Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:04
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
So the CBs store and guard their gold and charge no one for
the service? Sounds strange they don't charge some kind of
rent, especially after going to all the trouble of building
huge vaults, etc. If they do charge a fee they don't cover
their costs. Who owns the gold anyway? Surely not the
politicians, they have trouble keeping their pants zipped up
and not sending our young men into European battles.
The gold market is not cornered by the C. Banks.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:26
Look for the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to undersatisfy current demand. Every major price move in the last two months has been preceeded by announcements from Russia. Forget about production or stockpiles, they have been sellers at the highs - announce everything is OK, supplies will meet demands, and buyers at the lows - silence or cautious optimism. Who needs to produce palladium when you can pay for your low priced deliveries with massive profits from your shorts? This has been one of the most beautifully manipulated markets I have seen in the last decade. $250 palladium is a lock, probably by Friday. There will be Japanese traders jumping out of windows tonight when they find it next to impossible to cover shorts. Profit taking ( finally ) will not take it below $200. look for $275 before the month is out. For those of you worried about stockpiles, they are nearly nonexsistant - 2 years max. Norilsk is opperating at 25% tops. Unpaid miners dig with broken machinery. Western money is too spread out to even begin to rebuild infastructure. Only those with hot blood and money to burn will play palladium. For those of you looking for a real play, look for platinum to repeat the 1986 - 1990 levels. The $420's will be a distant memory of bargin basement levels by August. Can platinum top $500 and stay there for awhile? Not the first time, nor the second, but it can and will. South Africa can smell the money and they will come out to play soon. $450 in June. Save this message and remember you were advised in advance.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:30

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:47
RJ: Your post re Palladium makes sense. If a single seller can control the market, they will manipulate for maximum value.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:54
John Disney>(
For Duncan - Joel hedges 50%. Im not sure but I believe DD does not
hedge at all.
For ARS in Mexico. That a very tough question. DD loses money at the
present gold price but will almost double production in September which
should give some economy of scale.
Blyvoor is close to breakeven at present gold price but also have
projects in place to lower cost.
Buffles still profitable at present gold price.
Merger itself should provide additional scale economy which should
lower costs still further

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 00:54
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy):
night all...You too Ted!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:03
John Disney>(
To all
Having just reread my earlier post on the dbn-deep merger, and at
the risk of starting a big argument, I believe that Barrick is one of
the most over priced stocks in the world based on cost of capacity amd
cost per ounce of reserves. On the subject of their vaunted management,
these guys almost bought into Bre-X ( if anyone remembers ) .
I believe that if Barrick had any imagination, brains, or B***S, they
would be in South Africa offerring three times market value for durban
deep right now. Are the wittle boobies afwaid of getting mugged in Joberg

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:04
Reify @Watching>(@Watching):
My doctor advised me to watch my salt intake, since my blood pressure was too high. However it's very difficult, since I take so many grains of salt reading Kitkoites posts.

Since you've been waiting for my latest readings, with baited breath, here are a few thoughts for y'all;-

When last reporting, I thought the CRB would get to 260 range it didn't, and now that a correction is proceeding, I believe it's almost over, and it sure was a quicky. We're now at 247, and the 244 range should be it.

The long term gold charts looks like we should be starting our move up from these levels shortly, maybe a few more days to a week. I don't believe we'll be flying just yet, but maybe by July- August. The move may in some cases take up to September- November, before correcting.
Some of you have had the opinion, which I respect, that we're headed for the $330 range before moving up. Sorry, but just can't see this, unless something weird should happen, and that has been known to happen on occasion.

Some of the near term charts, like HM,PDG, BGO,GLG-etc. I believe should start up today or in the next day or two.

The XOI, and Crude, should begin to correct from these levels, but maybe not very far. Hard to tell.

The markets should also correct from these levels, and again after that I can't tell. I say this because I see accumulation and bottom formation in quite a few stocks that I follow, so maybe the small caps still have a move up to make before the big bad BEAR starts to roar for real.

Any comments?

Short Bull- didn't see you latest, what happened?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:22
Reify @Check it out>(@Check it out):
It seems my thought come in short pants-

Recently Short Bull suggested to check out a stock called Caledonia Mng.
I did and lo&behold it looked interestin, so I added it to my list of companies which I chart and watch, and in yesterdays lower price action, would you believe this one bucked the trend. Check it out. It looks good once a larger base has been made, but then one can never tell, it may not wait to base.

The credit to Short Bull- the cash to me.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:36
George S. Cole:
Thanks for the LGN post. A month ago or so, LGN issued an e-mail to me stating that would be the last newletter update. I tried sending them several e-mails asking if I would receive a refund as I had paid them $500 for a Lifetime subscription. They initially told me that I could get a full refund if if wasn't satisfied with the surface. Needless to say, they would not respond to any of my e-mail messages. Do you know if they are back in business? Are they once again issuing a newsletter to subscribers? Would you happen to have there telephone number? I would much appreciate any information you may have.


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:48
Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enogh gold in my time to think it deserves a descent christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be repectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breath life where litte resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know There are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sicly yellow lass as we set he genly on the straw. We will hear her stories ( most of which we've heard too may times ) and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.
We will sell her for her beauty,
we will sell her for her class,
we will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?
I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium.I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are mor likley to be found having luch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ammbasador. It's nice to know what he thinks, only as it is possible to rely that our understanding of their thougts carry less self service than any other who proposes to love and cherish through good to bad.I'm a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a single desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent.I count amonng my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last Decenmber when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollor for dollor and held, and held, and hold untill today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to to $100 for

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 01:48
Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enogh gold in my time to think it deserves a descent christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be repectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breath life where litte resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know There are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sicly yellow lass as we set he genly on the straw. We will hear her stories ( most of which we've heard too may times ) and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.
We will sell her for her beauty,
we will sell her for her class,
we will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?
I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium.I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are mor likley to be found having luch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ammbasador. It's nice to know what he thinks, only as it is possible to rely that our understanding of their thougts carry less self service than any other who proposes to love and cherish through good to bad.I'm a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a single desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent.I count amonng my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last Decenmber when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollor for dollor and held, and held, and hold untill today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to to $100 for the first time in almost a decade. It's still a play, butwith some of the bottom gone, a slighly more meager one, albeit with acceptable returns. What the hell, the risk is almost nonexsistent. I'm a new guy in this group, I know. I will comport myself with dignity and hope to have extended to me the hospitallity you have. There comes a time in which our indroduction to the world cements certain expectations. We will talk of those next time.


This is what I do for a living. Only metals, I love It. I have persoally move the markect my self recently. Let me know if you would like a no
bgs take on the market

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 02:00
Fidelity Select American Gold Chart, hourly prices in percent,
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 02:09

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 02:13
yellowdog @RJ>(@RJ):
I'm sorry, RJ, but I just dont see the logic: you are forecasting a 15% rise in Silver and an additional 10% rise in Platinum in June, but a decline in gold . How can the white metals rise that much and the yellow one decline at the same time?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 02:51
It's simple. Gold will decline, silver will rise. Don't be shocked, it happanes all the time. With the twin spetres of German & Swiss central bank wanting to revalue their gold reserves. This is all prepretory to some acctual gold sales from these major counmtries this year. Forget about price ratios, forget about inflation or any other thing on the rest of the earth. If you don't believe that central eurpoe will forever cap gold this year, look to place some shorts. The Swiss and the Germans both are attempting to raise lease rates, their attempted revalue of their gold reserves have cast a profane and ugly pall over the gold market. Yes! Silver will rise - gold will fall............ The best of both worlds...... show me the $.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 03:08
There is no more relationship between gold and the PGMs. One is trading with a dark cloud overhead with worries of convictions of high crimes and misdemeners.
Silver is overdue for anoter .60 run. The PGM's are operation on ther own fundimentals.Fortget about gold and silver this time arround. The current short squeeze in the PGM's are unpresidented, so we will continue to see lower gold and higher silver. You've got to believe!!!!! Let me ask you, did you beleive in peanut buter?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 03:15
Congradulate me!!! I am holding 2000 oz paladium at $204. Looks preety quiet arround me. I'm in profits now, but I decided to wait until tomorrow.$240, #250 spot!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 03:15
Congradulate me!!! I am holding 2000 oz paladium at $204. Looks preety quiet arround me. I'm in profits now, but I decided to wait until tomorrow.$240, #250 spot!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 05:33
George S. Cole LGN>(LGN):
Charles: LNG now is sending out a daily investment E-mail. Here is a complete one which includes their phone number:

GN Daily Review & Trade Alert ( Thurs, May 22nd, 1997 )
Thu, 22 May 1997 18:31:02 -0400


Wednesday - May 22nd - 1997


As an LGN Market Letter reader you know that we have been talking about
America Online's stronger financial situation, better marketing strategies,
and overall market share increase. Today, AOL shares surged 2 1/8 in very
active trading, boosted by Cowen & Co. report's positive comments on the
on-line service provider.


( * ) The Dow lost 32.56, at 7258.13.
( * ) Big Board gainers topped losers 13 to 12 on volume of 426.9 million shares.
( * ) In broad measure action: the NYSE index fell by 1.55, the S&P 500 lost
3.69, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 1.16; whereas the Russell 2000
small-stock index gained 1.40 and the Amex composite finished up 1.65.
( * ) The long bond close down 10/32, to yield 6.98%; intermediate-term notes
lost 1/32 to 6/32; and the 3-month bill yield rose 5 basis points to 5.03%.
( * ) Lastly, the dollar was quoted at 116.03 yen and 1.6943 marks, up 1 2/3
yen and up 1/8 pfennig respectively.

Today's action came as a confirmation: the markets are giving back gains
made on the euphoria of the recent Fed's decision not to raise interest
rates. In fact, despite a few strong price swings, we are not really that
far from last month's levels.

Second on the NYSE's list of most actively traded stocks, an IPO from
Hartford Life was a success with investors, fetching a 14% premium over its
original $28.25 offer price.

On merger news, reports that the European Commission officially challenged
Boeing's planned acquisition of McDonnell Douglas caused shares of the
aerospace giant to tumble by more that 2 points. Meanwhile, RCSB Financial
surged 6 * ( 18% ) as it agreed to be acquired by Charter One Financial; RCSB
is the holding company for Rochester Community Savings Bank.


( * ) Spot gold fixed at $342.75 per ounce, against a previous close of
$342.40; while the Comex June contract was down $0.40 at $343.60.
( * ) Platinum was down $5.75, at $387.75, while silver fixed at $4.67, down 2

Precious metals prices eased from morning levels as New York appeared to
adjust to lower European levels. With the dollar off its closing low
against the yen, traders lost incentive to trade gold, as the yen's strength
had been a stronger gold supporter. Overall, gold business was
unexceptional at best, as it reflected a slightly firmer dollar following
a rise in jobless figures to 322,000 from the revised 319,000 the previous week.

As expected, most of the weakness came once again from the platinum group
metals and especially palladium, which was sold by Swiss dealers early in
Europe and fell steeply on the Nymex opening.

However, we do not think that palladium's rally is over. According to our
sources, the Tiger Management fund has the market were it wants it''. Some
dealers forecast the funds hanging on to palladium positions until the price
is ``up to $300''. We know that open interest is over 5,000 lots on the
contract on May 20.

Silver remained quiet today. For the days to come, we expect silver price
levels to drift lower with the upcoming long holiday weekend in London.

Your Fellow Investor,

Patrick J. Jacquemin

©1997 LGN Capital Management. All Rights Reserved.
LGN Capital Management. 3109 Grand Avenue. Suite 200. Miami. Florida 33133.
For subscription details, please email or call ( 305 )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 05:39
George S. Cole gold flat>(gold flat):
August gold now flat after being up modestly overnight. Looks like we may not get that bounce for another day or two.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 05:50
George S. Cole outlook>(outlook):
Reify: I do suspect that spot gold will break $340 before moving up, but I doubt it will go much below that or stay there very long. As Steve Kaplan has observed huge physical buying comes out of Asia every time the price dips below $340.

I also agree that the overall market market may now be entering a corrective phase, but the top isn't in yet; certainly not for the small caps. The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to outperform the big cap indexes by wide margins, but this trend is only a few weeks old and has a considerable way to go. My best guess is that the market will not peak until late summer.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 06:11
John Disney>(
To All Those who asked ne about Durban Deep/Blyvoor.
Its not as simple as I said. BECAUSE at the time
of conversion, IF you hold Durban Deep shares, you will
receive one half of a new option striking price 60,
expiry sometime in 2002. I figure the option is worth
about 6 rand. If you come in via blyvoor you dont get
this. Also I dont know how it works with ADR. So in
the joberg market if DD is 21 and you want to break
even with blyvoor, BEV blyvoor is ( 21-.5*6 ) /5= 3.6.
BEV ADR in $ = 3.6*3/4.47= 2.4 $. So market is pretty
efficient and there is no advantage either way IF the
ADR yield an option. I doubt if they do. My own experience
if that options on ADR are auctioned all in one day for
practically no value. If Im right on this, then the best
way to go in is via Blyvoor.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 06:16
George S. Cole EMU dying?>(EMU dying?):
From today's NEW YORK TIMES

Death of EMU would be very positive for gold by greatly reducing the prospect of further CB sales, and encouraging reflationary monetary policy on the continent.

June 5, 1997

Continental Rift


he first two lessons from the Socialist victory in France's elections on Sunday are
obvious, and mostly of interest to the French. One is that President Jacques Chirac and
the Gaullist movement are in trouble, revealing a dangerous sinkhole on the right wing
of French politics. The second is that any serious attempt to reduce France's generous social
and welfare provisions will be overwhelmingly rebuffed by the French public.

A third lesson, however, will have broad consequences for Europe and the world. It is that the
goal of uniting Europe around the euro, the common currency envisaged under the Maastricht
Treaty, has been revealed as politically unattainable.

Paradoxically, it was the Socialist President François Mitterrand who was the driving force
behind the Maastricht agreement in December 1991. Like many of the previous stages in the
European Community's forging of an ever closer union over the last 40 years, the treaty was
economic in form but political in purpose.

In the aftermath of German unification, the French were anxious to bind their powerful
neighbor firmly within existing European institutions. Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany
assented readily, but only on the condition that the move to a single European currency be
achieved at no cost to Germany's cherished monetary stability. If the German currency was to
be folded into the euro, then the euro would have to be as firm as the mark.

But the criteria under which member states are allowed to join the monetary union -- notably
the requirement that their annual budget deficit not exceed 3 percent of gross domestic product
-- were arbitrarily set nearly six years ago and represent an unrealistic and excessive concern
with monetary stability. Such terms might have made sense in an era of sustained high
economic growth. But in today's straitened circumstances they oblige governments to pass
unpopular deflationary measures and spending cuts -- and thus destabilize national politics.

Furthermore, the race to the euro has encouraged political dishonesty and bad faith among the
European member states. To qualify for membership in their own club, the French and more
recently the Germans have attempted budgetary sleight of hand -- the French by mortgaging
state pension plans and the Germans by unsuccessfully trying to revalue their central bank's
gold reserves.

This has soured relations with smaller nations like Spain and Italy, which the Germans have
sanctimoniously lectured on the virtues of financial stringency. As a result, the move to a closer
monetary union is actually driving Europeans further apart.

Thus the Italian Government of Romano Prodi has taken great pains and considerable political
risks to bring its budget in line with the Maastricht criteria. Yet German politicians and bankers
continue to cast doubt on Italy's long-term economic reliability, Germany's own budget deficit
and soaring unemployment notwithstanding.

This has led the Italians, along with Greeks and Spaniards, to suspect that the rigidity of the
terms for the euro have more to do with German domestic politics than any grand design for a
united continent. To many, the criteria seem little more than a device to keep Mediterranean
countries out of the monetary union as long as possible.

From the perspective of candidates for future membership in the European Union, the prospect
is equally depressing. Even if one or two former Communist states could technically qualify
for membership under the Maastricht rules today ( which is quite possible ) , they could not
continue to pursue the difficult economic and social transformations they have begun without
eventually increasing government spending of the sort precluded by the criteria.

The likely outcome is less a unified continent than a concentric series of European clubs, a
multiclass Europe that will nourish disagreements and resentments in years to come.

Finally, by defining a strong euro as the main objective of union, and pegging painful social
reforms and welfare cutbacks to that goal, Europe's leaders have played into the hands of
critics from the political fringes. All across Europe Brussels is now attacked by demagogues
as the symbol of rules and requirements that create local unemployment, cuts in government
service and economic stagnation.

Critics assert: We are the ones who stand for those who have no voice in Brussels, for voters
fearful of change ( and foreigners ) , for those who look closer to home for their security and
identity. We shall reassert the policy-making autonomy of the nation-state.

In France the extreme-right National Front and the Communists, together with various
dissident politicians who share their dislike for Europe, gained nearly 30 percent of the vote
on Sunday. In Austria the Freedom Party, a Europhobic group, has attracted voters from
social-democratic strongholds including Vienna, where it won a quarter of the votes in
municipal elections last year. If the painful budgetary reforms and tax increases adopted by
Italy's center-left coalition prove in vain and the country is kept out of the monetary union, an
angry reaction can be expected there, too.   A t the very least we shall hear demands across the
continent for a social Europe rather than a monetary one -- the same vague promise that was
held out to French voters by the new Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, and is finding an eager
audience among Germany's floundering Social Democrats.

Likewise, it is only in some such social union that we can expect Tony Blair's Britain to play a
full part.

The lesson is clear. A European Union founded on a strong and inflexible currency -- the
extrapolation to the rest of the continent of the postwar German miracle -- is no longer
realistic or prudent.

An ever-closer union, of the kind that seemed so admirable and necessary in 1957 when the
Treaty of Rome was drawn up, may no longer be the best way to insure peace and stability in

Melding the economies of countries as different as Austria and Britain, France and Portugal,
Sweden and Greece ( not to mention Poland or Hungary ) is both impossible and unwise:
Contrasting social and economic practices are born of longstanding political and cultural
differences that cannot be obliterated with the wave of a magic monetary wand.

There are alternative, less monolithic models of cooperation. The Swiss confederation, in
which real political authority and the power to make major economic decisions are shared
among autonomous regions, might be a more reassuring model.

If Europe is ever to move toward genuine cooperation in foreign policy and military
coordination, both of which require the active cooperation of sovereign states, then the union
will need to scale back both its rhetoric and its current monetary obsessions.

But what, some will ask, if global market forces make economic harmonization inevitable?
That, however, is the last lesson of the recent French election: Global market forces don't

Tony Judt directs the Remarque Institute at New York University.

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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 06:38
Mike Sheller wondering>(wondering):
Good Morning All. Does anyone have any thoughts about supply problems in precious metals from Russian production filtrering down from the Platinum/Palladium group to gold? Is this pure manipulation of a relatively thin market or can we expect the deterioration of Russian industrial activity to affect mining in general and gold in particular as well? Russia is still a significant gold producer ( oil too ) & one would expect, despite CB hoards & attempts to control the price, that industrial demand has its own parameters and would eventually be disturbed by a decline in Russian production ( if that's the case ) . My work with the precious is obviously technical, so I depend on the sagacious scuttlebutt at Kitco for the fundamental view. Also - re ark's clearly rhetorical question about the CBs ( 00:04 ) Who owns the Gold anyway? The answer, for the record, is that it is the PEOPLE's gold. I think on that, be we left or right in our political direction, we are all agreed.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 06:44
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Mike Sheller: Don't think it's manipulation just good old Russian incompetance and yes at some point this has to affect even gold...Time to go read the Journal...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 06:55
Mike Sheller the future works>(the future works):
GEORGE S. COLE: EMU Dying is a very cogent article at this juncture. It will be the very people and mindset whose thinking is most antithetical to a gold standard who will precipitate the conditions for a resurgence of gold. The general political consensus of humanity is still not so much founded upon systematic integrity and moral principle as it is sentiment and personal desires. This is, of course, a hallmark of the general Human Condition ( I suppose we are all in some way guilty ) . The people and their representatives are sensitive to the discipline and struggle they must endure to redress the mess that has been made of public finances. The people will opt every time for the solution that insures the least diminution of their benefits and handouts. After all, aren't these things they've paid for and due them by law and tradition? Their representatives will do everything possible to retain power, thus they must satisfy the people's desires first and foremost. They will stave off the future catastrophe as far into the next administration as possible. Let some other politico handle it - preferably an opposing party. The turn to the left that is the inevitable result of this philosophical bankruptcy will only speed the day of reckoning for all. Get Real. Get Gold.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:04
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
From Wall Street journal: Lease rates to borrow Palladium have risen as high as 150% compared with the usual levels of less than 5% in speculation that Russian shipments might be delayed into July...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:22
Speed needs advice>(needs advice):
Will the recent developments in Platinum and Palladium be meaningful for mining companies like Stillwater? Or is this a short term speculative froth for futures and bullion traders only?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
Viewing this gold market with a jaundiced eye brings to mind the following story:

Becky was on her deathbed, with her husband Tom at her side. He held her cold hand and tears silently streamed down his face. Her pale lips moved.

Tom, she said.

Hush, he quickly interrupted, don't talk.

But she insisted. Tom, she said in her tired voice. I have to talk. I must confess.

There is nothing to confess, said the weeping Tom. It's all right.
Everything's all right.

No, no. I must die in peace. I must confess, Tom, that I have been unfaithful to you.

Tom stroked her hand. Now Becky, don't be concerned. I know all about it, he sobbed. Why else would I poison you?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:38
Bob A to speed>(to speed):
Stillwater has been disappointing with the run up in Plat. and Palladium. It means to me most people think the move in the metals is a short term event.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:40
Tortfeasor Note for Ted>(Note for Ted):
Ted, did you get the mail yesterday? Markets look pretty discouraging this morning, but as they always say It is always darkest before you die.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:45
panda @>(@):
Speed -- Stillwater is growth story. If the PGMs story gets people thinking in terms of alternate suppliers, I would think that Stillwater would benifite long term. They are also just starting full production this month ( ? ) . On the other hand ( ! ) , if this move in the white metals is a flash in the pan, then this becomes a trade, not an investment. The difference being in the time horizon. I don't have an answer, but I am leaning strongly towards the longer term horizon with lots of short term volitility. ( So what else is new? )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:46
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Got yer letter and just responded!...NM sounds like my kind of place!...Say hello to Mr.Smith and Mr.Wesson!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:51
panda @>(@):
For anyone who doesn't know, Stillwaters' new ticker is ( SWC ) .

Bob A. -- Most investors don't even know what the PGMs are, let alone what's happening there! If most investors new, I would be getting ready to sell out at multiple baggers. The mania will eventually come to this sector also. :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:56
Speed @home>(@home):
Panda: Thanks. What a great month to begin full production. PGMS becomes SWC today and their products are moving sharply up. I am going to get my feet wet. Increasing volatility in all markets should make for an entertaining summer. Going out early to classes again today. The best investment is an education. Back tonight.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:56
bw Who owns the Gold?>(Who owns the Gold?):
In theory the people of the usa own the gold held by the us treasury. However if you own something, once in a while you like to see it, to feel it, certainly in the case of money, to count it. There has not been an audit of fort Knox in ( seventy? ) years. About every five or ten years some neophyte congressman introduces a bill to audit our gold. This congressman soon learns about the power of the people to count their money. The people of the usa are not allowed to count their money. Not allowed by whom? And why not?

I believe about six months before an audit of fort Knox takes place ( if it ever does ) we will see several stories in our free press. Sometime in the 1980's a gold eating rat will have been bred. In the early 1990's a rogue project will have ... well you can guess the rest.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 07:59
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Tort: Re-mornin joke: Hahahahaha...Gold is in the's 40 degrees and drizzlin...and I needed that!...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:08
RE: Wall Street Journal palladium lease rates at 150%: As usual, if the WSJ prints it, it's old news. 150% was last week. 260% last night, who know's today? But what's in a lease rate when noone will lend? The mother of all short squeezes could only be in it's infancy. It will be brutal in New York today. Now we're having fun.................

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:11
panda @disclaimer>(@disclaimer):
Speed -- I have a position in SWC, so I'm biased. :- )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:15
Organ Kitco Prices>(Kitco Prices):
Are Kitco prices any good? Why do I have to well over $5 for an ounce of silver, even if I buy 100 oz. at a time, if Kitco will buy it back from me at less than spot! This seems like a really bad deal. Silver has to increase more than 10% or I LOSE MONEY! In your experience, do other metal dealers have similar prices?

Thanks, Organ

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:22
Speed waiting on my broker to wake up>(waiting on my broker to wake up):
Panda: Bias is fine. I'd rather hear pros and cons from vested interests than read a bunch of boring objective analysis by people who have only done superficial research. I read the 10Q and it looks good.
Gotta go, back tomorrow or late tonight.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:27
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):
August gold now off 60 cents. Looks like spot will be going under $340 today.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:32
panda @>(@):
Don't worry, be happy! France, Germany, EMU, Platinum/Palladium.....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:38
JIN: You have an incomming mean missive!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:53
Scott .....!>(.....!):
Even the deepest oceans have a bottom you know!

What goes down will go up, and what goes up goes down.... Look at the gold decline as a count down for a launch into orbit as soon as the EMU is rectified. In the mean time...... BUY BUY BUY!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:56
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
EBN Gold down 1.10 @ 340.35...Glad I believe in diversification! S+P up 2.20...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:56
Reify @announcement>(@announcement):
CNBC announced that market maven Inger, guest on the program today.
I believe it's one of Vronsky's regulars, on the Gold-Eagle, if I'm not mistaken. He supposedly is near term bearish on the markets. So what else is new?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 08:59
Scott ....!>(....!):
Gold 339.00 ........hang onto your hats guys.. this could be the big one!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 09:02
Tortfeasor Re: Missile>(Re: Missile):
Ted, like the javelin catcher of yore I eagerly await receipt of your silver pointed thrust. I installed the updated Claris Emailer yesterday and nothing seems to be working properly anymore. I'll keep looking for incoming.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 09:22
That N/A up above for silver is +.09 on EBN

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:00
vrosnky Seven GoldenThreads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven GoldenThreads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:19
Este Poor Kohl!>(Poor Kohl!):

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:27
Tortfeasor What have we here>(What have we here):
What have we here

^XAU 10:25AM 100.19 +2.08 +2.12%

Not bad for a suckegg gold market

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:29
Reify @ SO?>(@ SO?):
OK Friends, is this rally to be trusted, what say you?
According to our newcomer RJ- the answer is NO.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:30
Tortfeasor Belated Bonus Joke>(Belated Bonus Joke):
As an afterthough I post the following because I am so encouraged with the gold market.

A Sunday school teacher asked her class, Does anyone know
Jesus' Mother's name?

Susie raised her hand and said, It was Mary. The teacher
said, Very good Susie. Do you know Jesus' Father's name?

Little Johnny said, Yes, it was Virgil. the teacher asked how he
came up with her answer. He said, You know, Verg 'n Mary.....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:31
George S. Cole XAU up 2%>(XAU up 2%):
XAU and HUI up strongly, August gold down just 30 cents. That is the kind of action I like -- the stocks leading bullion north.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:32
panda @>(@):
As we wait with bated breath.....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:32
Duncan N.A. Paladium (PDLCF)>(N.A. Paladium (PDLCF)):
Could someone explain how paladiums impressive ascent has had so little
impact on N.A. Paladium ( PDLCF ) ?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:36
Scott ........!>(........!):
XAU UP +3.05 yyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeeeeee aaaaaahhhhhh

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:36
George s. Cole conservatives and liberals>(conservatives and liberals):
We all know that old saw that a conservative can be defined as a liberal who has been mugged.

But what is a liberal or populist? Answer -- a conservative who has been laid off.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:37
panda @>(@):
Duncan -- One word, ignorance.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:37
Tortfeasor Update>(Update):
Looks real from here

^XAU 10:36AM 101.17 +3.06 +3.12%

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:38
cyclist gold@platinum>(gold@platinum):
FWIW,lots of gold-platinum spreads.Sometimes they have to be covered.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:41
vronsky Intra-Day Charts>(Intra-Day Charts):

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:41
cyclist gold@platinum>(gold@platinum):
FWIW,lots of gold-platinum spreads.Sometimes they have to be covered.
Nice retracement for abx and bgo.Time to go long.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:42
bw usa treasury bills:>(usa treasury bills:):
Many consider this unsecured debt to be the ideal paper holding. For years I did too. Should things go bad the treasury could simply print up crisp new currency to pay off the tbills as they mature, goes a theory. However this may not be the optimal political solution at that time. One alternative our political masters could take would be to convert the 30 day tbills into 30 year tbonds. Sorry but we must give you no choice in this. But look at the good side. Since we did not print up all that new currency there will be little inflation, thus your new tbonds will pay interest at 2% a year.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:54
Reify @VOLUME?>(@VOLUME?):
Believe at the end of the day the deciding factor as to what this rally in gold is all about will be the volume. Would like your input-all.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:57
junior with a bad wiseguy accent>(with a bad wiseguy accent):
I no wanna annibody to be baahing thiz rally You justa watch it go up you see This is notta the real thing. you waitta a few more weeks before you buy. we fool you before and this is the same . Nobody believe this is it It cannot be. Gold and silver no turna like this. You waita. You see. Just keep watching and you no buya Capisce.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:57
APH =================>(=================):
XAU - it's a fake out rally, you'll be able to buy at better prices in the next few days

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 10:58
Duncan For John Disney>(For John Disney):
John - thanks for the hedging information - much appreciated. I am quite heavily into Joel and wonder what this 50% hedging obligation will
have on the stock should the price ( of gold ) rise significantly?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 11:01
Duncan Panda / PDLCF>(Panda / PDLCF):
Thanks Panda - I'll be patient!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 11:29
general to Duncan re PDLCF>(to Duncan re PDLCF):
It could just be that not many know of NA Palladium since it
is so thinly traded. I heard of it through the Silver and Gold
Report newsletter and bought shares on its recommendation. I
bought at 5.32 so I am still in the whole but getting closer to
break-even. Are you a share-holder? They also have made a
lot of investments into needed equipment/procedures which could
be impacting prices negatively short term. We may need that
general bull market before they get the attention they deserve.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 11:53
SWC continues to disapoint.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 12:03
RT @the pits>(@the pits):
I'll bet GLENN is having fun in the pits today!!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 12:04
Duncan To: General>(To: General):
General - got a few PDLCF's - was lucky enough to get in at 3 3/8.
With the prices where they are it looks a real bargain IMHO.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 12:26
auroelf US Treasury web page>(US Treasury web page):
All: The US Treasury web page has been improved. You can get T-note auction results the day of the sale, see a schedule of upcoming auctions, request statements on your Treasury account, calculate values of savings bonds and indexed notes, order forms to participate in auctions, etc.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 12:39
Old saw worked in 2 of last 3 years. CNBC-TV financial celebrity Inger Letter Forecast of 6/2/97 is insightful. See Gold Digest & Reload:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:01
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) @snooze time>(@snooze time):
US share market is up, gold is up ( a bit ) ....Great. I'm off to bed.
1 am here!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:05
news @for u>(@for u):

LONDON, June 5 ( Reuter ) - Soaring platinum and palladium

prices on a lack of available supplies dominated precious metals

trading on Thursday morning, traders said.

Palladium fixed at $235.00 per ounce, its highest fixing

since the twice-daily fix began in 1989 and its highest spot

price since early 1980.

Platinum, its sister metal, was fixed at $440, the highest

fixing since September 15, 1995.

``Things are very tight in the spot market. A big U.S. hedge

fund is holding 1.5 million ounces ( of palladium ) and who knows

when this will come on the market,'' a dealer said.

``Every participant who is short in palladium is being forced

to borrow,'' he added.

That need was sending borrowing rates -- especially for

between a day and a month -- to unprecedented levels.

``If you borrow overnight you have to pay more than 200

percent. And one-month lease rates are at 165 percent,'' he said.

Platinum one-month rates were 60 percent versus a regular

two-three percent.

``If the funds don't deliver, what will people who are short

do? Someone is squeezing palladium market and this raises legal

issues,'' the dealer said.

However a senior market source debunked any idea of

culpability. ``It maybe an ugly world but it is a free world and

the funds cannot be forced to put their metal back into the

market to relieve those who don't have any,'' the source said.

Compared with gold, platinum and palladium are very small

markets and are not blessed with overground stocks running into

tens of thousands of tonnes held by central banks.

``The funds have the ammunition to manipulate it and that is

what they are doing in conjunction with Russia's problems. It is

a sort of double whammy for the market,'' the source continued,

adding that if similar problems hit the gold market central

banks would come in.

Russia the largest exporter of palladium and the second

biggest supplier of platinum after South Africa, has been out of

the market this year due to administrative problems in Moscow.

This week it opened 1997 export talks with importers in

Japan, its biggest customer, and exports could begin on June 20,

according to Russian negotiators.

But the squeeze will take another couple of months to

unwind, according to dealers.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:12
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Tort: Just got in from de woods and runnin zee chainsaw...Missile arrive yet?...George S. Cole ( 10:36 ) Right on GSC! Now yer gettin into the spirit!..XAU up 2.42 and from lookin at the earlier posts I guess I missed the best part...Typical!..Novice: Yer bomb arrived and is bein defused...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:21
Byron @ Where Does the Line Form?>(@ Where Does the Line Form?):
200% overnight lease rates!!! No bad, no bad. Better than the credit card companies and the rates at the Hoboken docks in the 1950-60's. What a wonderful business to be in.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:24
Byron @ ooops.>(@ ooops.):
No bad = Not bad.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:35
RMW @the.mark>(@the.mark):
Can anybody here name a few key platinum and palladium exploration and production companies that are publicly traded in Canada and the U.S? I would like to watch their prices and think about buying the stocks.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:49
Short Bull (Midday Comments) @ APH you the man! -- XAU fakeout rally today>(@ APH you the man! -- XAU fakeout rally today):
I agree with APH that today in the XAU should only be a one-day pop
and next week I plan to buy back at lower prices. The metals should
be higher tomorrow and they will probably make a temporary high tomorrow
for a small 3 day correction due to profit-taking...I actually said
profit-taking in regards to going long metals. The lack of rally in
gold also does not bode well for the XAU short-term.

What I think will drag down the XAU is the stock market. Since we
are rallying into Monday's Bradley point ( give or take 2 days ) . That
means today or Friday we could top out for a very much needed
correction. If I am wrong I will buy back with futures. In any case
I am selling out of both my 1/2 XAU position today ( Rydex Precious Metals
fund ) and out of my 1/2 position in NASDAQ 100 ( Rydex OTC ) and going
to cash.

If we get any kind of spike down tomorrow, early or late, I would rather
be playing in mutual funds rather than being long mutual funds and stuck
to a closing price. Just a bit of caution....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:49
Byron @ Moving Up and Out:>(@ Moving Up and Out:):
Xau at up 3.32 or up 3.38%. Stay out of the way.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:54
Byron @ SEA:>(@ SEA:):
Dow up +80. A rising tide carries all ships.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:54
Byron @ SEA:>(@ SEA:):
Dow up +80. A rising tide raises all ships!!!!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 13:56
Tortfeasor markets>(markets):
Byron, as Howard Ruff used to say, when the wind blows hard enough even turkeys fly.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:00
ATT RMW: The study PLATINUM: THE RICH MAN'S GOLD will answer in part your posting. However, there precious few ( pardon pun ) outside Africa- SEE:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:01
Tortfeasor For Ted>(For Ted):
Ted, no missle yet. Something weird is happening to my computer I fear. Why don't you send a short message to test my email. Thanks.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:02
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
XAU up 3.41...WOW!...Dow up 77...DOUBLE WOW!...Hi Tort!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:04
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Roger...will do!...I labored over THAT e-mail...sigh...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:06
Byron @ Turkey Talk:>(@ Turkey Talk:):
Tort: Turkeys don't fly

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:07
cyclist platinum >(platinum ):

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:11
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Tort: Just launched another missile yer way...XAU up 3.23!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:16
Duncan To: RMW>(To: RMW):
RMW - North American Paladium : NASDAQ ( PDLCF ) ; Toronto S.E. ( PDL, I think ) .

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:18
Byron @ Shooting Star:>(@ Shooting Star:):
Cyclist: What time does platinum futures close. Gold closes in about 10 minutes.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:39
cyclist time>(time):
Byron:same time on the NYMEX

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:42
George S. Cole gold bull>(gold bull):
August gold now up $1.30 as bullion follows the stocks north. Gold shorts must be a getting a little nervous today.

Shortbull: I have no doubt you are an excellent trader but your philosophy of always going for small short-term gains practically GUARANTEES you will miss the big move when it comes. I too am far from sure this is the beginning of the long awaited bull, but am willing to hang in there until it comes. But we must all follow the investment strategy we are most comfortable with.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:51
Byron @ What A Difference A Few Days Make:>(@ What A Difference A Few Days Make:):
On Kitco's Precious Metals board: Spread between Gold and Platinum almost $90.00 now. Jeez: seems like it was only a short time ago that gold was higher then platinum : )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:51
cherokee @roller-coaster>(@roller-coaster):
gold dec '98 call options with a strike of $370.00,
are $60.00 each!!

this is how you stay and play with the big boys, you
can touch them, but they cannot touch you.

risk is set at time of option purchase. an entire year to
control 100 ozs. of gold for $60.00 + broker fee!!

this is a buy. these puppies will see the same action
as platinum and palladium are currently seeing.

buy one or two per month as they become available. this will
ensure you are in with both feet when the inevitable happens.
no guru can predict when, or how. these insurance policies ( cheap options )
are your guarantee of success in a market that is not subject to
normal supply and demand. when control is finally wrested from their taskmasters, it will be as if the west were opened for squatters again.
the stampede will be incredible, as billions of dollars begin flowing
from paper assets to tangible, physical assets. the available
warehoused stocks vs. the billions of dollars that will flow into
the metals, will cause the highest prices in history. options at $60.00
could easily command 100K or more! who cannot afford to invest $110.00
per month, for this kind of potential return? historically, this is a good bet. fundamentally, this is a good bet. technically, this is a
good bet.

sounds like a good bet to me, and rosen WILL PAY sooner, or later!!
my insurance policies are in effect in gold, silver, crude-oil, and

you carry insurance policies on your property betting against the
elements, and man-made disasters. why not use the same technique
for futures? the only exception being, the tremendous POTENTIAL
for profit? let these cheap insurance policies PAY YOU. they will
pay, if you play, using YOUR mind to make YOUR own decisions.

who knows when all the ascribed to events ( that we all know are coming )
will actually arrive? your insurance policies will make you wealthy,
and help ROSEN to work for a living. the scavengers, and short sellers
will wake-up in a bottom-less pool of ink, with the LONG-finned sharks
rushing with gaping jaws, to their rescue!!!

cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile, crusher-of-copper-bulls.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:54
vronsky P-L-A-T-I-N-U-M>(P-L-A-T-I-N-U-M):

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:55
yellowdog @dreaming>(@dreaming):
Whats that saying: plan your work and work your plan or something of that sort.....anyway, to each his own. As long as you have a strategy and the perserverance to stick to it if you believe in it or the guts to change it when you need to.

BTW: how many of you are looking at platinum with amazement and closing your eyes wishing it was the yellow metal and if there will ever be a day we goldbugs ( at least the new ones ) will be able to sit back and gleefully watch our wealth multiply that rapidly. ( not RJ, thats for sure )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 14:56
cyclist short@positions>(short@positions):
FWIW short positions are building up in the gold/platinum spreads.
This forebodes high volatility when positions has to be covered,
Fireworks,you bet.This could become a hot June and July.
Next targets for July Platinum 450 and 480 in that order, with the spread
in the order of 100 /120.Gold would top out between 350 and 370.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:03
bw A question:>(A question:):
I recently said to my wife that it was time to lay in some gold. She looked at necklaces while I picked up some krands for the grandkids. I paid a few percent over spot for the krands. She ended up picking out a 60 gram piece that looks stunning on her. We paid about 300% over spot for the necklace. Of course since gold is such a good buy she told me there were a few other pieces she desired. I winced and told her I would get her some krands or even some beatiful eagles. She told me, I can not wear a coin.

I constantly read of 10% to 20% markups on jewellery sold in the mideast and asian markets. Perhaps our jeweller friends could tell us why the large markup here? Can you imagine the jewerlly demand here in the usa with even say a 50% markup? Perhaps someone does not want a gold demand component that even the central banks might have trouble filling at 350 an ounce. We are constantly told the global economy is bringing the benefits of global competition to all markets. This does not seem to be the case with gold jewerlly in this country. I wonder if Rubin et al have any insight on this?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:04
ted butler default fears>(default fears):
The failure of the palladium lease and forward market ( yahoo biz story at 11:59 ) amid 300% rates and default fears was preordained. Just as the coming failure and defaults in metal lease markets in platinum, gold and silver are preordained. While it is impossible to predict when, it is not difficult to predict that there will be a similar outcome because of the very nature of metal leases. Because you must have a deficit consumption pattern for metal leases to exist in the first place, and because the loaned metal is being consumed as an integral part of the loan, it is only a matter of time before the parties involved realize there is nothing to repay the loans with. The only way for the loans to be repaid would be if a surplus pattern developed, and that could only happen with sharply higher prices and much time.

While it is thought that CBs have much gold to lend, when they realize that they will not be repaid, they will move to call in their loans. Very few will come out whole.

It is also annoying, and I suppose par for the course, that the same story broached the subject of manipulation in the sharp rise for palladium. As is common knowledge, manipulation only exists to the upside. A related story at 12:26, listed the amount of palladium and platinum held in the U.S. Defense stockpile, as the shorts were starting to eye that as an answer to their ill-conceived shorts and loans - doesn't that make you feel good. Just a warm up for gold and silver.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:04
MoreGold @Gold options>(@Gold options):
Cherokee, are you talking futures options? I was quoted 180. for the
97/Dec Gold Calls. It's 1.80 per ounce. Dec/97's were 1.00 per ounce.
I agree with you this is a steal at current levels, even if Gold still hasn't bottomed?
The risk is losing your premium, and the upside is open......
Meryl Lynch, keep on writing those calls.....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:05
Novice @NAP (North American Palladium) Time?>(@NAP (North American Palladium) Time?):
Several queries about North American Palladium noted here lately.... For a start on some info, I've posted a couple of URLs on Kitco-II.

Hi Ted! Glad my goose made it to NDP heaven...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:08
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Cherokee: I know this has been mentioned before but the short-term memory ain't what it used to be ...Does Barry Rosen have a site on the net

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:09
Byron @ Heads Up!!!>(@ Heads Up!!!):
Missiles coming in at 12:00 o'clock ( PST ) . XAU at the high of the day. 101.64 +3.53

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:13
MoreGold @calls>(@calls):
Clarification: Dec/97 call 380.-strike was 1.00
and Dec/97 call 370.-strike was 1.80.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:16
lurker500 @fakeout or breakout-doesnt really matter>(@fakeout or breakout-doesnt really matter):
Irregardless of whether or not the run up in the XAU is a fakeout breakout or not, I still like it. Even if it is a fakeout, its hard to believe at this point that any subsequent decline would be to new lows. risk/reward seems reasonable to me at least.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:17
Byron @ Fall Out>(@ Fall Out):
Dow losing some of its luster and taken some of the juice out of XAU.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:25
To Ted @Barry 'fortucast' Rosen>(@Barry 'fortucast' Rosen):
Fortucast Market Timing, Inc. PO Box 2066 Fairfield, IA 52556 ( 515 ) -472-6866

Barry Rosen, the founder of Fortucast Market Timing, began the service in
with a monthly timing newsletter titled Investor's Fortucast. Mr. Rosen has
M.A.'s from the University of Illinois and Indiana University, and has taught
at the University of Iowa. Fortucast is registered as a CTA with the CFTC.
Barry advises nearly a thousand clients through hotlines, fax services and

Barry focuses on 23 markets in his publications, and his eclectic market
timing methodology includes Gann, Elliott Wave, and unique cyclical timing
devices based on the work of Gann. Barry has published numerous articles in
Trader's World, and the NCGR Journal on the relationships of geocosmic cycles
to timing the markets.

Email address:


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:27
Jack Silver>(Silver):

Yahoo article on Palladium ( June 4 6:13 PM EDT ) . Check
very end of it --talk in the past few days of a player
looking to borrow 50 million ounces of silver.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:38
cyclist spot @gold>(spot @gold):
FYI ,Gold spot 343.45.It is going to be interesting on the Asian markets.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:41
TED @toted>(@toted):
To Ted ( 15:25 ) Thanks Bro!...Tort: We made contact!....Tomorrow is the biggie...The employment report....XAU up 2.83 and the temperature is 39!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:56
APH ================>(================):
Cherokee - I just checked the price of the Dec 98 Comex Gold Calls 100 oz. they quoted me 11.80 or $ 1,180 per option. Which options are you speaking of?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 15:59
APH ....>(....):
Sorry, that was a strike of 370.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:10
Duncan TED - ? @ Beach>(TED - ? @ Beach):
TED - is that celsius of farenheit? - either way, my commiserations!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:20
George S. Cole risk/reward ratios>(risk/reward ratios):

You are absolutely right about gold stock risk/reward ratios. They have never been better. For the big gold mutual funds such as FSAGX and FSPMX, I can see 200%-300% upside potential over the next 12-18 months if bullion goes to $500 as I expect,versus perhaps another 10% on the downside if bullion drops to $325 before taking off, which now seems very unlikely.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:21
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Duncan ( 16:10 ) Farenheit my 30-40 MPH winds whippin off the chilly North Atantic...not a bad beach day fer here...Hey how bout that we's goin decimal in 2000...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:21
George S. Cole risk/reward ratios>(risk/reward ratios):

You are absolutely right about gold stock risk/reward ratios. They have never been better. For the big gold mutual funds such as FSAGX and FSPMX, I can see 200%-300% upside potential over the next 12-18 months if bullion goes to $500 as I expect, versus perhaps another 10% on the downside if bullion drops to $325 before taking off, which now seems very unlikely.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:30
George s. Cole Big Trader>(Big Trader):
Note that today's wild upside action occurred right after Big Trader's latest post. Coincidence? I don't think so. Big Trader must be taken seriously.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:36
Cherokee: Were your option numbers related to a 'mini' contract of some sort. If your quoted numbers were for a standard 100 Oz contract they should have been $600 per option rather than $60. As posted yday I bought some Dec 98 400s at 400 yday.

For those unfamiliar with them damned options, try not ever to buy at market. Put in a bid and be willing to let it ride for awhile. Yday the offer was $470 per option, I put in a bid of $400 and was surprised to get a fill withing an hour. ... should have put in an even lower bid.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:37
GLENN-- We want to hear about your day today !!! :- )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 16:39
CHEROKEE.....See if your source can sell a few more Dec98 $370s@60....I can use a few dozen wrapped or plain......

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:10
Earl - If the ask was $470 your bid of $400 sounds realistic to me, but fpr sure I would rather have the $370's for $600! Seems to me we had afew other experts around here besides Glenn who were very knowledgable about the options. Since things seem to be heating up I hope they return and enlighten us. My prediction, ( many months ago ) , that a Platinum over Gold spread might pay off handsomely has finally born mega fruit. Soon ( this week? ) will be the time to cash in. Take advice from the many but make your own call!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:11
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


The power of the Canadian Metric system has struck once more my friend. Decimal Trading coming to a stock near you !!

Next you'll be drinking LITRES rather than quarts of your favorite substances ...... BUT don't worry, a Litre is a hell of a lot bigger than any pint you've ever had !!!! ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:19
vronsky Preordained Precious Metals Implosion: GOLD & SILVER>(Preordained Precious Metals Implosion: GOLD & SILVER):
ALL: IN REFERENCE TO TED BUTLER'S 15:04 POST ( default fears ) -
In light of the explosive rise of PLATINIM & PALLADIUM in recent days, it behooves us ALL to reread Guest Guru Ted Butler's extraordinary and daring letter actually sent to The Federal Reserve Board and The U.S. Treasury Department ( ATT: Greeenspan & Rubin ) . The letter is a lengthy indepth analyis of the Central Bank's dangerous and dubious practice of Gold Loans ( leases ) , and its eventual and inevitable dire financial consequences. In essence - and IMO - it is a FAST-FORWARD of what is in store for the GOLD and SILVER markets. To read his letter:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:23
Hong Kong is as a great flowing river that has reached
the ocean of her birth. They fear her no more. But a
great “Noble House” has come out of these waters
and it will not fail. Bring London’s problems to us, one
by one and they shall be dealt with.
If they have no fear then let them look behind as
South Africa has drawn her sword. Many will
soon loose their heads in a mad rush to find
“real gold”!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:34
tarnished in out of the rain>(in out of the rain):
TED: Not a bad day fer ABX, but PDG seemed to be the big winner today.
How's da weather?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:37
Auric @home>(@home):

Speaking of Hong Kong, will they continue to have
their currency pegged to the US dollar?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:18
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Well I wasn't going to post anything tonight but ....
Anyway I know everyone wants to hear some great stories but to tell you the truth they have a fan at the exchange and it moves back and forth plowing air on the traders. Well I've caught myself a cold and I believe it is from this fan. COMEX moves to a new building after the July 4th holiday and someone said that they did not like the fans either but not to worry because when we move they we not be there. I was sniffling all day and felt awful.

So about Gold. I knew that the move was over extended yesterday but I did not expect such a big move overall. The fact that we closed on the highs above $345 bodes well for tomorrow. I'm not sure how high this is going, ( I'm sick and I'm going to bed early and I'll wake up early and figure it out then ) but my gut says maybe $1.50 or so and that is it. Also with platnuim up as much as it was no doupt that had an influence on Gold and I do not know platnuim that great but if it opens lower then the rally in Gold may have even less to go. I hate to sound like the commentators on CNBC but a close below $340 is very bearish and a close above $350.0 is bullish. I was able to catch some of the move up today when I saw the XAU up over 2 points and gold was only up $0.20 or so. It just hit me that the low had been made. Unfortuniotly I got out of my Long to quickly. Oh well, like I said I was feeling awful today. More this weekend.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:19
They say everyone has a rhetorical pattern which positively identifies a person. Well, I think I know who BIG TRADER is. There is only one other person I know who is able to speak in such characteristically cryptic terms. And that is Alan Greenspan answering questions from Congressional Committees. HEY! Who knows - even he has to have a way to unwind - to get his kicks, so to speak. We razz him nearly daily at Kitcos, so maybe this is his way of getting even.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:20
Front: I'm already drinking quarts. Thats the problem. ...... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:44
Spud Master what a pile of nonsense>(what a pile of nonsense):
I've heard such nonsense before. BT sounds like Orwell's Big Brother - a made-up nobody whom a handful promote & laud in order to gain sway through opinion. A cold, hard look at BTs text reveals it to be as general as Nostradomus' one-size fits all prognostications. For my money, I'll bet BT is Mr. Vronsky.


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:46
All: Last nite I had the good sense to visit Vronsky's site and read Oracle's Seven Threads before calling it a nite. Oracle has knitted together many of the loose ends that we have been discussing on this site for many months. The seventh thread initially violated my inherent disregard for devil theories. That is: That the world is controlled by 12 gnomes in Zurich. Or some such.

However, when put in the context of his entire piece, Oracle may be closer to the truth than many us may be willing to admit. Especially when we think about the clear manipulation in the gold market. Aided, abetted and encouraged by monetary authorities. An activity which we didn't even consider as a possibility until some months ago. Now we find such was indeed the case. And it is only one example, though closest to our hearts.

In short, the stakes are so high for nations and fiat monetary systems that only a fool would discount, out of hand, his final conclusions. It is truly a well thought out piece of work and a first rate read.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:48
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
I'm expecting an early move up to/about 346.5-347 August gold in the A:M. It would be most splendid if it did a lot more than that! Thereafter, I don't know yet. Just have to wait and see how it reacts at whatever 'that' level winds up being. It 'shouldn't' correct back below the 344.8 area without meaning it IMHO.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:49
MoreGold @Moves>(@Moves):
Platinum had a + $25. day.
Gold needs a couple of + $25. days.
Anythings possible - who would have thought 2.5 months ago when platinum was around 355. that it would be bidding $430. and asking $ it did today.
Keep the faith.....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 18:56
RT @balanced budget>(@balanced budget):
We now have a balance budget officially endorsed by our lovely Congress ( USA ) ....thank god....our children are saved!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:02
More Gold: With a spread like that, there was no room for widows and orphans. Not real good for a daytrade either. Wait till gold begins to trade with an equal spread. It will guarantee that many will be left at the station too frightened to jump on board. .... Going long, knowing that you have make $25 just to get even, takes real conviction. ...... Glenn. Are ready for those days?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:10
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Tarnished: Here you are again...The weather is quite nice thank you...We peaked at 42 ( F ) and it's been all downhill since then and just think in 17 days the days will start gettin shorter...and shorter..until we plunge into total darkness...What's yer take on tonight Gold up or down?..Flyers or Red Army ( yer and Ediot's team ) ....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:22
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
An interesting Gold Graph!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:22
lurker @the trader>(@the trader):
South African mines are heavily hedged and are therefore very short gold. Big Trader has implied in his last two posts that S.A. is now aware of the problem, and will attempt to unwind their hedges. If only it be true....

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:25
George S. Cole The Whites>(The Whites):
LGN on the whites:


Palladium market makers tried to establish order in their market. However,
we remain of the opinion that the end of an acute shortage of the rare white
metal, which has caused recent price swings, depends mainly on Russia
resuming delayed exports.

We have heard that that a measure to help the market forward rates will be
put in place, but only on a ``quote suggestion'' basis. Namely, there has
been no absolute contractual commitment determined as of yet. This measure
tries to address the issue of dealers who have stopped quoting forward rates
for palladium after the cost of borrowing skyrocketed to 300% for 1-month

Out of interest, you should know that market-makers are under obligation to
quote spot rates; however, although they have traditionally done so, they do
not need to state forward rates for platinum group metals.

Market players borrow metal, rather than buy, when they think high prices
will not last -- an issue that could arise again either when Russia
re-starts exporting, or when speculative funds sell out their positions.

Lack of Russian supplies has been compounded by speculative buying by
investment funds. According to our sources, the U.S. Tiger Management Fund
holds 1.5 million ounces of palladium. However, funds have to maneuver this
situation very carefully, if they are to have a profitable position at all.
Indeed, they are reluctant to become sellers, since each time they have
offered small metal amounts, prices started to fall abruptly.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:28
GFD The 8th Thread>(The 8th Thread):
Earl: Suppose that 7 Threads is basically sound ( although I too squirm a bit ) . How do you suppose the Chinese would react to it?

The reunification of Hong Kong does have considerable patriotic meaning to China as it redresses an ancient humiliation. What is not so widely known is the fact that China was also forced to accept foreign currency rather than gold for it's exports at that time - another humiliation.

Now suppose we have the one world currency shaping up and whatever else the Chinese may think of it they know that it will not be a Chinese currency. They will most likely look at this as an attempt to pre-empt or mitigate the emergence of a dominant Chinese economy in the 21st century by western interests.

One response would be to ignore or opt out of the plans afoot. But a more satisfying approach perhaps would be to hijaack those plans. Suppose that what triggers the hypothetical financial apocolapse required for a one world currency is an explosion in the price of gold. And suppose the one world currency is a gold backed Yuan.

This is one scenario that would explain exactly what Big Trader may really be up to with his allegedly massive accumuation of physical gold.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:35
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy
TED: I have no affiliation to that lazy shiftless fat sociallist drug smoking pig of an Ediot what continues up...I hope
and the Wings win again, however a loss would make fer a better series.
As long as Stevie pulls a couple points.
You should take Ediot to a game, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll take a slapshot to the head, might even hear his two brain cells bump one another!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:38
I hear the DOW is seeking licencing for options, anyone have anything on this?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:39
George S. Cole: Thanks for that last post. It put another piece in place for me. I previously had not realized/understood that 'users' would actively borrow or lease in anticipation of lower prices.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:54
TED @Spudmaster>(@Spudmaster):
Spud Master ( 18:44 ) Right on! What a bunch of juvenile crap!..

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:01
I'm confused about the backwardization in Pa. Would someone please
help me out ( even all you lurkers - I'll even withhold your name from
anything you send me ) .
The standard reason given for the out-months in PA being less then June
is that the supply will be available then. I say so what!! The supply
is fine right now for the right price. Why would anyone think
Russia is going to sell their PA for less in two or three months? Debeers is the perfect example for them. They keep the supply of the
product at just the right level to get their price.

This whole arguement is only valid if Russia has PA to sell - which I'm
not convinced of anyway. But assuming they do - why do people think
they are going to sell it fo

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:02
I'm confused about the backwardization in Pa. Would someone please
help me out ( even all you lurkers - I'll even withhold your name from
anything you send me ) .
The standard reason given for the out-months in PA being less then June
is that the supply will be available then. I say so what!! The supply
is fine right now for the right price. Why would anyone think
Russia is going to sell their PA for less in two or three months?
Debeers is the perfect example for them. They keep the supply of the
product at just the right level to get their price.

This whole arguement is only valid if Russia has PA to sell - which I'm
not convinced of anyway. But assuming they do - why do people think
they are going to sell it for $170 in September? When they can get $200+
in June.

Is this a case where the money is just sitting in the corner waiting for
someone to come over and pick it up? Mr. Rogers?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:02
GFD: Your comments refreshed/recalled a past reading of the British experience and the Boxer rebellion. Two points come to mind.

1. Those events ocurred little more than 100 years ago. That is far from ancient history in a western sense and even more certainly in a Chinese context. After all, the age of Confucious was 3500 years ago and his influence is as palpable as if it were yesterday.

2. In addition to the other offenses you outlined, the British were also responsible for the introduction of opium into China. To the Brits it was one helluva profitable venture. The Brits were committed to continuing the enterprise and the Chinese protested. To no avail. In end, the Chinese found no other avenue to its discontinuance and subsequently rebelled.

Your comments make a lot of sense.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:04
Hawk @Inco>(@Inco):
Inco Strike...

Seems that Inco wants to create a shortage in metals.
Inco is one of the biggest mines in Canada. ( nickel & copper )
With a lot of talk of shortages in metals including gold already, there is going to be massive amounts of information about the effects of this strike from the media.

The whole city is driven by Inco's money.
Approx. 5000 workers on strike. This strike could spark the metals.
The workers have been out 2 days now and with the XAU's activity today, could it be because of the strike at INCO?

Inco publicaly announced that they want to create a shortage to boost their share value.

I feel all metals are getting lots of news creating hunger pains in the investors.


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:09
TED @stanleycup>(@stanleycup):
Once again 340 has all we need is a Flyers victory!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:13
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Ted : I think tarnished likes Eddie!!! The Gold index on the TSE had a nice move today, maybe opinion is starting to shift. I think BT stands for Big Turd !!! The Flyers better pull one out or it's lights out!!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:13
Little Pete @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Tarnished: You is a very mean old man and my daddy don't like you!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:16
Hawk @ Inco publicaly announced that they want to create a shortage to
boost their share value.
Could you post the pertinant article?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:24
Earl - It's time you took a break from your deeper ruminations ( ? ) . What's it gonna be tonight Philly ( creamcheese ) or Detroit ( BBQ wings ) ?
Since you're usually right about everything else I'll take your judgement on rthis one and give Ted 2-1 odds. ( Of course if you pick Detroit he still won't take the odds! )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:27
6pak MAI @ Canada>(MAI @ Canada):
MAI ( Multilateral Agreement on Investment ) prepared by O.E.C.D.

Although MAI was scheduled for ratification by the USofA Senate this fall, it has not yet been released to the public. It has been drafted virtually in secret over the last two years and has had almost no coverage in the press. ( Canada election, not mentioned )

The government wants it signed and the less said about it the better.
One section references, something about not allowing free-for-all investment to hurt too much. ( Gold, maybe eh! )

Also: No sovereign government ( for next 15 years ) would have the right to give any regulatory advantage to the firms that are based in that government's own country.

The MAI agreement, negotiated queitly by government and trade representatives of the 29 richest nations, is designed to free the flow of investment capital and profits.

Well guys, what will this do for gold. Are we in a free market. The rules have changed, how will one, take advantage of such happenings.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:30
Haw @Inco>(@Inco):

I saw it on CBC news at 6:00 pm. The news segment also talked about the economic impact on Sudbury Ont.
A long strike is very possible. No talks are scheduled.
Workers were also interviewed. They want some of the big INCO dollars.
Inco has not offered a wage increase. Only better pension plan.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:33
Hawk @inco>(@inco):
That should of been Hawk, not Haw..... sorry

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:35
Hold your tickets - all bets are off. Philly just took the lead on a power play goal. ( six pack - if you're in Canada, why ain't you watchin the game? ) Besides which if you had of asked me before the game I would have said Philly tonight. ( They have got to win a few as I predicted Detroit in seven - Right? ) Oh no - Stevie scores a big come back goal - all tied up 1-1. C U L8R

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:38
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
6pak -- The free-for-all investment in gold would do exactly what BT has said. The commodity would simply stop trading at the same time the actual physical commodity couldn't be had. Perhaps that's one of the reasons they want to get this 'implemented'! So 'those' paper traders and loaners won't bite the BIG ONE! The same might also be said of a lot of other paper out there also. IMHO.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:38
Hawk - If you got time to watch the six o'clock news - how come you ain't got time to watch the game? OH NO - Federov has just put Detroit in the lead - un assisted! This time I'm SERIOUS - C YA!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:46
Byron @ Finally the Ninth:>(@ Finally the Ninth:):
On the June Futures Gold contract with today intraday low, I got a confirmation of the 9th wave down from the March, l997 top. That is we had a series of lower lows. See The symbol for the chart is gcm7 ...Also I looking for a break above 153.00 on the HUI and 106.20+ on the XAU to confirm a resumption of the bull move up in both of these indexes. April 24, l997 for the XAU still stands as the low and end of the bear market for the gold stocks which began in early 1996.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:46
Hawk @home>(@home):
Mooney. Hawk is watching ice and metals.

What's the cup made ofAnyone know?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:50
Bob @...HK$ to become Yuan ?>(@...HK$ to become Yuan ?):
Anuone know about the financial status of the HK$ after July 1st ? My take is that the Reds will use HK as a front to privatize and recapitalize the mainland economy through solicitations of western capital investment - the story story economy. Wouldn't it be interesting if the West poured dollars into China while - at the same time - the Reds poured surplus dollars into gold reserves ? Just a thought.


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
6pak -- I might also add that it sounds more like the 'black market agreement' where the only way a company might be able to conduct its business if prices were to 'exceed' the agreements' prices, or rise, would be to conduct their purchases/sales 'off market'. Very dangerous to 'free markets' should this be implemented! It might also hail in the 'empty shelf' syndrome!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:53
D.A. wild.times>(wild.times):
To All:

Last I heard a few minutes back platinum was up to around $475. Pa is $225 bid. The forward, lending and option markets have completely shutdown. Cash market spreads are $20 wide in platinum and $10 wide in Pa. Small amounts of metal can move the market a long way. There are a lot of very stressed out people. The biggest losers in the Pa market are going to be the commercial users. I know of a midsize refiner that is plum out of metal and needs to turn it into catalytic converters. We may not be too far away from the point where the politicians get involved. If GM wakes up one morning and finds that the assembly lines must grind to a halt because of no Pa it will be quite interesting. My guess is that sometime within the next month or two there will be a workout between Tiger Fund and the big commercial users of Pa. Until this happens the markets will be totally wild. Never underestimate how far out of hand these things can get. As I guessed a week or two back the next run is going on in Pt because this is the only substitute for Pa. It is looking more and more like the Russians are done with stockpile sales and will only deliver from current production. If this is the case about 2.0 MM ounces of demand will have to be rationed through price. This will keep the price of Pa high for many moons to come. Right now people believe that this is a squeeze that is a short blip and will terminate soon and things will get back to some semblance of order and prices will retreat sharply. This is clearly evidenced by the Sept Pa futures trading $50 below spot. If there is a sharp selloff when Tiger comes to terms or the Russians begin delivering, buy it. The Palladium stocks are great buys hear because no one believe this rally has legs.
Just got a call that the Platinum, and Palladium are shut down. No dealers making markets, last Platinum $525 bid. Got to run. More Later.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:53
Byron @ LIMITS:>(@ LIMITS:):
Business news article I just read on Yahoo stated that Platinum reached its $25.00 move limit today. Hmmmm, I wonder how high it would have gone if there was no limit?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:56
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
EBN gold up 50 cents. Silver up 3 cents.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 20:59
6pak Team @ isn't playing>(Team @ isn't playing):
Mooney: My team isn't playing *MONTREAL*

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:00
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
D.A. -- You think this is also what we have to look forward to also in gold?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:09
Mooney: I don't even know how to respond. .... Hand me bagel and pass the cream cheese? ...... actually does sound good. Nah! wouldn't go with the cheap red wine. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:09
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
FWIW, Dallas Gold and Silver Exchange ( DGSE ) currently shows platinum up 25.00 at 461.60. Previous close at 436.60. Also now shows gold up .70.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:17
Eldo: Methinks we should all undergo a transformation and become platinum bugs or palladium bugs. HL Mencken once said: Sin should be left to the congenitally sinful, who know when to touch it and when to leave it alone. ......... I'm beginning to think the same thing about gold. Some of us are not congenital goldbugs. We come to it, innocently, as a result of a distorted view of the world and bad living habits. We should just leave the damn thing to those so genetically inclined...... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:26
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Perhaps you are correct in that! A few 25 dollar limit days in platinum beats the hell out of a couple dollar move in gold! HAR!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:30
WW @New England>(@New England):
As A Liberal/Left wing politico I know discouragement, and Kitco ( re my disparaged political views ) is just another example but it does not in the least effect my commitment to the progressive cause. Same commitment Re Gold & Silver ie dont give up the fight we are right and will eventually be proven so Gold will rise and the short sellers will rue the day. The problems in platinum and palladium are indicative and perhaps predictive. Our day is coming soon!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:30
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
DGSE now has gold up 1.20 and silver up a nickle! Maybe the P metals move is catching on!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:34
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up 1.0 and Silver up 4 cents....Detroit Red Army 4-1 over Flyers early in second period...

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:34
6pak MAI Knowledge @ If interested>(MAI Knowledge @ If interested):
MAI Agreement details:

Privatization item:
Alternative 2
# 56 [ Special share holding arrangements including, inter alia,
a ) The retention of Goldenshares by Contracting Parties,
b ) Stable shareholder groups assembled by Contracting Parties,
c ) management/employee buyouts, and
d ) ** voucher schemes for members of the public **
hold strong potential for discrimination against foreign investors and are, infact, inconsistant with National Treatment and MFN treatment obligations in many instances ]

Canada,Germany,United Kingdom,Sweden,Spain,Czech Republic,France,Japan,
UsofA,Norway, Hungary etc.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:35
Duncan S.A. Hedging - the KEY>(S.A. Hedging - the KEY):
Hedging by South African marginal mines

1 ) The unemployment rate in South Africa is in the order of 40% ( thats right, forty ) .
2 ) The gold mines are an important source of employment - a not insignificant number are employed by 'marginal mines' i.e., mines where mining costs are around or below the ruling gold price. It is clearly important to keep these marginal mines operating to prevent a deterioration in the employment situation - this would exacerbate the crime and violence in the country which is already of heroic proportions. HENCE HEDGING. The hedging in turn causes the depressed gold price - somehow, prevailing 'forces' ( who or whatever these forces are unknown to me ) have determined a price range of 340 to 350.

The question is - will the South Africans take the risk ( of the cessation of gold hedging ) ? Possible outcomes:

1 ) Gold price rises rapidly and prevents mine closures.
2 ) Continued Central Bank sales nullify effect of cessation of South African hedging activities - gold price remains depressed leading to mine closures - the ensuing deterioration in the employment situation may well result in social mayhem ( in South Africa ) .

Will South Africa stop the hedging? I don't know - do any of you?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:37
NJ wild times>(wild times):
D.A. gold and silver are moving too, but no one else has access to pl and pa prices except that DGSE shows limit move up foe pa. would you please keep us posted.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:38
Paul Friend of Duke's>(Friend of Duke's):
Duke of Earl... I have to admit you have some erudite posts tonight.
Surely must be that California merlot. Or perhaps your holding some
palladium you forgot to tell us about?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:43
Strad Master PA & PL to the moon!>(PA & PL to the moon!):
D.A. In your 20:53 post you wrote, If there is a sharp selloff when Tiger comes to terms or the Russians begin delivering, buy it. I'm not clear as to exactly what you mean. If Tiger or the Russians actually deliver the prices will instantly drop, right? 'Buy it' means: 1 ) sell and go short or 2 ) sell, wait for it to dip, and re-purchase on the turnaround to the upside? My wife and I don't agree on what you mean. I say #1 she says #2. In the interest of domestic tranquility I eagerly await you reply. I still managed to hold on to 120 oz's of PL and 700 oz's of PA despite getting whipsawed out of 11 PA positions on the big drop last week. Now I really want to know how best to play it. Anyway, many thanks in advance. I'll be back later.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:50

I'm getting more and more bullish on gold as the days go by. I will still wait for a signal from my system, but when I see one I will jump big. Whats going on in the white metals is symptomatic of the gigantic transition that is underway. As has been documented here over the last several days, the swing of the political pendulum is gathering great momentum. Just when central banks should be on the alert for world wide syncronous growth with attendant inflation risks they are being politically bludgeoned. Their hands are tied and the blindfolds are in place. Combine this with 17 years of deflationary expectations which have caused inventories to be considered useless baggage and you have a very volatile brew. I don't know if the white metal move will be the catalyst but it may well be. If it comes to GM having to shut down production or come to terms with Tiger fund, a very large light bulb is going to go off in the minds of many purchasing managers throughout the world. The point that inventories have real economic value is going to be driven home in spectacular fashion. This may cause a fevered restocking which will drive commodity prices and growth wild. This will also be the death knell for the financial markets. Somewhere in the ensuing melee the yellow metal will catch fire. Where as the Palladium market can accomodate very few players and very little money, we all know that the gold market can be accessible to the masses. If it rises they will come. Reading today's posts their is such a feeling of gloom here about gold and the XAU that it is a lock that gold is going higher now. Forget $340. No way. This bull market started a few months back at $336. The first good leg is about to get underway. We are going to put the precious back into these metals.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:50
tarnished @Dinghys on ice>(@Dinghys on ice):
Mooney: What game are you watching
The Flyers never had the lead!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:54
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Tarnished: What a vicious unprovoked attack on the CEO of Cow Bay Productions...fer shame...fer shame..

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:55
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Strad -- If I may comment: #1 ) As Dr. Doom says, She will never short a trending market! I agree! That would be a very fine way to put you butt in a frying pan! No one knows where it can/will go to. You might sell, but until the day comes when the trend has really turned, I certainly would not be shorting it! #2 ) If D.A.s' news of 525 bid on the platinum is real, then there will be at least two more days of limit up moves in that metal! Do not sell yourself short. It should give some 'wriggle' before it tops out! Good trading!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:56
panda @review>(@review):
I was just reviewing the DJ headlines for the day when I came across a good one.

AIG International denies rumor of default on NYMEX Palladium.

That headline was posted at 12:42 P.M. E.D.T. by Dow Jones. Is this twilight zone stuff or what?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:58
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
EBN Gold up 1.10 and Silver up 3 cents....fer shame Mr.Tarnished!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 21:59
tarnished @Dinghy on ice>(@Dinghy on ice):
M. Graves: Ediot!....What's not to like?!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:02
6pak true @ true>(true @ true):
Earl @ 21:17 Right on Earl, this person arrived at this site, innocently, yes, with a distorted view & bad living habits.

Now, Agents abound, conspiracy is rampant, Trade Agreements, Central Banks, International Bankers, on and on, Hell, I thought I would use due diligence, and investigate the potential of Gold, as an investment. Then it leads to Government, and crack pots, drugs, manipulation. etc.

Gold is not easy to understand. Nor, are those that follow the Gold, and all of its ramifications. Seven Months at this site, and I am getting
frustrated. There appears to be many more questions, then answers.
I get myself on the wrong side of the moves in Gold. But, that is the design of those that control this metal eh ! ha, ha, ha,

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:04
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Strad -- Change 'trending market' to 'UP-trending market'! A descending market trend can certainly be shorted.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:13
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
BMI shows a high of 347.2 in august gold happening recently! But now at 346.1 last.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:15
panda @?>(@?):
Does anybody have access to NYMEX Access quotes for PL and PA?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:15
MoreGold @Let this be it !>(@Let this be it !):
D.A.: 525. on platinum, something big must be happening.
What will the exchanges do tomorrow? I would assume some traders are
sitting on some large short positions, thinking this rally isn't for real.
This reminds me of an incident @ 4 months ago when a friend wanted to
buy 3 ozs. of platinum at a large retail precious metals dealer. The said they had 1 oz. in stock and couldn't say when they would get more.
The bar charge was $40. above spot.
I wonder how many bars you could find tomorrow.....
Platinum is @ 23 times as rare as Gold, and could have a long way to go yet. To top things off the boom in PC sales is causing more demand as
platinum is required in chip manufacture.
Looks like Gold is the poor mans platinum for now, but for how much longer?
I was going to hold off on buying more Gold calls, hoping for a pullback
but I may jump the gun tomorrow. Merrill Lynch, get ready to write some
more calls........

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:17
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
EBN Gold up 1.15 and Silver up 3 cents....Employment report tomorrow!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:18
D.A. caveat.trader>(caveat.trader):
Strad and Mrs. Strad and any little fiddles:

My thoughts on Pa are that if you own it you are long Sept futures since I doubt you are messing around in the deliverable. If I held this position I would just sit tight. Even if the spot gets sold off I don't think anything bad is going to happen to Sept. If the spot gets sold off and Sept goes down I will be buying with both hands. Right now I'm trying to manage our load in the spot market. We have sold out about 2/3 of our position. We are very, very, happy.

On the Platinum side I'm guessing that you're in July. I have absolutely no idea what is going on here although we hold a small position. Its likely to be limit up on the open tommorrow. Since this will be $50 in two days it might be nice to book a profit. Tonight's action from what I hear is being driven by delta hedging against open option positions. Platinum has a long history of major spike reversals. It would be a pity to watch a huge move evaporate. Then again it might go straight to $600. In short, I don't know. I'll try to keep you updated on the cash market, but right now there isn't one. Most odd.

Whatever you do, don't play these things from the shortside, not even for a minute. No sense dying trying to be a hero. The playing field is currently littered with the bodies of would be heros.

Sorry I haven't replied to your email but I've been in around the clock mode of late. All is well with my family.

Best Regards,

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:26
keva @westcoast>(@westcoast):
DA: I'm with you. Go get em tiger.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:32
P.R. !!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
This was certainly worth coming out of hibernation for. You guys are the best.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:33
Hi then, Hello again.
Bid price for platinum $500 this moment! Who said yesterday $100 gold/platinum spread?
Oh, I did. Sorry I underestimated. July platinum $554 at last glance, backwardization is severe.. Got out at $448, missed a couple bucks at the top but maybe there will be some profit taking tomorrow. I’ll do it again next week. Palladium bounced off $200 like a cement floor. My $204 looked pretty good at $227 in London overnight. I kept it anyway. Strong support in New York today. Palladium will gap up tomorrow. What did I say yesterday? $250 by Friday? Lease rates have reached 300%. The Russian government has suspended all fuel shipments to Norilsk. How will long suffering miners dig ore, process ore, and smelt ore with no fuel? Do you think this move was designed to drive palladium to new highs? Only the Russians have consistently demonstrated the finesse required to simply talk a market up or down. Dare I say, palladium has an outside chance of going higher than gold Those of us with the courage of our convictions are riding a righteous crest unmindful of the remaining doubts of risk gnawing the bones of our more sensible selves.

They heard me in the silver pits and responded nicely with an 11 cent trading day. Did anyone cover your gold at $339.50? Look for a bounce in sympathy with the PGMs and sell it into the basement anywhere above $346. Don’t fight the central banks. They are your friends. Do what they do. It’s easy.

Not since Tyson Foods teamed up with Hillary have industrial traders had such rotten luck. Seas of woe in Japan tonight. The lifeboats are showing no freeboard. An ocean of losses in uncovered shorts is lapping over the sides as these woebegone disbelieves of the palladium storm grimly squish their cold and wrinkled toes inside their Nikes. They will gaze at the horizon and remember fondly a time before the world turned upside down so quick. A time when up was a kinder direction. These are good men. These are brave men, whose only sin was to bite the snake once too often. The worm is out of the tunnel. The hog has turned.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:34
“Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt” by Oracle of Alberta ( CANADA )

A Virtual Eagle’s eye view of the global gold panorama. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? With the expected economic dominance of China in the 21st Century, could it be a Gold backed Yuan ( Renminbi ) An Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:37
I just looked at the NYMEX platinum contract specs. If we go limit up for two consecutive days, then the expanded daily limit schedule goes into effect. The daily limit move becomes $50/oz.

There is no limit during the current delivery month. Wow! I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that trade!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:42
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Gold and silver stink! I losing my freakin' shirt!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:49
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I Need -- Goodwill has a few shirts cheap. But are you in futures or the physical metals? Makes a BIG difference! And if you are in futures, you better learn to 'trade'! Commissions and phone calls are dirt cheap!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:51
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Eldo. No. Just some no-volume, dog with fleas mining shares!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:52

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:57
Duncan: You have made a point that a one or two have raised in the past. Your timing is interesting. How doe your comments fit with the BT post earlier? SA may be swing producer who pulls the wheels off of the spec short cart by pulling in some of there hedge positions. .... T'would be nice. Eh?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:57
The slaughter of fools has begun!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I Need -- If you enlighten us with the name of the company, perhaps there will be someone here that can provide some guidance. Personally, I don't do stocks, but many or most here do. Just ask!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:01
I Need: Don't tell me. Let me guess. Its DKT. .... Gettin' a reaction from the flea powder. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:03


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:03
Option Man totally predictable>(totally predictable):
I can't beleive what I'm seeing here. Tremendous upswings in the platinum market and not a word about making money off the volatility. You're all here to figure the best way to beat the market right? The fact is you'll never do it consistently trying to guess which way its going. If you happen to guess right then you're lucky, not smart.

Volatility on the other hand is ABSOLUTELY predictable! Right now its very high in the PL market. ( So what else is new ) IT WILL GO DOWN! This is an undeniable fact. At some point the PL mkt will settle back to the boring trading ranges of before. Maybe it'll be in the 360-365 range. Maybe in the 490-500 range, makes no difference because the volatility will be way, way down.

I shorted OCT 440 PL calls today taking in $9.00 per oz premium. I will buy them back WHEN, not if, the fluctuations cool down. This is the easiest way to consistently make money in this market and I can't beleive no one's said anything.

WARNING !! -------- Selling naked calls leaves you no less exposed than shorting the contract outright.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:04
WW @New England>(@New England):
I think we can all agree that someday what is happening in Platinum and Palladium will happen in Silver and Gold. The ques is whether all this short selling will cause a problem for our gold companies that sell short. When is it dangerous if ever/the cos I invest in say they only have 15% of reserves sold short and that if the price rose they would love it and roll forward. Does this make sense or is this smoke. Further one co is very short near term ie double 1997 production short 390 calls with all shorts after 12/31/97 covered. Where is the risk if any whats the deal/Comments please.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:05
John Disney: Are you lurking this evening? Thanks for those posts on Db-deep and BLYDY.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:06
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Option Man -- What I said to Strad: DITTO!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:13
ACW Bigfind>(Bigfind):
In todays London Times.

June 6 1997

Mountain find sparks gold fever in


GOLD fever hit Egypt yesterday after official confirmation of
the surprise discovery of huge deposits in an inhospitable and
remote range of hills on the border with Libya.

There is no other discovery like this in Egypt. In fact, it
could be considered a rare discovery on the world level,
Gaber Naeim, chairman of the Geological Survey of Egypt,
told the semi-official Cairo daily al-Akhbar.

The gold is in Jabal Kamel, a rocky outcrop close to the
point where the borders of Egypt, Libya and Sudan meet.
According to Mr Naeim, its quantity dwarfs all other gold
deposits found in the country of 60 million people, the most
populous in the Arab world.

After the controversy surrounding recent exaggerated
reports of gold finds in Indonesia, diplomatic and industry
sources remained wary of assessing the significance of the
Egyptian discovery until more precise data were made
available by the Cairo Government. It is too early to say
what effect, if any, this will have on the world market, one
diplomat said.

Even before the discovery put Egypt's economic prospects
into a new light, one foreign company, Pharaoh Gold Mines
of Australia, was prospecting for gold in the Eastern Desert
and planned to start production there in the middle of this
year. Six other companies were negotiating for concessions
to prospect for gold, either in the Eastern Desert or in
southern Sinai, territory recovered from Israel under the
1979 peace treaty.

The riches buried deep under Jabal Kamel came to light after
the survey sent geologists to the area to look for iron-ore
deposits. They were taken aback to find that there was more
gold than iron in the rock.

The idea was that the gold could cover part of the large
costs of exploiting the iron ore and transporting it out of this
remote area. But it later became clear that the gold was
fundamental and the iron was subsidiary, Mr Naeim said.

He gave no figures for the concentration of gold in the 185
samples his department has taken in two seasons of

But he said: The results showed that the concentration of
gold in the ore is extremely high and that the amount of ore
itself is also extremely high.

The newly found deposits are in a range of hills seven to
eight miles long and six miles across. The seams are between
13ft and 250ft thick. Under the surface of the Earth, there is
another deposit, the size of which is not yet known, Mr
Naeim said. The extent of the unexpected discovery in the
mountains sparked interest throughout the Middle East, with
experts anxious to obtain more detailed figures.

Mr Naeim said that some of the gold was inside Libya and
that Egypt had signed a deal with the Libyan authorities
specifying there should be joint exploitation of the deposits
on the border.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:15
Did I say $554 Meant $454. I type faster than I think.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:15
MM @WW>(@WW):
I can't believe my eyes. A post from WW that actually is gold related!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:16
Chris @erols>(@erols):
Has anyone talked to JD lately?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:16
Fidelity Select American Gold Chart, hourly prices in percent,
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:18
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
EBN Gold up 1.10 and Silver up 3 cents...Goodnight Too Tarnished!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:20
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Can you imagine if they actually drilled into someone's tomb below ground and that's why there's more gold that other metals....

Earl,... with Mooney thinking the Flyers were going to be hot, did you invite him over to help with the Litre stuff? I think he's had more than his share. And here I thought he knew his hockey. NOTHING can stop the guy from Ottawa Stevey Y !!!! ( :- ) )


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:25
Terry @ Canada>(
Before everyone nods off for the night, have a look at this from ABN Site headlines.Do the Chinese know something?
From ABN news room at 6 June 1997 @ 1100hrs
China stops bank money into bourses...

China has unveiled plans to halt the flow of bank funds into the stock market and set a deadline for commercial banks to unwind positions on the markets. Reports say commercial banks must stop trading treasury debt repurchase agreements on the nation's two stock exchanges from today. The move is part of previously announced measures aimed at limiting financial risk. Those measures also aim to protect the banking system which has recently pumped huge amounts of cash into China's stock markets. The central bank has also banned overdrafts used for buying stocks and asked each commercial bank to investigate its own activities to ensure they are complying with regulations.

Copyright © 1996 Asia Business News. All Rights Reserved.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:25
Hello Bart:

You buy and sell the PGMs and gold and silver.

Please tell us how these lease rates are effecting your buisness and are you seeing the same thing ( developing ) in Gold and silver?


Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:29
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Front: Mooney knows nothin about hockey......

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:31
Front: Who were the Flyers? Were they the metaphorical cream cheese? I apologize, with out a score card, I can't keep 'em straight. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:35
Front - I was not really 'thinking' - more like hoping! The reason being that I wanted the series to go at least six games if not seven - the reason being I LOVE to watch playoff games!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:36
I think you will find the following a MUST READ!

For those of you turned off by my typos in the previous postings, What can I say? I was on a roll. Who has time to proofread? Stream of consciousness, no editing, posted immediately. I rely too heavily on my spell check. If you had trouble reading my little gold ditty ( I certainly did ) Here is a slightly more coherent version. These are the first messages I have ever posted to this or any other group.

June 5,1997 00:26

Look for the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand. Every major price move in the last two months has been preceded by announcements from Russia. Forget about production or stockpiles, they have been sellers at the highs - announce everything is OK, supplies will meet demands, and buyers at the lows - silence or cautious optimism. Who needs to produce palladium when you can pay for your low priced deliveries with massive profits from your shorts? This has been one of the most beautifully manipulated markets I have seen in the last decade. $250 palladium is a lock, probably by Friday. There will be Japanese traders jumping out of windows tonight when they find it next to impossible to cover shorts. Profit taking ( finally ) will not take it below $200. look for $275 before the month is out. For those of you worried about stockpiles, they are nearly nonexistent - 2 years max. Norilsk is operating at 25% tops. Unpaid miners dig with broken machinery. Western money is too spread out to even begin to rebuild infrastructure. Only those with hot blood and money to burn will play palladium. For those of you looking for a real play, look for platinum to repeat the 1986 - 1990 levels. The $420's will be a distant memory of bargain basement levels by August. Can platinum top $500 and stay there for awhile? Not the first time, nor the second, but it can and will. South Africa can smell the money and they will come out to play soon. $450 in June. Save this message and remember you were advised in advance.

June 5, 1997 01:48

Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enough gold in my time to think it deserves a descent Christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be respectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breathe life where little resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know there are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sickly yellow lass as we set heR gently on the straw. We will hear her stories and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.

We will sell her for her beauty,
We will sell her for her class,
We will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day true
we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?

I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium. I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are more likely to be found having lunch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ambassador. It's nice to know what they think, and our understanding of their thoughts carry less self service than any other who propose to love and cherish through good and bad.

I’m a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent. I count among my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last December when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollar for dollar and held, and held, and hold until today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to $100. It's still a play, but with some of the bottom gone, a slightly more meager one, albeit with acceptable returns. What the hell, the risk is almost nonexistent. I know I am a guest in this group, and as such I will comport myself with dignity and hope to have the same extended to me. Please do not confuse my enthusiasm and confidence for arrogance.. There comes a time in which our introduction to the world cements certain expectations. We will talk of those next time.


This is what I do for a living. Only metals, I love It. I have personally moved the market recently. 10,000 oz in a market as thin as palladium becomes a market of it’s own. Let me know if you need a no Real time, real world, no BS take on the market
June 5, 1997 02:51


It's simple. Gold will decline, silver will rise. Don't be shocked, it happens all the time. Especially with the twin specters of German & Swiss central banks wanting to re-value their gold reserves. This is all preparatory to some actual gold sales from these major countries this year. Look out for France and England. Forget about price ratios, forget about inflation or any other thing on the rest of the earth. If you believe that European central banks will forever cap gold this year, look to place some shorts. This voodoo accounting from the Swiss and Germans have cast a profane and ugly pall over the gold market. Yes! Silver will rise - gold will fall...... The best of both worlds..... show me the $.

Jun 5, 1997 03:08

There is no more a relationship between gold and the PGMs. One is trading with a dark cloud overhead with worries of convictions of high crimes and misdemeners. Silver is overdue for another .60 run. The PGMs are operating on their own fundamentals. Forget about gold and silver this time around. The current short squeeze in the PGMs is unprecedented, so we will continue to see lower gold and higher silver. You've got to believe!!!!! did you believe in peanut butter?

June 5, 1997 08:08

RE: Wall Street Journal palladium lease rates at 150%: As usual, if the WSJ prints it, it's old news. 150% was last week. 260% last night, who knows today? But what's in a lease rate when no one will lend? The mother of all short squeezes could only be in it's infancy. It will be brutal in New York today. Now we're having fun................

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:38
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Didn't really lose much. Just impatient. Just doing some trading. Made money on CCH a few weeks ago ( small movement back and forth ) . Stocks I bought now don't get the volume to quickly move the volume of shares. I rather not say the name of the company I own now. Just companies that I really don't mind being stuck with because I feel they are good value. Just being a little impatient because the stock below and around a buck and good make a quick percentage move. Don't worry, I'm not really losing my shirt. Just funnin' and impatient.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:40
Mooney @.TED>(@.TED):
Ted - You're TOO much. I told you that the Red Wings were going to win BEFORE I even knew if they were going to play N.Y. or Philly and BEFORE they had even totally polished off the reining champs. - And then you go and call me out with no evidence?

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:40
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
earl and/or eldo: If you wanted a list of shares that is on my bottom fishing hooks, I would post ( just feel weird posting only the few I own ) .

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:43
Mooney @.Ted>(@.Ted):
Can't even wait for reply! It was our 25th anniversary on June 3rd and the wife is yelling for me to come upstairs. Some things are more important than talking to my hockey buddies! :- )

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:47
Mike @>(@):
Do you believe that it is really administrative difficulties which hold up the Pt/Pa supplies from Russia? How difficult can it be to administer the sale of supplies from stockpiles? This situation bears close watching. If nothing comes forth from Russia, then buy SWC.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:47
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- Thanks for the postings and re-postings. I appreciate them as I'm sure many others do!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:53
Could it be that someone will show up at the table and buy all the Russians have? 500 - 600 million and it's theirs. Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war........

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:57
digger just@test>(just@test):
test. out.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:00
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- What do you figure that would do to the Sept contract? Would there even be a market anymore?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:09
DK going for broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(going for broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):

RJ How would you play the PGM market friday with $38,000. risk funds?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:11
D.A. - Savor the moment.
You are living a once in a lifetime dream right now.

July Silver closed today above its 18 day MA. Combine that with the
increase in the lease rates and I'm buying in the morning. It will be
my first silver contract. I guess you could call me a silver virgin
right now.

PL is a substitute for PA. Using a multiplier of 0.6 I think I rememeber
reading here. If the autos can't get PA - they will be buying PL. July PL
still has 3 to 4 weeks until 1st notice. I wonder how many of the paper
PA players jumped to PL last week? Figuring the demand would move to the
more liquid market. I'm learning more everyday - I love this game.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:13
Eldo - if I may be familiar - Just an idle speculation, that. In reply: Bend down, pick up a rock. Now throw it way up high. Wait. What happens? Life is self teaching. The best part about it is that I don't care which way it moves, as long as it moves. Therein lies the game and this one is afoot.............

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:16
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Time to buy some high caliber gold stocks. Hm Abx bmg Tvx, etc

Also, I mentioned a few days ago what I thought years ago
EMU is a dog that won't hunt. So it is dead. Buy gold accordingly.
Don't worry whether or not current prices are at the low.
How long of a base line do you need? We'll see 450 gold
in the not too distant future.

Time for my warm milk and beddy by.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:18
DK - check your mail............

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:24
to Ark to Ark>(to Ark):
hm and bmg high caliber?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- I thank you for the up/down scenario. I suppose it will remain true unless that rock gains orbital status and pretty much ignores gravity. A Sept contract of some year might trade again. I do agree that I don't care which way it goes. Just that it does!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:26
DK I quit>(I quit):
If Gold cannot move above $346.00 friday and stay the CBs have won the war. It's over and we are too lazy minded to figure it out. What does it take to admit we loss. How about all of our funds and our childrens.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:27
I tend to respond to specific questions by e-mail. Why bore the rest with our little lives? I'm public as thou also should be.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:36
DK - or may I call you D? I'm getting much too informal here.

If gold stumbles above $346 I recommend a small caliber bullet behind the left ear. The gold's ear, not yours. We should be well understood in this world. I have been accused, however, of torturing my metaphors.....It's a curse.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:41
tarnished @salvos from Dinghy>(@salvos from Dinghy):
Front: Sorry Front, Stevie's actually from Cranbrook BC, not Ottawa.
'night too Ted,and try picking a winning team for a change!
I think that slip in the ocean shrank more than just one organ!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:42
DK good night>(good night):
RJ You are my metor. I will slay the dragon tomarrow morning.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:45
DK cant spell>(cant spell):
RJ thats mentor. I need some sleep. good night all

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:53
Six times WW You haven't seen anything yet>(You haven't seen anything yet):

SO you think that WW was bad; just you wait HeHeHeHe.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 00:59
One final word as 4 am comes too soon. Backwardization means that there is no future contract. The world is spot and the word is cash. Too many people think the tail wags the dog. The futures are now and forever being driven by the spot markets. When the crunch is here and the need is now, who cares about September, or even tomorrow. There are many who would take issue with this. For those I reply: we travel in diferent worlds, who is to say what is real? When the showdown comes, you show me your contract and I'll show you my metal. We'll let God decide.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:03
WWWWWWWWWWWWW thirteenw's@www.www>(thirteenw's@www.www):
Gold will jump up $10 very soon.
Mark my wwwwwwords.
Nothing could be better than thirteen W's.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:04
Test @test>(@test):

This is probably a very dumb question, but if BT is
right, and gold has,in effect, been cornered ( as the
PA market may be ) what does that do to gold mining
stocks? Do they take off like a rocket also?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:09
Hey Ws,
The only way gold will jump $10 is with a knee in the ribs and a stomp on the foot. Or maybe I misunderstood soon... On a tectonic scale......

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:25
Has anyone looked at the prices recently? How is it that I reported these prices 2 1/2 hours ago? What's faster than a speeding Kitco? I do not blaspheme nor do I prophesy. This is my world. I live in it, I breathe it, and sometime I stub my toe on it.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:27
Goldbug 234513 HEY RJ>(HEY RJ):

HEY RJ: Your ( 23:15 ) describes your true talent.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:29
I have, in a fit of revenge, poured half a can Fresca ( remember Fresca? ) in my spell checker. It reads backwardation as backwardization. I am ashamed......

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:33
Hey goldbug,
You are a gentleman and I truly feel welcomed.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:39
Auric @To buy or not to buy>(@To buy or not to buy):

I must admit, I am probably in over my head here,
but it seems we have BT ( if he, they are real ) Ted
Butler, and Oracle on one side and RJ on the other.
Is this play entering its final act?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:41
Ron Overnight Move>(Overnight Move):
EBN spot gold now at 344.65 as Sydney and Hong Kong have bid up prices about a dollar since the New York close. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with COMEX gold. FWIW and based on my own very brief observations of the market, the initial action in New York often goes counter to any relatively large overnight move.

After reading Cherokee's post today, I'm going to call my broker tomorrow and place an open order bid of $50 for a Dec98 call with a $370 strike. Let's see just how low those crazy guys at Merrill Lynch'll go! Hope the order desk doesn't scream at me for wasting their time. If it gets filled I'll be kicking myself: I paid a LOT more for some Dec97 360s a while back. If I have to bid $60 later to get a fill, fine. It's the sort of UNBELIEVABLE price that could tempt a fellow to ante up his whole wad!

Re silver: What do traders here think of buying some Dec97 450 silver puts when the underlying goes to about $490 or so ( the puts will be real cheap then ) , and then waiting for the metal to fall back to the 460-465 area before going long? Is it a good way to minimize your insurance costs for going long? Is there a problem with liquidating both positions simultaneously if silver goes against you?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:49
RJ - Yes, I understand your point about backwardization. I see backwardization in every company that I work for. Sell the future for
the present. But it doesn't have to be that way. Locking in a price
for the future can be dealt with. If GM or Intel know they need PA in
Sept or Dec, not locking in a price today now is moranic! They are not
in the metal trading business.
Sadly, I have seen enough to know they will continue to speculate in
the markets and not lock in prices. No one will lose their job over a
few 100K or a million or two. Someday, 1 company will figure out what
business they are in and do it right.

Didn't Dell lose millions in currency trading a year or two ago and they
assemble personal computers. Go figure.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:55

Why do you think put options will be cheap after a 20/30 cent run up?
Volatility increases the price of options.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 01:58
I wish to be at odds with no one, nor to take sides. The market speaks the only truth. Ask yourselves: when was the last time you saw such real world, real time, detailed, and accurate information? I have read these postings for months and have seen a true desire to be informed. Some are put off by my style, yet we all have one. The world is a big place in which I have found comfort and friends. The world in which we find our common interest is a small one indeed. Discord costs money. Who among us will spare even the smallest pocket change for what gains us no good? I came only to share and am content to be judged by my peers.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:14
Auric @on the one hand..>(@on the one hand..):

RJ: I should have put that a little better. I am
basically a layman in here. I meant that two
opposite conclusions seem to have been reached with
respect to gold. I admit, you made an impressive
call. I am just trying to sort it out.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:15
Ron Silver>(Silver):
Kuston: Sentiment seems to be bullish right now. Nobody is expecting silver to go to 450. A couple of days ago when it was 469, Dec97 450 calls were trading at 12cents/oz. Now, at 479 they're about 10cents/oz. And two or three weeks ago, when silver hit 485, they were about 7cents/oz if I remember correctly. True about volatility, but sentiment seems to be overriding that maxim for the moment.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:23
Ron !>(!):
Dec97 450 calls=Dec97 450 puts . . . getting sleepy

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:28

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:28

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:38

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:55
Test @test>(@test):


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 02:59
John Disney>(
To All Those interested in Blyvoor/Dbn- deep.
Current prices provide graphic example of best entry
Durban Deep - DD trading 4.75$. Blyvoor trades 2.5$
You SHOULD get ( check your broker ) One DD for 1.67
( 5/3 ) blyvoor. 2.5 * 1.67 = 4.17$ rather than 4.75. Now
if you go via blyvoor, You will not get the half a
new DD option ( striking 60 expiry 2002 ) . However,
I doubt if you would get that anyway via ADR. They
normally auction these kinds of things in the worst
way possible for the shareholder, so I would attach
no value to the option piece. Thus enterring via
blyvoor has a 12% advantage over buying DD. But check
with your broker ( who may not know where South Africa is )
to make sure.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 03:29
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
EBN gold up 1.10, silver up.05

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 03:35

How far is spot Au from busting its 100 and 200 day M.A

A strong advance over this line could lead to the mother of all short covering rallies in gold..., as short after short tries to cover!

Go Gold, GOOO

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 04:08
John Disney: Thank you for info re Blyvoor/DD. It has been a great help. My broker confirmed your thought of 3 Blyvoor per ADR - but he had to call Bank of New York ( ? ) to do so as he was unable to find this anywhere in his system. He was unable to tell me when the merger is to be finalized, do you know?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 04:22
D.A. spilling.over>(spilling.over):

To quote my late night desk funds are buying silver like they've never seen it before. Its up about 20 cents from NY close. The sharks are smelling blood. Don't get eaten. Don't short anything thats is bright, lustrous, and a good conductor of heat and electricity.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 04:53
Gold @left out>(@left out):

Hey, fellas, take me along too!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 05:01
The Crusher @Going Nuts >(@Going Nuts ):

Pull those shorts down and squeeze this bear by the
balls until he squeals!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 06:47
Duncan Earl - 22:57>(Earl - 22:57):
T'would be nice indeed! BT's post gave me the 'courage' to make my post
- I am not in the same league as you chaps, but do know a little of the
South African situation. It would appear to me that the Central Banks are
in a no-lose situation with respect to their loans - presuming they lend
no more gold to hedging mines than they have in the ground.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 06:59
Mike Sheller @the feet of the Oracle>(@the feet of the Oracle):
Oracle of Alberta's 7 Threads at Gold-Eagle is a well-written, meaty summary of the swirling background events and theories concerning gold. Intuition tends to reinforce Oracle's general conclusion that it is likely that history and reality will prevail and gold will ultimately establish a revalued relationship to unchecked fractional reserve banking practices and unending credit creation. The entire financial structure of the West is now too vulnerable to a shock, which could come from any of many directions. Steady accumulation of bullion at these prices is still the only hedge the people have against potential catastrophe.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:02
Mike Sheller Egypt Me!>(Egypt Me!):
Will the recent gold find in Egypt replace the Bungle in the Jungle with Rands in the Sands? Or is this another Pyramid scheme? The whole thing Sphinx to me!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:06
panda @>(@):

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:10
panda @>(@):
More platinum news, most are short stories, but VERY good reads!:

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:13
panda @it.just.gets.better!>(@it.just.gets.better!):
I love the quotes, The platinum situation is analogous to a run on a bank.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:24
Auric @This is more like it>(@This is more like it):

Panda: I gave up reading Ludlum and Clancy since I
came to this site. It's like reading a damn spy
novel and looking at a crystal ball all at once.
Exciting stuff, eh?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:33
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
Morning Ted and the rest of you celebrating folks. It looks like we may be shaking loose in the metals doldrums. Not to bring WW back to the topic of welfare and its ephemeral fix the following actual items might pass along a chuckle on this Friday.

For those unfamiliar, Welfare payments are made in the US to
individuals and families with income below a certain level.
The following quotations are taken from actual letters received
by the Welfare Departmentin applications for support of
receiving payments.

1. I am forwarding my marriage certificate and 6 children.
I had seven but one died which was baptised on a half sheet
of paper.

2. I am writing the welfare department to say that my baby
was born two years old. When do I get my money?

3. Mrs. Jones has not had any clothes for two years and
has been visited regularly by the clergy.

4. I cannot get sick pay. I have six children can you tell me why?

5. I am glad to report that my husband who is missing is dead.

6. This is my eighth child. What are you going to do about it.

7. Please find for certain if my husband is dead. The man I am
now living with can't do anything until he knows.

8. I am very much annoyed to find out that you have branded my son
illiterate. This is a dirty lie as I was married a week before
he was born.

9. In answer to your letter, I have given birth to a son weighing
10 lbs. I hope this is satisfactory.

10. I am forwarding my marriage certificate and my 3 children
one of which is a mistake as you can see.

11. My husband got his project cut off about two weeks ago and I
haven't had any relief since.

12. Unless I get my husband's money pretty soon, I will be
forced to lead an immortal life.

13. You have my changed little boy to a girl, will this
make any difference?

14. I have no children yet, as my husband is a truck
driver and works night and day.

15. I want money as quick as I can get it. I have been in bed
with the doctor for two weeks and he doesn't do me any good.
If things don't improve, I will have to send for another doctor.

16. In accordance with your instructions, I have given birth to
twins in the enclosed envelope.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:40
panda @>(@):
Auric, Tort -- GOOD MORNING! Can't wait for the open in the PA / PL pits.:- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:41
Tortfeasor Bonus joke>(Bonus joke):
I'm think platinum might retract. Are anyof you going short on the possibility of a pullback in the market?

Here's a bonus joke I may have posted before but I thought it was amusing and reflects my thoughts on the subject matter.

Two men, sentenced to die in the electric chair on the same day,
were led down to the room in which they would their maker. The
priest had given them last rites, the formal speech had been
given by the warden, and a final prayer had been said among the
participants. The warden, turning to the first man, solemnly
asked, Son, do you have a last request?

To which the man replied, Yes sir, I do. I love dance music.
Could you please play the Macarena for me one last time?

Certainly, replied the warden. He turned to the other man and
asked, Well, what about you, son? What is your final request?

Please, said the condemned man, kill me first.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:44
Panda, this market is so fascinating that I am tempted to stay home today to see what happens. Most excitement I've had before this I spent the night in the emergency room. I'm thinking gold and silver up big time today and platinum maybe a pullback due to its meteoric rise the last couple of days.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:48
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- LOOK at my 7:06 and 7:10 posts, if you still want to go short..... People are scrambling to get supplies. I heard a news story on the radio early this A.M. Workers at the GM catalytic assembly plant my go on strike next week. Haven't heard the story again in the last two hours, but what a 'coincidence', eh? This stuff is getting very strange! Be careful out there folks! Remember the rumors of defaults out there also. Fact and fiction are getting hard to separate.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:50
Ok, its Friday night here in Japan, so I can stay up all night watching the action. Let's hope that all this attention to the rare one gets the other two moving as well.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:52
panda @info>(@info):
Tortfeasor -- For your review, the platinum contract, notice the daily limit and how it can change. If we go limit up today, Modays' new limit is $50.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:56
Mike Sheller Anecdotal Alert>(Anecdotal Alert):
Just to take a breather from Platinum & Palladium for a moment, my New York Stock Exchange Balcony Indicator has just flashed a cautionary signal for the stock market. The indicator works like this: In case you've never noticed ( in which case, where you been? ) when they do the closing prices on the business news on TV ( CNBC a perfect way to follow the indicator ) they invariably show somebody coming out on the balcony of the NYSE to gavel the proceedings to a halt for the day. When the market is down , or has been recently traumatized, the balcony is empty save for that lone official who appears momentarily, bangs the gavel, then quickly departs. Nobody wants to be associated with a losing string. When the market has had a good rise, or sets a record, more and more people join the official gavel-banger on that balcony. Everyone wants to be, or look like, or be associated with, a winner. This morning I counted 5 or 6 people on the balcony, all waving and smiling and looking like they didn't want to leave. This indicator is generally overbought when the balcony looks a lot like a New York City subway car at 5:30 pm. If the long bond can bust thru 113, there could be more to go on the upside for stocks. But the balcony is flashing a warning that it may only be a matter of weeks before some unsettling volatility emerges to begin defining the pattern that will top this market out. Granted this indicator is not as much fun as watching for extraordinarily short hemlines on ladies's skirts for a top, but as a leadsing indicator it does the anecdotal job nicely enuf.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 07:59
News you can Use Tokyo frm the Kitco news link>(Tokyo frm the Kitco news link):
Platinum hits $500 on panicky buy

By Rieko Suda, with a contribution from Polly Yam in Hong Kong, Bridge News

( Financial summary table )

By Bridge News

Tokyo--Jun 6--Spot platinum prices hit US $500.00 per ounce today in Asia's continued panicky trading on supply concerns in the physical
market, Asian traders said.

This is crazy, a Japanese dealer said. One Japanese trader raised his offer first in the morning to $500 and others followed suit.

This led to panicky buying by Japanese traders who raised their price indications further in limited trading to the day's high of $500 bids, which
immediately met a bout of selling by Asian traders, they said.

But the selling pressured spot platinum prices, quoted at $470.00- 500.00 in late Asian trading, leading the market to become quiet again, the
dealers said.

There was a lot of buying but few selling, one Hong Kong dealer said.

In the physical market, a major Japanese refiner was offering above 2,000 yen per gram, compared with the nearby contract settlement on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange of 1,660 yen per gram, up 76 yen from Thursday.

TOCOM ( Jun platinum ) is still cheaper than spot prices, another Japanese dealer said. But it should rise further to catch up with ( spot prices ) as
the expiry date approaches. TOCOM Jun platinum expires on Jun 25.

The Asian dealers were reluctant to make price directions for platinum.

Spot palladium prices also rose today in Asia, following platinum, but trading was less active, the dealers said.

Meanwhile, spot gold prices were slightly firmer, supported by platinum's strength, while trading was light, the dealers said. They said light buying
from European dealers firmed spot gold prices.

Gold doesn't have anything to offer ( as its own price factors ) to the market, a dealer said.

The dealers expect spot gold price will be supported at $340.50 later today in the overseas markets, with resistance at $347.00.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:01
panda @>(@):
Mike Sheller -- Non Farm Payrolls is out this morning at 8:30. Any surprises here will rock'n roll the equities and bonds. Imagine if the report is on the high side, but I'm sure the guys at labor did a good number on the numbers. :- )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:02
Ted, shoot the blackbird overhead with the band on its foot. I don't think I am going to short any of the metals today Panda after your comment. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:05
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
Tort: Upon announcing to my dear wife of 36 years that I plan to
retire at the end of this year, her reply was:

I married you for better or for worse, but not for lunch

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:15
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
6pak: THANK YOU for the excellent MAI links. Marvellous what gems you find on this site. Keep it up! Have been aware of MAI now for 6 months. It is diabolical! Everyone should study it in detail. The rest of you, stop this pre-market foreplay!!! It is too exciting!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:15
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- I'm not saying that I'm right or wrong, just that these are very thin markets. If some are of the mind that gold is being manipulated, then what about markets that are a fraction the size of the gold markets? Don't take what I'm saying the wrong way. It's just that I get very 'cautious' when things like this 'happen'. When I see headlines from Dow Jones saying that the forward markets have 'collapsed', I would rather err on the side of caution than profit. If it sounds like I've lost money once or twice, you're right. It's always nice to be on the right side of a big move in a market, but.... if you're not, and you get 'locked in'. OUCH! Very high risk.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:17
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Mornin Tort,Panda,Mike Sheller and all the rest of you bugs...Can feel the energy level risin on Kitco...EBN Gold up .55 and Silver up 8 cents..
15 minutes to the big one...the EMPLOYMENT REPORT...the estimate is fer 233,000 jobs to have been created...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:19
panda @coincidence?>(@coincidence?):
GM strike at catalytic converter plant?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:21
panda @>(@):
More confusion from Russia;

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:22
panda @>(@):
Good Morning TED! Now how do I cover myself both ways and make a killing in the process? ;- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:25
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: yer missile just landed and just remember it's all in the stars....and dart board...40 degrees and drizzlin here....but it's dry heat...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:28
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Panda: Take 100 sleepin pills and pull up the blankets...confusion in unusual!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:30
panda @comment>(@comment):
The market has an almost infinite amount of money compared to me. Therefore, the market is always right.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:32
panda @>(@):
TED -- on my third cup of coffee since 5:30, sleeping pills won't work anymore! :- ) )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:33
TED @employmentreport>(@employmentreport):
EMPLOYMENT REPORT: Rate=4.8% and 138,000 jobs created BUT April revised UP to 323,000 from 242,000...S+P futures turned around and is PLUNGIN...
down 3.90

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:35
panda @>(@):

Rock'n Roll time!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:36
The temptation to short platinum or palladium is not unlike the first time as children we all reached out to touch the hot stove, the results are still the same. look for reasonable dips to buy, ride the snake.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:36
TED @employmentreport>(@employmentreport):
Bonds down half a point....Panda: are ya shakin down 11 ticks

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:39
TED @mornincoffee>(@mornincoffee):
S+P futures down 2.0 ...make that .60...folks we have FAST market down 1.50....make up yer damn mind Mr.S+P!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:41
panda @>(@):
TED -- Need MORE JAVA! Bondo's oscillating, Spoo's going loopy, up, down, and all around.. Come to think of it, I must be oscillating! BBL.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:42
Scott ...!!!>(...!!!):
Can anyone give me a link to online qutoes you are quoting ?

pls pls pls ..... ;-|

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:43
TED @goldandsilver>(@goldandsilver):
Initial reaction is UP! EBN Gold up .70 and Silver up 12 cents...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:47
TED @fouthcup>(@fouthcup):
Panda: I hear ya bro...Iez shakin so bad the puter is rattlin+rollin..
hard to hit the right key...S+P futures DOWN 3.60...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:48
Auric @Wake up, gold!>(@Wake up, gold!):

Panda: May I recommend chocolate covered esspresso
beans. Will have you buzzing like Platinum!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:52
Scott .>(.):
Any kind person out there got a live gold spot price site for me to cry over!

thanking ya

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 08:54
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
You all don't really expect that unemployment report to have an affect on gold, do you? So far, it's been flatter than a run-over worm!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Scott -- The web resource link button has a DGSE site listed. I believe that is what you are looking for.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:04
junior reality check>(reality check):
I want to believe that this is the real thing too. I will be a believer when I see CDE & SSC going up . I will believe if XAU and gold shares have a good day. ( highs above 106 on XAU ) I will believe when the premiums on metals options are much higher. Until then, This is a trading rally. What is in place so far is that bonds and S & P probably are starting new moves down.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:12
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN Gold up only .30 and Silver up 7 cents...No of course the measly employment report could never have an effect on Gold...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:15
John Disney>(
For Aly
I dont know when merger takes place either. There must be shareholders meetings first to ratify the agreement I suppose.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:24
Lan Man Admin What?>(Admin What?):
Most interesting that the news wires always use the phrase Administrative Difficulties when writing about Russian delays in metal shipments. Yea, like in Administrative difficulties in paying the miners their back wages so the miners are having Administrative Difficulties in digging out any more metal.

FYI: Put in a limit order 2 days ago for PAASF @ 6.75, of course that order created a floor for the stock as well as silver, this has happened 2 times times this year, did catch 2 other moves though. I find that PAASF is a great indicator for the future price of silver.

JDisney: Thank you for keeping us all up-to-date on the happenings of DB-Deep/Blydy merger. Put in a limit order for BLYDY this a.m. @ 2.5625, lets see if that order does the same thing for the stock as well as the gold price in dollars!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:25
Scott @Brisbane,Australia>(@Brisbane,Australia):
Thanks : Eldorado

Tried your site is just what the doctor orderd!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:37
Scott @home>(@home):
XAU UP 1.02 ALREADY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW

its going to be a good day

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:39
Roebear @Cometcoaster>(@Cometcoaster):
Gold spot 346.20 at 9:36 AM EDT USA today, why no ( or is it HI HO SILVER AWAY ) silver spot. Geez, all this excitement and I'm up to my ears in work, oh well there's always work!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:40
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Last night I didn't get a chance to reply to your post:

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:43
Mooney ( @.Ted ) :

Can't even wait for reply! It was our 25th anniversary on June 3rd and the wife is yelling for me to come upstairs. Some things are more important than talking to my hockey buddies! :- )

I'm not sure, but I think I know what you did when you got called upstairs. I was celebrating the same thing on May 20 but when my wife yelled at me it was to come and help wash the dishes. Same at your house? I'm the BOSS at my house and my wife gives me full permission to say so!

TARNISHED: So if he was born in BC, that doesn't mean he calls it HOME. Ask him where he's from and he'll say OTTAWA ( actually Nepean, a suburb of Ottawa ) , cause that's where he grew up, went to school, played minor hockey and where his parents still live. He even has a summer hockey school here and comes back home every summer. I'll bet he hasn't seen BC except to play a one nighter there since he was 2. Tryin' to steal a guys hero/star is hangin' talk around these parts !!!! ( :- ) )

EARL: You are forgiven my son .... with Mooney leading you astray, you are absolved of any wrong-doing automatically. BTW, someone mentioned the other day about Labatt's beer in the states being sooooo good. BS. The real thing from Canada is 5% , the states stuff is less %. You pay more and get less! Now THAT's what I call a benefit of FREE-TRADE !!!!

Oh yea, that's liquid GOLD ! .....


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:40
Roebear @HersheyComet>(@HersheyComet):
Bart You are quick!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 09:46
Lan Man Ahh, Just Round Up!>(Ahh, Just Round Up!):
Ted ie Unemployment numbers: Revised upwards by 33% - pretty darn accurate numbers considering that they came from gov'ment bean counters! Wonder what would happen if we used the same math to figure out the taxes that the IRS says we owe on our income ( although my income is actually a trade of labor for pieces of paper ) ?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:07
TED @lanman>(@lanman):
Lan Man: Yeah, they were real close on that

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:12
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Front ( 9:40 ) Most Americans don't know there is differece between Canadian brewed in the states and in Canada cause most Americans know diddly about their neighbors...but they's still experts about beer..hahaha

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:17
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Unfortunately Ted, you may be correct. Every time we go to a bar in the states, we ask for water. It's usually imported from Canada ( purer or something ) and a lot stronger than any American beer. Whenever my friends come here, they're always smuggling cases back for their friends. Never heard of any Americans smuggling US beer into Canada though !!

Oh yea, liquid gold !!!!


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:18
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Mooney: When are ya goin to get a hockey prediction right?..and you never answered the question about who is goin to win the Calder Cup between Hersey and the Hamilton Bull dogs...Front: Thanks fer puttin Tarnished in his place...he haw...XAU up .99...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:18
POLARBEAR naval intelligence center>(naval intelligence center):
RANDGOLD Resources, the offshore arm of Randgold & Exploration, intends to raise between $120m and $160m to fund gold expansion projects when it lists on the London Stock Exchange later this month.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:19
Bob A dead>(dead):
SWC up a bit PDLCF off a bit,still very disapointing.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:23
bw Time to buy physicals:>(Time to buy physicals:):
While we all contemplate the fortunes we will make in futures, perhaps it is a good time to buy a few rolls of physical silver eagles. They are dirt cheap, its leverage you can live with, they never mature and once in hand you do not have to worry about anyone defaulting.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:40
Ted - I KNOW your hurt AND that you're joking with me. I would have been happy to see N.Y. win also, but it just wasn't in the cards this year. BTW - I freely admit that I know squat about the difference between the Bull and the chocolate!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:40
South African stocks Jump with Soaring Platinum Metal Prices. Review study: PLATINUM: The Rich Man's Gold, & charts of Impala & Rustenburg stocks - also Stillwater Mining at:

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:46
RJ - Welcome aboard! Really appreciate your joining us, seriously so don't take my comment the wrong way, but considering that Platinum had been surging for the last few days, ( to approximately, somewhere, maybe, around $430 yesterday ) , do you really think that you were making a bold prediction last night at 23:36 when you told us that: South Africa can
smell the money and they will come out to play soon. $450 in June.
Save this message and remember you were advised in advance.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:47
Gene @reality>(@reality):
Does anyone think that gold could follow platinum and palladium? Does anyone have certain knowledge of how much gold is stored in Government Vaults?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:58
Gene - The move in Platinum has been so spectacular tha I would not say that YES, it does appear that this will be the break that Gold needs to get out of the flat-line syndrome.
IN FACT - I WOULD SAY THAT RIGHT NOW IS THE TURNING POINT! WE SEEM TO BE HEADED UP AS WE SPEAK! ( Soon might have to post the Louis 16th comment ) .

Front - Same boat as me eh? Also - They never heard of the modern invention of automatic dishwashers in Calaboogie?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:59
JohnC @Brisbane,Australia>(@Brisbane,Australia):
Wheat doubled last year,
Coffee doubled this year,
Palladium doubled,
Platinum + $50 in a few days,
Silver up, down, up,
But Gold... to answer your question,
No Never Nyet,
Gold is never going up,
A Bear market forever.
This time it's different... It can't recover. ( sic ) .

Happy Trading
John from Down Under

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:19
cherokee @sweat-lodge>(@sweat-lodge):
what do you expect? ask your broker an honest question ( re:?dec'98 gold-370 strike ) and what do you get? a wrong answer.
the $60.00 price was wrong. after the eject button was hit
sending that e-message, i had a sinking feeling that there
was something smelly. it was 60 pts x 10.--- for $600.00 each!
listen to your broker and get burned every-time!
sorry for incorrect post on that price. think!; )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:24
vronsky TED BUTLER LOGIC APPLIED to Platinum & Palladium>(TED BUTLER LOGIC APPLIED to Platinum & Palladium):
Following is the reality of what Ted Butler indicated in his letter to venerable Alan Greenspan and the illustrious Robert Rubin. Butler’s astute call is beginning in the Platinum and Palladium markets - which historically have lead the rest of the precious metals markets. However, the “Doubting Thomases” will say, “But world banks have 33,000 tonnes of gold that may be used to quell any rising wave of noble metal prices.” IMO that is an illusory perception of reality. The Fed has NOT SOLD one ounce its gold hoard in over 20 years. It would be political suicide for the Fed to start divesting the nation’s gold stash as cyclic market forces begin to push all precious metals prices higher. Furthermore, any overt attempt by Central Banks to dump bullion on the market would be interpreted as inherent currency weakness of the selling country. This would only add fuel to the fire, causing the precious metals price rise to accelerate.

In light of the spectacular rise of Platinum and Palladium in recent days, and RELATED news out of Switzerland below, a review of Ted Butler’s analysis would provide one with clear vision of what is to come. Ted Butler’s brilliant analysis ( i.e. letter to Greenspan and Rubin ) may be seen in its entirety at:

Friday June 6 3:34 AM EDT

Gold firms in early Europe, PGMs surge further

ZURICH, June 6 ( Reuter ) - Gold was only slightly firmer in early European trade on Friday, overshadowed by further spectacular gains in platinum group metals ( PGMs ) .

Palladium jumped to $235.00/$245.00 versus $205.00/$215.00. On Thursday in London it was fixed at $235.00 after hitting 17-year highs on the spot market.

Platinum meanwhile surged to $480.00/$500.00 versus $443.00/$444.00. Early on Friday in the Far East and Australia it touched levels as high as $500.

On a monthly chart, it was the highest level for platinum since August 1990 but one trader at a Swiss bank in the Far East said spreads were wide, and deals small.

“We are seeing $30 spreads on very small deals,” he said.

Late Thursday in London, Trevor Pitts, chairman of the London Platinum and Palladium Market Association said after a meeting of its 10 members, plus the three Zurich-based clearing members, that there had been no defaults in the market.

As business began in Zurich, traders said the market remained nervous.

“There is simply no liquidity. Everybody is trying to buy, but no one can offer anything,” said one trader.

The Swiss-based trader said also that the market remained nervous about the possibility of a default, despite Thursday's statement.

“The whole trade is built on trust that someone can deliver. If one looks to see how much volume is traded, it is larger than the physical supply,” he said, adding that under normal conditions this posed no problem.

But in the case of a possible default, he said the situation would be analogous “to a run on the bank.”


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:26
Bob A my opinion>(my opinion):
South africa will never try to take undue advantage of the plat, pallad situation. They didn't do it back in late 79 early 80's and they won'd do it now. They don't want a substitute for PGM's.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:28
bob wow@holycow>(wow@holycow):
You guys won't believe this: I told my 24 yr old broker that platinum traded at $500 in Tokyo trading. His response was, whats platinum?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:41
DK Plabug>(Plabug):

I need long term charts on the PGM's. Does anyone have a site?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:44
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
The major August gold trend line resistance comes thru at 348.2. Therefore, I expect major selling should it get there. On the other hand, SHOULD it get above there, possibilities open up for the upside! Draw your own lines and see if they don't agree!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:46
bob bob@bob>(bob@bob):
To All metals shorts:

SAVE YOURSELVES!!!!!!! I would sugest that you sort of extract yourselves from your PGM short positions by gong long the Gold and silver markets. BUT, make sure you do it before anyone else does.

Sooner or later love is going to get ya sooner or later love is goning to get you ; love is going to win.

Sleep tight and don't let those gold bugs bite.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:48
MoreGold @wet behind the ears>(@wet behind the ears):
bob: Ask your 24 year old broker what a bear market is.
I bet you 10 shares of Bre-x that he doesn't know.
This is basically why stocks are still going up, and non
of the masses have caught on to Gold --- YET.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:52
vronsky wow@holycow>(wow@holycow):
Ref: I wonder how many people really know what qualifications a person is required to have in order to be licensed by the NASD as a BROKER? That is what training is necessary to adequately prepare a person to MANAGE YOUR MONEY? Well, it is pathetically little: a high school education, A One Month Training Course, and a qualifying multiple choice exam. About the exam: more than 75% deals with the Rules & Regulations of the NASD & SEC. ONLY ABOUT 10% DEALS WITH THE NITTY-GRITTY of what the investment markets are really all about.

Therefore, it does NOT SURPRISE ME IN THE LEAST, that the typical 24-YEAR OLD WALL STREET BROKER asks, What is platinum?!! I also wonder if the word BROKER has something to do with how many investors end up by listening to spiels of WAll Street?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:54
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Just noticed that the XOI ( Oil index ) had jumped about 5.00 basis points in about 2 minutes. Since there could be pressure here helping Gold stuff, does anyone have anything about why the Oils exploded?

Mooney: Wanted to get one but she said if I did she'd have nothing to grouch about! Go figure you'd not spell the hometown right ( :- ) )


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:55
Bob @....another Bob ?!>(@....another Bob ?!):
Bob: We have an ad hoc protocal on Kitco. The first user of Bob gets to keep it until otherwise advised. As you may agree, it gets confusing when more than one personality uses the same posting name. Agree ?

Inflation obituary:


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 11:56
oldhand @cold fusion?>(@cold fusion?):
Could it be that the extraordinary strength in PGMs is cold fusion revisited? Just a thought. Comments?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:09
John W. silver options>(silver options):
Dear friends,
I'm looking to buy a silver futures option leap with a strike price around $7. Something like a Dec98 silver option, strike $7. Where can I get quotes on silver futures options this far out? What would the symbol be? And about how much would it cost?

My broker doesn't do futures options and he's the only broker I trust. So I want to make sure I know what I'm asking for before I ask a different broker.


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:24
Novice @blow breezes blow..>(@blow breezes blow..):
SWC fans: A few ripples finally starting to appear over the surface of Stillwater...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:28
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) @burning Midnight Oil>(@burning Midnight Oil):
Surely the Dow Jones Industrials Index is indicating MADNESS? How can the low employment figures be good? Surely it is a soon sign of wage inflation?, not profitability... DJIND 7405 a record

``The bond market has decided that the employment data is positive,'' said Douglas Cliggott, U.S. equity strategist at JP Morgain. ``Bonds have surged in the last half hour or so and equities have followed right along in their path.'' The rebound in the Treasury bond market was also attributed to some short-covering. The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell in May to 4.8 percent, but with ONLY 138,000 new jobs added. ( VERY LOW!!! )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:34
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
SWC finally moving up 9.9% pdlcf down on the day so far.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:40
JohnC @Silver Options>(@Silver Options):
John W
I hope the following site might help you in your search for SI option quotes.
The info is updated after the close of trading each day.

Trade options with care. If you buy options, you can lose ALL your premium plus your transaction costs. If you sell options, you can lose spectacular sums of money in hours.
But, as a speculative instrument, their convexity under fast moving markets often can double or triple their value in days. If you read through the postings, you will note that DA refers to this in relation to his Platinum option position.

Please be careful out there
JohnC Brisbane

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:46
D.A. another.war>(another.war):

I mentioned last night that the silver market was being bought heavily by some funds to the tune of around 30MM oz. Apparently there is a big OTC option struck at $5.00 which expires in a few days. The writers want to hold silver down and the buyers want to bid it up. After an early foray by the funds the writers have struck back. Will the funds try again? Will they be successful ?
Stay tuned, the battle has been joined.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:56
bw A conversation with Boskin:>(A conversation with Boskin:):
Mr. Boskin I would like to extend your famous steak argument on the cpi overstating inflation. Very well. You state that if steak becomes too expensive consumers will switch to the less expensive chicken. This is correct. Now what happens should chicken increase in price by say 10%? Well I suppose they could switch to soybean meal. And should it rise in price also? Bread? And if the price of bread should rise? Day old Bread? Do you mean to tell me that consumers eating day old bread instead of steak will hold down inflation? This is correct.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:57
JOHN W.......Go to this site for silver options prices.....Use the phone #### at the site and call Bernie. Give him a chance to handle your purchase....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:59
10 reasons why the barbaric metal is dead:
1. Unlimited supply because the stockpiles will never deplete.
2. CB'S supplies
3. No currency based on gold
4. Major retail buyers uneducated and poor ( asia,middle east )
5. Cannot rally with PGM'S
6. Governments want low price = low inflation
7. Bre-x and friends
8. arizona to produce gold from sand
9. No news moves gold price
10.Negitive perception ( hitler/jews, bre-x, dooms day investment, storage, lousy returns )

Can you think of any more reasons? I bet you can if you are honest and try real hard! Come on give it a try, you might like it. What do you have to lose? MONEY

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 12:59
panda @>(@):
Front -- Just a thought, isn't platinum used in the oil indutry for catalytic reactions in the refining process? If there is a supply 'shortage' ( pt pa that is ) , oil production goes down, demand prices Sorry, there's that twilight zone thinking again....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:30
panda @>(@):
Front -- Oil story;

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:37
Mike Sheller Miso for Lunch>(Miso for Lunch):
bw: There was an old song/chant I heard when I was a kid - You get no bread with one meatball. Re: Boskin - As I'm sure you already know, don't waste too much time betting your bread on what meatballs have to say.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:41
Panda, Front and ALL - Platinum is used as catalyst in many industrial processes. A MAJOR new one ( IMO ) coming on stream is in the manufacture of fuel cell technology such as that being developed by Ballard Power of Vancouver ( don't laugh - Mercedes Benz just bought up 25% of the company for 500 million ) . Recently I e-mailed a few friends that that stock is on the cutting edge and may be a good buy ( month and half ago ) at $35. Yesterday it closed at $42-5/8 ( I believe ) The reason I didn't mention it here was that it is not a mining co. but since Platinum is involved I guess it's O.K.!
Front - Sorry - was in a hurry and couldn't find my map! ( Also Sorry about the wife needing something to complain about - But I guess that is a round-about compliment from her as it indicates that you are perfect in every other way! )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:41
Mike Sheller la vida es suena>(la vida es suena):
vronsky: I think las lagrimas del luna son ( how you say ) welling up. Where is Bernatz now that I need him? Anyone short silver now is gonna be cryin' pretty soon.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:47
ALL....If any of you have not taken the opportunity to brouse the links page that Bart has set up, you should do so. It has some great sites..

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:49
newkid ohio>(ohio):
to all
i've been reading your postings for sometime now ( including Gold Eage ) .
prior to Nixon getting us off the gold standard, if one wanted gold, one needed to exchange it for his labor or real goods. since 71 or 73 all one needs to do is simply exchange pieces of paper and a promise to pay for it in the future. ( thats what fiat currencies are ) . following this i can get gold and have future tax payers pay for it? im buying!!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 13:49
newkid ohio>(ohio):
to all
i've been reading your postings for sometime now ( including Gold Eage ) .
prior to Nixon getting us off the gold standard, if one wanted gold, one needed to exchange it for his labor or real goods. since 71 or 73 all one needs to do is simply exchange pieces of paper and a promise to pay for it in the future. ( thats what fiat currencies are ) . following this i can get gold and have future tax payers pay for it? im buying!!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:09
Strad Master Riding the snake>(Riding the snake):
RJ: Re your 8:26 post. What would you gustimate is a reasonable dip? Thanks for your wise posts.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:13
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Looks like it's shaping up to be another of 'those' closes today in the gold! Will it be up or will it be down? Which way will she break?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:18
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Panda & Mooney:

Panda: Thanks so much for the link. Seems strange what they said there though in that the oversupply in oils supplies was much of what brought the price down from $22 to $19+ .... Now they say it's because it won't drop to $15 ? What am I missing here ? Is there supply or not ? Guess time will tell but I like your theory a lot !!!

Mooney: Thanks for the compliment but I can assure you that's NOT what she meant! After 25, I'm just untrainable any more haha BTW, The checks in the mail !!


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:19
Bob A guru>(guru):
Both swc and pdlf up. With a little luck Barrons will have a guru telling us to buy plat stocks. A perfect time to exit early next week

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:34
To Bear (@)>((@)):
That is why gold is the ultimate contrarian play. Time to sell when it rises and the blowholes on TV are recommended it!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:38
nailz Question for Mike Sheller>(Question for Mike Sheller):
MIKE SHELLER.....Have you updated the astroforcast for silver What does it say

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:40
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Well, I guess the direction got answered!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:41
MoreGold @MR. BEAR>(@MR. BEAR):
Most of us have heard those arguments ad nausium, and they don't wash with us.
You actually listed one which is VERY bullish for Gold - the Bre-x washout. The markets had already discounted Bre-x comming on line with
71 to 200 million ounces of Gold. This False Gold then evaporated into thin air. This is bullish not bearish.
I expect much more False Gold will evaporate into thin air in the future.
Meanwhile, we NEED you guys ( Merril Lynch, shorts ) to keep writing us these damn cheap calls.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:46
show me @missouri>(@missouri):
MR BEAR: Read your 10 good reasons why gold is a negitive now give me 1 good reason why paper is better?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:47
Short Bull @ Out of my XAU yesterday, missing .38 gain>(@ Out of my XAU yesterday, missing .38 gain):
With the DOW up over 120, the XAU has struggled today to stay afloat.
I mention the DOW because the XAU has been tracking the DOW better than
the metals. I predicted metals up just one more day ( today ) and with the
weak closes in gold and silver toward their lower ranges, that prediction
looks pretty safe. I am happy to be out of the XAU... ( no thanks Mr. Cole ) .
Mr. Cole believes I will miss the big move in the XAU because I trade too
much. Because I trade in and out so much I won't be carrying losses when
we ultimately bottom. I will be smart enough to recognize when the
bottom hits surely, and I will stay in when the XAU gives me reason to.
So far it has not. If we drop a little next week I will be getting
back into the XAU.

The Bradley point on Monday is looking more and more like a high rather
than a low....enjoy the rally in the DOW as long as it lasts because
today or Monday could very well be a significant high ( famous last words ) .
I know I am not smart enough to predict a major high in the markets, but
Mr. Rosen and several cycle analysts are...and they have missed the last
few calls but it looks more and more like they got this one right. The
NASDAQ is quite weak looking on this rally and I don't feel the NASDAQ
100 will trade much above 950 on this move, which is about 6 points higher
than we are this moment. Well, we will see. Anyone I am out of all
futures positions and mutual funds and I made could be a lot
worse. I am more convinced with this rally today that the markets are
in trouble, than if we had sold off. The only thing that I feel can save
the DOW is for it to sell off on the close. Because this is likely a
major high, it will likely rally on the close and become more and more
overextended.....which is what tops are made of.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 14:47
show me @missouri>(@missouri):
MR BEAR: Read your 10 good reasons why gold is a negitive now give me 1 good reason why paper is better?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:04
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Goldielocks and the three bears

1. 16 mo. baby bear $415.00 to $337.00

2. Almost 10 year moma bear $502.75 to $326.10

3. 17 year papa bear $850.00 to 284.25

#1 baby bear needs a test of $337.00 only -$6.00 or 2%

#2 moma bear needs a test of $326.10 just -$17.00 or %5

#3 papa bear needs a test of $284.25 - $60.00 or 17%

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:07
panda @>(@):
Thirty year bond index is pricing in nirvana. On the other hand, it is getting closer to completing the triangle. May be we'll post a graphic later...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:12
EARLDORADO @twoheadedmonster>(@twoheadedmonster):
I am Earlorado and I like to hear myself drone on and on and on...IMHO my posts are the best! IMHO the rest of you don't have much to say but I will suffer through your posts just so I can read by own brillant thoughts.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:12
Auric @Its in the bag>(@Its in the bag):

Mr. Bear: Sure hope you have on a protective cup
under those shorts

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:13
Showing You>(You):
How about $850 for 1 oz of gold now worth about $350 and $850 $DOW now worth about $3000 as has been said here.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:22
tarnished @Dinghy...INCOMMING!!>(@Dinghy...INCOMMING!!):
Front: Re: Stevie Y, OK! OK! Minor technicallity!
Although citizenship is ascribed to place of birth...I know I'm grasping!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:24
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Is Kitco a little slooooow fer anyone else...XAU up .37 and DOW only up 127....yawn...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:29
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Tarnished: Hey dude, what's yer thoughts about the new kid on the block..
..hahaha..DOW up 130...Hi Tort: Just noticed you in me mail box and am off ta read me mail...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:36
nailz HEY TED !!!!>(HEY TED !!!!):
TED....Why on earth would a man of your means be out in the woods with a chainsaw? Is it because where you live you can't hire anybody to work

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:41
Jack Interesting Times>(Interesting Times):

Row developing between Underwritters and McWatter's
concerning the Sigma and Kiena Reserves. Bre-x has maked
everyone very careful. Story in Financial Post.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:42
Preacher Bear Patrol>(Bear Patrol):
With all this talk of testing the Bears, maybe we should test Mr. Bear for rabies? He’s talking drivel. His reason # 6. Governments want low price = low inflation contradicts his arguments that gold is dead. Come back after you get some shots and can make some sense.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:43
Jack Interesting Times>(Interesting Times):

Rowe developing between Underwritters and McWatter's
concerning the Sigma and Kiena Reserves. Bre-x has made
everyone very careful. Story in Financial Post.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:43
tarnished @Dinghy makin waves>(@Dinghy makin waves):
TED: I'm still a doctor!
How'bout that BKX, little piggy's gettin fat!
Still hangin on ABX to get a move-on.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:45
George S. Cole bulls and bears>(bulls and bears):
Some of us on this thread doubted this was the beginning of a big gold runnup, and today's weak close supports that viewpoint. I still find the action encouraging, because it reinforces my conviction that the gold complex is basing for a big move up this summer. I suspect we will stay in the $340-345 range ( spot ) for the next month or two, and then a big upside breakout.

When gold does finally enter its next bull phase, rest assured that it will NOT occur on a 130 point up Dow day. Much more likely on a minus 200 or 300 point Dow day. Also, just as gold badly lagged the whites over the past few days, the whites will badly lag when the yellow stuff takes off

Stock market in its final blowoff phase and Dow could approach 8000 before this summer's final top. More upside potential in small caps at this phase of the cycle, despite today's under performance.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:46
Bob @...Platinum price managed by Russians>(@...Platinum price managed by Russians):
Dose anyone here believe we actually have a real shortage in platinum ?
The Platinum Paper Market is being manipulated by the Russians to their advantage. The last story I read in this matter was that Russian platimum was authorized to ship for June - as expected - but the export permit needed to be signed by a government official. Interesting ? If the Russians could only manipulate the gold market in their ( our ) favour we would all be rich in no time !

Anyone have a guess when the platimum paper market will crash ? What price ?


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:47
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz ( 15:36 ) I like CHAINSAWIN things!...but yer right probably couldn't find anyone to do the work in this land of fat lazy people who think the NDP is great...Big waves are rollin in off the ocean but Scaterie still bekons...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 15:51
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Tarnished: What ya laughing at dude...Thought it up while runnin the chainsaw...hahaha...Dow up 130...wonder if that insignificant employment report had anything to do with the big gain in the market...probably not cause it don't have no effect on it bro...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:05
TED.....I feel SCATERIE beckoning me now...with promises of great wealth produced by the finding of much treasure....Then on to OAK to multiply that wealth...Then back to KITCO and corner the gold market !!!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:06
GFD Congratulations>(Congratulations):
DA: That palladium play of yours looks to be a home run! Congratulations!! It's great to see a play like that work out, even if it is from the sidelines. Especially for poor old bugs watching squashed worms!!

One question though. I would expect selling in other markets to cover losses in palladium and platinum. I am not seeing it in this case. Is it because the shorts are mostly industrial traders and don't cover this way or am I not looking in the right place?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:10
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
Nailz: A foggy mist now surrounds Scaterie Island makin it look even more mysterious and maybe even a little OMINOUS...How much do metal detectors cost?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:10
George S. Cole, Internet’s Resident Economist: With Dow up 123 ( 7428 ) his 8000 call appears certain - He also anticipates start of secular gold bull in same period. See Cole’s Market Insights:

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:13
panda @>(@):
Read the BONDS section:

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:15
panda @>(@):
Bart -- I like the new header!!!!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:33
Bernatz de ventadorm alchemist's valley@les pyranees>(alchemist's valley@les pyranees):
Mes Amis
Pardonez moi so much for zee long seelance. Ah have
been zo buzy on zee gold from zee infected dirt machine.
But ah had zee grande technical probleme. Ah tried to
juice up ( as you say ) zee process wiz some Black Plague
zherms zat Ah had kept in a zhar from when ah was
a keed in zee so called dark ages. Sadly all my staff
zey DIE by dam, poor souls, and ah had to leave zat
village rather quickly.
Now a new projzect - Zee Platinium from zee gold - zis
should not be so tough - Im off to see zee wizards zee
wonderful wizards of zee pyranees.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:47
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Preacher: #6 Governments want low price = low inflation

The govenment would like to see gold at it's real value ( cost of copper ) and once and for all killing the myth that the barbaric relic of years gone by is somehow a hedge against inflation. If gold was ever to raise its ugly head as a safe haven against the evils of fiat currency the governments of the world would sell at a huge loss to stiffle the reasugance. But they do'nt have too, they will sell very slowly and reap big profits while keeping the fiat currency strong. Do you believe the EMU would let gold devalue the currency. The CB's will and are selling all the gold in thier valuts now. They know the future of this barbaric metal is gone. If the CB's had no gold who would want it?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 16:57
Bernatz: It is a delight to return to Kitco for a review of the day's gossip and find your comments on the top of the list. Sorry to hear about the temporary setback in your pursuit of riches from common dirt. The loss of a few is hardly worth mention. That a few losses must be incurred in the process is of no matter. There will be others to replace them and in due course it will all be forgotten. Indeed, given your high probability for ultimate success, when it does occur, these same ungrateful people will consider it an honor to have given some of their own in such a noble cause. For the moment, it is no small source of comfort to know that you were able to take flight and avoid any serious unpleasantness over such a trifle. You are handling it in such a 'continental' manner. A credit to your forebears. Please keep us appraised of your progress that we may look forward to the moment when stock will be issued and cries of fraud may begin.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:11
RJ: If you are lurking today, I would like to comment on the thread that seemed to be developing late last nite. That is that for many of us, the PM's are not our professional racket. Probably never will be. Our purse is thin and our skills as well.

By your own account, you move in a world that is alien to our own and to read about it may be a cause for some discomfort. Primarily because, those who do know what they are about and how to do and do it well are also proud of that fact and have no desire to 'hide their light under a bushel'. ..... In short, please continue to post your opinion and I will learn to deal with the rest. There are many things to learn from this site. Forebearance not the least.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:14
Jack All over the place>(All over the place):

Mr. Bear: If the government had no gold, I'd want it.
Mooney: ( 13:14 ) These new methods of propelling our bombs
drive me nuts, they have so many possibilities out there.
How about Zinc-Air modules ready to use by large fleets
to power vehicles. Electro Fuel Corp. ( EFCX ) has a series
of test going in Germany, Italy and the Scandanavian
countries that look promising. Soon they will be testing
at a location near you or us.
Lan Man: ( 09:46 ) Government statistics and Wall Street
projections are fabricated to keep the market up and the
gold bugs unhappy. They want everybody else to Don't
worry, be happy - this until they decide to lower the
boom for the intro of the Pheonix.
Duncan: ( 22:57 ) No one really knows how much gold they
( mining Cos. ) have in the ground until it comes out
profitably. Sometimes they catch the problem early -that
to say after some investors get screwed. Say Brex-x,
then Delgra___, then ________?. They will keep
coming. Not anything new, just a part of the scene.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:23
Tort: Your 7:33 was absolutely the best to date. Who said there is no humor in poverty?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:31
Tortfeasor Friday afternoon joke>(Friday afternoon joke):
Here's a little story for Ted and his sea going ilk.

Once upon a time there was a famous sea captain. This captain was very successful at what he did; for years he guided merchant ships all over the world. Never did stormy seas or pirates get the best of him. He was admired by his crew and fellow captains.

However, there was one thing different about this captain. Every morning he went through a strange ritual. He would lock himself in his captain's quarters and open a small safe. In the safe was an envelope with a piece of paper inside. He would stare at the paper for a minute, then lock it back up. After, he would go about his daily duties.

For years this went on, and his crew became very curious. Was it a treasure map? Was it a letter from a long lost love? Everyone speculated about the contents of the strange envelope.

One day the captain died at sea. After laying the captain's body to rest, the first mate led the entire crew into the captains quarters. He opened the safe, got the envolope, opened it and...

The first mate turned pale and showed the paper to the others. Four words were on the paper, two on two lines:

``Port Left, Starboard Right''

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:49
GFD The next shoe>(The next shoe):
DA: Do you have any feel for where the next ( if any ) market to follow Pa/Pt will be That is, should be be playing silver or should we be playing gold Thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:50
bw Greenspan's nightmare: the big one II>(Greenspan's nightmare: the big one II):
Greenspan is finishing his third gin and water, less water with each drink. They are testing us as never before, he thinks. In the last four hours he had been forced to create out of thin air, almost one trillion dollars in electronic cash. He has been authorized to create an unlimited amount, whatever it takes. Still something is different this time. Always before a few hundred billion would crush demand. This time it was only satisfying it, and only for minutes. No, the real problem was not the amount of cash he had to create. On his order, the computer would create ten, one hundred, one thousand trillion dollars in milliseconds. The problem was gold. The price of gold had trippled in the last five hours and almost no volume had been traded. The only offers were from the IMF. The only reason the IMF was offering a few ounces every ten minutes or so, was so they could say gold was still trading. Silver was not trading as the IMF had no silver stocks. As fast as he was creating the cash, the cash was attempting to flow into things. And the cash was trying to become gold in the worst way. If only I could create the damn gold, he thinks.

The New York markets start to open soon. The phone rings once more, his monitor tells him its Michel. Michel go the hell away. I wish I could Alan. Will this day ever end? How much do you want now? Alan as you know cash alone will not work this time. We in Europe have a plan and I want to run it by you. You don't have to Michel. Let me guess, this time you want both gold and cash, correct? Correct Alan. We need two hundred million ounces of gold from you along with two and a half trillion of your good old usa dollars. We will kick in another two hundred million ounces of gold and perhaps we can crush this thing real well. Two hundred million, are you crazy? Michel, you know damn well we don't have that much gold! Alan neither do we. Just promise to deliver it! All we need to do is cause the overdue reaction, you can cover, make some money to boot and deliver nothing. I'll have to go upstairs on this Michel. Don't be too long Alan, we may only have a couple of hours, we have to get this thing under control before your stock markets open.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 17:51
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
TO WONDERING: When the lease rates are higher than the prime lending rate ( backwardation ) it greatly encourages the dealers or anyone else carrying inventory to sell into the market today, since they can contract to buy it back cheaper at a later date.

It means an increased cost to carry inventory which means higher surcharges on PGM products. In fact we just received notice from our suppliers beginning with the familiar As you may already be aware....

The sqeeze is on Pt and Pd because of a ( perceived? ) physical shortage. This isn't the case with gold and silver and so I wouldn't expect the lease rates to coattail the PGMs. I can't tell you if the price will move up in sympathy because if I did then everybody would know, and then it wouldn't be interesting talking about it, and then nobody would come back to our website, and then.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:01
Bart Kitner>(
PS: We put somthing from today's news wire at http:///news.platinum.html concerning the Russian situation. Although the article says that there are no efficient substitutes for palladium in automotive catalysts, rhodium was being widely used before palladium replaced much of the rhodium based catalytic converters.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:20
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree. I'm thinking that it may not skyrocket. I'm thinking that it might rise slowly like a feather taken every higher by a breeze.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:25
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Good one...I needed that!...Got yer missive and I'll do me best..

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:26
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
I'm quite happy that you and so many others are thinking like that. Historically such total bearishness by so many often preceeds a run-up, such as total bullishness in the stock market may preceed a bear market. In the stock market now good news is taken as good news, bad news is taken as good news, and if there is no significant news someone makes up a bullish story. The herd is running all together; they may run off a cliff all together.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:32
NJ long bond>(long bond):
Bank of China is the rumored buyer in this story.

Friday June 6 2:26 PM EDT

US T-bond yield drops to 6.80 pct, shorts cover

NEW YORK, June 6 ( Reuter ) - The benchmark U.S. Treasury 30-year bond yield fell to 6.80 percent in afternoon trade on Friday, its lowest level in more than three months.

Short-covering, foreign buying and technical factors boosted the 30-year bond price more than a full point as its yield dropped to 6.80 percent, the lowest level since the close on February 28, traders

At the shorter end of the maturity curve, the two-year Treasury note yield slipped to 6.13 percent, its lowest level since its close at 6.11 percent on March 12.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:43
Earl Jr. @goldendreams>(@goldendreams):
IMHO the late day sell-off in Gold-XAU does not and I emphasize does not bode well for the direction of gold in the long to intermediate term if the folowing considerations are taking into consideration...Bla...bla...
yackity yack excetera.IMHO ODLE and I are the only voices or reason in the wilderness of AU investing when one takes stock of the amount of witty comments needed to show our total superiority to the rest of you peons.IMHO bla bla bla droning on and on and on.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:45
MoreGold @EMU Blues >(@EMU Blues ):
MR.BEAR and others: The EMU is in bigger trouble than ever.
Read the article in todays Globe and Mail. Helmut Khol is the only strong backer remaining and he may be gone next year. Large majority of Germans don't want it. France and Britain want it watered down, and others want it delayed. Khol has said if it is delayed it will never happen.
If it's watered down, the Euro will be a weak currency. HeHeHe - what better news for Gold than a weak European currency.
Nightly Business Report - just this minute - reports a rumour that the EMU will be delayed - what timing?
This is all bullish news for Gold.
Those counting on the EMU and a strong Euro will be sorely disappointed.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 18:48
panda @>(@):
Bart -- Thanks for the news story. I think I hear a, In order to prevent disorderly market conditions from affecting..., speech coming on from somebody. ;- )

Earl Jr. -- Huh?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:08
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Finally some bullish news:

My sence of the sell off on the Close was that most traders who had bought over the past two days simply did not want to go home long over a weekend in case something happened with the platinum situation. So since MOST traders are wrong expect Gold to open up higher on Monday. Of course the Platinum situation could get worked out this weekend I doupt it will releave the situation by Monday.

Although the closer we get to $350 ( Aug ) the better the shorting opportunity will be!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:09
TED @longbond>(@longbond):
What a move in the long bond bringing the yield all the way down to 6.78%
Hi Panda...nother good day fer

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:10
bw: ref your Greenspan's nightmare: the big one II ) - very well written with financial emotion literally oozing from each line. In addition to myself, there are others here who would like to see more of your rhetoric.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:11
Wondering w@W>(w@W):
Hello Bart:
But Bart, the firms that sell the PGM metals short also sell gold and silver. If some of these firms fail and default on their PGM contracts, will they be able or allowed to make good on there gold and silver positions? Will the firms and indivuals who were cheated, allow this?


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:32
panda @?>(@?):
TED -- You asked for it, so here it is! Without further delay, I present the weekly Long Bond chart. Apparently the rally was due to a, 'flight to quality', sparked by a rumor of a delay in implementing the EMU. Did someone say the EMU was a flightless bird?


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:37
panda @will.the.real?>(@will.the.real?):
Now, will the real, 'flight to quality', instrument please shine bight yellow, er, I mean stand up? The clock is ticking, says the chart. A little more of a rally in the bonds and then? Perhaps rising rates in a month or two? Could it be? Nah! Stay tuned.

Gone now.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:38
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
Good morning all, its Saturday already! Following news feed about the immediate need for an interest rate rise is interesting....& George S. Cole is right on the money again....
Figures from the German Bundesbank showed 11.4 percent of Germans were out of work in May, compared with 11.2 percent in April, while the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 4.8 percent in May, its lowest level since October 1973.

But a weaker-than-expected U.S. 138,000-job rise in May payrolls, while counteracted by upward revisions to the March and April figures, caused some to question the immediate need for higher interest rates.

You could talk a bit that the number was neutral for Fed policy, but with stocks and bonds so strong, I don't think you can get a whole lot out of that argument, said Mike Malpede, senior foreign exchange analyst at Refco Group Ltd. in Chicago.
Reuters...6/6/97 ( Yahoo News )

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:44
market watcher More on EMU story>(More on EMU story):
Friday June 6 5:10 AM EDT

Waigel to hold June 18 CSU briefing on EMU, gold

By Emma Thomasson

BONN, June 6 ( Reuter ) - German Finance Minister Theo Waigel will defend his controversial plan to revalue Bundesbank assets and his stance on Europe's single currency to his Christian Social Union ( CSU ) on June 18, the CSU said on Friday.

A CSU spokesman said Waigel had been due to address the party, the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrats ( CDU ) , earlier this week, but was forced to cancel because of ``important engagements in Bonn.''

Waigel on Tuesday was forced to retreat from his plan to help plug a gaping budget hole and qualify for the euro with profits from revalued central bank assets, after sharp Bundesbank criticism and disquiet in the ruling coalition.

The beleaguered Waigel on Wednesday survived an opposition parliamentary motion calling for his dismissal, after Kohl threw his weight fully behind the struggling minister.

CSU sources in Bavaria's state parliament said there was broad dissatisfaction with Waigel in his own party, particularly because of the row with the fiercely independent Bundesbank over asset revaluation.

The sources said the party was critical of their leader because he had not informed them sufficiently over his plans.

Waigel on Thursday denied there was any discussion in the CSU party about a possible delay to the start of European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) , planned for 1999, as reported by Friday's edition of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

The Munich-based paper said CSU members were discussing a possible delay due to the left-wing election victory in France.

Waigel also reaffirmed that Germany would meet entry criteria as outlined in the Maastricht Treaty and that the deficit criteria must be strictly met at 3.0 percent or below of Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) .

The Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily quoted a member of the CSU state government in Bavaria as saying: ``Since the French election we have agreed currency union must be postponed.''

The report said the CSU state government and CSU members of the state assembly in Bavaria believed a single currency would be a ``monetary death sentence'' after new French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin suggested it could be launched with softer financial criteria.

A spokesman for Bavarian Premier Edmund Stoiber said in response to an inquiry that Stoiber saw only 50-50 chances of a punctual launch of the euro if France's new leaders met certain election campaign pledges.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, France's new Finance Minister, has suggested that criteria in the Maastricht treaty on monetary union, including a requirement to cut public deficits to three percent of gross domestic product, should be interpreted politically rather than in strict mathematical terms.

Stoiber, quoted by the Sueddeutsche, said softening the criteria could have disastrous consequences. ``If people notice in the year 2005 that they have given up their currency too soon, we can really talk about a bomb in Europe,'' he said.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:44
ALL.... IMHO...China has made it's purchase of MFN status today. You may expect this to be announced next week. A little arm twisting was all it took....Those trips some questioned a couple of weeks ago did the trick. Now we have China and Japan as big holders of US paper...The plot thickens !!!!! Just wonder if it was an emergency prop up or just anothre way to keep things going for a while ? Some of you intellectuals chew on this one for a while.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:45
Este on COT>(on COT):
COT for June 3rd available at

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:45
Panda: T'weren't me. .... Graves probably kicked over another rock again. You know how it is, another noncontributing lurker. Some of them, occaisionally, come down off a bad trip and coherence becomes difficult.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:47
Steve (Perth WA) Impressed>(Impressed):
Panda, top Long Bond chart! I presume after point 5 in a few months, it will blow out like during 1995!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 19:52
tarnished makin waves from Dinghy>(makin waves from Dinghy):
Mooney: Your 13:41, I believe the reason you never mentioned anything about Ballard earlier, is because you didn't know anything about them.
A couple months back Earl, Ted and I were conversing about the useage of electric cars and the lack of requirement for catalytic converters if this should come to pass. After it was pointed out how archaic present
battery technology is I presented Ballard and Fuel cells as the more forward approach to the problem; following which you had nothing but questions. Please don't present yourself as the proprietor of information
which you gleaned from here.
As an addendum; The Chicago Transit Authority, Honda Motor Co. , Ford
and several other major auto and transport manufacturers, have signed contracts with Ballard as there chief souces of fuel cell technology.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:00
ted butler Chutzpah Award>(Chutzpah Award):
Here's to that well known and long time platinum miner, palladium refiner and user, and all around PGM physical presence Dresdner Bank for their sincere ( we're only suggesting it for the greater good of the market ) call for the U.S. to release the strategic stockpile of Pt and Pa to calm down the disorderly ( going against us ) markets. I'm sure it has nothing to do with any short or lease obligations. Oh, I forgot, this is part of the original Marshall Plan. And here I thought we all had to eat our own losing trades.

Seriously though, I've read an awful lot of passionate discourse here about politics and social security and corporate and personal welfare, but I'm dumbfounded there is no outrage that a foreign bank would suggest a bailout so soon into a market move. I'm also taken back with the new definition of a cash transaction having delivery extended to 30 days ( let's see what happens in 30 days ) . I have to admit it sounds a lot better than default.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:17
WW @New England>(@New England):
TED BUTLER: I believe an earlier post here indicated that Dresdner Bank was selected as a Dealer for US Treasuriies. Shortly after this they sold a boat load of GOLD 350 calls for 17 which expire in May 1998. Their worry re the White metals may be the contagion effect and since the problem in those Markets are PHYSICAL the paper boys cant do anything with their derivitives and in fact the derivitives are now working to make the situation worse. Whites keep rising might push up silver and gold and we know about the short position in those mkts.

Reason for pandering to China clear now BOC rumored to be big treasury buyer. After China and 34% of debt foreign owned our boys are becoming really indebted to overseas sources to keep the bubble going. We will see worse trade deals and NO demands on China.

Stk mkt rise and pressure on metals at end means they need to keep pumping the confidence drug when the economic situation has never been nor is it possible to imagine it being more precarious.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:30
Ted Butler: what't that about Dresdner? Do you have a source for that? Very interesting. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:30
Mike Sheller we are very much amused>(we are very much amused):
My thanks to all. A very entertaining and exciting week. Returning from Florida was well worth it. Nothing like a precious metal or two busting loose to make life worthwhile, eh? bw: 17:50 Existentialism comes to Kitco. Write On! Well Done. new kid: Keep Buyin'. You want to hold the cold metal in your hand! Bernatz, & Earl: Thanks for the laughs!!! BART: I think at this point you could charge a subscription fee. This is better than Methadone. And finally, thank you Platinum: What little of you I own has done me proud. It's nice to have SOMETHING in the old portfolio jumpin!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:40
bw: I vividly remember part I of the Greenspan saga and heartily second Vronsky's comments. .... When seized by the creative itch, please pass part III along.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:48
WW @New England>(@New England):
Hypothetical Ques for any Metals Markets Technical experts. The following is a hypothetical situation and I would like to know if there are any risks and if so what are they.


PrecM Co. has 7 million ounces of mineable reserves in gold. 3 million of these are in the development process and will come on line next year.
The company is currently producing 200,000 ozs per year and this will ramp up hopefully to 350,000 when the mine in development comes on board.The company will produce only 200,000 this year but has sold call options on current years production of 400,000 ozs with a strike price of 390. All spot deferreds are being covered for this year and future years so the short options are the only hedge. If Gold suddenly goes to 450 THIS YEAR are there any risks and if so what are they? The co says there are none because they can roll forward. Viewing the white metals this week is their statement accurate and/or does their future reserves and production adequately protect them?


Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 20:58
MIKE SHELLER..Did you see my earlier question to you ?Do you have an up to date astro-forcast on silver Would you mind posting it if you do ? Particularly for next couple of weeks.....

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:00
ted butler Dresdner source>(Dresdner source):
REB: I read the story a few times over the past day or so. One source I just checked was yahoo-REUTERS 4:21.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:00
Reify @Some things remain the same>(@Some things remain the same):
Enjoy reading everyone's post, and have great respect for most, but one has to have faith in himself ( or herself ) , and I think what's important at this time is to step back and look at the overall picture. The large one. It's worth a 1000 words!

As Jimmy Rogers often points out, don't look at what everyone reads and sees, look at the trend and what it says about the future. Well let's do that. We have low inflation, we're told ( I think the true inflation picture is hidden behind a mountain, and that mountain is the DEBT ) .
Then let's look at the world's stock markets, they are all at extremely high levels, do we agree, so far?
Now there's the question of precious metals, which have always gone in the opposite direction, on a cyclical basis, and low and behold, we see they are very low, and on a several year basis, let's say as far back as 1982, they look like a gigantic base is forming. This also being true for precious metal stocks. Sure we've been in a bear market in these stocks, but what comes after a bear, you've guessed it- A BULL, and that' no bull.
Now for the traders. We have several, who have made excellent calls, no need to mention names, we all read the same posts. This fool has tried and failed, playing the trading game. I wonder with all the lovely stories of success, after Uncle Sam, or whomever, get's his cut and commisions are paid, and the losses are subtracted from the gains, how many can say, they are truly ahead in the long run?
Right again, not too many.

So for most of us we have to look to buy wisely, whatever that means, and sit and watch our profits acumulate over time. If not ours, then our children and grandchildren's. This having been said, we all know that looking into the future, with all the givens, Markets will tumble Gibralta will crumble, they're only made of clay, but our love is here to stay. VIVE, VIVA, long live GOLD!

Sorry, but I'm overly tired, and one sometimes sees things better, or worse, at night.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:05
Some interesting numbers from Mr Kaplans daily update on COT report for white metals. For both PL and PA, the conventional wisdom has been reversed. The commerials were net short and the specs net long in both cases.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:08
M-B Partner>(Partner):
Tarnished: I'm following the Ballard story with interest. Could you provide support/documentation for your assertion that Honda and Ford have signed contracts with Ballard as there chief souces of fuel cell technology.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:10

Having not had a lot of sleep the last few days I offer the following delusion. Some weeks back, there was a rumor in the market that the Russians wanted to use their PGM stockpile as collateral for a loan. The story goes that because the PGM's are so illiquid it would be hard to price and hedge paper based on this stuff, so the Swiss bankers that were approached said nyet or whatever Swiss bankers say. Suppose for a moment that this was true. The Russians were looking to borrow against their PGM inventory instead of dumping it on the market because they knew that over time it would be worth more than at a one time fire sale. After having been rebuffed they took the only course of action available. Freeze all exports, allow the miracle of supply and demand to work its magic, then when the world has reaccessed the value of PGM's go back to the market and ask again. Who know's, maybe they still have a big stockpile and will trade it for some useless but less volatile backing such as gold. Maybe in exchange for a big old pile of PGM's that is desparately needed, they will get themselves a big old pile of gold that no one seems to want. Could be the Russians are getting the hang of this free market stuff a lot faster than anyone thinks.

Bart's article seems to set the clock ticking for the PGM market. Far too much political pressure will brought to bear upon anyone with stockpiles if it means the shutdown of the auto industry. I wonder if old Ron Rubin will be on the phone this weekend with his buddy Julian Roberts. I'd like to have that transcript!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 21:56
Tortfeaser, et al:

Awarenessly Challenged Golden Blond Jokes...

Q: What do you call a dead golden blond in a closet?
A: The 1984 Hide and Seek World Champion.

Q: What do you call a smart blond?
A: A golden retriever.

Q: How does a blond kill a fish?
A: She drowns it.

Q: What do you do when a blonde throws a pin at you?
A: Run ....she's got a hand grenade in her mouth.

Q: What is the blonde doing when she holds her hands tightly
over her ears?
A: Trying to hold on to a thought.

Q: Why did the blonde stare at frozen orange juice can for two hours?
A: Because it said 'concentrate'.

Q: Why did the blonde climb up to the roof of the bar?
A: She heard that the drinks were on the house.

Q: What's the difference between Elvis and smart blondes?
A: Elvis has been sighted.

Q: What did the blonde do when she noticed that someone had already
written on the overhead transparency?
A: She turned it over and used the other side.

Q: How do you get a one-armed blonde out of a tree?
A: Wave to her.

Q: How does a blonde high-5?
A: She smacks herself in the forehead.

Q: How do you know when a blonde has been making chocolate chip
A: You find M&M shells all over the kitchen floor.

Q: Do you know why the blonde got fired from the M&M factory?
A: She kept throwing out all the Ws

Q: How can you tell if a blonde's been using the computer?
A: There's white-out on the screen.

Q: How can you tell if another blonde's been using the computer?
A: There's writing on the white-out.

Q: How can you tell when a fax had been sent from a blonde?
A: There is a stamp on it.

Q: Why do all blondes have a dimple in their chin and a flat
A: Finger on chin-I don't know. Hits forehead-Oh I get it!

Q: Why did the blonde scale the chain-link fence?
A: To see what was on the other side.

BLONDE #1: Have you ever read Shakespeare?
BLONDE #2: No, who wrote it?

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:07
Mooney - I am never offended by a reasonable challenge. Re my .23:26, this was a REPOST to make up for appalling sloppy, non-spell checked priors. Originally posted PGM info 23 hours earlier 6/5/97 00:26 ( 6/4/97 9:36 PDT, PL $422 spot with most looking for a pullback ) . I agree with you however, hardly a bold call. More like bold conviction. Looked for $475 in June - $477 spot today, expected $250 palladium by Friday - missed by $2, $248 London spot.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:10
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
Here's URL for a sand platinum play. Did 20% today on half position, OK for a day, warning - speculative speculative. Supposed to be an article in Barons about it.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:10
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
MoreGold : I think you would be wise to discontinue your current chart service because I see no VERY bullish action on my charts. GOLD HAS GONE DOWN IN PRICE SINCE THE BRE-X BULLISH NEWS BROKE.
RE: Fri jun 06 1997 14:41
You actually listed one which is VERY bullish for Gold - the Bre-x washout. The markets had already discounted Bre-x comming on line with 71 to 200 million ounces of Gold. This False Gold then evaporated into thin air. This is bullish not bearish.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:33
Tortfeasor Basketball>(Basketball):
Jazz chewing on some Bull gluteous maximus at halftime. Malone special delivering tonight.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:34
Post Office Salt Lake City>(Salt Lake City):

Mail will be delivered on time.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:36
Post Office SLC>(SLC):

Tortfeasor: Great minds post alike!

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:51
panda @for.the.record>(@for.the.record):
I'm sure most have read these stories already, but for the 'record';

How prophetic,gold crashing, er, I mean in a plane crash...

speaking of auto emissions,

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:52
RJ Alas Auric>(Alas Auric):
Auric - Re your 02:14 in response to my at odds of 01:58 - This was actually a reply to the kind welcome I received from Goldbug 234513 ( 6/6/97 01:27 ) . By the way, what happened to the first 234,512 Goldbugs? This latest in what looks to be a rather long line of Goldbugs ( inbreeding? ) was apparently not satisfied that I corrected my own typo. Sometimes the fingers find the right key, sometimes the key right next to it, and thus our talent in apprised. I guess I am always surprised when humor is met with acrimony, when gentle jousting is met with slash and burn.
I regret you felt misunderstood and the fault is entirely mine for not replying to Monsieur Goldbugger directly.

That said, in response to your concerns about being in over you head, aren’t we all? Who know what this market will do tomorrow? Not I. As for the near term prospects for gold, please understand that I view gold less as an investment or hedge against inflation, rather than a hedge against my more speculative buys. I am forever looking to short gold against my longs whenever the opportunity presents. The risk is minimal and the protection great.

I own gold. I am as susceptible as anyone to it’s allures. I love the way it glows and the way I gets warm so quickly in the palm of my hand. Like most, I have a special place in my heart for gold. I also love to sell it into the dirt and let others test their patience in it’s eventual rise.

Again, I apologize for the slight and the misunderstanding.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 22:57
panda @>(@):
Quotes to live by? Where do they make up some of these words anyway?

``I don't believe South African producers have stocks of metal,'' said Barry Davison, the managing director of Amplats, the world's largest supplier.

``I don't think relief can come from here. The relief can only come from a resumption of Russian supplies and dishoarding of the metal.''

Dishoarding? What MBA came up with that one? I think I have to get a new dictionary.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:11
Consider today to be a dip in platinum, I have purchased what I can and still be considered sane. Trading ground to a halt midday as buyers found no sellers, at any price. If the Russians delivered all they had today, it would be snapped up in a flash. Did anyone notice coin spreads are lower that bullion spreads? When has that ever been seen? That's because it costs more to melt down coins for industrial use. Yes, we have reached the point when private investor platinum holdings ( only 8% of all aboveground platinum in private hands ) are being considered fodder for the cannon. Platinum is a rhino and, like all charging beasts, the safer location is behind it rather than charging up it's nostrils.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:17
Some may be surprised that I do most of my trading in silver, which currently is, at best, a PGM wannbe. P & P are the story now, I hope I do not bore. As for Gold see my 22:52

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:22
Read prior as wannabe. This is what happens to a brain after swimming for 72 hours in a short squeeze. Time to go have a weekend.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:49
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
In Tort's honor the Mailman delivered!...

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:52
Auric @Still buying>(@Still buying):

RJ @ 22:52-Thanks. No apology necessary. It would
be a duller place here if everyone agreed. IMHO,
keep up the posts, they are appreciated.

Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 23:59
Tarnished @ 19:34 - Your post is looking a little bit blackened to me ( tarnished ) with self-righteous accusations. Now that you mention it I do recall that you ( or someone ) had mentioned the fuel cell issue previously. And perhaps I did ask questions. ( Due no doubt to the fact that I was interested! ) . Seems to me that I even requested that the party who posted might e-mail me in private so that we could begin a meaningful discussion in private. This offer was never acted upon. Your pompous remarks are therefore unfounded and unwarranted. As I stated in my recent post, I am very interested in the company and DID e-mail various Friends about the possibilities of the company about a month and a half ago ( when the stock could be had for about $35. ) This was NOT due to any spurious comments that were made by you or others on this forum. I am much more closely aligned with first hand information on this particular issue than you give me credit for, and if the truth be known, ( please review your desultory comments to me ) , you owe me a heart-felt apology for your unfounded remarks. If you require further evidence before issuing me an apology you are free to take up the offer that I made a couple of months ago and e-mail me directly.

As Bart has mentioned to us all: Please Note: For your protection, please do not post any comments...that are accusing, harassing or defamatory. It is your duty as an information provider to verify the accuracy and legality of the content you are providing and to accept liability for any actionable defamation or objectionable material which you may provide.
I realise that this warning may seem a little severe in the present circumstance but it should serve as a reminder to all here that sometimes we push the submit button before we have actually thought about the accuracy and truth about what we post.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:10
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: Be COOL...hahaha...

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:12
Ron Worries>(Worries):
One take on recent developments is that France's slide into socialism, together with other forces that are working to soften Maastricht requirements for the EMU, can only further weaken an already weak European economy. After all, who will invest in France now, given the road they've just chosen for themselves? Not I. And who will invest in greater Europe if the Euro has all the strength, and instills all the confidence, of the old Peso?

The two principle economies competing with the US for the world's investment dollars are Europe and Japan. While not yet basket cases, both are in sad shape at the moment, and there appears to be no end in sight to their problems. That leaves the US way out in front for the forseeable future and that's VERY bearish for gold near and mid-term.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:16
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Any substantial increase in the quanity of money/purchasing
media will lead to an increase in commodity prices. That is
the cause of inflation. Not increased wages, particularly
if the earner produces more. Goods and services will not
appear as if my magic to meet the quanity of money printed.
Check out Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credits.
Nicht war?

Sooner or later Gold will rise again. Gravity has not been
repealed, yet.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:34
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney ( 23:59 ) I think you owe Mr.Tarnished an apology as I distinctly remember the Ballard conversation....Do you still say Wings in six or are you waffeling on that too...I am STILL waiting fer yer presiction on the Calder cup finals between the Hamilton Bull Dogs and the Hershey Bears...
....They are playin in yer back yard fer Christ sakes...answer me!......
tweedle dum...tweedle dee....Some hockey fan you are....

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 00:46
Ted - Read tarnished's post to me. He owes me an apology - believe it!
Also I predicted Detroit in six in the semis and seven in the finals so I MIGHT be wrong on the number of games it takes but it sure looks like I had the team right! :- ) . Also I gues you missed this one this past A.M. - Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:40
Mooney ( ) :
Ted - I KNOW your hurt AND that you're joking with me. I would
have been happy to see N.Y. win also, but it just wasn't in the cards
this year. BTW - I freely admit that I know squat about the
difference between the Bull and the chocolate!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:03
Bart Kitner>(
TO WONDERING: It would be interesting to do some research and find out if there have been defaults in the PGMs in the past and if so what happened in the aftermath. Perhaps one of our regular contributors or lurkers already know?

How it would affect the gold and silver? Probably the same way they would be affected if some shorts were to default for reasons other than short supply. There would be some name-calling, finger-pointing, and their broker would be registering for a new career in web page design. But I wouldn't expect to see much movement in the price as a direct result.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:07
Auric @$600 in 2000>(@$600 in 2000):

Ron @ 00:12-That is an interesting thought. Indeed,
perhaps that explains a lot of recent strengh in US
dollar. I don't think the EMU will fly either. Is
it possible that a failed, or weak EMU could make a
strong dollar but not affect gold that much ( in US
dollar terms ) ? My thoughts: US has same problems
as Europe and Japan, but not as severe. We have not
addressed our fiscal affairs either. I expect a
general debasement in currencies, with the Dollar
being hurt less than the Yen or EMU ( or whatever ) .
In other words, gold goes higher in Dollar terms,
but much higher in other currency terms. Would
welcome any thoughts.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:21
Bernatz de Ventadorm Le fou@needs a lawyer>(Le fou@needs a lawyer):
For Monsieur Earl
Zank you so much for your zo kindly support in my
time of difficultie. By zee way, ah may need a lawyer
if ah cannot stay a leetle ahead of zee peuple fron zat
last small village. Do you zink zat monsiour W. Wackair
of zee varmint region might be of assistance. Also he
iz zo funny by gar, and he talk so much, he would lift
mah spirits

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 01:33
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@supplies swords>(le_fou@supplies swords):
for Mes amis Mooney Ted and Tarnished.
Ah zink you ALL owe each ozair an apologie. If not,
Ah zink you should settle ziz mattair wiz zee FRENCH
SWORD by dam. If you require, Ah can supply zem by
air mail ( for a small fee, naturellement ) .

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:02
steve puetz>(
what happened to platinum today is a forewarning of the market situation
for gold -- heavy forward selling, massive gold loans, and physical demand far exceeding physical supply. All precious metals will soar.
The real trigger will be a stock market creash.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:13
Jack Answers for Mr. Bear>(Answers for Mr. Bear):

Mr. Bear: I am sure that the answers that follow will
never compare with those of the regulars. But anyway:

1. Unlimited supply because the stockpile will never
Ans. Not many will melt their jewels at the low price
that we have right now, nor will others sell their pure
bullion at these prices.

2. CB's Supplies.
Ans. The big argument in Germany is more than just a
common currency question. Say different cultures - and
how they think and interact with each other.

3. No currency based on gold.
Ans. Governments have and will fail again, many are
totering as you ( may be ) reading this.

4. Major retail buyers uneducated and poor ( asia, middle
east ) .
Ans. Common sense plays a major role in decisions,
especially when applied to government actions. Most
people will defend their country, but dislike their

5. Cannot rally with PMG's.
Ans. Really cannot argue, but there are many gold and
silver shorts out there.

6. Governments want low price=low inflation.
Ans. The share markets are well inflated. Government
figures are not accurate. My living costs are much
higher year over year. If I go back 20 years, I Say WOW.

7. Bre-x and friends.
Ans. They will become the goldbugs folk heros.

8.Arizona to produce gold from sand.
Ans. Considered that Bre-x was finding gold at a rate of
1 to 3 ounces per second, this, according to whose
numbers were being used.

9.No news moves gold prices.
Ans. Stock market mania has everyone invested and mania's
do end. They can fool most of the people some of the
10. Negative Perceptions
Ans. A Contrian Buy signal.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:34
tarnished @dinghy and drifting>(@dinghy and drifting):
M-B: I'm sorry, it was GM not Ford, who was in leage with Ballard.
The program Venture, on the comunist broadcasting corp ( cbc ) did a major expose on Ballard listing the many companies they're dealing with at present. These sites may be of help, I can't recall all of them, right now....too tired.
Mooney, I save apologies for my mates, sorry but I'm not attracted to you.
night too TED!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 02:38
tarnished Iz varnished>(Iz varnished):
Bernatz: I'd love a sword! Is it an antique?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 03:18
The Last Goldbug Formerly Goldbug 234513>(Formerly Goldbug 234513):

RJ ( 22:52 ) : Meant no harm. I apologize. Thank you for
helping me select my new handle.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 05:59
This is interesting how NYMEX is increasesing margins. I can understand why. How will this affect price? The bulls are so deep In-The-Money that they may not be affected as much as a short who has lost alot and now needs even more margin. The Long Term Gold bears SHOULD learn from this,... but they won't until it is too late.

( NYMEX ) will increase the margins on its platinum and
palladium futures contracts as of the close of business
Monday, June 9, the exchange announced today.
The margins for platinum will be increased to $2,000
from $900 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $990 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,215 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving platinum's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other platinum
months, the margins will be increased to $300 from $150 for
clearing members; to $330 from $165 for members; and to $405
from $203 for customers, according to NYMEX.
The margins for palladium will be increased to $2,000
from $1,000 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $1,100 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,350 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving palladium's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other palladium
months, the margins for palladium will be increased to $300
from $150 for clearing members; to $330 from $165 for
members; and to $405 from $203 for customers, according to
the exchange.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 06:10
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
STEVE PUETZ: Good to see you on the thread. Do you still think the gold stocks will go down with the rest of the market when the crash comes? And then start to rise. After how long?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:10
Duncan To: Reify @ 21:00>(To: Reify @ 21:00):
Your 21:00 post cheered me up no end; but Mr. Bear's post ( 12:59 ) does
wory me! I guess patience is the name of the game.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:20
George S. Cole stocks and gold>(stocks and gold):
Steve Puetz: Your argument that the stock market holds the key to the next gold bull is right on the money. Too many are focusing on the currencies in my opinion Currency movements have indeed been the key factor moving gold prices under the current investment paradigm, but we are about to enter a new paradigm wherein the yellow stuff will soar against all currencies as fear of a collapse replace ongoing financial euphoria.

I don’t think it will require a stock market crash to get gold moving in a big way. A drop of 15% ( either slow or fast ) not quickly followed by a rebound to new highs will suffice quite nicely. Once the smart money concludes that the huge financial asset bull is ending, all the CB manipulations in the world will not be able to keep the yellow stuff from soaring.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:48
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Mooney ( 00:46 ) Yer right ...fer a change!...I did miss that bit about about the bull+chocolate....and here I thought I was perfect...hahahaha

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 07:55
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Bernatz de Ventadorm ( 1:33 ) I prefer GUNS!...REB: The Mailman delivered last night!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:00
Speed @home>(@home):
Barron's has article on Platinum in Commodities Corner. The prediction is that it will go over 500 leading a metals bull market.
European money moved into U.S. bonds yesterday, causing drop in interest rates and surge in stocks. Historically, this is an indicator of the last stages of a bull market. The Europeans buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Check out Market Watch. This section in Barron's is for newsletter authors and has been bearish for most of this year. Today it's full of dow 14000 sentiment. Has the last bear capitulated? These things are all bullish for the metals imho.

Panda: How about that Stillwater?! : )

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:01
Charlse H.>(
George S. Cole:

Recently, you posted a report by the LGN group discussing the white metals. Do you know if they are still sending out nesletters? Do you know anyway of contacting them? They have not responded to any of my e-mails regarding my life-time subscription to their e-mail service.

Thanks in advance.

Charlse H.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:02
Mike Sheller @Nailz Biting Time>(@Nailz Biting Time):
NAILZ: Sorry I missed your earlier post. Re your 20:58 asking astro update on silver - all I can say is steady as she goes. I'm working with the Saturn conjunction with NYSE Moon. Saturn is now 17.51 Aries, and NYSE Moon is waiting at 19.33 Aries. Saturn is within a powerfuil orb of effect right now, but it makes the right-on hit on Tuesday/Wednesday July 1st & 2nd. Actually, it should have kicked in by now, but you know silver - it can suddenly climb the wall like a shocked cat. Perhaps what we're seeing in the other whites is a portent of what's to come. The trading crowd may suddenly catch on that there's something wrong with the metals picture, and jump on the stuff what hasn't moved yet.
Sometimes the astro effects lag a bit as the metaphysical works its way out here into the physical. Taking initial positions in silver futures or options may be warranted right here, with expanding positions if the market starts working higher. I noticed puts on silver options running ahead of calls the other day. This is another minor bullish sign. Still figure July to be hot for silver. Hang in.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:04
TED @speed>(@speed):
Was just goin to post about Commodities corner in Barrons but you beat me to it!..Mornin Novice and Liz: I'm off fer my weekly fix of the Grope+Flail...beautiful day on the ocean!!!!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 08:57
tarnished - although I may have been a little stiff in my reprimand it was meant as example for all that we should be a little more certain of our statements when we attempt to postulate on the knowledge that another participant may or may not have. Apparently you are loath to make a public apology. Although you say that you are in your dingy, you still do not get my drift. Please e-mail me and I'll explain more fully to your satisfaction.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:42
Lan Man Agreed!>(Agreed!):
Steve Puetz: Agree with your analysis of the metals market. Anticipating your new book - by the way - any estimated ship date?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:45
Ted: Yes, I thought Karl Malone looked more at ease last night.

The Bulls need to remove the glue from the bottoms of their shoes.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 09:53
I love reading bearish arguments on gold at this point. The shorts need to keep this up to extend the game of musical chairs to which BT has alluded.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:04
panda @Platinum.palladium>(@Platinum.palladium):
Speed -- For once I can believe the volume numbers! The Nasdaq method of counting shares traded also counts dealer to dealer transactions. Ergo, a few 'individuals' can make a stock look much 'busier' than it really is.

In the FWIW column, todays Investors Business Daily ranked SWC a 'B' on their Accum/Dist scale. 'A' meaning strong accumulation and 'E' being strong distribution. It also ranked well into the most actives in volume. One of the things that I watch in a stock during the day is the number and size of trades. SWC had a lot X,000 share buys and the sells seemed to be of 100 to 200 share size. Translation, funds are buying. Warning? They ( funds ) can dump as fast as they buy.

Even the Nightly Business Report had the stock on their most actives on the AMEX. It was funny watching Paul Kanga? trying to explain the movement. Something like, Platinum and palladium have been moving up, and Stillwater is in the business of mining it. Duh! :- ) :- ) :- )

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:05
panda @>(@):

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:19
wondering w@w>(w@w):
Hello Bart:

It will be interesting to see how segregated customers segregated funds are if there are defaults.



Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:47
Tortfeasor joke of the morn>(joke of the morn):
How about them there Jazz. They just have to do it three more times. Any thoughts on the direction of platinum on Monday? I'm hoping it takes a dip at first so I can sale my short term puts and get my money back. I decided it might retract follwoing the big run last week but then my broker screwed me on the price for the puts. Nevermind my grousing without further adieu here is the joke.

A very spiritual, devout and holy priest dies and is immediately swept
up to heaven.

St. Peter greets him at the Pearly Gates, and says, Hello, Father,
we've been waiting for you for a long time. Welcome to Heaven! You
are very well known here, and as a special reward, because you are
such a spiritual and holy man, we're going to grant you anything
you wish even before we enter Heaven. What can I grant you?

Well, the priest says, I've always been a great admirer of the
Virgin Mother. I've always wanted to talk to her.

St. Peter nods his head to one side, and lo and behold who should
approach the priest but the Virgin Mary!

The priest is beside himself, and he manages to say, Mother, I
have always been a great admirer of yours, and have studied
everything I could about you and followed your life as best I
could. I have studied every painting and portrait ever made of
you, and I've noticed that you are always protrayed with a
slightly sad look on your face. I have always, always wondered
what it was that made you sad. Would you please tell me?

Well, says Mother Mary, honestly, I was really hoping for a girl.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:48
Tortfeasor Woops>(Woops):
I just read my last post. Is there an English teacher in the house? I need big help in the grammar department.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:50
Notnick @Bermuda>(@Bermuda):

I am wondering if the Platinum move is only because of the supply problem or is it really one of the 'up' indicators that we have been looking for?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 10:55
Mike Sheller @the Charts>(@the Charts):
The 30 Year T-Bond has held support at 108 and is about to challenge the important 113/114 level. If it can break 114 at this angle of acceleration, it will be out of a significant Rhino pattern downtrend. We could look for a continued rally for at least a month or two.
This could put stockmarket participants into a final frenzy. If the precious advance with bonds and stocks, this would fulfill an important timing requirement for the paper bull. After all 3 asset classes rise together, bonds top out first. As bonds decline stocks top out, with gold rising. Then stocks go down and gold moves into its peak. The only other time in this whole bull that that happened was in '93, when all were moving up. Then came '94 when bonds tanked, followed by a stock correction of the general market that was masked by the relatively shallow decline of the major averages. Then gold stagnated, and finally aborted in '96. Could be one more chance at this asset turnover coming up. If the T-Bond can't get past 114, then a reversal from there means paper has finally had it. Watch the DJ Utility Average. If it accompanies bonds up, then there's a blowoff coming.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:36
panda @>(@):
Mike Sheller -- Yup.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:39
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Re your point #6. Daily costs are up over the last 20 years as you suggest. Is gold up by the same amount? Consider compound interest on the cash tied up in gold over the same time. Take a look at the gold price over the last 15-20 years or the last 15-20 months. Its going Down Jack Down not up. Blame it on the CB's Greenspan anyone you like. The price of gold has been going down for almost 2 decades. Not a comment to be taken lightly around here and a contrarian indicator to the hope springs eternal bunch. Looked at in another way. How long do you think you are going to live. Will gold reverse its trend of the last 2 decades before you go to your reward?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:45
MIKE SHELLER....Thanks for your info on astrology for silver....And you do not have to worry about me hanging in there.....I am here for the duration....Just looking to add papers and margins....

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:46
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Jack 02:13 Good try! At least you are thinking and not relying on the convictions of others for your investment decisions.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 11:54
Fundy: Here is a graph for you to look at.
Consider the period 1961 to 1981. And consider the period 1981 to now. And consider the period now to ......
Yes, gold has been a dog the last 17 years. And financial assets were considered dead in 1981. The question is what happens the next twenty years. Continuation of rise for financial assets? That's not where my money is.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:09
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
REB: As always its a bet. But I believe the idea is to go with the trend and this is some trend. I remeber the DOW going through 1000 and a crash was immenent. We have 8000 now for the crash sight. Why not 9000 or 10 000 or 15 000? It has been enlightening to see some of the more frequent and apparently erudite posters here see every setback as a further sign that gold is about to rise. We have one gentlemen here and elsewhere who has been predicting a rise for over a year undeterred by the decline. Its all a bet. But the slogans should be examined.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:43
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Fundy - Yes the DOW could go to 10,000 and YES Gold is still in a bear market. But the tide WILL change. It may not be this year but it will be this decade and when it does Gold will go up! How high Well if we were to ask 1000 Gold traders what's the highest level Gold will reach between now and Dec 31st 2005 my guess is we are going higher than the highest guess! I do agree that one should not be foolish into a buy and hold. Don't worry about missing the boat. When the boat starts to leave there will be plenty of time to jump on.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:54
Predictor @>(@):
General Market:
Dow to 8000 by end of June. July ( down ) . August ( rebound ) . Sept through Mid-December ( down ) . Mid-December through mid-January ( up ) .
mid-January through Feb ( down ) . March ( rebound ) .

Up slightly by the end of June ( $350-365 range ) ... Silver ( around $5 )

July down.

August through steady and slow increase in both metals.

December through March ... Strong for Metals.

Gold to $450 ( maybe a little higher 460-500 ) range.
Silver to $5.50 ( maybe a little higher 5.50 to 7.00 ) range.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 12:56
Predictor @>(@):
If Mr. Bear doubts the Predictor, I will give him five mining shares ( gold and silver ) for him to short and give him sleepless nights.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:24
George S. Cole Predictions>(Predictions):
Predictor: We do have some short-term timing differences, but we are on the same wavelenght in projecting a move above $400 in early 1998.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:43
News Story: ( as written in Nevada newspaper )


VANCOUVER, British Columbia:

A Vancouver exploration company headed by a promoter banned in British Columbia says it had more gold in its Nevada property than Bre-X Minerals claimed to have in Indonesia.

American Technology Exploration Corp., whose corporate address is a Vancouver post office box, says it Moapa property northeast of Las Vegas contains 76 million ounces of gold.

The initial feasibility study conducted by Kilborn Engineering on Bre-X's Indonesian property determined there were 71 million ounces of gold on that property. That calculation was later renounced after it was determined that drill information provided by Bre-X management was bogus.

American Technology's stock, which trades on the Nasdaq bulletin board, peaked at $8.75 on March 9.

The above news article appeared in the business section of the Las Vegas Review Journal the morning of June 6, 1997. I can't believe an exploration company would issue a press release like this after the Bre-X hoax and expect anyone to believe it.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:43
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Glenn: If 1000 gold traders told me that gold was going to $400 by noon Monday I might believe them. Their predictions for Dec 31 2005 are of no use to anyone. Once the search feature is operable again here it will be possible to get a history of the predictions from the more frequent and adamant posters here and settle my curiosity. Do the predictions anticipate the change in the price of gold, do they follow the price of gold or are they unrelated to the price of gold.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 13:52
bw us treasury bonds:>(us treasury bonds:):
This unsecured asset class comprises almost six trillion dollars. Said to be risk free because it is backed by the taxing power of the usa. This overlooks the reason banks require collateral from even good customers. Collateral is required in case the debtor can not pay. Can't think of the usa not being able to tax some more? Posit a depression ( one has occurred like clock work every other generation since this country was founded ) . Since our credit bubble far exceeds anything that occurred in the 1920's we can expect our bust to also exceed the bust of the 1930's. The 1930's saw 25% - 30% unemployment, we may see at least 40%. During the coming bust every counter cyclical gov program in existence will be demanding huge amounts of cash. At the same time tax receipts will fall by at least 60%. If there could be a deficit it would be perhaps over five billion dollars a day. Of course we will be in a new era, the word deficit will have no meaning. There will be no more deficits ( at least for another two generations ) because there will be no fools to borrow from. The books will be balanced daily for awhile. Outgo equal income. The very last thing the gov will need in this environment, is a six trillion dollar debt from a time so far in the past as to be almost not remembered ( computers can be made to forget the number six trillion, in a microsecond ) .

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:10
FrenchMan Gold>(Gold):
Predictor-You wrote July will be a down month for Gold.So how far will the price go down : 340,330,...?If you're right it will be the last opportunity for buying gold!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:29
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
To All: Barrons has two major articles on gold. The first one is titled Indiana Jones and it is about the geologist at Robert Stevens Company and how he kept the firm out of trouble with Bre-X and the 2nd article is titled Son of Vancouver and the Alberta Stock Exchange.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:39

Am following the Ballard thread with interest. Can definitely
vouch for Stevie - he knew about this way before it was
even a company - he developed the technology and was
the first to come up with the periodic table, as I recall.
It's a shame that other people usurp all his work. But that's
just the kind of guy he is, always way ahead of everyone and
generous with his knowledge. I would definitely recommend
E-mailing him, Mr. Tarnished. When I did, he offered me
a handsome sum to back up every tale he tells on this
site. You can believe I took advantage of his generous offer.
Stevie for Top Prophet and all-knowing master of time and space.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:43
bw: Excellent .... and that ain't fiction. Thoughts of depression and comparison to those of the past should also include a reflection of our presently diminished natural resource asset base. In the 30s we had natural resources in abundance. All available for exploitation at minimal cost. In the future we will be forced to compete on the open market for many of them with a suspect currency, at a time of severe financial distress.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 14:58
Mike Sheller Contracting>(Contracting):
bw: A scary and depressing scenario. Since this is a gold site, I wonder how you see the shiny yellow doing in such a case. Do you see out and out debt forgiveness ( or should I say forgetness ) ? Or do you see the printing presses rolling after the first deflationary wave in order to preserve the full faith & credit, etc, of US debt instruments?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:15
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V):
McAlvany’s MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter ( V ) : an indepth economic & precious metals analysis. Must read for serious investors. CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:50
Glenn- you been standin in font of that FAN too long and caught the same disease as the rest of them traders. Better bet you some vitamin AU!

Tally HO

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 15:58
tarnished motoring@dinghy>(motoring@dinghy):
Mooney: Most all things run adrift, and it too has sailed under the bridge....we both know Ballard is a promising company and may provide a boon for Pt, I prefer to focus on that and the fact that it's a BEAUTIFUL
hot sunny day here; And to live life, I can't be stuck on a computer terminal all day.....Au's not the only thing that has glitter!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:12
steve puetz>(
Goldbug23: Once gold bullion moves higher, and the stock market begins to crash, gold stocks will behave better than other stocks, but they still may go lower in a crash.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:23
steve puetz>(
George Cole: Glad to see that you agree that a stock market crash is the key to gold's revival. Really, it's more than that. It's the whole financial-asset mania that will implode once stocks begin to fall. Once the financial collapse begins, the only alternative will be commodity-money -- mainly gold and silver, but also platinum.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:28
steve puetz>(
Speed: I also read the Barron's article this morning. One of the key points was that spreaders were unwinding spreads where they had previously bought gold and sold platinum. But the platinum premium over gold kept getting larger. Margin calls have now forced these spreaders out of the market. The past few days, they have been buying platinum, and selling gold. Once the unwinding of spreads stops, gold will rise.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:29
Steve Puetz- I prefer your version of the gold and stock prediction.

Did yall hear that good ole boy, one of them many that call up CNBC and want to know jest what they should do because they are JEST GETTIN STARTED WITH A PORTFOLIO Hell boy, BUY with both hands!!

Now with that mentality don't you know when this thing does turn and these BOYS wantin to be in stocks they are goin to head to the gold
funds like crazy. Iffin you think 1993 was fun especially those of you that were in the Lexington Stragetic Investment fund, up 297%, that was a preview of what is to come!

Some uninformed sole yesterday refered to the forward selling of gold by the mines. I believe that most of the forward selling had been by the North American mines and that might be a cause of the gold price being
negatively effected for a bit. The only SA mine that I know of for sure that did a big forward sell was Western Areas. Western Areas was also the reason that Lexington Stregetic Investments had that find record in 1993.


Tally HO

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:32
steve puetz>(
Lan Man: There have been 3 separate mailings of Total Collapse. I mailed the first set on Wednesday, June 4th. The second set was mailed on Friday, June 6th. The other mailing was done by Newsletter Systems in Minneapolis, MN -- I'm not sure when they did their mailing. If you give me your name, I'll let you know if you were on one of my mailing lists.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:39
steve puetz>(
Notnick: The platinum move is probably for real. Platinum loan rates of 150% indicate an extreme shortage in the cash market. Once the gold-platinum speads are unwound, gold could easily make an up-move as explosive as platinum's. Remember, gold has been forward-sold and loaned just like platinum. It's interesting that platinum has gone from a 2-year low to the highest point since 1990 in the span of a few weeks.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:45
steve puetz>(
Fundy: I've also been wrong about the stock market bull, but 10,000 seen absurd at this point. AAII bulls are at 52% this week, one of the highest levels of past 10 years. CBOE call/put ratio very high. These are good contrary indicators. Volume momentum is declining. New highs are contracting. Mutual-fund inflows are declining. Speculators are pouring in. Junk-bond sales are sky-rocketing. All signs of termination and/or over-heating of financial markets.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 16:48
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
Gotta go with SILVER Charm.......

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:12
TED @Belmontstakes>(@Belmontstakes):
....And Touch Gold a close second...

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:17
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
ALL: Look at kitco 10 year historical data graph and show me why you believe a stock market crash like we had in Oct 87 would be bullish for gold? Oct. 87 gold was $465.36 today it's $344.00 or 26% less. All Goldbugs should pray that the stock market does not crash or you could lose an additional 26% on gold investments.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:29
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Gold demand is up but so are the markets. Ask yourself what would average joe consumer do if his portfolio crashed? Would he run out and buy gold jewery or gold coins. I think not!!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 17:47
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
Exacta....Touch GOLD wins...SILVER Charm a close second....

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 18:05
ACW The god's have spoken!>(The god's have spoken!):
All your chart prognostications and mental gymnastics are for naught.

The God's have set the Golbug's an OMEN!

Touch Gold 1st.

Silver Charm 2nd.

Sorry Mr Bear!

Next week strange miraculous happenings are going to transpire in the Gold and Silver markets. The God's have spoken!!!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 18:59
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
Presents a world shattering essay explaining reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Gold Digest:

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:08
ACW: You been talkin' to cherokee this weekend. I can tell. .... ( :- ) )

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:09
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : joe consumer does'nt have a prayer in the coming crash. we are not talking about him. we are talking about big money seeking a safe haven. where do you think that's going to go.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:16
ACW smokey>(smokey):
Earl: There definitely was a swirl of smoke and a loud thought voice telepathically told me to send forth the message! :-o ) )

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:17
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - If mining stocks might go lower in a crash, what do you
suggest? Bullion coins? Collectable gold and silver coins?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:25
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Earl : The post by Earl jr. was not me !!! and I haven't been on a trip lately. When I post , you will see my real name and nothing else. I am a lurker and I only post when the topic is of interest and when I'm not at my real job!!! So I would appreciate if you would not slander me , I have done nothing to you or anyone else. If it is a battle of wits you want , then you've come unarmed!!!and I will oblige. Thank-you

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:25
steve puetz>(
NJ: You're right. But anyone who wants to salvage something from a collapsing credit-money system will move into gold and silver. To many debtors are unable to meet their current repayment schedules. When too many debtors become insolvent, a credit-money system collapses. That's happening now. Gold and silver are the only real non-credit money alternatives available once our present system collapses.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:29
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
NJ: Joe consumer is the big money. Jewelry acounts for 80% of production.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:31
steve puetz>(
Kid Silver: Gold and silver coins are the best investment now. They are money external to our credit-monetary system. Gold shares have an unnecessay element of risk in them. Bre-X is one example. Another possibility is a wind-fall profits tax on gold mines when gold prices go thru the roof. You can take your gold coins with you if you need to leave the country. You can't remove the mine from physical location.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:33
ACW crash>(crash):
There has been some talk that if the general market crashes it will be good for precious metals.

Past facts show this to be far from the truth.

When the general stock market goes down, the gold stocks go down faster,longer.

Past down markets:

Major downs:

- - - INDU - - XAU

1987 -40.3% - -46.5%

1990 -18.6% - -37.8%

1994 -10.8% - -27.6%

1997 -10.6% - -25.9%

Days down:

1987 57 Days 58 Days

1990 37 107

1994 64 82

1997 25 41

The 1997 Dow drop was from 03-11 to 04-14.
The XAU drop was from 03-03 to 04-28.

This history shows us that any decline in the general market
could be a sell signal for the gold stocks.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:34
Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and FSAGX hourly charts

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:35
GVC @Steve Puetz>(@Steve Puetz):
Steve Puetz: continuing the thread of gold stocks in a market crash, I believe that they will probably have a significant decline with the general market but only after they have made, at least, an initial run-up to test their highs. At that point, they will probably be relativlely overbought and will easily sway to the general sentiment created by a crash or the beginnings of one. But, I also do not believe that their decline will be anything more than a normal correction to work off the overbought situation.

Once the crash is over ( usually the tail end of a major decline ) , I believe that investors will begin to look at them much more seriously for 'insurance' purposes out of fear of possible future declines in the general market, especially once they see how well they 'hold up' during the initial decline phase. This will also create renewed interest in the metals themselves.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:35
steve puetz>(
Mr. Bear: When the monetary demand for gold once again emerges, it will push aside jewelry demand. Gold will then become too expensive for consumers. It will soar to $5000 per ounce or higher. Monetary demand for gold always pushes consumer demand aside.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:41
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor):
steve puetz: I concur. I see the Canadian Silver Maple Leaf as the people's investment for the turn of the century. An ounce of pure silver in a beautifully proprtioned coin with a face value of $5 Canadian. Hey, worst comes to worst, you can at least buy a burger and fries or a few gallons of gas with the coin. Best case scenario the six bucks you'll pay now will be 12, or 18, or 24 down the road.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:42
steve puetz>(
GVC: Something similar to what you describe happened from 1929 to 1935. During the last half of October 1929, gold shares ( include Homestake ) lost about half of their value. By 1932, when the Dow hit bottom, the gold shares were up slightly. However, gold shares did not soar until 1932-1935 when the Dow began to recover. Generally, gold shares do not behave very well when the stock market is in a bear market.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:44
Have been lurking for some time and wanted to thank you all for your contributions.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 19:58
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
MGraves: It's time ta drop the puck....Go Flyers!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:01
RT @silver to $5.90>(@silver to $5.90):
I know I've been irrationally exuberant in previously posted forecasts, but I still believe in $5.90 silver. Now I will extend that price to the mid to end of July time frame. Please review posted weekly w/stochastics chart below ( I like drawing lines!!! ) :

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:03
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Hey Ted : Seagull is a hovering!!!!!

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:04
Mike Sheller $2000 in 2000>($2000 in 2000):
Steve: Gold shares didn't start to rise in the depression until gold was confiscated and the dollar devalued in terms of gold. However the point is well taken that a stockmarket catastrophe may affect mining shares negatively as well, at least early on. I too expect gold to be in the 1000's of dollars in the very early years of the next century.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:09
Byron @ The Up and Coming Future:>(@ The Up and Coming Future:):
Like Y.Auger's projections re: XAU in his commentary and on the Weekly Chart. After accessing the Daily Market Wrapup page, scroll down and click on Weekly Chart. ...

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:13
Mike Sheller The Lines are drawn>(The Lines are drawn):
rt: The most important line of all connects the April '95, Jan/Feb '96, and Feb '97 Silver peaks. This line, by the way, goes back to connect the '83 and '87 peaks in silver. A breakout from this line will take silver out of the downtrend it's been in for 14 years!!! The price level for the breakout is roughly $5.20 at this point. I think your 5.90 is a good guess as to where silver will run if this breakout occurs. ( I'm looking for 6.25 myself ) .

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 20:54
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : yes, joe consumer buys some jewelry; but his money in the financial markets is managed by some mutual fund manager entrusted with his employer's pension plan. the little he has on his own is also in mutual funds, recommended by a relative he trusts. we are talking about money management by major financial institution managers, once the panic sets in.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:10
Bfiler @Home>(@Home):

Everytime I read about a referal to a comment or website, it's the same
2 or 3 at Gold Eagle, blah blah blah. This is real scientific research and broad references brought here. If I had played ANY short term metals trade off the comments on this board since I started reading 6 months ago I'd be broke! Folks the kids on the AOL Iomega board made way better calls the blindfolded traders around here do.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:13
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
NJ: Who is going to be the buyers? In reality there are two players, the CBS and the Jewlery manufactures. As we all know the CB's are net sellers or holders, not buyers. The only player left is joe consumer buying jewlery or coins. If the markets crash joe consumer is taken out of the game.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:25
Schippi- Great page and useful links for Fidelity Select Sector investors. Thank you.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:26
NJ joe>(joe):
MR.BEAR : for that please check Steve Puetz, 19:35. money managers will buy gold in a market panic because they know its value and role, despite paying lip service to the pc dictates of CBs. as if you dont know all this : )

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:47
Predictor @>(@):
Frenchman ( 2 something post ) . July $330-345 ( that will be down from end of June ) . My prediction at least. I don't have an exact number magic ball to give exact numbers and dates. : )
I believe July will be an exceptional accumulation period.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:51
M. Graves: My comments were meant in an entirely jocular vein. My sincere apologies for the perceived offense and for not making that crystal clear.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 21:58
Predictor @if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich>(@if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich):
George Cole: I guess similiar theories. I see the bull peaking near month's end ( I don't know an exact date ... I don't claim to be psychic ) .
I feel pretty confident about sometime in July being tough on the market ( general and metals ) . Good accumulation period for metals. I predict August as a rebound month for both. A bear market following for general market through February ( with some rebounds here and there ) and gradual bull for metals ( gold and silver in particular ) to run out until March or so. These forecasts have to do with economic projections ( interest rates, business cycles, inflation, debt ( esp. consumer ) , inventories, etc. ) . I believe this is an exceptional opportunity ( especially July ) to accumulate quality mining companies ( seniors; juniors and growth companies that will be producing a decent amount by January or have quality sites that could be takeover targets {selling individual or acquisitions of entire mining companies} ) . In my view, some of the majors look good and some of them stink. There are some junior and growth companies that will pound the hell out of some shorts ( especially those who I think may be prime takeover targets ) .

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:06
Predictor @>(@):
I realize the metals are also political. However, my predictions are based on economics. With that said, I believe that are several countries and/or intl. issues that have strong possibilities to shake the markets ( which way; who knows; depends on what specific circumstances ) . Included but not limited to:
U.S. ( you name it ) , Canada ( Quebec issue ) , Japan ( banking system ) , China ( MNF status, HK, etc. ) , EMU, North Korea, Middle East, Russia ( as we have already seen; production related ) , and South Africa ( of course; production related ) .

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:16
prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
Perhaps we are at a major turning point in the S&P. If I am correct in the identification of the topping pattern, it is a rising wedge, which is considered very bearish. Elliott Wave teaches that in a rising wedge pattern, a throw-under frequently occurs. A throw-under is a very brief penetration of the lower rising trendline. This happened on 5-30. The throw-under is soon followed by a throw-over, which is a very brief penetration of the upper rising trend line. The throw-over is supposed to happen on heavy vol. The vol. was only moderate, so this might negate the effectiveness of the pattern. The throw-over occurred on 6-7. Very soon after the throw-over, a dramatic change in trend occurs.
Elliott Wave theory holds that a rising wedge pattern only happens at the very end of a bull market move, and is an indication of the exhaustion of the move.
I think that Monday will start off with an up move, which will be reversed, into the start of the A Corrective Wave down. The Corrective B Wave up will likely establish new highs, but the final Corrective C wave down will be large, and very frightening for many investors.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:24
Mike Sheller and all you others out there tryin to figure out how to play it- I will say it again, iffin gold goes to $2000 or sometnin above the current level and the stocks go down with the market the best stocks to own are the ones that pay dividends soos you win either way. The only stocks I know of that traditionally pay their share holders, are the SA shares. Be sure and buy those that have not sold forward, the only one I know of for sure that is sold forward is Western Areas, that could change by the day.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:44
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
REB: Do you have a chart showing the price of gold back to 1920 in constant $?

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 22:56
lurker hi ho silver>(hi ho silver):

anyone know where I can buy 1,000 silver maple leafs. I dont mind getting screwed but I dont want to get raped.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 23:37
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ -- You have posted that you see gold as being 'dead' for the rest of the year. I'm not saying that view is right or wrong. Just trying to quantify your rational/basis behind that thinking. I would appreciate a response. Thanks.

Date: Sat Jun 07 1997 23:42
vronsky GOLD: AN >(GOLD: AN ):
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 00:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
There have been many postings here regarding a general decline in metals stocks during a stock market decline. I understand the natural attraction of stocks in profitable companies, but I fail to understand the attraction to paper in these times! Any kind of paper!! Does everyone still think that these times are 'as normal' as previous times since the Great Devaluement? That one took a fraction of what the next one could bring! Paper? I don't believe it'll 'be' worth what it used to be! In a BIG way!! Many here should be expanding their conceptions of the possibilities that can easily arise give even a modicum of difficulties in handling the debt! There are a LOT of fires out there that are bent on escaping the guardians. Just let a 'bit' more breeze move them! Just let a small mistake get compounded. Just don't be one of those who get caught holding 'the bag'!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 00:32
Jack To Fundy>(To Fundy):

Fundy ( 11:29 ) Its not like everyone here bought gold at
$800+ and are still holding and waiting for it to go
Actually there were many opportunities in both gold and
the mining stocks over the past 20 years.
I feel almost sure that gold amd silver at an
impenatrable base of $500 and $10 respectively would do
most, just fine.
But when considering all that paper manufactured by just
interest payments and the stock markets; both metals
should be much higher.
This doesn't consider the production supply deficits for
those metals.
I feel sure that their prices are being skillfully
rigged, by ebulent stock markets, currency manipulations
and so on. ( NOW WHO'S CAPABLE OF THIS? )
They make Bre-x and Delgratia look like kid stuff.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 01:53
I see that someone likes the name of my consort's handle so much that they have decided to use it as their own. It is either a newbie or a long time lurker trying to steal goat. Good Luck Prognosticator!
Speaking of getting goat; even the distortions and outright lies of John ( hepcat/dragoo/Cool Water/Crab Rangoon/ Parlez Vous/ Zoinks Man/Moa/Mental Case/ can't even get me down today:
as My family and friends surprised me with a 25th Wedding anniversary party. They planned it to a 'T' and my wife and myself were truly surprised and shocked. And a wonderful time was had by all!
Will you still need me, will you still feed me when I'm 64. - Beatles 1967.
And once again, Congrats to you and yours also Mr. Front and consort!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 01:58
Hear ye - Much have I traveled in the realms of gold, And many goodly states and kingdoms seen. ( Keats ) To all who have tolerated and the few who have appreciated my stampede through your village, thanks. Some have said that I get into faces just to count how many are left when the smoke lifts. The remainders, while different, usually share some common characteristics: Jaw set square with willingness to speak true, keen nose to detect the slightest foul stench of deceit or hypocrisy, and cunning eyes to take the sum of what they see. There are those in this group with stout hearts and clear minds and I look forward to future discourse. My tempo is usually very measured with only occasional bouts of fever. Forward.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:01
Goldbug Omega - It’s nice to see the humor appreciated, thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:04
RJ No time now>(No time now):
Eldorado - I kikcked it and it didn't move. I'll give a more detailed responce when I have a chance.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:05
nikita nik@cal.usa>(nik@cal.usa):
I just like to add some to your discussion wether gold stocks
will go up in the bear market if gold will rise
Suppose gold up to $450 majors want to cash in and rise prduction
And here it is BGO sitting on 30 mln, drilling one more hole in the hill.
PDG got smart I will pay BGO $50/oz ( it will give BGO 15$ US ) mine it 150$/oz get some nice 200$
after tax, rise divident for my shareholders.BGO shareholders should not refuse they have been waiting for so long and it is BEAR MARKET
So PDG aproaches BGO with 1.5 $ bln cash and BGO says See this jents over there? ..
Now gess in what direction which gold minning stocks will go
if stock market crash, and gold will go to $450

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:08
RJ substitute an s>(substitute an s):
Re: prior. I refuze to post anything further without cheking the speling

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 02:45
The Government Planner Washigton DC>(Washigton DC):

We have decided ( IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ) to keep the
dollar at its present level relative to the currencies in
order to kick start their economies.
The recent opinions of the Budesbank in their argument
with their government, have told us to leave gold alone,
and allow it to seek its own level.
Additionally we no other recourse, but to keep the stock
market within 15% of its recent highs, by various
government interventions. The small stocks will offer an
arena to keep the US investor from losing large amounts.
While our trade deficit will increase considerably, we
plan that when the deficit figures approach $280 billion.
that we will let the dollar slide.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 06:14
Duncan To: Predictor>(To: Predictor):
Predictor ( 21:58 ) Are you possibly considering Silverado ( GOLDF ) as one of those juniors that will benefit from a takeover? I have heard talk ( was it on Kitco? ) that they have properties in Alaska that either Barrick or Placer Dome are interested in.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 06:37
Duncan To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)>(To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)):
Ray - there are a significant number of marginal gold mines in
South Africa ( not listed in North American stock exchanges ) that are

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 07:37
George S. Cole Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
Gold stocks have generally declined during bear markets. But the situation today is very different than it was at the start of previous bears.

Gold stocks have generally risen during previous bull markets, sometimes quite sharply. In 1987, for example, gold stocks soared along with the rest of the market. Today, by contrast, gold stocks have been dropping for 17 months, while the overall stock market soared. Gold stocks now are far cheaper relative to stocks overall than they were at the beginning of any previous bear market, with the possible exception of 1973.

Much will depend upon gold bullion's performance during the looming bear. Bullion has usually headed lower during previous bears, with the notable exception of 1973-75. But bullion too is far cheaper relative to the stock market than it was at the start of previous bears ( 1973-75 excepted ) . The Dow Industrials now is selling at over 22 times the bullion price. It was just 6 times the bullion price in 1987 and 8 times the bullion price in 1990.

With stocks more overvalued today than at any time in history, the next bear market will much more severe than most past bears -- more like 1929-32 or 1973-75, than 1987 or 1990. Gold generally does best in severe secular bears where the very future of the system comes into question.

We must also remember that the public is far more heavily involved in the stock market today than it was at previous peaks. Hence the political and economic implications of a severe and/or extended bear market are far greater than in the past. Very positive for gold.

I've said it before and will say it again, gold does best when capital starts to run scared. And I submit that capital will be very scared once the next bear market is in full swing.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 07:39
Mooney ( 1:53 ) Congrats on 25th and party....We will make number 17 this summer....Was Rangoon invited th the party...hahahaha

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:10
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Got yer LJ and loved it but post it here....hahaha...Was out fer most of yesterday and had company ( ? ) over last have been out of the cyber-world.....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:17
Speed Mining Stocks and a Bear Market>(Mining Stocks and a Bear Market):
George S. Cole: Your positive outlook for mining stocks is supported by an article on Vronsky's site:

My understanding is that if you bought Homestake Mining in 1929 and held it, you made money all the way through the 1930's. The flight to quality by scared capital will move to mining stocks first IMHO, because stocks are what the investing public believes will succeed. Bullion will follow. Mutual funds are already making strong plays in the metals, witness the Tiger fund and platinum/palladium.

Vronsky: Thanks for the data on Stillwater.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:25
TED @spectacularday>(@spectacularday):
A beautiful day on the ocean and I'm outta here.....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 08:33
Speed keep thinking>(keep thinking):
Mr. Bear and RJ et. al: Your postings are beneficial to this site because they compel us to refute solid arguments which are backed by data. Please keep posting. Be aware of a couple of things:
1. Bullion trading is not limited to commercial producers and jewelry makers per one of your posts yesterday. Two other groups impact prices, speculators and investors. Speculators like the U.S. Tiger fund have a tremendous short-term impact on markets, just look at Platinum/Palladium. Investors who purchase bullion and mining stocks are a wild card, hard to predict. Keep in mind that the mining stocks are a small arena and could be completely dominated by the same amount of money currently invested in say Coca Cola.
2. See George S. Cole's excellent posts detailing why this market differs from the one's charted and graphed yesterday by the sceptics.

As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. Keep making us think!

The wise man sees trouble coming and hides himself, the fool goes on and is punished. I'm hiding my financial self behind bullion and mining stocks.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:12
Predictor @>(@):
Duncan: Didn't consider Silverado because I haven't read much on them. I do have the information sitting at my feet ( as I post ) and will peruse it. I have other companies in mine ( because I've been following them ) . I believe some takeovers are very possible in 1998.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:36
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Certainly not all who post here are still holding on to 800+ gold
but a lot have that figure in their mind--where do you think the $1000 or 2000 estimates are based on? With regard to making money over the last 2 decades it certainly could have been done with gold or copper or rhodium especially rhodium if only once. The rumoured shortage of silver is certainly 15 years old. Perhaps it would be about $2 if there was no shortage?

I wonder what the price of gold would be in 1980 dollars. Cars that I buy are up about 300% since 1980. Maybe gold in 1980 dollars is currently worth about $150?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:41
Prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
Mooney - As you suggested, I am a newbie, and didn't intend to step on anyone's handle. With your permission, I will continue to use Prognosticator but always with the Elliottwave address.
I think that I have identified a bull market termination pattern in gold called a 5th wave flat. If I am correct, gold will go down to about 338, basis the June contract, then up, with an initial target of 351, before a significant drop in price, then up again through late summer or fall.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:53
vronsky Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
I totally support George S. Cole's opinion that the current GOLD/DOW relationship today is more like that of the 1929-1935 and 1973-1974 periods. In each bear market of the Crashes, gold stocks appreciated hundreds of percent while the DOW was totally decimated. IMHO we have very similar conditions today for an encore of 1929-1935 and 1973-1974 market overtures.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 09:57
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:01
vronsky- that piece by Ted Butler is a MUST READ by every serious investor!! THANKS

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:04
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Vronsky: One missing condition for the 1929-1935 comparison is the US governments backing of gold's price. It must have had some effect on gold's price and also gold mining shares and their dividends. How does this effect the colors of the scenario you paint.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:05
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
Sorry, following URL is better - Please RELOAD Digest page:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:06
vronsky and George S. Cole- I also agree that the times we are experiencing are a prelude to the 1920-30 period and those of you that got the what it takes to buy gold shares might jest have what money is
when the dust settles to buy other things on sale!

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:09
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:10
Duncan- would you care to elaborate. I trade the JSE every day but try to limit my comments to stocks that are listed in the USA.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:29
panda @>(@):
Ray -- If you trade the JSE, could you tell what you think of Kloof mines. They've been pretty beaten up over the last year and a half. Are there fundamental reasons for this? Or is it a lack of interest in the SA gold stocks in general? Western Deep seems to be holding its own after the last plunge to $24+. I am totally clueless on Kloof. I can't even find any decent info on the 'net. Then again, maybe this is my answer?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:47
Lan Man Silver Companies>(Silver Companies):
Duncan: ie Silverado: From the Northeast Mining Investment conference, a report by John Doody - SILVERADO keeps raping its shareholders by issuing more stock in the form of options to insiders at below-market prices. These guys then sell their free-trading shares into the market, netting a handsome profit.

Yes, I know others do the same thing, and as a rule I try to stay away from them. If I own shares in a company that announces the type of double dealing as above, I dump them and go on.

Remember the 6 Ps - and People should be at the top of the list. Ross Beatty and Bob Quartermain are two that you can trust. Companies that they are involved in include: PAASF, SSRIF. Both are pure silver plays, and yes, other companies do mine alot of silver but I look at them as gold plays with a silver bonus.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:53
panda @weekend.stories>(@weekend.stories):
Some light Sunday morning reading.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 10:59
panda @>(@):
Last two stories on the list are in reference to Taiwan gold buying and Korean tensions. If no one is interested in this gold stuff, then why is everyone hiding and hoarding the stuff? We may look like loonies here ( sorry Canadians, no ref. to your money! ) for attempting to play this metals game, but others elsewhere in the world are doing it by the, 'bagfull'. It looks like the only bags that they'll be holding are ones full of gold and silver! BBML.............

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:15
Lan Man Just a minor delay, like 6 months!>(Just a minor delay, like 6 months!):
Panda: On the post of Russian delays dealers added that tension may persist through June until there is clear evidence that Russia, the biggest supplier, has begun a delayed 1997 export campaign.

Any further delays and the 1997 export campaign will be into 1998!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:26
Steve (Perth - Western Australia)>(
The second CB to raise rates since April. Considering the recent article about an average 4% rate rise over 2 years, get ready for more rate rises & market falls....The weapon in the Banks fiscal killing fields.

SYDNEY MORNING HERALD Monday, June 9, 1997
Bank of England lifts interest rates

The Bank of England has taken the first opportunity to show its newly acquired independence by increasing British interest rates by 0.25 per cent on Friday.

The increase, which comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been cutting rates, was made at the first meeting of the Bank of England's new monetary policy committee.

The bank increased rates to 6.5 per cent because of its concerns that the strength of the economy would put further upward pressure on inflation and overshoot the target maximum of 2.5 per cent.

This is the first time in its 300 years that the bank has been able to decide interest rates rather than the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The move to give the bank control over setting interest rates was one of the first decisions of the Blair Labour Government after its election on May 1.

The bank's decision - ahead of the Blair Government's first Budget on July 2 - shows its desire to carve out a reputation for being tough on inflation.

Until recently British financial markets have been treated to the embarrassing spectacle of the governor of the Bank of England going cap in hand to argue for an increase in interest rates each month, only to be rebuffed by a Chancellor whose primary concern was not to upset voters before the election.

The change has already led to a reduction in the premium paid by British borrowers on world financial markets compared to other European economies as international investors have become more confident that an independent Bank of England would be more vigilant in controlling inflation.

The bank's decision has come despite concerns that it may put upwards pressure on sterling.

Its new independence comes as Germany's Bundesbank - the most independent
central bank in the world - last week won its fight with German Chancellor Dr Helmut Kohl not to have the profits from the revaluations in the country's gold reserves included in the German Budget for 1997.

The bank was concerned the move was aimed at artificially boosting the German Budget for 1997 so the Government could meet Maastricht Treaty requirements for joining the single currency in January 1999 without taking tough action on the deficit. The battle ended in humiliation for Mr Kohl.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:42
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Golds price was regulated until 72, so at the time of the 29 crash the profits of gold mining stocks were guaranteed.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 11:44
P.R. Russia on borrowed time>(Russia on borrowed time):
Russia - the vacuum cleaner

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:09
bw Re: Mike Sheller, contracting>(Re: Mike Sheller, contracting):
Mike: After the implosion of our debt bubble, the values of gold will be known to almost everyone. With gold's chief value being that of honesty. The printing presses may roll big time or perhaps not. The end result will be the same. Within days weeks or months, the financial system will realize the value of all unsecured debt that is no longer politically useful, very close to zero.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:17
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V):
McAlvany’s MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: “THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE?” CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 12:57
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
You got the guaranteed price right Mr. Bear. I recall a $20 an oz guarantee. What is that in 1997 dollars. People worked for $5 a week during the depression, those that had a job. So by that standard gold was worth a months pay an oz. That means about $3500 an oz in 1997 if you put an average salary at $35,000 to $40000 a year. Anyone know the corect figures for todays average salary? Anyone think the US government is going to guarantee gold at a month's pay per oz if/when we have a crash.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:40
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:51
panda, Polarbear, etal- I sold all my SA shares except Blyvoors, before the quarterlies came out because I knew they would not be good. In the second quarter of 1996 we made a small fortune with the SA golds, then we had a fallin Rand and a stable to risin gold price the shares did quite well durin that time now we have the opposite and there is no reason to own them now. I traded in and out of Cons Modder three times for a varry nice profit. The SA mining industry is in another phase of consolidation
mergers and the like to try to keep profitable in this low gold environment. If the price ever starts to rise Blyvoors would have been the name to own but that is a changin and the new company could do verry well, I do not know that though yet, how the leverage will act. So that leaves Western Deep Levels. I have owned Kloof, my brokers pick, quite frankly I do not like it!

Lately I have been tryin to figure out which are the most leveraged mines and the way I do that is on days that the gold price moves up or down and the shares react I print out the Stock Smart chart that rates all the shares by % gain or %loss. So far those on my radar screen
Western Deep, still Blyvoors, Amax, Eldorado, PAASF, SSRIF etc.
I am still adding to tht list.

While I wait my largest junior position is in AZS, for obvious reasons.
Since there ain't no gold in the swanps of Borneo then the largest proven
reserve in the world is the properites held by Bema and Arizona Star and Bema has AZS up for sale. It don't take too much smart to figure out that one day soon one of them big mining companies can not stand it another day and will have to have AZS. Nuff said, lunch time!!

Tally HO

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 13:53
bw Just for fun>(Just for fun):
Get an arithmetic chart of the dow back to 1900 or so. Now since this is just a fun exercise lets not get too fussy about things like inflation or such. Stand back from the chart five or so feet. Stare at the chart for a couple minutes. What do you see? What I see is absolutely no long term support at all until 1000. Now I know this bull will never end. But should we start taking out the thousand point levels on the way down, there is nothing to stop us until 1000. We should get a decent long term bounce there.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:04
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:07
Speed Gov't vs. Mkt>(Gov't vs. Mkt):
Mr. Bear: The government did not ( and cannot ) guarantee the price of gold. They guaranteed the value of paper money by agreeing to swap it for gold at any time. Gold and silver coins were in circulation. Paper currency had Gold Certificate or Silver Certificate printed across the top. Prices of goods and services were effectively set in terms of gold. In the 30's government decided to confiscate gold and make it illegal for American's to own gold. This began the long process of unlinking paper currency from the historical standard. Wages have not increased as much as we think. A worker earning wages worth 1.5 to 2 oz. ( $30-$40 ) of gold per week in 1929, would have to earn $600 to $700 per week today for the same amount of gold, and there are many who would like to have a job paying that much! Gold hasn't changed, it's value hasn't changed, our paper has been greatly depreciated. Our perceptions have been altered.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:07
bw: Several other charts done in constant dollars indicate that your observation is not just probable but likely. One chart in particular was plotted in 1910 dollars from 1913 to the present. Every bull market in the intervening years ultimately corrected to the level of 1913 or lower. If and when this market does the same, that 1913 level would be around Dow 1400. If it overshoots to the downside, as is likely, you're Dow 1000 may even optimistic.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:08
I’m still lurking and learning. Hope to someday make worthwhile contributions to this group - the talent here is enough to make me keep my mouth shut and just try to learn for awhile. However, learning usually creates questions. I’ve read numerous posts from contributors who actively trade in and out of their gold mutual funds partially based on technical analysis of the XAU Index. Does anyone use some of the other sector indexes like the Amex XOI for energy funds, or the Amex Gold Bugs Index to help their fund timing decisions? Short Bull’s Rydex funds like: OTC Fund = NASDAQ 100 Index and Bond Fund = Long Treasury Bond Futures is what I’m hoping for. I would appreciate any opinions of what Indexes I should exam and what particular mutual funds may closely follow these indexes. I realize the stock bull is very long in the tooth, but are there some sector funds in addition to gold that may do well in the coming economic age? Thank you for your consideration.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:21
After lunch part II- sorry the mate was hollerin ya'll come, which means get your butt in here.

Another fine stock that I have noticed has leverage is Eldorado and has other merrits worth lookin at. They have jest recognized the value
or rather undervalued reserves in SA and jest bought some, the first American company to venture into South Africa. and D.A has convensed me to take a substancial position in Aurizon- good folks, plenty potential.
Another that has the same merits as Blyvoors is Hecla. When the crowd starts to move they will buy Hecla. Another on the leveraged list is PAASF.
I mentioned Cons Modder in the first piece. Gold in South Africa is not found in the nugget form as found in the western USA. It must be extracted from rock in a crushing and chemical process. But Cons Modder's
property has the highest gold values and closest to nugget form in
Africa. Cons Modder has jest been merged with Harmony. Now that could be a perfect combination, high gold values, goood management, plenty of capitol. Harmony and Durban Deep [Blyvoors merges with DD] are companies that deserve consideration by any serious investor.

Desert time!

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:23
Auric @home>(@home):

Surveyor: Hell, jump right in. I'm in the same
boat, I've just learned to go ahead and spout off. I
have developed a taste for shoe leather in the

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:25
Steve Puetz>(
Mike Sheller: US Treasury gold began disappearing in large numbers as early as 1931. That is, US citizens began converting their paper dollars into Treasury gold then. The reason the US suspended gold convertibility was because they were losing it. But remember, it wasn't the Treasury's gold. It was gold the Treasury held for the individuals who deposited it into the banking system. The Treasury broke their promise to return it.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:28
Steve Puetz>(
Eldorado: You make a good point. Gold shares are paper. That is one of the reasons I prefer gold coins over gold shares. Gold shares may do OK in the long-term, but why take the added risk of owning gold shares when you can have complete security in gold coins?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:31
Steve Puetz>(
Fundy: I base my $5000 + gold estimate on the amount of paper-debt outstanding throughout the world. The relationship between gold and credit outstanding is as low now as it was in 1971 -- when gold stood at $35/ounce. To get back to a normal relationship, gold must rise to thousands of dollars per ounce.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 14:37
Steve Puetz>(
Mr. Bear ( the guy who lives in a cave ) : I'm not quite sure where you stand on the markets. Are you bearish on everything, gold, silver, stocks, real estate, the economy, our society? I'm bearish on all of these except gold and silver. They are real money. You should be buying them. You may be the smartest of all by already living in a cave, though.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:00
GVC @Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts>(@Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts):
The weekly stochatic charts for FSAGX and FDPMX give a somewhat mixed picture. While the %k average has crossed the %d average a few weeks ago in FSAGX it has not done so in FDPMX, but one decent week will do the trick. Technically, both are still in oversold territory, and , as we know, can remain in an oversold condition, but me thinks were about to see some serious upside action. There is one stochastics support trendline on the FDPMX chart that the fund has tested 4 times over the last couple of years. Each time this support line has been touched by the %k line a significant rally has ensued usually 4 to 6 weeks of touching the line. We are presently at that moment.

Either we have a liftoff type of rally this week or we plunge again to test that line one more time. I'm betting on the upside mainly because FDPMX had a strong finish this week gaining over 2% in the last 2 days and finishing above last weeks close in what could be viewed as a reversal week.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:04
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Mr. Peutz: there is nothing normal about $35 gold. Just a price in time. My questions remain. How much is 350 gold worth in 1970 dollars and who believes the US gov will guarantee to pay a months wages for an oz of it?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:09
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
Given what the market is doing to a lot of us I think this joke, contributed by a fellow contributor to this line may be appropriate.

Two naked statues, a man and a woman, had been standing looking at
each other, in a park, for a hundred years. An angel came to visit them and said that since they had stood there so patiently through all the summers and winters, they would be rewarded by half an hour of human life to do what they had been wanting to do most.

So the two statues came to life, looked at each other, and laughed a
bit and said shall we? then, yes let's and they slipped off behind some bushes and there was a lot of rustling. After a quarter of an hour, they came out from behind the bushes all hot and flustered and happy. The angel said they had only used half their time and why didn't they start all over again. So the statues giggled a bit and the man statue said to the woman statue, OK, let's do it again, only this time we'll do it the other way around. I'll hold down the pigeon and you crap on it!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:22
Speed @home>(@home):
Surveyor: The Fidelity Select Energy Services fund has been dynamite the last couple of years. Start with the XOI but follow the news on things like offshore leases. Leases are expiring soon on many large parcels and the big companies have to drill or go through the whole bidding process again. No matter what the price of oil, drilling equipment is in high demand. This drives the earnings of the service companies. Of course one little hiccup in the middle east and look out. Hope this helps.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:51
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):

Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:52
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):

Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 15:53
M. Graves: I'm still concerned about our misunderstanding. I would like to apologize and address issue in greater detail off line. If you would send me you send me your email address, I would appreciate it very much. Thanks.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:17
Test @test>(@test):

Last post on my screen is 15:53.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:26
John Disney>(
For Panda
Further to Ray's comments, I agree fully on Western
Deep Levels. But I also feel that Durban Deep is severely
undervalued based on its low cost of reserves and capacity.
It is my favorite long term but it could have a little more
downside for the present. Harmony is also good paricularly
since it took over Unisel.
The problem with Kloof is that it is really 3 mines -
Kloof, Leudoorn, and Libanon. Kloof itself it excellent,
but Im sure the other two mines operate at a loss. If
the gold price went to say 425 for example the whole
complex would become profitable but when the price is
where it is the good operation has to carry the bad
parts of the company.
Beatrix is a great low cost mine - preferable
generally speaking to driefontein but not very exciting.
Fregold is also okay at the price. Avgold could be a
future winner but ONLY at a high god price.
In the Platinum sector, I like Lebowa or maybe PP
Rust as a second choice.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 17:34
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:01
Auric @suggestion>(@suggestion):

Surveyor: One idea would be to set up with a deep
discount broker and trade the individual stocks of a
particular index. It has been suggested here that
the HUI index stocks might be better than the XAU
due to less forward selling of gold in those stocks.
I think costs and simplicity would be similar.
Gives you the added advantage of no hidden costs
like 12-b, management fee etc. Might be worth

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:02
Duncan For: John Disney>(For: John Disney):
John - Do you know what,s happening with Barplats - what is the
possibility of it reopening in the forseeable future?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:02
REB na>(na):
Speed: very cogent comments about wages in gold equivalents since the 30's.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:15
Duncan To: Ray (10:10)>(To: Ray (10:10)):
Ray - will try and get some names for you ( I no longer live in S.A. ) .
Perhaps John Disney could help ( with some names of hedged S.A. gold
mining companies ) . The only South African gold company that I hold is
apparently about 50% hedged ( Joel ) .

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:22
Duncan To: Lan Man (10:47)>(To: Lan Man (10:47)):
Thanks Lan Man - I'm selling tomorrow!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:24
panda @>(@):
Ray and John Disney, thanks for the information!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:33
Jack Strange Times>(Strange Times):

These are very strange times and its very difficult to
find an answer.
On one side, the markets ( At least the Major Stocks ) are
doing extremely well.
On the other hand, I see young homeless families standing
on street corner's, with their Will work for Food
Last summer while on jury duty and walking in from my
parking area, I seen homeless people arising from their
nights sleep from every parking lot on the way to the
courthouse. The politicians love this, as it gives them
a platform to create a little fear, and subsequent power.
Thing's are not so good, but the government statistics
say otherwise. What hell is going on?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:39
Steve Puetz>(
Jack: You're right. Foreigners are going to bare the brunt of US financial losses. In the past, countries had to pledge gold instead of paper. Why foreign central banks have taken US paper in such large numbers is still a mystery. They must have more faith in our government than deserved. They will learn that our government has continually broken its monetary promises. Examples -- 1862, 1933, 1971, next time?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:46
Steve Puetz>(
Regarding wages and gold: Wages and gold have never had any direct link. There is no logical reason for them to have such a link. Traditionally, paper notes had been receipts for gold. That is why the relationship between the amount of paper in circulation and the amount of gold warehoused is critical. Over-issued gold receipts always led to bank-runs and Treasury-runs, which led to financial collapse. The over-issuance of financial paper in 1997 is one of the most extreme ever. That's why I believe gold must rise to at least $5000. Maybe even as high as $10,000 or $20,000.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:47
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


PANDA: Just ot let you know that you were dead on about the rise in Pal and Plat affecting the price of Oils. Apparently, they are used in the creation of High Grade gasoline. Thanks for the insite.

MOONEY: Congrats friend and take the next 25 one at a time... You know the strain the first 25 caused and you are getting older !! ( :- )

TED: Congrats on the 17 this year .... ROOKIE !!! ( :- )

TARNISHED: Isn't ti wonderful that the truly GREAT hockey players like SteveyY come from ONTARIO ! AND yes, they really do have Cehnehdehiehn citizenship even if they're born in BC ! ( :- )


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:50
Mike Sheller The Wages of Sin>(The Wages of Sin):
Wages vs Gold per oz cost might be misleading. Productivity, technology, etc, may have drastically altered our incomes relative to purchasing power of times past. We may all be better off. What is more to the point, perhaps, is what an ounce of gold will buy you. When an oz was $20 it bought ( roughly ) a decent man's suit, a nite out for a couple of couples at a nice restaurant, & perhaps a show, Or a few days at a modestly decent hotel. A $350 ounce of gold seems to do the same trick these days. If we're making more money, then it means we have more ounces of gold to enjoy. There has to be SOME progress in the Human Condition, eh? But gold has proven constant. What can you buy with a $20 bill

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 18:52
Steve Puetz>(
Jack: Regarding strange times. We must distingish between the financial condition of the US and the economic condition. The economic numbers that show consumption, production, and employment look great. The financial numbers look terrible. Bankruptcies are at all-time highs. Credit-card delinquencies are at records. People are borrowing to consume, but they can't pay their bills. This is an ominous sign.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:01
TED @front>(@front):
Front ( 18:47 ) Thanks Bro!...She must be a glutton fer
No more hockey for a while and will have to go and try and find a life..
MGraves: Wayne and the boys would have put up a better fight than Lingross and the Flyboys....and to think Eric thought he was too good fer Quebec....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:02
Mike Sheller CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies>(CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies):
Steve: Foreign Central Banks have taken such large amounts of US paper because the chairmen and directors of these international institutions act as a club among themselves. They have become more and more brazen in the manner in which they flaunt economic, market, and metaphysical reality. They have become emboldened to do what they do by the ignorance and declining standards of the mass of people, the press, and the economic professions themselves. And they do this all as though they were public servants smoothing the road that elected officials seem to be paving for us all. They are deluded, but we will all eventually suffer. Even an erstwhile ardent objectivist like Alan Greenspan has been lured into participation in the charade. The rubber band must needs stretch to breaking point. When it snaps, it will be most comforting to own some gold.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:06
Jack Goldminer's>(Goldminer's):

Steve Puetz: In relation to gold mining companies:
How do you see those companies with good current assets,
some in the form of bullion and having successful
production track records ( profits and/or cash flow ) , with
small to very small current liabilities?
I know that blue sky puts cash into the coffers of many
companies, by way of new issues, but the companies that I
like have some blue sky, but seem to want real results
before they decide the route they will take.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:10
Mike Sheller Up Up & Away>(Up Up & Away):
bw: I happen to have an arithmetic chart of the Dow since 1900. I get a nosebleed every time I look at it. Yes, 1000 is very nice support. This is the most incredible chart I think I've seen since gold went parabolic in '79. Rydex Ursa fund, anyone?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:10
George S. Cole Gold Bottom>(Gold Bottom):
Captain Bill at THE PRIVATEEER reports that gold appears to have bottomed in Austalian dollars. He is not sure that gold has troughed in U.S. dollars terms, but points out that the the yellow stuff tends to make a final low in Australian dollars before troughing in terms of greenbacks.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:21
I will tell you, after reading Ted Butler at gold eagle and The Privateer


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:32
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:37
Auric @home >(@home ):

George S. Cole @ 19:10- Re: Australian Dollar vs.
Gold: Is this the bottom you have been
anticipating? What are the things to keep an eye on

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:38
The Government Planner's Washington DC>(Washington DC):

Have no fear, we are here to help you on your trip to
UTOPIA. BUBBA has given us his word and we are

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:44
Spud Master Day of the Triffids>(Day of the Triffids):
Off topic: Would one of you living in B.C. mention a few lines about taxes and cost of living in Vancouver? I've got a contract situation there for good money - but I am wondering just how much the Cnanadian gov. will want. Might be better off living in this North Texas tornado infest, dusty hell. Thanks, Spud.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:46
Spud Master errors>(errors):
ps - sorry for the spelling errors in previous post - busy dodging twisters and sneezing : )

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:48
Mike Sheller 19:02: I reread that post 3 times and I still don't know how you did it; but you managed to speak whole volumes in one paragraph. Gently and succintly at the same time. Outstanding!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 19:49
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: If you bought an oz at $20 in 1930 and had put $20 in the bank the same day how many ozs could you buy with it today?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:08
Auric Impressed>(Impressed):

Mike Sheller @ 19:02- Well done. Deserves a spot at

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:18
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Speed thank you for your post 08:33. I agree there are other influences on the paper cost of gold. As a commodity, the jewelry producers are the largest influence of Price and Consumption of the yellow metal. Consumption is the key because most people are not going to melt down their jewelry in bad times. If we take Joe consumer out of the game all we are doing is moving gold from one vault to another storage vault and not taking it out of circulation.

Steve: I like silver!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:26
Speed Math Teacher!>(Math Teacher!):
Fundy: If you put $20 in the bank in 1930 at a constant 4%, compounded annually, you couldn't buy one ounce of gold! You would only have $276.86. You couldn't get 4% for most of that period on such a small amount, but I give you the benefit of the doubt. This is why bonds are such a crummy deal by the way!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:29
WDL @currencies>(@currencies):
Could be interesting for gold tomorrow...EBN Markets has Dollar down more than one percent ( 113.46 ) versus the Japanese Yen...Is repatriation far away?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:34
nailz @20 years ago today>(@20 years ago today):
ALL.... 20 years ago today silver closed @ US$4.45/oz. spot

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:34
panda @>(@):
Are some markets closed this evening? EBN commodities page doesn't seem to be updating.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:36
Speed help!>(help!):
Somebody please explain to me and Mr. Bear why jewelry people don't control the price of gold. I have an intuitive grasp of derivatives, and paper leverage, but don't feel comfortable attempting to debate. Also, please explain what happens when the leverage goes awry and the multiplier effect explodes the bullion price upward.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:37
Ken @Long time listener, first time caller>(@Long time listener, first time caller):

How are Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore doing?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:41
Was it that badly overpriced then, or is it that badly underpriced today It only went to US$45.00 in the next couple of years. HUMMMM

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:42
Steve Puetz>(
Mike Sheller: When the rubber-band snaps, it will be comforting to have all assets in gold and silver. The increasing rate of bankruptcies, defaults, and delinquencies ( all into record high territory ) suggests that the financial rubber-band is ready to snap any day.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:44
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*):
Inco is the world's largest producer of platinum group metals outside South Africa and Russia, providing about three percent of world supply.


IF platinum prices affect the oil complex, I think it will be seen in gasoline and not crude prices. Platimum is used 'post crude' in the refining process to increase the octane value of gasoline ( they call it platforming ) .

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:46
Steve Puetz>(
Jack: In normal times, gold mining shares should rise with gold bullion. My greatest concern now is that our credit-based financial system is collapsing. In this case, what will bankers do to mines that are heavily indebted? What will the government do tax-wise if gold mines are the only companies making a profit? I believe coins offer a higher level of safety than gold-shares, under these circumstances, even though the shares may also rise.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:46
To Ken in Kansas City Don't be nervous>(Don't be nervous):
That's a very interesting question, Ken. Can we get back to it after the break? We'll get back to Ken's question right after this message for Ginsana.

p.s. How about Luv your show? or Thanks for taking my call?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
Earl, here it is !! Ted: you've gotta sun burned seagull !!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
panda @>(@):
speed -- In the last few days I have heard the phrase, The forward markets have collapsed in palladium..., and nobody seems bothered by it! The forward markets are the futures markets. Clearly, derivatives can implode and no one could give a damn, except for my college professors of course! Thet would have flunked me out of school. :- ) )

Apparently, this is one school that you cannot flunk out of! That is, if you are the 'right' students! Think of the implications of what we are witnessing right now. The paper market isn't working in palladium. Debtors ( shorts ) are being given more time to pay their debt back. Clearly, a default has taken place before our eyes, except, that it hasn't, because that would be in bad taste. ;- ) ) George Orwell, where are you! Speak to me from the nether world!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:49
Tortfeasor Update>(Update):
According to gold and silver up smartly in the U. S. pm hours. No word on platinum.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:52
Tortfeasor Basketball break>(Basketball break):
Jazz need a rally in the second half to tie the series. Bulls up about 5 at halftime. Ted, are you out there? I'll send pony express later.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:53
Steve Puetz>(
Mr. Bear: I have no quarrels with you. I also believe silver coins are a better buy than gold coins. But both will do very well. The Bellmont got the order in reverse yesterday. Silver will be most charming, gold will be a touch behind. However, for wealthy investors, the portability of gold, and its image, makes it the preffered investment. Poor-man's-gold -- silver -- will outperform just because it is more undervalued than gold right now. When I say gold, by default, I usually mean both gold and silver. They both have a long monetary history.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:56
Steve Puetz>(
Tortfeasor: Is there any good source of overnight quotes on the Internet? The Dollar is falling against the Yen, gold and silver are up. How about S&P 500 futures?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
Ken What?>(What?):

Kansas City? I was asking about the Far East.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
D.A. pick.your.banks.carefully>(pick.your.banks.carefully):

If you had put your twenty dollars in a German, Japanese or Italian bank or many others you would have 0. Just because the USA has come out on the right side of a few world wars and has by and large been the most stable and powerful country over the last 70 years doesn't mean this will always be so. While I don't mean to suggest that the downfall of the US is immenent, the stability of the banking system worldwide is in some doubt. The outcome might not be catastrophic in an economic sense, but it may well be so for bond holders. There are any number of countries that may find it easier to just walk from their debts. The South Americans did it en masse not too long ago, why not the Italians, the Belgians, or even gasp, the Japanese.

Holding gold or other physical commodities is just a hedge. The relative value of these things remains fairly constant over intermediate time with relation to the cost of other goods and services. As an investment vehicle, one would hope that the value would appreciate with respect to other goods and services. The case can be made that some commodities are extremely inexpensive based on a number of fundamental concerns. Silver, for one seems to fit well in this category. The grapevine is starting to buzz with respect to this one. It is not a time to be short.

Early levels in the Pa market are 200 - 250. Looks like Nasdaq market makers.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 20:59
Organ @defaults>(@defaults):
Headline in the Chicago Sun-Times for Friday: Hospital swallows $1 billion worth of debt

- this debt was accumulated from 8 years of patient defaults. This money has to be made up by Cook County taxpayers. A few more of these and the Steve Puetz scenerio may be upon us!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:01
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Looks like it's anti-american night overseas, U.S dollar taking a pounding or should I say a Yenning. Gold and Silver up !!!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:01
EWP Question for Steve P.>(Question for Steve P.):
Steve P. - Where would you recommend purchase Silver Maple Leafs and other gold and silver coins ( U.S. and Aussie equivalents ) . I live in the U.S.? Thanks for any help.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:03
panda @>(@):
Steve Puetz -- I agree with your assertion that 'tangibles' in your hands are the best form of 'insurance'. The world is piecewise linear. We will not go to stratopheric heights in one day. Initial disbelief in the movement in the metals, as seen in palladium, then a 'hmmm', and in to mining shares they go. Once the metals move up sufficiently, the incremental profit increase, slows markedly in the mining companies.

What most are looking for, IMHO, is the added initial leverage available through options, futures, and stocks. If things are perceived as heading too far 'south', the physical will be the only place to be. If there are any doubters, just look at the palladium 'forward markets' and judge for yourself. The 'final' outcome here, will be very interesting indeed.

Rhodium anybody?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:04
Steve Puetz : go

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:06
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals. Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:07
BIG TRADER Thoughts>(Thoughts):
Is this news? Can this be true?
“ “ Now that the “discount bid at spot” is running 3 or 4 to one
you can be real sure retail isn’t going to reach for it! They would
start a free for all! But they have to bid, it isn’t going to come
from the sky. No wonder the big holders are “standing
down”! How are they going to handle the paper that the Asians
are trying to sell? That’s a good one, because they hold physical
to paper at 20 to 1 and spot will go thru the roof if they dump it!
Well, with a roll-over of most existing deals being the only option, a
good deal of “old forward gold paper” will be put on the street
at whatever price. Nobody is going to pay par for this stuff when
it was written at a premium to spot during a much higher price.
And now that new supply can’t be pulled from retail to cover the
paper the writers are the only bidders for their own stuff. But if
any of it trades at a big discount, it’s going to hammer what‘s left
to the point that the banks will call the loans! If one big boy
grabs the physical during the next month or so it’ll take the
whole thing down. “ “

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:09
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals. Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:10
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor -- Just what I needed, another bookmark! :- ) )

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:12
Organ @ Chicago>(@ Chicago):
Steve Puetz: Try

For Chicago futures prices around the clock. Japanese Yen UP against the USD, Swiss and Mark less so. S&P's and currencies at this site.

I've enjoyed your essays very much, Steve. Your thinking is sharp, but after the Leviathan Bull rally on Friday it looks like it will take yet more time to happen. My friend in the bond pits here has suggested that the Chinese were big buyers of T-bonds on Friday ( there was also alot of short covering ) . If the Chinese have been coerced to buy U.S. debt ( amazing -- the Chinese are usually not effectively bullied on anything ) then Clinton's imperial cycle of high budget and trade deficits, balanced by high speculative inflows can continue. I'm going to stop betting against this stock market until I can see that interest for U.S. debt has dried up.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:15
ALL....One thing most have omitted....While I am a proponent of the grassroots movement in gold and silver ( many own instead of few as in the past ) most of you project a majical upwards movement which will look like an immediate upwards prolonged movement on the charts....That will not happen ( barring calamity ) . Major stops must be made along the way to absorb the massive physicals bought lower in the grassroots effort and sold at various benchmarks along the way...They are taking their profits along the way until most of that is reclaimed into the strong hands...Paper collapses ( major stock and/or bond collapses ) could prevent that from happening.... i.e. no cash to repurchase the grassroots metals ( thence no major move upwards ) . Think again.. Do you really want a paper collapse NOT ME...Give me the ebb and flow of the usual cyclial economy, thank you !!!!! I would like to do it as I did in 1980 and again in 1982/83.....

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:15
Steve Puetz @ defaults>(@ defaults):
Organ: The only difference this time is that defaults are occurring at a time when the economic stats are good. Unemployment is low, consumer confidence is high. That's why it's important to differentiate between economic stats and financial stats. The financial situation is collapsing globally.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:19
Steve Puetz @ EWP>(@ EWP):
Two long-established precious-metals dealers are Investment Rarities in Minneapolis, MN ( headed by Jim Cook ) @ 800-328-1860 and Blanchard Metals ( headed by Jim Blanchard ) @ 800-880-4653. I think Jim Cook is a little more honest than Jim Blanchard, though. Although they are both good businessmen.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:20
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:21
Auric @In it with both feet>(@In it with both feet):

Steve Peutz @ 20:53- If I read Ted Butler, you, and
John Templeton correcly, those who are holding gold
now should hold on to it? I just bought a

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:23
Steve Puetz @ PANDA>(@ PANDA):
Physicals are being affected by spreaders. ( See Barron's article this week-end ) Gold-platinum spreaders sold platinum - bought gold. They are getting margin calls, and liquidating. This action is temporarily pushing up platinum, and holding down gold. Once the spreads are unwound, gold will begin to skyrocket as well.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:24
Steve Puetz @ NJ>(@ NJ):
NJ, Thanks for the info. I will check it out.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:27
auroelf a good book>(a good book):
May I recommend The History of Money, by Jack Weatherford, a financial anthropologist. Start with chapter 6, The Golden Curse, then read the whole book front to back. Very interesting development of the evolution of money; man created it in all its evolutionary forms, but our society is also being recreated by it. Interestingly, in a very broad sense, it covers the generally same territory as The Sovereign Individual, which I have been trying to read since Strad recommended it. Sovereign is so depressing that I keep putting it down; The History of Money was such fun I kept picking it up. Both see the end of nation-based paper money as we have known it, replaced by stateless international cyberfinance, in a system that requires new skills and flexibility. But Weatherford has no ax to grind or service to sell, while the authors of The Sovereign Individual do. I view the latter book with great scepticism.
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a recognized medium of exchange again, except as any other commodity might, for specific uses. Much food for thought.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:36
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Steve I personally like pre 1965 90% junk. Each coin contains 90% silver and 10% alloy . $1,000.00 face value contains 714 oz of content in pure silver. If you are taking delivery this is the cheapest way to own silver.
You can buy the silver for a few cents below spot and delivery runs about $26.47 US mail insured for each 714 oz.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:48
QT @>(@):
Puetz, Cole, Speed, Vronsky, Bear, Mike Sheller, others
Perhaps just a curiosity, but lately Mining Stocks have behaved as if they were the empathetic housewife in the household Gold. You've got to picture Gold as a tempermental Tenor who moves about his house singing Italian Operas. When Gold moves upstairs to the balcony, into higher atmospheres, in search of cleaner more rarified airs, she whiplashes aside Gold, stands on his sholders and does somethig akin to a victory jig for the listening impaired up there for all the neighbors to see, least there be any doubt as to her husbands mood. She intends to amplify.
When Gold's mood darkens, his temper slouches, she's to be found clutching at Gold's ankles, sobbing, and cannot be consoled. Gold can be seen dragging her across the linoleum, as we speak... will somebody please call the police,,,
If and when, in all probability when is the operand, when Gold makes a move, I would predict the same or similar habit by this sensitive damsel. Mining stocks can be said to ride the whip of golds movement. The two are inextricably related, and of late this has been their relationship. At least thats what the neighbors have been saying. Hedges and hysterics aside the jist of what I'm saying here is the rule rather than the exception.
Hope I've got this site right,,,primitive but true, lately,,,
And as for Silver,,, Sheller called it months ago, now you players out there can either ride or watch. Surf's goin' ta be up in the next 30 days. You can either catch the Kahuna you've been waiting for, or stay on the beach with your Polariods,,,let the ears listen.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:55
Kid Silver _>(_):
MR. BEAR - You may have mentioned before. Where do you get these
prices on junk silver?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:57
D.A. the.rumor.mill>(the.rumor.mill):

The latest rumor that I have heard on the silver market has one fund short to the tune of about 60MM oz. Stops are supposedly somewhere around 490 - 500 basis July. Combine this with another rumor of a large OTC option expiring soon at $5.00 and the potential for fireworks is large. Who knows whats fact or whats fiction, reality is that lease rates are jumping and someone or many are bidding aggressively for physical metal.

Last quotes I have in Pa are 215 - 250, Pl 470 - 510. Yen trading around 113. August gold around 347.10.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:59
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - In your opinion. Which is better Junk Silver, Silver
Eagle Coins or Collectable Coins?


BTW I really enjoy reading your column at Gold Eagle.
How about an article on silver?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:00
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Kid Silver

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:04
I sure do miss the old gold and silver price board that used to grace the top of this page.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
Stockton and Malone ... go on with your bad selves!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:14
Tortfeasor Basketball update>(Basketball update):
Jazz come back and win. Mailman delivers big time. Series tied 2-2. Now its time for gold to come back and win.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:15
HRK1 @great.white>(@great.white):
Sadly, I, too, miss the old gold and silver board posted here. Can it not be added onto these quotes for palladium and platinum Anyways, I thought this was a forum to primarily discuss Gold!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:18
Guzman @Fell for it>(@Fell for it):

D.A., Bungles happen in high places. Brei cheese is
very in these days.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:23
EWP To Steve P.>(To Steve P.):
Thanks ( I'll definitely check out Blanchard ... I have some information some where ) . Do you have any comments ( or anyone else ) about Monex?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:25
I miss the gold and silver ticker too! I hope it is just a temporary thing. All on one ticker would be nice.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:27
Tortfeasor Joke for Ted>(Joke for Ted):
Anybody have any word on platinum prices this evening or is Europe and the USA the only ones who need the white stuff? Since I imagine Ted is celebrating the Jazz whoop'n of the Bulls with a bit of brew I thought he could use the following story.

Two drunks are driving down the highway, drinking their beer. All of a
sudden the driver notices lights flashing in his mirror; the cops are on
his tail.

His buddy says, What are we going to do? The driver says, Don't
worry. Just do exactly what I tell you and everything will work out

First, peel the labels off our beer bottles and we'll each stick one on
ourforehead. Then shove the bottles underneath the seat, and let me do
the talking.

They pull over and the cop walks up to the car. He looks at them kind
of funny, but asks to see the guy's driver's license. And he asks
him, Have you been drinking?

Oh, no, sir, the driver replies.

I noticed you weaving back and forth across the highway. Are you
'sure' you haven't been drinking? the cop asks.

Oh, no, sir, the drunk answers. We haven't had a thing to drink

Well, I've got to ask you, says the cop, What on earth are those
things on your forehead?

That's easy, Officer, says the drunk. You see, we're both
alcoholics, and we're on the Patch!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:27
Steve Puetz- your info on Jim Blanchard is incorrect. His company is
Jefferson Coin and Bullion, Jefferson Financial 800-877-8847.
He sold Blanchard & Co. several years ago to GE.

Tally Ho

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:40
Ken is it goin up or down>(is it goin up or down):

Just read Two Down, Two To Go, on Gold-Eagle. I
would like any gold bear to refute the points made
by the author.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:40
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
Tort ( 22:27 ) Good drunk joke...burp...Whatta comeback win fer the JAZZ!! The Dollar is down 1% versus the YEN tonight...

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:44
I have great respect for the gold analysts on this site and at Golden Eagle. However to ensure that we are not fighting the last war in our view of the current situation I will propose a different scenario for gold and siver.

I suggest that bullion will lead gold stocks in the next market and both will do spectacularly whether there is a stock market crash or not.

The reasons for this are essentially two fold. Firstly, bullion will skyrocket for all the reasons that Ted Butler has documented. However, even he may be too conservative in his outlook for one simple reason. Much of the existing stockpiles of gold and silver may have already been loaned out. For example, while statistics indicate aboveground stockpiles of 450 moz of silver it is NOT known much of that has been loaned out. The end could be a lot closer than we think, particularly if there has been asian investment hoarding going on, providing a ready market for those who wish to convert borrowed metal to cash as part of some derivitives program.

Secondly, as many have mentioned here, finacial inflation over the last two decades means that precious metal assets ( bullion and stocks ) are a small fraction of total financial assets. Suppose Fidelity decides that to preserve it's market share it should start to emulate Tiger Fund - not to mention George Soros.

I will contend the Tiger Fund's sucess makes massive investment hoarding a credible strategy for major financial players. Big Trader may have gotten in first but I doubt that he will be last. Given the over extension of current financial markets, this could be the only politically safe way to make a few quick bilions. Soros could short a currency but could wind up being crucified both finacially and politically in a political climate much less lassez faire than a few years ago. On the other hand, since conventional wisdom states that gold is obsolete who should care if it skyrockets?

Given the current climate in the markets, if things start to really move in gold and silver they may have their own mania. In fact, a stupendous surge in precious metals may be the final act of the current financial mania! In this case the metals could parabolic spectacularly but have a shorter life span.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:45
MoreGold @relationships>(@relationships):
This quote from James Dines:
We urge you to keep in mind Dinesism #10, the Dines Wolfpack Theory, predicting that the four precious metals tend to move together ( gold, silver, platinum, palladium ) and the fact that the latter two are rising strongly suggests that strength in gold and silver is imminent.

If the pa & pl rally holds and is for real, this should just be a matter of time.
D.A.: enjoy your updates, keep them comming.
Steve Peutz, agree with you, when the rubber band snaps, the Gold rally
should be sharply vertical. I like your price target, non of this 410. or 450.
Market may be starting to price the pa pl factor in, one of the Gold calls I own was up 40% intra-day from Thursday to Friday.
Speaking of inflation, I priced a pickup truck in 1991 at approx. $C13000. Today the same runs around $25000. I think this is a little more
than the 2.5% we keep hearing......

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:51
Steve Puetz @ Ray>(@ Ray):
Ray, thanks for correcting me. I though Blanchard Co. and Jefferson Coin were essentially one and the same. Guess I was wrong.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:53
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
This could not be true? More?
So many off market forward gold deals were done without
any gold changing hands! Big buyers got on the paper side
of these things and thought that the CB’s were backing the
dealer banks by written contract. If the mines couldn’t
perform the banks would .......! But what if in some deals
the mines were not involved at all ? Just off market option
trades as backing? And some of the paper buyers shorted
the futures in a big way to cover . And now whatever gold
that was to back these deals is found to be “not there”?
And everybody was looking at all this paper being sold
and thought there must be one hell of a lot of gold being
Now during the last six months the price has fallen, but
I have to ask, “who has got who”?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:02
Steve Puetz @ auroelf>(@ auroelf):
Gold has one big ( no, huge ) advantage over paper-money and cyber-cash. Gold requires no promise of future payment. I disagree with Jim Davidson on the coming role of cyber-cash. Increasingly, monetary promises are going bad and being defaulted on. A 25 years history for paper-money and 2 year history for cyber-cash do not qualify as time-tested. Thousands of years for gold and silver qualify as time-tested money.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:04
Steve Puetz @ reply to DA>(@ reply to DA):
More than just rumor, CFTC commitment-of-traders report shows large short position by futures speculators -- 30,000 contracts. In over-night trading, gold open up $.10 higher. Latest quote is now $1.60 higher. Dollar is crashing.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:06
GFD Who Indeed>(Who Indeed):
Big Trader: Who got who? It may be retail ( jewelers, etc ) anxiously contemplating their efficient just in time inventory systems that may just have ran out of time. I agree with Ted Butler that all this paper has sent markets the wrong ( but convieniently politically correct ) signals leading some down the garden path.

As for the deals that you are talking about I suspect that they will be quietly wound down - with the helpful assistance of the central banks. That is, the deals will be essentialy canceled out.

The real question is what will be seen in the markets once this obscuring cloud of paper dissappears

Yellow palladium anyone

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:08
Steve Puetz>(
Kid Silver: Junk silver and silver eagles are both OK. Stay away from collectibles. They monetary value of collectibles is way below what you will have to pay for them. I explain some of this in my book Total Collapse -- just released. If your are interested in ordering it, call Newsletter Systems at ( 888 ) -639-7587.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:08
QT @>(@):
Big Trader & GFD Two thumbs up ! Not that this takes away from the predominant mix here, just adds spice.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:09
Little Trader @Bigtrader>(@Bigtrader):
Big Trader is big BS....hahahaha

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:23
Steve Puetz>(
Big Trader: Central Banks cannot push gold lower forever. First, they have grossly over-issued paper in relation to their gold. Second, they have loaned out too much of their gold. ( platinum past 2 weeks is an example of what happens when metal-loans are called in -- Platinum shoots from 2 year low to a 7-year high within a few weeks time. ) Third, central banks have already lost too much of their gold -- they only control about 20% of world's gold now. 50 years ago they had well over 50% of it.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:24
QT @>(@):
Hey Puetz, get real with the Kid. A good doctor would perscribe he take 2 COMEX Futures Contracts in the morning and call you in 30 days if the ache for silver hasn't been replaced with a Total Collapse of his fear of the market. Totally,,,

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:29
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):

Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by the Oracle of Alberta:

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:31
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Steve Puetz :

Steve, busy boy tonight... 22 posts later and you're getting like dear old EARL... have an opinion once in a while will ya ! ( :- ) ) ) )


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:32
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
GFD & Steve: Good write.

When we “wound down” and “cancel out” smallest part of
this paper market it take out comex and otc paper completely!
Then you must settle several hundred million ozs with london.
The ability of the entire worldwide gold mining and trading
community to sell a product will be destroyed in short time.
The metal market as we know it from 1968 will end !

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:36
Steve Puetz>(
QT -- Gold and silver have always moved in the same direction since both gold was un-pegged to the Dollar in 1971. I like both gold and silver now. It's just that I like silver better because the gold-silver ratio is out-of-whach at 75-to-1. Gold is about 8 times rarer than silver. If monetary demand re-emerges for both, their price differential should be proportional to their scarcity -- that is gold should be about 8 times higher than silver.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:38
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
More Gold: I don't know about the Canadian statistics, but I have been told that the U.S. Gov't view is: So what if the 1997 Batmobile costs 20% more than the 1996 Batmobile. It is 20% better, so its contribution to inflation is 0%.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:39
Bigger Trader>(
The XAU will be at 130 by June 20th.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:39
madog 1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996>(1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996):
Hi guys. I have a custome indicator which i designed some time ago to help me in my trading decisions. it seems to work quite well in all markets and i thought I'd share what it is telling me re the gold market. After
a long convergence begining in the middle of 1996 and leading up to May 1997, the indicator has finally broken over in to the BUY zone based on the weekly gold chart. It is the first time the indicator has entered the buy zone since late December 1995.

Translation-------------- TREND IS GOING TO CHANGE SOON!!!!!!

Touch Gold and Silver Charm winning the Belmont Stakes!!!

Could only mean one thing. Happy trading

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:41
Steve Puetz>(
Front -- It's my first time on a chat page. I've had the Internet for a couple of years, just never used it. I've had some free time this weekend. I though I'd try the chat page -- Now I'm hooked!! It's been fun.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:41
Mr.Bear - That U.S. postal service must be amasing! Are you serious that you can have about 50 POUNDS of Silver mailed to you for only about $26. in postage! Tell me that they throw in free insurance at these rates also!
Auroelf - Do you SERIOUSLY belive this modern world e-mail script B.S. will totally replace hard money in our not-too-distant future?
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance
leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was
previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point
of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a
recognized medium of exchange again,...
Have you comprehended even a fraction of information given to you at this site?
Front - Thanks again and thanks for the heartfelt advice. Can't wait to retire to Calabogie ( or some such place ) and start washing dishes! :- )
Ted - Next Year for N.Y.? Wish I could even remember my 17th!
Prognosticator @ 9:41 - Go ahead! ( Sounds much more official than predictor - doesn't it? ) But do me a favour and post as Prognosticator 2 just so's no one mixes up with the original. :- )

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:42
Little Trader @bigtrader>(@bigtrader):
Big Trader is BIG BS...hahahaha

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:46
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Steve Peutz re 23:41 & Mooney :

No kiddin' .... does get addictive doesn't it. The great thing is that there are as many opinions as people but everyone seems willing ot listen ( at least until they disagree haha ) . Enjoy ...

Mooney: I remember my 17th....I had hair then !!!!!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:46
Auric Ready>(Ready):

Three posts from BT in one night. Are you strapped

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:47
Biggest Trader>(
Little Trader is little BS. HoHoHo

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:48
The Government Planners Washington, D.C.>(Washington, D.C.):
1997 Batmobiles are 25% better than 1996 Batmobiles. The 20% increase in Batmobile prices in 1997 means than prices have gone down 5%. Batmobiles have a 5% deflationary effect on CPI.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:48
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: What's eight years....just a blip in time!...I hope Rangers will do it next year but they gotta make some moves...

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:50
Biggest Big Trader @smallertraders>(@smallertraders):
Yer all full of it!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:51
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Just a blip in time eh! Trust me, it all depends on who you spend it with my lad !!!!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:52
QT @>(@):
Steve P.,,,,,,, I'm sorry if I sounded a bit gruff, you needn't get defensive. I value your contributions here a great deal. You have my upmost respect. BUT. Steve. Do the Kid a favor and let him get onboard this one. The next ninety days will make a man of him. You suggest, silver being 1/8 as scarce as gold, that there is at least a price correction for the fairer metal in the wings.Others use the weight differential, Sheller, and others still can see the writing on the inventory to contract ratios walls. The bottom line here isthat Silver is a great big GO, GREEN LIGHT.

These Russians are helping drive home a point the Kid should be exposed to. Maybe you should take this conversation to an E-mail level withhim and give him some advise of value. Whether or not the advise conforms to the thesis of yor TC, which I will get but haven't yet, follow through on your obligations. If you choose to advise DO IT.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:53
Panda @20:49: Your comments regarding the collapse of the PL futures market are not receiving enough attention IMO. We are indeed watching a major default and yet most are ignoring the implications of it. Or perhaps that it is even a default at all. Maybe the big players are so confident of their positions with the banks and govts that can afford to remain serene and unconcerned. The real question in my mind, is how govts will react to what should be just collossal mistake on the part of players who should be allowed to swallow their own mistakes. I'm really concerned about the early appeals by Dresdner Bank, for example, to the US for relief via a release of PL/PA from US strategic stockpiles. Merely to relieve the suffering of some who suddenly find themselves on the wrong side of a major swing. ... Of course if the US does decide to do it, we will only know about it after the fact. If at all.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:54
Tiny Trader>(
Hey Biggest of Big Traders. SH! SH! SH! SH! SH!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:56
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):

Mooney -United States Postal Service 1-800-222-1811 They are open 24hrs, give them a call. 50lbs $3,500.00 insured with return receipt = $25.95 and they come to your front door.

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:58
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


$25.95 and they come to your front door

Should I leave the light on? I'm going to bed before they arrive !!!


Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:59
EWP - RE: Monex inquiry. E-mail any questions you may have.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:07
Trying to understand: BT @21:07. .... Without forming a value judgement as to its validity; I do not do not understand the trader's description of what are apparently current market conditions. If there is someone here who can decipher and expand on it, I, for one, would appreciate it very much.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:13
madog - Thanks! Louis 16th getting closer - I can feel it!
Steve Puetz - I disagree. I believe Silver will settle in at the very long term historical relationhip of about 16 /1.
All - With the marked increase of commentary about Silver here I believe that it can be taken as another indicator that Silver is about to have the marked increase that most here are predicting, and very soon at that. I remember about a year ago, those of us that even mentioned Silver or the Gold/Silver relationship were in a very small minority and some of the pundits were even expousing the favourite brainwashing line of the financial community that Silver is no longer a monetary metal and only an industrial one. AAR - to make another of my long stories short - I decided that all the Silver talk lately was a definite sign. Further Mr. Sheller ( one of the local interpreters of signs ) mentioned July looks good for Silver. So I thinks to meself - July not that far away, something funny happening with other white metals, what should I do? Kept thinking and then all of a sudden - Whammo - the family and friends throw a SILVER wedding anniversary for Mr. and Mrs. MOONEY ( at this point I should repeat MY previously stated interest in Silver and the fact that others have reported here that the MOON is the celestial object which represents Silver ) . Others here say grab some physical metal. 'Good idea' I say to myself and today ( Sunday afternoon ) I set off to the local mega-mall where I know a certain coin shop has a large supply of pre-'66 Canadian halfs and dollars for good prices. Store has been there as at least 15 years. Haven't been to that mall in couple months. Store gone. Sure hope Silver doesn't open limit up and start a panic before I make my Mooney purchase!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:23
Auroelf @21:27: The ultimate formation of a cybercurrency, of course, would depend for its long term stability, on the same thing as paper. That is that the issuer is able to hold greed in check and restrain an uwarranted expansion. The recent past is not a source of comfort. That doesn't mean they will not try it. ..... BTW. Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:34
Mooney @GFD>(@GFD):
BTW - I agree in general with just about everything GFD says in his June 8 @ 22:44.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:38
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; or close the wall up with our dead........ for there is none of you so mean and base, that hath not noble lustre in your eyes...... I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. The game's afoot.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:41
Mooney @23:41: I think Auroelf was quoting the opinion of the author, rather than expressing an opinion of her own.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:45
RJ: ...... the fox has taken flight and the hounds bay loudly. ... with apologies for the intrusion into yer swell pome.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:49
Auric home>(home):

RJ: I say gold will touch $400 before $325. Agree
or disagree?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:54
Reify @adding points>(@adding points):
Further to GFD yest.22:44, I wish to add the following ideas;

From my studies of historic basing patterns, the last 17 weeks, should break out sharply from these levels for the next couple of months.

The ratio of XAU to spot that Kaplan uses in his daily analysis, states that when the differential is below 260 it begins getting bearish and above bullish. Now 244. This indicator should now start adjusting to the upside, which should confirm GFD's theory of bullion leading the stocks to the upside.

In any case we should start feeling some more pleasurable emotions in the near future. How much crying can these souls take?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:58
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy):
Front:I prefer to think, Great hockey players come from Canada...
Sorry quebec.....but that was my bid for national unity....and the Rocket
and Lafleurs were Canadians then.
BTW...What a class act Stevie was, his first comment was not for his cup victory but for how amiss things are without Don Cherry present....
Lets see another athelete demonstrait that kind of selflessness!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:59
RJ (I like a sure bet)>((I like a sure bet)):
Nay $325 - although it as is likley as not. $335 half a dozen times before $400 once. Prior courtesy: Henry V....

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:59

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:01
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl):
Earl - I hope so, for her sake!
Silver Futures Traders - All of our optimism aside, Fridays chart does not look great given the highs and then the weak close. Look at Bart's 24 hour spot chart. One thing I have noticed in the past is that regardless of weekend action, New York almost always has some trading at the opening very close to Friday's close. If this happens this morning at the opening and considering the U.S. dollar weak against Yen overnight, then it may be a good 'window of opportunity' to pick up some Silver if that's one's intentions. Good Tradin' in '97!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:01

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:21
Auric Philanthropy 101>(Philanthropy 101):

RJ @ 00:59- What about $420 Gold between now and
Dec.31, 1997? Am I gonna owe $420 to charity, or is

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:21
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Thank you Speed. I should have said $20 of 1930 gold and $20 worth of 1930 DOW.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:22
Tommorrow the NYMEX raises the margin requirements on PL and PA. Does
anyone have an idea what effect this will have on the market?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:30
Madog - My earlier message of -thanks! - to you although brief was not meant to be sarcastic but was a sincere comment. You were sharing the fact that according to your system, ( without going into details ) , the trend is about to change. I sincerely appreciated that post. I try and listen to the comments of all who post here and then add and subtract them all up and see where and how it affects my perceptions of what's happening. My Louis the 16th comment is in reference to the fact that I have said that when I feel the Gold market has finally bottomed I will post a certain quote from Louis 16th that I feel is pertinant to the situation that we have been experiencing for the last year or so. I have said I will post this comment when I feel the Gold market changes direction. In other words I was agreeing with you that we may almost be there. :-0
I have been sarcastic recently with only one participant that I know of and that is a person who many times in the last year has been very rude and often attacked other participants just for the fun of it. He even has made up falsehoods and lies and stated such as facts here to create dissention. This weekend his lies were so gross that if I had the time and inclination, ( and I guess it would help if I lived in the States as that's where he does ) , I would sue the person for slander.
BTW - Most of us Canucks would appreciate it if you would let us know via a timely post when your indicator says that the Canadian dollar is finally about to reverse and head north! :- )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:38
Mooney @kuston>(@kuston):
kuston - The normal effect - all other things being equal - is that the commodity would experience downward pressure. Of course if sentiment and buying power outweigh this effect the market can still keep motoring in the same direction. Raising the margins is one device that the exchanges can use to influence the markets downwards but of course the primary purpose is to ensure against defaults by participants.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 01:41
Speed - thank you for your Sunday, 15:22, re: XOI vs. Fidelity Select Energy Services.

Auric - thank you for your Sunday, 18:01 re: HUI vs. a basket of the individual gold mining stocks with a deep discount broker.

Wish I wasn't trading Keogh funds; otherwise I would just go for the bullion with most of you!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:03
Roebear @Hersheypark>(@Hersheypark):
BT Your syntax has changed wonderfully; have you been spending a lot of time lately stateside or do you now have your very own USA interpreter? Better slow down and remember your roots.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:05
Mooney @Silver>(@Silver):
Thought I'd check Bart's 24 hour Silver chart before I hit the sack and sure enough it's dropped like a rock. If it stay's there it should be the exact opening that I was talking about in my 1:01 !

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:12
Lan Man Whats This?>(Whats This?):
Looking at the Kitco Silver Lease Rates History - looks like something changed in the markets around May 29th. See http:///silver.leaserates.html
At the same time Forward rates went down.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:15
Test @Test>(@Test):

Would like to hear Vieserre on BT. Is this the real
deal that posted last night?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:16
Mooney - I'm new to this game but my first thoughts were that it would
shake out the speculators. Their % returns would will be less then they
use to be. Applying that to the PL/PA market : I think alot of money
has been made already, how much is left at these levels? That would lead
me to think everyone left really want the stuff and have the money. I
don't think the long side will change. The short side I don't know about.

Has anyone followed the open interest in PL/PA for the end of the year?
Dec/Feb98? There sure is a large open interest? If I was walking
in the Tiger's funds shoes I would have alot of futures contracts spread
out as far as I could. Then I would start acquiring all the metal I
could. I wouldn't be selling anything until I had collected on the
contracts. If so, then these are really cheap right now. Any comments?

Mooney 01:01: silver still closed above the 18 day MA. So I'm still long.

Earl: Yes I don't understand BT's first post. What metal is he talking
about? Gold? I thought the Asains were buying not selling. I look
forward to an explaination.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:27
Jack Good Material>(Good Material):

Steve Puetz: Thanks for the many fine posts and the
searching direct answers.
Speed: Forgot to ask Fundy how much of the $277 he would
have left after taxes.
Fundy: Wish that my dad had bought a farm on Long Island
in 1950, even after property taxes and special
assessments - never mind the $20 ounce.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:39
Long Gone Conceding>(Conceding):

No Mas! I quit.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:48
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 02:51
NBA Update>(Update):

The Mailman delivered. It's 2-2, pal.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 03:20
LSU Tiger @NBA>(@NBA):

Anybody remember Pete Maravich? That boy could play

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 03:57
Perfesser @Educating RJ >(@Educating RJ ):

Henry V Act 3 Scene 1: To the breach indeed! FWIW
Shakespeare has much to say about Gold.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 04:26
John Disney>(
To all
Some info on hedging in RSA mines. Vaal Reef has sold
forward about 55% of production over next 4 years at
roughly 1720 to 2600 Rands/once. At current rand rate,
equates to 385$/oz rising to 580 in out year. Western
Deep Levels hedges only about 20% at about the same
rand prices. This info is from the Mining Journal and was
easy to get.

If there is more interest in this, I can probably
get more info, but it will be harder ( old newspapers
kind of thing )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:00
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:00
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):

Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:12
John Disney>(
This mine is very low grade and high cost. It has been
closed for some time. I understand a sustained platinum
price of over 525$/oz would be required to consider
opening it. Also heavy capex would be needed.
Northam would be a better speculation. This mine is
also high cost and unprofitable at prior prices. Now
at prices of over 450$/oz, Im sure it is making money.
It is also really cheap - ( 2.5 Rand ) . My info on Norilsk
is that it only produces half a million ounces plat and
1.5 mil palladium per year. Russians selling twice that
for three years so not surprising if stockpiles exhausted.
Seems everything about Russia has been overstated, ie
their army, their missiles, their platinum group metals,
and presumably their diamonds too.
Also understand automakers will go back to tri
catalists from Palladium catalyst ( this will boost Rhodium consumption
and price of same - ) . Good for RSA as they heavy rhodium
producers, while Russia makes disproportionately high
palladium . Automakers are probably in trouble but they
will lie about that and soon claim to have developed a
new converter that does not require platinum. They may
even buy into the desert dirt BS just to try and
alleviate platinum price problem. Dont think this will
work this time around.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:18
Duncan To: John Disney>(To: John Disney):
Thanks for the Barplats & hedging information John - your'e a scholar,
and a gentleman!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 05:35
Ken Not in Kansas, Dorothy>(Not in Kansas, Dorothy):

Any updates on the lease rate in Palladium and
Platinum? What about Silver and Gold. How are the
precious metals doing?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:45
George S. Cole Russian Gold>(Russian Gold):
August gold up 80 cents a few minutes ago. Steep drop in dollar/yen not having much impact YET.

From today's N Y TIMES:

June 9, 1997

Pristine Russian Far East Sees Its Fate in Gold

In This Article
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

Esso, Kamchatka


SSO, Russia -- The basic view from this mountain village hasn't changed for 7,000
years, since a giant reservoir of molten lava crested over to form the mighty peak of
Asia's largest and most active volcano. Eagles and falcons dance through the crisp air.
Not far away, the world's biggest population of grizzly bears -- shaking off their winter
slumber -- forage for salmon as big as dogs.

There is nothing else in Russia, and little left on earth, like Kamchatka. A peninsula the size of
California, with just one long, partly paved road, it has more earthquakes and live volcanoes --
including Asia's biggest and most active, Klyuchevskaya Sopka -- than anywhere else. Thanks
to its fertile rivers, lakes and seas, the region accounts for nearly half the fish produced in

But while Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, is one of the last pristine places on the planet, it
has been left that way by accident. More than 5,000 miles from Moscow, the region was
protected by the Soviet Union because it was home to a nuclear submarine base in the port city
of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. For decades it was off limits to all but natives, sailors and
fishermen. The staggering wealth that lies beneath the soil -- gold, silver, platinum and more --
has never been touched.

But the temptations have never been greater, because every year Kamchatka draws closer to

There is a way to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr A. Orlov, the chief of the regional
administration's department of Energy, Mineral Resources and Communication. And
everybody knows what it is: we have to dig for gold. I myself want as much wild nature as
possible. We all do. But first of all, people should have a good life. To live here we need
development. Without it we should just turn this place into a wild park or game reserve and
move away. Because if they stay people are going to starve.

The collapse of Communism, hard as it has been on many Russian provinces, has put special
pressures on Kamchatka. Unique in so many ways -- it is, after all, so far east of Moscow that
it is almost west of Moscow -- Kamchatka nonetheless presents the most striking example of
the impossible struggle remote regions face in adapting themselves to the realities of the new

The subsidies, incentives and discounts that Soviet leaders doled out for living in Siberia and
the distant north are gone now and nothing that people did here in the old economy makes
sense anymore. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, where 300,000 of the region's 400,000 people
live and where almost no produce grows and everything must be imported, is among the
nation's most expensive urban areas. Bread here costs three times as much as in Moscow.
Unemployment is nearly 30 percent. In winter an apple costs a dollar.

The fishing industry in the world's largest salmon spawning ground, which accounts for more
than 80 percent of Kamchatka's workers, is buckling under the costs of transporting its catch
back to the population centers in the west. There is no longer any money in hunting because it
costs too much to ship meat. Reindeer breeding, a way of life in the north for at least a
thousand years, is also on the verge of disappearing. The regional government has become so
impoverished it can no longer pay hunters a bounty to kill wolves, which have multiplied
rapidly and decimated the herds. The reindeer herders are often so desperate that they are
forced to kill their animals just to feed their families.

But the pressure to find a way to make Kamchatka prosper competes with the knowledge that
once digging here begins, one more natural paradise will almost certainly be lost.

I am sure there are places on this planet as wild, beautiful and diverse as this, said Yelena
Dulchenko, a geologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. But I just don't know where
they could be. If they dig for gold here they will ruin Kamchatka forever. It will become just
another place that used to be special.

Gold fever sometimes makes debates seems simple, and it would be easy to portray the battle
for Kamchatka as a struggle between those who wish to preserve the earth and those who are
eager to plunder it. But the people here have an obvious reverence for their surroundings and a
strong desire to protect them. They also have bleak prospects for the future.

An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice

oscow can no longer afford to support places like Kamchatka; that much is clear. If it
survives, it will have to find a way to do it alone.

We are forgotten by the federal government, said Gennadi Devyatkin, head of the local
administration in the gold-producing region in central Kamchatka that includes Esso.
Forgotten except when they want our fish. We are a colony and Moscow can only take from
us. At least in the old days they would give us back enough to survive. Not anymore though.

That is why it is no longer possible to ignore the most obvious source of wealth in Kamchatka.
There are from 500 to 1,000 tons of gold here, a figure that, while not enormous by world
standards, could bring in as much as $10 billion.

It's not going to change the world gold market, said Samuel Romberger, professor of
Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines. But it might excite a bunch of Western

That's for sure. Canadian, American and Russian companies have all been eager to get digging
and the fight has already become messy. Many of those who want the region to grow, or at
least to continue supporting humans, say tourism is the only way to do it.

Since the peninsula has 30 active volcanoes and more than 100 that are dormant, one of the
world's great geyser fields ( along with Yellowstone ) , tens of thousands of rivers and lakes,
and every type of animal from sea otter and sable to the world's biggest eagles, tourism seems
to make a lot of sense.

But with no roads, the only way to move about the peninsula is by helicopter. And most
helicopters are controlled by one company. Visiting the Valley of the Geysers -- where more
than 200 geysers spout, bubble and boil into the sky -- can cost $2,000 for a few hours. A
round-trip plane ticket from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to Palana, the northern administrative
center, is $400. Many families don't earn that in a year.

You would need to spend millions of dollars to turn this into a tourist attraction that would
bring more than just the most adventurous travelers, said Gennadi Karpov, deputy director of
the Institute of Vulcanology, the premier scholarly institution in Kamchatka. The two volcano
ranges are wonders of the world. But if you don't have several thousand dollars you can only
see them from far away. You are not going to get thousands of tourists if all we have to offer
them are helicopter rides.

There are few hotels outside the capital Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, in part because the island
is in the center of a major earthquake zone and the cost of building hotels that can withstand
earthquakes is huge.

Fishing is the only industry here to prosper. But many people feel its singular success may
doom it. More than a million tons were hauled from the seas near Kamchatka in 1996 -- a
record catch and one that specialists here feel is too large even for such rich waters. This year
the Russian government permitted quotas that are even higher, though, because with little else
in the way of income fishing is all most people have. That is why so many residents have
reluctantly turned their hope to mining.

Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial

he effects of mining are difficult to predict. New techniques reduce pollution
immensely -- but perhaps not enough to protect Kamchatka. Colorado still has many
streams that are considered toxic-waste sites more than 100 years after gold mining
ended in them. It is not possible to extract gold from the earth without flushing large amounts
of heavy metals -- which are always found near gold deposits -- into the surrounding water.
Fish eat them, bears eat the fish -- and both would suffer badly, as would people.

The ground is wet here and where it is not wet it is cold, said Igor Revenko, a leading bear
biologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. Revenko has been taking a bear census here
for several years, attempting with many other experts from around the world to understand
why this appears to be the best place on earth for them to live.

The conditions here are fragile and unique, he said. This is not Colorado where the ground
was dry. We are not nearly as big as Alaska. Also, we have to look at what we are going to get
if we ruin Kamchatka for a few tons of gold.

Revenko said that the mines here would be exhausted within 30 years -- a figure that regional
mining supporters do not contest. Then, if the natural splendors of the peninsula are affected --
and slight environmental challenges often have major adverse consequences -- the possibility of
using the place as an tourist spot may no longer exist.

Personally, over the long run, Revenko said, I think there would be more money in

This year, in an attempt to protect those areas of Kamchatka that are truly wild and most in
danger, UNESCO put nearly 10 million acres on its list of protected World Heritage Sites. The
legal implications of that decision are not clear, but it has not made everyone here happy.

Everyone has a plan to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr Rechednikov, a 50-year-old hunter
in this town of 300 families. But they are not saving it for me. I can't make a living hunting
anymore. I can't fish. There are no jobs to offer, none. So why don't the good rich people
from everywhere else in the world leave us alone and let us decide what to do in our own

Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On

iktoriya Petrasheva also wishes people would leave the place alone. But her
perspective couldn't differ more sharply from that of Rechednikov. Ms. Petrasheva
lives in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky but she is one of the peninsula's dwindling
number of indigenous people -- a member of the Itelmen tribe, which began its first wave of
eastward migration more than 10,000 years ago. There were 25,000 Itelmen in Kamchatka
when the Russians came in 1697. Today there are 1,000 to 2,000.

My grandfather was executed in 1934, she said. He was accused of being a spy for Japan.
My mother was 6. Her mother was labeled an enemy of the people, -- Stalin's infamous term
for millions who then endured suffering, and usually death. But ever since the Russians came
here we have been enemies of the people. So it was nothing new.

Mrs. Petrasheva is an ethnographer who has studied the fate of natives in Kamchatka -- most
of whom still live in the north, coastal or central parts of the peninsula. Her results are not
encouraging. For centuries the Even, Koryak and Itelmen lived easily in harsh conditions.
They herded reindeer, which provided meat and skins, caught and preserved an endless supply
of salmon and hunted the bears, foxes and sable, whose furs helped them to survive the cold.

Taking a notebook from the shelf, she provided an account of deaths in the native Even village
of Anavgai, just 25 miles from Esso. In 1994, 8 people died there -- out of 300 -- and nobody
was born. She reels off the ages of the dead: 25, 27, 38, 41. In all, 26 villagers have died there
in the last three years -- with two births. There have been one murder and seven suicides. The
reindeer population -- which sustained the village -- has slid from 19,000 to less than 2,500 in
the last decade.

You can't even hope that we will survive as a nation, said Katya Atelkut, a veterinarian,
sitting in the cultural center of Anavgai. Although it is May, all around her snow covers the
hills and mountains.

Maybe we won't even survive at all, she said. People leave if they can. They drink if they
can't leave. And now there is going to be gold. I don't know why, but somehow it is hard for
me to believe we will see very much of it. I don't want to see them dig up the earth. Its all we
have here now, and when that is gone there will be nothing left.

Other Places of Interest on the Web
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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:56
Mike Sheller I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!>(I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!):
The morning review of the past few hours finds an air of expectant tension vibrating through the site. Just a couple of weeks ago there was gloom among the glitterati, with chat about politics and remote viewing keeping the faithful awake. Now there's a glint of metal in everyone's eye. AUROELF: Show me the Soy Meal! Cybercash will ONLY be successful when it becomes an electronic note against an equivalent of gold. Real money is always a real thing - a commodity. It's a Physical World phenomenon. In the end, the fundamental things apply, as time goes by. QT: Good to see you're back in the hot Florida Sun. La Donna e Mobile pretty soon. Loved your opera. I was right under the balcony looking up. Looks like my $240 on the Palladium came faster than we both thought.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 06:57
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
EBN GOld up .25 and Silver up 1 cent; Dollar/ Yen @ 112.69 down 1.93 ( 1.68% ) on fears of Japan's growing trade surplus...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:12
TED @Porpoise>(@Porpoise):
What a beautiful day and many porpoise are now swimming and surfacing right in front of the house...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:18
Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a Katie bar the door feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be stiilig on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:20
Y'All: Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Bart's option quote page gives me a Katie bar the door feeling about the upcoming action this week. It seems like all those who had the ultimate cash cow by selling gold calls may now be sitting on a heard of cash cow carcasses, on the phone to their broker getting hide quotes.

BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
Just getting up from a night a celebrating the Jazz will with a good night's sleep. Morning Ted, I'd give a buck or two to see those porpoises doing their thing. I'll probably just have to watch the wind blow the yukka plants, but then I can do it without a shirt. Here's the joke of the morning.

A little girl says, Grandpa, can I sit on your lap?

Why sure you can, her grandfather replied.

As she is sitting on grand dad's lap she says, Grandpa, can you
make a sound like a frog?

A sound like a frog? Well, sure Grandpa can make a sound like a

The girl says, Grandpa, will you please please MAKE a sound like
a frog?

Perplexed, her grand dad says, Sweet heart, why do you want me to
make a sound like a frog?

And the little girl says, 'Cause Grandma said that when you croak,
we're going to Florida!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:43
EBN Update .>(.):

Last EBN-Dollar at 112.48 Yen.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:48
panda @warning.SHOT!>(@warning.SHOT!):
To All -- Todays Wall Street Journal page C15, top right coner, an ad about central bank sales of gold and their losses! Ad is from Richard M. Pomboy, Pomboy Capital Corp. Things are definitly heating up!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:51
TED @tort>(@tort):
Tort: Hahahahaha...The porpoise are still out there doin there thing....
The Dollar continues to slide against the YEN....

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:54
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Front ( 23:51 ) How true! Guess I just got lucky.......Big Trader: HAHAHAHA
...what a bunch of crap!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 07:56
TED @roto-tilling>(@roto-tilling):
It's that time of off to rent a roto-tiller!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:04
Speed Huh?>(Huh?):
Panda: which WSJ you talking about bro? My page c15 is a Merrill Lynch ad.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:23
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:27
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown):
TED You can borrow mine, but I'm not gonna drive it there! Get a Troy-bilt, great machine.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 08:48
Auric Chompin'@.the.bit>(Chompin'@.the.bit):

Gold will kick the H E double L out of the EMU from
now on. Agreed?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:04
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney ( @Front ) :

@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?

Yea Right !!!! Like , Do I really look that stupid?

I wouldn't dare say it even if it's true you know since they changed the devorce laws in Ontario and now she gets 1/2 automatically. Can't work the market with only ha f t e eyb ard y u n w hahahaha ( :- ) )

Tarnished: You're right about Canadians. Wonder if our American friends remember that until about 5 years ago, EVERY player in the NHL was CANADIAN !!! ( even though MOST were from Ontario haha ) !!!

Ted: When you're done, I've got a bit left here to do also. I'll be out on the Seadoo today so just go ahead without me OK? Thanks....


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:05
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:09
panda @>(@):
Is it me? Are others having trouble getting in this morning? Must be me...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:15
Lan Man COT Update>(COT Update):
As of June 3, 1997, released at 4 p.m. on June 6, 1997, the commitments show commercial insiders long 96,893, short 68,789; speculators long 8,479, short 39,277.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:19
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:29
Mooney @Geff@7:20>(@Geff@7:20):
Geff - I don't quite get your drift. What do you mean by Has anyone else noticed how few GOLD options were quoted last Friday? Do you mean not as many options were traded as per a normal trading day? or that the # of outstanding contracts shrunk? The number of outstanding futures contracts of Gold on Comex was about 157,000 on Friday and the # of Silver futures contracts was about 90,000. These levels seem O.K. to me as a staring point for a rally. Anyone?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:30
George S. Cole gold bottom?>(gold bottom?):
August gold now up 90 cents. Will bullion be able to penetrate the downtrend lines that have contained all rallies since May 1996? My guesstimate -- not now, but quite soon.

AURIC: I do not follow the price of gold in foreign currencies nearly as closely as does THE PRIVATEER. I greatly respect their work; like GLENN they have been cautious for quite some time and still have not called a bottom in terms of greenbacks. But they do argue that it has troughed in Aussie dollars. THE PRIVATEER argues that this is very significant because bullion tends to bottom in Aussie currency before troughing in U.S. dollars.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:31
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Jack: Buy all the gold you can. You will feel very well off I imagine.
As Mr. Pretz said Its going to $20 000. Say hello to Kirk and Scotty when you get there. Buy Mr. Peutz's book for the trip. Rear-tined Troy builts are the best.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:36
Mooney @LanMan!>(@LanMan!):
What contracts are your COT #'s referring too? Thanks.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:36
CB @Fed Up>(@Fed Up):

George s Cole: Re-June 8 update @ Gold-Eagle. Are
you making the case that the same conditions are
present in Gold and Silver as in Platinum and

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:40
George S. Cole open interest>(open interest):
MOONEY: My knowledge of the technical aspects of the commodities markets is not as comprehensive as that of many on this thread, but I do recall that several sources have asserted that sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today.

Low open interest, exceedingly negative sentiment, a 17-month bear market, a stock market now in its final blowoff phase, and the fact that gold and gold shares are incredibly cheap relative to financial assets all augur for a big move up before long.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:45
Silver had a wild ride on the overnight market and first dropped abot 9 cents then shot up about 11 cents and then dropped back down 10 cents so that on N.Y.'s opening it was approximately in line with Friday's close. Very interesting action but Gold and Silver are still in the flat-line mode this morning. Is the Friday and overnight action a precursor to more volatility about to happen? Where's the Shadow?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 09:51
Mooney @Mr.Cole>(@Mr.Cole):
George, that was exactly my thought that ... sustainable gold rallies tend to start when the open interest has fallen to depressed levels. That seems to be the case today. I will get a comment from Friedberg's and get back to the group.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:05
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:07
Mooney-- My comment about the gold options was that hardly any seem to be moving--for some reason. In recent times one could look at the kitco gold option quote board and see at least one trade at just about every $5 increment. I have noticed that not only are very few strikes quoted lately, but also longer time lapses between activity. So, I guess my drift was that very few of the option sellers want to come out and play these days...Could this mean something is afoot?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:16
Speed @work>(@work):
Panda: Thanks, that's probably it. I too have had problems getting in today. Slow DNS connection. Later.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:32
Geff and George - Just checked with my broker at Friedberg's ( commodities ) in Toronto and according to him Alfred Friedberg has not as of yet gotten any kind of bullish signal from the price and volume action in Gold futures and, in fact, is still short, wanting, at this point, to see a move to at least $355 in August Gold before reversing his short positions. This seems a little high to me considering the descending triangle but perhaps he gives a lot of leeway in his stops so as not to get whipsawed by any fake-outs.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:52
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
Is anyone having as much trouble as I am getting in to this site?

speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:56
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


Dear buddy..pal..wonderful person etc. etc. etc. would you please ......

Go to the Kitco active silver options page, grab a line and tell me exactly what each column is saying? I see it but it doesn't even begin to make sence to me.....Thanks old buddy oh pal oh Mr. wonderful etc. etc. etc.


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 10:57
Please disregard last post. Technical problems here, there and everywhere.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:07
Monday morning @11:00 AM and still flatlining in Gold and Silver in N.Y.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:35
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
SWC off after being up earlier, moderate vol.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:43
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
Hello, O Sneaky seller of Houses! A quick look took me about 15 minutes as I've not been there before, but everything looked scookum to me. Except I don't have time to figure out what the Ratio is about right now. Got to go out and shake up the real estate market in T.o. sometime today. :- ) I noticed that the headings at the top have self-explantory notes if you click on them. The strike prices and quotes seemed to jive with my read from the columns in the weekend Financial Post. BTW - My next options seminar takes place at the Inn on the Park on July 15th @ 1:00 p.m. - advance tickets are on sale now for only $99.00! :- ) Seriously, if you still can't figure out after today, e-mail me tonight.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:48
Just noticed the ad for e-gold at vronsky's site. Sounds like it might be
a good idea. Anybody have any experience with it? Any comments?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:53
Speed @work>(@work):
Blanchard & Co. was bought by GE from Mr. Blanchard and then sold to a group of employees. They have very competitive prices.

Spot silver is at 4.78 100 maples=569 100 eagles= 644 100 libertads=513
all cost $10 to ship and insure.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 11:53
auroelf the book>(the book):
Earl: re your Was the issuing agent a govt or some private entity? ( a consortium of each ) Weatherford sees the concept of money currently in transition, with many competing, parallel, overlapping systems of money and value operative, with no single one dominating, and with ever less control over them by nation-states. International electronic transfer is even more out of a nation's control than the food-stamp black market or the trading of frequent-flyer miles. And yes, I am contemplating others' ideas rather than making a case of my own.

Mooney, it pays to step back and weigh outside opinion and differently-biased views against what is said on this site from time-to-time.

Panda, Speed: The southeast regional WSJ also has the Pomboy ad on page C15. And yes, getting in to post here was blocked for a while.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:18
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):

Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:21
Novice @error messages>(@error messages):
Each time I chek Kitco's Near-Live Market Update page, I get an Error Message that necessitates shutting Netscape down. Anyone else with same problem?

Another day of early guarded optimism here in danger of being carried onto a lee shore. Palladium still holding its ground...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:23
Bernie @ca>(@ca):
To all....In case anyone owns a life insurance policy with a Mutual in its
name be prepared to be fleeced. From New York Times, I don't know
how else to say it. The ( Mutual Insurance ) companies are trying to get
into position to rob money from policyholders, said J. Robert Hunter, a
former Texas insurance commissioner.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:23
George S. Cole investor demand>(investor demand):

I am arguing that gold will follow the whites before long despite one huge differnce -- namely the large supplies in the hands of central banks many of which are determined to keep the price depressed. My argument essentially boils down to the assertion that they will not be able to keep the price down up via the traditional routes of cheap gold loans and outright sales when investor demand starts to pick up. And this investor demand should develop when the stock market peaks.

INVESTOR DEMAND -- the lack of it today and the prospect of a big pick-up before long -- is the key to the gold market.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:28
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


I notice that the SEPT PALLADIUM QUOTE is $0.00

Can I have 1 ton ( I'll pay for the freight ) delivered real soon?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:29
nailz Barron's Letters to Editor>(Barron's Letters to Editor):
There are a couple of letters to the editor in Saturdays Barrons concerning supply/demand for silver...You might be interested....

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 12:47
TED @roto-tillerbreak>(@roto-tillerbreak):
Front ( 9:04 ) Will be done in an hour or so and will do your garden next if ya got one of those good Canadian brews fer me...No BUD!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:10
panda @>(@):
auroelf -- Thanks for the confirmation, you saved me the trouble of scanning in the ad and posting it! This Internet 'slow down' is begining to trouble me. Too many are begining to rely on it ( me, sort of ) and I KNOW it is not that reliable. It's the getting between points 'A' and 'B' that's the problem. Lose a few frame relays and you're in trouble! Who said putting every school in the U.S. on the Internet was a good idea?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:10
REB na>(na):
WHAT is happening to the US dollar today? ( Obviously it's down, but why? )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:20
vronsky June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? >(June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? ):
McAlvany’s MELTDOWN OF 97 - Latest chapter: “THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: WILL 1997 BE THE YEAR OF THE DEATH PLUNGE?” CLICK RELOAD at Gold Digest section:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:24
Paris Stock Exchange down 1.2% today:following NYSE before noon,Paris gained up to 1% before making a reversal at noon with 2% loss.Us Dollar also lost 1% against French Franc.
Why?Because the French minister of Economy and Finances,D. Strauss Kahn wants to report the signature of the monetary stability pact for EMU.Before signing anything concerning EMU,French Government wants to renegociate to introduce more social in the current monetary EMU.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 13:56
Bart Kitner (Kitco)>(
We've just put more news from today at http:///news.platinum.html about the Russian Pt/Pd situation.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 14:22
Novice @Pa/Pl>(@Pa/Pl):
Bart: Thanks for information on the Russian Pa/Pl situation...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:40
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:41
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Bart, I like your new format which shows all the vitals at the head of this page.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:58
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat's that in heat !!!!!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:59
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):


What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....

A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat that's in heat !!!!!


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 15:59
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:02
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
Today's gold stock rally unimpressive. Low volume and not much upward movement. Doubt very much that a big move north in either bullion or stocks is imminent. July still looks like it will be a much better month than June for gold investors.

The overall market also may be due for a modest correction. Today's advance narrowly based with little small-cap or mid-cap participation. But the underlying bull trend should continue awhile longer.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:03
Byron @ What!>(@ What!):
Alright, which one of you guys was buying the XAU at the close. Up 1.75 and counting. : )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:11
When I went to pick up some 1-oz. Englehard bars at lunch today, the proprietor told me something very interesting. He said that last year one shipment of what was, I believe, 100 oz. platinum bars that came in from Russia had date stamps of 1938 on them. Sounds to me like they were digging pretty deep into the old stockpiles at that time. Anyone hear anything to confirm that story? TIA

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:11
yellowdog @--------->(@---------):
To: APH, Short Bull, any other TA person that thought XAU was going to mid 90's:
has anything happened yet to change your previous forecasts? might you give us an update?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:12
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
Looks like I was a bit premature in writing off today's gold stock rally. XAU and HUI rallied towards the end of the day to post reasonably good gains. Low volume still troubles me though.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:32
korondy Please@Reply.Here>(Please@Reply.Here):
Read Gold -- The Barbarous Relic -- Strikes Again by John Tompkins at

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 16:48
Lurker 1 home>(home):

Does anyone know a refiner that will take 90% & 40% junk silver coins and melt it down into 999 bars. I can not find phone # or web pages on Johnson Mathey or Englehard.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:16
bw us stocks:>(us stocks:):
This asset class of over 8 trillion dollars is the most visible manifestation of our once in a lifetime credit bubble. Almost every fundamental measure of stock value is at lows never seen in the history of this country. Of course this has been true for some time. Still the market goes up. The top could well be a ways off yet. But the higher we go the risker it gets. This is the message of the fundamentals. The risk in owning stocks is greater now than it has ever been in this country, including 1929. Sooner or later the top will be in and it will be apparent to many that it is time to sell. When that time comes who will be buying?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:36
George S. Cole stock market>(stock market):
BW: Very cogent observations on the U.S. stock market. Looks like it will go considerably higher, but once the top is in the aftermath will be ugly in the extreme. This is the primary reason I am so bullish on gold.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:40
Some interesting stuff from James Stack of Investech.

Over 92% of 4360 mutual funds have failed to match the 8.2% gain in the S&P 500 index in the intial 4 months of 1997. Over 93.6% underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months!

Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11 consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.

I guess Mr. Stack will never understand. Will he? ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:46 Leave Joe Alone>(Leave Joe Alone):

We will sue the appropriate Government Departments for
their crueal attacks on Joe the Camel and _____ gold
and silver if you join us. Please help us defend Joe

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 17:49
George Cole: Are you devoting any personal resources to bear funds? ie Rydex Ursa or a similar vehicle? I have some funds available in a SEP but am torn between putting it on the gold table or betting against the general market. I know gold and gold funds will perform very well but a sharp drop in general equities could produce an equally sharp short term gain in a bear fund as well. The intent of course would be to hold the bear fund for a short term and then switch back into something PM related. Any thoughts?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:03
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Speed: I'm waiting for your mathematical help. If I bought gold at 850 I would have about $350 now. How much would I have if I bought gold when it was $20 and at the same time bought $20 worth of the DOW? A Fourty dollar investment in 1930? What do you think about the concept of opportunity costs?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:05
Stargazer @watching and waiting>(@watching and waiting):
The day of reckoning is at hand. may your decisions be wise.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:23
APH }}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{>(}}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{):
Yellowdog - Nothing has changed other than timing. I'm out of my XAU puts giving back about half of my profits. The rally today is very suspect due to the lack of follow though of the gold funds, FSAGX was down while the XAU had a decent rally not a good omen for the xau, Xau could go as high as 105 tomorrow, aclose above 105 with a strong day up in FSAGX I would start reconsidering. Along with the negative look of xau vs. fsagx.... Aug. Gold is hitting resistance at the down trend line drawn from the 5/12 highs and looks like it wants to go down under 340 which would be a nice finish to a downward wedge.
Bottom line still looking for XAU to trade below 97, front month gold down close to 336 and Aug gold to trade under 340.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:27
WW @New England>(@New England):
The gold and silver mkts are acting peculiar and like they are under compression. Dollar up strong economy friday/EMU and today weak does this mean weak economy and coincidentally bonds weak. The BOYS have so many balls to juggle maybe things will start to go our way. Newsletters and opines give the 1929 vision look possible. With the credit based expansion we have had things have to reverse soon.
Gold and gold stks should zoom when problems hit as they have not risen with equity rise.

What effect will forward selling by gold equities have in a gold bull. Ques? How much hedging is too much?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:30
Speed @work>(@work):
Fundy: If you bought gold at 850, you were incredibly unlucky. It only sold for that price for about 10 minutes. The dow peaked in 1929 at about 385 and didn't achieve that level again until the 1950's. During that time, gold went from $20 to $35 per oz., a 75% gain. My charts are at home so these numbers are from memory ( read that unguaranteed ; ) ) .Many companies went bankrupt during the 1930's and their stock became worthless. I understand opportunity costs, but am unclear as to your point. We can point to periods in history where stocks out performed all other assets, but be careful about the claims that the market has always outperformed gold. It hasn't. Good stock traders make money, just like good metals traders make money. Most of us here are traders, not investors. I fully intend to sell my gold and silver when the price is right. I also trade mutual funds and stocks, so if you're looking for a gold ideologue, I'm not it. I guess my point is that I don't know anyone who buys and holds for 70 years, so these examples while interesting are not realistic.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:35
yellowdog @APH>(@APH):
APH: Thank you for your response. I wish you well in your trading.:- )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:39
Jack Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)>(Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)):

Earl: ( 17:40 ) Great bit of info, relative to Microsoft's
value versus the Big 3, but a sorry state of afairs.
Hope that Gates buys the PM's with some of the profit.
Panda: Pomboy Capital Corp. Letter also in the US
( Western ) edition of Financial Times. He feels that CB's
made about $500 million on sales and leasing, but lost
$170 billion because of the present gold price. He uses
$500 gold to arrive at the $170 billion loss, where he
figures gold price would have been without CB

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:44
panda @>(@):
JDM -- The story is apparently true. It was reported some time ago in the WSJ or Barrons'. I remember reading the articles, there were several appearing regarding the circa 1900 -193X date stamps on ingots out of the USSR. There were also stories about the ingots being .9X fine gold as opposed to the .999+ fine gold that is todays standard. It does indeed sound like the bottom of the barrel is being scraped.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 18:46
Hey Bartman ... good job with the chart ( adding gold and silver ) .

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:09
I believe that the 280/300 will be seen soon in the gold markets.. It appears
that the support will give way.. Weak longs have entered this market because
of the rise in palladium and platinum.. And this has set up the possibility of
stops being set off should the market start to break. There is no inflation,
crude oil has dropped and so has the grains.. Personally I would sell rallies
at this juncture or buy puts..

This is obviously just my personal opinion but I believe the risk/reward for the
longs is more risk..

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:13
Oceanographer Fundy>(Fundy):

Fundy: How are the tides Today

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:27
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Scenario for $5000 gold and Dow 2000

Under the Clinton Administration, the United States government secretly sold the strategic oil reserve to raise money. Later, to cover up, the United States publicly sold the reserve to bring down the price of gasoline but the price of oil didn't go down because the strategic oil reserve had been sold previously.

After World War II the United States asked Switzerland for the gold confiscated from those held in Germany in the concentration camps. It was to be given back to survivors and relatives. Switzerland refused. Case closed until recently when Clinton asked for the gold again. He did not ask for the money value to return to the survivors and heirs of the holocaust victims; he asked for the gold and the United States would receive the gold and pay out cash. Why did the United States need the gold. Were the victims of the holocaust and their heirs being used, as an excuse to attain desperately needed gold reserves?

If the government could secretly sell something as important as the strategic oil reserve, or spend the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund, it is not a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the government could sell secretly its gold reserves. It is rich. Sell the gold secretly and issue paper gold backed by gold that has been sold previously. In fact, based on the world governments' modus operandi I would be far most surprised if most governments had gold reserves. They would be going against the spirit of their own operations if they kept their gold reserves in tact. Why should world governments act underhandedly in most matters but act honestly when it came to gold? The assumption of presently existing government gold reserves is illogical.

Recently German leaders wished to re-value the worth of their gold reserves. There was a lot of commotion and then the German Government decided not to revalue their gold reserves. Could it be possible that when the German leaders could not find those gold reserves when they looked for them.

Recently the United States and other countries have tried to pressure Switzerland to sell its gold reserves onto the world gold market. Why should anyone care? Why Switzerland? Could Switzerland be the last government to hold gold reserves? Could there be no more gold to meet the demand for the physical delivery of gold?

Could a similar scenario have occurred recently with Platinum and Palladium?

Of the large gold sales by Central banks how many have involved the delivery of physical gold?

Could the so-called gold reserves be stated realistically as a MINUS number.

Will the United States again make the ownership of gold illegal?

Will the United States seize the production of U.S. gold mines by buying up produced gold at a set unrealistic price?


Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:29
LB y2k problem>(y2k problem):
I have not seen anyone discussing the y2k problem and it's possible influance on the financial markets. Any opinnions?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 19:56
Byron @ Overnight:>(@ Overnight:):
Dollar weaker overnight. See Scroll down an click on Globex Flash Page for overnight numbers.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:04
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
Market maven George S. Cole believes secular market reversals are near: Financials DOWN & Hard Assets UP, perhaps reminiscent of 1930s & 1970s. Cole Market Insights - Click RELOAD:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:13
George S. Cole misc.>(misc.):
APH: Your negative short-term outlook probably is correct. This XAU rally just doesn't feel right. Low volume rallies are always suspect.

Earl: I do not have any money in Rydex Ursa. I do hope to purchase some S & P 500 puts this summer to profit from the big drop I expect in the fall.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:23
George Cole: I agree with the SP puts. Unfortunately, this is a tax deferred account and cannot do likewise.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:24
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
World shattering metals report gives reason for Platinum & Palladium strength. It proves why same explosive price rise in Gold & Silver will occur - Please RELOAD Digest page:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:27
Comex warehouse gold stocks down today by 7,807 oz to 967,026 oz.

Comex open interest as of yesterday was 159,865 contracts.

ELIGIBLE Comex gold stocks are 285,223 oz to cover the comex open interest. This leaves a 'strong' 1.78 oz of gold available to be delivered for each 100 oz contract!! Read the excellent article 'Two Down and Two To Go on Gold Eagle. It is only a matter of time!

Hi folks, sorry I haven't been here for awhile. I had the fortune of selling my house within three weeks of listing it and buying another within a week and then finding out the the phone company couldn't get me a line for two weeks! Talk about going thru Kitco withdrawal!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:39
TED @front>(@front):
Front ( 15:58 ) The gun is loaded and I'm goin after the case of BLUE....
Where do you live that you can be out on the water at this time of year

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:44
Steve Puetz>(
Mooney: 16-to-1 gold-to-silver price ratio was mostly established by the free markets when supply stood at a 1-to-16 ratio. Over the past century, however, newly-mined silver has been harder to come by than gold. In recent years, the supply of gold-to-silver has dropped to 1-to-8. That suggests than when monetary demand re-emerges for the precious metals, the gold-to-silver price ratio will fall below the 16-to-1 ratio of a century earlier.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:48
Steve Puetz>(
BW: Size of U.S. stock market is $8 trillion as measured by Wilshire 5000 Index. However, if you include all stocks ( including unlisted ones ) , the Federal Reserve estimates the U.S. stock market now has a market value of about $11 trillion. You are correct, the market is much more over-valued now than it was in either 1929 or 1987.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:51
Steve Puetz>(
LB: A newsletter called Remnant Review had a good article on the Y2K problem. I don't have the address or phone number. Maybe someone else out there can help you with that.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 20:57
Arden: Good to see you back. ..... More, I heartily concur with your opinion on the piece by Ted Butler. *Absolutely*, must reading for those who have not. Ted's understanding of the paper metal business is a treasure for those of us who know of it but lack the details. And the devil is in the details, as they say.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:10
TED @exhaustion>(@exhaustion):
Tort: Ya got an incommin missile....and I'm headed fer the easy chair!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:12
TED @forgetfullness>(@forgetfullness):
Forgot to say that EBN Gold is up .60...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:17
Tortfeasor Over and out>(Over and out):
Ted, received your red hot missle. Responded with scud of my own.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:18
Arctic Spirit>(
As featured in the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, CBC, Forbes
Magazine, etc.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:19
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Speed: I bought gold at an average price of $295. I have never thought that the markets always outperformed gold let alone stated that. My 2 points are as follows. 1 ) with regard to Vronsky's comment that the current market looks like 1929-1935. Goldbug's have been told that gold shares were good investments during the '30's. Few know that the good investment was the result of Gov intervention to keep the price up at $20. This was about an average pay for a month. Anyone buying gold must keep in mind that the chances of the US Gov doing this sort of thing again are based in today's reality not that of 60 years ago. 2 ) Gold has been declining from $ 850 to about $350 while $850 worth of DOW about 20 years ago is now worth over $ 3000. Sure many people did not pay that for gold. Put the price at $400 and the argument remains the same. The DOW was much better investment and remains so. I understand that some might think that $850 was a long time ago. Does anyone think that the $1000 or 5000 or $ 20,000 projections are based on the current $350 gold?
While we can cant the virtues of gold here daily the fact remains it has been a terrible investment for the last 2 decades. You may be an trader and many others as well. Others are investors thinking about the store of value myth of gold and the hedge against inflation myth. Anyone who is a trader might as well be trading nickel and the perceived and promoted virtues of gold are irrelevant I agree.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:19
WW @18:27: How much forward selling is too much? ... Any at all is too much! ... ( :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:21
One of US best-known Analysts in last 20 years, James Dines, shares bullish report on Platinum & Palladium - & their impact on Gold. He likes Stillwater Mining. See Editorials:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:24
Arctic Spirit: ( I dint look this time ) .... I think we get the idea. Now. You owe each of us here a genuine original of that hat. OK? ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:24
Noncontributing Lurker @earl>(@earl):

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:26
Tortfeasor Blonde joke of the evening>(Blonde joke of the evening):
Here's for Blonde and all others of the lighter colored hair.

On a plane bound for New York the flight attendant approached a
blonde sitting in the first class section and requested that she
move to coach since she did not have a first class ticket. The
blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm beautiful, I'm going to New York,
and I'm not moving. Not wanting to argue with a customer the
flight attendant asked the co-pilot to speak with her. He went
to talk with the woman asking her to please move out of the first
class section. Again, the blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm
beautiful, I'm going to New York, and I'm not moving. The
co-pilot returned to the cockpit and asked the captain what he
should do. The captain said, I'm married to a blonde, and I
know how to handle this. He went to the first class section
and whispered in the blonde's ear. She immediately jumped up and
ran to the coach section mumbling to herself, Why didn't
anyone just say so. Surprised, the flight attendant and the
co-pilot asked what he said to her that finally convinced her to
move from her seat. He said, I told her the first class section
wasn't going to New York.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:29
Speed @home>(@home):
Fundy: I'm most interested in your #1 point: That the government intervened to prop up the gold price at $20. What facts or reasoning do you offer to support such a claim?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:45

Date: Thu Mar 13 1997 12:34

HERE IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: From January 1959 to January 1995 ( 36 years ) , which stock performed the best: IBM or Homestake Mining ( HM ) ? How come such a dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to make me, that I believe it will also be to most people.

Homestake Mining was the WINNER! It appreciated at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, while IBM came in at a mere 4.5%. The Dow Industrials during the same period was about 5.25%.

I found this quote in my financial readings about a year ago, and just ran across it again today. Interestingly, it makes one think about Wall Street's incesstant carping AND CANTING that common stocks are a better long-term hedge against inflation. My Aunt-Fanny they are! It is NOT just a simple 2.0% per year that HM outperformed IBM for the 36-year period, BUT THAT HM DID 44% PER YEAR BETTER THAN BIG-BLUE!

Who sez dem gold stocks ain't better den common stocks?!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:47
TED @secondwind>(@secondwind):
The Dollar continues it's slide against the Yen and EBN Gold up .50...
Tort: Where is Blonde these days?...and CHEER UP!...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:49
Perhaps, its a function of my overburdened teeny tiny brain cells. So few in number that I am able to identify them by name ... but it still seems to me that Ted Butler's piece on Gold Eagle - Two Down, Two to go is so significant that it should warrant greater discussion among the assembled. If I understand it correctly, ( open to conjecture ) he is describing the destruction of formerly orderly markets as a result of wholesale application of the new 'paradigm'. ie paper is as important as product .... and besides we can create more paper than product.

I wouldn't expect handsprings over the revelation but IMO it is harbinger of things to come for the other two and the last I looked this was a gold/silver site.

Some would probably argue that the thinness of the PGM market made it susceptible to such. I would argue that the number of players are always commensurate to the market involved and, more, since the gold market has such heavy infiltration of politically motivated influences, that the we are still unable to guage the true depth of the potential or grasp the full impact of what is/may/likely to happen. It may be even more devastating ... and profitable for us. ( I am ashamed to say that, forgive me ) .... If I am the only one who thinks its significant, then lets open the SS thread again.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 21:58
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:01
Miro Y2K not so OK>(Y2K not so OK):
LB: I’ve been lurking for a while and I also noticed a significant
absence of any consideration for what impact will Y2K factor have on
financial markets in coming years. Is it because the community does
not know about it or because we do not consider it as an issue?! Though
my master degree is in economics for the last 27 years I do computers
and my economic analysis skills are mostly gone but here are my 2 pennies
worth on Y2K.

I don’t see an economic meltdown as some people predict it but I see
a significant difficulties. I work on Y2K problem and I can say that
a number of companies won’t be ready by year 2000. This will result in
disruption of economic activities, some companies won’t make it ( meaning
going out of business ) for some it will mean reduced revenues. We all
know what news like that do to the market ( e.g. Intel announcement
last week ) .

Y2K problem will start to impact P/L statements by the end of 98 because
accounting rules say that Y2K cost must be expensed instead of amortized
and because auditors auditing financial statements will be held
responsible for detecting and reporting errors and irregularities and
potential difficulties which may have an impact on company performance.
I believe this will be a significant trigger for reinforcing market
meltdown which is predicted to start sometimes in the next two years.

Just to complicated the whole issue, starting in 2001 you will see a
significant amount of litigation activities, class lawsuits, etc..
Litigation cost of Y2K is expected to exceed ( by a large factor ) the
cost of correcting the problem ( estimated to be around $600 billions
worldwide just for information systems not including things like
failing appliances, medical instrumentation, etc. ) . I think that this
will just prolong the bear market following the market collapse.

My question ( and the reason for my lurking ) is how to play this market.
My instinct goes along with many list members saying metals will
experience a significant growth because it may be the only stable
investment which may let you go back into collapsed market when it’s at
its low.

Again, I know more about computer business than about market so this is
just MHO but my retirement from my job in computers ( I am extremely
tired of it ) depends on it.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:04
Kid Silver _>(_):
Steve Puetz - Lets say I have $50,000 to invest.

In your opinion what would be the ideal portfolio?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:07
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- I've been reading the postings for the past couple days without commenting on anything. Most is old news and old dicussions re-hashed. But your most recent posting really brings to mind what BT has been saying/alluding to. At least the way I read them. Given the scenarios currently transpiring in the P metals, the paper and 'loans' on the gold and silver, and given ALL the other pertinent stuff that gets posted here, I really would not be a BIT surprised at the BT scenario being fulfilled! It's a scenario brought on by paper, and it will end with the end of the paper markets. I might add that the paper curency might very well end with it, or at least, nearby in time with it.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:07
Speed back from gold-eagle>(back from gold-eagle):
Vronsky: I just spent twenty minutes searching all over your site and the Captains for that info. I knew I'd seen it somewhere! Thanks.

Earl: No, not that, anything but that ss thread! I bought more silver today, does that count as action taken on 2 Down/2 to go? What happens to this latest surge if Tiger fund sells a million ounces of Platinum and the Russkies shake loose some dinero for their miners and crank up the production line? It seems to me that a roaring economy is the best bet for upward momentum in metals. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Fundy: I hope the DOW goes to 15,000 because those index funds buy mining stocks too. However, if the DOW goes back to 1000, my store of value, gold and silver, will soar.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:14
An additional thought and then its off to the wife's house. .... We really are engaged in world that has evolved to point where millions of bright, exceptional people find there intellectual expression in the design of paper instruments whose only purpose is to separate the 'unwashed' and unsophisticated from their hard won resources.

They produce nothing of value to society or to the greater good of mankind. Indeed, while they are capable individuals, by choice they lack the requisite skills to do so. They cannot wield a shovel and find gold, nor can they program a computer. The only skill they possess is the finely honed ability to convince the rest of mankind that what they say and what they do is truly important. I think not.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:24
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Steve puetz -- Given a scenario of 8-1 vs 16-1, I'll take the 8-1. It'll be TWICE as good! But, regardless, in percentage terms, silver will beat gold hands down!!!!!!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:29
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl -- Amen to that about the paper hangers!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:30
Byron 1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:>(1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:):
The XAU Index poked its head over the 50 Days Moving Average Line. : )

The HUI Index ( American Gold Bugs Index ) did not cross the finish line. : (

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:35
Re: Y2K Re: Y2K>(Re: Y2K):
Miro: Y2K will be a problem for some businesses ( probably govt. agencies .. Do I have to pay tax for the year 2000 since I didn't have any income in 1900 ) . Pretty good consulting gig for those having the skills and the interest in putting in some hours for some easy money ( a lot of helpless people/companies/govt. agencies out there ... )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:39
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Kid Silver -- Your name says it! Silver! Lots of it and as inexpensively as it can be had! Unless you need to travel very light, that's the way to go for leverage. You MIGHT want to add a few yellow artifacts to it if you feel the need to travel with 'cash' of substance. Make sure it's identifiable as to what it is, and that it is fairly easily negotiable in case the 'rainy day' come upon us! IMHO.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:42
QT @>(@):
Vronsky, chill. One advert in the morning and one in the evening is enough. WE ALL check your site on a regular basis anyway. AND EARL,,, I remember buying my way into the cinema, the movies as they were called in those days, with a silver quarter of a dollar. Eat a bag of popcorn I paid a silver dime for. BUT that was a couple years back now. I can't place anything between the dim of these distant memories, and the kitco-now we live in, where I settled, bartered, tendered, or otherwise made good a trade with precious. It is not the curant mode of exchange in cultures of the western world. NOT AT THE MOMENT.
But since things have a way of changing, surprise, surprise, who knows, the day of the dear darlings might yet flourish once again. In the mean time let us not taint the virtue of these sisters with an association to their baser cousin, that ba'dard of the parchment, the Guttenbergers evil spawn, PAPER TENDER. How then can value be attached to their beauty, their rarity, if not with CASH? How can their desirability be measured if not against the arbitration of the collective confidence, you may ask? How indeed. Commerce makes for such strange pillow fellows does it not?
The very foundation of the familiar, the pavement stones of our daily marketplace, the fact of a bank draft, they are all and each calculated in units of currency based on confidence. Your exchanges in every aspect of commercial intercourse with purveyors hawking there beyond the bookjack at your door, they are all settled in CASH. CASH is still king. It enjoys such esteem that even here, in a sanctuary beyond the psychology of the believing mob, it is used as a unit of measure for determining the value of the four sisters.
I find this lacking in clarity. Why condemn the master who allows us such cynicism? CASH is the ruler of this house of dreams and as much as I esteem the little darlings, that every dog has his day, and this too shall pass, that this CASH reality we live in provides the foundation to our relationship to the little darlings. Let us not pretend ottherwise. T'would be less a jest than we are all worthy of.
Mind you my kitco kin, the days of currency are numbered, but then so too, I hope, the percieved relativity between the four sisters and cousin CASH.
If WE cannot hold them to be sacred, how can we expect others to?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// .
PS My only fear for '98 = colesterol and backwardation.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:50
Fundy - You seem to be enjoying the excellent view of an extremely 'high tide'. Have you ever thought about how different your outlook might become when the extreme 'low tide' sets in?
Auroelf - Granted we must all look at the many varied opinions we can gather from 'experts' around the world and then decide which is the 'grain' and which is the 'chaff'. It just seemed to me last night that you were being mesmerized by a spin doctor who specialises in dross. There will always be those who can make the masses believe that 'this time things are different' and that the Emperor is wearing a beautiful suit. The fact that the suit is made of invisible thread will eventually become apparent to all, even the deluded spin doctor himself.
Steve Puetz - You just may have a point there! More than likely that scenario will take about ten-fifteen years until completion, however, and until then I would be happy to see even 20-1 in the next lustrum! ( I can hear the mad scramble for the dictionary's right now! )
Arden- Right On Bro'! ( Also - Good Luck on the move! )
APH - Consistent and usually right!
Korondy - Where ya been?
George - We're waiting with you til the Fall!
bw - Good Read.
Earl - Those statistics are scary and deserve repeating! Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11
consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to
match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto
companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times
Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more
than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.
Gene - Good try but a little too wild.
NotaGoldbug - Your opposing view is at least worth reading compared to some of the B.S. that we have seen.
Ted and Front - Stop trying to make everyone jealous with your 'Life of Reilly' stories! :- )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:52
Paper Hanger @eldon't>(@eldon't):
Eldon't: Get a life and buy some paper! Hi to Earlie

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:54
Steve Puetz>(
Kid Silver: Here's a good mix:
$30,000 in silver coins ( purchase for silver content only )
$18,000 in gold coins ( purchase for gold content only )
$2,000 in December 1997 S&P 700 put options
$50,000 total

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:55
panda @>(@):
Earl -- DO NOT bring back that SS thread! It is like a vampire with a wooden stake driven through its heart. Do Not Remove The Wooden Stake!

In regards to the PA/PL 'paper' problem; I'm glad to see others are giving it quiet thought. It does have profound implications for ALL paper assets. The PA/PL fiasco will be an interesting 'test drive' for paper credibility. The extension of settlement times from two days to thirty? Do they really think the Russians will cough up the metal, just because some shorts need it? Somebody has someone by the short *****, and they haven't let go yet.

An even more obtuse concern would be this; Where would this leave the enviromental groups? Screaming about pollution, no doubt, along with calls for more government action. That could lead to some interesting possibilities. Whither the catalytic converter and oil companies, not to mention the chemical companies. Hmmmm, this thing could have legs.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 22:56
Steve Puetz>(
Miro: I find it interesting that costs associated with fixing Y2K must be expensed out immediately. I understand these costs will be tremendous.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:03
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Mooney: Will do!...Novice:I'll be gettin back at you as I've been busy even though Mooney thinks I live the life of Reilly....what does Mooney know anyhow?...

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:04
panda @zzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzz):
Good night all, perhaps tomorrow will show the real direction of the yellow metal?

George S. Cole -- Agreed that the volume on the mining shares was pretty pathetic today. Most shares seem to be at a half to a quarter of their 'normal' daily volume of a year+ ago. TVX used to trade 1 million shares a day on average.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:09
Steve P. ( or anyone else ) : Where could one visiting Canada buy some Silver Maple Leafs. I believe I read ( I could be wrong ) they can purchased in certain banks

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:13
Didn't Arch ( ie ) Crawford predict tomorrow as a watch day ( positive ) for gold?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:18
Bob M>(
Steve Puetz- am reading your flier for your book that I received today in the mail. How do you feel about genuinely rare, high grade coins as to how they will fare under your scenario. An example would be low population high grade Morgan dollars. Thanks in advance

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:19
RJ Where for art thou, Gold?>(Where for art thou, Gold?):
The following may raise a few hairs. I welcome discourse.

First, let’s ask the most basic. What good is gold? You can’t live in it. You can’t drive it. You can’t eat it. What good is it? The answer is obvious to all; gold is valuable because people think it is. Gold is the IDEA of wealth and, as such, it’s perceived value varies widely with economic conditions.

Many like to talk about the historical power of gold to hold it’s value. This leaves me a bit befuddled. For centuries gold was the same price, it’s value did not change. Inflation was nonexistent so the value of other commodities was also very stable. Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, and there have been times throughout this century when gold appeared to be a hedge against rising costs, although this appearance is deceptive.

There are two aspects of gold we should remember. First, it can be found in almost any spot on earth, it’s not that rare. Second, it is mined for accumulation. An entire mountain of gold resides in bank vaults throughout the world, therefore, gold is becoming less rare with each passing day. If worldwide gold production stopped today, we would have enough gold for industrial uses to last 30 years - and yes, I am including jewelry in industrial usage. Contrast this with PGMs - approximately 2 years and found in basically two places on earth, and silver - approximately 4 - 5 years supply.

Now, lets call a spade a spade. Viewed in inflation adjusted dollars, any gold purchased in the last 18 years is now worth less than what you paid for it. This is undeniable. Not only has it failed to keep ahead of inflation but in inflation adjusted dollars, we are near historic lows. There are many who still cling to the belief that their gold is giving them protection from inflation and, like people who believe OJ is innocent, please don’t confuse them with the facts, they’ve made up their minds. By definition, a commodity can never be an inflation hedge. The price of any commodity may rise during times of inflation but inevitably the price falls to previous levels, while the currency it represents stays inflated.

There are those who will cry, Unfair! Why, in 1900 you could buy a suit for an ounce of gold, and today you can still buy a suit for that same ounce! Anyone that can’t see the inherent flaw in that argument, bought the vest and got the sleeves for free. The problem with these apocryphal little ditties is that they are a shortcut to actually thinking.

Lets transport ourselves to 1980 and ask the question that begs to be asked: Would you rather have I ounce of gold or $463? I am using the low that year to be kind as higher numbers only make the picture worse. On a dollar for dollar basis, at $344 gold today, the answer is obvious, take the cash. Unfair you say? $463 too high? OK let’s take the average low for gold from 1977 forward, $327. The answer is still obvious. That once ounce of gold is still barely worth less today than at almost anytime in the last two decades. When we then take the necessary step of adjusting these dollars for inflation ( assuming 4% annually, which we all know is substantially lower than actual inflation over the last 20 years. ) , the results are staggering. The dollars you paid for that gold are worth less than half of what they were worth in 1980. In real dollars your $327 is now worth $137! So in order to just break even, you would have had to buy your gold prior to 1978 at the low and held it until now. That’s not an investment, that’s a sieve. That’s not protection, that’s robbery.

The modern gold market can really only be traced to 1974 when once again, private citizens could own gold. After a few years to shake things out, and occasion rises, the price of gold has settled at it’s current levels, slightly lower than it’s modern average. As I stated previously, the average low in gold in the last 20 years was $327 ( with an absolute low of $127 ) , the average high was $439 ( absolute high $825 midday, but who sold at that price? ) , with an average price of $383. These averages include the manic highs of 1979 - 1980. If we threw those numbers out the window, the picture is even worse. Remember, the dollars have been inflated forever.

Another expected argument: Yes, but all commodities rise and then fall. This is true, but I do not advocate the buying and holding of any commodity, as many do with gold. The key is to ride the rises and take the profits. What is the purpose of holding?

To debunk another popular reason touted for gold ownership, When the economic collapse finally comes, I’ll be able to trade my gold for a loaf of bread. I don’t know if this is just naive or anyone actually believes, that in times of crisis, gold will buy food. If times are that bad, the only thing that will get bread is bullets. Would anyone trade their family’s food for gold? For that matter, would anyone trade their gun for gold?. For those of you still searching for an answer, please refer to the beginning of this essay.

Lacking an apocalyptic meltdown of worldwide monetary systems, gold will continue it’s dismal performance. In times of true crisis, however, I’d rather have a bushel of corn or a few potatoes.

True, there have been periods when gold has proven profitable, but certainly no more than any other commodity. Lets look at gold for what it truly is, it’s pretty, it’s shiny, and it’s occasionally profitable.

June 1997

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:19
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Paper Hanger -- I DO buy paper! Books, magazines, printer paper, newspapers, napkins, paper towels and toilet tissue. Is there something ELSE?

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:23
Eldorado - I started to respond to your question regarding gold's outlook for 1997. I got sidetracked with the below perspective. I'll get to what's ahead for this year sometime this week. Thanks for your patience.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:26
Steve Puetz>(
Bob M.: I assume the flier you got was from Newsletter Systems, Inc.
What is the phone number it is showing to call to order Total Collapse? Some people have been having trouble getting a connection.
Buy gold coins for their monetary content only. Don't buy collectibles.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:28
aurator @Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!>(@Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!):
Steve Puetz: What, no dry powder

Y2K I too work in computergeekland. Yes Y2k will be a problem for almost all large financial institutions and gov depts. It may well have an additive effect with MILLENIAL FEVER on crowd perception of stability of these institutions. This will ultimately be good for goldbugs.

What if I can't trust my bank statement/insurance/tax record/whatever

Ain't this rather like a scriptural armageddon? Doubt and uncertainty?

Who can ye trust? ( ingotwetrust )

Millenial fear and fever ought not be underestimated either. We do not have to wait until Y2K to start to see the effects of this. To those with eyes to see the effects are already visible.

If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs
And blaming it on you......

( Rudy Kipling )

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:30
Bob M>(
RJ- you are absolutely correct in your analysis, gold has been the worst possible investment over the last 17 years, no denying that. The demand side of the equation has not been there, and that is what a commodity needs to drive it up. Gold is driven by fear, fear of financial collapse. As long as that does not happen, I see gold trading very narrowly. A move like the late 70s is probably only likely if the financial markets tank, coupled with a threat of a major war, and commodity supply lines threatened. Enjoyed your writing!

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:35
Bob M>(
Steve Puetz- the phone # they give is 888-639-7587... I try to buy coins that have a fundamental reason to rise in value because they are genuinely rare coins. My thuinking is that under your scenario, everything will go down, nothing will be exempt. But items that are scarce now, will always be scarce, so in relative terms, the intrinsic value will be similar. Just like the Mona Lisa, in the depression its relative value did not drop as the rarity kept the value constant.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:38
Steve Puetz>(
RJ: You are wrong on may counts. 1st -- Inflation isn't just a 20th century phenomena. The first great paper inflation occurred in China about 1000 years ago, and it ended with a massive economic collapse. 2nd- Gold is a store-of-value. 3rd -- It can be sub-divided. 4th -- It does not rot. 5th -- It does not burn. 6th -- It does not depend on someone else's monetary promise. That is, gold has many qualities that other commodities and other monies do not posess. In an era of increasing defaults ( world-wide ) , the monetary safety of gold seems, not only preferable, but most prudent.

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:39
Hello Folks, I don't post here often but did at the bottom of the platinum market late last year to prompt you to my PGE report.

You may want to have a look at Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver, a hidden
gem that could soar in this platinum market. I am also now picking nickel to rise significantly. The strike at Inco will be a long one. Bet on it. A few more ounzes of platinum production will be gone as well.

I have been very successful at picking market bottoms in mining stocks
and metals. Maybe I'm just lucky, perhaps you want to follow my luck? Last year, I stated, that the Sumitomo affair has caused a bottom in copper and it would rebound. My two junior copper picks soared, Western Copper from $1.15 to $4.05 and Corner Bay $0.70 to $1.32.

In November 1996 I wrote a special report on platinum that it was at a
bottom and the time to buy is now. This is a piece from my report on a few things mentioned about Russia

Russia is in shambles and the mining industry is half of what it used to
be. Miners are working months without getting paid. Equipment is outdated
and in need of repair. A huge bureaucracy, political fighting and organized crime all add to the problem.................... Most likely Russia is almost out of platinum, just as they are gold. It could be this year or perhaps next that Russian sales will likely fall off. This alone could cause platinum to explode upwards.

With platinum soaring needless to say our platinum plays heve done very
well except one unknown yet, Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver. I think this
could soon change because PHO has an excellent platinum property and I just talked to them on June 7th and they will begin drilling in about 10 days. I originally thought PHO would get on the property last year but they didn't raise the $$ in time. As it turns out it looks like this was a blessing considering todays hot platinum market

The property was held private since Newmont was forced to give it up in
the 1980s despite excellent drill results ( I bet they wish they had it now ) .The property was just moved into PHO in 1996. If platinum is still up or higher as I expect when PHO releases platinum drill results this stock could soar. It is just trading around $0.40 ( little downside risk ) and has a nice silver property among others. You can view my platinum report and more about
PHO at my website

Call Dick Lonsdale at PHO 604-689-9960 Fax 604-684-3499

Good luck to all and don't forget to get a position in the nickel market

Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 23:49
I wish to declare that July 1st will become
National Buy an Ounce of Gold Day.

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