Associates, Inc.
NL Korteweg, Pieter President and CEO, Robeco Group
A Kothbauer, Max Director of Companies
GR Kiranidiotis, Yannos Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs
F Levy-Lang, Andre Chairman of the Board of Management,
Banque Paribas
USA Lewis, William W. Director of McKinsey Global Institute,
McKinsey & Company
GB Mabro, Robert E. Director, Oxford Institute for Energy
USA McDonough, William J. President, Federal Reserve Bank of
New York
A Mitterbauer, Peter Chairman, Miba AG
F Montbrial, Thierry de Director, French Institute of
International Relations; Professor of
Economics, Ecole Polytechnique
CDN Munroe- Blum, Heather Vice-President, Research and
International Relations, University of
N Myklebust, Egil Chief Executive, Norsk Hydro
D Nass, Matthias Managing Editor, Die Zeit
NL Netherlands, Her Majesty the Queen of the
FIN Niinisto, Sauli V. Minister of Finance
USA Nunn, Sam Former Senator ( D, Georgia )
ICE Oddsson, David Prime Minister
PL Olechowski, Andrzej Chairman, Central Europe Trust, Poland
FIN Ollila, Jorma President and CEO, Nokia Corporation
USA Page, Jr. , John M. Chief Economist, Middle East and

Africa Region, The World Bank
USA Powell, Colin L. Former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
CH Pury, David de Chairman, de Pury Pictet Turrettini &
Co. Ltd.
IRL Quinn, Lochlann Chairman, Allied Irish Bank Group
GB Robertson, Simon Former Chairman, Kleinwort Benson
Group plc
USA Rockefeller, David Chairman, Chase Manhattan Bank
International Advisory Committee
USA Rockefeller, Sharon Percy President and CEO, WETA-TV and FM

E Rodriguez Inciarte, Matias Vice Chairman, Banco de Santander
GB Rell, Eric Senior Adviser, SBC Warburg
I Rossella, Carlo Editor, Editrice La Stampa S.p.A.
F Roy, Olivier University Professor and Researcher,
Laboratoire Monde Iranien, CNRS
CDN Sabia, Maureen Corporate Director and President,
Maureen Sabia International
P Salgado, Ricardo
Espirito Santo President and CEO, Banco Espirito

D Schrempp, Jurgen E. Chairman of the Board of Management,
Daimler-Benz AG
INT Schwab, Klaus President, World Economic Forum
DK Seidenfaden, Toger Editor in Chief, Politiken A/S
USA Sheinkman, Jack Chairman of the Board, Amalgamated

I Silvestri, Stefano Vice President, Istituto Affari
Internazionali; former Undersecretary

USA Stahl, Lesley R. National Affairs Correspondent, CBS

USA Stephanopoulos, George Visiting Professor, Columbia

Former Senior Advisor to the President
for Policy and Strategy
H Suryanyi, Gyorgy President, National Bank of Hungary
IRL Sutherland, Peter D. Chairman and Managing Director,

Sachs International; Former Director
General, GATT and WTO
S Svedberg, Bjorn President and CEO, Skandinaviska
Enskilda Banken
TR Tara, Sinan Vice President, Enka Construction &
Ind. Inc.
GB Taylor, J. Martin Chief Executive, Barclays PLC
GB Villeneuve, Andre-Francois H.Executive Director, Reuters Group
Holdings plc
USA Vogel, Ezra F. Henry Ford II Professor of Social
Sciences, Harvard University
USA Volcker, Paul A. Chairman, BT Wolfensohn
A Vranitzky, Franz Former Federal Chancellor
INT Vries, Gijs M. de Chairman, Liberal Group, European
S Wallenberg, Marcus Executive Vice President, Investor AB
USA Weiss, Stanley A. Chairman, Business Executives for
National Security, Inc
USA Whitehead, John C. Former Deputy Secretary of State
INT Wolfensohn, James D. President, The World Bank
D Wolff von Amerongen, Otto Chairman and CEO of Otto Wolff GmbH
USA Wolfowitz, Paul Dean, Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies; Former Under
Secretary of Defense for Policy
NL Wijffels, Herman H.F. Chairman of the Executive Board,
Rabobank Nederland
GB Yahuda, Michael B. Professor of International Relations,
London School of Economics
USA Yost, Casimir A. Director, Institute for the Study of
Diplomacy, School of Foreign Service,
Georgetown University, Washington

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:17
George s. Cole BT>(BT):
I think BT is saying that bullion will surge soon, and this surge will be a dagger in the heart of the paper bull.

Bullion doing well today despite all the publicity the bears are getting, but the gold stocks remain weak. Perhaps bullion will lead the next upside move, but I have my doubts.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:13
Mooney @nailz>(@nailz):
nailz - I see that you have read the accepted version of history as censored by the revisionists for the consumption of the masses.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:13
panda @>(@):
Yen up, Dollar down, 113.44 Yen/Dollar. Gold up? Can't be.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:08
Confucious say man who sit on gold like dagger soon standing again.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 12:05
Ron Think EMU>(Think EMU):
It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage, than the creation of a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institutions and merely lukewarm defenders in those who would gain by the new ones.

-- Machiavelli

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:48
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:41
MOONEY....Louis XVI...King of France...Lost his head in the French revolution....A gluttonous monarch who despised his common countrymen....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:38
tarnished Dunked and Drowning in Dinghy>(Dunked and Drowning in Dinghy):
TED: HI ya Bro...I'm BEAT! Anything going on worth staying up for?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:30
Duncan Gold like Dagger Now >( Gold like Dagger Now ):
I wonder what Big Trader implies by his 10:27 remark - going up or down?

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:10
Roebear @Chocolateworld>(@Chocolateworld):
Some positive tidbits on CB sales here:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 11:08
2 small towns in northern Mn....First one is named Orgasm... Other one is Horny. Woman from Horny gets killed in auto accident in Orgasm. Newspaper headlines read HORNY WOMAN DIES IN ORGASM .....I saw the newspaper in a restaurant in a small town in northern Mn.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:45
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie):
Here's an interesting chart on CBOE Put/Call Ratio

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:30
Gotca owinings@millsmd>(owinings@millsmd):
Hey folks,

Big Trader = Lou Rukyheiser

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:27
Big Trader closer.than@youthink>(closer.than@youthink):
WARNING!!!! Beware, Gold like dagger now!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:27
Big Tader closer.than@youthink>(closer.than@youthink):
WARNING!!!! Beware, Gold like dagger now!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:21
Mooney @Test!>(@Test!):
Anybody out there ever hear about Louis 16th besides myself and MADOG? This question is especially pertinant to Americans and ( I suppose ) French people such as Bernatz and his cousins.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:19
vronsky RJ Platinum Factor>(RJ Platinum Factor):
Regular Kitco contributor, RJ, discovered an uncanny correlation between the Yen and the Yen value of Platinum. It appears to demonstrate predictive qualities. See charts in Analysis section:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:18
Richard Burke Gone Fishing>(Gone Fishing):
Ted: Just getting second coat on teak today. Spring salmon running off Vancouver Island. Like summer here! Fishing for gold stocks on hold as downturn expected Too bad can't use puts/calls/shorts in RRSP.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 09:46
OH NO, my computer has apparently been infected with the wicked METAL VIRUS--my browser is showing all three metals up this morning.

JIN, thanks for the links.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 09:42
REB mono.lingual>(mono.lingual):
RJ: Please be mindful that virtually all discussion here is in a language foreign to the location from which this web-site originates. Monsiour De Ventadorm must be shown the utmost respect or he may revert to posting in his native language, which some of us may not understand.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 09:40
Duncan TO: John Disney>(TO: John Disney):
John - thanks a lot for your information about Joel & etc - much appreciated! I would be happy to pay for advice like this - think
about this source of revenue.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 09:25
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 09:09
found this site..quite up to date and handful infos ...IF ..YOU KNOW CHINESE LANGUAGE...WITH taiwan news,financial market, fund news etc...
and even with the chat forum..
enjoy reading.....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 08:31
Just read this very interesting article,
happy trading...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 08:28
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down a nickle and Silver up a cent...Will be leaving fer the USA at end of week and much to do...time to stain the deck and then back to the woods...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 08:26
panda @>(@):
Ok, tell me something that I don't know. Seems like it might be show time. BT?

News on Tiger Fund, Fed report, ......

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 08:24
TED @morninmike>(@morninmike):
Mike Sheller: There you go again...caviar...yeck!...Vodka: I'll drink to that!...Beautiful day on the ocean and we're actually goin to get into the 70's today...Long Bond up FIVE ticks...S+P futures up 1.50...

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 08:07
Mike Sheller Let the Games begin!>(Let the Games begin!):
TED: Thanks for the morning update. I don't even have to put on Bloomberg News anymore over coffee. I go straight to Kitco. God, what's happening to me? Got some bad Sevruga caviar the other day ( was Father's Day gift from wife...? ) What's this civilization coming to when they can't even keep the good stuff fresh! The vodka was good tho. Ketel One from Holland - very nice. Rarely drink the Russian stuff after Chernobyl ( Wormwood ) . ALL: Let's watch the Long Bond today, gang. Remember, if it breaks above 113 we will have to genuflect before the blowoff that will unfold. If 113 stops it cold, then prepare to go short, get ready for tanking paper, and don't stand under the NYSE balcony. Re GOLD: If price can hold around 342 basis August, we're going up. Past 348 August takes us out of the short-term triangle and into full rally mode. Avanti! Great Day All, it's perfectly lovely in New York. Cool enuf to see your breath this dawn.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 07:50
TED @johndisney>(@johndisney):
John Disney ( 00:39 ) Great post, and agreed with everything you said until you started dissin Iron Mike....Maybe I'm living in the past but I think Tyson will win this one....Saw him slaughter Michael Spinks in Atlantic City and will never forget how awesome he was.........

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 07:41
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down .30 and Silver up 1 cent despite weak Dollar...Mornin Tort!
Re-7:09 joke: Lived for a year in Atlanta in me youth and have a similar story to tell ya...hahaha....Germany+ France at loggerheads over EMU....
Who would have ever thunk that would happen!...Asian markets ( with all that AP ) were strong with Hang Seng up 282 ( 2.0% ) and Nikkei up 152 ( .74% ) ....

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 07:09
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
Metal markets look dull to boring with chance of intermediate irritation.

Here's something one can get a bit out of:

A fellow from Boston was in Atlanta, GA, visiting family. One
day he decided to take a walk around the area where his
relatives lived to enjoy their fine, comfortable Southern way
of life - something he was not accustomed to, being from

While he was walking he happened upon a pit bull attacking
a small child. His instincts took over, and he ran to the child's
aid. He grabbed the dog, pulled him from the child, and
choked the dog until he was dead.

As the dead animal lay at his feet, a man came running
over from the other side of the street. He announced that he
was the star reporter for the Atlanta newspaper, and he
would make the rescuer famous.


the headlines would proclaim.

The would-be savior explained that it was very nice, but he
was from Boston - not Atlanta. The next day the headlines of
the Atlanta paper read:


Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 06:42
Mike Sheller Hey RJ>(Hey RJ):
RJ: You'll find over time that Bernatz, when accorded the meditation and concentration his words and phraseology deserve, makes the most sense of anyone at Kitco. Wait til' you get into it with Cherokee.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 06:42
George S. Cole misc.>(misc.):
August gold up 40 cents, probably reflecting some pressure on the dollar this morning. Interesting that the market seems to be ignoring Fed report advocating massive gold sales.

WW: The gold market indeed is being blatantly manipulated. And a $5 pop in bullion could indeed send stocks down big time. Conversely, a sharp drop in the market could send bullion up a lot. Chicken and egg problem.

SIMPLEMAN: I have been arguing for some time that U.S. stock market would make a SECULAR TOP this summer and gold a SECULAR BOTTOM. Glad that you and big trader support the second projection anyway.

Let me end this post with a quote from the latest issue of The Privateer.
We still have no technical evidence of a gold bottom in U.S. dollar terms, but we have plenty of evidence that the whole financial situation is accelerating towards some kind of a climax.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 06:40
Mike Sheller @coffee>(@coffee):
RJ - That's a lot to throw at someone just getting up on the East coast ( all them beliefs ) . Ok, Ok, put that one in the Best of Kitco ( available in paperback, leather bound, and on CD Rom ) . Re CHINA: WW, kuston: Shanghai is the financial heart of the PRC. It will absorb what power has been cultivated in Hong Kong over time. The Chinese have every intention of Shanghai being THE money market of the country. Best investment over there is Shanghai suburbs RE ( yes, I know all about the pitfalls, but there are some strange deals to be made if you know citizens you can trust ) .

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 06:30
Bernatz de ventadorm Le fou@strikes back>(Le fou@strikes back):
Dear Monsiour RJ
Eef you arre unable to unnerstand what ees clarely zee parfait
eengleesh mah fren zen ah have only zee pitie for vous by dam.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 05:02
Aurc Good HUH.......?>(Good HUH.......?):
Auric - your faith is inspiring. July it is! Maybe lasting through August, but very good indeed.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:50
RJ There is no comparison>(There is no comparison):
For all who live in the past. Quoting statistics from 1929, or 1934, or any friggin’' period pre, during, or post war...... Give it up! We are in a new world now, the rule have changed and you wouldn't recognize the participants. There won't be many more opportunities to step of this bus. When the last cones, you must. Those that miss this final jump will feel among them ominous unsightful beings which more frightening than their most horrid nightmares. Beware and go well foe many still return almost normal. The some that do not, will give us all a sense of pause. Goody.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:41
Auric @Easily swayed>(@Easily swayed):

I believe July will be a good month for gold. ( Hi
RJ )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:24
RJ Slow times ahead>(Slow times ahead):
Auric - I believe that June has historically proven to be the slowest month of the year for gold. The entire northern hemisphere is on vacation. This pick up towards the end of July.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:20
RJ Huh?>(Huh?):
RE: 16 1997 03:54 - Bernatz de Ventadorm ( le_fou@has a soul ) : - What is it hat you are trying to say? Are you attempting to communicate

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:17
Auric Beddy-buy time >(Beddy-buy time ):

I believe June will be a good month for gold.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 04:17
RJ Belief System>(Belief System):
Disney - Beware of Irish Wolfhounds. They believe is sneaking up behind you and, well, the rest is ugly.......

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 03:59
REB waiting.up>(waiting.up):
I believe in Santa Claus ( BT ) . No sign of him yet, though.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 03:54
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@has a soul>(le_fou@has a soul):
To All
Ah believe in zee pyranees, and mah gold from zee dirt machine,
and zee lady's pretty legs - an zee revolution !!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 03:49
John Disney>(
For RJ

I believe your belief manifesto covers the waterfront
and I believe in the waterfront
I believe that my own belief system encompasses
much of yours but I also believe that many large
dogs truly like me.
I believe I am getting silly

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 03:16
John Disney>(
For 6pak
I cant get off this thing. You are right. Capitalism
has degenerated into a a kind of greed pit where BIG
has become controlling. Big corporations, big cynical
Government, Big Media. From the standpoint of civil
liberty and individual thought, its approaching
totalitarionism - for the KGB read the FBI or the
alcohol tobacco and firearms ( ) for the gestapo.
Janet Reno for Himmler. Himmler looked better anyway.
Wacker and Bernie in their frenzy of envy want even
MORE government to fix things - when government is
in complete collusion with the forces they hate. How
silly can one be
Society WAS more egalitarian 40/50 years ago. It
was richer. It had more quality. When I was 10 to 15
years old, I could afford good seats at a Horowitz
or Rubenstein concert. Every major city had a Symphony
orchestra. They are dissapearing now. Classical music
is becoming a rich man's pastime. The poor man doesnt
even know it exists.
If I go to an opera in Capetown, there are no Blacks
in the audience. They are in the cast because of
affirmative action but not buying tickets. Please spare
me the poor Blacks cant afford tickets cheapshot as
any POP concert with more expensive tickets will be
half black at least.
I feel I'm losing focus and my mind is wandering.
Good morning Mr 6pak. I go now

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 03:02
Strad Master G'nite!>(G'nite!):
RJ: My, my... I believe it's time for beddy-bye. I believe you believe some of those. I believe some of those, you don't. Ever had burritos at La Superica on State St. in Santa Barbara? Some of the best Mexican food in the state!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 02:56
RJ I do believe>(I do believe):
I also believe the Tyrannosaurs in Jurassic Park and The Lost Word are completely believable.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 02:48
RJ Belief Manifesto>(Belief Manifesto):
I believe the Dow will hit 10,000
I believe in Father Christmas. Father time, and Mother Nature.
I believe we are experiencing the most prosperous times of our era and that things will get even better.
I believe that The Simpsons is the most socially relevant show on television today.
I believe the FBI reads the Kitco Gold Group daily. Howdy Agent ___________ ( fill in the blank )
I believe in soft pornography and long, slow, wet kisses that last for three days. ( borrowed from Bull Durram )
I believe we do get the democracy we deserve.
I believe that Capitalism, in order to succeed, needs but one thing: Markets.
I belief that the semicolon is far too confusing and that either its use should be allowed indiscriminately or it ought to be outlawed.
I believe that anyone who proposes a new law should be exiled.
I believe that anyone who proposes a new tax should be forced into servitude to those exiled for proposing new laws.
I believe a conspiracy should only be considered if it is possible.
I believe OJ is guilty.
I believe Johnny Cocharan will be as closely tied to OJ through eternity as he is in life.
I believe the only way to win at scrabble is to sandbag and wait for the double and triple word score opportunities. This has not worked yet, but I believe it will.
I believe Bill Clinton is sincere. I also believe has is a pathological liar.
I believe that Hillary will be indicted.
I believe Vince Foster killed himself.
I believe that Hunter S. Thompson is the most brilliant writer of this generation.
I believe that all human condition can be found in the works of William Shakespeare.
I believe that only Nixon could have gone to China. I also believe he was a crook.
I believe that optimism will create optimistic outcomes.
I believe we are what we think.
I believe Pierre Sallenger has gone off the deep end.
I believe Ralph Nader is a truly moral man.
I Believe that the Smoking Man shot JFK and Martin Luther King. ( see: The X-files )
I believe that there are those in the Kitco Gold Group who are true paranoids.
I believe that there are those in the Kitco Gold Group who are true visionaries.
I believe the paranoids think I am talking about them.
I believe they are right.
I believe that any minute savings are not worth switching your long distance from AT&T.
I believe in sunscreen although I never use it.
I believe that Mozart was the greatest composer of all time.
I believe that Mohammed Ali was the greatest of all time.
I believe that Mike Tyson is a petty rapist and a punk.
I believe if I ever told Mike Tyson this, he would punch me, and that punch would cause brain damage.
I believe in the benefits of roughage and bran.
I believe in a woody Cabernet Sauvignon.
I believe there is no difference between aging in French oak or American oak.
I believe that one does an apprenticeship in white wines and then graduates to reds.
I believe that the superior palette prefers reds.
I believe that Champagne is frivolous and best suited to women or men who believe their own press.
I believe that on New Year’s Eve, at 11:55 PM, there is no substitute for Champaign.
I believe I would rather live in California, with the occasional earthquake, than in any other place in the country with humidity, rain, snow, freezing temperatures, tornadoes, mosquitoes, burritos, or hurricanes.
I believe that the best burritos can be found in California.
I believe that the belief before last now makes no sense as it mentions burritos.
I believe that belief makes it so.
I believe that one should not feel guilty about enjoying an action movie, even if there seems to be an inverse relationship between the number of explosions and ones IQ.
I believe that Troglodytes briefly shared the earth with Homo-sapiens about 30,000 years ago.
I believe that dolphins and whales are intelligent, sentient creatures.
I believe that mice are manifestations in this universe of pan-dimensional hyper-intelligent beings ( this borrowed from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy )
I believe that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.
I believe that we are not alone in the universe.
I believe that when we finally discover that we are not alone in the universe that the nationalistic borders, to which we attach so much import, will become less important as we all begin to view ourselves as a pale blue dot.
I believe Einstein was right.
I believe Einstein was only the beginning.
I believe in quantum mechanics and the bizarre implications contained thereof.
I belief the Twinkie defense was an abomination.
I believe that the 1990s will be known as The litigious society in which no one would accept responsibility for their own actions.
I believe that the 1990s being known as The litigious society in which no one would accept responsibility for their own actions is not quite as catchy as The Roaring Twenties .
I believe in gold.
I believe that Gold is a horrible buy and hold investment.
I believe that gold is a necessary evil in ones portfolio.
I believe that there is no such thing as a proper portfolio.
I believe that margarine is worse than butter.
I believe that a Rolex is much too heavy.
I believe in Japanese cars.
I believe that a man should never wear more than one ring, and a woman never less than two.
I believe that the war of the sexes was a media invention and that it was never more than mutual hostility.
I believe all television news is garbage and that the only way to be well informed is to read.
I believe that Jean Luc Picard was a better captain than James Tiberius Kirk.
I believe in the Tholian Web.
I believe in causality loops.
I believe in chocolate.
I believe chocolate milk is a sacrilege to chocolate.
I believe in crocodile shoes.
I believe in diamonds
I believe that it doesn’t matter that others do not know whether you are wearing real crocodile or diamonds, it matters that you know.
I believe as if it appears I have far too much time on my hands.
I believe in free speech.
I do believe I have spoken for too long.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 02:46
Strad Master Baby Strads>(Baby Strads):
MOONEY & ROEBEAR: Thanks for your good wishes. I shall keep all aprised of developments. GOLD... ( That's for Bart! )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 02:38
Strad Master Onward Bearish Soldiers!>(Onward Bearish Soldiers!):
STEVE PUETZ: Aha! Now I undrstand. I knew you could explain it. So many of my friends think I'm nutty for espousing the idea that the market might go down that I'm tired of even mentioning it - especially as I'm the one who is losing out on the current profits. Still, I think RJ's idea - go out ant throw a rock up in the air and watch which way it goes - is brilliant, and now I have a better idea why it ought to go down soon. Many thanks!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 02:21
6pak Additional comment>(Additional comment):
As we view the achievements of aggregated capital,
we discover the existence of trusts, combinations and
monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the
rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel.
Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained
creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are
fast becoming the people's masters....

President Grover Cleveland, annual message to congress, 1888

I can hire one half the working class to kill the other half

Jay Gould, railroad magnate, before the 1886 strike on his South
Western System.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:54
John Disney jake la motta@raging bull>(jake la motta@raging bull):
for the Roebear
There is no silver play
in RSA.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:44
John Disney>(
for Roebear
Thank you and forgive me. I was temporarily blind with rage at the
insult to Bro Vronsky .My mind, memory, and dictionary went blank.
( Whoever heard of a 7.65 walther ppk water pistol ? )

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:44
6pak Depression @ I hope not.>(Depression @ I hope not.):
RJ June 15 @ 19:23 * We all share responsibility for the government
party ( GP ) * * We get all the democracy we deserve * * Never give them ( GP ) a reason to make an example of you *

A Recession is when your neighbour is laid off.
A Depression is when you are laid off.

We in Canada, and the USofA, live in a controlled economy, yes, there is the chance to invest, and believe in a free market place. But, reality dictate's the existence of a controled people's. Yes, Benevolent Economic Dictatorship, the system works well, for many, no need to change.

The Golden Insanity built on red scares and graft, on the open shop and wild gambling, ended where all refusals to face reality end.
In late October of 1929 the bubble burst. Its symbol was the tumbling stock market where nearly 25 billions of dollars in stock market values were wiped out almost overnight.

Some 5,761 banks failed. Gross farm income dropped from 12 billions of dollars to a little over 5 billions. Wage cuts came one after the other until they averaged 45 % for all industry. Industrial production dropped by almost 50 %. By 1933 there were anywhere from 12,000,000 to 17,000,000

The appointment of committees and commissions was President Hoover's way of dealing with the depression. He took no action to help the unemployed, backed the wage cuts, and favoured staggered employment. Feeling that it was the employers who needed help, he organized the Reconstruction
Finance Corporation, which loaned 2 billions of taxpayer's money to industry and finance on the theory that their prosperity would trickle
down to the common people. It did not.

In general the officials of the American Federation of Labor backed the President. They did not oppose the wage-cutting program nor did they offer any program of their own for the relief of the unemployed. There
were virtually no AFofL strikes in resistance to wage cuts as William Green, Matthew Woll and others of the hierarchy joined President Hoover
in assuring the workers that prosperity was just around the corner.

Following the lead of the National Association of Manufacturers and the United States Chamber of Commerce, the AFofL, one year after the crisis began, went on record against unemployment insurance. Green characterized
unemployment insurance as a hindrance to progress a dole which
would degrade the dignity of the workingman and subsidize idleness

As Green took his stand, the United States Chamber of Commerce described
unemployment insurance as Communism, declared those fighting for it were un-Americans trying to sap the initiative of the American people.

Hundreds of small businessmen committed suicide as their concerns failed, but Big Business grew steadily larger as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt told Congress in 1938 when he said, in time of depression bigger business has opportunities to grow bigger still, at the expense of smaller competitors.

By 1932 people began to wonder if it was really the reds that had been menacing them.It was easy enough to see the menance in testimony before the Senate Subcommittee of the Committee on Manufacturing investigating unemployment relief. But it was a little difficult for most to see how that menace came from the Communists.

Big Trader has again posted, are we to consider that he represents the
REDS, is that not a very significant sign that the depression is here again, the big RED scare. I do not want to see a depression, as noted
above. Our way of life destroyed, not because of the REDS, but in fact by the incompetence of Democratic Leadership, and vested interests.

The fact that the people get the * Democracy we deserve * Gold, should not have been disconnected, and the people should not have given those elected officials such trust, nor believed the RED scare.
Here we go again, I do hope you, and your loved one's will be safe.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:37
I posted several days ago re: a custome indicator i developed a while back which seems to work very well in alerting me to changes in markets that are not as obvious otherwise. In re: the gold weekly chart, the indicator broke into the buy alert zone for the first time since Dec. 1995. And it was a down week for gold.Mooney I'm considering naming the indicator Louis XVI. It may prove to be a false signal, but we'll know for sure in the next couple of weeks.

happy trading

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:35
John Disney>(
For RJ
Jeez I wish I could have been young in 1983. Even
in Beirut. Actually I was in Beirut in 1980 or 1981.
It was a few weeks before the Israelis bombed the
airport. I was the only guy in the hotel. I ordered
smoked salmon and the waiters gave me the whole fish.
I liked your poem a lot - good images, tough minded,
compassionate. You are right about the meter. BUT it
( the meter ) was reminiscent of the Jake la Motta
poetic soliloquy in Raging Bull
Give me a stage
Where this bull can rage
and though I can fight
I'd rather recite
That's entertainment
Could you have been under the spell of the brilliant
Scorsese and DiNiro and the ghost of the old Jake at
the time you were visited by the poetic muse.
I have one minor disagreement with your slogan of
conservatives as borrow and spend - That begun under
Reagan when he was unable to control the Democrat run
congress - He refused to tax to cover costs and the
only way to pay the congress's bills was to borrow.
But you are right. Conservatives are as bad as
liberals. They want power and they want to feel good
about it too. For example, Chirac and Kohl are no
better than Jospin or Blair. The EMU has now become
little more than a Kohl ego trip. The problem is the
system itself. DEMOCRACY does not permit one to

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:21
Roebear @Lostchocolateworld>(@Lostchocolateworld):
First: I want to thank everyone here ( except 007 ) for a great weekend at Kitco, when I had a chance to tune in.
Second: I want to thank everyone here for the Last Word, that does not happen to often for me and if the little woman was up I wouldn't be getting the last word in either!
Third: And so here it is, in the immortal words of Red Skelton,
Good night and God Bless

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 01:05
Roebear Chocolateland>(Chocolateland):
John Disney say what you will to L007, baretta=Berreta and that should be a Walther PPK 7.65 water pistol!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:55
John Disney>(
For lurker 007 - How dare you badmouth brother Vronsky _ a PIONEER
on this site with your johnny come lately crapola. Have some
respect. Keep quiet until you can offer something constructive -
Also - pilgrim - where did you get that posturing moniker someone might take your baretta water pistol away from you if you're not more careful.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:52
Way to go John Disney! I would not disagree with any of your 00:39
Tyson was farther in LA LA land than the market last fight, hope he really gets his bell rung this time!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:46
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
John Disney Good to hear from you John and a fine morning to you in SA. A couple weeks ago we talked about BLYDY and DROOY. You gave some very welcome info on their fundamentals. They have dropped a bit but may be holding at 2 7/16 and 4 1/2 respective. Most of my powder dry on these two but I am getting the urge to spark the flint again; any recent news or views, the price is looking better! Also, are there any silver plays in SA you would recommend.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:39
John Disney>(
Rich people and taxes.
I cannot help but feel that taxing rich people is
theft. Nevertheless, I tend to envy and dislike them.
But I suspect some of us dislike different sets
of rich people. Bernie ( once again I read him by accident
- dam ) dislikes CORPORATIONS like GM and thinks they should
Maybe Im mad or missing something but this to me is
nutty. If coporations are taxed they will over time
treat this as a cost and raise prices and pass the
cost to the consumer. The effect will be like a comsumption
tax. The only real effect on corporations would be to make
them a little less internationally competitive.
Bernie my dear I think your envy and lust for tax money
is misdirected. I do think that TOP executives are OVER
PAYED and in a big way. But I see this as matter for
outmanoevered shareholders to fix NOT big brother
government who is also OVER paid via ghost written
memoirs, bribes, kickbacks, speaking engagements,etc.
I think that entertainers are overpaid. Particularly
entertainers that I dont like. Streisand is overpaid.
Goldberg is too. So is Costner. But Seinfeld deserves
every penny. Sport figures are overpaid. Tyson is
overpaid. But thats the market and the value of FAME.
I suggest a Fame Tax oe Celebrity Tax - So there.
Now on the subject of Tyson - I think Holyfield will
win if he can take Tyson out into five rounds or so.
Im sure many will disagree but I think iron mike's jaw
is make of a softer metal and whenever he is clocked
he locks his knees to stay up. This makes him walk
funny and easy to hit. Holyfield is a very good fighter
without great power but a great heart good hand
speed and a clear head. Tyson has super power, not
much heart and few brains.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:10
Roebear @HersheyBears>(@HersheyBears):
Congratulations Strad Master and wife, will be looking forward to a Symphony in Gold Major in a few years!

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 00:04
Mooney @Puetz>(@Puetz):
Also wanted to mention before turning in tonight that you and I, Steve Puetz, have something in common in addition to our given name, namely that I, too, have experienced that low belly feeling when locked limit improperly!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:55
John Disney>(
Five AM on a frosty African morning. Ive been reading
the site - as I dig into my papaya and black coffee. I
can only say that you people were at your creative
best EVER over this weekend. I am stunned but inspired
by you.
First to Duncan who asked why Joel fell thirty cents
on friday. Look Duncan, how do I know I assume that it
was maybe thirty cents too high on thursday. When my
stocks fall unexpectedly by large percentages, I
usually attribute this to the work of the Prince of
Darkness and the Antichrist working together against me
in fearsome harmony. I suspect this may be the problem
in your case but I hope not. But be careful crossing
I have avoided Joel. I was in it a two years ago to
get in on their one for one stock issue at 2.5 rands. I
then sold out at 5. With gold like it is, I assumed
that a gold stock can only have so many goodies like
that in it. Also I believe that on a cost of reserves
basis they are about 5 or 6 times more expensive than
durban deep or Harmony ( fearsome harmony - see above - could
this be an OMEN ? ) .
You will recall my earlier references to Lebowa
platinum I hope. Well they were just merged with
PP- rust and amplats. The latter two got a premium
of 10-15% over market. Leplat got a premium of over
50% and I had stacks. About a month ago you could have
bought for as low a 2.5 and I sold it all last week for
4.45-4.5. It was my only platinum stock and I hope Im not kicking
myself next week.
I guess my main reason for selling was to get out
before the dreaded P of D did the same thing to me that
he did to your Joel.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:53
Strad @23:18: I'll drink to that. Most especially, your statement #2.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:45
TED @goodnight>(@goodnight):
EBN Gold up .20 and Silver up 1 cent....we're headed in the right direction...Goodnight all!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:44
It's A Small Kitco World Afterall! I'm off composing a post about Strad and come back on to see he's been active ( in more ways then one! ) . Congratulations Strad Master and Mrs. Strad!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:32
Steve Puetz @ Strad Master>(@ Strad Master):
Strad: The one ingrediant that we have now in much bigger doses than we did in either 1929 or 1987, in a word -- LEVERAGE. The DJIA never could have risen so far without massive amounts of borrowed money pushing it up. Swaps Monitor estimates global derivative open-interest at just short of $60 trillion -- 12 times the US government debt!!! NYSE Margin Debt, credit card debt, mortgage refinancings have all gone into stock in varying degrees. When stocks finally do turn lower, the mother of all MARGIN CALLS will be unleashed.

About 15 years ago, I was on the wrong side of a pork-belly trade when pork-bellies locked limit for several days in a row. I can tell from personal experience, being leveraged on the wrong side of a trade and not being able to get out -- that is one of the worst feelings in the world.

Now, we have circuit breakers gallor on the NYSE and S&P futures. There is no doubt that once the market breaks enough, the margin calls will come, the circuit breakers will pop, and millions of leveraged stock players will be trapped in stocks with no way of getting out.

It's sort of like Field of Dreams: Give them the margin money, and the margin calls shall come.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:30
Happy Father's Day All!
Been quite busy for a few days and so am just beginning at Friday's comments to try and catch up when I noticed the Strad Master's question about 'what will MAKE the market ( stocks ) fall - their own weight or what?' Well I don't know yet if this question was pursued any further than Friday night, or if anybody has said exactly what I'm about to, but here goes. I agree with WW New England's comment that eventually it will be supply and demand, ( because, when you get right down to it, that is always the ultimate factor in setting price levels ) , that causes the market to drop.
What I have to add is that IF nothing untoward, ( or unexpected ) , happens in the Political, or Environmental realms First, that causes the Supply to increase ( # of willing Sellers ) and the Demand to drop ( # of willing Buyers ) , then I believe that the economic factor that will trigger the turning point will be the raising of interest rates. Remember this recent very minor increase was what caused the very temporary 'correction' that we recently had in the stock markets. The easing of the interest rate increase fears has now taken us to further lofty heights. The next increase of rates should definitely be the pin that pricks the balloon.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:27
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
BERNIE: Excellent post re foundations belonging to the Super Rich.
We have been examining these for a while now. Even the famous Myer family in Australia seem to have one set up. The way to stop these tax evasion foundations is to ensure that the next generation of the super rich ( ie the kids ) are legally prevented from being beneficiaries of a foundation. I noted that President Kennedy's children got a handy little pay out of their family foundation recently. While I would like to stop these foundations entirely that throw a lot of money at rather dubious causes, this is not likely.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:26
Strad Master A little Strad on the way!>(A little Strad on the way!):
ALL: As it is still Father's Day ( happy wishes to all of you ) I want to use this forum to announce that The Strad's are expecting a new little sound generator in late January. ( No. 3 ) ( Please forgive me, Bart, since this isn't gold-related but when there exists an international forum of close friends it is difficult to resit the temptation! ) Needless to say, we are ecstatic!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:24
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: Thank YOU for posting!...EBN Gold up .15 and Silver up 1 cent..
Dollar down against most currencies except the Portugese Escudo that is plungin ( down 1.32% ) ....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:18
Strad Master Just one of the guys...>(Just one of the guys...):
RJ: You are, indeed, one of the guys ( and gals - we can't leave out Auroelf ) . I, for one, didn't find your initial postings to be at all in your face as you characterize them. A sincere posting here at Kitco, backed by sound thought and experience as yours obviously were, will always be met by acceptance and respect. As you may have noted while lurking, others ocassionally posted contrary opinion and were summarily shot down. I think that was more a function of the writer's aggresive and combative style of posting than of the opinions expressed. You are a gentleman and so didn't approach it that way. Besides, your writing style is so lovely that even if you were wrong ( which I suspect you are not ) your postings would be a joy to read. I only wish that 1. ) you had started posting a lot sooner and 2. ) I hadn't gotten into metals until AFTER I started frequenting Kitco. I'd be financially a lot better off right now.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:13
Vieserre Thanks For a Good Read>(Thanks For a Good Read):
RJ, Mike S, Earl, Steve, Geo., Ted, Strad and others too numerous to mention: I have just reviewed and I want to knowledge my appreciation and thanks for the insight and exemplary humanity which your posts have so profoundly demonstrated. And BT, whoever and where ever you are, I sure hope you are right.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:06
Panda @22:40: Paper versus stuff? I have been trying to generate some interest in that thread for the past couple of days. Given all the potential pitfalls in the world today, I do think it is a question that should be pondered more seriously. Everyone would like to extract that extra pound of leveraged flesh, because it always worked in the past. Maybe it won't, this time. ..... But hell, I'm congenital cassandra. The glass is never half full. It's always half empty.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 23:02
Strad Master Waiting, Watching, & Wondering>(Waiting, Watching, & Wondering):
STEVE PUETZ: I'm glad you so enjoyed my comments. You are a very valued asset to the Kitco site and I always look forward to your postings. I have a question about your response to me regarding the numbers you posted for me a few days ago. Those valuations are all SO much bigger than the equivalent numbers in '29 or '87. It seems that they are disproportionately higher which leads me to wonder if there hasn't, indeed, been some sort of seminal change in the way markets work. Having lost a LOT of money already waiting for the market to turn and for the metals to get going to the upside, I always read such valuation numbers with a mix of dread and glee, yet month after month, nothing ever seems to change and the markets just continue to do the exact opposite of what logic would seem to suggest. The explanation I have always heard is that the farther the markets get out of proportion, the bigger the coming crash, yet that too has been said for years. I'm sure there's an easy explanation for this so I look forward to your reply. Thanks

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:58
RJ Stuff>(Stuff):
Vronsky - RE: your 14:58: I've never had a button before! Strad - thanks. I'm starting to feel like one of the guys. Who would have guessed with my rather unconventional in your face introduction to this group.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:51
WW: How come the China/HK billionaire connection wasn't established
last year or 5 years ago?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:51
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
Tough Times Predicted for Equities & Bond Markets ( Bankers Trust )
Check site:
The wealthy Myer Family sold 1% of their Australian national grocery chain on Friday following strong growth in the stock price in the past few months. Affluent investors taking some profits...old chap...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:47
Strad Master Great postings!>(Great postings!):
MIKE SHELLER & RJ: Your postings are always thought-provoking and instructional. I found, though, your recent dialogue about your military experience to be profoundly moving. While I was never in the military I have the UTMOST respect for those of you who were and who endured privation and even terror for the sake of causes you may have not fully agreed with. To you and others with similar experiences I wish to say, Thank you!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:41
WW @New England>(@New England):
Sorry Guys but China taking over HK will at least be a short term positive for HK mkt. If there was worry it wouldnt be going up now. Further, The HK billionaires will front for the Reds to get Capital for the mainland through HK mkt. After REDS get the development they want they will take over at a cheap price/HK billionaires will get a commission and cheap labor for serving the reds.

Our Guys want to invest in China but fear lack of control over their investment if reds want to do a number on them. ERGO US Govt inconsistent policy of appeasement. These boys are robbing our technology and our capitalists are STILL frantic not to get them po'd. The reds always say the Capitalist will hang himself with his own rope. For the hope of short term profit and of tapping Chinese mkt ( really they are tapping ours as they have the surplus ) the Reds observation is playing out to a tune or more aptly TOON.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:40
panda @>(@):
If we are to believe BT is for real, then am I to assume that the only way to play, if that is the right word, is with the real stuff? Paper of all sorts is headed for Big Trouble? Comments anyone? ( FWIW, anyone who doesn't have at least some physicals should get some, just because you never know. )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:37
MoreGold @SimpleMan>(@SimpleMan):
Hope your right, no irrational exuberance here.....
I will be cheering the Dow on from this point on. I really hope it continues up strong, the stronger the better.
The 8000 to 8500 level is not inconcievable.
This market feels like it's just aproaching the summit, and this is the final push to the top, where all the late investors are clammoring to get in ( notice the Europeans ) , not to be outdone by others using credit cards to buy in.
Once at the top, no matter what direction you look, there is only one way to go, DOWN.
Go Dow Go..........

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:36
Strad Master Thanks>(Thanks):
EARL: Your extremely kind comments about me are truly humbling, especially in the light of so many fine individuals who regularly post here. You give me much to live up to and I am honored.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:36
panda @moment.of.truth?>(@moment.of.truth?):
I guess we'll find out, as best we can, whether BT is real or not.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:32
Listener Zero Hour>(Zero Hour):
Big Trader has taken his stand. It's now or never. Ante up.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:29
Hong Kong under China control. Can this really be a non-event in the
financial world? Doesn't Hong Kong have the highest number of billionaires
in the world? Maybe a little run on the London gold market isn't so
unbelievable. Revenge is powerful motovator.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:23
Steve Puetz @ deflation>(@ deflation):
WW: Deflationary forces do seem to be taking over. Retail sales down 3 months in a row. PPI down 5 months in a row -- which establishment press proclaims meaning that inflationary pressures are absent, rather than outright deflation.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:16
STEVE PUETZ.........Am I ever glad to pronounce Pitts. You wouldn't believe some of the ones floating in my mind....Why there is ole TED and sometimes I have a hard time with that one....Is there any great philosophy coming on here tonight If so it is going to have to come soon or wait until the morning for me....The sandman is throwing sand in the eyes as we speak...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:14
Lan Man Question>(Question):
Aurophile: Whats the latest on the DTTI?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:10
RJ Clarification>(Clarification):
Mike Sheller - Prior to Mike @ 20:28, Was that you or another mike? Re: your last, The only proper response to a salute is to return it.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:05
RJ Thanks>(Thanks):
Mike - Words to vote by.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:03
Mike Sheller>(
RJ: Thanks for sharing the poem. I have one for you, but not tonite. Yours meant a lot. I salute you.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 22:01
Steve Puetz @ pronunciation >(@ pronunciation ):
Nailz: Pronounce as Pitts -- it's a German name. You're right, I'm hooked. This is the 3rd time today I've been on Kitco-chat.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 21:32
WW @New England>(@New England):
GOOD POINT GENE: They do seem to be preoccupied with mkt behavior which tells you they know the risks are growing.

Deflation + ( Big Debt + Financial Mkt bubble ) = Depression + Default + Ballooning Deficit + Flight from Reserve currency + Gold Explodes. Deflation is taking over and this is what CB s are worried about. Stk mkt rallies may be an attempt at reliquification which is too narrow to work.
Constantly talking of gold sales is they want to keep the cat in the bag. The last eleven weeks in Gold and silver look like markets under intense control. And... Why even when they are heading up is there always a selloff at the end of the day...HMM. The action tonight looks like another 340 go below early in the week. I believe any significant rally in gold like 5 bucks would send Dow down big time.

The story they put out requires continual market obedience. Remember, they dont want recession talk ( which is beginning because of debt ) , Stk mkt rally stops this psychology from developing ( maybe ) . What happened to Greenspan's irrational exuberance? ) HMM. Stron Mkt helps Keep desparately needed Capital flowing to US to buy the massive amount of Treasuries for sale. ( new and Refi ) .

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 21:27
RJ: Regarding your earlier question; I don't know why it should be surprising that we are in close agreement on volume making all the difference in ( any ) market. That should be self evident though it is overlooked, occasionally. I have agreed with most everyone of your posts and especially today at 19:23. I learn more than I'm able to contribute. Please continue.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 21:13
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
The financial markets are now like Jurassic Park. Complex systems and fences control vast economic forces. Chaos Theory dictates that the more complex a system the more likely it is to fall into chaos. Nobody will control the economic markets after they break loose. The Central Bank must be in a panic to start that rumor about gold sales. It sounds like something very big may be coming down. What can be so big as to cause the Central Bank to panic?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 21:08
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold down a nickle and Dollar mixed....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 21:03
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
To RJ, I enjoyed your post of 6/15; 19:23. Big government can exert only so much control and wealth shifting until ATLAS SHRUGS. You may have read Ayan Rand's Atlas Shrugged. You sound a lot like her. In her book she has a Bre-X type swindel which is the beginning of a big gold run-up.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:55
RLM Typo>(Typo):
Sorry for the double post. Didn't look like the first one worked.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:54
RLM Deflation/Inflation>(Deflation/Inflation):
Aurophile/GS Cole
Aurophile... Always appreciate your input! You said:
“In Japan there was a great deal of personal savings to help weather the disinflationary storm. Here we have the government bailout of everything mentality.” George reminded us of the latest government statistics:
“Wholesale prices have fallen for 5 consecutive months; is this not disinflation or possibly even deflation”.

First off I’m a gold bug, so inflation would not make me unhappy ;- )
I appreciate your perspective on the difference between the more financially independent Japanese, and the government “addicted” Americans ( let the government fix it ) . This would argue for inflation here versus allowing deflation there. But with the string of wholesale price declines, my CONCERN was that we were slipping into deflation. I believe you, and George and Leeb are arguing that these numbers will be the impetus ( fear of the resulting riots ) to force government to soon “react” by injecting “money” into the system which would reignite inflation. I’ve been a deflationist, the three of you have impacted that thinking. Thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:53
RLM Deflation/Inflation>(Deflation/Inflation):
Aurophile/GS Cole
Aurophile... Always appreciate your input! You said:
“In Japan there was a great deal of personal savings to help weather the disinflationary storm. Here we have the government bailout of everything mentality.” George reminded us of the latest government statistics:
“Wholesale prices have fallen for 5 consecutive months; is this not disinflation or possibly even deflation”.

First off I’m a gold bug, so inflation would not make me unhappy ;- )
I appreciate your perspective on the difference between the more financially independent Japanese, and the government “addicted” Americans ( let the government fix it ) . This would argue for inflation here versus allowing deflation there. But with the string of wholesale price declines, my CONCERN was that we were slipping into deflation. I believe you, and George and Leeb are arguing that these numbers will be the impetus ( fear of the resulting riots ) to force government to soon “react” by injecting “money” into the system which would reignite inflation. I’ve been a deflationist, the three of you have impacted that thinking. Thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:31
REB na>(na):
Their are a few articles at this URL about China take-over of Hong Kong.
Some Western diplomats are going to be boycotting part of the ceremony, but the Chinese are going to do it their way.

HUGE celebrations are planned in Beijing. Chinese not sorry ( understatement ) to see the British off their soil.

This stuff is pertinent to BT, simpleman posts below. China is most decidedly not part of the G7.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:28
Mike @>(@):
RJ: Profound post. If there is no one to vote for, there is always one to vote against. ALWAYS VOTE AGAINST THE INCUMBENT.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:28
HEY BART.....That B&^L SH&T filter you sold me for $17.95 is starting to fail....Enclosed is a check for another one. Please either hurry with it or assign us all a permanent handle so some can't post under different handles ( yes multiples ) .

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:21
Funday Neck High>(Neck High):
Bob M: With regard to the folks who have been buried in gold since the 1980's I don't think they will leap into selling as soon as they can break even or make a small profit after 20 years. If I'm any measure I can not disregared the bank or bond let alone stock market loss that has occurr while I awaited the financial or other calamity that would have make gold a good investment. But it is so much of a loss that gold at $500 or even back to 800 is a drop in the bucket. Gold bought 15-20 years ago is a loss unless the bizare revaluations to 5000 or 10000 or 35000 an oz suddenly show up. Some will sieze the opportunity to get out of a bad investment at some predetermined figure set 15-20 years ago but its much like house insurance if there is no calamity the premiums are a loss.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 20:14
RJ Its not personal>(Its not personal):
Mike Sheller - Interesting you should mention the Godfather. Regarding the last paragraph of my 19:23. Remember, its not personal, its just business. Also remember Vito Corleone’s reason for turning down Solozzo. He believed that it would destroy them all in the future. Always think of the long term picture. Regarding the Vietcong, with all respect, you may be looking at some things through a very personal lens. I too have had guns fired at me in anger. Not just guns, but artillery, and tank fire. I was part of Reagan’s dismal failure in Beirut in 1983. The parallel with Vietnam is appropriate. We too had no clear cut military objective. We too were put in a hostile environment with one hand tied behind our backs, hobbled by rules of engagement that were a cruel joke. I saw 283 marines die for no purpose. A belittled and beaten US withdrew with nothing to show for the blood. I do realize though, to quote S. E. Hinton, that was then, this is now. I have many friends that are Vietnam Vets. To them, and to you, I want to say thanks.

Something I wrote in Beirut as 16 shells from the New Jersey flew over my head. The meter is a bit forced, but I was young then:

The clouds hide the moon
So I turn on the light
On a roof in Beirut
On a balmy night
With the sound of the fight
Echoing nearby
The bombs exploding
Artillery scolding
The pen I’m holding

Lets dance, says Bowie
on the radio by
I suppress a sigh
And a silent cry
For those who die
By and by
Without knowing why

It’s been said
That dead is dead
when a hot piece of lead
Blows off your head
Off you go
And don’t you know
Around your toe
They hang a tag
And shove your remains
In a brown zippered bag

The Americans, the French,
The Italians and Brits
They must be here
For grins and shits
‘Cause this ain’t the Ritz

And now I think
I understand
The best laid plans
Of mice and men
Are still just hit and miss
So I sit and stare
At the rockets red glare
On the roof of a hotel
In a country that’s going nowhere.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:57
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway):
George S. Cole
You think that BT may be for real. But you are not sure.
Others have ignored his comments.
Two months ago I posted a warning to all who trust in paper, all paper.
Last week I warned all about the slaughter of fools.
There was a real concern and fear in London. US media reports nothing. London kept the lid tight. Next two weeks will show all that BT is for real.
Re: future price fo gold, the increase and the speed of increase will shock 99.999% of investors and 98% of gold bulls.
Summer 1997 will go down in history as the begining of geopolitical changes.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:47
Mike @>(@):
FOR THE BEARISHLY INCLINED: long September 900 OEX put ( oewut, ask 49 ) short September 870 OEX put ( oewuj, bid 32 ) . Cost: 17. Presently 30 points in the money. You win if the OEX does not gain more than 13 points by September.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:41
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Hi scrolling me way up from the bottom...Sounds nice at Robert Moses State park but was it crowded?...We are finally getting warm weather and even the icebergs are gone...Come back to gotta be kiddin...if you only knew my history in that town!..SUSHI..YECK!
You must be tryin to torment a vegetarian....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:40
Mike Sheller Big Brotherly Advice>(Big Brotherly Advice):
RJ: Your post to John Disney was profound and disturbing. I too have no use for either Liberals or Conservatives as they are currently constituted. I concede my compassion level for humanity and my fellow to no liberal, nor do I concede my vision of individual rights to any conservative. The final thought in your exposition is all I might contend with. Having had the Vietcong attempt to kill me on several occasions, and having failed, how can I hold myself back from contending openly with the renegade government that is burgeoning around me like a stultifying cancer? I just watched the Godfather, and Godfather II on TV the past 2 nites. Hmmmm. Maybe discretion, and buying gold is the better part of valor. But it's not easy to swallow. In any event, you have pulled the bandage off the pus-soaked scab very nicely. I thank you for that.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:37
RJ Agreement?>(Agreement?):
Earl - I agree with your 01:41. Can this be posible?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:34
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Hi Mike!...Ya got that right about Gold 5,000 before Dow 250...But neither one of us will see either in our lifetimes....SUSHI....oh, My God me the shivers!...Spectacular evening on the ocean and can hear the loons in the distance....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:30
People say gold not rise in us$, big trader say it rise “now”!
Keep best eye on hk at london open, all week. Comex to
Offer to sell is no take, time gone. No more talk, no more
thoughts for West! “Stand down” for 4th time, no.
It time now, Trader make “times interesting” for gold.
Now we see what real. Now we see who real.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:30
Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:29
Mike Sheller Papas Fritas>(Papas Fritas):
By the way, even though, as a professional marketing and ad man, I know this is a hyped contrivance to sell greeting cards...HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all to whom that applies. I feel your pain. TED - Spent a day at the beach at Robert Moses State Park on the South Shore of LI yesterday. No porpoises, icebergs, or lobster pots in sight, but nice. Warmer than I thought it would be at the surf. Beach was nice and populated too. Summer's near, and the time is here for dancin' in the street. Won't you think about coming back?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:26
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: A gun that kills....should have been my defense in Vermont! Will also try and catch Frontline Nazi gold program...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:23
RJ To: Disney and all>(To: Disney and all):
John Disney - Re: 6/14 @ 02:34 - I must agree that theft is theft regardless of whose face it wears, and your assessment of liberal policies is correct. The next question must then be asked. For those that have read some of my priors, you know I am very big on thinking the next thought, even when, or especially when, the next one makes us uncomfortable. I have added this caveat, not to cast you in this light as you are obviously a well reasoned man, but to share what I consider to be my own political maturation.

I used to consider myself a conservative, and in many ways can still be described as such. This was when I applied the next thought philosophy on a more selective basis. I was often heard to say, to anyone who would listen, The liberals want what can’t be done; they want to legislate compassion. One day I looked beyond those words. If this is true of liberals, is there a similar fundamental truth about conservatives? It than occurred to me that conservatives also want what can’t be done; They want to legislate morality.

( I have probably used a semicolon incorrectly twice in the preceding paragraph. I understand that a semicolon is a mark of punctuation used to connect independent clauses and indicating a closer relationship between the clauses than a period does. But I still have no idea how to use one. I am therefore apt to use it whenever I have a chance though this invariably leads to incorrect usage. As a result, I get the same kind of guilty pleasure using a semicolon as I do eating chocolate chip, macadamia nut cookies; They are both weaknesses. Also, I don’t think that an entire paragraph should be in parentheses. )

I began looking at the two schools of thought with new eyes. What would happen if I applied the same thinking to other self held platitudes? The liberals want to tax and spend. True, however, the conservatives want to borrow and spend. The liberals cloak themselves in feel good policies regardless of the consequences. The conservatives create policies that make themselves feel good regardless of the consequences. As for power corrupting, both are absolutely corrupted. The line between the parties blurred. They are two sides of one coin.

There is but one party in this country, The Government Party. The GP has only two goals that I can discern; constant accumulation of power, and getting reelected by any means possible so that they can continue to wield that power. Therein lies the blame. We continue to reelect these people. We all share responsibility for the GP.

It is in this understanding of the use of power that one can then make predictions of the future. Within this present framework, a flat tax or a national sales tax will never come to pass. Since when has the GP ever yielded power? The cumbersome, self contradicting tax code is enormously costly. I have read figures recently that US industry spends upwards of 5 billion man hours, and 80 billion dollars spent annually in tax compliance efforts. It would seem self evident that the GP could raise revenue and increase compliance by simplifying this code. But the IRS is the perfect tool to invasively collect as much information as possible on American citizens. Does anyone see the GP discarding this tool? I do not.

The same thinking can be applied the War On Drugs. If nothing else, history has proven that prohibition never works, as long as the demand is there to undermine it. The confiscation powers granted to the GP under the banner of the WOD are unprecedented in the history of this country, and inherently unconstitutional. Seizures of assets and property are made without due process, before the owner has been convicted of the crimes under which this confiscation has been made. The current regulation under which all cash transactions of $10,000 or more are reported to the IRS, and shared with the DEA, is perfect way for the GP to keep tabs on us all. More than 99% of all such transactions are legal and aboveboard, but we are all subject to search for the fraction of 1% that are not. Does anyone believe that the WOD is the reason for this invasiveness? This is like hunting chipmunks with an machine gun.

Now there is an effort by the Clinton administration to require all computers, telephones, and other communication equipment to carry an eavesdrop chip. This chip would be mandatory on the manufacture of all new communication equipment. Additionally, law enforcement agencies have requested, and the Supreme Court has agreed to, a relaxation of requirements that must be met for the instigation of a wiretap. This again is under the auspices of the WOD.

One can usually expect others to do what is in their own best interest, and the GP will do what’s in its own. The incredible increase of federal powers over the last four decades would have the founders of this county appalled. But we reelect these same GP representatives time and again. One might argue that, in a two party system, this is a pattern doomed to repeat itself. Was it Mark Twain, or maybe Will Rogers, who said, We get all the democracy we deserve?

We must all do what is in our own self interest. Obey all laws, pay your taxes, and never be on the wrong side of the GP. Never give them a reason to make an example of you. Buy what financial protection you can while staying within the legal framework set up by the GP. Control your own future, your own destiny. Be there for the endgame.


Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:20
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor):
Steve Puetz: You said it. As an astrologer ( among other things ) I have dispensed with a thin skin early on. But I for one will not stand by while the really significant contributors to a really great forum get trashed by trash. Ideas should be identified and contested by ideas, not personal bu**sh*t. We can police our own forum. And we will do that. TED - sooner $5000 gold than 250 Dow. And I had Sushi for dinner!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:13
TED @blindasabat>(@blindasabat):
Nailz: Sorry...scrolled back and see ya got it...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:11
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
It's already in the address book!....Did ya get the map?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:09
STEVE PUETZ.....You have been coming to this site about a week and you are already hooked....WHEW !!!!You are in trouble !!! Wait until you have to be without your computer for a few days......MAJOR WITHDRAWALS!!! By the way, will you spell out your name phonetically...the Steve part I can handle, it's the other one I can't decide on.....THANKS...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:07
Steve Puetz @ predictions of Dow 250>(@ predictions of Dow 250):
BW: Good posting at 14:39. We all become so accustomed to thinking that current market prices acurately reflecting fair-valued prices, that it's easy to skip historical valuation norms. In addition to dividend yields, book-value is another good measure. Today, the book-value for the Dow Industrials is 1337. That's no typo, see today's Barron's, page MW103, column 4. The book-value is a close approximation of the eqity the companies in the Dow have in their businesses. This valuation method of measuring stock prices has worked well, up until the mania of the 1980s and 1990s took hold.

Eventually, I assume stocks will fall back toward their book value -- they always have in the past. But, in a bear market, stock often under-shoot book-value. If they do this time, something below 1337 seems likely. For now, I'm sticking with my Dow 300 prediction. BW, you're still more bearish than me, but not by much!!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:58
nailz TED.......>(TED.......):
TED.....All those years of not eating fish has caused your eyes to go bad !!!!! Go set a few lobster traps before I get there. I can eat 5 pound and a quarters........It is an L but a non-capital one....Glad your wife can see....Get her to put my address in your address book and you won't have to look it up every time.....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:55
Steve Puetz @ gratitude toward others on Kitco >(@ gratitude toward others on Kitco ):
Good job!!! -- Strad Master ( your reply ) , Mike Sheller, and More Gold!!! Strad, your crybabies title made me laugh. One thing I have found, the people on Kitco generally have a good sense of humor. In addition, there's lots of good debate along the way.

Over the years, I've become hardened to the verbal-attacks like the one from Lurker 007. Most of the people on Kitco can look at both sides, not being offended and making personal attacks. I try desperately hard to avoid making personal attacks when I disagree with someone -- not just on Kitco, but in everyday life. However, I'm not afraid to diagnose, criticize, and attack IDEAS if I see the logic or reasoning flawed.

I can change my viewpoint, and I frequently do. However, personal attacks have never been the vehicle for changing my mind. To change my mind, I need good REASONS and good LOGIC.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:52
George S. Cole historical analogies>(historical analogies):
Bernie: You also have a strong historical sense. Yes it would be unusual for three such events to occur within a few months of each other. But the 1973-75 bear market ended at about the same time that President Nixon was forced to resign and the U.S. had to leave Vietnam So there are precedents.

RLM: This whole stock market boom has been based on disinflation and a steady swing to the political right. Wholesale prices have fallen for 5 consecutive months; is this not disinflation or possibly even deflation. Leeb is arguing ( correctly in my opinion ) that the ability of the system to keep financial markets booming by ever greater cost compression is coming to an end. Politicians will have to go for growth if they are to stay in office. And this has major investment implications -- positive for inflation hedges and small cap stocks, but negative for the blue chip growth stocks that are now so popular.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:46
Does anyone remember this speech? I'll give you hint, use your browsers search function and look for 'exuberance'..... Something about a cross of gold in there to. :- )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:45
Crystal Ball.... Got you info and I thank you....Will get it to work...Just in from helping son with maintenance and tune up on his vehicle...It was a 4 beer job with some frustrations and needless to say my first attempt at the site you gave me failed. Saved it and will try later....TED.....Got it !!!!!Fantastic !!!!Wish I could be there,,,You have incoming !!! DUCK !!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:44
Steve Puetz @ criticism regarding global banking>(@ criticism regarding global banking):
Lurker 007: It seems you don't take too kindly to my work. However, the brewing trouble with banks around the world was not my work -- but I wish it was. Rather, it was an exact quote of a May 7th Wall Street Journal front-page story. Go to your local library and look it up.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:41
Duncan TO: John Disney>(TO: John Disney):
John - do you have any idea why Joel dropped 30cents ( nearly 10% )
on Friday? Thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:38
Byron @ Sunday At The Library (Short Hours)>(@ Sunday At The Library (Short Hours)):
Earl: Those inflation adjusted charts can be found at ...Scroll down and click on charts. At the chart page you need to go to near the bottom to find the inflation adjusted chart. LOL.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:23
Jack Stop Dreaming>(Stop Dreaming):

With a 250 Dow, who would have the money for $5000 gold?
Better have food and shelter and the means to protect it.
Gold at $600 to $1000 is the best bet, until they come to
their senses.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:23
RLM: I know your question was addressed not to me but to George Cole, but the US has tolerated about as much disinflation since 1981 as it politically can. In Japan there was a great deal of personal savings to help weather the dinflationary storm. Here we have the government bailout of everything mentality. Without handouts there would simply be a revolution bloodier than most. The enormous debt service requirement HAS kept things under control, but it was unable to create true deflation despite its enormity. if rubin loses control of the situation, we will have massive inflation once more.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:16
TED @politicalsystem>(@politicalsystem):
It sure is bankrupt...Time fer din din...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:13
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: Thanks to my should get the map of where all the GOLD is buried...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:13
BW: Yer full of good stuff today. Just loved your 16:06 on the K-rands. Yes indeedy, trust your legal system. The protector of all of our liberties. As long as it doesn't hurt the big money. ... That BTW is the flaw in any discussion of tax reformation. The middle class and the poor are totally unrepresented in such discussions. Better to protect yourself as best you can forget about the political system. It's BANKRUPT.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 18:09
TED @excusemyhumor>(@excusemyhumor):
I'm extremly sorry but I don't think DOW 250 or Gold 5,000 is REALISTIC!
If either one of these happens,you are all in trouble....It seems the higher the Dow goes the more the resentment grows towards those who made the correct call and MADE money in the stock market...Let's get REAL!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 17:59
BW @14:39: If you would take the time to expand on that thought, I would appreciate it. ie, debt vs ultimate DOW low. It sounds original and intriguing.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 17:54
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: Am tryin to send you a map of Scaterie Island that a one or i at the beginning of your e-mail address?...I keep gettin em returned

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 17:51
TED @5,000gold>(@5,000gold):
5,000 dollar gold: HAHAHAHAHA

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 17:48
Lurker 007: You have accomplished something no one else has been able to achieve. Until now. ..... Over many months, Herr Strad Meister has been our paragon of gentlemanly deportment. Faced, countless times, with moments of emotional stress, interpersonal bickering and unseemly behavior, The Strad has always provided the oil needed to calm troubled waters. Until now. Somehow, you have managed to irritate a true gentleman. It's a skill few possess. Burnish it, if you must, but please do it elsewhere. We enjoy Herr Strad Meister like his oldself.

As for Herr Vronsky; well, we all know his hidden agenda. Perhaps that is what is irritating you. You are not party to it. But we are and that is all that matters. Given enough time in your personal praying chamber, in sober contemplation of your navel, you may too. In the meantime ......

Consider it only a suggestion but ..... I think I hear your friends calling. Oooooh Lurker007. Please follow us.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 17:11
Tortfeasor Many thanks>(Many thanks):
Thanks WW and Ron for the excellent info as to how to pursue my commodities claim against my broker.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:49
bw Re: panda, tax>(Re: panda, tax):
panda: Sounds good to me. I like the pain part. Maybe it should be required to pay in pennies, in person! It could work if we were honest. Honest about what gov can do, should do and is doing now.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:40
panda @tax.revolt!>(@tax.revolt!):
bw -- regarding your 13:00, my point exactly! Who can save 50% of their income per year?

Bernie --regarding your 15:18, NO VAT! The government gets theirs at the end of the year! One lump sum! See, I can engineer a good tax program too! :- ) ) I want EVERBODY to see the TOTAL amount going to Uncle Sugar! I want the 'contributors' to feel the pain that Uncle Sugar says he feels for us! I want the pain to be sharp and searing, so that the 'payers' will start to ask some pretty tough questions of themselves as well as Uncle Sugar. I want the tax to be flat! I want no exceptions to it! If you make $10,000/year then fork over $1,000. If some large corporation makes 30,000,000,000, then fork over $3,000,000,000 at the end of the year. Oh, one other point, THE MONEY GETS TAXED ONCE! None of this, the company is taxed, then the dividend is taxed, then the sales tax that you pay for something that you bought with your dividend check...... Well, that's my simplistic idea. It could never work, but what the heck! :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:19
Bernie History>(History):
George S. yours of 12:24....If you are saying we are about to experience a swing back to the left, I agree, lets hope it is not a radical swing.

I enjoy your posts and your sense of history in almost all of them. I have an observation, would like your comments.

I see three immense historical events converging on the same time frame, July and August.
1 ) One hundred and fifty six years of British rule of Hong Kong coming to an end, with Chinese troops a bit over anxious to occupy the territory.
2 ) The fate of the European Common Market being decided, possibly ending.
3 ) The US stock market reaching a bubble top and bursting.

Do you agree to assigning the word immense to these events? Am I correct in assuming it would be very unusual for all three to happen within a three month time frame; from an historical perspective?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:15
RLM Inflation/Deflation>(Inflation/Deflation):
George S. Cole...I believe you made some comments about the latest Steven Leeb book. I bought it, and am still reading it. He seems to believe that the world’s populations will be asking for “more”. This in turn will force governments to inflate rather than allow deflation. This seems to be what you are suggesting in your latest post ( left/populist leaning politicians ) .

I view Japan as leading the US. They did not, or were not able to inflate, and seem to be living through what “so far” has been a slow deflation. Why wouldn’t we do the same. Does the availability of credit mean people will borrow ( pushing on a string ) Your thoughts.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:06
bw the price of gold:>(the price of gold:):
As the cb's sell or threaten to sell yet more of our gold to accomodate the burgeoning demand, another branch of our gov is contemplating the mechanics of the coming gold confiscation. One detail to be worked out is the price to be paid to those who do their civic duty. The following true story may give an indication. In about 1986 a plane carrying about 800 insured krands crashed in mexico. The krands were worth over 400 each at the time. The insurer said since the official gov price for gold was 42? bucks that is what they would pay. The case went all the way to our supreme court. What do you think our supreme counts said? Yep 42.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 16:06
Crystal Ball 20 minute delayed XAU quotes>(20 minute delayed XAU quotes):
NAILZ--For XAU quotes ( If 20 minutes delayed is near enough to real time for you ) go to
then go to the box where it says, Enter a Stock or Index symbol here for delayed quotes and a list of options for the underlying: and enter XAU, and you will get a quote table showing at least two different months and several strike prices. For a single option quote, use the box above where it says, Enter an Option or LEAP symbol here for delayed quotes and fundamental data using the following format: period mark ( . ) + symbol + expiration month code + strike price code ( example: .xaust ) . For assistance, click here.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 15:18
Bernie VAT Tax>(VAT Tax): yours of 11:54...If you are talking about a VAT tax, it might work. But the VAT,s I have heard from Washington have exceptions when I hear exceptions, deductions... credits... deferrals, I hear tax attorneys and tax accountants rubbing their hands together. In ten years we end up with what we have now, a mess. I agree with your, No Exceptions. Collect the tax when purchase is made. Cheers.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 15:15
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):
bw: I wholeheartedly agree gold will be in the thousands of dollars ( 2400 to ? ) early into the next century ( only a few years folks ) . To be honest, I haven't put any time into trying to figure where the Dow could settle in a longterm bear. Will do that soon, or at least try. I'd go by the stress lines and resistance/supports I'd find on the chart. REIFY: Will get back to you. NAILZ, GEORGE S. COLE - Agree most definitely about coming left turn. Already evident in Europe, and they have always lead the way to the errant path. Tho I must say most of the conservatives of today are of little value to the further progress of this civilization either. The effect will be the middle and bottom against the surrounding catastrophe, rather than against the top. The top is always an easy target. What else is new? The momentum for change, itself being popul;ist will come from the mass of the people from upper middle on down. There will be nowhere yto run, nowhere to hide. Freedom lovers will be freaks once again. They will splinter off and found the seed of the new economy. I will write more about this at the Astrological Investor feature on Gold-Eagle. Get Real, Get Gold! Speaking of Gold-Eagle, and getting gold, may I say first, that Lurker007 does not even deserve a response. Having said that, I can only take my hat off ( if I wore one ) to Mr V for his very clear stand as to where he is at and what he's all about. Win, lose, or disagree, the great beauty of his site, and Kitco, is that you'll always find interesting people with an opinion and a purpose. Mr Vronsky would be the LAST person on earth I would ever accuse of a hidden agenda. As for his views being dangerous, what is Lurker007 doing at a gold chat anyhow? Duh!! The person who is dangerous is the one who lurks in the shadows, contributes nothing, and attempts to smear those who give freely and tirelessly of their talent, opinion, and courage.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 15:03
bw Re: Vronsky>(Re: Vronsky):
Professor Vronsky: Thanks for the McAlvany papers especially part VI. The fed will be the buyer of last resort for some fund sellers but this may only server to make the crash more orderly.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:58
vronsky RJ Platinum Factor>(RJ Platinum Factor):
Regular Kitco contributor, RJ, discovered an uncanny correlation between the Yen and the Yen value of Platinum. It appears to demonstrate predictive qualities. See charts in Analysis section:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:51
Bernie Super Rich>(Super Rich): yours of 11:32... I agree with your observation about a deeper meaning to the trends in taxation. We must be very cautious and suspicious of the men who have amassed wealth into the billions, they are running on ego and power which could be very good or very bad for the rest of us. Thanks for your post. Cheers and good trading.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:49
ALL........HELP............I need a near real-time site for the XAU options....Any help would be appreciated....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:39
bw Re: Mike Sheller, dow>(Re: Mike Sheller, dow):
Mike: I know 250 dow seems a little much, but the dividend method is but one way to project such a number. The question is what do we trust the numbers or our sense of euphoria. The numbers also say we are going to at least 5000 gold. It seems absurd now because we are breathing the air of the gods. In the time to come the act of purchasing a stock will seem just as absurd. Want another method? Currently the ratio of debt to stockholder equity for the s&p 500 is about 93%. You are paying dow 8000 prices to become almost a net debtor. I havent worked that one out but it could be better than 250.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:34
MoreGold @LURKER007>(@LURKER007):
So what is exactly so wrong about Vronsky providing a site to air Steve Puetz's views on Gold and the state of ( or non state ) of the international financial system.
99.9% of the people I know have most of their entire life savings invested in Stocks/Bonds, and hold absolutely NO GOLD except a puny ring on their fingers. To me, this confirms the views of many of the Gold Bulls here, and indicates that the money feeding the stock market mania has to begin drying up very soon. Remember that all pyramid schemes collapse once the new money stops flowing in and paying returns to the old money. Pyramid schemes never go down slowly, they simply collapse. How much of this analogy one can apply to the stock market, time will tell.

Steve is a super bull on precious metals, and even if he is partially right,
those investors that diversify even a modest amount of their portfolio into PM's, will be thanking their lucky stars, once the ENEVITABLE EVENTS
begin unfolding.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:31
GEORGE.....Will the populist movement in this country be Top against the middle and bottom OR middle against the top and bottom ? I see the middle class as having the greatest power in numbers of ballots at the polls. I also see them as sick and tired of supporting the lower class who pays little or no taxes. They also feel abused in that the rich can afford tax shelters they cannot....It is the middle class I see who want equality in taxation.....Yes I would call that a populist movement...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:23
Strad Master Silliness!>(Silliness!):
LURKER 007: Re your post to Nailz: So what? Vronsky has a gold-related site filled with invaluable information in addition to interesting editorial comments by a wide variety of analysts. Unlike some who have occasionally plugged their own ( subscription ) newsletters at this site it is free to visit and partake of all the information you might wish to absorb. If you don't like it - don't go there. No one forces you to use your clicker in any particular way.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:18
George S. Cole right and left>(right and left):
NAILZ: There were very few leftists in either Congress or the courts in 1929 either. These are lagging indicators. Perhaps populist would be a better word than liberal to describe the coming shift in the politcal balance of power. Not right against left, but top against middle and bottom. And with the markets as elevated as they are, it will not take of a swing towards populism to send them tumbling.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:15
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or):
Bernie - it goes something like this. The top 1% of income pays something around 40% of federal personal income tax revenues, the top 5% something
like 60% of federal personal income taxes, the top quintile maybe 80-85%
of federal personal income taxes. Federal personal income taxes forming
the majority of federal revenues, one could say that, rather than paying no taxes, the super-rich are actually buying all this government for the
rest of us peons. For which gratitude would be the appropriate sentiment to express, rather than spiteful envy.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:11
nailz TED..........>(TED..........):
HEY TED....Wait for me before you take off for Scaterie...Am bringing my White metal detector and a big tow sack to put the loot in...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:08
TED @scaterieisland>(@scaterieisland):
Nailz: Scaterie Island bekons and it's time fer some seakayaking...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:05
Strad Master>(
LURKER077: Re your posting to Vronsky: Are you kidding? Anyone who stops reading the posings here because he/she thinks some of the ideas posted are DANGEROUS is an idiot! Most ADULTS I know are quite capable of dismissing an idea they don't agree with and passing on to the next posting. I do it all the time. Tell your friends to try it sometime. It might help build their character. They might even learn something from soimeone they disagree with! Give me a break...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:05
Lurker007 @nailz>(@nailz):
His not so well hidden agenda is to PLUG his OWN site!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:01
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: Space-ship coming yer way...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 14:01
LURKER 007....Perhaps you would be so kind as expose VRONSKY's hidden agenda to the rest of us. I have been a regular for some time, and here I am just thinking that VRONSKY's hidden agenda is to promote his web site. Guess that just goes to show that there must be some sinister plot behind everything ( or maybe NOT ) .

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:53
ALL.... The Supreme Court makes the final decisions that really turn the liberal or conservative tide in the US...The are appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate. Supreme court justices usually stay on the bench for many years ( life ) , and our current court has been stacked to the hilt with conservatives...Now true enough the Clinton election shows a move to the left here, but how long until we get a liberal Supreme Court? We don't even have a liberal senate to approve one liberal justice now. We are 3 two year elections away from having a liberal senate ( if then ) . Then how long to replace the Supreme Court I hope I don't have to wait for a big move to the left for my metals holdings to move up !!!!!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:53
Ron in Sack-o-tomatoes>(in Sack-o-tomatoes):
Insider: I fear you might be a provocateur.

All: After watching the Dow all week, I *still* apparently haven't gotten my fill of fantasy; I'm off to the movies.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:48
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: Got yer message and check for an answer in ten minutes or so...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:42
TED @nearscaterieisland>(@nearscaterieisland):
Nailz: I'll keep an eye out.....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:41
Lurker007 @vronsky>(@vronsky):
Vronsky ( 12:20 ) I know many who have stopped checking in at Kitco because they think your views are DANGEROUS and this post, plugging Puetz is a prime example of some of your BIASED and simple-minded thinking and further exposes your hidden agenda!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:33
nailz ETREMES !!!!!>(ETREMES !!!!!):
COME ON GUYS....Let's not all predict extremes like 100,000 or 250 DOW... Let's keep the cycles within the extremes, but keep them churning...HEY TED...You have incoming....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:31
Sorry, but if I gave away my sources I would not be an insider.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:30
TED @250DOW>(@250DOW):

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:26
TED @bob>(@bob):
Bob ( 11:28 ) NO!...on your other point: I think Canadians outside of Nova Scotia, DO care about Nova Scotian politics because THEY are paying their bills.....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 13:00
bw Re: panda, who>(Re: panda, who):
Panda: Believe it or not until the 1950's everyone saved his taxes up and paid them once a year. Seemed like the thing to do and the tax was so little ( in relation to today ) that it was not hard to do. When they started withholding everyone thought it portended nothing good ( boy were we right on that ) . Of course before that most people paid NO federal income taxes. That was for the rich ( but that is another story ) . My theory on withholding was that the yearly tax total was getting so big you felt it was a poor purchase when you sent in the money. My brother felt it was because the relatively poorer people who were being taxed more heavily each year, were having trouble saving the money. Some felt that by making it easier and more convenient they could keep jacking up the rate of real taxes. I guess our masters did know best. Who can save 50% of his earnings?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:54
With more than $5 billion pouring into the mutual fund reservoir weekly, the Dam will burst. See June 16, 1997 “The Coming ‘RUN’ on Mutual Funds.”:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:38
Mike Sheller;-

Seem to agree with your posting on the outlook on bonds and paper near term, many chart look up to me, weird as that may sound at this time.
However so do gold stocks many are making significant basing patterns for and up move, maybe along with paper.

Please contact me email, about more personal matters- growing up in N.Y.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:31
Ron Flat Tax>(Flat Tax):
Panda: Double amen to the 10% flat tax. I'd like to see 10% also cover all state and local revenue requirments, too, right down to fees like those imposed for driver's licenses. All pigs should feed at the same trough! That way everyone knows exactly how much they are giving to the oinkers. Oh, well. We can dream, can't we? And if we're discreet about it, we won't be taxed for it ( the lottery is a dream tax, after all ) . I think I saw in Friday's WSJ that total US revenue take as a percentage of GDP, exceeds that in communist China!!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:25
Insider @11:35: ... 50,000 open buy orders? At market? ...... From your mouth to God's ear....... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:24
George S. Cole lefty and right>(lefty and right):
BERNIE: History shows that the politcal pendulum always swings from left to right and back again. The excesses of the rich make periodic swings to the left inevitable. Wasn't Russian communism a reaction to the truly gross excesses of the Tsars? And the more pendulum swings in one direction, the sharper the move in the opposite direction when the tide turns. Just like markets -- the bigger and longer the bull, the bigger and longer the ensuing bear. The impending swing to the left will be very bad for paper, but very good for gold.

For those who doubt this can happen look back to the 1920s. A sharp swing to the right, booming stock markets, low inflation, tax cuts for the rich, etc. And look what followed!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:20
vronsky BUMBLING BANKS From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria>(BUMBLING BANKS From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria):
BUMBLING BANKS From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria”
Super Bear STEVE PUETZ LETTER includes Bank of China & India among host of other tottering banks - & western world financial system’s Ponzi Scheme may topple markets. 5/27/97 report:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:18
BW @9:54: while I don't know enough about the future to share your unbridled enthusiasm for the numbers, I do have a growing sense that just maybe, the leveraged approach, that worked so well in the past, may turn out to be a fools game this time. It's a personal feeling that has been growing in intensity of late. ..... For lack of a definitive reason to explain my thoughts, I always return to the same question: How can the most damage be done to the most people, in any given situation? The game is simply not structured for the many to prosper. PMs are no exception.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:14
Steve Puetz @ insanity>(@ insanity):
Ron: Amen. I've already taken cover. Time to cook chicken on the grill. Will be back to Kitco-chat later today, to get updates. I fully expect exciting and volitile markets this coming week. Won't tell ya which direction, though.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:13
Venerable veteran analyst sees bullish signals on Gold Indicators. Also, his charts paint positive platinum picture. He likes Stillwater, N.A. Palladium & Franco-Nevada. RELOAD at Editorials page:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:09
Steve Puetz @ skeptic>(@ skeptic):
Insider: Give me your sources for that 50,000 lot Comex Gold buy order!!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:04
Steve Puetz @ apolagy to BW>(@ apolagy to BW):
BW: Sorry, I gave credit to Bernie, for for Dow 250 prediction.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:03
Steve Puetz @ Dow 250>(@ Dow 250):
Bernie: I can't believe it. I've found someone more bearish than I am. I've been predicting Dow 300 for the entire decade -- giving the exact reasoning you have given. But you have under-cut me by 50 Dow points. I may have to re-examine my previous calculations.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 12:02
Mike Sheller Back to the Bible>(Back to the Bible):
PANDA - Amen to your lithe Tithe of 10%. The Lord would approve, and so would my wallet. RON - Amen as well to the Yardeni of Eden. It is indeed a chartmeister's Heaven.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:59
Steve Puetz Tax the super-rich>(Tax the super-rich):
Bernie: Even if I agreed with you, which I don't, that the super-rich should be heavily taxed, it wouldn't work. They would flee the country. It's already happening to a certain extent. There are lots of countries around the world that welcome the super-rich and the capital they bring with them. Taxing wealth always works in favor of pushing desperately needed capital our of the country and into overseas coffers.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:57
Mike Sheller DownDow (Down, Down, Doobie Doobie)>(DownDow (Down, Down, Doobie Doobie)):
bw: That 250 Dow seems a BIT overdone. That's like saying the stock market will simply disappear. 1929-33 saw a 90% decline. 1975 bottomed at around 50%, with dividend yeilds of around 6-9% ( going by memory here, don't quote me ) . I think we could be conservative and refigure your scenario at a dividend yeild of 11-12%. This is what I see the Dow Utilities Average yeilding in a few years, based on the price chart channel it seems to be in the process of setting up. So I'm being generous with stocks here. Granted, an out and out deflation would be quite savaging to this bull, but then wouldn't you think dividends would evaporate along with other forms of wealth.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:55
Steve Puetz Next bull market in gold>(Next bull market in gold):
Bob M @ bitterroot: While gold investors are mostly discouraged now, once conditions change, I believe most will regain their confidence, and say things like: I told you so. Some will sell out early, but while the financial markets collapse, there will be no alternative but gold and silver. Most will hold what they have, and probably buy more.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:54
panda @>(@):
TED -- Will get back to ya.

Bernie -- How about something as old as the Bible, an absolute, no excuses, flat tax of ten percent. Never to be raised or lowered, and the government MUST live within that revenue stream PERIOD. No exceptions. Welfare, unemployment ( they already got that ) , SSI, everything! That way everyone would know where they stand with regards to the tax man, no tax shelters, or tax avoidence. One simple form, how much income did you have last year? OK, multiply by 0.1 and send us that amount! BTW, there would be no with holdings from income! So EVERYONE knows how much they are paying and must put that amount aside! OK, off my soapbox and going back to reality.

Naah panda, would never work! Who would put the tax money aside for the whole year?


Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:50
Steve Puetz Event to start a stock market crash>(Event to start a stock market crash):
Panda: Go to your local library and read the front page of the May 7th Wall Street Journal. The article concludes that a global banking crisis is brewing. It says that banks are in trouble everywhere -- Japan, China, Tiger countries, South America, India, ..... If any one of these worsen, they could trigger the implosion.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:48
Ron Dow Insanity>(Dow Insanity):
To all my fellow goldbugs squirming around here in the Dow's scree: Take cover, boys! Ain't no way those Wall Street bulls can save themselves with those Charmin parachutes of theirs. A chartist's paradise:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:35
I just heard over my wire sources that there are 50,000 open buy orders
at the market for August gold COMEX. There must be something afoot!
Watch out Monday morning!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:32
bw Re: Bernie,Tax>(Re: Bernie,Tax):
Bernie: I concur with your anger over the distribution of the tax burden between individuals and corporations. I have been meaning to post a like if less detailed piece. Thanks. I should first say all taxes should be greatly reduced for all. My numbers are not quite as bad as yours but they still show about a three fold increase in the individual burden in relation to that of corporations. Aside from the unfairness of it, I think something deeper is revealed here, like who is running this great democratic country. And to what purpose.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:29
Steve Puetz>(
Earl: Your 1:41 posting was exactly the way I was going to respond to RJ's 1:10. You beat me to it only because I ocassionally sleep. As long as monetary demand for gold is weak, CBs can easily push it down. During the 1970s, when monetary demand was stong, over 200 million ounces of Central Bank gold sales could not knock down the price. Private concerns were more than happy to get cheap CB gold. It will take a reversal of the bull market in stocks to revive monetary demand for the precious metals. Then it won't matter how much they sell.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:28
Bob @...Ted, do policticians have common sense ?>(@...Ted, do policticians have common sense ?):

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 11:13
bw Re: Mike Sheller>(Re: Mike Sheller):
Mike: The numbers just sound impressive to me. I happen to think they are also possible.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:58
TED @bob>(@bob):
Bob ( 10:54 ) Rhodes scholar does not =COMMON SENSE...I know plenty of Harvard grad's who can't think their way out of a paper bag...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:54
Bob @...Bob Rae was Rhodes scholar...for what its worth>(@...Bob Rae was Rhodes scholar...for what its worth):
TED: The only people interested in Nova Scotia Politics are Nova Scotians.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:50
Bob @...Math ?>(@...Math ?):
bw: What math are you using ?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:49
TED @BW>(@BW):
BW: I'm howling....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:45
bw How low dow:>(How low dow:):
Projection of possible coming lows in the dow always draws howls. But lets look at the math. Lets give the dow some breathing room and assume it does go to 10,000. The current dividend yield is about 1.6%. This is occurring in the euphoria of the advance. In the funk of the coming depression the dividend yield will probably exceed the 16% it yielded in 1932. That would put the dow at 1000 with no dividend cuts. I think we can assume at least a 75% dividend cut. This projects the low on the dow at 250 points. Personaly I think it will go lower.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:27
Bernie The Super Rich and Gold>(The Super Rich and Gold):
Maxt..Re yours of Fri Jun 13 05:23.....Sorry for the delay in answering
your thoughtful and interesting post.

After re-reading your post I wonder if there is a misunderstaning about who I am referring to when I use the term super rich. Please let me try to explain myself.

I love my country ( USA ) it has evolved into the best and fairest, most free
system man has yet conceived. But I fear it is in danger.

Please consider for a moment that, our economy has evolved into two
tiers, the first you described most eloquently in your post. The second tier
is the one I am talking about. For the most part this second tier is made
up of the super rich who control the largest corporations in our country.
If you want to put numbers to them, a person with a net worth over 100
million who control the 2000 largest corporations in the US.

I have no problem with anyone having as much money as they can get or
corporations being as rich and big as they can.

I do have a problem when they start abusing our system by not paying
their taxes and by not being loyal to the system and people who made
them rich.

Let me give you an insight into their world by way of Forbes Magazine.
Every year Forbes lists the 400 richest Americans. Below is a footnote to
that article which describes how they evaluate wealth.

Since wealth abroad is sometimes held in complicated ways designed to
retain control or bypass various taxing authorities, ( IRS and State ) we
count property owned if it is involved in obvious devices for ownership,
like family holding companies, or cross-ownership, and sometimes less
obvious ones, like certain foundations designed merely for tax avoidance.

I can not get over how blatant and obvious the scandal is. They can
publish how they are evading taxes. I guess the IRS does not read Forbes.

To give you an indication of how this is escalating and how these tax
evaders are building more and more wealth, consider these stats: The
proportion of Federal Income tax derived from Corporate income tax as
declined steadily, 32% in 1952; to 23% in 1960; to 17% in 1970; to 9% in
1985 ( 1985 is the last year I can find stats on ) I bet it is below 5% now.

I contend the small guy, who might be making $200,000 a year and
corporations making ten million a year, for example, are for the most part
paying their share while the super rich are blatantly evading. Example
GM sold its subsidiary Hughes and evaded 3 billion in taxes. They did
not pay a dime on their capital gain. No wonder the super rich are going
to be super-super rich very soon.

I can go on and on about the scandalous lost tax revenue, one of the most obvious is the leveraged buyout where interest expense is used as a
corporate deduction to evade taxes.

The super rich have been escalating this practice over the last ten years,
and are becoming the super, super rich. How much would your net worth
be if you had not paid taxes for the last ten years?

You could say, well they are not breaking any laws or if they are the
laws are so grey......of course they are not-they have paid politicians to
change the laws or make them so grey or so confusing that they are not

Now to the scary part, the part that could jeopardize the pursuit of
happiness we have been enjoying in this country. And also why this is
being posted on Kitco. You can fool some of the people some of the
time, but not all of the people all of the time. The average Joe and the
average corporation is starting to figure out who is not paying their fair
share! This will soon be felt by way of the ballet box. If something does
not change it could be a very, very liberal change...... so hang onto your

The super rich for the most part are a very egotistical, arrogant and
competitive lot, they do not want to give an inch. I for one am going to be biting at their behind to pay their fair share to avoid this very liberal
disruptive outcome.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:26
Bob M>(
Good morning. Does anyone have an opinion on what people who have been buried in gold since 1980, will affect the market in the next price rise as they bail out to recoup their losses. It seems to me like just about everyone holding physical gold these days has lost money ( not including interest if money would have stayed in bank ) except the few who bougt below $300. Any ideas gentlemen. Thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:22
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 13, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 13, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:12
Mike Sheller 5>(5):
bw: Slap me five! I found your 5 scenario very intriguing. Is this intuitive or based on any sort of systematic or phenomenal analysis? Just curious. The image does resonate in my soul as possible, attainable, and, of course, desireable. Silver spike panics do tend to progress in startling geometric progressions of time, space, and price. In other words, AWESOME. Looking forward to a more moderate one in July/August.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 10:05
WW @New England>(@New England):
TORT:I have had some experience in the commodities/securities law areas. You need to tell the brokerage firm that you will file a complaint with the CFTC in Washington DC to have your claim heard and arbitrated. Further write ( or threaten to write a letter ) to the NFA in Chicago referencing the complaint. ( you might also request any findings re the firm or its employees from the NFA and CFTC for problems such as yours ) Demand all documentation regarding the transactions ie time & sales reports from the mkts matching the times your orders were time stamped per the brokerage order entry. If they record orders over the phone obtain documentation re the time you placed the order with the hard copy records. Tell them if they dont provide this information within a week you will file a pleading to initiate procedures for remedial action.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 09:57
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes):
Hi, Tort: Try the enforcement link at . Also, the Nat'l Futures Assn has some useful info about arbitration at . I like the NFAs disciplinary information access line ( DIAL ) where they'll let you know if a broker has a disciplinary history. DIAL won't help you with your current problems, but it'll be useful when it comes time to pick your next broker. It saved me once from going with a guy who had an abominable history. At minimum, any broker you're considering opening an acct with should be registered with the CFTC, and be a member of the NFA, or so the boilerplate goes. Both agencies will cooperate with you and help you determine if a broker meets at least those requirements.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 09:57
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
For all you Canucks,here's a sick joke...In last poll for Nova Scotia premier,the results are: NDP 33% Tory 28% Liberal 26%....NDP leader,Robert Chisolm, makes Bob Rae look like a rocket-scientist....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 09:54
bw Silver price increases per unit time:>(Silver price increases per unit time:):
Earl: I have been making this prediction for many years and of course it has yet to come true. Although we did get a foretaste in 1980. I would say each 1000 points up on the dow increases the odds in favor of it occurring.

Silver is currently selling for about 5.00 per ounce. A time is coming when it will increase 5.00 in price in a year. It will increase 5.00 in a month. It will increase 5.00 ( we will skip a few intervals here ) a minute. And lastly the price of silver will increase in price five dollars per ounce in less than one second ( although this may only be the bid price ) . All these periods probably will occur in the same year but need not be unique. It is only going to happen perhaps once in our life time and a wait is required. Is it not a good deal to buy a real asset money, that is also insurance and that is also an investment with these kinds of speculative possibilities?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 09:51
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
mornin Nailz: Did ya get me re-mail...strange things happening with the puter as my re-mail bounced back into my machine....but showed up as bein sent....Beautiful day on the North Atlantic ocean!...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 09:07
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: Changing yer own oil....good man!...Dec=35.875 ( up .75 Friday ) ....
I think an event in Asia has more potential to disrupt the stock market euphoria....Hang Seng at record highs with d-day looming...Thai market ( SET ) down 60% this year alone...Political uncertainty in Indonesia
....Corruption in Malaysia ( thanks JIN ) ....friction between Japan+China...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:57
TED @hangseng>(@hangseng):
17 days to go for Hong Kong.....If Hang Seng bubble bursts alot of that money could go for the gold...Mornin Panda: What's your take on stox market and the long bond

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:56
panda @>(@):
Earl -- Regarding INTC on the weekly; Talk about a bearish engulfing candle! Not to mention the double top also. The last time that a similar pattern emerged was in June and November 1995 for the tops. Same pattern this time except the time is slightly shorter, February to May/June. Four months as opposed to five months last time. Perhaps the tiff between DEC and INTC will have more profound effects than many believe. INTC is almost 20% of the SOX index and a good piece of the NDX. If we start to 'roll over' here, can the rest of the major indexes be that far behind?

This lends credibility to Steve Peutzs' deflation scenario. I.E., a loss of 'wealth' effect. Here's a scary thought, what if INTC is putting a HUGE head and shoulders pattern here. What is the downside target? $60 - $80 per share from $144.74? OUCH! Nah, that could never happen! What was DECs high? $190 something, and now it's trading at ?.

The problem here, for me anyways, is that this won't help gold. People will either eat their losses or try to hang on to 'get even'. Either way, money evaporates for the purchase of anything, let alone gold. I think we need a 'stupid' event. Something that tanks the markets, but in such a way, that it causes monetary stability fear also. Mexico anyone? Elections there are coming in July, and the Mexican Peso is again 'overvalued' ( what ever that means in relation to other currencies ) , pressumably for the election. It would be just the spice to add to this cauldron of a high flying market, rallying bonds, and whooops! Another currency problem! Damn, I thought they fixed those currency thingees! :- ) )

Howdy TED! Nice morning here, cool with bright sunshine! Got your Canadian air conditioning just in time. :- )

BBL, got to do some self sufficient chores, like change the oil in the vehicle. :- ( (

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:48
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller):
Mike Sheller: Agree with you on the potential bond break-out and if it happens, paper will continue to soar!....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:45
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort ( 8:08 ) Re-broker: Deep six em.....Re-joke: hahahaha....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:23
panda @>(@):
Mike Sheller -- You may get your chance to watch the bonds 'dance' next week. Starting Tuesday, I think. We just need a week or two more of weak economic numbers to finish out the bond rally. Then we can see the delayed 'strong' economic numbers for the next couple of months! :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 08:08
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Happy Father's Day to all. I need to quit reading this material and give him a call. I have written in earlier posts about getting screwed royally ( without a crown even ) by my commodities broker. I faxed him a letter Friday of my grievances regarding the platinum trade where the market went down, I went short and still supposedly lost two-thirds of my invesment. I received no response. I am going to fax the president of the company in the morning. If I get no response I will complain elsewhere. Do any of you have any idea where to take these matters short of going to court? But enough about the grimness of my investment experience I post the following in good humor.

A man placed some flowers on the grave of his departed
mother and started back for his car, parked on the cemetery
road. His attention was diverted to a man kneeling at a grave.
The man seemed to be praying with profound intensity, and
kept repeating, Why did you die? Why did you die?
The first man approached him and said, Sir, I don't want to
interfere with your private grief, but this demonstration of hurt
and pain is more than I've ever seen before. For whom do
you mourn so deeply? Your Child? A parent? Who, may I
ask, lies in that grave?
The mourner answered, My wife's first husband! ... Why
did you die? Why did you die?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 07:48
Mike Sheller Sunday Morning @the Charts>(Sunday Morning @the Charts):
The Sunday Morning Chart perusal brings the following significant updates: BONDS - perhaps more important than stock price behavior from a technical point of view, the 30 year Bond is poised to challenge 113 this coming week. If it knifes thru this level, it will break out of a Rhino triangle, a pattern which yeilds reliable continued momentum at breakouts. You could teach a kid to trade Rhinos. Kids are very visual, and can pick up the ears and horn very quickly. In fact, the way I've been trading lately, I think I'll start hanging around the schoolyard with a chart book under my trench coat. ( Psst, hey kid, wanna find a Rhino for me? ) Any how, tho I too feel this stock market is in La La Land, I would have to conclude that if the Long Bond takes out 113, we are going up significantly on paper, and down surprisingly on rates. The apex of this triangle occurs a YEAR from now! If can't IMAGINE a paper bull of a solid year, so let's say there's another 3 - 5 months rising paper at this breakout. I'll leave it to everyone to visualize the charts of the stock market blowoff this could represent. If 113 proves to be the containment in this triangle for bonds, then look for a price reversal after a few days of banging up against resistance. Support for a reversal comes in at 106. If 106 is breached on the downside, then we could be in for a bond collapse that would indeed, reasonably, terminate a year from now at the triangle apex. Everyone following this? This is really important. We have been thinking all along we are in the last stages of the market cycle, but we have not yet encountered a phase where all 3 assets, bonds, stox & gold, are RISING. This may be the last chance to observe that.
GOLD- The bad news is that price was stagnant last week, stochastics have turned down but are not sufficiently depressed yet, and the call options are still running merrily ahead of puts. The good news is that the upside breakout level, 346 basis August, is now a bit lower in this current configuration ( also a triangle ) than a week or two ago ( was 348 ) . Price it at lower end of triangulated support, around 342 basis August. Much below 342 is very dangerous here. Price has been driven to the end of a short funnel. Let us hold our breaths and watch the bonds this week! Finally, last but not least, the magnificent trine ( 120 degree supporting angle ) that NYSE Sun has been receiving from Neptune ( once in a lifetime astrological aspect, and very powerful long-term move ) will retrograde to the exact degree one more time in, you guessed it, OCTOBER of this year. Then Neptune goes direct and this magnificent underpinning of the bull market starts to break up. So...I guess I'm saying that, as amazing as it sounds, there is room for a final thrust to this stock advance that would boggle the mind of bull and bear alike. If bonds can rise for the next six months, it is not inconceivable that stocks could continue into a top for several months after that. Watch for the end-game brief explosion of obscure small caps for the exit sign.
PS- My NYSE Balcony Indicator is getting overbought. I don't think they can get any more grinning exchange officials on that parapet at gavel time.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 07:10
George S. Cole>(
POLARBEAR: Let's face it; the buy the dips strategy has been extremely successful over the past few years. The overwhelming mass of investors will continue to follow this stategy until it fails. And then it will be too late.

BTW, I do expect it to fail badly the next time it is tried -- probably this fall. Once the market corrects and does not quickly rebound to new highs, then the fun will begin in earnest as a frightened public starts to liquidate their mutual funds. And there will be few buyers except at much lower prices.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 06:49
What If! About the CB's Selling their Gold>(About the CB's Selling their Gold):

What if Ted Butler's estimates about the Gold Loans were
seriously underestimated, lets say to the extent of
making Steve Puetz's 1996 estimate of gold holdings at
500 million ounces for the CB's and 4135 million ounces
for private stocks.
Now, as Earl described, using a little chin music and
some well reported Gold Sales, they drive the gold price
down to a very low price.
Then they go to those they made the loans to, tell them
to keep it quiet, but they want their gold back, at half
the spot price. They also buy as much gold as possible at
spot and really increase their holding's.
They would probably have to keep the financials up to do
this and I think they are presently doing a good job.
In the end result they will have a happy public and solid
gold reserves. Think about it?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 06:44
George S. Cole misc.>(misc.):
GLENN: As always your insights are respected and appreciated.

Steve Puetz; Thanks for the info on gold ownership by CBs and the private sector!

Milhouse: We are on the same wavelength. The gold market will not be able to revive in a major way until private investor demand picks up a lot from its current depressed level. Until then the CBs will have no trouble keeping the price down.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 06:15
POLARBEAR what are these guys smokin'@7782dow>(what are these guys smokin'@7782dow):

Al Goldman, technical analyst at A.G. Edwards:

We could certainly get a 2 percent to 4 percent correction anytime, but if we do, it would just be a normal pause.

Jack Baker, head of block trading at Furman Selz, agreed that a 200- or 300-point correction might be in the offing, but added that such a move would be just another buying opportunity.


Let me get this straight--The dow goes up 4.66% in one week, its frothiest week on record, and these gurus think that 7500 is a good buying point?

VRONSKY, we sure could use a Blue Sky stanza!!!!!!!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 05:17
Bernatz de Ventadorn chop@zee neck>(chop@zee neck):
For Messiours Ted and Earl and RJ
Mah blood she get so HOT when we speak of zee
revolutions and chop up zee kings an zee tings lak
zat my dam. Woo ----- mah head she speens arround.
Ha ha
When do we begin zee march

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:55
TED @akaMDG>(@akaMDG):
Violence begets violence....Up against the wall....hahahaha...Night Earl!
It's 2:57 on the East coast...nite Tarnished.....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:41
RJ: The equation will only remain valid so long as demand remains low. If anything is allowed to happen to suddenly boost demand, the monetary authorities will be powerless to stop it. Now it is possible to control the price with nothing more than 'chin music'. .... Best gold strategy? Sit back and relax until the volume picks up. Until then its hopeless.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:33
cherokee @outer-limits>(@outer-limits):
silver is poised to make a good jump this up-coming week.
467 is an excellent buying point.
soy oil is looking good too.
what'cha gonna do?

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:33
RJ: Violent natures must demand similar expression. You beat me to the quote.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:31
RJ: I just love it when you talk violent. From Bill and Hilliary's era: UP against the wall ------ . .... Now, if Bernatz will set aside his amazing dirt machine for a moment and wheel out the company guillotine, we can proceed. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:18
Megalomaniacal Demi-God @RJreynolds>(@RJreynolds):
RJ: Up against the wall dude....

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:10
RJ CBs>(CBs):
Steve Puetz - It's not how much the CBs sell, it's when they choose to sell. I have a firm belief that over $400 is too high for CBs. Only a very powerful rally can break through that barrier for long. Remember the equation they want to sell to the world: SG=SC. Stable gold equals stable currency. This is the mantra these self inflated, megalomaniacal demi-gods chant to themselves every morning just after they kick the dog, and just before they lower steel toed boots on their fellow man. There will be little forgiveness for these wretched souls as they are sure to be the first up against the wall when the revolution comes.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 01:03
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre):
Vieserre: Took a wild ride on platinum's back many years ago and am kicking myself that I didn't jump back on at the start of the year, when I was considering the funds ain't available.....all tied up in ABX...Platinum+Palladium still sound like a good bet!

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:56
Vieserre home>(home):
Steve: Thanks for the post on CB gold - it confirms my thinking

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:48
Vieserre home>(home):
This report, which recently came in my mail, may be of interest:

NYMEX palladium ended higher again Friday as the physical platinum
group metals market continued to suffer an acute shortage of metal,
but COMEX gold and silver ended lower, with the latest U.S.
economic data showing inflation remains no threat to investors. I
like the PGM group and it may be time to get long again on any
further dips, depending on news on Russian exports, said Scott
Meyers, an analyst with Pioneer Futures here.

Spot platinum prices are up about 50 pct this year and palladium
prices have doubled, due to the suspension of Russian exports for
five months. Russia supplies about 20 pct of the world's platinum
and 60 pct of its palladium. Russian PGM exports are expected to
resume in late June.

But reports Friday indicated the officially secret Russian export
quota for platinum in 1997 would be about 700,00 ounces ( 22
tonnes ) , down from the 1.2 million ounces exported in 1996,
according to an estimate by refiners Johnson Matthey last month.

The Russian export quota for palladium this year is to be 3.2
million ounces ( 100 tonnes ) , newswire reports said. Johnson Matthey
estimated Russia exported 4.6 million ounces last year. The bottom
line is world inventories have been seriously run down without
Russian exports and the vaults in Zurich are not going to be
quickly refilled, one analyst said.

Meanwhile, one-month palladium lease rates rose back over 150 pct
in the physical market Friday, while one year lease rates were
quoted around 60 percent. The acute shortage of PGMs in physical
market has begun hit consumers like automotive catalytic converter
manufacturers and dental supply companies.

Many manufacturers lowered inventories of physical metals in recent
years, to raise cash, and leased their stockpiles back from dealers
in return for buying through those dealers in the spot market as
their needs arose, traders said. But many of these leases are now
being called in as dealers have to meet other commitments, traders

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:47
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
George S. Cole Thanks for the update on Justin Mamis eight hours ago! I am really getting delayed! Just finished siding so Steve Puetz, I will paint no more! Steve, hope you were painting a *picture* of your house, the only kind of house painting I can stand.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:25
TED @puetz>(@puetz):
Hi stock in 15 years...too bad fer you!...where the Hell ya been...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:20
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl: I weighed it after hearin from ya and yer right...only 25 pounds...don't know where I came up with the 40 thingy...It IS called Monster Maul...ugly piece of orange metal...My saw of ten+ years is also a Stihl...also have a small electric Stihl fer carpentry work.....
Had a Jonsereds before...

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:09
Steve P.: I can recall many times in the last 15 years that I regretted not making your aquaitance sooner. ...... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:05
Ark: It may not mean the same right now; but how did you look at the decision last summer about this time? Or how about earlier this year? It probably seemed more reasonable then. All decisions, once made, become history, instantly. Better to agonize over the next decision to be made rather than over those no longer valid. .... Besides, reentry is still an option; isn't it? I'm sure they'd be happy to take your money. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 00:03
Steve Puetz @ ark>(@ ark):
Smarter than me. I haven't owned a stock in 15 years!!!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:57
TED @ted(22:10)>(@ted(22:10)):
This is a disclaimer....Ted ( 22:10 ) ain't it...Tarnished!...I don't go to bars.....

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:50
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
EARL: Good advice to Question. I couldn't have said it better.
When a Good ole boy says, I just want to hep you son 'cause
it is the right thing to do Button up all your pockets
and head for the nearest exit. Come to think about it,
that sounds like the beginnings of a campaign speech.

I wonder if intelligence can be measured by how much paper
loss a goldbug currently has? I sold my blue chips about
a year ago to move into gold. How smart does that make me?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:31
Steve Puetz @ student>(@ student):
Student: The table did not appear as I typed it. The computer must be using some type of automatic compress. 1996 is the year. 905 million ounces is the amount of gold all central banks hold. 262 is the amount of the US gold stock. 3730 is the total above-ground gold supply ( most of it in private hands ) . 73 is the annual mined-gold production.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:30
Panda: Do me with an Intel. I'm especially fond of the way it looks right now. Looks like a dippers delight. No? ....... ( :- ) )

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:18
student here>(here):
Steve Puetz: Your numbers on gold volumes are very important, but the way they appear run together is confusing. Please just explain one line, which will clearify the rest. Please ID the following --- thanks:
1996 905 262 3730 73

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:09
Oiving: Who in the **** are you? Please place the most egregiously offensive 4 letter anglo saxon expletive you can think of under the stars.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:09
panda @>(@):
If it gets any quieter around here...... I'll put up some-tech wreck charts with unbelievable bear candles on them! I mean it! While gold and gold derivatives may have sunk slowly, how about $20 weekly bear candles on them tech-wrecks.
:- ) )

Well, if the company stox options pay winds up being worthless at the exercise date...... Just lower the exercise price! Voila! Instant pay and gratification! Why is counterfeiting 'money' illegal and creating it with stox options OK? Why are people accepting this 'new' form of 'money' as pay? What ( giggle, laugh, snicker ) backs this new 'currency'? Why there's not even a promise to pay through extortion, er, I mean, taxation behind it. Go figure!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:07
Millhouse: You're on a useful track, IMO. For a long time I have been concerned about how the course of events will display itself. Will it be a slow increase in inflation that brings about a general increase in the price of gold, with a lazy rise in gold stocks that allows all hands to take advantage of the traditional 'leverage' or will it be a violent debt implosion and all that portends for currencies as well. ie, stores of value. If the latter case is operative, then some serious thought needs to be done on fundamental issues that most of us hold near and dear.

Yesterday, BW got me thinking about the business again a bit more seriously. If the movement in gold is accompanied by a sudden discontinuous increase in demand, who indeed will the metal be purchased from. The implications of such a scene are that it will be caused by events that are of such a nature that few willing sellers are likely to be found.

Given the narrow scope of our, informational, field of view and the frustrations associated with being involved with this miserable topic to begin with, additional thoughts about the final denoument would seem to be as cogent as how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. I don't think so. If one is heavily engaged in equities and suddenly it becomes apparent that bullion is the place to be; there will, likely, be no time allowed to correct the error. Witness the recent action in PL and PA and the spreads that developed very quickly. ..... Merely musing on a Saturday.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 23:02
Byron, Earl, George Cole & vronsky: You guys make the perfect BARBER-SHOP QUARTET: OK BOYS, let's take it from the top -
........................STANZA I

.........Blue skies smilin' at me
.........Nothin' but blue skies do I see
.........Bluebirds singin' a song
.........Nothin' but bluebirds all day long

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:57
Steve Puetz @ Central Bank gold sales>(@ Central Bank gold sales):
Some central banks, such as Canada and Belgium, have already liquidated virtually all of their gold. At this point, those banks are already non-factors in the gold market unless they decide to begin buying again.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:54
Steve Puetz @ Question>(@ Question):
Question: The only reason to buy gold is because the credit-based financial system of the U.S. is collapsing. As far as reducing the federal debt, at $350, gold does virtually nothing in debt reduction. At its true theoretical monetary value ( something around $35,000/ounce ) it begins to affect debt reduction.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:44
Steve Puetz @ Milhouse>(@ Milhouse):
Milhouse: I was a mathematics major in college. My that's why I thought your earlier posting was so humorous. I don't believe its true either. It was just funny.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:39
Can the Trader know? Can people wait?

Are the CBs serious about selling all of the gold ?
You bet they are! Except for Germany and the
Dutch. You see, some did not accept that the
physical market is “cornered”. Many only
read official statistics but others have eyes
and ears that receive thru walls! All new
supply is covered times 4 . And it is the small
existing stocks held by a few , who have
written contracts , that are a “problem”!
If the governments sell many will wait to be
filled. If they do not the trouble in London
will expand to the currencies!
Time has been purchased.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:39
Steve Puetz @Alias: Stat-man>(@Alias: Stat-man):
There's been a lot of postings about Central Bank gold sales. This really is a non-factor in the gold market. The following table will demonstrate this. It shows gold holdings by all central banks ( including US gold reserves ) , US gold reserves, total gold supply ( private plus public ) , and annual gold production. All are shown in millions of ounces.
Central U.S. total annual
YEAR banks gold supply prod.
---- ------- ---- ------ ------
1957 1077 651 1830 33
1966 1178 392 2159 47
1980 950 264 2782 39
1990 940 262 3298 70
1991 939 262 3370 71
1992 929 262 3442 74
1993 922 262 3514 74
1994 916 262 3586 74
1995 907 262 3658 73
1996 905 262 3730 73

Central Bank sales are a relatively small portion of the supply-demand picture.

For 1996:

Annual gold production is the greatest depressent: -73 million oz.
Central Bank gold sales: -2 million oz.
I'm not sure of this number Gold loans: -20 million oz.

Central banks presently hold 24% of above-ground world gold.
Private concerns now hold 76% of above-ground world gold.

The U.S. held 36% of all gold in 1957, now U.S. only holds 7% of gold.
Private concerns are already, by far, the top holders of gold. That's why changes in monetary demand are more important that Central Bank buy-sell decisions.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:20
Milhouse Knowledge vs No Knowledge>(Knowledge vs No Knowledge):

Vieserre - No apologies necessary, but I did think that my post which attempted to prove that the more you know the less money you make was clearly tongue in cheek ( even though it seems to ring true in the current market ) . Actually, what I have found is that the more I learn, the less I realise I know and the more I want to learn.

Best regards, Milhouse

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:15
Byron: Just revisited your chart. ..... Didn't you have similar one for the DOW as well, in the original post? .... What is equally scary is that the chart does not reflect recent action. It is truncated at 4/4/97. .... Who knows, maybe some 120+ years of market action will suddenly be tossed upon the ash heap of history. This is, after all, a marvelous new age.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:14
panda @>(@):
NJ -- Get with the program! The term is 'UPcrash' :- ) )

Let's face it, cash is trash because stox is cash now!

I looked over at the Avid chat, and their guest today was talking about SnP at 1500! The game plan is simple, we all buy and never sell. We kill the first person who even dreams of selling, that way the market can never go down! :- ) )

:- ) ) Remember, stock prices are NEVER set at the margin ( snicker, snicker ) . Everyone who bought MSFT will get $120/share when they sell, EVERY last one of'em. I don't know who will buy the stox, but that's something we can work out later.... much later.... As Lord Keynes said, In the long run, we are all dead.

OK, OK, it was a bad attempt at humor. In my defense, it's a slow night here.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:13
Milhouse Buy Gold ?>(Buy Gold ?):

To : Steve Puetz

You said in your 14:18 post that when people realise their financial paper is no good, they will want to buy gold and silver. BUT, buy gold and silver from whom ?

This, I believe, is a critical point. IMHO, all the noise about CBs and their gold sales is a red herring. The reason that the gold price is so low, and the only reason why CB sales/rumours of CB sales/CB loans etc have had such an impact, is because the monetary demand for gold ( outside of the Middle East and Asia ) remains very low. When this monetary demand increases, that is, when people start becoming fearful regarding the true value of their financial paper, the gold price will rise irrespective of what CBs do or say.

BTW, I've enjoyed reading your articles on the Gold Eagle website. They have given me another perspective ( I had previously only considered that the current financial situation would end in hyper inflation ) . You seem to be expecting massive deflation caused by a severe contraction of the money supply as the debt bubble implodes ( similar to what has happened in Japan since 1990 ? ) . Either way, gold will be the place to be. Silver - I'm not so sure.

Happy House Painting,

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:12
Predictor @is_in_the_building>(@is_in_the_building):
A great accumulation period has arrived for juniors, IMHO. Here is the predictor's top ten picks for your viewing pleasure ( do your research before investing in any security ) : ALTA, BGO, CALVF, CCH, GOLDF, MAENF, REO, SSC, VENGF, and VGZ. If you disagree, you can always express your own opinions or short em'. Best wishes and healthy investing over the next three months ( very volatile, IMHO ) .

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:10
TED @the bar>(@the bar):
Hi ya Tarnished! Still out there breakin noses? He-HAW....spent the last couple nights in the Cow Bay institution fer shrunkin worked...ouch! I'd be commin out to Alberta but I don't think Iz can deal wit reality Willy! Come tell me a story!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:02
Question: The appeal is to your sense of obligation not to anything related to your self interest. They can do nothing for you that you can not do for yourself at lower cost. ( they did not do the mailing because they have a sense of obligation ) . Run! Do not walk. ....Away from it.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:52
Question @>(@):
I got this email. Anybody know anything about this.

Here it is:

Team: I am part of an organization that purchases U.S. Gold Eagle coins
that were introduced by the US Government to help reduce the national

You may have heard of our organization, Family of Eagles. The advantage
is that you not only
- will help reduce the national debt, but
- will have Gold coins in your possession that is a long-term
investment, and
- will make money while doing so.

If any of the members would be interested, please inform me.

There is no catch to this. Yes, you will make money also, but it is not
a get-rich quick scheme. Family of eagles organization uses the network
marketing concepts to purchase Gold Eagle coins that reduces the
national debt.

Give me a chance to send you information and/or speak to you about it.
Of course, No obligations at all. Just a thanks that you listened.

Have a pleasant day.

713 656 1773/home
713 495-7821/home

7506 Las Flores
Houston, Texas 77083

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:51
NJ refresh>(refresh):
Byron: Your 18:25. That's scary.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:46
NJ gold>(gold):
Glenn : Government officials don't trade. They set policy, which is executed by skilled Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley traders. Besides, government is represented by Bob Rubin who is not to be underestimated as a trader. For gold it will be bad news if long bond yield goes up to 9.5% gradually. What will move gold is an event beyond Rubinspan's control. The reverse crash building up in the financial markets right now may well prove to be that.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:37
Poorboys Poorboys>(Poorboys):
To NJ-As far as I know these prices are as good or better than most delayed qotes.It is used for and by London based market makers but give me a month to give it a real checkout. Be back to you.See Ya.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:28
Tarnished @dingy>(@dingy):
Hi Ted!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:16
NJ spot gold>(spot gold):
PoorBoys : The site carries forex quotes. Where does one find spot gold price.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 21:00
To All -Real-time Gold spot prices ,Currency prices starting at 10 pm Sunday .You can trade with your mouse in real-time.It only takes seconds for your Gold Trade .Happy Trails.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 20:56
To All -Real-time Gold spot prices &Currency prices starting at 10 pm Sunday .You can trade with your mouse in real-time.It only takes seconds for your Gold Trade .Happy Trails.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 20:31
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
Click on Gold Sectors

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 20:19
nailz WOOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!>(WOOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!):
WOOPS !!!!! saught=sought

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 20:15
nailz Thanks Glenn>(Thanks Glenn):
GLENN....Your insights are respected and eagerly saught after. Thanks for sharing. I too wonder what is holding gold up right now....I also expect more of the same for the early part of next week....

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 18:55
Glenn Au>(Au):
nailz ( 12:15 ) - Re: Large sell orders at $350. - First let me state that I trade my own account and it is against Echange rules and regulations for me to know where buy and sell orders are. If I was a broker or clerk who was holding large buy or sell orders it would be against exchange rules and regulations to tell anyone or for that matter state on the internet where they were, how many or how much. With that said I do believe that there were large sell orders between 350 and 355. I do not know how long they will be there. I mean at some point in time we will get through 355. Hell, someday we will get throught $400.00, but right now Gold looks awfull. Most of the action this week happened on the open and the close. During the middle of the day, especially during the second half of the week it was quite boring. I mean if someone tried to buy or sell 40 contract they could stop the market for an hour. But on th eclose friday I say a number of semi-large orders ( 150 - 250 contracts ) get crossed with no problems at all. One traders had 150 contracts to buy at 343.10 with one minute to go. I thought that was it, were going higher, but before I could even react another trader about 5 feet away just said SOLD and that was that. I'm not sure what it means. After all for every buyer there is a seller. It's just that come monday morning someone's going to be making alot and someone's going to be looseing alot. ( Obviously )

George Cole ( 12:47 ) Re: Central bank sales - Gold is unlike other commodities in that Supply and Demand do not determine if it is in a Bull or Bear market. Copper, supply and demand are everything, but not in Gold!! Supply and Demand WILL determine how low we shall go in a bear market or how high in a bull market but NOT if we are in one. The central banks can sell all they want, when the time is right this will do nothing more than provide the liquidity for some really big traders to enter the market. Plus government officals are the worst traders in the world. They have never been right. So for people in this group to get all worked up about this is nonsense. All this talk and sell can push Gold lower right now because we are in a bear market and would be no matter what, but I will continue to believe in Gold unless the U.S. 30 year government bond is yielding MORE than 9.5% and Gold is still under $400, then at that point I will give up. But right now with Oil crashing down, stocks and bonds souring I only wonder what is holding Gold up right now?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 18:27
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
To George S. Cole,
Thank you for your reply and anlysis. I've felt the same way since the summer of 1996 and since then I've been accumulating modest positions in the Canadian Juniors. I've not felt the gold bear because they are at or above their purchase price. I have plenty of time and I will wait patiently for the gold bull. Thanks again.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 18:25
Byron @ But This Time It Is Different:>(@ But This Time It Is Different:):
A Reminder: Previously posted this chart several weeks ago, but with the upheveal in the stock market I thought a refresh was in order. This chart is dated 4/4/97.

Notice the last time the market moved over the upper line was in 1929. Note also that this is a constant dollars chart for 1997.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 17:59
REB na>(na):
George S. Cole: In one of your posts you observed that if CB's sell their bullion stocks they won't be able to manipulate the market any more. That comment has stuck with me because I think it implies that most if not all discussion of CB's dumping gold is a bluff. If they
no longer own it, they can't control it.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:46
Steve Puetz @ work>(@ work):
Back to house paintin'.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:44
Steve Puetz @ Nailz>(@ Nailz):
Nailz: It just hit me while reading your posting that the way the stock market is soaring, Dow Jones should rename the DOW the WOW!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:40
Steve Puetz @ George Cole>(@ George Cole):
George: Volume generally does precede price. The only exception to that rule is a market melt-down or a melt-up. For example, the low since 1987 was the heavy volume week in October 1987. If you call last weeks action qualifies as a melt-up ( or blow-off ) , then it could be the top. Selling panics usually happen about once every decade in stocks. Blow-offs, however, are extremely rare in the stock market. In fact, this may be the first one ever.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:39
George S. Cole Justin Mamis>(Justin Mamis):
ROEBEAR: Justin Mamis was quite bearish a few months ago. Obviously prematurely so like many others. I do not know his current call, but suspect he is even more bearish

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:33
Steve Puetz @ Roebear>(@ Roebear):
Roebear: I know what you mean. I'm painting the house in between postings. That job isn't on my work-list. It's on the honey-do list.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:19
RJ Button.......>(Button.......):
I give up, I'm going to the beach. Thongs await.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:17
RJ I'm only supposed to press that butting once, right?>(I'm only supposed to press that butting once, right?):

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:14
RJ IOUs won't work>(IOUs won't work):
The US mint had to borrow 81,000 ounces of platinum from US strategic reserves to mint the Platinum American Eagle. I bought one of those also @ $695. Took my change in wooden nickels. The treasury bill authorizing the minting of platinum coins, requires the mint to replace these borrowed metals. IOUs will not work here, only the physical metal will do. Admittedly the repayment doesn’t have to be made until 2003, but as the platinum coin becomes a self supporting revenue generator, look for the largest mint on earth to be a buyer on world markets. This entirely new source of demand can have a profound effect. Demand for Platinum increases at approximately 4% - 5% per year, with last year’s increase nearing 7%. Production has barely kept up with demand. Any interruption in production, will cause the price to explode. I still believe in $500 and higher platinum this year, and, like the mid to late 1980s, were are entering into a new trading range. Still holding my platinum, most expensive of which is in the $340s. I will buy more on a breakout, or a consolidation at $410+.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 16:14
RJ IOUs won't work>(IOUs won't work):
The US mint had to borrow 81,000 ounces of platinum from US strategic reserves to mint the Platinum American Eagle. I bought one of those also @ $695. Took my change in wooden nickels. The treasury bill authorizing the minting of platinum coins, requires the mint to replace these borrowed metals. IOUs will not work here, only the physical metal will do. Admittedly the repayment doesn’t have to be made until 2003, but as the platinum coin becomes a self supporting revenue generator, look for the largest mint on earth to be a buyer on world markets. This entirely new source of demand can have a profound effect. Demand for Platinum increases at approximately 4% - 5% per year, with last year’s increase nearing 7%. Production has barely kept up with demand. Any interruption in production, will cause the price to explode. I still believe in $500 and higher platinum this year, and, like the mid to late 1980s, were are entering into a new trading range. Still holding my platinum, most expensive of which is in the $340s. I will buy more on a breakout, or a consolidation at $410+.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:55
nailz DOW BULL CHAT!!!!!>(DOW BULL CHAT!!!!!):
ALL.. If you want to read some really bullish DOW stuff, go to this morning on AVID.....They had a guest who generated some strongly bullish stuff on there....WOW...some REALLY BIG numbers he says

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:54
RJ Earl>(Earl):
Zero gold sales correct. I had understood, however, that current official valuation is $42/oz. The difference is hardly worth talking about. I had just seen so much here recently on gold sales and revaluation. Expect neither from the US. EC members? Anything is possible.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:39
RJ: Reserves have been static since the closing of the gold window. It has been said that gold sales are prohibited by law. Whatever that means in today's world. .......Present official valuation is $43.50/oz.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:32
What is the official per ounce valuation of US gold reserves?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:28
How much of US Gold reserves have been sold in the last 50 years

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:28
TED @white-sideddolphins>(@white-sideddolphins):
White-Sided Dolphins sited 100 feet out from front yard...circling the lobster traps...Nailz: yer message just came in ....fer some reason it reads in 3 long lines......will decipher......Gotta run.......

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:25
RJ To seek more, is to know more>(To seek more, is to know more):
Vieserre - Re: ( To know or not to know ) ..... The professional uses knowledge to recognize how much he does not know. Therein lay the keys to the kingdom. Well said.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:12
ted butler silver>(silver):
bw - great silver story, first time I heard it.

I think ole D.A. is going to own the world with those silver calls he's been buying. You have my sincere wishes for success ( although I do hope you don't need all the time ) . A couple of recent observations;
1. bw pointed out the commercials were the lightest they've been on the short side in a while. With Fri's expiration of July options ( close to 30K calls ) . they are super light. This only matters of course if you believe the big guys move ( or let move ) the markets when it's convenient for them.
2. After a lull, there has been heavy physical movement ( in and out ) lately in Comex warehouses. Over the past few days almost 10 million ozs - 300+ tons of silver were removed. While this has happened before, it's a bit unusual two weeks before 1st delivery day, when stocks generally increase.
3. Based on panda's post the other AM on the PGMs yahoo story, there's talk of leases being cancelled that have been outstanding for a while. While lease rates in gold and silver have been coming down in the past few days, it's possible a movement to exit these leases may be starting. This, if true, would be wildly bullish.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:06
Roebear @Hershey Bears>(@Hershey Bears):
Steve Puetz: Delayed reaction here, following thread between chores. I believe Mamis, who I only know from his books, would recommend being out of market at this point or mostly so. I am, having sold last stock Thursday except for a few metal stocks mostly silver. Anyone having any news of his ( Justins Mamis ) views current ( if he is still around ) I would find that interesting.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 15:02
With more than $5 billion pouring into the mutual fund reservoir weekly, the Dam will burst. See June 16, 1997 “The Coming ‘RUN’ on Mutual Funds.”:

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:53
George S. Cole volume and price>(volume and price):
Steve Puetz: Don't the technicians say that volume generally peaks before price?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:45
yellowdog @taken from>(@taken from

COMEX METALS -- Aug ( GCQ7 ) and spot ( KRCGL ) gold have both moved to the bottom of their respective triangle patterns as seen on daily charts. Bollinger Bands have tightened but not to historically narrow levels. Because the patterns each is in have nearly reached their apexes ( right side points ) , they are likely to be negated by further sideways action. At that point, Bollinger Bands will have tightened further and a breakout should be imminent. The direction is still unclear.

Jly platinum ( PLN7 ) spent the week in a sharp correction consistent with its sharp run-up the week before. Friday's close brought the market below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Feb-Jun rally so we may see further weakness to the 50% level near the $415 level.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:43
ALL..There was a lot of caution expressed in the Market Watch section of Barron's. Saw several of you mention specific articles. I thought there were more expressing caution than usual......STEVE...I too am out of stocks right now....except for a few SSC that I plan to add to...Will add some golds sometime....

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:27
nailz TED LOOK OUT !!!!>(TED LOOK OUT !!!!):
TED...Man your battlestation...You have incoming !!!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:18
Steve Puetz>(
All of this about the stock market is significant, because when people suddenly realize that their financial-paper is no good, they will scramble to get liquid by getting into real money -- gold and silver. Then an equally difficult question will arise: BUY GOLD AND SILVER FROM WHOM SOMEBODY, SOMEBODY, FIND ME SOME GOLD AND SILVER!!!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:13
Steve Puetz @ Vieserre>(@ Vieserre):
Similar to my comments to Roebear, the wealth effect is a feeling only. There is no substance to it. It is imagined wealth. As soon as investors try to get out of the market and realize their paper gains by selling, they will suddenly be hit by the shocking question: SELL TO WHOM?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:13
Viserre A Note of Thanks>(A Note of Thanks):
GEORGE COLE: Before I leave for the day, I wish to acknowledge my thanks and appreciation for your comments directed to my posts and for your ongoing significant contributions to this forum.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 14:08
Steve Puetz @ George Cole>(@ George Cole):
George: The idea that debts are not high in relation to the size of either the stock market and/or the economy is a seriously flawed agruement. I explain this in detail in my book Total Collapse. Nevertheless, this arguement has been widely used. Essentially, debt has been the air that has been inflating the stock market balloon. To argue that a fully inflated balloon can hold more air because the ratio of surface area to inside-air is not much different than when air was first pumped into the balloon -- is an equally insane arguement ( and very much like the one being used by stock market bulls ) .

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:55
Steve Puetz @ for your information>(@ for your information):
I just noticed while pouring over the Stat Section of Barron's today, that volume in the 30 DJIA stocks was the 2nd highest on record this week as the DJIA did its melt-up. Highest volume was in the 3rd week of October 1987. Also, NYSE volume was 3rd highest on record, only exceeded twice earlier this year during January as secondary stocks were making their peak. Could this be the signal we were wating for? The buying panic has occurred? Blue-chips have made their peak

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:53
bw Our wealth:>(Our wealth:):
In 1963 the us treasury had to clean out a vault ( they needed the space to store currency ) of morgan silver dollars, thousands of bags each with one thousand morgan silver dollars inside. Even back then these coins had good numismatic value. Each of the bags had a mint seal over one hundred years old. What do you think they sold em for? A buck apiece! Some of the coins in those bags were very rare. Did they open the bags and look for the winners? You can probably guess. It was first come first served, cash only, one sack per customer ( but if you had a strong wife you could get two ) . You hand the man ten crisp hundreds and get a fifty pound sack of bu silver dollars. To this day the image is burned in my brain. Hundreds of people lined up on the steps of the treasury, opening their wallets extracting a few pieces of paper and walking away with as much silver as they could carry. Armed guards kept the peace as you dumped the coins on the ground, left your wife to guard em and got the car. What a country! Alas, it was one day only, in a few hours the coins were gone and the vault was filled with paper.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:51
TED @vieserre(12:19)>(@vieserre(12:19)):
Vieserre: For obvious reasons am glad to see you posting so much and hope it continues as you have much to offer to the forum!..Ely,Minnesota..ah yes,such fond memories and I too used Ely as a starting point heading North into one Canadian lake after another...Nothin like a long portage with blackflies in yer face...ah, the good old days...Once went on a three week canoe trip from Ely into Canada and on the second night out a GIANT bear climbed the tree and got our napsack with half the food for the trip...While the rest compensated by eating fish,I practically starved as even at age 15 did not eat fish or meat...I had to scroung fer berries ...During the entire three week trip we saw no sign of the human race!....Yes,fond memmories........

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:50
Steve Puetz @ Roebear>(@ Roebear):
Roebear: Yes, trend-following is investing without knowledge of the factors that are making a market move. In the present case, stock market trend-followers are making money. Informed investors -- who realize that we are in a mania and stocks are grossly over-valued -- stay out of stocks. That's why I've been chicken to be in stocks, I'm informed. But I still believe that the un-informed bulls will be slaughtered. The trend-followers will wonder: Sell to whom? when the trend reverses course. I guess I will remain chicken and stay out of stocks.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:49
Vieserre Apology>(Apology):
MILHOUSE: As a futher reflection on my post to you it was a stupid thing to say, said on the spur of the moment, and I would like to apologize for the flippant remark. But I think you got my drift. I often refrain from reading posts as well because of the influence they have. And I have also found at times, the simplist the approach, the more successful the outcome. And knowledge itself does not make for successful investing as witnessed by the plethora of unsuccessful money managers, economists, and company officers who invest in their own industry or company for that matter. So I know where you are coming from.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:45
ted butler clarifications>(clarifications):
Vieserre and George Cole,

V -I've read about those, so I stand corrected, but those aren't the plain vanilla typical loan.

George- I didn't assert that the Fed wasn't doing it, so you may be right. The very nature of who's doing these loans ( CBs and metal dealers ) makes the info super hard to come by, that's why they have been able to go on for so many years and with such a market impact, right under our noses. The guy I subsequently talked to at the Fed said he mailed away for the report I mentioned earlier at my suggestion. It is amazing how little is known about these metal loans.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:43
Would someone please provide me with the open, high, low and close of the June S&P? My data service somehow forgot to include this info.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:27
Vieserre Wealth and Debt>(Wealth and Debt):
STEVE PUETZ: Steve, thanks for your comments. Your view of debt defaults is supported in Barrons today by an apparent increase in housing delinguencies. However, even if there is high debt and margin supports the market, still the investor has to have made money and presumably accumulated wealth. And as long as he can drag this out of the market before it collapses, it should flow into the economy. Moreover there is wealth being accumulated by job growth and wage increases presumably even by those who have not invested in the market - which should also have this effect. To have recessionary forces in view of this is a non-sequitur ( sp ) . Interesting times. You may find an article on the subject of how wealth created by the stock market will affect the economy in the Morgan Stanly Global Economic Forum at their web site interesting. It is full of statistics that economists thrive on and which escape me one second after they are read, but the bottom line is it seems to be dependent on how long the market is at this level, whether is goes higher and whether it sharply corrects.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:17
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Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:10
George s. Cole economic outlook>(economic outlook):
Steve Puetz: Actually the ecconomy's OVERALL balance sheet is in pretty good shape. Stock market and real estate values have risen much more than debt in recent years.

The problem is that those at the top own almost all of stocks, but owe very little of the consumer debt. The bottom 80%, by contrast, owe most of the debt, but own very little stock. Many people in this group also face dclining real incomes; hence the surge in personal bankruptcies.

So while deflationary forces are mounting for those busineeses serving the middle and lower classes, things have never been better for the upscale firms catering to the swells' as they were called in the 1920s. Luxury good prices are surging.

In this dual economy, economic forecasting based on traditional numbers such as consumer bankruptcies has become increasing hazardous.

The stock market itself has a better record of forecasting recessions than any economist. And right now it is saying no recession. Of course all this could change overnight if the market crashes.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 13:08
Vieserre To know or not to know>(To know or not to know):

MILHOUSE: In my view it is absurd to forgo knowledge because it will lead to unsuccessful investing. The problem is with the use of the knowledge. The tyro believes that with the knowledge he possesses, he can predict what the market will do. The professional uses the knowledge to recognize how much he does not know.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:49
GVC @Shek-usa article.>(@Shek-usa article.):
Shek: Re the USA TODAY bearish gold article, If I recall , when gold started to receive headlines and articles in this national publication at the end of its rally in early '96, it marked the top. Hopefully, the appearance of this bearish article yesterday will mark the bottom.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:47
George S. Cole gold leasing>(gold leasing):

I will accept Ted Butler's assetion that the Fed is not now leasing any gold. It seemed so logical that I just assumed it. Of course this could change in the future.

Glenn: Would be interested in your take on this Fed study advocating that the CBs sell all their bullion.

Glad that somebody on Wall Street ( Barton Biggs ) agrees with me on the market. The Dow stocks almost certainly will lose momentum after last week's run even if they haven't quite peaked yet. But the small caps, which lagged badly last week, still may have another 10% or more on the upside before the game ends.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:43
Vieserre home>(home):
TED BUTLER: Ted, on your comment to DAX, this may be of interest. I read somewhere on the subject of gold leases, that in some cases, gold is not actually transferred. A right to the gold is apparently transferred and this is sold or exchanged or pledged or whatever in the transaction process as if the gold was actually delivered. Interesting!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:42
Roebear @chocolateworld>(@chocolateworld):
Milhouse Your equation this AM reminds me of Justin Mamis book The Nature of Risk and Stock Market Survival. One his axioms is that you do not need to know why, because the big boys know first, you just need to know /believe what is happening ( and the market doing ) . Read the tape, believe the chart, News is either late or misleading. Narrow for commodities, yet excellent when time to sell/ perhaps buy.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:40
Steve Puetz @ Vieserre>(@ Vieserre):
Regarding your question about wealth effect from rising stock market co-existing with decline PPI. At the risk of Milhouse's Law being true ( The more you know, the less money you make -- that really made an impression on me!! ) , and the consequences the knowledge may cost you, here goes. The rising stock market is a mania. It is not a rising market based on value. It is speculative -- that is, the funds for making stock purchases are almost exclusively borrowed ( either directly or indirectly ) . At this point, the mania is feeding on itself. It sucks in more players and more borrowed funds with each passing day -- thus sending the DJIA to more absurd levels as time passes. This mania is co-existing with a detiorating financial condition. People and businesses have so much debt that the can't repay it -- even the job growth has been expanding for 6 year, and even though unemployment is at a 25 year low. Bankruptcies and delinquencies are rising with each month. The heavy and unpayable debt loaded are deflationary. In fact, they are extremely deflationary.

The decline in the PPI for 5 months in a row ( the longest stretch of declines since the 1950s ) is strong evidence that deflationary forces are over-taking the economy. The decline in retail sales ( for 3 months in a row -- normally a sign that a recession has started ) , is additional evidence of the deflationary forces at work.

The credit that is still being borrowed is going mostly into stocks. There aren't enough good credit risks in the consumer sector to make additional loans there. So we have a collapsing economy on the one hand, and a highly speculative stock market on the other hand. My guess is that speculators will wake up and notice the collapsing economy during the next month or two. Then, the long-awaited stock market crash will be history.

Use this information at your own risk.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:34
Vieserre home>(home):
TED BUTLER: Thanks, that is what I suspected.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:31
Sorry about that. Here is the reformatted comment.

The action for the past couple of weeks confirms we are in a consolidation that will eventually be followed by another leg up towards 120-130 with more bullish potential thereafter. Since 108.74 we have a clear 3 waves down followed by a choppy rise so far. This structure suggests this consolidation is probably taking the shape of a flat. If I am right, expect prices to move towards 108.74 before pulling back one more time towards 98 before the fun begins. A strong move below 96 will change the picture and call for more weakness while a push above 112 will indicate the next leg up has already begun. This ideal scenario I've outlined seems to be in synch with Gold & Silver. Both are now struggling in a contracting triangle and as of tonight, I cannot rule out slightly more gain before we see a short but sharp reversal for one more time. Hopefully it would be the last and Gold will not move below 325. This is the critical level for the bullish case.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:29
Vieserre To Lease or Not to Lease>(To Lease or Not to Lease):
DAX: Good point, I do not know, but presumably by the nature of a lease there is a transfer of possession or a right to possession, and in any event, is this relevant if the FED does not have authority.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:27
Here is Yauger's comment of June 12.

The action for the past couple of weeks confirms we are in a consolidation that will eventually be followed by another leg up towards 120-130 with more bullish potential thereafter. Since 108.74
we have a clear 3 waves down followed by a choppy rise so far. This structure suggests this consolidation is probably taking the shape of a flat. If I am right, expect prices to move towards
108.74 before pulling back one more time towards 98 before the fun begins. A strong move below 96 will change the picture and call for more weakness while a push above 112 will indicate the
next leg up has already begun. This ideal scenario I've outlined seems to be in synch with Gold & Silver. Both are now struggling in a contracting triangle and as of tonight, I cannot rule out
slightly more gain before we see a short but sharp reversal for one more time. Hopefully it would be the last and Gold will not move below 325. This is the critical level for the bullish case.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:26
ted butler trial balloon>(trial balloon):
Vieserre ( also Bernie from a few days ago ) ,

To the best of my knowledge, the Fed doesn't lease gold, nor do the big CB's, although I have read reports that Switzerland was considering it. It seems that only second and third tier CBs are involved, but are involved up to their eyeballs. It makes the lease game that much more dangerous. The best info I've come across on the subject is free and easy to get. Call the World Gold Council in NY at 212 688 0005 ( during business hours ) for a copy of their Research Report #14, The Gold-Borrowing Market: Recent Developments by Ian Cox.

Dax - all metal loans involve actual physical release or movement of metal.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:26
GLENN....On the other side of the same question, can you tell if there are significant buy orders waiting in the pit If so at what levels If there are, can you tell if they are short stops or new longs

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:23
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
ALL: What if all this talk about the CB's gold selling, etc
to talk the price of gold down is just a smoke screen?
Purpose? Common sense tells me that the Euro will not fly
since it is based on a paper house of financial sticks easily
collapsed by an ill wind of confidence. Their only
recourse is a gold backed monetary base. I think the CB
or their beards will be the ones loading up when the price
is low enough.

Or am I giving them too much credit for smarts?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:19
Vieserre home>(home):
TED: Morning Ted, as you can see I am on a roll, having posted more this morning then for the entire past two months. ELY: Used to frequent the boundary waters with ELY as my start point in September of each year going in for a week or more at a time. Remarkable memories. As I paddled in remote areas along massive stone walls fronting the water with paintings portrayed on them by my Indian predecessors as they passed by and changed only by forces of weather, at moments like that, with only the wilderness about me, time seemed to stand still, and I would not have been surprised see the originators in their canoe ahead of me.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:15
GLENN.....We at this site have heard of large sell orders in the $350-355 range which have been sitting in the pit awaiting execution for some time. Can you tell us if there is any truth to that rumor If so can you get a feel for the size of the waiting sell orders Can you tell who they are from ? You have mentioned, as I recall, just a touch over $350 as your point to turn bullish. Is that right If so, then the rumors of the large sell orders must be false or you are unaware of their existance. I think it would be interesting to most of us here to know the facts.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:14
Steve Puetz The more you know, the less you make. >(The more you know, the less you make. ):
Milhouse: ITEM 2 from today's Barron's by Alan Abelson, In a bear market, so runs the old street adage, money returns to its rightful owners. If, we might add, they live long enough.... What the utterance originally meant to convey, we suppose, was extreme contempt for the extravagances invariably created by bull markets. Not so much excesses in the market itself .... but the wanton behavior induced by the potent combination of too much money [read: credit] and too few brains.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:12
ezau test>(test):
Had trouble. This is a test

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:08
Vieserre: Would leasing arrangements necessarily involve the acutal movement of gold from its governmental vaults?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:08
Steve Puetz @Milhouse>(@Milhouse):
Regarding your comment, The more you know, the less money you make.
ITEM 1: In today's Barron's, Jim Grant ran an ad saying: So who's crazy -- the market or me? The more intense the craze, to quote a Wall Street adage, the higher the order of intellect that succumbs to it... This [is] perhaps the craziest market since the tulips.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 12:00
NJ Barton Biggs>(Barton Biggs):
Today's Barrons carries the following comment by Barton Biggs of morgan Stanley in their Market Watch section.

I see capitulation and complacency. You never thought what is enough until you know what is more than enough. I have the feeling we are setting up for something out of the blue soon. Something with the stunning violence of a punch in the mouth when you are not expecting it. The dog days of summer have often been the times for brutal mmuggings of investors by the market.

George S. Cole: Seems he has been reading your posts.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 11:55
Vieserre Further on the Trial Ballon>(Further on the Trial Ballon):
GEORGE COLE: Considering further your suspicion that the FED is leasing gold, but you cannot confirm it. I would think that this financial statistic would be obtainable either in public records or through the Freedom of Information Act. And if so, the information would be published in the financial media. But I have not seen it. If the information cannot be obtained because it is deemed sensitive and against the public interest, one has to consider whether the FED has the authority to lease gold. I am not aware of any such authority. If gold cannot be sold without congressional approval, would not the FED be taking an enormous risk of violating this mandate by a lease underwhich the gold itself may not be returned. Assuming such lease information is not publically available and the FED has no authority to lease gold, then the presumption follows that the FED is not leasing gold nor selling it. Arguably, with this in mind, the research grant and trial ballon may be the first step in an evaluation process being undertaken by the FED to determine whether it is advisable to lease or sell gold reserves for the public good. And, on this premise, it is something to consider that the major holder of reserves has neither been leasing nor selling gold in the market - as well as the impact of such sales or leases. If anyone has any evidence that the FED has authority to or is leasing gold, please make it known.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 11:50
TED @monstermaul>(@monstermaul):
Time fer some wood spliitin with the Monster Maul.....right before I swing I envision Bubba Clinton's face and then....WACK...SPLAT...

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 11:33
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Saturday is me day to go to Sydney and get The Globe+Mail which on Saturdays has a good business section...Was raining earlier but now with the sun peakin out I'm thinkin thoughts of splittin more wood...helps me brain stay barely alive....GOOD JOKE...hahahaha...reminds me of Cape Breton...

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 11:11
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 11:07
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Howdy Ted, I though you would be out on the water on a nice morning like this or doing your Moses thing on those logs ( parting them ) . With all the whining we often do about the USA at least we are not living in Russia as the following story illustrates.

A Russian man saves his rubles for twenty years to buy a new car. After choosing the model and options he wants, he's not the least bit surprised or even concerned to learn that it will take two years for the new car to be delivered. He thanks the sale sman and starts to leave, but as he
reaches the door he pauses and turns back to the salesman Do you know which week two years from now the new car will arrive? he asks.

The salesman checks his notes and tells the man that it will be two years to the exact week. The man thanks the salesman and starts out again, but upon reaching the door, he turns back again.

Could you possibly tell me what day of the week two years from now the car will arrive? The salesman, mildly annoyed, checks his notes again and says that it will be exactly two years from this week, on Thursday. The man thanks the salesman and once again starts to leave.

Halfway though the door, he hesitates, turns back, and walks up to the salesman.

I'm sorry to be so much trouble, but do you know if that will be two years from now on Thursday in the morning, or in the afternoon? Visibly irritated, the salesman flips through his papers yet another time and says sharply that it will be in the afte rnoon, two years from now
on Thursday.

That's a relief! says the man. The plumber is coming in the morning!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:59
Vieserre : )>( : )):
GEORGE COLE: And if it is a trial ballon, would it not be appropriate for those spirited among us who post disapproval of such sales to contact their governmental representatives and voice their disapproval, which will certainly not have any less affect than being posted hereon.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:59
Vieserre : )>( : )):
GEORGE COLE: And if it is a trial ballon, would it not be appropriate for those spirited among us who post disapproval of such sales to contact their governmental representatives and voice their disapproval, which will certainly not have any less affect than being posted hereon.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:46
Vieserre A Dichotomy>(A Dichotomy):
STEVE PUETZ: Would appreciate your views on the apparent dichotomy between the wealth generated by 43% of American consumers who now own stock and presumably have substantially increased their wealth in view of the rising stock market ( this of course excludes gold investors ) together with the almost fully-employed labor market with rising incomes and the record high consumer sentiment on one hand; and modest consumer buying and remarkable continuing decrease in PPI and CPI numbers on the other hand.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:41
George s. Cole gold war>(gold war):
VIESERRE: The Treasury has not sold any gold for a long time. No data that I am aware of on gold loans, but I suspect they have a lot outstanding.

You're correct -- this probably is a trial balloon and undoubtedly would have a bigger market impact if endorsed by the Fed and/or the Treasury. If this nation ever did decide to sell its gold reserves, the Treasury would make that decision with Congressional approval.

There are differences of opinion on the Fed Board of Governors -- most are not as fanatical on the subject of gold as ex-Governor Wayne Angell. Even so, I suspect that all would sit up and take notice if the price broke through the unofficial $400 ceiling.

My take on all this -- Rubin and Greenspan know that a big break in the markets is not far off. Such a debacle would be intensified if it were accompanied by surging gold prices. Greenspan and Rubin are maneuvering to keep gold under control when the market breaks by stepping up the psychological war against the noble metal.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:41
Crystal Ball @nervous goldbug>(@nervous goldbug):
The long term gold P&F chart is VERY scary looking ( see at Privateer site ) It looks like a roadmap to the bearish daily and weekly bar chart scenario playing out, with an indicated downside target of *at least* 300 in the longer term.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:23
George S. Cole>(
Gene: You implicitly assume the prime objective of the anti-gold CBs ( not all CBs by any means ) is to maximize the proceeds from gold sales. I have a different take. Their main objective is to prevent or at least delay a big rise in gold prices. Their motto is -- keep the paper bull alive as long as humanly possible. If that means selling or loaning gold cheaply, so be it.

They probably would rather not sell much gold, but probably will try to keep the price depressed via “psychological warfare' -- the threat of big sales in the future. If they sold all their bullion, they would not longer be able to manipulate the market. Remember the on again off again threat of IMF sales. Last I heard, the IMF has not actually sold any gold. But the threat of such sales did help put the kibosh on bullion.

I suspect the markets are getting wise to the CB games. They are going to have put up or shut up.

And when gold is ready to make its move, the CBs will not be able to prevent it even if they dump all their reserves. After all a few hundred billion dollars of CB bullion really is chicken feed in a world where stock and foreign exchange transactions total trillions of dollars each day.

When investor demand snaps out of its current doldrums, it really won't matter much what the CBs do. But this demand will not appear until the stock market goes down big time and fear replaces greed as the dominant investor emotion.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:22
Vieserre FED Comments>(FED Comments):
GEORGE COLE: Has the FED made any gold loans. Has the FED sold any gold. Has the FED endorsed the research report. The Wire Release stated that although it was issued by the FED bank, it was a discussion paper, authored by a Fed economist and three other analysts, one an MIT graduate student, but is the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be seen as reflecting the views of the Fed's board. Would not the FED's endorsement of the report have a greater effect on gold, if that is the FED's intent. Or is this not perhaps merely a trial balloon to obtain the feedback from the financial community for further discussion on the subject in view of the notoriety of CB selling in other countries.
Contra as to gold influencing FED policy, Professor Blinder, the former Vice Chairman of the FED and also member of the Council of Economic Advisers in 93 and 94, recently, in answer to a specific question as to how important gold is in setting economic policy at the FOMC meetings stated Gold, I would say, has about as close to a zero weight as is humanly possible to give it. Yes, I know this is at odds with news reports that Greenspan uses gold as a key indicator.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:21
Puetz @>(@):
Milhouse: There's a flaw in your logic somewhere in your 5:46 posting. Just haven't figured it out yet. Too early in the morning. I got a good laugh though. It's good that you can keep your sense of humor in these times. Ted, I'm off to get Barron's. Will read Biggs.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 10:21
Bob M>(
Dont underestimate the resilience of the baby boom investors. Everyone unanimously agrees that a 20% correction will send them off running with their tail between their legs. But those who have been in the market since the early 90's would still be well ahead of the game even under those cicumstances. It will take a major sentiment shift to change them, a lot more then a 20% drop. Besides, every time the market has dropped during their investment time, it has rebounded, until something occurs to change that, why should their thinking and strategies change? I have learned over the years that gold and silver are not long hold investments, if you make a profit get out, if you sit their and wait for the big move your probably going to lose your tail. When a big move starts, there will be plenty of time to get in and take a large chunk of the profit. Suply and demand is not favorable to gold, the supply is ever increasing with new mines and technology. Kind of just like oil, even though the price is higher now then it was in the 70s, it is still cheaper to drive because cars are more efficient. Technology at work!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 09:07
Shek @home>(@home):
USA Today article on gold

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 08:36
TED @barrons>(@barrons):
Some good stuff on stox market in Barrons, especially for those who think things are gettin a little out of hand...Barton Biggs thinks something soon will come out of the blue with the violence of a punch in the mouth ( ouch ) to derail the stox mania....He also quoted an old Japanese proverb that was popular in the bull market of the late 80's...The fools are dancing but the bigger fools are watching...

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 08:28
panda @>(@):
Good morning TED!

Milhouse -- Regarding your 05:46, So that's my problem! I shall set out to correct it as soon as I can buy options on the Dow! :- ) ) I will also seek to 'turn off' cognititve processes in the brain regarding 'investing' :- ) ) Clearly, to win in a climate of absurdity, I need to be 'cognitively dissonant'. Translation, the lunatics are in charge of the assylum ( stock market ) , and I'm attempting to be rational! You're right, that can't work. :- ) )

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 08:13
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
To George S. Cole,
Re your desperation post. Why would Central Banks make such an announcement ahead of time? Are they attempting to drive down the price of gold so that they can sell at a lower price? The announcement itself is illogical. I am also wondering if perhaps the Central Banks have less gold in reserve than is generally believed. Also, the Clinton Administration announced the future sale of the Strategic Oil reserve only after it had already been sold. Could the same be happening with gold?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 08:09
Ali ( 2:47 ) Mornin Ali...E-mail me about yer life as a wood-splitter...I've been at it fer 30 years and will be back fer more today...Beats playin

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 08:00
TED @tort>(@tort):
Mornin Tort! You'd think for five or ten million a year the Mailman could shoot a foul shot....RE- the stock market: As Panda said at 4.5% a week, why stox....

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 07:40
Tortfeasor Days of Whine and Moses>(Days of Whine and Moses):
These are frustrating days for me. All around me people who know nothing about the market are experts as the prices are bid up and up. The voices on this forum are voices of reason, but the voices of reason are not making any money. The waiting is exceedingly frustrating especially with long term gold calls that are becoming not so long term now. How does one tell persons in his office that they are going to get burned when the Challenger explodes and returns to earth. I think it was yesterday that the government announced that consumer prices had dropped for the fifth straight month. That's simply amazing given the white hot government presses which continue to spew forth frothy green bilge. Truly we live in an Alice in Wonderland economy where nothing is as it appears. Then to top it all off the Jazz can't seem to play in the fourth quarter and we have to endure more Jordan, Pippen, Rottenman interviews and drowing--just more than a man can take. I will say again as I have before its nice to come to this formum where there are kindred spirits with reasonable thoughts.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 07:11
George S. Cole Sign of Desperation?>(Sign of Desperation?):
Wonder if the Fed proposal for CB gold dumping reflects a sense of desperation on their part. Perhaps they are finding it ever more difficult to keep the yellow stuff suppressed via the gold loan and modest gold sales route. Fearing that gold will soon experience a huge move up unless the war is escalated, they now are throwing in their last reserves so to speak. Comments?

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 06:35
George S. Cole gold bottom>(gold bottom):
NAILZ: Thanks for the info on gold bottoms! As you know I feel this gold bear probably will end with a final brief spike down to the $330-$335 area. Glad to know that history supports this expectation.

Earl: Remember, WW's dictum that news follows price. When the market falls out of bed big time, the reasons will not become obvious for some time after prices have declined sharply. One thing for sure though. At current rarified levels, a tremendous cash inflow will be required just to support the current price structure, much less keep it moving higher.

The key will be the level of selling. Obviously very little of that over the past two months. But once the smart money starts to exit, I doubt that even $10 billion a week of mutual fund buying will be able to prop up this house of cards.

One interesting point re: 401k plans. Remember this is retirement money, and holders DO NOT HAVE TO PAY TAXES ON THEIR ACCRUED GAINS WHEN THEY Sell. People who have to pay capital gains taxes often thinks twice about taking profits; 401k money has no such inhibitions. So much of this long-term retirement money may come out of the market much faster than many think when priced head south and do not quickly rebound to new highs.

And with Congress and the Administration about to retroactively cut capital gains taxes, long-term money non-retirement money also will exit this market rapidly at the first sign of serious trouble.

Essentially we have a situation where frenzied greed is the only thing preventing a mass exodus from the market. And when greed turns to fear .....

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 06:14
Milhouse CB Gold Sales>(CB Gold Sales):

To : John Disney

Any country involved in a war will generally see its currency and debt instruments weakened due to the additional debt taken on and money created to finance the war. If China went to war with the US then the value of US debt owned by China would plummet in value although it could still be sold to anyone except the US Govt.

Virtually every action which is taken these days be governments and their CBs is motivated by short term objectives. You are right in that gold is the only money worth holding in a time of war, but unless a country's political and economic officials expect a war to break out in the next few days this will not be a consideration. Everything which is being done in Europe at the moment is an attempt to meet the apparently conflicting short term goals of achieving EMU requirements and reducing those unemployment numbers. Holding gold does not provide the instant gratification they desire.

Actually, the situation in Europe will likely go from bad to worse. More welfare spending will be needed to help the unemployed, which will require increased government spending and increased taxation, which will reduce real economic output, which will lead to higher unemployment and the need for increased spending and increased taxation, etc etc. The socialist machine will eventually lead to the total collapse of the European economy and subsequently a new monetary system based at least partly on gold.

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 05:46
Milhouse Knowledge = Power>(Knowledge = Power):

Haven't visited this site for some time because I was afraid to obtain more knowledge, and in the current market the more you know the less money you will make. This contention can actually be proved using basic laws of physics, as follows :

Most people would accept that -

Knowledge is Power

Time is Money

and, as every person knows:

Power = Work / Time

If Knowledge = Power, and Time = Money, then

Knowledge = Work / Money

Solving for Money, we get:

Money = Work / Knowledge

Thus, Money approaches infinity as Knowledge approaches zero,

regardless of the Work done. What this means is:

The Less you Know, the More you Make.

Those of you who are wondering why you cannot make money in the current gold market, it's because you know too much.

Regards, Milhouse

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 05:01
General Matsushita Tiger@Malaya>(Tiger@Malaya):
Dear Disney-san
Prease do not be harsh honolable bernie-san and
wacker-san. Flankry speaking, show velly poprurah
in Japan. Content rousy, howevers costumes tellific.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 04:50
Bernatz de Venterdorm small_village@needs_entertainment>(small_village@needs_entertainment):
For Monsiour D'Isgny
Mah fren, please be zo careful not to be offending
zoze marvellous jesters _ monsiour bernie and monsiour
wackair of varmint. Ah lov zat show - monsiour wackair
iss zo cute wiz hees leetle pom poms. And zat pointy
hat zat bernie wears - we lov heem in zee Pyranees.
Ah want to take zee rich peuples monay too - and chop
off zair heads - so zair monsiour zmartee pantz.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 03:07
Auric @>(@):

To anyone interested: Cover story in the June 7 to
June 13 issue of The Economist on the EMU.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 03:01
Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:44
Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out;
( The above corrects URL of previous post )

all what is about to happen. Ni

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 02:51
John Disney>(
To Anyone
On the subject pf CB gold. I can understand the
argument that gold should be replaced presumably by
interest bearing currency deposits. I assume these
would be short term government notes
But I have problens. Suppose there is a war.
The form in which you hold reserves is crucial. Say
you fight with China. Would the Chinese want to be
holding US Tbills? At maturity in 90 days for example,
does the US give them the dollars after they have
just nuked Washington ( a hopeful example ) ?
If you have weakish allies, do you hold their
notes, if you fear they may be overun by Chinese.
Might not gold be an essential part of a country's
reserves in wartime or any time of major disaster
What happened in World War two -
I know nothing about this area - I dont think many
people do. I would appreciate any comments - or any
guidance to appropriate reading.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 02:47
Ali @in the woods>(@in the woods):
Ted and Earl,if you want to talk about splitting wood I could talk along for the ride.I was brought up on it and I still do it to keep in shape.Tomorrow is another day for it.Hope to finish it for this year.Then I can spend more time again on the 'musings' of the enlightend on kitco.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 02:34
John Disney>(
For Bernie
Mistakenly read your posting since you addressed it
to me. I wont make that mistake again. You said that
you would NEVER advise others not to read MY postings
( as I had done yours ) .
Gee, was that a liberal guilt trip effort ? Go ahead,
mate, advise them not to. As Groucho said, I wouldn't
join any club that would have me for a member
Sorry but my review of the Bernie and Weenie show
in unfavorable. Weenie is cute in his cheerleader
outfit chanting Go Bernie but his statement that
conservatives only enjoy their meals if thay know
someone is starving was a tasteless cheap shot. For
me to counter with They are starving because of liberal
policies, would be a waste of time.
Your desire to take away the wealthy one per cent's
money is really funny and I imagine you in village idiot
dress as you say it. You think that is moral. I think
it is theft. I suggest you try breaking and entering
and take it away from them yourself rather than trying
to get the government to do it for you ( they never
will - since that one percent RUNS the government
anyway- particularly the left ) .
Sorry the costumes were cute but I enjoyed as much
of your show as I can stand.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 01:19
RJ Latin?>(Latin?):
Steve Puetz - I don't know what came over me, non compos mentis. I'm all better now.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 01:19
Well, Tiger Woods - match that and then you can play golf with MJ next week.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 01:18
nailz @ME TOO>(@ME TOO):
TED.... Me too....If I had a brain it would be completely blank about now....Tomorrow will generate deep thought on KITCO which will no doubt prove to be the saviour of the world !!!!!!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 00:16
Louis Reukeyser @ Wall Street Week>(@ Wall Street Week):
See my big smile. Gold-bugs, eat your heart out.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 00:12
Louis Reuleyser @ Wall Street Week>(@ Wall Street Week):
Alas, the gold-bugs weep once again. The bull market, as we have often mentioned, has many sources. The lean mean corporations that have downsized, globaly competitive American corporations, low inflation, a slow growing economy, expanding corporate profits, and a low interest rate environment. Gold-bugs, eat your heart out.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 00:09
TED @doubletomorrows>(@doubletomorrows):
It's too late to think ( good excuse ) ....Goodnight all and may GOLD shine next week!

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 00:06
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl: I'm four hours ahead of you and it's gettin late on the Atlantic coast so maybe tomorrow I'll e-mail you tomorrow about the fine art of wood splittin....I can hear the snickers out there...but there is alot to it...really...especially tryin to split SPRUCE...Wow, just because you live without electricity, you get accused of bein the Uni-bomber...Hasn't society gotten soft!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:59
VRONSKY....Look at my post again. I specifically mentioned the metals. I have no clue as to the XAUs performance in the past. I am trading it now because it has much more volitility than gold, so later I will know about the movements in it. The past of the XAU is a mystery to me. Remember I specifically said metals. It would be of great interest to me to have those of you astute in other markets to allow me to partake of you sagasity.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:54
Bulls win....AGAIN!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:45
Nailz: I could not disagree with you more about 'SPIKES' being needed to indicate reversals. Witness the rolling and bottoming trend of the XAU from December 1992 to the beginning of February 1993, which began a fabulously good bull market in gold stocks. SPIKES are definitely not required to mark a trend reversal - especially big reversals.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:44
PANDA and others .....While I am inclined to believe as do you that the DOW is in need of a steep correction, keep in mind that a tremendous amount of paper money has been created all over the world in the past few years. Almost every stock market in the world has seen gains that few would have ever expected. Maybe, just maybe, along with all the yuppie money from the US, this money may be looking for quality and the US is the current place of choice to park it. Look at Hong Cong. How many billions have been made there that may now be looking for a safe to park. Even if there is some risk in the US stock market right now, it still may be safer than left in HK for some people who may not be in favor with the incoming Chineese government. This upward trend in the DOW could continue for a long time and make even 7750 look cheap. This could also be the reason for the long bond having a run up. It is a fairly good place to park for a while. Who knows how high we will go ?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:43
panda @zzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzz):
Final comment for the evening; Just think of it, 4.5% a week on your money. Something akin to interest rates associated with third world currencies. I guess our printing presses are better though. :- ) )
After all, we now have new fifty Dollar bills to go with our Monopoly Money hundred Dollar bills. :- ) ) And look at all the stox we can buy with them! BTW, I think the S&P500 was up 4.1% this week. Take that, you silly NOW checking account! let's see, 1.041^50 = 7.46, so if I put a Dollar in today, in a year, I get $7.46. Hmmmmm, if I put $10,000 in I get $74,600..... Why work? :- ) ) :- ) ) They're coming to take me away, Ha Ha He He... To the funny farm where life is always wonderful!
Good night all!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:28
panda @>(@):
This chart is not a gold chart, but it is interesting never the less. It is a weekly chart of the Dow. In the past nine weeks we have had three weeks with 300+ point gains. If this rate of increase continues, it is Dow 9000 by the end of the year. Some how I just don't think it's in the cards though. If I guess at my bond chart correctly ( uh oh! ) , bonds score their final gains in this month and break 7.25% in October ( ! ) . This is all MVHO, of course. This is based purely on drawing straight lines. No magic formulas or any thing else. The Dow breaking? Look at the chart and form your own opinion, and yes, markets do fall of their own weight! What a noise this one will make! The danger here is in squeezed shorts and weak hands jumping in for the 'killing of a lifetime'. This could go on for another week or two like this, then oh boy! If it cools off, a trading range?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:27
If anybody read my last post and had the idea of watching for the downward spike to begin to add contracts, it can happen while you are gone to the can or just not paying attention. If you are paying attention and try to place a hurried order the call will be fast markets and you will not be filled. You will have to be holding your positions with stops that will not take you out, or have orders on the floor that are open or GTC. Now I don't recall any fast markets in the metals since 1993. Have any rules changed since then

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:13
nailz @TOPS and BOTTOMS>(@TOPS and BOTTOMS):
ALL...Tops and bottoms are almost always marked by spikes. Many of you think that the metals will just smooth over at the bottom and others say the stock market will just smooth over at the top. I don't think so. I have witnessed every top and bottom in the metals since 1974 in real time. They all had spikes. For no reason can I believe this one to be different. It may not look like much on a weekly 5 minute chart, but I believe the spike is necessary to move stops out of the commodity markets so a trend can reverse. Gold spikes downward may be $5-10 into new territory and silver spikes may be $.40-.60 downward. They generally are swift ( minutes ) and show as big blips on the daily real time charts. Tops generally are new tops of a very small degree after a downward motion of a few days and almost always are tested on the upside at least once more. On 2 of the downward spikes I got stopped out of half of very large positions that kept me from maximizing profits. One came within cents of stopping out the other half. Believe me, I remember them well !!!!! Stock market tops and bottoms I have not watched with the same great intensity and sense of urgency, but have none the less seen them.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 23:07
SORRY, looks like the line break will not access the URL when you hit
it. Type it in and you will get in.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:44
Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out;
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:41
Unless my bifocals are badly fogged up, I think I just saw a comment
about Steve Shobin of Lehman Bros. putting out a buy on gold stocks.
Maybe I'm dreaming, but check out;
4915/index.html Not being totally braindead, I think he just told us
all what is about to happen. Nite.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:31
WW @New England>(@New England):
Strad: Stop looking for an obvious event. The event that will reverse the markets is good old supply and demand. There will be no headline ,at least initially, like '29 and Japan '90. This current parabolic upswing ala '29 will exhaust demand. The ultimate causes of decline which we will hear about will be the reports of recession / depression /falling dollar/higher deficits which will be reported heavily after the Dow tumbles. NEWS follows Price! Gold may finally have its day when financials take it on the nose! THe inevitable maybe not close in price but definitely close in time. Sunnier days are coming when financials fall.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:29
Steve Puetz @ RJ>(@ RJ):
RJ: Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. You are forgiven.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:23
RJ OW!>(OW!):
O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper,
Which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour. ( Byron )

To atone for my sins... I bought a couple of gold coins today. A couple, is that all? Yes but they are proofs and I paid a hefty premium. The absolute worst way to buy gold. I’ll consider it penance.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:17
Strad Master>(
STEVE PUETZ: I really appreciate all the numbers ( although I'm sure they mean far mor to you than to a relatie novice like me ) . Nonetheless, I guess an implosion IS possible without an obvious trigger. Thanks for your input.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 22:14
Strad Master In a holding pattern>(In a holding pattern):
GEORGE S. COLE: Would be so kind as to tell us all when you do go into the Rydex Ursa? Many thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 21:54
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 21:36
Steve Puetz>(
Everyone must be watching the Bulls vs. Jazz. No posting for 45 minutes.
I can't find it now, but last-night someone said there was a review of Total Collapse in some recent publication. Whoever sent that notice, could you send me a copy of that review at:
Steve Puetz, 2800 Wilshire, West Lafayette, In 47906. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 21:30
Steve Puetz @ Strad Master -- burning question>(@ Strad Master -- burning question):
Strad Master: I just ran through some calculations.
Price-to-book ratio DJIA: 1987 - 2.72, 1929 - 4.03, 6-13-97 - 5.82 !!!
Price-to-book ratio S&P: 1987 - 2.50, 1929 - 3.20, 6-13-97 - 5.13 !!!
Dividend yields 6-13-97: DJIA - 1.63%, S&P 500 - 1.73%
Price-to-earnings 6-13-97: DJIA - 20.6, S&P 500 - 22.2
All of these valuation measures make the 1929 speculation look like small potatoes. It appears that much of the move this week was short-covering and speculation in the S&P 500 futures.

Look at these advance-decline numbers this week on the O-T-C market:
# of advances ( Monday thru Friday ) : 2042, 1960, 2007, 2147, 2175
# pf declines ( Monday thru Friday ) : 1981, 2149, 2019, 1928, 2084
About a scratch for the week.

Yes, the market could easily fall on its own weight. Especially when it's in the stratosphere like it is today.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:57
Strad: I hear yer fiddle. I think we are on the same wavelength. ( I'd say sheet but I don't read music )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:56
philby Oregon>(Oregon):
( ACW--cb's dumping gold ) This report doesn't make sense. My calculations show that 1.11 bln oz is about 42000 ton ( 12 oz.--2200 lb ) which at $325 per oz average sales price comes to 360 billion dollars. No way IMHO would gold bottom at $309--more like $200 per ounze taking out virtually all mining companies and investors.
It seems that it would be a lot wiser for central banks to revalue their holdings at market price ( whatever that would be after several occillations ) , and have formal agreements to allow a maximum sales of 5% of holdings in any one year. In twenty years the CB's would make tons more money, and allow a smooth transition to free market gold management.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:54
UNI: No, I am. 'N yer payin' fer me ISP.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:47
UNI @bomber>(@bomber):

Living w/o electricity for 7 years!? Been in the backwoods? Are you sure your not Ted K. chatting online from jail

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:46
Strad Master A burning question>(A burning question):
ALL: ( Especially GEORGE S. COLE, VRONSKY, STEVE PUETZ ) many of us believe that a top and crash/meltdown are imminent. George - you believe that around 8000 DOW is the high water mark. What I don't understand at the moment is this: barring some sort of unexpected triggering event - an earthquake in Japan, a war in Europe, Bill going to jail, etc. - what would cause it to go down? Do you feel it would it just melt down due to its own weight? Strange events stimulating a market collapse I understand but what if nothing happens to upset the apple cart?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:44
GFD Tight In The Shorts>(Tight In The Shorts):
George S. Cole: Beyond a question of a doubt the developments in palladium and the weak response by gold to that incredibly bearish fed report must be testing the shorts intestinal fortitude to the utmost. Excellent character development what!!


Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:39
GFD Amazment>(Amazment):
I never ceased to be amazed by the stuff that shows up at this site!

LSteve: The idea of gold being a Gen-X favored asset is both personally amazing and yet VERY thought provoking. In some ways this may be one of the more profound observations posted here. Hmmm. Very interesting! I have had a few conversations with tweeners and gen-x'ers and I have been very surprised at how sophisticated their world outlook is. The two who I had a chance to talk about things like Vince Foster, etc. not only were very aware of this issue but both had watched the Noam Chomsky's documentary Manufacturing Consent. Gads! I thought I was kind of leading edge on some of these issues and am now starting to feel a bit behind!!

If this is the level of sophistication for a large portion of the tweeners snd gen-x'ers out there, the Clinton Administration ( and the people behind it ) are toast.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:29
vronsky THE COMING RUN ON MUTUAL FUNDS - Saturday Premier Showing>(THE COMING RUN ON MUTUAL FUNDS - Saturday Premier Showing):
America has experienced bank runs and stock market crashes. Now get ready for granddaddy of them all - the great American mutual fund run. Appearing Saturday at your FAVORITE theater

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:15
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights:

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:05
Ted: You and I could begin a thread on just the mechanics of splitting firewood ( I do have a system ) but I believe it would exceed the forebearance of our fellows. Even more so than that dreadful SS thread and feeling good about helping humanity .... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... If you like, feel free to email me and we can discuss it.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 20:03
Panda: You either have a triangle OR A REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMING

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:58
Monetary Realist @Gravitational Theory>(@Gravitational Theory):
LSteve @raised eyebrows: Tweener - good one! The more I talk to people, the more in becomes plain to see that the younger you are the more sober you are. Granted I don't much talk to the under 25 crowd, but the ones around 30 seem to be low keyed and will not talk much about the future or economics. They seem to be more independent and are not relying upon someone or something else to provide for them in the coming years.

When I sat down and did that post I wasn't angry, though after printing it out and going over it, a few parts read that way. As most have already figured out when I used the term boomer it was in regards to that humanist/enviro-liberal mentality that is so prevalent today. That New Economics thinking - this time its different, we are all going to get rich, 20 year economic prosperity , business cycles are history, they owe it to us, vote for my favorite entitlements programs, what - the DOW went up only 65 points today, soak the rich, the day of judgment will never happen, global village idiots, John Law hero worship, Keynesian doublethink kind of person. The exact kind that is in control of americas future right now. The kind of person who will not think twice about selling the coutry down the river in order to get elected, and who will be written about in the new history books about how they ruined the economy for furture generations.

As to the CB's selling all the gold that they have, why not? Wish that they would so that we will no longer need them anymore. But I wouldn't count on it. Better odds in them trying to take all of yours away...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:55
George Cole: After reading the apocalyptic thread from earlier this afternoon, I have been thinking about how that sudden dislocation would take place.

The volume of funds flowing into MFs is staggering and while it has slowed, it sure as hell hasn't stopped. Someone earlier quoted 5 billion a week. That would act like a gigantic inertial wheel mitigating the initial departure of the smart money. I assume that, it is the departure of smart that will begin to unhinge the market.

The funds, from all appearances, make up the bulk of current activity. Pension funds are also slow to move as well.

The question in my mind is this: Is the departure of the smart money enough to overcome the natural momentum of fund buying and thereby allow a sudden downdraft to occur? The reason I am wondering about the validity of major dislocation, is because we have never experienced this amount of money in stocks that is not likely to pulled with 200 or 300 point down move. .... I am assuming, of course, that there is not an outside event that will frighten the crap out of all of us. ...... As usual, I probably don't understand all of the pieces.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:52
Tortfeasor Redheads>(Redheads):
Ted, I don't have a redhead joke handy but I'll keep it in mind. The trouble is I have a redheaded sister and my secretary is redheaded. I have to mind my manners. I'm getting geared up to watch the Jazz again in an hour. I hope that they don't flop over and play dead like they did the last half of the game Wednesday.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:43
panda @>(@):
George S. Cole -- I know people who jumped in to the index funds less than a year ago ( more like nine-ten months ago ) , they are currently up 29%. I share your amazment at this market action of late. If the market 'corrected' twenty percent ( 1500+ points! ) , these folks who got in less than a year ago would be a little above break-even. Given the 'buy and hold mentality', these fund holders are unlikely to bolt from the market. They are more likely to hold on for a ten, twenty, or more percent loss. Especially given that most are playing with retirement money, and do not perceive an immediate need for the money. The caveat here is, at some point the loss becomes too much to bear psychologically. That is the point of real panic selling, For whatever you can get me! Get me out now! Sell at the market! MF managers on the other hand? Really got to go now, BBL.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:43
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 13, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 13, 1997 Report):
Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:30
TED @independanceday>(@independanceday):
Time fer a movie...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:27
panda @>(@):
Without further ado, FWIW,


Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:25
TED @earl>(@earl):
Earl:, I know what you mean about age and wood heat as I'm feelin a little sore after a couple of weeks of chainsawin and wood splittin with what's called a monster maul ( 40 pound metal maul ) ...if ya can get it over your head and just drop it...SPLIT...I'm determined to stay young physically cause that's my strong suit...never was much fer readin or writin....You can't be that old!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:22
George S. Cole bear market>(bear market):
Panda: I have long felt that a long, slow, grinding bear market such we gold bugs have experienced over the past 17 months is more likely than a 1929 or 1987 type crash. However, the market atmosphere has become so frenzied of late that a crash is a real possibility.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 19:02
Ted @15:11: Ely MN and environs? Thats the spot. Small world; ain't it? After the energy crisis thing in the 70s, I converted to wood heat here in Portland. For many years I reverted to old ways and cut my own wood. Then it was decided by the anointed that the national forests of Oregon and Washington, really belonged only to those who were sensitive and caring. It then became too difficult to find decent wood to cut and was forced to buy it. In retrospect it was always a pleasant, physical activity but the prospect of being forced to do it is now daunting. It's an age thing you know.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 18:36
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Tarnished: Can you read this or are you still in the dark?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 18:28
TED @crashprotectionteam>(@crashprotectionteam):
Hi Panda!...What league do they play in?...hope they're better than the Bosox....Bring on the long bond chart...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 18:15
Anyone hear of the, Crash Protection Team? Yes folks, they are for real. Whether they can stop a depression or not, I don't know. This I do know, anyone expecting the market to lose half it's value in one day....... Well, some things are better left unsaid. A more probable scenario would be a sharp crack in the indexes followed by a rebound ( like we haven't seen this before! ) , but the rebound tops out below the previous high. Sooner or later we wind up in a grinding bear market. A nice slow tortuous affair that leaves the bulls dead and the bears wounded. That's right, I said bears wounded. The bears have taken a pounding of late. In a bear market, some people think, I'll just go short and make a ton of money. Wrong! Bears markets don't go straight down! They go up too! That's what sucks the life out of the bull, the repeated hope for, 'The rally' to begin the new bull. These are usually sharp, short covering rallies that catch some bears by surprise on the right side, but at the wrong time! But more than anything, it's the slooow grinding down that slowly kills everyone. Just look at the gold mining share for the last year plus, and remember how you felt during this period. Remember the little rallies on the way down? Someday that shoe will be worn by other stock holders. Didn't mean to lecture, but let's not party just yet. Things are looking promising for the metals with the breakout of the PGMs. I just want to see a couple more pieces fall in to place. Thirty year bond chart coming soon....

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 18:10
Timothy McVeigh @lethalinjection>(@lethalinjection):
Don't shot me up!...I want the lead!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 17:47
Bob M>(
Bob- well said. You have hit on a major major point, the mindset of young people, and gold does not fit into that plan, short of a major catastrophe. The point about mines forward selling is well taken also, until that dries up...flat to down. I have believed all along that the likely way for gold to go is down still, $200 an ounce would be a more realistic price...Cheers

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 17:45
LSteve @raised eyebrows>(@raised eyebrows):
To: Monetary Realist

Interesting post this morning. I myself am a tweener ( between the Gen X and Boomers ) , and have younger siblings and cousins. I try to talk to older friends or family about future economic activity and their eyes glaze over. They don't even want to think about it. However when I talk about this to my younger sisters and cousins I'm amazed at how much they know and think about this topic. Several of them are actually doing something about it. When my one cousin changed jobs she took her 401K money and paid the taxes and 10% penalty and put the rest into physical gold. She ended up with over 60 oz. Another cousin has bought a small farm in southern Iowa and is beginning a food storage program. These kids seem to intuitively know whats going to happen and are making preparations. Anyway, good luck.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 17:37
Bob @ forget inflation or FED hikes, earnings will lead DOW up or down>(@ forget inflation or FED hikes, earnings will lead DOW up or down):
If Mr. Market is following a strong Efficient Market Hypothesis then the party ends when earnings show flat. The FED rate hike/inflation story is dead here in G7 territory - it has been exported to the LDC ( Lesser Developed Countries ) markets.

The current Bull theme is that LDC's markets are opening wide with special reference to China SE Asia. Consumer demand form this area is feuling profits of the American Dream corporataions. The DOW comprises the classic American economic engine ( even without MSFT + INTC ) and responds according to the boom scenario.

When does the music stop and the folks runs for the chairs ?

The best guess is probably the next round of earnings reports that should reflect the recent news on lower US retail sales. This should be the beginning of the end of a chain of recessionary indicators that will do what the FED can't do in the absence of domestic inflation - however figured / spun.

So GS Cole's forecast for summer DOW follies make sense if the earnings picture turns sour.

What happens to gold ?

We can ruminate on the prospects for gold in context of recent white metal action but the writing on the wall suggests that gold will be still in a funk until CB's stop selling at a magic price and gold miners reduce selling forward at these prices. It will take a fundamental change in demand/supply of physical gold to turn this mother bear around.

I don't think we will see a financial crisis sufficient to unlodge the US$ from the mantle of currency of last resort.

In this regard we only need to think about recent history and its impact on the US$. The FSU ( Former Soviet Union ) had a lively black market in US$'s. In Russia you do business with US$ as with other FSU countries. The Ruble is for the average folks who buy subsistance goods like bread and vodka. The point is clear: the US$ reigns supreme in a nation ( Russia ) that is a major ( 2nd or 3rd - I understand ) supplier of gold.

The gold metal is a relic to the young financial wizards and decision-makers in the canyons of South Manhattan or The City of London.

The gold market is downplayed by the demographic and psychological profile of new money managers who relate the product to jewelry and as a monetary mindset in financial history before the onset of the Information Age ( circa 1981 birth of PC ) that runs on silicon and carbon and industrial processes that - to a very minor extent - use gold in the production function.

Gold is tending more to the dynamic of the commodity market than to the financial reserve market since the dawning of the Information Age - check the stats and see the trend/chart and tell me something I am missing please.


Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 17:32
Timothy McVeigh @electricchair>(@electricchair):
Don't flip that switch!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 17:31
George Cole: Great observation on the report versus gold price. The shorts now have the weekend to consider it.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:55
Stokes and J. Disney- I do not know the direction of the Rand, probably down but at what rate is a big question. A fallin Rand is good for the SA gold shares and that is why I am out of them for now. I have a meeting scheduled for the week of July 1st with a top SA currency and stock analysts and I plan to pick his brain on that question.

Most of my shares made up a lot of the down yesterday. Tried to add to KRY and AZS but too fast for me.

Tally HO

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:48
bw Please stay open:>(Please stay open:):
GFD: Sure hope you are correct about the financial markets staying open until I can close out my metal longs. I can wire cash to physicals in a couple of minutes. My fear is that that may not be fast enough.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:24
George s. Cole gold shorts>(gold shorts):
GFD: You pays your money and you choose you scenario.

BTW, wonder how many of the gold shorts knew in advance about the Fed study advocating the CBs sell all their bullion. More than a few I suspect. Some of these shorts must be a mite nervous now that the news is out and bullion fell only 50 cents.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:23
bw Dow drive:>(Dow drive:):
Bob M: It looks to me we may have a sellers strike in the dow. If no one is willing to sell it takes little buying to force prices up a lot. The potential spec shorts have had their heads handed to them so frequently they are gun shy. The longs are looking for 10,000 at least to sell. The inflow into the mutual funds has been running at about 5 billion a week last couple of weeks. The funds are probably also running down their cash that should be more than enough to support this blow off given reluctant sellers. Watch the flow into the funds, should it pick up and the funds panic this blow off could get real interesting. If there is one thing the funds have learned over the last few years, its that the cash has to be put to work as soon as its received.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:19
GFD Base II>(Base II):
Whoops!! that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less constructive action. should be that gold being the last of the precious metals TO START MOVING will need less constructive action.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:16
GFD Base>(Base):
George S. Cole: I agree that the PGM's built a good technical base before lifting off. My scenario ( which, of course, could be completely out to lunch ) is that gold being the last of the precious metals will need less constructive action. More precisely, gold could start moving in a commodity panic driven by short covering and inventory accumulation which could be started if the Russians don't provide deliverance to the palladium markets ( and all those poor Japanese shorts ) .

BTW the book I was refering to in my earlier post is Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises by Charles P. Kindleberger NOT Kiplinger as started earlier.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:14
George s. Cole forecasts>(forecasts):
BOB M: I have not predicted $3000 gold, but that price would not surprise me. What I said was that if capital ever starts to run scared in this country as it was in the 1930s, gold would soar to at least $3000 an ounce. I stand by that statement.

While most baby boomers claim to be in for the long hall, very few have experienced a bear market. We shall see how many of them stick it out when the market drops 20-30% and doesn't quickly recover. I suspect many will dump everything near the bottom.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:13
John Disney>(
For Stokes
Re the rand. You ask tough questions. In general,
I would expect the rand to weaken against the dollar
by the difference between their inflation rates. Ten
per cent versus 3 percent - making a likely fall of
7 per cent per year of the rand versus the dollar.
However, I believe that the latest fall was overdone
and has placed the rand near the top of a channel at
about 4.7-4.8 to the $. Since it seems to be testing
4.5 pretty hard now I think a rerun up to the top of
the channel is likely - beyond that I would not
worry too much. However bear in mind that I have been
wrong in the past using this methodology more often
than I like to recall. Im curious what Ray thinks.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:06
George S. Cole Dow Peak?>(Dow Peak?):
One of the participants on the Golddigger thread who has been pretty good on calling the markets thinks the Dow peaked today at 7845 intraday. Even if he is correct, I suspect the Dow will hang around these rarified levels for a few weeks before breaking sharply. And small caps and mid caps could move up considerably further even if the Dow starts treading water.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:05
GFD Apocolapse Later>(Apocolapse Later):
bw: I seriously doubt that the exchanges will close immediately in the aftermath of a stock market plunge. And frankly I don't expect an immediate impact on the economy either. Unlike 1929 when everyone bought stocks on 5% margins, the current market could collapse to zero without affecting ( immediately ) peoples day to day lives. What it would mean for most people is that they would have a less comfortable retirement some time in the future.

Face it. Most public money in the markets reflects savings in one form or another - and North America is not into savings in any case. All the crash could mean is that measly savings levels get worse. So?

Over time ( 12-18 ) months you would see economic contractions as people cut back on spending as they react to a serious reverse wealth effect. How things would play out after that is not clear to me.

I guess what I am saying is that many financial assets are so decoupled from reality that it does not matter how they are priced - high or low.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 16:04
Bob M>(
George S. Cole- the scary part is that this market may continue to rise for the next several years. Of course, there will be many bumps along the way, some very deep, but it is my contention that the only thing that will kill the stock market is a major, major turn in investor sentiment to get out of stocks and move to something better. I believe the baby boom bunch will be much tougher then people think to get out of this market. It will probably take a war or a major catastrophe to change the attitude. I cant believe in your writing that you call for $3000 gold? I have heard people speculate like that since 1980. It is very hard to imagine. Thanks George for your insights.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:53
George S. Cole Fed Policy>(Fed Policy):
MOREGOLD: Greenie knows what's coming but does not want to be blamed for ending the biggest party in stock market history. All past bear markets have been preceded by substantial Fed tightening, but I suspect IT WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.

Next bear probably will begin without any more tightening. This could be the sleight of hand that keeps most in the market too long. After all if inflation is low, the Fed won't tighten, and if the Fed won't tighten than a bear market is impossible. Right?

I'm sure the Fed and Treasury have worked out elaborate scenarios on how to respond to a market meltdown. Little doubt they will be buying futures heavily if things get really bad in lower Manhattan. Will they be able to prevent a meltdown if one starts to develop? We shall see soon enough.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:46
TED @front>(@front):
Front: Yeah, I got Koss speakers.....must be the other thingy...I was a luddite until January when I bought the lead me through it..

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:40
TED @tort>(@tort):
Hi Tort: Do you have a joke about DUMB Redheads...hahahaha...the world is full of FOOLS...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:38
George S. Cole Rydex Ursa>(Rydex Ursa):

I also was in Rydex Ursa back in April when the market started its latest surge. I sold these shares a few days after the market exploded for a loss of about 5% and got long in a hurry. When you are short NEVER NEVER let your losses run.

There is little doubt the market will turn south soon, but no one really knows how high it will go before that happens. My best guess is about Dow 8000, but Dow 8500 or even Dow 9000 cannot be ruled out.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:35
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:35
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz ( 13:19 ) I second what Patti said about your set-up in the country as it sounds great!...Some local people are trying to reclaim their land at Scaterie Island from the goverment and that's where I'd like to set up shop!...There's a beautiful place there called Tin Cove that has a sandy beach and 100 feet behind that a fresh water pond with great tasting water...Tin Cove is also the only place you can land at the island during storms and high seas....I know from experience...

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:29
Redhead @TEDhead>(@TEDhead):
TED: do you have to flirt with ALL the female posters?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:27
MoreGold @Westboy>(@Westboy):
You are right, it's inevitable and it's comming, the only question is when. I am surprised that Greenspan isn't trying to slow this stock market mania down. What happened to the irrational exuberence worries he had when the dow was a couple of thousand points lower?
Is Greenspan now implying that the market is safe by his deafening silence?
Who will be buying the multi billions of stock sale orders when the market finally tops and everyone wants their cash and heads for the exit doors at the same time? Answer: No-one.
When the margin calls are triggered, how will they liquidate the client positions to settle the margin calls if they can't liquidate?
When it finally comes, this may not be a crash, it may be a meltdown.
Does the Fed have any contingency plans to cope with this?
Robert Prechter's call for a 600 or 700 dow may not be that impossible.
Scary, even for Goldbugs.....

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:22
TED @patti>(@patti):
Patti ( 12:46 ) Great post and enjoyed your winter story!...With all the gloom+doom talk about the economy-stock market you'd think more people would be preparing themselves by learning to be more self-sufficent and not being so DEPENDANT on a system they don't believe in...especially people on a Gold forum!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:18
general to Byron>(to Byron):
7800 and higher will be called: national down-the-tubes-R-Us
when this house of cards comes crashing down. Keep your gold
and PGM positions and start building cash to buy the Blood on
the streets .

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:12
Earl ( 12:11 ) I take after my father's side of the family ( thank God ) and they are from St.Paul...Spent much time in Ely MN...Funny you should mention hot showers and saunas as we had BOTH in Vermont and without electricity...The efficent wood-burning sauna took very little wood to get nice and hot...Hot showers came from a water jacket in the wood stove plus a solar collector on the roof...No outhouse either as we had a compost toilet made by a company founded by Abbey Rockefeller of all people...I have NEVER trusted the system and now find it ironic that I am defending the stock market...Ain't life strange!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:10
Byron @ Approaching 7800 on the Dow:>(@ Approaching 7800 on the Dow:):
If December was irrational exhuberance, what is 7800 Dow called

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 15:01
GVC @fidelity amer gold top ten>(@fidelity amer gold top ten):

Top Ten Holdings

as of 04/30/97











Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:56
Cassandra @westboy>(@westboy):
Westboy: hahahahaha..who's getting led to slaughter...hahahaha

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:55
I have been an investor in the RYDEX URSA mutual fund which
basically shorts the S&P 500 futures and options contracts.
Needless to say, I am in the whole on this. Should I bail
out all together or average in more purchases as the Dow
continues to climb? At this point, I'm about ready to invest
in Meals-Ready-to-EAt ( MREs ) as a food storage item and resell
them for 2-3 times original cost when our financial and ulimate
consumer infrastructure falls apart. Even if it doesn't, I have
a tasty ( so I've been told ) food item that will last on my shelf
for years and may tide me over if I lose my job. Thoughts on any
of this?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:49
Westboy @huffin and puffin>(@huffin and puffin):
Lambs being led to their eventual slaughter. Most of these lambs just don't realize this blowoff is the worst possible thing that could happen. It guarantees a violent reversal down the road, one in which it will be impossible for them to get out. And , the buy the dippies crowd will watch in horror after they buy more after the first dip expecting the dow to go to 10000 only to see another multi thousand point drop develop. I may have scoffed at those looking for dow 1000 a while back, but no longer. I fear the worst now.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:41
Patti @home>(@home):
Nailz - spelling mistake forgiven - your set-up in the country sounds perfect!! My son and family just bought a country home up north. He hooked a trailer on the back of his ATV, threw in some bails of hay and took hubby and I on a tour through the 100 acres of bush, up and down sand dunes, etc. I felt like a teenager on a hay ride again. There were bear claw marks on the trees and lots of deer tracks. I told him I'm getting too old for change and when I come to visit I'll bring my chicken or roast beef, but he has a bear in the freezer now, and I'm sure we'll be treated to an original menu the next time we're up north, like it or not.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:35
bw Shut down:>(Shut down:):
GFD: Concur with your ideas. I am ticked off about the way it is playing out because it may not be possible to use the financial system for leverage on even the first part of the coming metals bull market. I used to think I would load up on metal futures after the financial markets had topped out and sell into the rise for at least the first 20%-40% of the bull. I still plan on doing that. But the longer and more insane this stock mania gets the greater the possibility the financial markets will shut down before any profits can be sucked out of winning metal accounts. And when the financial markets shut down any account winnings may become an instant liability, given our lovely gov. Best to be flat then.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:30
George s. Cole gold bear>(gold bear):
Gold stocks now down modestly after giving up early gains. August gold off 30 cents. This bear is going to end shortly, but may have a few more loud growls left.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:24
Patti @old>(@old):
Earl, that old guy is much younger than I am, and is no longer a broker. I think he couldn't stand the stress - now he's an accountant - maybe he just makes more money in the latter occupation. He did regale me with stories about the '29 crash, but I think they were gleaned from his grandfather. ( you know - you could buy someone's car if you bought them a week's worth of groceries - that type of thing )

In my day it took at least a week to spend a week's wages. Nowadays for many young people the only way to balance the budget is the ad hoc approach. If they want to add something they have to hock something else. They have the highest standard of living in the world - they just can't afford it. I don't mind being oldish and hopefully wiser. It's nice to reach the stage where you can spend what you have left after saving, instead of saving what you have left after you spend. This way you can even invest in gold stocks and get your excitement from the market, instead of worrying about being too old for modern fashions ( like topless ones! :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:21
George S. Cole>(
GFD: In time gold will explode to the upside just like the whites. But I doubt the move will START this way. The whites did not explode from the bottom, but established solid technical uptrends before they took off.

Steve Puetz: The 1929 and 1987 crashes did not come out of the blue. They both were preceded by about 2 months of modest downward pressure before things got out of hand. If this pattern repeats, a crash ( if we do indeed get one ) is not likely until fall.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:20
panda @>(@):

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:06
Bob A to Earl and Panda>(to Earl and Panda):
Dizard of Nat. Review has my ear. He recommended a plat gold spread at least 3 months ago long before plat. started this recent move. He also spelled out SWC. John Dessauer,investment letter writer, in most recent issue added Placer Dome to his buy list, prior to this he did not like gold.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:02
bw Great joke:>(Great joke:):
Tort: Thanks mucho for the commodities broker joke. I have been unsuccessful at four attempts to tell it ( twice to brokers ) . I break up on the punch line. So I tell it to my self over and over, laughing each time, once so hard my stomach cramped up, is it possible to actually die laughing?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 14:01
Am having a heck of a hard time with phone lines today....Need to mow yard and work in garden anyway..PATTI...sorry about mis-spelling you name

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:56
Stokes whether@S.A.Rand >(whether@S.A.Rand ):
To Ray and John Disney:
What is your take on the South African Rand? Will it decline further against the US Dollar? If yes, by a lot? When do you believe it will turn stronger? The reason I ask is that I want to pick up some WDEPY and HGMCY. Thanks

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:43
EWP@MonetaryRealist EWP@MonetaryRealist>(EWP@MonetaryRealist):
MonetaryRealist: Good 9:57a.m. post!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:33
Patti: How is it you were able to find such an 'old guy' for a broker?.... ( :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:31
GFD It's the end, my friends>(It's the end, my friends):
Gold action today in the face of the mother of all bad news - a federal reserve study recommending selling off all gold reserves - will likely be seen as the definitive signal that the bottom is in. While I completely respect George S. Cole's view that confirming market data is required I suspect that the bull market in gold not be hesitant and stumbling but rather abrubt and violent like palladium.

And zinc ( as I recall ) . DA your post a few days ago summing up the inventory liquidation in zinc which occurred in the face of a declining market will likely be seen as the definitive explanation for what has been happening in gold over the last few years. When I say this I am viewing metal leases and even forward gold sales as all a form of inventory liquidation. Who needs declining - non productive - assets on the books

Earl, think you have said it very well in your 00:04 comments about the DOW: It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it.. In Kiplinger's classic book on manias and panics he has a great story about the south sea bubble even dragging sophisticated investors in because it was so strong and long lasting that they essentially had no choice if they wanted competetive returns.

This is the story of the last legs of this market. More and more money flowing into the SPX or Dow stocks from less competetive ( but diversified ) mutual funds. There is no way that one can predict when a parabolic will top out. I think that you can predict WHEN it will but given the power still in evidence I suspect this will go higher and last longer than anyone here will be able to stand. I still think it is possible that the Dow could hit 10,00 by the fall - although my knees tremble at the thought.

One thing that stands out about this the current investment millieu are the incredible risks that are starting to emerge, particularly in things like option writing. Call writers on SPX are going to be murdered on the way up and Put writers on the way down. Call writers in gold and silver stand to be decimated.

What this will do to the larger derivatives market is not knowable but frightening nontheless. Derivatives are constructed based on historical risk factors and the types of market action we are and will be witnessing will exceed historical standards by a significant margin. I am surprised that we have not seen more problems in derivatives than we have to date.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:26
Eldo: You may be sure that such distribution would be made, only, to the impoverished so that the anointed might then have the opportunity to manage it for them. ... sans pro bono. Of course. ..... Speaking of which. It's a never ending source of amusement to observe the actions of many of the Native American groups, in recent years. They continue to screw Uncle Sugar, frustrate the anointed, separate the 'red necks' from their dinaro and generally prosper in spite of the best efforts of the anointed and the socially responsible.

They have educated many of their own people who now use the law of the anointed to serve the ends of their own people. While the state and fed govts howl and squeal...... A guy has to have a defective sense of humor to not enjoy the proceedings..... Whether the people are using the proceeds wisely is another matter. But that is their business.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:22
Bob M>(
Where is all this money coming from to drive the Dow the way it has? People dont seem to be curbing their spending that much, maybe from savings? Does anyone have a take on this?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:19
TED and PATTIE.........Let me preface this comment by saying I am not a survivalist and I hope and pray the country never gets to the point of starving mobs, etc.....However, I own a farm so far out in the sticks even I have to have a map to get there....It has running water and a 16 inch seam of coal....I have a small mobile home at a nearby resort and a truck to pull it. 2 chain saws and plenty of tools for gardening ( That reminds me...I have to go work in garden now ) ....I live in town about 75 miles from the farm and there are no cities near the farm....The farm is rented out and has paid for its self X 3 in the 15 years I have owned it...I use the trailer at the resort for fun and camping. There is a small boat for fishing and river transportation. I purchased these things I wanted anyway, with the thought far in the back of my mind that they could be an insurance policy if the ultimate economic disaster struck.... An insurance policy I could use and enjoy now....And yes Ted, I know how to garden, fish and hunt.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:19
panda @recommended>(@recommended):


Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:14
Ron Not Selling>(Not Selling):
D.A, Eldo: I'd love to see gold out of govt coffers, too, and in the hands of individual hoarders -- as long as there are lots and lots of them. But if this idea goes anywhere, and given the CBs dismissive attitude toward AU as money, it might, it'll be bad news for holders of both aboveground and belowground stocks, as the paper makes clear.

As the paper also makes clear, if such sales and loans do take place -- and the authors argue that the sooner it happens the greater the govt's profit -- the news should come out of the blue also to maximize the govt's take.

But there's bound to be lots of resistance to such a move by governments that have been stung in the past by insufficient gold stocks. So I think the chances are pretty slim.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:09
Bob A: As a former subscriber of the inestimable Herr Dines, I would feel more comfortable should he recommend a short on SWC. He is often wrong ... but always positive.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:06
DA: The CB's passing out the gold to the citizens: What a great idea! And you are right - far too simple and far too good for the citizens for our trusted civil servants to speak of it. This would be worth writing to congress about at the right time. I bet a lot of those contributing and lurking here would participate.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:05
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
SWC was recently recommended by J. Dines and Dizard of Nat. Review. I sold some at 24and 3/8 and will re-buy soon, I hope. I understand they are having a management shake up.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:05
D.A.: Speaking of asymptotes, the DOW action for the last 7 sessions is doing a great job of describing one. New eras are so pleasant to comtemplate. Especially, when those of the past were so bitter in the end. But this one will be different. It must be. I'm sure it will be. ..... I really need it to be. ...and so it goes.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 13:05
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Earl -- Wouldn't it be something if gold went to 50 bucks before the government actually decided to sell it all? And those purchases by the people made with inflated dollars to boot! What a hoot! Let's see now, the One World crowd putting independence 'stuff' back in peoples hands for almost free. Wouldn't happen!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:53
George Cole: It appears that the 'monetaries' can also be added to your positive column today. The DM looks to be resuming its former downtrend and all the others are down with the exception of the BP. Bonds are up, the dollar index is up, God is in his heaven and all is right with the world. ..... And yet gold is stable and the XAU is mildly positive. It's so easy to read more into these things than they deserve. Even on a one day basis but do you have a sense that there may be a decoupling of the currencies and gold? Recently, it just doesn't seem to react to them in any fashion. Maybe it's just one more indication that gold is indeed dead. Never to rise again, RIP.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Ron -- I, for one, would welcome the gold sales. All that gold should be in the peoples hands anyway! That's where most of it once was, and that is where it never should have left. That being the case, the possibilty of the government 'working' on the behalf of 'the people' are either slim or none. In other words, don't count on it happening!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:46
Patti @selfsufficient>(@selfsufficient):
Crash - An ex-stock broker friend called the other day. The market terrifies him. He remembers the '87 crash and watching the Dow drop from about 1900 to about 1200. It felt like death. He thinks things look so much worse now. He said he'd rather see the crash now, than see the Dow go to 10,000, which will be much worse. He thinks that even banks could close and people be begging for money. Paper would still be good at that point, and he believes that everyone should hide about $5000 in cash to have on hand just in case. Forget about the interest you lose on it ( I told him that was easy, since I'd already lost so much on my gold stocks ) , but at least you'd have some money when you needed it. He does believe that gold will go up once the initial crash is over.

Ark and Ted - I agree with you Ted. Self-sufficiency should be everyone's goal. Ark, for people that can't grow a garden or do some chainsawin, they can still be self sufficient. Even in an apartment you can store some dehydrated or freeze dried food under the bed, grow herbs on a windowsill in pots, put a fancy cloth over a big bucket of wheat and use it for a bedside table.

Once on a visit to Gettysburg I found lovely old coal oil lanterns that mounted on a wall. I also store candles. We have an airtight stove, which I realize wouldn't be possible in an apartment, but I believe that you can buy propane type heaters that could be used in an emergency if the power was off, or if you're in a house, a propane fireplace can offer some security for power outages. People are only unprepared because they're apathetic and don't believe anything can happen. If you want to prepare for emergencies, there are ways, even in the middle of the city in an apartment.

Crash, I'm not a survivalist, but a lot of their tips are good. If you want to eat during difficult times, store food. If you want to protect that food for your family, weapons help. I have a bit of gold bullion just in case and some junk silver. Be independent!

We bought canned dehydrated foods when our children were at home. We just wanted to be able to feed them if times became tough. When they married and left, we gave a lot of the stuff to them to take with them. We still have a certain amount of it left. Think what you'd want if you couldn't get out to a store and had no electrical power - then prepare. It's better to be safe than sorry. I'm glad I never had to use the things I collected, but it gave me a lot of security when we were raising a family. It prevents a lot of worry and stress.

When two of our children were pre-schoolers we moved from the city to the country. My first winter there was an education. We had unwittingly moved to a snow-belt within a snowbelt. My husband got storm-stayed at work ( 25 miles away ) for one full week. A blizzard raged, it was -15 F. and the winds were 75 miles per hour. Freddy the fish froze in the goldfish bowl. Although I'd dumped antifreeze down the drains, still some pipes froze. I dressed the kids in snowsuits and we danced and wiggled our fingers and toes and sang to keep warm. After two days with no heat we were snomobiled out to a neighbours' who had rigged up an old wood stove in the kitchen. Prior to that, I had tried to heat soup with a candle. It doesn't work well. All you want is something hot to warm your insides. We had lots of canned salmon, tuna, ham, etc., but no way of heating anything. A hot meal is very soothing when you're freezing. We made lots of sandwiches for hydro workers that came by snomobile after three days. Drifts were 12 to 24 feet high on some of the roads. It took days to open them. Huge plows came in from Toronto, since we had no big snow blowers in those days. After 27 years here, I'm used to snow up to the garage roof, and I'm also prepared. One week can make a big difference in a person's life.

You may not be able to afford everything at once, but even a little each pay check helps. And from my experiences in the stock market, I think you'd better get the practical things first ( we've got our chainsaw, Ted ) . After the market you might not have much cash left with which to buy anything.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:43

It is not surprising to see a report such as this appear. No doubt politicians worldwide salivate at thought of a freebie of this magnitude. You can be sure that the method of disposal which would be of the greatest benefit to the general welfare will never be discussed. Simply divvying up the bullion and giving every citizen the piece that is their's.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:23
Looks like a varry good day to be pickin up BARGAINS on gold stocks.

What is the best way to short the market? S&P puts Which one

Tally HO

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:21
Ron in Sack-o-tomatoes>(in Sack-o-tomatoes):
Re ACWs ominous report @1:04, the original full-text version of the paper is available at Just look for the last item under Working Papers. You'll need a PostScript viewer ( Ghostscript works nicely, and is free. See ) .


This paper assesses both qualitatively and quantitatively the aggregate welfare gain and distributive consequences of selling or lending out the massive stocks of aboveground gold currently held by governments and international institutions. A model of the gold market is constructed which, unlike the standard model of extraction of a service-gneerating durable, allows for uses that reduce the stock ( depletion ) instead of mere depreciation. Additional gold can be made available to private agents either by extracting it from mines at a relatively high cost or by taking it from government stocks at zero cost. To maximize aggregate surplus, all zero-cost gold should be used before any high-cost ore is extracted; moreover, all gold available at zero cost should be furnished to the public immediately. We consider two policies, each of which induces the optimal allocation as a competitive equilibrium. These two policies belong to a class of policies which induce optimal allocation. Current policy, however, is not a member of this class. Hence welfare gains are possible if current policy is changed. Using a calibrated model, we estimate these gains to be $136 billion in aggregate, $90 billion of which would accrue to governments and the balance to the private sector.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:17
Panda, SWC recommended by whom? I missed that one, but just bought a bunch more this morning, so if the price drops this afternoon you guys will know why : )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:11
Ted: In many ways I admire your drive for self sufficiency. I hope to hell it proves unnecessary in the end but it's a bet I'm unwilling to make. I have considered the same course myself on many occasions over the years but priorities and resources never crossed. Who knows, the future may make the decision for us. I hope not, for I still enjoy the luxury of a hot shower in the morning and a sauna is a prodigious consumer of hand cut firewood.

Having had the mixed fortune to grow up on my grandfathers homestead in norhern MN, I can relate to an era without electricity and the amenities that implies. I'm sure there are many others here, who have been similarly discommoded ( pun intended ) at some time in their lives. In our more illucid moments we may even look back on those days with a certain fondness. ......... Until we recall an outhouse at 40 below. .... or 90 above for that matter.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 12:01
vronsky lest we forget...>(lest we forget...):
“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist in 1929

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:54
panda @?>(@?):
SWC and GGO get 'buy' recommendations... Geeeez, as the worm turns! When was the last time that you heard of a buy recommendation on a gold stock!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:52
Tortfeasor Bonus Joke>(Bonus Joke):
Panda, if I were in emergency care I would not want to see this gold chart on my heart monitor. All of you forebearing and foreboding goldbugs need a little levity to get you through the doldrums of this day. Hi, Ted, forgot to wish you good morning but this will have to do.
Here's the additional story.

Two nuns are traveling through Europe in their car. They get to
Transylvania and are stopped at a traffic light. Suddenly, a diminutive
Dracula jumps onto the hood of the car and hisses through the windshield.

Quick, quick!! shouts the first nun, What shall I do?

Turn the windshield wipers on, that will get rid of the abomination,
says the second.

She switches them on, knocking Dracula about, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

What shall I do now? shouts the first nun.

Switch on the windshield washer. I filled it up with Holy Water in the
Vatican, says the second.

Dracula steams as the water burns his skin, but he clings on and hisses
again at the nuns.

Now what? shouts the first nun.

Show him your cross, says the second.

So she winds the window down and shouts: GET OFF MY F--ING HOOD!!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:51
D.A.: Thanks. I'm sure you realize that my comments were intended to aid the course of open dialogue, with a minimum of rancor. ...... BTW. Your comments included use of a word seldom seen outside of a calculus text. Asymptote. ..... ( a curve that approaches a straight line but never touches it ) . Now it's available for general use.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:34
George Cole: Agreed. In the meantime the financial world is providing us a show, worth far more than the price of admission. The denouement is so fascinating to watch I have decided to unmute CNBC. Hell, I may even get some popcorn. .. ( :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:31

You write nice.

My musings last night, with as you put it so well, 'gold bug solidarity' were not a call to arms. I am very pleased with the level of rational and most importantly civil discourse which now is a mainstay here at Kitco. Remembering back to the more combative days, I do not relish a return to the past. My observation was purely what one might call one those semi-useful anecdotal type indicators.

IMHO the best observation that WW has offered to date is 'news follows price'. We have seen a beautiful example of this in the PGM markets as now everyone 'knows' why the price is high. And there are no shortage of commentators willing to explain. With respect to gold, I realize that Kitco and its participants and lurkers are but a tiny blip in the market, however they do represent a group that by all rights should have an enormous positive bias towards the glittery stuff. There is strong reason to believe that they are at least a little representative of those who would normally be gold buyers and holders. That this group should be willing to embrace the 'reason' ( the news ) for why gold has gone down and appears dead in the water at best, is telling. People do not embrace an alternative explanation when it runs directly counter to an investment stance that they have taken. We all talk our book. To me this is clear evidence that the Kitco book is not nearly as long as it used to be. When the last of bulls has been converted, the selling is over. This does not mean that the price will now take off like a rocket, but it does mean that there is very, very little risk left on the downside. The primary objective for investing is to get the reward / risk ratio as high as possible. The easiest way to do it is to get the denominator to approach zero. We are asymptotically approaching.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:19
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
TEd:The option of selfsufficiency is only open to a very
select few; those in good health and a spot of land, etc.
Civilation, as we know it, can not revert to tribal form,
vis-a-vie, the American indian. I think you get my drift
without further description. We all like our comforts and
have grown weak as a result. It is tough to follow
the rules that
result in a healthy life style, as well you know. Cheers:-}}

ALL: If the dollar is getting weaker and can buy less gold
for each $, why doesn't the price of gold increase? Also,
if the CB don't think gold is worth anything why don't they
set it out in a field someplace in Brooklyn or Kentucky and
guard it with a fence? There is a lot of bull being spread
around. Next thing we'll hear from MIT is that balls don't
bounce. Geezzz.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:08
George S. Cole gold and news>(gold and news):
Earl: As you know I place great emphasis on market reaction to news. Gold's ability to hold this morning in the face of proposals for huge CB sales is enxouraging. But the yellow stuff will have to continue to ignore bad news for awhile in order to declare the bear dead. Also we want to see it go up on good news and STAY UP. This hasn't happenned in quite some time.

Lots of new era talk on Wall Street now. The latest investment paradigm asserts that the link between inflation and economic growth has been permanently severed. We can have strong growth forever with very little inflation; hence no need for the Fed to tighten in the foreseeable future. And recessions won't happen if the Fed doesn't have to turn the screws. Of course this is all bunk; but the financial community needs a rational for the ongoing market excesses. Reminds me of Irving Fisher's new era of permanent prosperity talk in the 1920s.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:06
Glenn: How could you be so wrong with that April call on the DOW? Very likely, you will be off by 1000 before the end of June. ...... ( :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:03
panda @>(@):
George S. Cole -- Fifteen days of .7% average gains would put us at Dow ~8550.

Earl -- Take a peek at the DBC URL below.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 11:02
WW: How did you arrive at a figure of $309 for a low, should the CB's disgorge their horde? Somehow, it seems to me, to be one of those imponderables. .... Not that it is likely in the first place. The central banks may be collosally foolish but I don't think they are monumentally stupid.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:57
George Cole: Gold appears unconcerned about what should be negative news this morning. Both ACW's overnite report and the inflation numbers. Does that constitute the placement of an 'X' in the positive column?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:54
George S. Cole bull market legs>(bull market legs):

My expectation of a market top this summer is based upon the observation that each leg of this bull market has lasted about half as long as the previous leg. And bull markets generally have just 3 legs. Leg #1: November 1985-May 1986 ( about 18 months ) . Leg #2: July 1996-March 1997 ( about 9 months ) .

The current leg began in mid-April and would be expected to last about 4.5 months. But the DOW rally has been so powerful that something between 3 and 4 months seems the best bet.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:52
bw: Once again, your view is not only compelling but chilling. No matter how this thing shakes out. Our lives will not be the same again. IMO.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:50
panda @>(@):
Somewhat interesting interview and Q+A. Market crash? What would cause it? Read the last Q&A for his thoughts on gold.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:39
Dashing & Flamboyant CNBC Financial Celebrity shares an encyclopedia of market insights on stocks, oil and T-bonds in Inger Letter Forecast - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:37
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Monetary Realist -- You said a mouthful! I agree with all of it except one thing. If/when currency really does become worthless, or very nearly so, it certainly won't do one anygood in parting with their metals for it. Not unless there is a virtual guarantee that one can by it all back, plus a lot more, at a lower price! IMHO.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:25
panda @>(@):
Long Bond at 6.717, wow.... 6.6% ? Dow up !% even the HUI is up!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 10:03
Long term lease rates? 'Tight' cash markets?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:57
Monetary Realist Save Gold and Silver Coins for Retirement>(Save Gold and Silver Coins for Retirement):
To the Baby Boomers who think that they will collect Soc. Sec./Medicare in the next century - I have news for you. It ain't going to happen! Being at the trail end of the BB generation, I know I won't see a dime of it, and have planned accordingly. My personal IRA is in the physical metals, all bought with after-tax monies and are off-the-books so don't bother to try to find it, tax it, confiscate it or otherwise reapportion it. By the turn of the century, there WILL be a tax revolt, the kind of which amerika has not seen for centuries. I refuse to pay for your largess and stupidity and lack of saving for retirement. The 13ers generation ( Gen X'ers ) talk among themselves about how their taxes keep on increasing, and the few benifits that they are receiving are declining daily. Being on the cusp of the two generations, I tend to agree with the 13ers.

You boomers are all alike - Do as I say, not as I did won't fly for to much longer. The tax rates that you have paid are less than half of what we are paying. Do you really think that this will continue forever? Don't bet your Blue Chip Stocks on it!

The 13ers know what is in store for the future of the economy, and are quietly saving for the inevitable meltdown. Alot of this savings can not be measured...

Do you really think that you are going to sell that house for a 300% markup? To whom may I ask? Everything that your generation has gotten into, turns to bust when you are done with it. Talk about herd mentality! Hey, check out that new investment opportunity over there, yea, by the cliff. You all have piled into stocks over the last 5 years and bid up the prices to unsustainable levels. In order to pull out your profits, just who are you going to sell that paper to? When the herd decides to get out, and try to, that inverted pyramid will come crashing down upon you all. Only the early sellers will come out unscathed, meaning 90% will eat it big time.

You lack any real morals, and believe that you will be able to stick it to the next generation when it comes time to pay all of your hospital bills. There simply are not enough younger workers for that to happen. People quote numbers of 60 to 80% taxes for the 13ers in the next century, for that will be what is needed to insure that you get whats due you. Good luck in collecting it! No, the only way that the Jack-Booted thugs can continue those ponzi ploys is by passing new taxes on all that IRA and 401K money out there. First a one time 15% tax, then the next year another tax and on and on it will go...

I agree with Steve Puetz that the only tried and tested way of preserving ones wealth is via the precious metals. Cash is good for the short run, but will become worthless by 2005.

RJ may have it right when it comes to investing, at least during the past 2 decades. That may change soon...

To those that have physical metals, don't sell all of it when the next bull comes along. You'll probably be selling at the first of several uplegs, and will have to try to convince your offspring later on why they should take you in and care for you and support you 'cause you sold out to early and are now broke. Well, don't expect it, after all, you ignored us while we were growing up, when we needed a parent for support or just a pat on the back. The majority of moms and dads work full time for that elusive dollar. For that opportunity to get into that next great investment mania and strike it rich. Yea, right, you AND everyone else...

As to the $5 and $10 moves in gold, it's good for short term trading of the gold stocks and fun in trying to time the markets. But these up and down moves mean little in the long run as to the value of the holdings of the physicals. The physicals are the only true long term investment that there is. And this will never change.

Ok, hit me with your best stuff, try to convince me that you WILL be collecting all that money that is due you.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:30
NJ gold sales>(gold sales):
ACW : I for one am in favor of CBs selling all of their gold reserves. The price of gold may fall to $309, but from then on the gold market would finally be freed from the uncertainities periodically and purposefully introduced by the CBs.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:23
Chicken Little @puetz>(@puetz):
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:23
Puetz @ weak economy>(@ weak economy):
WW: You hit the nail on the head -- your 8:12 posting. One day soon, investors will interpret declining retail sales for what they indicate -- contraction and economic decline.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:21
TED @panda>(@panda):
Panda: I'm still tryin to take all that in....S+P futures up 2.25..

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:20
Puetz @>(@):
John Disney: Well said at 00:31

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:18
Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):
Eldorado: A Ponzi Scheme requires confidence. Once confidence is broken, Western finances will completely fall apart -- because they are so grossly over-extended. A stock crash and an economic contraction are the events likely to break confidence.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:15
panda @?>(@?):

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:13
junior XAU >(XAU ):
Fibo: Absolutely right on your XAU call. We are going up. What will not go down has to go up. Yesterday proved that . It is funny that this site is very negative on the metals and gold shares. The charts on the stocks show that the worst is over. This is an opportunity to buy them real cheap. I follow the Toronto Gold Index which sits in the neighbourhood of 9300. The high was at 13000. We will go above that high to finish this up cycle, that is an increase of 40 %. I like that number.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:12
CRASH: I've heard that for almost the entire 13 year bull market and it's mostly sour grapes by those who missed out on makin some money...In the past I've lived without electricity for 7 years and try and be as independant of the system as possible by providing my own heat source..
growin most of my food nuggets don't taste good! Self sufficentcy is the ANSWER and not some pretty prose!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 09:05
crash @maybe>(@maybe):
Hello All:

I've been enjoying all the comments on Kitco's chat group. I have
2 observations.
1. I've been hearing about a crash for the last 5 years. While I
don't disagree with this line of thinking, this could possibly go on
( no crash ) for quite awhile ( the Roman Empire took many centuries to
2. If one does feel a crash is near, what should one do besides
buying gold/silver coins? I've perused some of the Survivalist web
sites and most seem to recommend guns and dried foods. They seem to think that gold won't be of use until after the crash subsides and in
the short run, the former would be better than the latter.
Any comments/suggestions would be appreciated.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:36
Crystal Ball Happy @Utopia>(Happy @Utopia):
Apropos all the recent social commentary on this site, from an actual newspaper contest where young entrants were asked to imitate Deep Thoughts by Jack Handey. - - -
Once, I wept for I had no shoes. Then I came upon a man who had no feet. So I took his shoes. I mean, it's not like he really needed them, right? --Age 15

I'd say this kid has a future working for the government.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:35
Producer price index:down .3% and core rate down .3% ..Much weaker than expected...Bond up 13 ticks..

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:28
panda @curious>(@curious):
Ford? China? Catalytic converters made of 'rare' materials that that China is 'rich' in?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:20
panda @>(@):
WW -- You will truly be able to buy the Dow 'index' as licenses for options and futures on the index have been granted! I guess even Dow Jones needs the money.... :- ) )

FWIW I came across a story this morning on Japanese bankruptcies soaring..... Don't Worry, :- ) Be happy !- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:12
WW @New England>(@New England):
Panda: The economy is weak and any strength is the result of an unsustainable credit expansion. When the economy breaks down it will mean higher and uncontrollable deficits and therefore higher rates and a lower dollar and a problem for stks. A first for the US a virtuous cycle of rising rates combined with depression. Solution new currency backed with gold with gold at a price of 5k per troy oz. They mine gold like crazy and prosperity returns. We will buy the Dow index when it reaches its final low of 1300.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:11
Crystal Ball Funny Farm>(Funny Farm):
Sorry about the triple post. I've got a twitchy touch pad this morning.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:04
Crystal Ball I'm from the government and I'm here to help you>(I'm from the government and I'm here to help you):
My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to .wav file )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:02
Crystal Ball I'm from the government and I'm here to help you>(I'm from the government and I'm here to help you):
My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to .wav file )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 08:02
Crystal Ball I'm from the government and I'm here to help you>(I'm from the government and I'm here to help you):
My prediction for PPI numbers:
From the honest folks in Wash DC, who wouldn't mind paying lower interest rates on the national debt, --- DOWN 0.5%. Gold's reaction--- ( listen to .wav file )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 07:58
Good Morning Tortfeasor -- How much bleaker can it get for the metals? The stock market looks to be in a blow-off mode here. Looks like panic buying with no one selling. I still have the same question, Sell? To whoooooom? Techs looked weak, blue chips strong. Looks like money sloshing around the bucket, from one side to the other. Short term, that's not good for the metals, but then again, the thirty year bond chart is filling in the triangle nicely! I never would've believed the pattern would be 'filled' out. I thought the economic news was too strong, but here we are, bond market rally... Go figure! I expected oil to fall, and it did, but the oil stocks and XOI are up! Again, go figure. I was planning a short of the XOI, paper it traded first ( ! ) . Idea has been nixed for the time being. Just sitting and watching now. HUI options, well, I've begun digging new plots in the cemetary. Business has been too good there lately. I've got plenty of space left, my rates are cheap! Need to bury anything ( paper I mean ) ? :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 07:44
WW @New England>(@New England):
Is all this negativism on Gold in the published media ie ACW contrived or just symptomatic of what is said when a market is so pathetic. If it is contrived I believe they made a grave error. If as, ACW report states, the Govts sold all their gold today it would drive the price to 309 that is not much risk for such an event. Once it was done who would be left to sell.
Down to 309 is nothing/if thats all the govs can do in extremis then someone should realize gold is a bargain at these prices.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 07:42
Speed @home>(@home):
George S. Cole: What are the indications of a top? Are you looking for a steadily declining ratio of gainers to losers, several weeks of bad news? I'm interested, because I got faked out pretty badly in April, when the correction stopped abruptly at 9.9%.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 07:30
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
The Netcom news service quoting someone saying that because the gold and silver markets have not responded to the recent dollar decline that they will soon pay. I presume that the writer anticipates sharply lower prices. Maybe this news is not news to this group. My feeling is that we will have more of the same today with gold in the 342 area and silver 4.74 or so. As I've said before I don't look for gold to go below 340 for any period of time. So, in the markets there isn't much to write home about. That is why I write here instead. Now for the story that amused me.

The old Jewish man was walking on the beach with his only
grandson, when a giant wave crashes onshore, sweeping the boy
out to sea. The man looks up to the heavens and says, Oh
Lord, this is my only grandson, how can you take him away
from me like this? My son will not understand. My daughter-
in-law will die from grief.

Another wave comes by, and deposits the boy at the old
man's feet. The grandfather looks to the heavens again and
says, He had a hat!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 07:18
George S. Cole CB Gold Sales>(CB Gold Sales):

Thanks for telling us about that Federal Reserve study advocating that the CBs sell all their gold! This is the kind of thing that comes out at or close to secular troughs. Reinforces my conviction that the gold bear will reverse before long. The ensuing bull will have a tremendous wall of worry to climb.

Still think the catalyst for this reversal will be the final end of the ongoing bull market in financial assets -- probably this summer. And once the next gold bull begins, all the CB selling in the world will not be able to stop it.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 06:21
bw At risk:>(At risk:):
I'll finish out my financial assets series with the rough dollar amount at risk for each class. What better day to do it than when the dow soars yet again. At risk in a financial panic and depression are: stocks 11T, us treasuries 6T, M3 5T, MMMF 1T, Corporate Bonds 3T. The total at risk, about 26 trillion dollars is an amount about about equal to 75 years of personal saving. About three generations of personal savings for the whole country gone into a black hole. All the riots, blame, recrimination, commissions, reforms, new laws, new political parties, and new governments that perhaps will come will be powerless to bring back a single penny.

We are not considering as lost the implied future obligations of government such as social security. These probably total about 10 trillion. Also we are not considering the price reductions of real assets as this should not result in net real losses for society. Although there will be vast losses for individuals who are leveraged ( mortgages ect. ) .

Actually this 26 trillion dollars represents resources which have been long ago consumed. What will vanish into the black hole is hope. Hope that they will ever be repaid in real terms. The largest con game in the history of the world will stand naked before the billions of its victims. No one alive then will ever again trust paper promises, or the men, institutions and governments that make them.

TOTAL 22,000,000,000,000.00

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 05:38
Maxt Different Results>(Different Results):
Correction to post: Definition of insanity; I meant expecting DIFFERENT results, ( not the same results ) .

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 05:32
Maxt Give YOUR money first,, then ask me>(Give YOUR money first,, then ask me):
BERNIE - Stop and think about this.... If you had an opportunity to do something that would make you money, and you planned and planned and laid out your plan, then carefully implemented the plan's steps, threw in tens ( or hundreds ) of thousands of US Dollars, worked 80 hour weeks for 3 years straight, then measured the results, and adjusted the mixtures to maximize the results, and if these same results become the products we consumers purchase ( both services and hard goods ) , and you did this unhindered in any way, the result would be competition within your industry to develop less costly, more efficient ways to produce, thus lowering the price and increasing the quality of all consumer goods, right? And if an employer is unfair, workers can freely move to a competitor. Remember - employers must remain competetive in regards to workers, salespeople, secretaries, estimators, accountants, etc. ( or they'll seek employment where better conditions prevail ) , as well as remaining competitivley priced for the end consumer, so that the product is considered a bargain. This is not easy. In fact, we must not assume that most rich people amassed their wealth by inheritance or tom-foolery.
In fact, the rich people are being blamed for their wealth instead of congratulated, because they actually DID something constructive consistantly, and at a great cost. Compared to people like the Kennedys who amassed their wealth through daddy, who was a bootlegger during prohibition, businesses are the means by which we develop and maintain our standard of living.

Well, that's the was it's SUPPOSED to work. The problem just might be man himself. You know, that guy you may refer acidly to as brother in law. He's the one for who lazy would be a compliment, mooch a quaint nickname, and welcher a person from Wales. He sells used cars. He once asked you for money for some hare-brained scheme, and after a lot of pressure - and to save face ( YOUR face viewed through your wife's eyes ) , you loaned him the money, but it became a losing proposition as soon as the first payment was overdue and you discovered the reason he wasn't returning your phone calls was because he'd run off to Las Vegas ( hooker in hand ) to invest your money on his new venture. And to make matters worse, your wife claims it was YOUR DECISION to loan him the money.

If you look toward Washington, you'll see that your brother in law moved there some years ago, and has graduated from used car salesman to bail bond collector to lawyer to deputy district attorney to district attorney to judge to supervisor to mayor to congressman to senator to vice president to..... and he's got his eye on whatever he can mooch off, and that means ANYTHING. Anything of value. So, even though there are SOME moochers running businesses who pollute or treat workers unfairly, the number of moochers in government would probably round off to be 100%. So it's easy for the moochers to ask for more. All the have to do is stir up the media about some pertinent issue to raise the public's awareness to attract funding. Talk about an art!

Anybody can see that the riches the rich enjoy is directly due to potential profits, and if you strip out some of the profits, who's gonna feel the pinch? You are, my friend. You have to work for a living, and you must buy food, transportation, etc.

Liberals treat a situation involving humans in a manner that demands a certain result, because that's how people SHOULD act. When in fact, you see that people do not follow the plan ( like welfare, for example ) . You fail to see that what we are doing DOES NOT WORK, so we throw money at it. Money we stole from those rich bastards, who probably ripped somebody off to get it, right? And, since a common definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting the same results, by that definition all liberals may possibly be insane.

So the lesson here is that the goods you seem to want to distribute amongst those less fortunate would not even exist without the freedom of those creative business people involved in creating a better product at a better price to go about their business unhindered by financial or coercive mafia ( legal governments ) interfering. Remember it is you who then pay more for goods of inferior quality, it is you who must accept less wages.

To the unaware, the arrangement of production and consumers seems confusing. Unbelievably, the government attempts to take credit for it's mere existance! As if a food or durable goods market and buyers in the absence of a government would not exist! Right.

So don't be so quick to reach out for someone else's goods. You might find if you get your brother in law to pass a law to collect a portion of those goods, they'll soon be priced higher, and of poorer quality.

So before you ask me to subsidize that which does not work, don't listen to brother in law[s excuses for more money, take a hard look at what might be happening, of you'll end up living in a deteriorating country that's no fun because God has left for greener pastures.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 05:29
The Last Goldbug >():

ACW: That one is enough to make Mr. Greenspan quit, with
such erudite advisor's, why would he want the job.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:47
Bernie Tax the 1% with 90% of wealth>(Tax the 1% with 90% of wealth):
John Disney.....I look forward to your posts, you bring an insight to
this discussion group about South Africa, not only about gold but
about the social issues of South Africa and the attitudes that have
been so disruptive to South Africa. I do not agree with everything
you say but I will never ask others not to listen to you because I
disagree with what you believe.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:32
Mooney: It makes no difference. If they have their way, they will control ours. ....... ( :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:30
Eldo: While I understand, Amigo, I really do believe, more than I believe anything else, that we are all better served if we can separate the world of ideas from our emotions. A tough business for all but that is no reason to do less than our level best to avoid mixing the two.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:22
Eldo: Just a personal point of view but style should be the coating on the cod liver oil pill. It shouldn't diminish or distract from, what's inside. Only make it easier to 'get it down'. The style itself will generally reflect the stylist. Good or bad. .... Hardly a revelation, I suppose. But consider the expressive modes here. Even if someone were to post without a handle, I think it would be easy to recognize the source. Assuming, of course that it was more than a few words. Examples are both unnecessary and unwise. .... Where was I going with this See what I meant about 2 cents to 10 dollars? Everything after the first sentence was only embellishment. ..... The pillow calls.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:21
Mooney @ACW,>(@ACW,
ACW-Good To Hear From You My Friend! - BUT; This nonsense is almost belly-laugh material, The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd.
Do these four or five people now control the World?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 02:12
Eldorado @one more>(@one more):
Earl -- An short addendum to my previous: That's where style 'becomes' substance!!! Thus, as long as humankind remains an emotional being for the most part, it may take a particular messenger to deliver a particular message.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:49
Eldorado @the messenger>(@the messenger):
Earl -- You state: Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message. As important as a message is, I believe that HOW a messenger states it is at least as important. Probably more so! Maybe it's a good thing we all aren't Patrick Henrys as we might get tired of it, but given that we aren't, some are always needed! Talk about 'sending a message', whether it be in a court room or in an assembly hall! That man could command attention! And it wasn't that the people hadn't heard the message before. It's that their hearts and souls hadn't! That's the difference!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:33
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
ACW -- Why do these 'studies' etc. always come out at the bottom of the markets? Seems like if one should be selling, it would be at the other 'end' of a market move! I call news like that a 'key' type indicator! The news might move the metal down very short term, though I wouldn't necessarily count on it. But should it do so, I'll be there buying at THE bottom!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:31
yellowdog @ACW-govt gold sales>(@ACW-govt gold sales):
ACW: my only question is who would buy all of it? BT?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:26
Eldo: You silver tongue devil. ... Remember the political commercial from a few years back: Where's the beef?.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:21
ACW: Post of the evening! Have to love it. No? .... Sell it or better yet lease it and never see gold or money again. Just another attempt to talk the gold market down. .... Probably will succeed too.

What would be most interesting is to know how just much the authors really believe, in what they are saying.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:15
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Ahh, but you combine both style and substance so well! I don't believe that Barts' bandwidth, or readers eyes, will be particularly hurt by it! It's a fine learned art that all should strive to better themselves with, IMHO!!! You taking pupils?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:12
John Disney: Good have you back. Damn BLYDY is making my trigger finger itch. ............. Per this evening's post; I am reminded of your advice, on a like evening, when I was also given over to similar attacks upon The Anointed. I did take it. The advice that is. As you say, it is a waste of valuable energy.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:04
ACW ominousreport>(ominousreport):
This ominous report appeared on Yahoo Gold.

Thursday June 12 7:55 PM EDT

Fed-issued paper advocates government gold sales

WASHINGTON, June 12 ( Reuter ) - A new Federal Reserve study argues that the United States
and other governments should sell off their gold reserves to reap huge benefits for their economies.

``Government ownership of gold does not contribute directly to the ( general ) welfare,'' the
discussion paper, authored by a Fed economist and three other analysts, says.

The paper was issued by the central bank here but is the sole responsibility of the authors and
should not be seen as reflecting the views of the Fed's board.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is a long-time proponent of a return to the gold standard, although
his views are not widely shared at the central bank or generally among economists.

Governments hold some 1.11 billion ounces of gold. U.S. holdings alone amount to 262 million

The Fed study comes as a number of governments are exploring ways to make better use of the
millions of ounces of gold they hold in reserves.

As part of its effort to participate in European monetary union, Germany is revaluing its gold
reserves. The International Monetary Fund may sell off some of its gold holdings to help finance a
lending program for poor nations.

According to the study, if governments sold their gold immediately, rather then holding it, the
economic gain could come close to $370 billion.

Much of the benefit would accrue to the governments themselves in the form of additional revenue.
Gold consumers would also benefit but mining companies would lose out.

The study calculates that an immediate sale of all government gold stocks would push the gold price
down to $309 per ounce from an assumed $350. The gold price closed in London on Thursday at
about $342.50.

The paper acknowledges that there may be some advantages to governments holding gold, but it
argues that those advantages are eroding.

``The importance of gold as a possible future reserve asset, as part of a war chest ( in case of crisis ) ,
and as a strategic material has clearly diminished in recent years and will, in all likelihood, continue
to diminish,'' it says.

If the U.S. and other governments nevertheless were worried that they might lose out on such
advantages by selling their gold now, they could consider loaning it out instead, and gradually
disposing of it, according to the paper.

The study admits that there might be some difficulties in following such an approach. But it argues
that the potential benefits might well outweigh the costs.

The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a
research analyst at Miller, Anderson and Sherrerd.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 01:00
Eldo @00:23: It's interesting that you should bring up writing style. Only moments ago, I emailed a friend on that very subject. The point of which was, that it is easy to take a penny's worth of substance and pump it up to a ten dollar bill. To which I plead guilty. In the end, it only serves to diminish Bart's bandwidth ratio. ..... Style should differentiated from substance. As messenger from message.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Actually, I was referring to all of it! Very nice!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:49
RJ Did I say next week>(Did I say next week):
Eldorado - If you were referring to the first part of my 00:10, hat's off to the Bard. The rest was mine. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:48
RJ: A compliment most graciously accepted. ...... Though, if the 'E' stood for 'Ebenezer', my purse would be better served.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:47
FIBO @anyone who is still awake.>(@anyone who is still awake.):
With all due respect to our resident guru, APH, the XAU will see 120 before any visit ( if ever again ) back to the mid 90's.

BTW, When was the last time the gov't issued a new 50 dollar bill?
Answer: 1929!!! Coincidence? I THINK NOT!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:43
Auric Audience>(Audience):

Earl, Vieserre, RJ, Eldorado etc.: Thanks for a
stimulating dialogue tonight. Truly informative!
Even poetic at times.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:31
John Disney>(
For Steve Puetz
YES - Cancel all taxes. Privatize the army and the
police. Eliminate the political class who are the real
problem NOT the rich 1 per cent that Born Again Leninist
BS Bernie hates so much. After that, I suggest grant
independence to Vermont.
The above represents long term objectives. Short
term, I respectfully suggest we ignore all the silly
crapola that comes in from Bernie and Wacker. I really
don't care what they think and neither does the 1 per
cent. Why anyone is polite to these guys is beyond me.
Wacker is obsessed with Social Security - thats not
very pertinent to precious metals - or am I missing
something? Bernie's idea of confiscating wealth has
already been tried in many places Cambodia, N Korea,
Russia, China. It didnt work very well. Back in your
holes guys. This stuff is irrelevent, other than to
reveal the convoluted workings of the liberal mind -
i.e. to be envious, to repress individual freedom
wherever possible, and to impose their bent views on
others because they are morally correct since greater
than 50 per cent of the population has been driven by
similar self interested views to vote the same as they did.
They represent the true new Fascism. Dont let them feed
on your intellects. Ignore them and let them waste their
energy writing to a blind audience. Save your ammo, you
may need it for something more serious than Mister Wacker.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:23
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- And I gave you some contention. Rightly or wrongly. A part/or all of which I would like to get resolved one way or another. But, part of that may come in your next weeks 'posting'. But, in the nearer term, namely tonight, what do you have in mind for the 'common truth'? P.S., Your prose almost equals Earls' eloquence. I take my cyberhat off to you!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:19
Big Big Trader>(
Many of the June XAU Call writers are going to get
blown out next week. This will start with a big
gap up in the XAU tomorrow. Gold stocks wont be
cheap much longer.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:17
Earl - You have a poets heart, and the keen eye of a sculptor.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:10
RJ (?):
O for a Muse of fire, that would ascend
The brightest heaven of invention:
A kingdom for a stage, and princes to act
And monarchs to behold the swelling scene…
Leashed in like hounds, should Famine, Sword, and Fire
Crouch for employment. But pardon, Gentles all.

I have come to share. I would ask anyone to find an effort to sell in any of my postings. I’ve have not even tried to sell my opinions, just state them unequivocally. I have read these pages for more than a year before ever announcing my presence. There were times, when what I read here, would cure any insomniac. But I kept reading, for the pearls of wisdom hiding amongst the flotsam. I stuck my fingers down a lot oysters throats to find these pearls though. ( never mind me, I’m feeling particularly hostile towards metaphors this eve ) . So I came to shake your tree. A few of you, napping in your branches, looked down to see what appeared to be a bear snarling at your trunk. What you may have missed, from your lofty vantage point, is the bull, with horns buried to the forehead, up that poor bears ass. Maybe that’s why the bear was making all this ruckus to start with.

I have asked for no reward, more rightly, I have asked for contention, for it is there we may all glimpse a common truth. And who questions my motives? Forgive me for trying to build a foundation on facts, and not fears, supposition, or half truths. Those areas to nebulous to be declared correct or no, I just told you what I felt. Some have said this was a breath of fresh air. IMHO, ( I’M Hardly Obsequious ) I think so too.

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:06
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
STEVE PUETZ: Thanks for the ointment, re my noonish post.
I feel better now. TO ANYONE: Looks like the Dow is puffing up like
the Neki. Will a tiny pin let the air out? As I recall
the Black Monday in '87 phone lines were jammed, those
needing to replenish their margin accounts could not, some
blew their brains out. This time, internet trading systems
will will be all crammed or slowed to the point of madness.
If one has a decent profit, take it now and avoid the blood

Buy gold at these low prices. How long of a base line
do you need?

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:04

As you are aware, physical systems become increasingly unstable as the slope of activity approaches infinity. The present DOW is a fair real world, approximation. It's bubble time and there is not a thing to be done to change it. ....

As a consequence, and with a certain amount of shame, I confess that I pay almost zero attention to the comings and goings of movers and shakers and the possible consequences of their actions. I think that we are in a very special time in economic history and there is nothing to be done to change it. Monetary authorities are literally caught between a stoop and a squat.

It is as if a locomotive is set in motion and nothing is to be done until it runs out of steam or track. All we can do is stand on the side and make bets as to the outcome and when. It's now gonna run its course. For good or ill. Please understand, I mean to he a fatalist here. Not a smartass.

I would be more comfortable with your XAU position if the volume of activity were higher. I don't think the major players even traded over their normal complement of 1 million shares today. It's entirely possible, as others have said, that the DOW is taking pressure off the gold stocks and the XAU will likely begin to reflect the gold action when the DOW slacks off a bit.

Earlier today I agreed with Nailz that it looked like the XAU was about to return for a retest of the low 90s. I no sooner said it than the damn thing broke above the short term downtrend line and remained above it at the close. I tried to post the chart but now discover I need some conversion software. .......... The format you have is not the one you need. The format you need is not the one that should be used. The format that should be used is not available at any price. ..... ( :- ) ) ( With attribution, via paraphrase , to Alice on Avid )

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:04
WW @New England>(@New England):
Double Dittos to QT and Bernie for their latest cogent and, for the conservatives ( unfortunately for them ) , undeniably accurate points. The truth will win keep the faith! Nite All!

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